exploring management options for more resilient and efficient systems southern region extension...
TRANSCRIPT
Exploring management options for more resilient and efficient
systems
Southern Region Extension Climate Academy (SRECA)
September 3-5, 2014Athens, GA
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Source: Gitz and Meybeck, 2012
Instead of being vulnerable we should increase the capacity to prevent, cope with risks and recover from shocks
Reduce
Reduce1 2 3
of systems
How we can increase resilience
DroughtInsect
breakout
Climate of the Eastern US A. ENSO – El Niño phase
Winter
Summer
El Niño does not run to the calendar year - some events last >> 12months
Above average sea surface temperature (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific
High influence on Winter and
Spring climate
Climate in the Southeast B. La Niña phase of ENSO
Below than normal sea surface temp. (SST) across the eastern tropical Pacific
Winter
Summer
- Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI): A monthly quantitative index based on six variables of: sea-level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, and total cloudiness fraction of the sky.
Climate Forecast – ENSO Indices
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
Precipitation Anomalies (in)1996 - 2013 vs. 1950 - 1995
March April
May July
http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/
ENSO phase Rainfall Differences Tifton Co. South GA
Climate Risk Tool
South GA
North GA
If we know the ENSO impact on climate variables, can we manage the crop based on those differences?
What management practices you will advice farmers to adjust/modify?
http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/
Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat
Management Strategies in the Southeastern USAENSO and Wheat Yield Differences
http://agroclimate.org/tools/County-Yield-Statistics/
AgroClimate Tool
Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat
Management Strategies in the Southeastern USAENSO and Planting Date Related Yield Losses
The highest yield penalties associated with delayed planting could be expected during the La Niña phase (warmer winter) rather than the El Niño , especially for southern counties.
(4 wks later)
Tifton, GA
http://agroclimate.org/tools/Planting-Date-Planner/
Wheat varieties yield of different maturity groups (Early/Late) by ENSO phase
Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat
Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA
North GA Central West GA
Under La Niña, early maturity varieties (early heading) had greater yield than late maturity at the Southern locations (Plains, GA) compared with the North (Calhoun, GA).
Under El Niño, late maturity varieties had greater yield than Early maturity at the most Northern locations (Calhoun, GA).
ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation
ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences Yield losses and HF Infestation
Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat
Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA
HF infestation was higher duringLa Niña than El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).
Higher infestation for susceptible varieties (compared to resistant) was observed for La Niña, therefore higher yield losses.
Georgia
ENSO and Hessian Fly infestation
ENSO phase HF Infestation Differences
Use of the ENSO Forecast for Adapting Winter Wheat
Management Strategies in the Southeastern USA
HF infestation was higher duringLa Niña than El Niño with increased occurrence closer to the Coast (Plains site).
Georgia
The HFI prediction model was based on:
- Temperature and Precipitation of Aug-Sep (TAug-Sep, PAug-Sep) and Oct-Feb (T Oct-Feb, P Oct-Feb) periods PLUS- Change in wheat area in the preceding year (ΔWA)
HFIPGriffin = 0.012ΔWA + 0.045PAS – 0.017POF – 5.574TAS + 3.139TOF + 112.3
Plains, GA
ENSO phase Rainfall &
Temperature Differences
http://agroclimate.org/tools/climate-risk/
Plains, GA
Climate Risk Tool
Adaptation Strategies
http://www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/extension-resources/