expecting the unexpected: anticipating and prioritizing

Expecting the Unexpected: Anticipating and Prioritizing Risks on a $150M Construction Project

October 2, 2013

CA-NV AWWA Conference

Sacramento, CA

Phillippe Daniel

Mike Munson

CA-NV AWWA 2013 Fall Conference

An ounce of prevention is worth

of pound of cure Minority Report

The Pre-Emptive Doctrine

Know unknowns and unknown

unknowns

A stich in time saves nine


Overview of Risk Process

Considered each project element

Evaluated improvement sequence

Engaged key stakeholders

Identified and rated risks

Developed mitigation strategies

1. PROJECT ELEMENTS Considered each project

element






Existing Rinconada Water Treatment Plant


Major Process Elements

Increase capacity from 80 to 100 MGD

Add raw water ozone

Convert upflow clarifiers to horizontal flocculation-sedimentation

Replace existing filters

Add Chlorine Contactor

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Design Construct


Selection of The New Process Treatment Train Was Driven by Risk Considerations

• Ability to treat highly variable source waters in an operationally stable manner.

• Address public concerns including taste and odors and other contaminants

• Reliable and proven technology rather than “bleeding edge”


Rinconada Water Treatment Plant circa 2019


Implementing the Improvements Requires Addressing Different Risks

• Rinconada is the critical supply to the entire west side, so will remain in operation during construction.

– Constrained site with both on-going operations and construction

– $150M construction with significant demolition and concrete pours

• Neighbors border the plant on three sides.

• Environmental considerations include trees, birds, etc.

• Safety concerns exist both on-site and off-site.

How to minimize impacts while meeting short-term and long-term objectives?

2. IMPROVEMENT SEQUENCE Considered each project

element





3. KEY STAKEHOLDERS Considered each project

element






Stakeholders Represent Different Priorities and Perspectives

District Staff

Regulators

Neighbors

Contractors

Retailers

District Board

Operations Maintenance Engineering Environmental


Stakeholder Diversity is Beneficial for Risk Identification

• Perspectives on risks rooted in past experience

• Varying focus of responsibilities leads to different spheres of concern (e.g., engineering design, operations, project management, etc.)

• Can stimulate identification of additional risks

• Helps avoid “groupthink”

4. IDENTIFYING AND RATING RISKS Considered each project

element






Step 1 – Initial Risks Identified

• 27 separate risks

• Span entire project schedule from design to start-up

Design Phase Construction Phase Operations Phase


Some Representative Risks

Risk Consequence

Traffic accidents Schedule, costs, claims, poor public relations

Other injuries on-site Schedule, costs, claims, poor public relations

Disruption of service Water supply outage

Contractor unawareness of site-specific risk issues

Delays, claims, safety, water supply outage

Water quality incident Public health and reputation


Step 2 – Development of Scales for Likelihood and Consequences


Probability Rating Guidelines


Impact Rating Guideline


Step 3 – Risk Assessment

• Select project team members completed risk assessment by rating the impacts and consequences of various risks on cost and schedule.

• Results were analyzed separately as well as the overall average.

• Sensitivity analysis was conducted

• Initial reporting of results to clarify differences in ratings and to revisit scales.


Step 4 – Sensitivity Analysis and Deliberation

Highest Rated Cost Risk Greatest Variability in Scoring Risk

Disruption of Service Disruption of Service

Adversarial Relationship with Contractor Bidding Climate Change

Other Injuries on-site Optimization Difficulties During Start-Up

Traffic Accidents Decisions Delayed or Reversed

Contractor Unaware of Site-Specific Risks Unintended Consequences of Shutdown

Water Quality Incident Water Quality Incident

Optimization Difficulties During Start-Up Traffic Accidents

Marginally Qualified Contractor Marginally Qualified Contractor


Step 5 – Ranking Key Risks

Cost-Related

Disruption of Service

Water Quality Incident

Traffic Accidents

Other Injuries on-site

Marginally Qualified Contractor

Contractor Unaware of Site-Specific Risks

Adversarial Relationship with Contractor

Optimization Difficulties During Start-Up

Operations during

construction

Safety

Quality and cost of

construction phase

5. MITIGATION STRATEGIES Considered each project

element






Mitigation Alternatives Developed for Priority Risks

Highest Rated Cost Risk

Mitigation

Disruption of Service

• Conduct adequate review of as-builts and supplement with potholing; consider construction complexity near “live” parts of plant and consider alternatives.

• Special coordination considerations for peak plant flow conditions. • Develop special contingency plans for emergency operations

during construction.

Adversarial Relationship with Contractor

• Partnering meetings early. • Vigilance as to any staffing issues and request changes rapidly.

Other Injuries onsite

• Specify safety protocols, regular coordination meetings between contractor and District operations.

• Protocol for operator shifts starting after days construction activities are ended.

• Special attention to high risk activities (e.g., arc-flash).


Safety and Traffic


Construction and Operations Traffic a Key Consideration

• Increased traffic in neighborhood associated with construction.

• Of particular concern is the uphill left turn into plant.

• Concern over avoiding collisions both outside and inside the plant

6. CURRENT STATUS


Project is at 30% Design

• Evaluating mitigation strategies

– Pre-qualification phase for contractors

– Best traffic safety options

– Detailing specific coordination plans with operations and other projects at site

– Defining on-site parking/office/lay-down

• Working on environmental documents

• Conducting 3rd party constructability review

• Continuing public outreach

• Updating risk register

QUESTIONS

expecting the unexpected: anticipating and prioritizing

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