examining threats of violence and opportunities for peace in the 2015 elections of nigeria ifeanyi...
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Examining Threats of Violence and opportunities for peace in the 2015
Elections of Nigeria
Ifeanyi OkechukwuIfeanyi Okechukwu
National Network Coordinator, WANEP-NigeriaNational Network Coordinator, WANEP-Nigeria
Presentation Outline • Preamble
• Developed Indicators for Risk Analysis by WANEP
• Scope/Limitations
• Analysis of Election Risk Factors to 2015
• Scenarios
• Opportunities
Preamble
“ Elections without integrity are elections that do not allow citizens a credible safe and fair means of choosing their leaders and the policies they pursue through a peaceful institutional mechanism”
Kofi Annan. 2015
Preamble contd…
“ 2015 general elections in Nigeria are particularly significant in their potential to be the first truly contested elections featuring a viable opposition since the transition to civilian rule in 1999”
Africa Indepth. www.africapractice.com
Preamble contd…
The Flip side:
The electioneering process has raised an unusually level of tension across the country, with competing claims to the presidency along ethnic, religious and social lines…
Insecurity in the North East
Postponement of the Election
Public fear that the elections will be followed by greater degree of widespread violence in comparison to the 2011 post elections with grave implication for unity and security of the country.
Various predictions have emerged that suggests that Nigeria’s survival as a nation is dependent on how political actors and stakeholders conduct themselves before, during and after the general elections of 2015
Developed Indicators for Risk Analysis by WANEP
WANEP-Nigeria through its National Early Warning System (NEWS) embarked on a monitoring and analysis of risk factor that has potentials of destabilising the polity and creating widespread violence in the scheduled general elections in July 2014.
Developed Indicators for Risk Analysis by WANEP contd…
A total of 21 broad based indicators that highlights observable actions that raise violent threats were monitored and reporting on to generate a trend of risk factors and an understanding of the relationship between the indicators in reinforcing the predictions of widespread violence during and after the elections
Scope/Limitations
• Data are generated from just 26 states, the selection was based on the presence of existing monitors of WANEP NEWS. Some hot spot were initially excluded –Borno, Yobe etc and some gaps in data are evident.
• Data are not gathered from survey but a weekly monitoring of evident or reported incident.
Scope/Limitations
• This analysis represents aggregated 6 months data of reports (July to December 2014) some more development since then.
• A total of 324 reports were received from monitors.
• 5 out of the 21 indicators were selected for deeper analysis in this report.
Analysis of Election Risk Factors to 2015
• Negative or inciting statement made by political
actors reinforces violent emotions, division and
polarization of the polity.
A personalised, ethnic or religious campaign that
denigrates/dehumanise candidate fuels sentiments
among supporters that aggravates tensions with
likelihood of violence. The 2011 post presidential
violence is traced to inciting statement attributed to
candidates prior to the elections.
the pattern of current campaigns especially
attributed to political parties, and aspirants
have contributed to the existing tensions and
‘mirrored’ response that heats up the polity
•The media and social media is a vehicle
• Proliferation and use of SALW by unauthorized
persons is a threat to violence-free election.
• On-going Insurgency, ethnic/communal
violence…loss of border control.
• Poor regulation of local arms production increases the
likelihood of small arms misuse across communities. IED
• Lack of database of weaponry of security agencies
• Illegal arms use and proliferation is higher during political
transitions around electioneering process.
Increased sentiments and polarisation fostered by
various political interest groups in a bid to
intimidate or suppress dissenting voices have
increased incidents of misuse of arms.
• The controversies and protests on the collection of
Permanent Voters Card (PVC) increased agitations over
the implication of disenfranchisement of registered
voters and violence during the proposed elections.
• Some inciting statements that non-availability of card is
deliberate and political
INEC’s defence that card is available but owners
not willing to pick it up
Destruction of Party Secretariat and other structures
Prioritized Risk: Destruction of party secretariat and other structure
• The 6 months monitoring and reporting shows increasing levels of
direct attack by parties on opposition’s existing structures or
secretariat.
• Attacks in form of destruction of a party property, the defacing of
billboards and campaign structures e.t.c.
• Attacks escalated since the beginning of 2015 leading to -
destruction of vehicles, attack on convoy, bomb explosions at
rallies and burning of party secretariats etc.
Prioritized Risk: Escalation of Unresolved Conflict
• The tensions and escalating violence has been
closely linked to the polarisation of the polity along
ethnic and political lines. North vr South.
• Activities of political groups are reinforcing the
escalation of existing violent conflicts across the
states
• The availability of mobilised armed/militia groups
(Ombatse, Area Boys in Sokoto, Lagos, groups in Rivers
e.t.c.) is a catalyst for widespread violence.
• Benue and Nassarawa have been experiencing vicious
cycles of violence between different ethno-relgious
groups shows possible political manipulation/undertone
Scenarios
If Jega is forced to go on terminal leave…
Scenarios contd…
If millions of Nigerian claim disenfranchised on the basis of non receipt of PVCs
Scenarios contd…
If the National Assembly supports the formation of Interim Government…
Scenarios contd…
If the Court rules against the qualification of General Buhari to contest elections…
Scenarios Contd…
If Temporary Voters Card (TVC) is permitted for use on the basis of public protest…
Some Worse Cases…
Accusations and counter-accusations between the ruling party and
main opposition regarding the postponement of the election
degenerates into polarization along regional, religious and ethnic lines;
the credibility of the election is put to question and any move by the
election management body is viewed from a biased perspective among
the key actors. The conduct of the election is further made difficult by
the security situation providing the grounds for the current
administration to seek a 6- month interim arrangement; the public is
inflamed by this request and demonstrations and violence erupts in
various parts of the country – WANEP Policy Brief 2015
Worse Case contd…
The rumors that began before the postponement of the election that
the postponement is merely the first phase in an elaborate attempt to
prevent some candidates from contesting the presidential elections
continues to influence the opposition and some quarters of the country;
proliferation of arms that is already rampant in some parts of the
country due to the activities of militants and insurgents is further
mobilized and raises the likelihood of violence. Any pronouncement
that is not in tandem with the expectations of the opposition sparks
uncontrolled violence in various sections of the country
- WANEP Policy Brief 2015
A Best Case…
INEC leverages on the postponement of the election and ensure that more
eligible voters collect their Permanent Voters Card; INEC continues the
process of voter education and training of INEC ad hoc staff towards
ensuring increased synergy between them and all major stakeholders
including political parties, security operatives, international observers and
CSOs; International observers remain committed to monitoring the
electoral process; elections are held in atmosphere of transparency,
adjudged credible, free and fair with all parties accepting its outcome. A
government is inaugurated on May 29th and Nigeria demonstrate its
leadership in the region through a widely acceptable election and
democratic process - WANEP Policy Brief 2015
Opportunities…
Publicity and mass sensitization by INEC, National
Orientation Agency, CSO e.t.c.
Opportunities contd…
• Strict prosecution of persons who are culpable
of incitement and disruption of public peace and
safety.
• Strict regulation of local arms production and
control of cross border movement and
proliferation of small arms and light weapons
Opportunities contd…
Winning the ‘war’ against Boko Haram
Opportunities contd…
The National Broadcast Commission (NBC)
should be alive to its responsibility of
censoring recalcitrant media institutions to
discourage the use of their platform for
incitement into violence
Opportunities contd…
Increased engagement of the Inter-Party Committee (IPAC) to facilitate dialogue on non-violence between political leaders in an attempt to douse tension and get the commitment of these leaders to devolve peaceful engagements across their party structures
Opportunities contd…
Be conflict sensitive in their utterances to forestall situation where such utterances can be perceived or interpreted as incitement against public good
Opportunities contd…
With the absence of National or State level Peace
Infrastructure to address tension and grievance
during and after the elections, ECOWAS, EU etc.
to identify and engage non-partisan, Nigerian and
Non-Nigerian opinion leaders with the capacity to
influence the leadership of the political parties to
allow peaceful resolution of possible grievances
Thank you for the privilege
About the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding
WANEP
Established in 1998 as an organised civil society response to violent conflicts in the region.
Operational framework –
Networking for conflict prevention and peacebuiling
WANEP is the first CSO in West Africa with a
regional network of national chapters with physical
presence in all the15 member states of ECOWAS
WANEP currently has a membership of over 550 CSOs and CBOs across West Africa and 120 in Nigeria
Core thematic focus:
Early Warning
Women in Peacebuilding
Peace Education
Mediation and Dialogue
Peace Education
• WANEP is the Civil Society representative for West Africa at the level of AU Economic, Social and Cultural Council (ECOSOCC) General Assembly and belongs to the Peace and Security Cluster of the ECOSOCC as well as enjoys a consultative status with the UN.
• WANEP-ECOWAS Partnership – ECOWARN since 2002
• Member of the Mediation Support Network
• Past Chair of the Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict (GPPAC)
Opportunities for internship at WANEP
3 Categories
1.Paid Internship
2.Non Paid Internship
3.Institutional Partnership
Thank You