examining potentials for future of mobile internet laura männistö 9 february 2000
TRANSCRIPT
Examining potentials for future of mobile Internet
Laura Männistö
9 February 2000
Source: Ericsson.
Fixed
Mobile
Fixed Internet
Mobile Internet
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1200
1350
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Subscriber Growth(M
illi
on
s)
Minutemigration
Agenda
• Drivers to mobile Internet
• Challenges to mobile Internet
• Some potential application areas
• Examples
GOVERNMENT & RESEARCH
GOVERNMENT & RESEARCH EMAILEMAIL
WORLDWIDEWEB
WORLDWIDEWEB WIRELESS / MOBILE
INTERNETWIRELESS / MOBILE
INTERNET
Today
EMBEDDED INTERNETEMBEDDED INTERNET
Source: Motorola.
Internet Waves
Drivers for mobile Internet
• Meteoric growth of the Internet and mobile communications
• Increasing mobility• New applications, services and
business models• Enabling technologies
87%
52%
6%Telephone
lines
Cellularsubscribers
Internethosts
Annual growth 1990-1999
Mobile Evolution
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1999, adapted from Matsushita Communication Industrial Co, Ltd.
Satellite
MacrocellMicrocell
UrbanIn-Building
Picocell
Global
Suburban
Basic TerminalPDA Terminal
Audio/Visual Terminal
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Development Report 1999, adapted from European Commission (DGXIII).
3G (IMT-2000) Network Architecture
Digital Services Vision
0
32
64
9.6
128
144
384
2,000 1G 2G 3G
VoiceVoice
Text MessagingText Messaging
Video StreamingVideo Streaming
Still Still ImagingImaging
Audio StreamingAudio Streaming
Da
ta T
ran
sm
iss
ion
Sp
ee
d -
k b
ps
ElectronicNewspaper
RemoteMedical Service(Medical image)
Video Conference(High quality)
Telephone (Voice)
Voice Mail
E-MailFax
ElectronicPublishing
Video on Demand:Sports, News Weather
Karaoke
Video Conference(Lower quality)
JPEG Still Photos
Mobile Radio
Viideo Surveillance,Video Mail, Travel
Image
AudioVoice-driven Web PagesStreaming Audio
DataWeather, Traffic, News,Sports, Stock updates
Mobile TV
E-Commerce
Source: Motorola.
Lots of Questions: Wireless Internet?
• Where is the demand?
• How to segment?
• How to classify?
• What price?
• What interface?
• Which standards?
• What kind of value chain?
• Which business models?
Demand: Characteristics of applications
• Personal• Location-based• Simple• Action-oriented
WirelessBusiness
Subscribers
WirelessConsumer
Subscribers
Intranet Hosted
Applications
Internet Hosted
Applications
Segmentation: Subscriber - Application
Interfaces
Which standards? - An alphabet soup
• SMS• GSM• WAP• GPRS• W-CDMA• W-LAN
• i-mode• XML• Bluetooth• EPOC• Jini• VXML
Ready to WAP?
• 37 operators announced WAP services in January 2000
• WAP will not be significant before GPRS packet switching and always on features
• WAP likely to be an interim technology
“Where Are the Phones”
“Wait And Pay”
Mobile applications
• Person-to-person (communications) services
• Mobile office (business) services
• Mobile E-commerce services
• Travel/location based services
• Entertainment/leisure services
• Telemetry (machine-to-machine) services
Person-to-person (communications) services
• Messaging (voicemail, SMS, e-mail, unified messaging)
• Computer Telephony Integration
Mobile office (business) services
• Internet/intranet access - browsing, file
transfer
• Corporate groupware / PIM synchronization
• Real-time support (expert-on-line)
• Remote diagnostics / maintenance
• Collaborative working (tele-prescence)
Mobile E-commerce services
Shopping
Ticketing
Gambling
& auctions
Banking
Trading
Source: Adapted from Ericsson.
Travel/location based services
• Timetable, schedule info
• Traffic information
• Yellow pages, intelligent directories
• Navigation services
• Tourist info / virtual tour guide
http://www.citikey.com/
Entertainment/leisure services
• News, sports, weather updates
• E-magazines
• Audio-on-demand
• Video-clips-on-demand
• Interactive games / gambling
• Health advice and information
• Education, training
Telemetry (machine-to-machine) services
• Remote monitoring & control• Data acquisition & metering• Remote or temporary E-POS• Surveillance• Traffic telematics (route guidance,
tracking etc.)
Additional services
• Security for mobile commerce
• Billing solutions for mobile commerce
Application Revolution
Traditional Application Portfolio
Access
Access
And
More
Access
Click-N-CallInteractive Chat
Surf-With-MeVideo Conferencing
Micropayments
Virtual Second LineUnified Messaging
CollaborationPersonal IVR
CD Quality SoundVideo Answering
MachineVirtual AssistantsOnline Directory
Worldwide ForwardingToll Bypass
QoS DifferentiationRemote Access
CoS DifferentiationInternet Voice Mail
Transaction
Productivity Enhancemen
t
Cost Savings
Next-Generation Application Portfolio
Source: USbancorp Piper Jaffray.
(Finland)
http://www.iobox.fi/
http://www.seprobilling.com/
(Ireland)
(Ireland)
http://www. jinny.ie
http://www.oz.com/
(Burlington, MA; Iceland, Sweden)
http://www.smallplanet.fi/
(Finland)
http://www.ztango.com/
(Finland)
http://www.moremagic.com
(Finland, United Kingdom, Germany)
http://www.wannago.com/
(Sweden)
http://www.acrosswireless.com
(Sweden, Hong Kong, Richardson USA)
http://www.icomera.com
(Sweden)
http://www.akumiitti.com
(Finland)