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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REPORTPakistan Pharmaceutical Market

The report is for the exclusive use of the recipient and may not be reproduced in anyform without the written consent from IMS. The information contained in the report isconfidential and may not be divulged to any other party. Copyright IMS AG, ZUGSwitzerland 2011

1st HALF 2012


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Executive Summary Report

Pharmaceutical Market


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Foreword by Dr. Aman Ullah Khan 04

World market

Company News in Brief 06 Global Pharmaceutical Sales 17

Pakistan Pharmaceutical Market

Market Overview 18Commentary 33Medical Index of PAKISTAN facts ..40

Tables 43

Clients Feedback Form

FEEDBACK FORM 51


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FOREWORD

We are once again proud to present you the 1st semester of 2012

Executive Summary report based on Q2 2012 with analyses of thePakistan market. The importance of this report has been highlighted by

our respected clients who have time and again requested for this report.

IMS Health has always offered accurate, authentic & valuable market

insights to the Pharmaceutical industry through this report and has playedan important role in delineating the industry trends.

We would however, appreciate your valuable comments in the attachedfeedback form enabling us to further improve the quality and contents of

this report.

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Aman Ullah Khan

Chief Executive

Tel Off: 021-34315148 / 34383700

E-mail: [email protected]


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WORLD MARKET


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January 2012

Corporate Developments

Both the EMA and FDA approved Sanofi/Genzymes Framingham manufacturingplant, allowing production of Fabry disease therapy Fabrazyme to recommence.Thirteen major manufacturers began an alliance with the WHO and non-profitorganisations to provide free treatments for neglected tropical diseases.

Actavis said it would shake up the global diabetes market via the formationof a joint venture with Bioton for the development of insulins, includinganalogue insulins.

Following its acquisition of Nycomed, Takeda said it would be consolidating itsR&D sites, changing to a more diverse portfolio focused on new products, andlaying off approximately 2,800 employees (2,100 in Europe and 700 in the US);the plan is expected to reduce income by 35bn in the financial year to March2012. Novartis is cutting 2,000 jobs in the US linked to the patent expiry oftop-seller Diovan this September and will take a $900m charge related to

reduced sales expectations for newer antihypertensive Tekturna/Rasilez. Itannounced an agreement to resolve the US class action litigation regardingunpaid over-time by sales representatives, providing up to $99m to be sharedamongst eligible class members.

Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay $158m to settle a case regarding thealleged improper marketing of antipsychotic Risperdalin Texas. The companywas also reported to be changing the executives in charge of its Tylenolunit(McNeil Consumer Healthcare), following the string of recalls in 2011.GlaxoSmithKline was fined by an Argentine court for failing to obtain properparental consent during a trial of pneumonia vaccine Synflorix.

Mergers & Acquisitions

Amgen entered into a $3.6bn merger agreement with Micromet, a German/USbiotech with a Phase II antibody for haematological malignancies, while Bristol-Myers Squibb is to acquire Inhibitex for $2.5bn, to expand its presence in thehepatitis C market. Watson bought Strides Arcolabs Australian and south-east Asian generics business, Ascent Pharmahealth.

Roche made a $44.50 per share offer for Illumina, valuing the DNA

sequencing and diagnostics firm at $5.7bn; the bid was hostile, following anumber of rebuffs from Illuminas management. Two days later, Illuminaadopted a shareholder rights plan but after Roche commenced its tender offerthe following day, Illuminas board of directors said it would review the offerand postpone its 2011 financial results announcements.

The tender offer will run until February 24th. Roche has also submitted fournominees for election to Illuminas board at its annual meeting.


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Product Issues

Novartis Consumer Health unit recalled a number of products, includingExcedrin and Bufferin, in the US because of the potential of foreign or brokentablets in the packs; the manufacturing problem also led to supply issues forEndos Opana ER and certain other analgesics.

Medivation and Pfizer announced further disappointing trial results for dimebonin Alzheimers disease and announced that they would be discontinuing itsdevelopment for all indications and terminating their collaboration.


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February 2012


Pfizer and Hisun advanced their memorandum of understanding to createHisun Pfizer Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd, a Chinese generics joint venture that willbe 51%-owned by Hisun. Merck & Co announced a new 51%-owned joint

venture with Supera Farma for the sale of innovative and branded genericproducts from Merck and Superas owners, Cristlia and Eurofarma, in Brazil.

US sales representatives filed an unpaid overtime suit against LEO Pharma.

Apotex paid Sanofi and Bristol-Myers Squibb $442m to satisfy the damagesruling following its launch of a generic version ofPlavixin 2006.


Illuminas board of directors unanimously rejected Roches $44.50 per sharecash tender offer as grossly inadequate. Nevertheless, later in the month Rocheextended the offer, which commenced on January 27th; Illumina noted that fewshares had been tendered.

Product Issues

Pfizer recalled its Lo/Ovraloral contraceptive and the generic equivalent in theUS due to incorrect packaging. Johnson & Johnson recalled another batch ofTylenol, this time the infants Oral Suspension 1oz grape formulation, aftersome users reported difficulties with the dosing system. Daiichi Sankyos

Luitpold subsidiary in the US recalled a batch of phenylephrine infectionfollowing the identification of visible particles.

Pfizer was sued by a group of plaintiffs who allege that taking its antidepressantZoloftwhilst pregnant caused birth defects in their children.

NGOs in India protested against Novartis attempts to patent its cancer drugGlivecin the country.

GSK paused enrolment in clinical trials ofAnacorsGSK 052 as a treatment for

complicated urinary tract infections due to a microbiological finding in a smallnumber of patients in one Phase IIb study.


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March 2012


Abbott announced that the pharmaceutical company created by its separationwould be known as AbbVie. Eisai is extending its UK headquarters to cover theEuropean, Middle Eastern and African business, while GlaxoSmithKline said it

would be investing 500m in the UK, building a new biopharmaceutical facilityin Cumbria and creating up to 1,000 new jobs partly in response to the Britishgovernments pledge to introduce a patent box, which would allow for a lowerrate of tax on profits generated by UK-based intellectual property. GSK andDaiichi Sankyo are creating a 50:50 vaccine development and marketing jointventure, known as Japan Vaccine Co., in Japan; it will begin operations in July.Conversely, Pfizer and Biocon decided not to pursue their biosimilar insulincommercialisation agreement, citing differences in individual priorities. Hospirareturned the US and Canadian rights to DurectsPosidur, a post-operative painrelief depot.

The US Department of Justice reportedly turned down a tentative $1bn federalsettlement with Johnson & Johnson over the alleged improper marketing ofits antipsychotic Risperdal; the company has already settled a case in Texas andtrials in other states are ongoing. A former Roche US sales manager won anage discrimation case against the company, while some sales representativesfiled an overtime suit against Novo Nordisk.


Sanofi is to purchase biosurgery company Pluromed, while Shire picked

FerroKin BioSciences, which has an iron chelator in Phase II trials. Valeantcontinued its acquisition trail, absorbing Natur Produkt, a Russian OTCmanufacturer; acquiring certain assets from Austrias Gerot Lannach (mainlybranded generics sold in Russia and the CIS); and taking a 19.9% stake in PeleNova, a Brazilian tissue regeneration biotechnology company.

Roche received a request for additional information on its hostile bid forIllumina from the FTC, and filed a definitive proxy statement before extendingits tender offer for a second time. It then increased its offer price from $44.50per share to $51, which Illuminas board said it would review. Amylin was

reported to have rejected a $3.5bn takeover offer from Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Product Issues

A US court dismissed an AstraZeneca lawsuit concerning the approval ofSeroquelcopies, as did the FDA with the companys Citizen Petition, and anumber of manufacturers launched generic quetiapine; AstraZenecasubsequently sued the FDA. Conversely, the US Seroquel XR formulation patent


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was found to be valid and infringed by a group of generics firms; this wasalso the case in the Netherlands, but in the UK the extended-release patent forthe antipsychotic was ruled to be invalid. In another setback, AstraZeneca saidit would not be pursuing the approval of TC-5214 as an adjunct therapy formajor depressive disorder; the product, licensed from Targacept, failed tomeet the primary endpoints of its latest Phase III studies. Endo filed anamended Citizen Petition trying to prevent the FDA approval of generic versions

of its topical analgesic for post-herpetic neuralgia, Lidoderm.

Sanofi began shipping Fabrazyme produced at its newly-approved plant inFramingham, MA, allowing US Fabry disease patients to return to full dosing;globally, normal supply levels should start to return in the second quarter.Simultaneously, Shire said it had decided to withdraw the BLA for its Fabrytherapy Replagal, after it appeared that the FDA would be requesting additionalclinical trials; it had been supplying Replagalto US patients, often free ofcharge, in response to Sanofis manufacturing deficiencies. Shire alsoannounced that Lialda (SPD476) had not shown efficacy as a treatment fordiverticulitis, so no regulatory filing was planned in this indication; the drug isalready marketed for ulcerative colitis.

British researchers are to examine whether GlaxoSmithKlines Pandemrix

pandemic flu vaccine might be linked to cases of narcolepsy in children. Bristol-Myers Squibb recalled organ storage fluid Viaspan in Europe owing to thepossibility of bacterial contamination. The FDA requested more information onEisais sNDA seeking approval ofDacogen as a treatment for acute myeloidleukaemia. An advisory panel voted against the approval ofMerck & Co andAriads ridaforolimus for sarcoma, citing a poor risk: benefit profile, and Mercksaid it would be discontinuing development of the oral formulation of

Cardiomes vernakalant for atrial fibrillation, based on an assessment of theregulatory environment and projected development timeline; work on theintravenous version (Brinavess) will continue.


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April 2012


Johnson & Johnson launched Janssen Therapeutics EMEA, a new Europeansubsidiary that will focus on the commercialization of TMC435 for hepatitis C,while Mylan is expanding its operations in Ireland. Novo Nordisk intends to

increase its US workforce by 15% this year, and Ipsen opened a newcommercial HQ in New Jersey. Meda announced that it had established anaffiliate in Hong Kong.

J&Js new CEO Alex Gorsky said he would be focusing on the recall problems atthe companys OTC unit, while AstraZeneca CEO David Brennan is making anabrupt departure in light of the firms recent poor performance.


It was a busy month for deal announcements, led by Watsons 4.25bnacquisition of Icelands Actavis, which could create the third-largest genericsmanufacturer. In smaller transactions, Amgen is to buy KAI, which has aPhase II candidate for secondary hyperparathyroidism, and Mustafa Nevzat ofTurkey; Takeda went for URL, which markets Colcrys for gout; andAstraZeneca is paying $1.26bn for Ardea, whose lead compound is also forgout. Valeants latest acquisition is Pedinol, a podiatry specialist, while Shirepicked up most of the assets ofPervasis, which has a regenerative medicineendothelial cell technology platform.

Human Genome Sciences rejected a $13 per share ($2.6bn) offer fromBenlysta partner GlaxoSmithKline, saying that it undervalued the company,but added that its board would be exploring strategic alternatives and that GSKhad been invited to participate in the process. Warner Chilcottdidnt identifyits potential suitors, but said it was also examining ways of enhancingshareholder value; Bayer was reported to be considering a bid. Pfizer divestedits nutrition business to Nestl, for $11.85bn.

After being rejected by both board and shareholders, Roche said it would notbe extending its tender offer for Illumina, or increasing the price of its $51 pershare ($6.8bn) hostile bid.

Product Issues

Novartis announced that a patient using its oral multiple sclerosis therapyGilenya had developed progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy; however,the patient had previously used Biogen Idec and ElansTysabri, which isassociated with the rare viral disease.


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A few days later, the EMA concluded its review ofGilenyas safety, andrecommended stronger warnings; simultaneously, Novartis agreed to makesimilar changes to the products US label. The FDA placed Novartis hepatitis Ccandidate alisporivir on clinical hold following the death of a patient in a trial.

Bayer updated the US labels for its oral contraceptives containing drospirenone,regarding the higher risk of venous thromboembolism compared with products

using levonorgestrel or other progestins, while the FDA warned that Merck &Cos Propecia and Proscarfinasteride products, used for male pattern baldnessand benign prostatic hypertrophy respectively, might be associated with sexualside-effects.

Johnson & Johnson was ordered to pay a $1.1bn penalty by an Arkansas courtafter being found guilty of improperly marketing its antipsychotic Risperdal.


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May 2012


Abbott agreed to pay a total of $1.6bn to US federal and state authorities tosettle claims that it improperly promoted anticonvulsant Depakote for off-labelindications, and entered into a five-year Corporate Integrity Agreement. Pfizer

said it had reached an amicable settlement in the case brought by BrighamYoung University and Daniel Simmons, regarding the latters involvement in thedevelopment ofCelebrex: Pfizer will fund a chair at BYU in Simmons name. InFrance, a trial against Servier commenced concerning its now withdrawndiabetes drug Mediator, which has been linked to more than 500 deaths.

Endo Pharmaceutical Holdings shareholders approved a change in thecompanys name, to Endo Health Solutions, while Bayer was reported to beconsidering the sale of its Diabetes Care unit. Activist investor Carl Icahn isagain seeking to secure representatives on the Forest board of directors. Lilly

opened a new R&D centre in Shanghai, which will focus on diabetes.

The Indian government said officials at the countrys drug regulator had beencolluding with both domestic and international manufacturers to speed up drugapprovals, which sometimes meant products were not tested sufficiently.


Despite being rejected by the board in April, GlaxoSmithKline launched atender offer directly to Human Genome Sciences shareholders, promptingHGS to adopt a stockholder rights plan; GSK was later reported to be

considering a move to replace the entire HGS board of directors, and to extendits tender offer beyond June 7th.

Takeda announced an agreement to acquire Multilab, a Brazilian manufacturerof branded generic and over-the-counter drugs. Valeant bought certain assetsfrom Canadian nutraceutical firm Swiss Herbal Remedies, plus theAcneFreeskin treatment and other assets from University Medical of the US. Johnson& Johnson acquired Guangzhou Bioseal Biotechnology, which has a porcineplasma-derived product for the control of bleeding during surgery.

Product Issues

Daiichi Sankyo began a strategic collaboration with Coherus BioSciences forthe development and commercialisation ofEnbreland Rituxan/MabTherabiosimilars in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

After making a concerted effort to maintain sales following the loss of its USexclusivity last November, Pfizer told The Wall Street Journalthat it would no


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longer be negotiating new contracts to sell Lipitorto health plans, and also thatno advertising or sales force promotion for the drug would be continued;multiple generics were able to enter the US market on May 31. Pfizer alsoreported disappointing results for Lyrica in inadequately treated painful diabeticperipheral neuropathy, and halted a Phase III trial of the product for HIVneuropathy.

Sanofi and Bristol-Myers SquibbsPlavix, the worlds second best-sellingdrug after Lipitor, lost US exclusivity on May 17th. Onyx and Bayers Nexavar,marketed for liver and kidney cancers, did not improve overall survival in a non-small cell lung cancer trial, while Roche halted development of dalcetrapib aftersuggestions of lack of efficacy in a Phase III trial: it was designed to raise levelsof good HDL cholesterol.

The US National Institutes of Health is to work with AstraZeneca, Lilly andPfizer: the companies will make a number of their discontinued compoundsavailable to the NIH, which will investigate their potential in the treatment ofdifferent diseases. All the products target a specific gene, have already beenfound to be safe in humans, and any profits from commercialization would beshared.


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June 2012


Pfizer announced that would be running a partial IPO for its animal health unit,with the standalone company being known as Zoetis; separately, the patentexpiry ofLipitorwas linked to the company cutting 177 jobs in Ireland. Roche

is making 1,000 US employees redundant as part of a restructuring of its R&Doperations; some work will be transferred to Germany and Switzerland, and thehead of pharmaceutical research, Jean-Jacques Garaud, left the company.

Activist investor Carl Icahn continued his criticism of the executives at Forest,and sought to add more of his representatives to its board of directors.Johnson & Johnson said it would record a charge of $600m in the secondquarter related to the litigation over Risperdal, Invega, Natrecorand OmnicareInc. In a case involving GlaxoSmithKline but relevant to a number of othermajor pharmaceutical companies, the US Supreme Court ruled that the firm did

not owe its sales personnel overtime wages as they were exempt from a federalwage-and-hour law.

In China, a former researcher at WuXi PharmaTech was accused of stealingand selling two Merck & Co compounds his then company had been testing onbehalf of the US giant. The government introduced new legislation that couldsee it overrule patent protection in certain circumstances, and was reported tobe looking at doing so for Gileads antiretroviral tenofovir, a key component ofmany HIV treatment regimens.


Bristol-Myers Squibb is to buy diabetes specialist Amylin in a complicateddeal valuing the smaller firm at $5.3bn. BMS will pay out another $1.7bncomprising Amylins net debt and a contractual payment obligation to formerByetta partner Lilly, but in turn will receive $3.4bn from AstraZeneca, whichwill enter into a development and commercialisation collaboration with Amylinonce the acquisition has been completed. AstraZeneca, Novartis, Sanofi andMerck & Co had also reportedly been interested in Amylin, which recentlylaunched the extended-release exanatide product Bydureon in the US.

GSK again extended its $2.6bn tender offer to buy Benlysta partner HumanGenome Sciences,until June 29, despite the latters repeated rejection of thebid as being undervalued. Lilly CEO John Lechleiter again said he wasntinterested in any major acquisitions or diversification.


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Product Issues

Merck & Co and AstraZeneca amended their historical partnership relating to aformer US joint venture: AstraZeneca will not exercise its option to acquireMercks remaining interest in the joint venture in 2012, and will receive a newoption to do so in June 2014. The decision will boost Mercks revenue, thanks to

an interest in Nexium and Prilosec, by $200m annually. Merck KGaA began acollaboration with Dr Reddys for the development and commercialisation ofbiosimilars, with a focus on monoclonal antibodies for cancer.

Forest revised its 2013 earnings guidance downwards owing to a more severedrop in sales for antidepressant Lexapro than previously expected following theloss of US exclusivity in March. Amgen said Sensipar/Mimpara had not led to astatistically significant improvement in mortality/cardiovascular event rates inpatients with secondary hyperparathyroidism and chronic kidney disease ondialysis.

Sanofi Pasteur recalled all its BCG vaccine in Canada because of manufacturingproblems, while Novartis withdrew a batch of oral contraceptive Introvale owingto a packaging error. J&J is being sued over problems with its vaginal meshproducts. AstraZeneca halted a Phase I study of AZD2820, a subcutaneousmelanocortin-4 receptor partial agonist for obesity co-developed with Palatin,after one recipient suffered a serious adverse event, possibly an allergicreaction.


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GLOBAL MARKET SALES

Sales Through Retail Pharmacies (Twelve months to June 2012)

Total world Market $853.2 Bn

NORTH AMERICA $250.7 BnU.S.A. $231.1 Bn

CANADA $19.6 Bn

EUROPE $107.8 BnGERMANY $28 Bn

FRANCE $15.2 Bn

ITALY $28 BnSPAIN $13.9 Bn

UK $13.2 Bn

JAPAN (including hospitals) $102.2 Bn

CHINA (hospital) $45.3 Bn

LATIN AMERICA $41.3 BnBRAZIL $22.1 Bn

MEXICO $8.1 BnARGENTINA $5.3 Bn

AUSTRALIA/NZ $12 Bn

The top 5 therapy classes at ATC3 level in the 12 months to June 2012 were:

C10A-Cholesterol And Triglyceride Regulating preparations

A2B-Antiulcerants

N5A-Antipsychotics

N6A-Antidepressents & mood stabilizers

A10C-Human Insulin and Analogues

The top 5 products in the 12 months to June 2012 were:

1. Lipitor2. Crestor3. Plavix4. Seretide5. NexiumThe top 5 corporations in the 12 months to June 2012 were:

1. Pfizer2. Novartis3. Merck & Co4. AstraZeneca5. GlaxoSmithKline


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MARKETOVERVIEW

The 1st Half 2012 saw a double digit growth for both MNCs and NATs. With the

market touching 180.083 billion Pak Rupees, the industry grew exceptionally

well with the phenomenal positive growth of+17.03% in MAT Q212. Nationals

continued to gain market share with a growth of +19.28% while Multinationals

also grew with a double digit growth of +14.24% (Q2 2012- MAT BASIS).

The fast onward march of the national companies continued capturing share of 56.40%,

leaving multinationals behind. Nationals also dominated unit market share with 52.64%

as compared to Multi-Nationals 47.36% (based on Q2 2012).

17.03

19.28

14.24

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

TOTAL NATIONAL MULTI-NATIONAL

VALUE WISE GROWTH LAST 12 QTRS - MAT BASIS

Growth

+/-

17.02

18.54

15.06

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Q3-09

Q4-09

Q1-10

Q2-10

Q3-10

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

TOTAL NATIONAL MULTI-NATIONAL

VALUE WISE GROWTH LAST 12 QTRS - QTR BASIS

Growth

+/-


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NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES

The past trend of National companies launching large number of New Products

continued during the first half of 2012.The value and total number of new products

launched by the industry in different segments/ ATC level I during Jan 2012 Jun 2012

are:

Value Number of New ProductsTOTAL 438,517,459 212

NATIONAL 380,741,787 196

MULTI-NATIONAL 57,775,672 16


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Month wise Products Launched

As per monthly activity in the industry in term of New Product launches, we can

see that March 2012 was the most active month with 57 launches while January

had fewest New product launches 22 only. Interestingly January 2012, despite

being the lowest month in term of New product launches, has the highest per

product yield. February 2012 although being better than January 2012 in new

product launches has the lowest per product yield.

During the period under discussion, May 2012 was the highest month in terms of

sales value but it is the 2nd lowest month after February 2012 in per product

yield.

As evident by above table, more new products were launched in J and A therapeutic

segments which prompts us to think that despite their large size and crowded market

place, there is still potential and growth opportunities which cannot be neglected by the

market players.


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MULTINATIONAL Vs NATIONAL ANALYSIS (SPLY)

The 25 MNCs in Pakistan have a cumulative share of 43.60% in value. The per company

average market share comes to 1.74 %. A historical comparison of MNCs share analysis

over the last five years is shown in the chart below. The graph shows a gradual decline

in share of MNCs with balance of power clearly shifting in favor of National companies.

During 2012, MNCs have lost 1.07% in value while in units, they have lost .79%. Main

segments where national companies have gained are J, A and

C class.

The evolution index of MNCs is 97.62 & NATs is 101.92 in the 1st Half of 2012 (MAT

Basis); a yard stick to guage gain or loss of market share. The current market share

of 56.40% in value and 52.64% in units that national companies enjoy in this


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market is through 8,107 Active products (currently available in the market and sales

reported in IMS), whereas MNCs have 43.60% share in value and 47.36% in units

through currently 993 Active products.

DERIVED /REDEFINED MARKET ANALYSIS

As market share analysis is one of the key yardsticks to measure performance, it would

be more pertinent to analyze Corporates in their own competing grounds. As would be

observed below, there are major shifts for some companies creating new ranking

dimensions to corporate listings. The results are tabulated as under:

Searle which was first in term of operating market size during same period last year 1st

half of 2011 is still at no 1 position in 1 st half 2012. The playing area of Searle which was

113 billion has now expanded up to 121 billion and Pfizer stood at 2nd position with 118

billion followed by GSK, Novartis and Barrett Hodgson. Thus, on the basis of the above

and according to redefined market shares, the top 10 corporate rankings in

descending order would be: Roche, Nestle, GlaxoSmithKline, Abbott, Bayer, Sami,


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Sanofi-Aventis, Getz, Novartis and Pfizer. Its interesting to note that although both

Novartis and Getz enjoy same market share in total market but in terms of real market

share Getz clearly surpasses Novartis. Though Nestle is ranked 2 nd in terms of real

market share, however, Nestles sales are mainly from its consumer (non-

pharmaceutical) products.

Per Product YieldThe Per Product Yield for top 20 Corporates is tabulated as under:

GSK, Abbott, Sami, Nestle and Roche are proud members of the club who have achieved

over Rs 100 Mn in per product yield. Sami has created history by becoming the first

national company to be a member of this prestigious club. GSK has got the highest


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number of active products i.e.; 162 while within the top 20, Nestle with 21 products sits

at the bottom of the list.

Top 10 MNCs and Nationals Sales and Market share

GSK leads the MNCs with highest sales and the only corporate with double

digit market share. At Nationals front top 5 Companies each have greater

than 2% share from total market. Top 10 Nationals occupy nearly of

the total industry sales (23.03%).


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ACTIVE MARKETA fair idea could be extracted from the following table, where the top 20 ATCs are analyzed under corporat

contribution (Multinational & National), formulation and number of brands available.

Of the 20 TCs analyzed, the honors are nearly equally shared by MNCs and Nationals as MNCs

dominate in 7 ATCs while Nationals dominate in the rest 13. M01A has highest no of products,

making it the toughest battle ground among the leading segments. A few ATCs level III worth

mentioning which have clear cut MNC domination are J01C-BROAD SPECTRUM PENICILLIN(81.76), N02B-NON-NARCOTIC ANALGESICS (71.43), A12A-CALCIUM (54.47), A11E- VITAMIN B

COMPLEX (81.46), J05B-ANTIVIRALS EXCL. ANTI HIV (56.94) and A10C- HUMAN INSULIN +

ANALOGUES (95.10). Similarly some ATCs level III where Nationals have clear domination are

J01D-CEPHALOSPORINS & COMBINATIONS (77.35), J01G- FLUOROQUINOLONES (76.93), A02B-

ANTIULCERANTS (87.06), P01D-ANTI-MALARIALS (88.17), R05C-EXPECTORANTS (83.70) and

C10A-CHOLESTROL & TRIGLY. REGULATOR (92.36)


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FORMULATION WISE CONTRIBUTION: Whats happening at this front?

The above table shows that Oral solid dominates the market with 50% share for total market

and as well as MNCs and Nationals. Although it has a lions share in all formulation, its growth is

less than the total market and respective segments.

Oral liquid despite being 2nd in market share is growing faster than the total market and MNC/

National segments.


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Corporate Matrix Q2-2012 Performance (MAT BASIS)

*CONT. TO PK.PM = Contribution to Pakistan Pharmaceutical Market


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Top 20 Corporations (Excl. V06 & V07) formulation wise Contribution %

Solid, liquid and Injectable % contribution for the top 20 corporations in total Pharmaceutical

Industry of Pakistan in Q2-2012 on MAT Basis is tabulated as under:

In Solid formulation, GSK is on top position with 5.89% share followed by Getz, Novartis

and Abbott having more than 3% contribution.

In Liquids, GSK again remains on top with 2.77% share followed by Abbott and Pfizer

having more than 1% contribution. Searle and Novartis stand on 4th and 5th positions

respectively.In Injectable market, Sanofi-Aventis is on top position with a share of 1.55% followed by

Sami, Roche and BOSCH with more than 1% contribution.


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Absolute Growth of Top 10 Corporations

Total industry had an absolute growth of Rs 26.23 Bn on MAT Q2-2012 basis and it was Rs

21.68 Bn on MAT Q2-2011. If we analyze the absolute growth of top 10 Corporations

contributed 45.7% of total Absolute growth of the Industry. We come to the conclusion

that in the top 10 corporations, GSK is the first corporate which achieved Rs 2 Bn in

absolute growth followed by Abbott which has achieved 1.94 Bn and another 3 Corporateshave crossed One billion plus in absolute growth. As can we seen below that two National

Corporates are in pursuit of reaching/surpassing the two MNC giants in term of absolute

growth.

Elements of Growth (EGS)

A deep dive into the Elements of growth show that on an average 72% of Absolute Growth is

coming from Volume, 8.36% from New Product launches, 5.29% from Line Extensions while

14.32% from Price change of top 10 Corporates.


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Top 10 Corporations Per Day Yield (January -June 2012)

The table shows PDY (Per Day Yield) of top 10 corporations of the Pakistan Pharma Industry.

Following are the key findings from the table:

Most Productive Month

The average productivity of the Industry per month for the months of January to June 2012

comes to Rs. 516,066,902. The highest productivity is seen in the month of May with Rs.

546,648,523. If we analyze the productivity of individual corporations:

Company Most Productive Month

GSK March

Abbott, Pfizer, Getz & Searle April

Novartis, Sami & Merck May

Sanofi & Hilton June


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Least Productive Month

January was the least productive month for the Industry and as well as for the top 10 Corporates.

Growth Per Day Productivity June / January

If we calculate the growth on per day productivity of Industry for the period June over January it is

17.40%. This calculation in percentage is derived by dividing the per day productivity of

industry in the month of June by the per day productivity in January. For the individual

corporations, Sanofi has the highest growth on per day productivity i.e. (+44.03%) while GSK has

the lowest growth on per day productivity i.e. (0.33%).


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MARKET COMMENTARY (MAT Q2 2012 Vs MAT Q2 2011)

LEADING 20 CORPORATES (DETAIL ON TABLE 1)

The overall market reached 180.083 Bn rupee mark with a growth of +17.03% on MAT

Q2 2012 basis. The top 8 Corporates have crossed 5 billion mark. In the top 20Corporates, 9 are multinationals and 11 are nationals. The top 20 Corporates contribute

62.37% of the total Market. GLAXOSMITHKLINE and ABBOTT were the main contributors

with 10.95% and 6.52% share respectively of the total market.

In the top twenty Corporates ranking the first four Corporates (GSK, Abbott, Pfizer and

Novartis) maintained their rankings. However shift in rank was observed as follows

The Corporates who managed to grow more than the market (having evolution indices

above 100) are ABBOTT, GETZ, SAMI, BOSCH, GLOBAL and ATCO. Amongst the top 20

Corporates, SAMI was the fastest growing company (+30.11%) followed by GETZ

(+28.24%), GLOBAL (+27.48%), and ATCO (+22.31%).

The top 20 Corporates cumulative value is 112.27 billion (62.34% market share) this

year and in 2011 it was 96.96 billion (63.01% market share). If we analyze the growth

contribution from the total Pakistan Pharma market, the top 20 grew 15.79% while rest

of the market grew 19.12% which is higher than the total Pharma market. This slower

growth of the top 20 club made them loose 0.67% market share this year in 2Q 2012

MAT Vs 2Q 2011 MAT.


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LEADING 20 MULTINATIONAL CORPORATES (DETAIL ON TABLE-2)

Although the MNCs grew with double digit +14.24%, they lost around 1.07% share in

value to National companies at MAT Q2 - 2012 as compared to MAT Q2 2011. Total

market size of MNCs moved from Rs. 68.73 Bn to Rs 78.52 Bn. The fastest growing

corporate is ALCON +26.11% followed by JOHNSONS & JOHNSONS +25.14%,

LUNDBECK +22.42% and NOVO NORDISK +19.04%.

Within the top 20, movements in slots in last one year MAT Q2 2012 Vs MAT Q2 2011

are as follow:


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LEADING 20 NATIONAL CORPORATES (DETAIL ON TABLE-3)

The National Corporates are consistently gaining market share in the Pakistan

Pharmaceutical Industry, owing to their higher than market growth i.e. +19.28% Vs

+17.03% (MAT Q2 2012). The Nationals have a value of Rs. 101.56 billions with a share

of 56.40% with an increase of 1.07% as compared to same period last year. The top 5

slots remained in the same hands while there were some shifts in other Corporates

rankings.

In top 20s club, we saw 5 National corporations improve their ranking this year Vs last

year while 5 corporations on the other hand have slipped down their ranks during the

same period.

Within the top 20, movements in slot in last one year MAT Q2 2012 VsMAT Q2 2011 are

as follows:

Amongst the top 20 Nationals, the fastest growing was SAMI (+30.11%) followed by

PHARMEVO (+28.75%), GETZ (+28.24%), HIGH-Q INTL (+28.0%) and GLOBAL

(+27.48%)


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LEADING 20 ATCs (DETAIL ON TABLE-4)

In the top 20 ATCs, J01D - CEPHALOSPORINS & COMBINATION remained on top of the

list with 14.81 Billion sales and growing at a rate of 14.77%. The next six (6) ATCs have

all crossed the MAT sales of five billion rupees. The top 2 ATCs remained in the sameposition while INFANT FORMULAS, NON-NARCOTIC ANALGESICS, ANTIHISTAMINES

SYSTEMIC and ANTI-EPILEPTICS have retained their ranking while rest of the ATCs that

underwent rank movements are:

Amongst the top 20 ATCs, 9 had faster growth than the total market. The fastest

growing ATC was R05C-Expectorants +29.32% followed by A10C-HUMAN

INSULIN+ANALOUGES +26.06%, P10D-ANTI-MALARIALS +25.30%, A02B-

ANTIULCERANTS +22.51% and A12A-CALCIUM +21.57%. All the ATCs had positive and

double digit growth.


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Where is the growth coming from for the above mentioned 5

fastest growing ATCs?

Despite observing new launches and periodic price increase (hardship cases + using the

price cushion), volume change is the main growth driver for these ATCs. R05C has

observed Price Change as the major component of growth where we have seen

significant price increases as described above.


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LEADING 20 PRODUCTS (DETAIL ON TABLE-5)

AUGMENTIN with sales of 3.27 billion is heading the leading top 20 products table. It is ahead

of the next product in the list by a very big margin of 1.83 billion and has a growth of

+8.54%. It has 1.82% share from total Pakistan Pharma market. Again, the Multinationals

are leading the top 20 products list with 15 products against 5 products of Nationals.

Among the leading 20 products, 6 products belong to GSK, 3 products belong to Abbott and 2

products belong to Sami. The top 20 products contributed 13.59% of the total market.

Among the top 20, highest growth was seen in CAC 1000 Plus +120.38%, ENSURE

+40.56%, PANADOL +36.25%, RISEK +34.62%, OXIDIL +31.35% and NOVIDAT +30.93%

followed by HUMULIN 70/30 +27.87%. In the top 20, 16 products show double digit growth.

Among the leading 20 products, 7 belong to ANTI-INFECTIVE class, 5 belong to ALIMENTARY

TRACT SYSTEM and 3 belong to NON-NARCOTIC ANALGESICS.

LEADING 20 NEW PRODUCTS (DETAIL ON TABLE-6)

National Companies have a major dominance in the new product market (product < 25

months old). Thirteen (13) out of the top 20 new products belong to National companies and

Seven (7) belong to Multi-National

PEG-INF is the leading product with a sales value of Rupees 323.5 million and having

04.12% share from the total new products market. PEG-INF has set a new record and has

raised the bar very high for future new products. We feel that it would be difficult for a new

product to beat this record in near future. In terms of market share within new products,

PREVENAR 13 of PFIZER has 03.85%, UNIPEG of GETZ has 02.68% and OSNATE-D of AGP

has 01.53% occupying the next three positions.


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LEADING 20 SINGLE MOLECULES (DETAIL ON TABLE-7)

The single molecule market reached at Rs. 120 Billion mark having share of 67% with a

growth of +15.81% which is lower than the total market growth in MAT Q2 2012. In this

semester 8 out of top 20 single molecules crossed Rupees 2 billion mark with the

addition of 1 molecule in this club while all top 20 single molecules have crossed the

Rupees 1 billion mark.

Among the top 20, only CEFTRIAXONE, CEFIXIME, OMEPRAZOLE, PARACETAMOL,

AMOXICILIN, PEGINTERFERON ALFA-2A, CLARITHROMYCIN, and AMLODIPINE

maintained their ranks, while significant changes were seen in the ranking of the

remaining molecules as shown in the table below:


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MEDICAL INDEX OF PAKISTAN (MIP) FACTS

BASED ON MAT JUNE 2012

CONSULTATIONS

The total number of consultations in Pakistan is 802 million on MAT June

2012 and if we analyze top 10 consultations we observed that they alone

contribute 33.92%. In top 10 consultations we observed 80% are coming

from Acute and 20% are from chronic therapeutic class areas.

LEADING 10 CONSULTATION IN PAKISTAN

1. FEVER UNSPECIFIED2. ESSENTIAL (PRIMARY) HYPERTENSION3. DIARREOHA & GASTROENTERITIS OF PRESUMED INFECTIOUS

ORIGIN

4. MALAISE AND FATIGUE5. COUGH6. OTHER SPEC RESPIRATORY DISORDERS7. NAUSEA AND VOMITING8. UNSPECIFIED DIABETES MELLITIS WITHOUT COMPLICATIONS9. URINARY TRACT INFECTION UNSPECIFIED10. ACUTE TONSILLITIS UNSPECIFIED

In the leading 10 consultations in Pakistan, Unspecified Diabetes

Mellitis without complications goes 1 position up (from 9 to 8

position) as compared to last semester (Q4-2011)


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PRESCRIPTIONS

The total prescriptions from all doctor specialties in Pakistan are 1.460 Bn

on MAT June 2012 in which MNCs have 51.69% and Nationals have

48.31% share. This is interesting to note that although MNCs have lost

significant share to National in sales but they are maintaining lead in Rx.

If we analyze total MNCs prescriptions the top ten MNCs share is 95.89

and within total National prescriptions, the top ten Nationals have 48.51%

share.

LEADING 10 CORPORATES IN PAKISTAN

The leading 10 Corporates contribute 861 Mn prescriptions and their

share is 58.95% on MAT June 2012 basis of total Pakistan prescriptions.

1. GlaxoSmithKline2. Abbott3. Pfizer4. Sanofi Aventis5. Novartis6. Searle7. Sami8. Getz9. Merck10. Hilton

6 out of 10 Corporates i.e., 60% Corporates are MNCs again showing

supremacy at this front.


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FASTEST GROWING CORPORATES IN PAKISTAN

If we analyze the fastest growing Corporates in terms of prescriptions in

Pakistan, Nationals are growing faster than MNCs and in top 5 Corporates

4 belong to National and one belongs to MNC, which are:

1. Atco2. Bosch3.Helix4.Servier5.Asian Continental

PRODUCT PRESCRIBED SPECIALITY WISE

An in depth analysis of specialties in terms of their prescribing habits

shows that GPs are prescribing PANADOL as the no 1 drug followed by

CALPOL on second place and AUGMENTIN on third place.For prescribing habits of other specialties please refer to the chart below:

Out of the brands occupying first 3 positions an all doctor specialties, 12

belong to MNCs and 5 belong to Nationals.


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TABLES

TABLE 1-TOP 20 CORPORATES

TABLE 2-TOP 20 MULTINATIONAL CORPORATES

TABLE 3-TOP 20 NATIONAL CORPORATES

TABLE 4-TOP 20 THERAPEUTIC CLASSES

TABLE 5-TOP 20 SINGLE MOLECULES

TABLE 6-TOP 20 LEADING PRODUCTS

TABLE 7-TOP 20 NEW PRODUCTS


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1ST HALF 2012

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