evolving solutions for new horizons, seafood summit 2012 keynote speech
DESCRIPTION
Dr Stephen Hall, Director General of WorldFish, presents his keynote speech at the Seafood Summit 2012 in Hong Kong.TRANSCRIPT
Evolving Solutions for New Horizons
Hong Kong Seafood Summit (Sept, 2012)
Where are we heading?
Global consumption patterns
Aquaculture Production
Year
Prod
uctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
20
40
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
80
100
120
Pig
Chicken
Fish
Production targets (national data)
Production forecast (this study)
Year
Prod
uctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
20
40
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
80
100
120
FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)
IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)
Fish
•Baseline/scenario
•Technological/advances/in/aquaculture
•Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries
• Global/consumption//remains/at1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y)
• Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)
Stagnant fisheries
Year
Prod
uctio
n (m
illion
tonn
es)
20
40
60
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
80
100
120
FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)
IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)
Fish
•Baseline/scenario
•Technological/advances/in/aquaculture
•Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries
• Global/consumption//remains/at1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y)
• Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y
Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)
Stagnant fisheries
Demand Drivers
Changes in developing country wealth (1995 – 2005)
Source: World Bank (2011) The changing wealth of na<ons.
Growth in per capita wealth (1995 – 2005)
Source: World Bank (2011) The changing wealth of na<ons.
Urbanization
US246.2
Urban population in millions
81%Urban percentage
Mexico84.392
77%
Colombia34.373%
Brazil162.685%
Argentina35.690%
Ukraine30.968%
Russia103.673%
China559.2
Urban population in millions
42%Urban percentage
Turkey51.168%
India329.329%
Bangladesh38.226%
Philippines55.064%
Indonesia114.150%
S Korea39.081%
Japan84.766%
Egypt33.143%
S Africa28.660%
Canada26.3
Venezuela26.0
Poland23.9
Thailand21.5
Australia18.3
Netherlands13.3
Peru21.0
Saudi Arabia20.9
Iraq20.3 Vietnam
23.3
DR Congo20.2
Algeria22.0Morocco
19.4
Malaysia18.1
Burma16.5
Sudan16.3
Chile14.6
N Korea14.1
Ethiopia13.0
Uzbekistan10.1
Tanzania9.9
Romania11.6
Ghana11.3
Syria10.2
Belgium10.2
80%
94%
62%
33%
89%
81%
73%
81%
67%
27%
33%
65%60%
69%
32%
43%
88%
62%
16%
37%
25%
54%
49%
51%
97%
Nigeria68.650%
UK54.090%
France46.977%
Spain33.677%
Italy39.668%
Germany62.075%
Iran48.468%
Pakistan59.336%
Cameroon
AngolaEcuador
IvoryCoast
Kazakh-stan
Cuba
Afghan-istan
Sweden
Kenya
CzechRepublic
9.5
9.38.7
8.6
8.6
8.5
7.8
7.6
7.6
7.4
Mozam-bique
HongKong
Belarus
Tunisia
Hungary
Greece
Israel
Guate-mala
Portugal
Yemen
DominicanRepublic
Bolivia
Serbia &Mont
Switzer-land
Austria
Bulgaria
Mada-gascar
Libya
Senegal
Jordan
Zimbabwe
Nepal
Denmark
Mali
Azerbaijan
Singapore
ElSalvador
Zambia
Uganda
PuertoRico
Paraguay
UAE
Benin
Norway
NewZealand
Honduras
Haiti
Nicaragua
Guinea
Finland
Uruguay
Lebanon
Somalia
Sri Lanka
Cambodia
Slovakia
Costa Rica
Palestine
Kuwait
Togo
ChadBurkina
Ireland
Croatia
Congo
Niger
Sierra Leone
Malawi
Panama
Turkmenistan
Georgia
Lithuania
Liberia
Moldova
Rwanda
Kyrgyzstan
Oman
ArmeniaBosnia
Tajikistan
CAR
Melanesia
Latvia
Mongolia
Albania
Jamaica
Macedonia
Mauritania Laos
Gabon
Botswana
Slovenia
Eritrea
Estonia
Gambia
Burundi
Papua New Guinea
NamibiaMauritius
Guinea-Bissau
Lesotho E Timor
Bhutan
Swaziland
Trinidad & Tobago
The earth reaches a momentous milestone: by next year, for the first time in history, more than half its population will be living in cities. Those 3.3 billion people are expected to grow to 5 billion by 2030 — this unique map of the world shows where those people live now
At the beginning of the 20th century, the world's urban population was only 220 million, mainly in the west
By 2030, the towns and cities of the developing world will make up 80% of urban humanity
The new urban world
Urban growth, 2005—2010
Predominantly urban75% or over
Predominantly urban50—74%
Predominantly rural25—49% urban
Predominantly rural0—24% urban
Cities over 10 million people(greater urban area)
Key
Tokyo33.4
Osaka16.6
Seoul23.2
Manila15.4
Jakarta14.9
Dacca 13.8
Bombay21.3
Delhi21.1 Calcutta
15.5
Karachi14.8
Shanghai17.3
Canton14.5
Beijing12.7
Moscow13.4
Tehran12.1
Cairo15.9
Istanbul11.7
London12.0
Lagos10.0
MexicoCity22.1
New York21.8
Sao Paulo20.4
LA17.9
Rio deJaneiro
12.2
BuenosAires13.5 3,307,950,000
The world’s urban population — from a total of 6,615.9 million SOURCE: UNFPA GRAPHIC: PAUL SCRUTONAfrica Asia Oceania Europe0.1%
Eastern Europe-0.4%
Arab StatesLatin America& Caribbean North America
3.2%2.4%
1.3%
2.8%
1.7%1.3%
Source: UNFPA .
Fresh food consumption growth 2009 - 2014
Source: www.euromonitor.com .
Global consumption patterns
Growth in demand for !sh (2007 – 2015)
Source: Cai (2011) Preliminary notes on forecas<ng the country’s future demand for fish.
Growth in demand and need
number of stunted children in Asia (68 million) similar tothe number in Africa (64 million) in 2020. In Latin Americaboth the prevalence and number of affected children weremuch lower than in Africa and Asia (14% or 7 million in2010) and they are expected to continue decreasing in thecoming decade (Tables 2 and 3). Data in Oceania remainscarce and thus trend modelling is not possible. However,individual countries like Papua New Guinea show highrates of stunting (44% in 2005).
Nationally, there is great variation in rates of childhoodstunting. Figure 2 maps countries according to their latestnational stunting prevalence estimate. Rates are categorizedas low, medium, high and very high (,20 %, 20–29?9 %,30–39?9 % and $40 %, respectively)(18). Extremely highrates appear in countries like Afghanistan, Burundi andYemen, with levels above 50 % in most recent surveys.Other countries of sub-Saharan Africa, South-central andSouth-eastern Asia also present high or very high stunting
SPu
blic
Hea
lth
Nut
rition
0 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
2010 2015 2020
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Stun
ting
(%)
Fig. 1 Stunting trends from 1990 to 2020 by UN region (1 – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 – 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & theCaribbean; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country,territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lineson maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.© WHO 2010. All rights reserved
Fig. 2 Latest country estimates of stunting in children aged 0–5 years ( , no data; , ,20 %; , 20–29?9 %; ,30–39?9 %; , $40 %)
Trends in childhood stunting 5
number of stunted children in Asia (68 million) similar tothe number in Africa (64 million) in 2020. In Latin Americaboth the prevalence and number of affected children weremuch lower than in Africa and Asia (14% or 7 million in2010) and they are expected to continue decreasing in thecoming decade (Tables 2 and 3). Data in Oceania remainscarce and thus trend modelling is not possible. However,individual countries like Papua New Guinea show highrates of stunting (44% in 2005).
Nationally, there is great variation in rates of childhoodstunting. Figure 2 maps countries according to their latestnational stunting prevalence estimate. Rates are categorizedas low, medium, high and very high (,20 %, 20–29?9 %,30–39?9 % and $40 %, respectively)(18). Extremely highrates appear in countries like Afghanistan, Burundi andYemen, with levels above 50 % in most recent surveys.Other countries of sub-Saharan Africa, South-central andSouth-eastern Asia also present high or very high stunting
SPu
blic
Hea
lth
Nut
rition
0 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
2010 2015 2020
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Stun
ting
(%)
Fig. 1 Stunting trends from 1990 to 2020 by UN region (1 – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 – 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & theCaribbean; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)
The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country,territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lineson maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.© WHO 2010. All rights reserved
Fig. 2 Latest country estimates of stunting in children aged 0–5 years ( , no data; , ,20 %; , 20–29?9 %; ,30–39?9 %; , $40 %)
Trends in childhood stunting 5
Stunting in children < 5 yrs
Source: Onis et al., (2010) .
Well-being and security
Source: New England Complex Systems Ins<tute .
Well-being and security
Well-being and security
Our challenges
Multiple and inter-related
SupplyCapture Fisheries
Aquaculture
DemandConsumption Patterns
Trade Patterns
Demand Drivers
Sector Structure and DynamicsFleets
Farms
Value Chains
GovernanceFisheries
Aquaculture
Environmental Impacts
Technical Barriers
Predicting Trends
Food security Over!shing
Pro!tability
Fishery Reform
Policy and Regulation
Polarities everywhere
Polarities everywhere
22
New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation!
Results:
1. At least for the price formation in Germany, there is no statistical relation between increasing volumes of frozen pangasius fillets and landing prices for cod.
2. Regarding landing prices of plaice a statistical relation with in-creasing volumes of imported frozen pangasius fillets can be stated.
1
Seminar on price formation and marketing of fisheries and
aquaculture products
„New supply chains for seafood:Implications for competition and price
formation“
10. December 2009, Brussels
Dr. Matthias Keller, AIPCE/CEP
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/!sheries/news_and_events/events/price_seminar/keller_en.pdf
10-‐13 Mt 19-‐20 Mt 11-‐13 mT
Source: Mills et al (2010)
Marine and freshwater !sheries
Freshwater fisheries are especially important for many of
those that need fish.
10-‐13 Mt 19-‐20 Mt 11-‐13 mT
Source: Mills et al (2010)
Large and small-scale !sheries
Small Scale fisheries are especially important for many of
those that need fish.
Demand and need
… and what poor consumers want to eat
What !sh farmers want to produce
Are we joining the dots?
Are we joining the dots?
Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture 1page
Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture
MAIN MESSAGES:
Aquaculture is essential for Cambodia’s future fi sh supply.
Growth of aquaculture is infl uenced by supply of fi sh from inland and marine capture sources, trade, technology development, private investment and adequate supply of essential inputs (mainly seed and feed)
Scenarios for future fi sh demand-supply for 2030 suggest aquaculture will need to supply between 106,000 tonnes and 281,000 tonnes by 2030.
Seven major Cambodian aquaculture systems currently supply the majority of farmed fi sh of which 50% of total production originates from one system, fresh water cage culture.
Future farmed fi sh supply will come from a combination of aquaculture systems. Four pathways were analysed for the future – continuation of the current system, a small holders low input dominated approach; a small holder high input dominated approached; and one dominated by SMEs.
Most optimal pathway projects 2030 total production of 187,840 tonnes with a shift to more effi cient small holder systems (46% of total supply), fresh water cage reduced to 20% and commercial farms (SMEs) as today at 23% of total supply. Farm infrastructure investment would be $200 million generating an annual net income of $127 million for half million households of which 85% are small holder farmers.
All pathways provide a good return on investment, indicating aquaculture can generate household and national income, business opportunity, employment, food and help lift rural households out of poverty.
All pathways indicate that the key to success will be getting the right mix of aquaculture systems, a shift away from heavy reliance on ‘wild’ feed and seed sources by signifi cant investment in domestic seed and feed production, and depending on the success of domestically sourced supplies of seed and feed, improvement of input supply value chains.
Research can contribute more effi cient system productivity, enhance integration with agriculture, value chains, better feeds and to cope with this rapid growth and improved extension models.
Growth will be infl uenced by regional fi sh supply and demand and status of aquaculture in Vietnam and Thailand. Increased competitiveness for similar production systems, reduced reliance on wild and imported feed and seed, exploiting new niche markets in Thailand and development of new indigenous species and requisite system technologies will be key to successful expansion.
Fish supply and demand scenarios for Cambodia
Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture2page
SCENARIOS FOR FISH SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2030
Stakeholder consultations prepared four scenario nar-ratives for fi sheries and aquaculture in 2030. An e-mail survey identifi ed key drivers of impact and their degree of uncertainty. Using the well established ‘Two-Axes’ method for scenario development, the drivers with high impact and
high uncertainty were used to create scenario logic, the framework to develop four scenario narratives for fi sheries and aquaculture in 2030 (Figure 2). Thereafter, a workshop was convened to describe in detail the scenario narratives and thus predict the most logical outcome in terms of out-put for different fi sh supply categories. Figure 2 shows the brief description of each scenario.
Figure 1: Schematic to show key steps, activities and outputs to determine future investment options for aqua-culture in Lower Mekong Basin
IS THE GROWTH OF AQUACULTURE IN CAMBODIA IMPORTANT?
Fish is vital to the well-being and livelihoods to millions of people in the Lower Mekong Basin, many of whom are poor, relying on fi sh as a major source of animal protein, sometimes the only source. Aquaculture - farming of fi sh and other aquatic animals - is becoming increasing more important in supplying fi sh to people in the region. The di-versity of aquaculture systems enable the poor to benefi t directly and also offer a lucrative investment for the better off which in turn offers employment for the poor and can re-duce fi sh prices thus providing greater access to the poor. Women may also gain from active participation in small holder fi sh farms, marketing and processing.
Aquaculture cannot replace the large volumes of fi sh har-vested from wild sources, but will grow in importance, as demand for aquatic products increases. Population is ex-pected to increase at 1.6% per annum in Cambodia over the next 20 years to 19 million people which would likely require substantial increased supplies of fi sh.
The supply of ‘free’ wild fi sh is under threat from over-fi shing, climate change, habitat modifi cation and hydropower development which could mean less fi sh supplied
from natural sources yet at the same time more demand. With aquaculture important for future fi sh supply, this study was initiated to explore in more detailed future fi sh sup-ply scenarios, the role of aquaculture, and provide a basis for understanding future investment and strategies for its sustainable development. The study was conducted by the Fisheries Administration (FiA), Inland Fisheries Research Development Institute (IFReDI) and the WorldFish Center co-funded by (ACIAR) (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research), and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan.
HOW CAN WE LOOK INTO THE FUTURE?
Future fi sh supply and demand scenarios for 2030 were used to understand the choices and investment options for future aquaculture growth. The methodology involved four inter-linked steps; i) future scenario development, ii) mod-elling projected fi sh demand and supply for 2030 using the ‘AsiaFish Model’ iii) aquaculture system characterization and, iv) analysis of aquaculture pathway and investment options (Figure 1).
Cambodia scenarios to 2030
Governance & Law
Policy & Compliance
Envi
ronm
ent &
Hab
itat
Anarchy in !sheries
Good conservation and habitat
preservation
Empowerment of community !sheries,
legal compliance
Degradation of !sh habitat
Winner Takes All • No hydro power • High !shing • Habitats preserved
Following the rules • Rice-!sh !sheries
enhanced • Hydro power grows • Fisheries stable
Aquaculture plus • Fisheries decline • Aquaculture investment • Hydro power grows
Cornucopia • Little IUU • No hydro power • Aq limited
Theory of change
Multi-stakeholder process
A balance of perspectives.
Structured engagement with a clear objective
and guidance.
Sustained effort - more than ‘one-off’ inputs.
A forward looking and informed stakeholder
constituency
Improved policy framework that aligns
action.
Coherent engagement with existing policy
processes.
An improved investment and risk
climate
Increased contribution
to food security and
economic development
A global equivalent? How to make this happenTo facilitate the dialogue needed by the !sh sector, we propose to establish a partnership among several key international institutions to structure and design a global multi-stakeholder process. Over the course of 18 months a combined top-down and bottom-up approach will examine the industry challenges ahead and use this as the foundation for a coherent and e"ective global policy framework, developed across a network of participating organizations including governments, industry players, research organizations, NGO’s and civil society.
The diagram below summarizes the proposed process, the objectives for each stage and how they combine to achieve the desired outcomes.
Purpose To bring stakeholders into a constructive problem solving conversationsTo suspend power relations and foster authentic interactions among participants.
To broaden the stakeholder constituency engaged in dialogue.To validate and re!ne global perspectives.
To develop solution sets for key constraints to achieving desired futures for the !sh food system.
To consolidate and review solution sets and develop regionally contextualized policy solutions.
To elaborate a global policy agenda and identify initiatives to build on progress.
Output A global picture of the !sh food system and its possible futures.A challenge framework for further action that identi!es desired and undesired futures.
A regionally contextualized picture of the !sh food system, the constraints to achieving desired futures and risk factors for moving in undesirable directions.
Identi!ed policy and business innovation options and needs.Identi!ed research and funding priorities.
Regional policy proposals to move the !sh food system in desired directions and reduce risk of shifts toward undesirable trajectories.
Global policy proposals that consolidate and build on regional outputs and outcomes.
Outcome New and strengthened relationships among key global actors.Greater appreciation by participants of alternative perspectives.Commitment to joint problem solving.A framework for further dialogue at regional level.
New and strengthened relationships among key regional actors.Greater appreciation by participants of alternative perspectives.Commitment to joint problem solving and a framework for doing so.
A comprehensive system wide option set to support stakeholder derived reform objectives.
A stakeholder owned agenda for investment and reform that aligns incentives to achieve common interests.An improved climate for investment and action among an aligned stakeholder constituency.A more informed business sector that is better able to manage risk.
A stakeholder owned agenda for investment and reform that aligns incentives to achieve common interests.A nascent Global Action Network to continue dialogue and engagement to assure the contributions of the !sh food system.
5
GlobalScenarios
2030 & Policy Gaps
Relevance of Global Scenarios
to Regions & Regional
Policy Gaps
Regional Policy Draft
Global PolicyFramework &
Initiatives
Global Workshop
Global Workshop
RegionalWorkshops
RegionalWorkshops
RegionalWorkstreams
Policy
Innovation
Research
Funding
1 2 3 4 5
Thank you