evolution of digital media technologies: diffusion theory
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Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory. Kathy E. Gill 17 October 2006. Overview. Recap Last Week Context – Alphabet Soup More Theory Group Discussion Course Projects. Recap . Digital media differ from traditional mass media in three essential ways: Time, Space - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Diffusion Theory
Kathy E. Gill17 October 2006
Overview Recap Last Week Context – Alphabet Soup More Theory Group Discussion Course Projects
Recap Digital media differ from traditional
mass media in three essential ways: Time, Space Bits v Atoms
Communication theories attempt to explain how and why things happen like they do
Theories (1/2)
Scientific HumanisticWhy: Discover the
“truth”Create meaning
Values: Objectivity “Emancipation”
Purpose: Determine universal laws
Provide rules for interpretation
Theories (2/2)
Scientific Humanistic
Research Methods:
Quantitative: experiment, survey
Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis
Judged by: Explains data Predicts future Testable hypothesis Practicality
Explains human behavior Clarifies values Consensus Ability to reform society
Additional Context Clip from It Happened One Night,
1934 A series of “quotables”
The Telegraph (1 of 2)
Separated communication from transportation
Changed the meaning of space (made the world smaller)
Helped change the meaning of time (time zones) The Great Western Railway was the first to adopt
London time in November 1840. Railroads instituted time zones in the US and
Canada on 18 November 1883.
The Telegraph (2 of 2)
"This is the age of telegrams. The public is accustomed to the consideration of facts in the briefest terms.“ The Science Record for 1873
Influenced journalism (objectivity) and language (“telegraph style”)
From the clip: $2.60 in 1934 = ~$40.00 today For $40 …. what communication services
can we buy?
Paradox Pre-voice telephony – we transferred
“data” (eg, wire transfers of money) Digital age – our “voice” is now
“data” (zeros-and-ones)
Quotable 1
“This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” -- Western Union internal memo, 1876
Quotable 2
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
Quotable 3
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”-- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
Quotable 4
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” -- Popular Mechanics, 1949
What Leads To Adoption? Clearly, most of us peer into a cloudy
ball, not a crystal one We’ll look at the adoption of
computing technologies after Alphabet soup Supervening Social Necessity Rogers Diffusion Theory
Why use a technology? (1/2)
Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for information, knowledge, understanding
Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and emotional experiences
Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed, deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status
Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world
Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion
- Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas
Why use a technology? (2/2)
Availability Cost Network effects Buzz/coolness factor Makes something easier to do ??
Digital Communication Today WWW, E-mail, FTP PDF, PPT, RTF, XLS HTML, XHTML, XML, CSS, JS GIF, JPG, PNG, SWF, MOV, AVI Perl, VB, CF, ASP, PHP P2P MSN, AOL, Google, Yahoo!, About.com iPod, Creative Zen, iRiver, PlaysForSure MySpace, YouTube, Slashdot RSS, HDTV, BlueRay … Anything else?
Why … Do we adopt one technology and not
another? VHS v Beta Apple’s Newton v Palm + or –R DVD media
Supervening Social Necessity Winston’s main contention
More than “build a better mousetrap” : VoIP from last week: “phones work fine” – what need is being met with the new technology
Advertising One goal is to build this “need”
FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt)
Rogers - Diffusion Theory Identified four main elements of an
innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time Communications channels
Linear innovation-diffusion theory
The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.
Rogers, 1995, page 5
Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is
perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption
Communication A process in which participants
create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding
Time The adoption model follows an
“s” shape curve over time
Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”
Social System A set of interrelated units that are
engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.
Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.
Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through
which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)
Rogers: Five steps of adoption Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation
Critical mass (1/2)
Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”
Critical mass (2/2)
The critical mass theory is a social system perspective, while the dominant design theory is a technology perspective.
The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation. Examples?
Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards
Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that
embodies the technology as a material or physical object.
Software - the knowledge base for the tool
For additional thought … Increasing capacity w/out adding
wires (telegraph). Parallels today? Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the
phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, software constant upgrades …
Discussion Four groups -> discuss key learnings and
questions from main readings Examples of supervening social necessity and
law of unintended consequences? What events/experiences came to mind during
these readings? Where did you find yourself saying ‘Yeah!’ or ‘No
way!’? What old images/concepts are being called into
question? How are you managing the sea of info around
you?
Projects Peer groups – continue to talk about
project ideas On Your Own – using UW Library
resources, search for relevant scholarly material on your subject
Feedback On 3x5 card (anonymous unless
you want feedback from me) How will you apply what you have
learned tonight? If we participated like this again, what
would you like us to do differently? Why?