evidence based policies for urbanization challenges

Evidence based policies for urbanization Challenges

Helsinki (WIDER)September 19, 2015

Background

• First day, morning session: paucity of new ideas

• Last session: Economists in Policy: macro yes; sectoral no.

• Evidence based policy making: Macro, yes; Sectoral?

• Policy research methods for evidence based sectoral policy;

• The urbanization context.

The urbanization challenge

• Urbanization in South Asia increasing fast

• By 2030, 226 million more people will live in the cities of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

• Amongst the large South Asian countries, Pakistan is the most urbanized.

Source: World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 revision

Importance of productive urban jobs

• Manufacturing critical in creating the demand for the urban migrant (East Asia, China, Europe and North America before that)

• Urban services (public transport, health, education, skills, housing) vital to help turn the rural migrant into a capable manufacturing sector worker

• Urban land use

• Tax revenue

Urbanization focused policy researchPublic transport (Lahore Metrobus)

Impact on integrating the labor market and human capital (interesting nature of the experiment, 73k, 2 years, K.Vyborny; Duke )

Designing Feeder routes, gender, price variation (150k; KV & E. Fields (Duke), 2.5 years)

Health

Monitoring the monitors (67K, 1.5 years; Michael Callen (Harvard), Ali Hasnain (LUMS), Yasir Khan (Berkley), Saad Gulzar (NYU)

Optimize Public Sector Wage Contracts: A Field Study in Pakistan of Polio workers ( 59.5K, 1.5 years Michael Callen (Harvard), Karrar Husain Jafferr (USC), Yasir Khan (Berkley)

Land use, Education and skills

• Integrating Urban data sets for better land use (9.9k, 10 months Sohaib Khan LUMS, Nasir Javed (Urban Unit)

• Explaining variation in education outcomes in KP (19.5K, 10 months, Masooma Habib (Lahore School)

• Support to Punjab Skills Development Fund

Property Tax

• Property Tax Experiment In Punjab, Pakistan: Testing the Role of Wages, Incentives, and Audit on Tax Inspectors' Behaviour

(139.7K 2.5 years) Benjamin Olken (MIT), Asim Khwaja (Harvard), Adnan Khan (IGC)

• Tournaments for Postings: Using Transfers and Postings as an Incentive for Property Tax Inspectors in Pakistan (116K; 2.5 years)

Creating jobs: Manufacturing and exports

• Remittances have surged throughout South Asia

• Exports have stagnated

• Dutch disease?

• Importance of fiscal policy

Policy research for strengthening manufacturing• Growth strategies

• Punjab (emphasizes the importance of reviving manufacturing)

• KP (liberalized South Asia trade)

• Firm capabilities research• Soccer balls in Sialkot

• Fans in Gujranwala

Concluding remarks

• You have to keep the full picture

• You have to be lucky

• Rewards are large

• Cultures are different; researchers need to engage

• It takes more time than you think

Lahore Urban Metrobus on Labor market outcomes and human capital formation

• Impact of a reduction in transit cost and time due to investment in public transport infrastructure on labor market outcomes and human capital acquisition.

• We will identify a more comparable control group than used in most previous literature: areas which were slated for potential routes but have not yet received them yet.

• Treatment group: areas within a short distance of the Lahore Bus Rapid Transit system (hereafter referred to as Metrobus) stations. Control group lines which have been planned but not yet built. Strict separation between the treatment and the control groups.

Labour market impacts of public transportation: Quasi-experimental analysis of the Lahore Metrobus

PIs Kate Vyborny (Duke), Ammar Anees (Urban Institute, DC), Anjum Altaf and Hadia Majid (LUMS)

Government counterpart

GoPb (P&D Dept and Lahore Transport Company) and Federal Minister of Planning and Reforms

Total cost of the project

GBP 73,900

Duration 2 Years

Public Transport and Urban Labor Market Integration: A Randomized Control Trial

• whether men and women who have access to transport are more likely to take a job at all, or more likely to commute to a higher quality, higher-paying job.

• a separate treatment arm to test the effect of a women’s-only transport link on outcomes for women.

• crosscutting randomization of ticket discounts to estimate demand for transport at different price levels.

• economic impacts of increasing urban access through peri-urban feeder routes, inform transportation and economic planning in cities in other developing countries.

Public Transport and Urban Labor Market Integration: A Randomized Control Trial

PIs Kate Vyborny (Duke), Erica Field (Duke)


GoPb (P&D Dept and Lahore Transport Company)


GBP 149,960

Duration 2.5 Years

Monitoring the Monitors: Using ICT to improve government monitoring in Punjab, Pakistan

PIs Michael Callen (Harvard), Ali Hasnain(LUMS), Yasir Khan (Berkley), Saad Gulzar(NYU)


Department of Health and PBIT (GoPb)


GBP 47,300

Duration 1.5 years

Using Preference Parameter Estimates to Optimize Public Sector Wage Contracts: A Field Study in Pakistan (Polio workers)PIs Michael Callen (Harvard), Karrar Husain Jafferr

(USC), Yasir Khan (Berkley)


Government of Lahore Division, Lahore District Health Department


GBP 59,455

Duration 1.5 years

Integrating Urban data sets for better land use

Lahore sub-divisions, as defined by different service providers (statistical office, police department, city administration, post office electricity supply company excise and taxation) , range from populations of 2000 (census blocks) to 5 million (Excise and taxation zones). This inconsistency in unit sizes makes it difficult to coordinate services across units..

The project sought to integrate the data sets to cerate more homogenous non-overlapping mohallas like the well-defined rural mauzas. The Mohalls:

• Respect union Council boundaries

• Categorize according to land use and land cover types

• Align with major features on the ground

• Small and roughly equal size

• Accommodate citizens perspective for space

Integrating Urban Datasets: The Path to Effective Socio-Economic Planning in Urban Pakistan

PIs Sohaib Khan (LUMS), Nasir Javed (Urban Unit, GoPb)


Urban Unit & PITB (GoPb)


GBP 9,986

Duration 10 months

Property Tax Experiment In Punjab, Pakistan: Testing the Role of Wages, Incentives, and Audit on Tax Inspectors' Behaviour

PIs Benjamin Olken (MIT), Asim Khwaja(Harvard), Adnan Khan (IGC)


Department of Excise & Taxation, Government of Punjab


GBP 139,710

Duration 2.5 Years

Tournaments for Postings: Using Transfers and Postings as an Incentive for Property Tax Inspectors in PakistanPIs Benjamin Olken (MIT), Asim Khwaja

(Harvard), Adnan Khan (IGC)


Department of Excise & Taxation, Government of Punjab


GBP 116,000

Duration 2.5 Years

evidence based policies for urbanization challenges

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