every child, by name and face, to graduation: are my students at risk for negative outcomes? a look...
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Every Child, By Name and Face, To Graduation:
Are my students at risk for negative outcomes? A look at the Early
Warning System in WCSD
Essential Question• How can we use the Early Warning System to
better develop relationships with students as we support them on their pathways to graduation?
Fist to 5Fist = I have never heard of the WCSD’s Early Warning System (previously the Risk Index).1 = I have heard of it.2 = I have seen the index.3 = I have seen one or more student’s risk.4 = I know where I can get the index for my own students.5 = I have pulled the Early Warning System data for my students and consistently use it to plan supports for my students.
Need for Early Identification
57% 55% 56% 56%
WCSD Cohort Graduation Rates (2006 -2009)
2005-20062006-20072007-20082008-2009
2,078 Non-Graduates in 2009:
• Avg. credits earned: 7.15/22.5
• Credits earned: 0 - 22 • Average GPA: 1.58
Development of EWS• Two clear paths of student disengagement from school:
(1) Academic failure and struggle; (2) Behavioral reactions to school (misbehavior, school aversion; Janosz et al., 2000).
• Attendance, behavior, and course failures in 6th grade predicted 60% of dropouts (Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver, 2007)
• Early interventions targeting attendance, behavior, and course failure can curb dropout (e.g. Balfanz et al., 2006; Herlihy & Kemple, 2005; Crone, Horner, & Hawken, 2004, Horner, Sugai, Todd, & Lewis-Palmer, 2005)
WCSD Early Warning SystemAttendance (0 - 2)
Transiency (0 - 2)
Retention (0 - 2)
Reading/Math Scores (0 - 4)
Credit Deficiency (0 - 4)
Suspension (0 – 1)
TOTAL RISK SCORE (0 – 15)
0 = No Risk 1 = Low Risk2 = Moderate Risk3+ = High Risk
(Modified) WCSD Early Warning System
Attendance (0 - 2)
Transiency (0 - 2)
Retention (0 - 2)
Reading/Math Scores (0 - 4)
Credit Deficiency (0 - 4)
Suspension (0 – 2)
TOTAL RISK SCORE (0 – 12)
0 = No Risk 1 = Low Risk2 = Moderate Risk3+ = High Risk
Specific Calculations available in your bookAND at https://BIG
DemographicsBreakdown of Risk Status by Each Racial/Ethnic Population
Asian
Black
Cauca
sian
Hispa
nic
Amer
ican
Indi
an
Multi-
Racia
l
Pacifi
c Isla
nder
Tota
l0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
71%
40%
52% 51%
38%
54%
45%
52%
18%
25% 27%24%
31%27% 28%
25%
6%
14%11% 12%
15%11%
16%11%
5%
21%
9%14% 15%
9% 11% 11%
No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk
DemographicsBreakdown of Risk Status by Each Special Program Population
FRL IEP LEP CIT GT0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
32%
20%
32%
20%
64%
22%
14%19%
16%
26%
15% 15% 14%16%
7%
31%
51%
35%
48%
2%
No RiskLow RiskModerate RiskHigh Risk
How Prescient is the EWS?Outcomes of Students Identified at Varying Levels of Risk:• Using the Original Index• Using the Modified Index (no test scores)
Risk Index 2012-2013 Risk Index Status and % Suspended at Least Once in 2013-2014
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3%5%
8%
20%
Percent of Students Suspended at Least Once by Risk Category
No Risk Low RiskModerate
RiskHigh Risk
Original Risk Index
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
86%
76%
57%
21%
85%
72%
50%
16%
89%
77%
54%
22%
Percent Proficient in Reading, Math, and Science
By Risk Category
Reading Math Science
No Risk Low RiskModerate
RiskHigh Risk
Original Risk Index
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
3%5%
8%
23%
Percent of Students Suspended at Least Once
by Risk Category
No Risk Low RiskModerate
RiskHigh Risk
Modified Risk Index
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
12%14%
22%
36%
31% 29%
19%
9%
Reading CRT: Percent in Each Achievement Level
By Risk Status
Emergent Approaches Standard Meets Standard Exceeds Standard
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk
Modified Risk Index
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0
10
20
30
40
50
6055 53
49
41
Median Student Growth Percentile in MathBy Risk Status
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk
Modified Risk Index
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
3.072.85
2.46
1.76
High School Grade Point Average (GPA) By Risk Status
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk
Modified Risk Index
And What About Graduation?
No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
89%
79%
67%
31%
0% 0% 1%
12%
3%9%
18%
39%
8%11%
14%19%
Graduated(N = 2,995)
Adjusted/Adult Diploma (N = 171)
Dropout/Vanished (N = 784)
Following our Freshmen Through High School9th Grader Risk Status (2010-2011) and 4-Year Cohort Graduation Outcomes (Class of 2014)
N = 4,516
No Risk Low RiskModerate
RiskHigh Risk
But…not a perfect predictor• 31% (n = 417) of High Risk 9th graders DID graduate• 67% (n = 459) of Moderate Risk 9th graders DID
graduate
How do we promote resilience and persistence?
Activity: Swap Meet!• What is a characteristic of resilient kids you have
observed in your work?
• Some protective factors may seem beyond the reach of the school (e.g. family support, attendance). What is a strategy you have used to support at-risk students’ resiliency?
• How can the EWS be used in your PLCs and IATs with an aim toward strengthening personal relationships and supporting core instructional practice?
Debrief
PLC Problem-Solving Process1. Review the forms within your book (for your grade
level)2. On the same poster paper, record:
1. Universal supports and targeted supports you have within your classroom/school for the areas of need
2. Universal supports and targeted supports you need within your classroom/school for the areas of need
How Do We Obtain this Data?
B.I.G.(Business Intelligence Gateway)
Early Warning Risk scores
built into data warehouse dashboards
Discussion