Evaluation of the OECD Development Assistance Committee Contributions with the Trade Committee to the WTO-led Aid for Trade Initiative

8th April 2014

Outline

1. Overview of the Evaluation

2. Methodology

3. Findings

4. Conclusions and Ideas for the Future

Overview of the Evaluation

• OECD DAC with the Trade Committee (“OECD”) produces outputs that aim to help other agencies do more and better Aid for Trade (AfT).

• OECD does not itself design, implement, or fund AfT projects.

• Given the nature and scope of OECD’s work, this is not a traditional impact evaluation• Contribution Analysis: Exploration of the contribution a

policy or intervention is making to observed processes and results.

Methodology

• Contribution analysis is designed to recognize the limits of causal attribution in a context in which other agents and programs are numerous, and OECD’s work interacts heavily with them.

• Contribution analysis based on:• Literature review.• Interviews of key stakeholders.• Survey of capital-based officials in donor countries,

partner countries, and regional economic commissions.

Methodology

• Three streams of OECD’s work:• Monitoring, and data collection and

dissemination.• Policy analysis.• Policy dialogue.

• Work streams are the basis for a Theory of Change, upon which the analysis is built.

Findings

• The team tested 13 hypotheses across the Pathways of Change from Activities to the Goal - OECD scored either “Very true” or “True” on each hypothesis.

• As an example of selected findings, the two hypotheses linking activities to outputs:• OECD’s activities in the areas of monitoring, policy analysis,

and policy dialogue are sufficient in quantity and regularity to support the underlying rationale for its AfT intervention – Very true

• Stakeholders are aware of OECD’s activities, and participate in or use them as appropriate – Very true

Findings – Quality of OECD’s products

Channel Average Score % NA

Donor Countries

Monitoring 4.3 25%

Policy Analysis 3.7 46%

Policy Dialogue 3.8 55%

Partner Countries and RECs

Monitoring 4.3 15%

Policy Analysis 4.2 14%

Policy Dialogue 4.1 25%

Note: Scores 1-5, 5 indicating highest score. Lower % NA indicates high rate of response and higher confidence level for score.

Findings – Usefulness of OECD’s work

Note: Scores 1-5, 5 indicating highest score. Lower % NA indicates high rate of response and higher confidence level for score.

Findings – Effectiveness of OECD’s work

Note: Scores 1-5, 5 indicating highest score. Lower % NA indicates high rate of response and higher confidence level for score.

FindingsDespite a difficult budgetary environment, AfT has risen from 33% of totalsector allocable ODA in 2005 to nearly 40% in 2012.

Source: OECD.

2002-2005 avg.

2006-08 avg. 2009 2010 2011 20120

30

60

90

120

150

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total sector allocable (left axis)

AFT share (%)

USD billion (2012 constant) Share (%)

Findings• OECD’s joint work with WTO, particularly AfT at a Glance

stood out as being particularly well-viewed by stakeholders, and effective in promoting monitoring of the AfT Initiative.• Close partnership between the two organizations.• Effective working relationship with WTO means that the reach of

OECD’s work, and especially joint products, extends globally, beyond OECD’s members.

• AfT at a Glance 2013 has been downloaded approximately 140,000 times from the OECD and WTO websites.

• OECD’s data work also widely praised:• Serious monitoring and evaluation of AfT would be close to

impossible without the Creditor Reporting System (CRS).

Conclusions and Ideas for the Future

• OECD’s work on AfT has been highly relevant, effective, and efficient in terms of its relationship to the WTO-led AfT Initiative.• The monitoring function is particularly singled out

by stakeholders.• Policy analysis and policy dialogue are also

positively viewed, with a slightly higher regard for the former.

Conclusions and Ideas for the Future

• A number of interview respondents indicated possible directions for OECD’s future work on AfT, as ideas for the consideration of member countries:• Scaling up of OECD’s role, especially in fostering

independent monitoring and evaluation work.• Further engagement with partner countries outside the Paris-

Geneva nexus.• Building on strong collaboration between DCD and TAD to

exploit respective comparative advantages.• Aid for Trade Facilitation following Bali; Trade-related South-

South cooperation; Regional AfT; Private sector engagement