Evaluation of Insect Resistance Management Models昆虫抗性管理模型的评价

• Stage I Genetics (Validation) 阶段 I 遗传学（确认）• Stage II Biology and Ecology 阶段 II 生物学和生态学• Stage III Toxin Distribution in Landscape 阶段 III 田间毒素分布• Stage IV Management 阶段 IV 管理

Modeler建模型者

Crop作物 Lepidoptera

鳞翅类Coleoptera甲虫类

AndowCorn玉米 Ostrinia nubilalis Diabrotica spp.

CaprioCotton/Corn棉花／玉米 O. nubilalis

GuseCorn玉米 O. nubilalis

Diatraea grandiosellaD. virgifera virgifera

OnstadCorn玉米 O. nubilalis

D. grandiosellaDiabrotica spp.

PeckCotton棉花 Heliothis virescens

StorerCotton/Corn棉花／玉米 Helicoverpa zea Diabrotica spp.

SistersonCotton棉花 Pectinophora

gossypiella

Rate of Resistance Evolution耐受性进化的速度• Current Frequency of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的目前发生率• Dominance of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的优势• Proportion of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的比例• Arrangement of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的布局

Rate of Resistance Evolution耐受性进化的速度• Current Frequency of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的目前频率

– Field Sampling, Bioassays and Genetic Testing 田间采样，生物测定和基因测试

• Dominance of Resistance Allele抗性等位基因的优势– Maintain High Toxicity and Breeding Programs 保持高毒性和繁殖

• Proportion of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的比例– Regulate Sales and Grower Compliance调节销售和生产的一致

• Arrangement of Transgenic and Refuge Fields 转基因和避难地的布局

– Grower Practices and Compliance 生产措施和认同

q 0 = 0

.02

q 0 = 0

.01

q 0 = 0

.005

Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic 0.5 0.01 0.02 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00

Res

ista

nce

Alle

le

Freq

uenc

yIncreased Initial Allele Frequency Shortens Time to Resistance.提高起始等位基因频率缩短产生抗性时间

抗性等位

基因频率

转基因避难地

后代

Wrs

= 0

.03

Wrs

= 0

.02

Wrs

= 0

.01

q0 = 0.005 Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic 0.5 0.01 x.xx 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00

Resistance Evolves faster with Increased Dominance随着优势增加抗性进化加快R

esis

tanc

e A

llele

Fr

eque

ncy

抗性等位

基因频率

后代转基因避难地

Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic 0.5 0.01 x.xx 1.00 Refuge 0.5 1.00 1.00 1.00

DominantWrs = 0.99

RecessiveWrs = 0.02

Codominance Wrs = 0.50

q0 = 0.005

Refuge Strategies Depend on High-Dose CropsCreating Functionally Recessive Heterozygote避难区策略依赖于产生功能性隐性异质体的高剂量作物

Res

ista

nce

Alle

le

Freq

uenc

y

后代

抗性等位

基因频率

转基因避难地

Wss < Wrs < WrrTransgenic x.x 0.01 0.02 1.00 Refuge 1-T 1.00 1.00 1.00

P(T) = 0.80

P(T) = 0.50

P(T) = 0.40

q0 = 0.005

Proportion of Transgenic [ P(T) ] Affects Time to Resistance转基因庄稼的比例影响产生抗性的比例R

esis

tanc

e A

llele

Fr

eque

ncy

后代

抗性等位

基因频率

转基因避难地

Pre-Mating Dispersal

交配前扩散Mating

交配

Oviposition

产卵

New Year新年

Overwintering 过冬Mortality 死亡

Yes

No

Post-Mating Dispersal

交配后扩散Mortality 死亡

Bt Toxin Bt 毒素Insecticide 杀虫剂Density Dependent

密度依赖性的Density Independent

密度非依赖性的

End of Growing Season生长季节结束

Assign Landscape

指定地块

New Generation新一代

Pre-Mating Dispersal

交配前扩散Mating

交配

Oviposition

产卵

NewYear

OverwinteringMortality

Yes

No

Post-Mating Dispersal

交配后扩散Mortality

Bt Toxin

Insecticide

Density Dependent

Density Independent

End ofGrowing Season

Assign Landscape

分配地块

NewGeneration

Dispersal Behaviors of the Insect Interact with the Landscape Configuration to

Determine the Genetic Distribution昆虫扩散行为与地貌的相互作用决定遗传分布

Refuge避难区

Non-Crop Areas非作物区

Transgenic转基因植物区

Assign Crop Type and Location Randomly随机分派作物类别和位置

Spatially Explicit Model with Stochastic Placement随机布置的空间简要模型

Evaluate outcome frommany iterations (100-1000’s)评价不同迭代次数结果（ 100 － 1000 ’ ）

Refuge 避难区

Non-Crop Areas 非作物区

Transgenic转基因植物区

Simulation Models influenced by landscape and insect dispersal behavior 模拟模型受土地和昆虫的扩散行为影响

Dispersal Distance of Adults before andafter mating.交配前后成虫的扩散距离

Refuge避难区

Non-Crop Areas非作物区

Transgenic转基因植物区

Models Identify the Spatial Locations of Greatest Risk模型区分最大风险的空间位置

Greatest Risk of Resistance Evolving耐受性演化的高风险区

Refuge避难区

Non-Crop Areas非作物区

Transgenic转基因植物区

Distribute Genetics According to Dispersal Behavior根据扩散行为得到的基因分布Dispersal Distance of Adult Insects:2 fields, any direction成虫扩散距离： 2 块地，任何方向

Refuge避难区

Non-Crop Areas非作物区

Transgenic转基因植物区

“Hotspots” of Resistant Populations are mostLikely to Develop Where Refuges Don’t Exist.没有避难区的地方很可能产生群体抗性“热点”

Greatest Risk of Resistance Evolving抗性演化的高风险区

Refuge避难区

Non-Crop Areas非作物区

Transgenic转基因区

Resistance Evolves First in a “Hotspot” and Disperses through the Population.抗性在“热点”区产生后扩散

Resistant Population Disperses from HotspotsTo Nearby Fields抗性群体从热点区扩散到附近的地里

Pre-Mating Dispersal

交配前扩散Mating

交配

Oviposition

产卵

New Year新年

Overwintering 过冬Mortality 死亡

Yes

No

Post-Mating Dispersal

交配后扩散Mortality 死亡

Bt Toxin Bt 毒素Insecticide 杀虫剂Density Dependent

密度依赖性的Density Independent

密度非依赖性的

End of Growing Season生长季节结束

Assign Landscape

指定地块

New Generation新一代

Pre-Mating Dispersal Mating

NewYear

OverwinteringMortality

Yes

No

Post-Mating Dispersal

End ofGrowing Season

Assign Landscape

NewGeneration

The Sequence and Magnitude of Mortality Events Can Change the Outcome.死亡的次序和强度会改变结果

Oviposition

产卵

Mortality 死亡Bt Toxin Bt 毒素Insecticide 杀虫剂Density Dependent

密度依赖性的Density Independent

密度非依赖性的

Generations till Resistance EvolvesBased on Theoretical Standards基于理论标准产生抗性的后代

后代

转基因比例

Better Understanding of Evolutionary TheoryNeeded to Compare Different

Landscape Management Strategies更好的理解进化理论需要比较不同的土地管理方式

后代

转基因比例

Simulation Models are Time Consuming

Often Truncated at 100-200 Generations模拟模型是很耗时的经常会缩到 100 － 200 代后代

转基因比例

Need to Understand theConfidence Boundaries

Resulting fromLandscape Management and

Stochastic Inputs需要理解由于土地管理和随机分布引起的置信区间

Slower慢Faster快

后代

转基因比例