evaluating the full spectrum of efforts by the state to control terrorism laura dugan university of...
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![Page 1: Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by the State to Control Terrorism Laura Dugan University of Maryland Erica Chenoweth Wesleyan University](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022103111/55170374550346f5558b5081/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by
the State to Control Terrorism
Laura DuganUniversity of Maryland
Erica ChenowethWesleyan University
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How we Typically Think of Counterterrorism
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Effects might Depend on Regional Diversity
• Government Legitimacy• Economic and Social Well-Being of
Citizens—or terrorist constituency• Political Literacy• Religious Influences
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Effects Might Depend on Terrorist Organizational Diversity
• Apocalyptic• Single Issue• Religious• Nationalist• Dependent on Constituency• Highly Competitive with Other
Organizations• And so on…
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Dealing with the Devil:START funded research with Erica Chenoweth
Considers the full range of approaches to countering terrorism from fully conciliatory
to excessively repressive, with an eye toward developing a global counterterrorism
database.
Only by understanding the optimal counterterrorism strategy that is best suited
across a spectrum of conditions can we improve our chances of reducing global
terrorism.
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More Specifically
We will collect data from five Middle East countries on a wide range of government actions directed toward
perpetrators of terrorism.
AlgeriaEgypt
Lebanon
Israel
Turkey
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Sample Actions
patrol
Martial law
Stakeoutsinternment
sniper
Investigatin
g Abuses
raid
harassrelease
deploy
beating
Boycott supporters
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Dimensions of Countering Terrorism
Discriminate
Iniscriminate
Repressive Conciliatory
AC
TIO
N
TARGET
ACTOR TYPE
Material
Immaterial
Justice Politician
Police Military
V/NV
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Conciliatory-Repressive Scale
1. Accommodation2. Conciliatory action3. Conciliatory statement or intention4. Neutral or ambiguous5. Verbal conflict6. Physical conflict7. Extreme repression (intent to kill)
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Data Collection Strategy
• Literature Search• Textual Analysis by Augmented
Replacement Instructions (TABARI)1. Searches lead sentences of news
sources based on complex dictionary that specifies subject, verb and object (actor-action-target). (international event data)
2. Filters hits into a new file and a database that captures key variables.
3. Keep action by State Actors against Sub-State Actors
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Preliminary Findings for Israel - Actors
Israeli Actors
Military46%
Politician45%
Police5%
Judiciary4%
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Israeli TargetsIsraeli Action Targets
Palestinians68.8%
Palestinian Terrorists
22.0%
Lebanese Terrorists
0.8%Israelis8.0%
Lebanese0.3%
Other0.1%
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Actions Captured in TABARI
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Actions by IsraelActons By Israel
0
50
100
150
200
250
Year
Act
ion
Fre
qu
ency
Accomodation/Full Concessions Conciliatory ActionConciliatory Statement or Intentions Neutral or AmbiguousVerbal Conflict Physical ConflictExtreme Repression (deaths)
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Actions by IsraelIsrael Actions Toward Sub-State Actors
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Years
Fre
qu
en
cy
of
Ac
tio
ns
Repressive ActionsNeutral ActionsConciliatory Actions
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Repressive Actions & TerrorismRepressive Actions by Government and Terror Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Rep
res
sive
Ac
tio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er
of
Ter
ror
Att
ack
s
Repressive ActionsTerror Attacks
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Conciliatory Actions & TerrorismConciliatory Actions by Government and Terror Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Co
nc
ilia
tory
Ac
tio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nu
mb
er
of
Ter
ror
Att
ack
s
Conciliatory ActionsTerror Attacks
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All Actions & TerrorismActions and Terror Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Year
Ac
tio
ns
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ter
ror
Att
acks
Conciliatory ActionsRepressive ActionsTerror Attacks
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Methods to Assessing Efficacy
• Vector Autoregression: multiple time series of different types of actions and terrorist attacks by different perpetrators.
• Series Hazard Modeling: Analysis of more discrete campaigns countering terrorism on the hazard of continued attacks.
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Next Steps
• Complete data for remaining 4 countries
• Use original articles to collect more details about actions and to link them through campaigns.– Fill in the detail
• Extend data collection to remaining 7 additional countries including more democracies.
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Additional SlideActions by Israel
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
conciliatory repressive
materialimmaterial