evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling marc parisien 1, victor kafka 2,...

Evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling

Marc Parisien1, Victor Kafka2, Bernie Todd1, Kelvin Hirsch1, and Suzanne Lavoie1

1Canadian Forest Service2Parks Canada Agency

Presentation to the NCE Meeting in Toronto, Feb 11/12, 2003

Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles CanadaCanadian Forest Service Service canadien des forets



•Increasing knowledge of factors affecting landscape flammability

•However, predicting landscape flammability has been largely unattained

•This is even more challenging in the North American boreal forest

• Most area burned is caused by few large and intense fires

• Large spatial variations in the fire regime

Introduction



What we needWhat we need

• To quantatively evaluate landscape flammability (i.e., burn probability)

Introduction

What we knowWhat we know

• It is possible to predict individual fire behavior using the factors that affect physical fire spread (weather, fuels, topography)

• Larger-scale aspects of the fire regime are best predicted probabilistically (i.e., ignitions, fire weather)

What we haveWhat we have• Fire growth models simulating physical fire spread

• Historical wildfire information



Objective

1. To evaluate burn probabilities (BP) across a landscape using a modelling approach that combines

the physical components of fire spread

other probabilistic components of the fire regime

BURN-P3 BURN-P3 (Probability, Prediction, and (Probability, Prediction, and Planning)Planning)

Maps the probability of burning of the actual actual landscapelandscape under current burning conditionscurrent burning conditions submitted to historical variabilityhistorical variability



Study Area: Central Saskatchewan

Area: 15 M hectares



Components of the Model

PHYSICAL FIRE GROWTHPHYSICAL FIRE GROWTH

Determined from historical fire databases

The information is drawn from statistical distributions

Simulates the growth of escaped fires (200 ha)

Mec

han

isti

cM

ech

anis

tic

FIRE WEATHERFIRE WEATHER

NUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRESNUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRES

NUMBER OF FIRE SPREAD DAYSNUMBER OF FIRE SPREAD DAYS

IGNITION LOCATIONSIGNITION LOCATIONS

Pro

bab

ilis

tic

Pro

bab

ilis

tic



• Raster-based model

• Based on Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System theory

•Rate of spread equations

•Fire behavior

• Inputs•Hourly fire weather

•Forest fuels

•Topography

• Produces maps of the fire perimeter and fire behavior

WILDFIRE Fire Growth WILDFIRE Fire Growth ModelModel

Fire growth modeling



Components of the Model

NUMBER OF ITERATIONSNUMBER OF ITERATIONS

FIRE WEATHERFIRE WEATHER

NUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRESNUMBER OF ESCAPED FIRES

NUMBER OF FIRE SPREAD DAYSNUMBER OF FIRE SPREAD DAYS

IGNITION LOCATIONSIGNITION LOCATIONS

PHYSICAL FIRE GROWTHPHYSICAL FIRE GROWTH

SIMULATIONS STOREDSIMULATIONS STORED

Probability of burning Probability of burning ==

Number of times each cell Number of times each cell burnedburned

Number of iterationNumber of iteration



Burn probability (%)

Burn probability mapBurn probability map

for the 2003 fire seasonfor the 2003 fire season



What’s next?

1.1. Integrating Prometheus in BURN-P3Integrating Prometheus in BURN-P3• More realistic fire growth modeling

• Increased functionality

• Greater user base

2.2. Creating a graphic user interface for Creating a graphic user interface for BURN-P3BURN-P3

• BURN-P3 will become one of the first fire management strategic planning tools

• Available Canada-wide, to any interested user

• Flexible, user-friendly tool (i.e., not a strict model)

• On-going process, open to suggestions from operations

Questions?Questions?

25 km

Forest B

Forest A

Burn probability (%)



Number of fires from 1981 to 2002

Julian Day

Nu

mb

er

of

fire

s

50 150 250 350

Spring Summer

Study area



1

Number of fires from 1981 to 2002

Study area



Fire Size Distribution

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5

Size class (105 ha)

0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5

Pro

port

ion

of f

ires

(%)

0

25

50

75Historical fires Simulated fires



Reduction in BP

Reduction in BP outside the perimeterReduction in BP outside the perimeter

1.1. Large burns disrupt the paths of incoming Large burns disrupt the paths of incoming

firesfires

2.2. The chance that fires ignite nearby is The chance that fires ignite nearby is

decreaseddecreased

500 iterations

Objective #2: Heterogeneous (actual) Objective #2: Heterogeneous (actual) landscapelandscape

Peripheral reduction in BP due to:

1. Different forest fuels

2. The amount and configuration of landscape features

3. The direction of predominant winds

73,000 ha



Objective #2: homogeneous landscapes

Reduction in BP Reduction in BP according to:according to:•The shape of old burns

•The size of old burns• 1000 ha

• 10,000 ha

• 100,000 ha

All factors are held All factors are held constant except:constant except:

•Fire weatherFire weather

•Number of fire spread Number of fire spread daysdays

Old burn (non fuel)

100,000 ha

Boreal spruce fuel type

(most flammable)

100,000 ha

1000 iterations

Inside buffer

Average BP = 1.9%Average BP = 1.9%

Outside buffer


5-km buffer

1000 iterations

1-km buffer

2 to 5-km buffer1-km buffer


2 to 5-km buffer


Percent difference in BP between:•The two buffers:The two buffers: 25% 25%•The 1-km buffer and outside The 1-km buffer and outside

the buffer:the buffer: 42% 42%

1000 iterations

Kootenay ParkKootenay Park

LodgeLodge2003 fire2003 fire

2001 fire2001 fire

Questions?



Reduction in Landscape Flammability

Fires 1945 to 2002Present FBP fuels

(LANDSAT)

Non fuel



SELECTION OF FIRE WEATHER RECORDS

(DAYS)

Determine ISI for HFI 4000 kW/m for C-2, C-3, and C-4

12 years of historicaldaily fire weather data

(40 wx stations) Store by season (2) and weather region (8)

TOTAL =TOTAL =

16 weather files16 weather files

Retrieve days with high/extreme fire weather

(ISI 8.6)

evaluating landscape flammability through simulation modeling marc parisien 1, victor kafka 2,...

Documents

forets slide

nce meeting

parks canada agency

forets components

landscape flammability

historical variability

regime introduction

forets objective