european summit 2011 - agrumi - philippe binard freshfel download

8/3/2019 European Summit 2011 - Agrumi - Philippe Binard Freshfel Download

1/24

Citrus outlook

2011/2012

Philippe Binard

General DelegateFreshfel Europe


2/24

Citrus update and forecast

!Review NH season 2010/2011

! Review SH season 2011

! Forecast 20112012 NH

! Conclusions


3/24

Freshfel Europe

Freshfel Shaffe citrus WG

Date Specific Topic Type

September Preliminary NH forecast / SHEnding Season

TC

October NH Forecast / SH Balance TC

December NH on going season TC

February Preliminary SH Forecast Development NH

PM

April SH Forecast / NH Ending Situation TC

July SH on going season TC

Freshfel SHAFFE Citrus WG

Freshfel :

Chair: Jose Antonio Garcia ( Ailimpo)Vice Chair : Salvo Laudani (Oranfrizer/ Fruitimprese)SHAFFE :

Adolfo Storni ( Argentina )


4/24

Balance Northern Hemisphere season 2010

2011


5/24

NH season 2010/2011 One of the most complex season with availability of 18.5

Mln T in the Med region = >

larger volume were available (almost 500.000T more than previousyear)

Strong production both in Turkey and Spain

Poor price return across the varieties

Turkey : looking to other destinations than EU, eastwardsand northwards

Ongoing SH presence on EU markets

World markets overall struggling as well as other products EHEC impact for Spain at end of season


6/24

Outlook SH season 2011


7/24

Southern hemisphere

! Production at 6.5 Mln T

! Export at 2.3 Mln T down so far by 2.3 %

TOTAL SH

Production 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Var 2011/2010 Var 2011/Av 03/10

Oranges 2.973.698 3.062.463 3.267.705 3.245.765 3.554.082 3.315.615 3.087.125 3.340.953 3.134.8906,17%

2,97%

Mandarins 1.031.361 1.276.653 1.201.231 1.230.760 1.333.358 1.158.817 1.025.618 1.047.023 950.548 9,21% 18,27%

Lemons 1.919.431 1.989.827 2.183.012 2.231.554 2.289.230 2.120.695 1.888.105 1.644.631 1.935.472 17,68% 4,81%

Grapefruit 554.448 536.721 711.978 633.882 677.574 630.726 663.407 465.824 522.237 12,11% 14,29%

Total 6.478.938 6.865.664 7.363.926 7.341.961 7.854.244 7.225.853 6.664.255 6.498.431 6.543.147 0,69% 7,01%

Export 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Var 2011/2010 Var 2011/Av 03/10

Oranges 1.116.227 1.061.577 1.169.109 1.170.117 1.379.134 1.324.260 1.209.621 1.382.546 1.279.825 7,43% 4,34%

Mandarins 254.892 270.463 275.181 296.999 335.256 338.872 360.126 389.319 390.620 0,33% 23,95%Lemons 457.417 484.298 539.139 484.448 529.026 599.718 431.350 411.679 413.762 0,51% 15,92%

Grapefruit 200.061 219.043 292.409 181.733 249.511 226.488 233.386 198.286 242.274 22,18% 7,62%

Total 2.028.597 2.035.381 2.275.838 2.133.297 2.492.927 2.489.338 2.234.483 2.381.830 2.326.481 2,32% 2,99%


8/24

SH and market summary Overall SH export to international market down by 2.3 %

Saturated demand in Russia and rolling effect onto Middle Eastmarkets

Asian market : not buoyant Japan only moving slowly South EastAsian market not as strong as previous year

European market : complex after EHEC crisis, summer fruit complexity, late end of NH season but larger volume of oranges and grapefruit

On product basis : Soft citrus : poor quality , little demand

Oranges : affected by poor NH season with late end

Lemons : improved given lower Argentine volume

Grapefruit : the most complex , pending stocks Export 2009 2010 2011 (up to week 38)Oranges 419. 761 462.005 496.711

Soft citrus 162. 073 167.937 147.675

Lemons 199. 612 225.412 206.059

Grapefruits 111.831 81.123 134.873

Total 893.277 936.477 985.318

SH Export to EU


9/24

Outlook Northern hemsiphere

2010/2011


10/24

Key points EU Med production

EU Med production down by 5% at 10 Mln T

! Spain:! Decrease of citrus production by 10.6% . Soft citrus will be 12.9% lower , oranges 10.4% lower lemons down by

6.5% ( Verna up by 8% but Fino down by 10%),grapefruit up by 5.5%

! Better commercial size still to be influenced by upcoming rain ,slightly earlier start for picking for all varieties exceptfor lemon , higher juice content

! Main focus on EU markets, look for opportunities on 1/3 countries. Some stock of juice.

! Italy:! Similar as two years ago

! Oranges production to be up by 18%

! Soft citrus declining by 9.4%

! Lemons to be stable! Cyprus

! Lower production except for oranges ( stable ) leading to lower export to EU market ( 8% ) and external trade ( 2.5%)

! High

! Greece:! Lower orange production to 500/550.000 T leading to lower domestic supply & processing and stable EU shipment

and export! Stable soft citrus production, 0% to EU markets, 12% to local market

! Slight delay in picking, size on average


11/24

Key points Non EU Med production

Non EU production to be up by 6 % to 8, 4 Mln T

! Turkey:

! Production to increase by 22% at 3.4 Mln T ( in particular for oranges , lemons and grapefruit; due toalternaria easy peeler declining ) exports up by 7.8%

! Israel:

! Recovery after peak low last season at 520.000 T last year => + 30% and also up 10% to average

! Concerns for the grapefruit markets

! Egypt: Remains difficult to get estimates... !!!!!

! Morocco:

! Production up by 6% to 1.8 Mln T

! Soft citrus to be delayed by 10 days smaller/normal size

! Oranges : on schedule, some consequences of heavy t in Souss

USA: official data to be released on 12 October

! Florida: slightly large crop despite citrus acreage down by 2.3 %

! Texas: lower crop due to February freeze

! California : Lower by 8% after bumper crop in 2010 ; late maturity. Expansion of soft citrus


12/24

Med forecast orange

Med production estimated 2 % up to last year NH at 9.7 Mnl T

EU production : 2% at 5.5 Mln T( 56.8% of Med prod compared to 59,1%last year )

Non EU production : +8% at 4.2 Mln T

2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 (10/11)/(11/12)

SPAIN 2.705.000 3.462.571 2.756.042 2.997.000 2.685.000 -10%

CYPRUS 29.200 23.360 24.000 24.000 24.000 0%

ITALY 2.293.500 1.500.000 2.293.500 1.950.000 2.300.000 18%

GREECE 930.500 802.000 860.000 685.000 525.000 -23%

5.958.200 5.787.931 5.933.542 5.656.000 5.534.000 -2%

MOROCCO 732.400 790.000 710.000 875.000 976.000 12%

TURKEY 1.173.000 1.230.000 1.230.000 1.260.000 1.386.000 10%

EGYPT 1.800.000 1.620.000 1.700.000 1.700.000 1.700.000 0%

ISRAEL 115.000 173.000 140.000 73.500 145.000 97%

3.820.400 3.813.000 3.780.000 3.908.500 4.207.000 8%

9.778.600 9.600.931 9.713.542 9.564.500 9.741.000 2%

TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES

TOTAL MED BASIN

ORANGESProduction Production Production Production VariationProd. Forecast


13/24

Export orange

Med export to all destination close to 3.3 Mln T due to

Increase on non EU ( +90.000 T ) at 1.5 Mln T Decrease from EU suppliers both Spain and Greece are down ( 150.000 T)

at 1.77 Mln T

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

SPAIN 1.112.393 1.445.061 1.325.000

CYPRUS 3.447 8.500 8.500

ITALY 132.589 117.400 130.000

GREECE 435.918 335.000 310.000

. . . . . .

MOROCCO 216.000 170.000 222.000

TURKEY 201.324 328.761 361.093EGYPT 855.000 900.000 900.000

ISRAEL 35.000 12.500 25.000

1.307.324 1.411.261 1.508.093

2.991.671 3.317.222 3.281.593

NON EU MED

TOTAL MED BASIN

Exports ExportsExportsORANGES


14/24

Med forecast soft citrus Med production estimated to be 8% down at 4.972.000 T

EU production : 11% ( 57,2% compared to 59% last year )

Non EU production4%

EASY PEELERS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Variation

SPAIN 2.040.000 2.229.626 2.021.023 2.197.000 1.914.000 -13%

CYPRUS 61.300 49.040 50.000 55.000 51.000 -7%

ITALY 702.700 527.000 702.700 850.000 770.000 -9%

GREECE 64.910 58.500 62.000 100.000 100.000 0%

TOTAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 2.868.910 2.864.166 2.835.723 3.202.000 2.835.000 -11%

MOROCCO 471.600 531.000 570.000 781.000 763.000 -2%

TURKEY 495.000 650.000 500.000 687.500 584.375 -15%

EGYPT 660.000 594.000 625.000 625.000 625.000 0%

ISRAEL 133.000 130.000 150.000 135.000 165.000 22%

TOTAL OTHER MED COUNTRIES 1.759.600 1.905.000 1.845.000 2.228.500 2.137.375 -4%

TOTAL MED BASIN 4.628.510 4.769.166 4.680.723 5.430.500 4.972.375 -8%


15/24

Export soft citrus Med export to be lower by 150.000 T but

Lower EU export by 170.000 T ( Spain )

Peak volume of export at 900.000 T , including larger export target forTurkey despite lower crop

EASY PEELERS 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

SPAIN 1.663.747 1.621.220 1.454.000

CYPRUS 41.705 28.000 26.000

ITALY 114.077 117.400 115.000

GREECE 99.471 77.500 75.000

EU MED 1.918.999 1.844.120 1.670.000

MOROCCO 309.000 347.000 350.000

TURKEY 327.259 451.282 473.846

EGYPT 10.000 10.000 10.000

ISRAEL 60.000 56.000 70.000

NON EU MED 706.259 864.282 903.846

TOTAL MED BASIN 2.625.258 2.708.402 2.573.846


16/24

Med forecast lemon

Total Med production to be 10=% up to

3.098.000T EU production : 4% at 1.5 Mln T ( 50.6% of Med

production compared to 55.5% last year )

Non EU production : +17 % also at 1.5 Mln TLEMONS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 VariationSPAIN 552.192 945.562 673.075 930.512 870.000 -7%

CYPRUS 17.500 14.000 15.000 16.500 18.300 11%

ITALY 546.600 655.920 655.920 488.000 600.000 23%

GREECE 46.500 30.500 40.000 25.000 30.000 20%

1.162.792 1.645.982 1.383.995 1.460.012 1.518.300 4%

MOROCCO (Other citru 35.000 39.000 40.000 80.000 80.000 0%

TURKEY 500.000 550.000 750.000 860.000 1.075.000 25%EGYPT 335.000 301.500 320.000 320.000 320.000 0%

ISRAEL 64.000 45.000 55.000 43.500 55.000 26%

934.000 935.500 1.165.000 1.303.500 1.530.000 17%

2.096.792 2.581.482 2.548.995 2.763.512 3.048.300 10%



TOTAL MED BASIN


17/24

Export lemon

Med export at 1.050.000 T

EU export at 509.000 T Ongoing push from Turkey at 512.000 T

LEMONS 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

SPAIN 325.025 464.627 475.000

CYPRUS 3.997 3.600 4.000

ITALY 18.382 29.700 25.000

GREECE 2.385 3.000 5.000

EU MED 349.788 500.927 509.000

MOROCCO (Other citrus) 7.000 7.000 7.000

TURKEY 417.858 465.867 512.454EGYPT 23.000 20.000 20.000

ISRAEL 3.000 500 2.000

NON EU MED 450.858 493.367 541.454

TOTAL MED BASIN 800.646 994.294 1.050.454


18/24

Med grapefruit production

Med grapefruit production to be up by 24 % at 665.000T

EU production stable at 77.000 TNon EU production pushed up by Turkey to

588.000 T

GRAPEFUITS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Variation

SPAIN 46.194 50.814 52.000 53.070 56.000 6%

CYPRUS 28.600 22.800 23.000 23.000 20.200 -12%

ITALY 0 0 0 0 0 -

GREECE 7.300 6.500 7.000 1.000 1.000 0%

82.094 80.114 82.000 77.070 77.200 0%

MOROCCO 0 0 0 0 0 -

TURKEY 245.000 170.000 300.000 270.000 378.000 40%EGYPT 0 0 0 0 0 -

ISRAEL 235.000 220.000 215.000 188.000 210.000 12%

480.000 390.000 515.000 458.000 588.000 28%

562.094 470.114 597.000 535.070 665.200 24%



TOTAL MED BASIN


19/24

Grapefruit export

Med grapefruit export to remain around 300.000 T

Challenging market & declining consumptionStocks from SH , Mexico ,....

GRAPEFUITS 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012SPAIN 37.164 43.770 46.500

CYPRUS 9.497 12.500 11.000

ITALY 5.540 7.400 6.000

GREECE 1.224 0 0

EU MED 53.424 63.670 63.500

MOROCCO 0 0 0

TURKEY 152.442 152.871 160.515EGYPT 12.600 0 0

ISRAEL 90.000 85.000 85.000

NON EU MED 255.042 237.871 245.515

TOTAL MED BASIN 308.466 301.541 309.015


20/24

Med Total Citrus production Med citrus production to be overall stable to last year at

18.476.875 T but :

EU production :5% ( 54.2% of Med production ) at 10 Mln T

=> lowest of the last 5 years

Non EU production + 6% at 8.4 Mln T => highest from the last5 years

TOTAL CITRUS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 Variation

SPAIN 5.343.386 6.688.573 5.502.140 6.177.582 5.525.000 -11%

CYPRUS 136.600 109.200 112.000 118.500 113.500 -4%

ITALY 3.542.800 2.682.920 3.652.120 3.450.000 3.720.000 8%

GREECE 1.049.210 897.500 969.000 811.000 656.000 -19%

10.071.996 10.378.193 10.235.260 10.557.082 10.014.500 -5%

MOROCCO 1.239.000 1.360.000 1.320.000 1.736.000 1.819.000 5%

TURKEY 2.413.000 2.600.000 2.780.000 3.077.500 3.423.375 11%

EGYPT 2.795.000 2.515.500 2.645.000 2.645.000 2.645.000 0%

ISRAEL 547.000 568.000 580.000 520.000 575.000 11%

6.994.000 7.043.500 7.325.000 7.978.500 8.462.375 6%

17.065.996 17.421.693 17.560.260 18.535.582 18.476.875 0%



TOTAL MED BASIN


21/24

Export Citrus Med citrus export to be slighty lower by 100.000 T than last year

at 7.2 Mln T but

EU supply to be similar to 2009/2010 at 4 Mln TNon EU supply to be 200.000 T highrt at 3.2 Mln T

TOTAL CITRUS 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

SPAIN 3.138.328 3.574.678 3.300.500CYPRUS 58.645 52.600 49.500

ITALY 270.589 271.900 276.000

GREECE 538.998 415.500 390.000

EU MED 4.006.559 4.314.678 4.016.000

MOROCCO 532.000 524.000 579.000

TURKEY 1.098.884 1.398.781 1.507.907

EGYPT 900.600 930.000 930.000

ISRAEL 188.000 154.000 182.000

NON EU MED 2.719.484 3.006.781 3.198.907

TOTAL MED BASIN 6.726.042 7 .321.459 7.214.907


22/24

Conclusions Outlook in time of crisis :

Price return down in the chain Increasing cost ( energy, intrants, labor )

Economic and financial crisis : market uncertainties Exchange rate fluctuations Impact of crisis on consumption ( citrus and other product, available

income, frequency of purchase, pack type,)

Changing lifestyle Competition among product categories and with other food and non

food product

Competitiveness for EU producers with growing players ( TK, EG) Plant health threat : citrus greening

Consequences of EHEC on the sector on consumer confidence


23/24

Conclusions Remedy :

Communication : fresh produce are cheap compared toother agrifood product

Health benefit of fresh produce

Claims and image protection

Communication other positive assets ( www.enjoyfresh.eu )

Changing CAP ( fruit school scheme, promotion ,..)

Balancing markets to avoid overlap => market transparency

Status of consumption Innovation


24/24

Thank you!

www.freshfel.org

www.enjoyfresh.org

www.freshquality.org

european summit 2011 - agrumi - philippe binard freshfel download

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