European Neighbourhood Policy European Neighbourhood Policy and the Conflict in Transnistriaand the Conflict in Transnistria

By Professor Adrian Pop, Ph.D.By Professor Adrian Pop, Ph.D.Faculty of Political SciencesFaculty of Political Sciences

““Dimitrie Cantemir” UniversityDimitrie Cantemir” UniversityBucharest, RomaniaBucharest, Romania

THE TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICTTHE TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICT

Ethno political conflict with a strong ideological Ethno political conflict with a strong ideological component component => armed conflict (1991-1992) => => armed conflict (1991-1992) => geopolitical frozen conflict (1992-2006)geopolitical frozen conflict (1992-2006)

Its beginning coincided with the beginning of Its beginning coincided with the beginning of Moldovan statehoodMoldovan statehood

Has got the West’s attention only from 2003 on, Has got the West’s attention only from 2003 on, against the background of NATO and EU against the background of NATO and EU enlargement to the Eastenlargement to the East

From a post-Soviet conflict to a European oneFrom a post-Soviet conflict to a European one

GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC

ASPECTSASPECTS:: RUSSIARUSSIA

Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabach, South Ossetia, Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabach, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and AdjariaAbkhazia and Adjaria frozen conflicts m frozen conflicts materialize aterialize Russia’s near abroad concept Russia’s near abroad concept

Transnistria – Russia’s most advanced stronghold Transnistria – Russia’s most advanced stronghold to the West, near the common NATO-EU eastern to the West, near the common NATO-EU eastern border of Romaniaborder of Romania

Russia’s involvement in the conflictRussia’s involvement in the conflict The 14The 14thth Army support in the armed conflict Army support in the armed conflict The signing of the ceasefire agreement (1992)The signing of the ceasefire agreement (1992) Peacekeeping rolePeacekeeping role Mediator roleMediator role

GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC GEOPOLITICAL AND GEO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS:ASPECTS:

DNESTR MOLDOVAN REPUBLIC (DMR)DNESTR MOLDOVAN REPUBLIC (DMR) Mafia-type illicit activities;Mafia-type illicit activities; a generator and a generator and

facilitator of asymmetrical risks and threats facilitator of asymmetrical risks and threats Part of a criminal network within CIS; the alliance Part of a criminal network within CIS; the alliance

between DMR, Abkhazia and South Ossetia between DMR, Abkhazia and South Ossetia (2004)(2004)

Catalyst for secessionist movements; arms Catalyst for secessionist movements; arms producer for conflict areasproducer for conflict areas

Important electric energy producer and transfer Important electric energy producer and transfer node; RM’s energy dependence on DMR’s node; RM’s energy dependence on DMR’s Cuciurgani electric plant (now in Russian hands)Cuciurgani electric plant (now in Russian hands)

THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THE CONFLICTTHE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF THE CONFLICT

Hits RM economy by re-export activities, Hits RM economy by re-export activities, depriving RM of taxes and hampering depriving RM of taxes and hampering investments investments

Magnifies the economic dependence of RMMagnifies the economic dependence of RM Prevents control over the whole RM territory and Prevents control over the whole RM territory and

RM bordersRM borders Prevents RM government to guarantee social Prevents RM government to guarantee social

securitysecurity Blocks Blocks RM government’sRM government’s decisions decisions Hampers security sector reform in RMHampers security sector reform in RM Prevents RM to define its own identityPrevents RM to define its own identity Bars the European road of RMBars the European road of RM

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSCONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSOSCE OSCE

Initial mandate:Initial mandate: securing the t securing the territorial integrity of the stateerritorial integrity of the state along with a special status for along with a special status for TransnistriaTransnistria

Reduction of Russian armaments and the 14th ArmyReduction of Russian armaments and the 14th Army troops troops but not their full withdrawal, despite commitments taken at but not their full withdrawal, despite commitments taken at the OSCE Summits in Istanbul (1999) and Porto (2002)the OSCE Summits in Istanbul (1999) and Porto (2002)

The OSCE Plan (2002): a federation of “state entities” - The OSCE Plan (2002): a federation of “state entities” - Transnistria and Gagauz-YeriTransnistria and Gagauz-Yeri - - with their own constitutions with their own constitutions and lawsand laws and a and a federal parliament with two chambers; it federal parliament with two chambers; it meant the breaching of the Moldovan Constitution, of the meant the breaching of the Moldovan Constitution, of the OSCE mandate and of the ruling party’s programme OSCE mandate and of the ruling party’s programme

The OSCE Washington summit resolution (2005): it was The OSCE Washington summit resolution (2005): it was agreed upon to combine the Russian and Ukrainian plans agreed upon to combine the Russian and Ukrainian plans into a single framework documentinto a single framework document

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSCONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANS RUSSIA RUSSIA

Kozak Memorandum (2003): recipe for the Kozak Memorandum (2003): recipe for the “transnistrianization” of RM“transnistrianization” of RM- a - a federal state with 2 entities, DMR and the Gagauz-Yerifederal state with 2 entities, DMR and the Gagauz-Yeri- a bicameral Parliament, the federal entities having an - a bicameral Parliament, the federal entities having an a a priori priori 50 per cent of votes50 per cent of votes and and the Senate having the right to the Senate having the right to veto any piece of legislation regarding the federationveto any piece of legislation regarding the federation- official languages: Moldovan and Russian - official languages: Moldovan and Russian - the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping troops: sometime - the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping troops: sometime around the year 2030around the year 2030 - rejected by President Voronin and the - rejected by President Voronin and the Maastricht OSCE Maastricht OSCE Summit (2003) Summit (2003)

Belkovski Plan (2004 & 2006): Bessarabia vs. TransnistriaBelkovski Plan (2004 & 2006): Bessarabia vs. Transnistria- DMR’s - DMR’s de jurede jure independence and future unification with independence and future unification with Russia in exchange for Bessarabia’s reunification with Russia in exchange for Bessarabia’s reunification with RomaniaRomania- partly “legitimized” by the recent Transnistrian referendum - partly “legitimized” by the recent Transnistrian referendum (2006)(2006)

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSCONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSUKRAINEUKRAINE

Yuschenko PlanYuschenko Plan (2005)(2005) - DMR authorities would have got an implicit recognition as - DMR authorities would have got an implicit recognition as “part of the negotiation process”“part of the negotiation process”- the Supreme Soviet, would have got its legitimacy, as - the Supreme Soviet, would have got its legitimacy, as mandatory and urgent elections for it were called upon, mandatory and urgent elections for it were called upon, supervised by OSCEsupervised by OSCE

-- DMR: “DMR: “a republic within the Republic of Moldova” with its a republic within the Republic of Moldova” with its own constitution, symbols and official languages (Moldovan, own constitution, symbols and official languages (Moldovan, Russian and Ukrainian)Russian and Ukrainian)- the representation in the Conciliation Committee would - the representation in the Conciliation Committee would have favoured the blocking of OSCE decisionshave favoured the blocking of OSCE decisions- rejected by Russia but - rejected by Russia but positively received in the West positively received in the West

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSCONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSREPUBLIC OF MOLDOVAREPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

Civil society’sCivil society’s 3-D Strategy (2003) 3-D Strategy (2003)- - demilitarizationdemilitarization - - decriminalizationdecriminalization - - democratizationdemocratization

The Status Law (2005)The Status Law (2005)- Transnistria got a special juridical status as a - Transnistria got a special juridical status as a “territorial administrative unit in form of a “territorial administrative unit in form of a republic”republic”

- well received by OSCE, rejected by Russia, - well received by OSCE, rejected by Russia, Ukraine and DMR Ukraine and DMR

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSCONFLICT RESOLUTION PLANSROMANIAROMANIA

Initially a part of the mediation process, soon after excluded Initially a part of the mediation process, soon after excluded from itfrom it

Throughout the acting Romanian presidency of OSCEThroughout the acting Romanian presidency of OSCE (2001) it decided (2001) it decided to transfer the Transnistrian issue on the to transfer the Transnistrian issue on the agenda of the incoming Portuguese presidencyagenda of the incoming Portuguese presidency

Civil society’s recommendations (2005) for a Cyprus Civil society’s recommendations (2005) for a Cyprus scenario for RM: letting out Transnistria and focus on EU scenario for RM: letting out Transnistria and focus on EU accessionaccession

President Traian Basescu (2006): “Romanian-Moldovan President Traian Basescu (2006): “Romanian-Moldovan reunification will be made within EU”reunification will be made within EU”

CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEW OPPORTUNITIESNEW OPPORTUNITIES

ENPENP ENP’s primary goal: to create a ring of friendly states at the ENP’s primary goal: to create a ring of friendly states at the

EU periphery EU periphery The incorporation into the ENP of a soft conditionality principleThe incorporation into the ENP of a soft conditionality principle ENP’s focus on forging a common market: not only economic, but also ENP’s focus on forging a common market: not only economic, but also

security benefits security benefits ENP’s emphasis on transborder cooperation: forging the interaction ENP’s emphasis on transborder cooperation: forging the interaction

with neighbourswith neighbours The role or regional cooperation: getting closer to the EU; RM’s The role or regional cooperation: getting closer to the EU; RM’s

accession to the SEECPaccession to the SEECP Romania as RM’s natural partner on its road to the EURomania as RM’s natural partner on its road to the EU

The EU-Moldova Action PlanThe EU-Moldova Action Plan (till (till 2008)2008) Priorities set forth in the Action Plans: transport, energy, justice and Priorities set forth in the Action Plans: transport, energy, justice and

home affairshome affairs The Transnistrian conflict gets a special attentionThe Transnistrian conflict gets a special attention

The EU monitoring mission at the Moldovan-Ukrainian The EU monitoring mission at the Moldovan-Ukrainian border, border, (2005-2007): the (2005-2007): the first display of the ENP security first display of the ENP security dimension in the Black Sea regiondimension in the Black Sea region

CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEW OPPORTUNITIESNEW OPPORTUNITIES

ESDPESDP A possible future civilian EU-led police monitoring A possible future civilian EU-led police monitoring

mission which would have Transnistria as its first mission which would have Transnistria as its first implementation ground in the former Soviet areaimplementation ground in the former Soviet area

Following the Bosnian model, the cooperation of Following the Bosnian model, the cooperation of non-EU states, including Russia and Ukraine, is non-EU states, including Russia and Ukraine, is desirable and feasibledesirable and feasible

CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEW OPPORTUNITIESNEW OPPORTUNITIES

ROMANIA’S ROLEROMANIA’S ROLE Optimizing Optimizing the management of the future EU eastern borderthe management of the future EU eastern border

Producing a multidimensional strategy on Romania’s relations Producing a multidimensional strategy on Romania’s relations with RM and Ukraine with RM and Ukraine

A possible 2+2 format of know how transfer from Romania and A possible 2+2 format of know how transfer from Romania and Poland to RM and Ukraine in the areas of democratization and Poland to RM and Ukraine in the areas of democratization and security sector reformsecurity sector reform

Supporting diplomatically the goal of upgrading the status of Supporting diplomatically the goal of upgrading the status of the EU and US (currently observers) in the current pentagonal the EU and US (currently observers) in the current pentagonal framework of negotiations on Transnistriaframework of negotiations on Transnistria

CONFLICT RESOLUTION CONFLICT RESOLUTION NEW OPPORTUNITIESNEW OPPORTUNITIES

ROMANIA’S ROLEROMANIA’S ROLE Participating, after EU accession, to the EU monitoring Participating, after EU accession, to the EU monitoring

mission of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border and also to a mission of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border and also to a possible future EU Petersberg mission in Transnistriapossible future EU Petersberg mission in Transnistria

Making good use of Romania’s triple status as NATO Making good use of Romania’s triple status as NATO member, future EU member, and future US military bases member, future EU member, and future US military bases host, to facilitate the forging of a consensus on the host, to facilitate the forging of a consensus on the international communityinternational community’s ’s strategy for the Black Sea strategy for the Black Sea regionregion

Securing a follow-up for the Black Sea ForumSecuring a follow-up for the Black Sea Forum

Launching, after the EU accession, an EU Black Sea Launching, after the EU accession, an EU Black Sea Dimension following the model instituted by Finland with Dimension following the model instituted by Finland with its Northern Dimension. its Northern Dimension.

ConclusionsConclusions

The need to avoid transforming Transnistria into a The need to avoid transforming Transnistria into a Black Sea KaliningradBlack Sea Kaliningrad

Political will for a decisive action is crucialPolitical will for a decisive action is crucial The opportunities presented by ENP and ESDP The opportunities presented by ENP and ESDP

should be used at their full potentialshould be used at their full potential A sustainable solution for Transnistria is a A sustainable solution for Transnistria is a

precondition for RM’s becoming a democratic and precondition for RM’s becoming a democratic and prosperous EU neigbouring countryprosperous EU neigbouring country