european listed real estate monthly review february 2020 ... · befimmo +2% +12% +17% 1,565 66% 1.5...

CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING

European Listed Real Estate

Monthly Review – February 2020

C2 - Internal Natixis

Investment in Standard Commercial Real Estate (€bn)

Comparative Change in Rates

Evolution of Indexation rates

Prime Yields as of September 2019

French Real Estate Trends

Market Conditions (1/3)

The expected total

investment in 2019 has

reached over €35bn, an

increase of 16%

compared to 2018.

Despite a slow start of the

year, the trend that began

in H1 continued over the

Summer with several

major deals (40% superior

to €200m).

The real estate premium

is increasing on the back

of a OAT 10Y rate ever so

low, while prime offices

yields are steady

Sources: CBRE, Immostat, Banque de France, INSEE

-100 bps

-50 bps

0 bps

50 bps

100 bps

150 bps

200 bps

250 bps

300 bps

350 bps

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Real Estate premium Prime offices Paris OAT 10Y Euribor 3M

Assets Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Trend

Paris CBD 3.05% 3.05% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

La Défense 4.25% 4.10% 3.90% 4.10% 4.10% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%

Inner Rim 4.05% 4.05% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80% 3.80%

Aix/Marseille 5.75% 5.20% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70% 4.70%

Lyon 3.95% 3.90% 3.90% 3.90% 3.90% 3.85% 3.85% 3.85% 3.70%

Grade A Warehouses

- Greater Paris5.25% 4.90% 4.90% 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% 4.50% 4.50% 4.20%

Industrial premises

- Greater Paris5.90% 5.90% 5.90% 5.60% 5.60% 5.40% 5.60% 5.60% 5.60%

Street-level shops - Paris 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

Shopping centers - France 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.20% 4.50% 4.75% 4.75%

2 FEBRUARY 2020 | CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

+1.0%

+3.0%

+5.0%

Q4 0

9

Q3 1

0

Q2 1

1

Q1 1

2

Q4 1

2

Q3 1

3

Q2 1

4

Q1 1

5

Q4 1

5

Q3 1

6

Q2 1

7

Q1 1

8

Q4 1

8

Q3 1

9

ICC ILC ILAT

Expected > €35bn


3

€291m Volumes in the Real Estate Sector in January


4 ABBs representing

€291m ECM volumes in

the European Real Estate

sector last month

It represents a significant

30% decrease compared

to December, attributable

to the end of the year

traditional slowdown

Intu Properties could seek

to raise $£1bn to shore up

its finances

MAIN DEALS OF THE MONTH

PERFORMANCE OF MAIN IPOS PRICED SINCE 2015

ABB

Issuer Country Date Type Amount (€ m) % of capital # of trading days Discount

K2A Knaust & Andesson Fastigheter AB 14-Jan-20 Capital Increase 17 8.3% 89 1.3%

S Immo AG 15-Jan-20 Capital Increase 149 10.0% 87 0.0%

Deutsche Konsum REIT-AG 20-Jan-20 Capital Increase 16 3.1% 83 -4.3%

DIC Asset 21-Jan-20 Capital Increase 110 9.5% 22 -3.0%

Company Country Date Amount (€m) Perf

Pandox 18-Jun-15 593 +100.9 %

Schroder 11-Dec-15 145 +12.5 %

Coima 13-May-16 215 -10.4 %

Civitas Social Housing 21-Nov-16 408 -2.7 %

Varia US Properties 8-Dec-16 100 +23.7 %

Carmila 6-Jul-17 629 -24.9 %

Aedas Homes 18-Oct-17 667 -33.3 %

VGP 25-Oct-17 253 +58.9 %

Company Country Date Amount (€m) Perf

Aberdeen Standard 20-Nov-17 214 -8.2 %

Metrovacesa 2-Feb-18 646 -44.1 %

Instone Real Estate 13-Feb-18 390 +11.6 %

Godewind Immobilien 9-Mar-18 375 +31.8 %

Kojamo 14-Jun-18 483 +96.0 %

Arima 18-Oct-18 100 +17.0 %

Gateway Real Estate 9-Apr-19 172 +7.5 %

John Mattson 22-May-19 121 +52.7 %

FEBRUARY 2020 | CORPORATE & INVESTMENT BANKING


Blue Chips Indices Performance

DJ Stoxx Indices Performance

Real Estate vs. Blue Chips Indices and Sectors


Strong set of positive

performance among the

Blue Chips Indices,

especially with EPRA

France which has

outperformed the sector

with a +31% increase over

the past year

Regarding sector indices,

the performance is

generally positive with a

few setbacks for the Oil &

Gas and Telecom sectors.

The largest performance

has been recorded in the

financial, Real Estate and

Utilities sectors over the

past twelve months.

Source: Bloomberg

4

1 M 6 M 12 M

EPRA France +1% +17% +31%

EPRA Europe +1% +16% +17%

CAC 40 -1% +6% +20%

DAX +1% +7% +18%

FTSE 100 -1% -1% +10%

Euro Stoxx 50 -1% +6% +18%

S&P 500 +2% +8% +23%

Stock performance

1 M 6 M 12 M

EPRA France +1% +17% +31%

EPRA Europe +1% +16% +17%

Consumer +1% +2% +21%

Utilities +8% +19% +28%

Financial +2% +16% +30%

Industrials +1% +10% +23%

Oil & Gas -3% -5% -3%

Telecom +2% +4% +4%

Stock performance

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

EPRA France EPRA Europe CAC 40 DAX

FTSE 100 Euro Stoxx 50 S&P 500

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

EPRA Europe EPRA France Consumer Utili ties Financial

Industr ials Oil & Gas Telecom Real Estate



Capi. Float Vol.* Float rotation

1 M 6 M 12 M (€ m) (%) (€ m) (trading days)

Cegereal -0% +10% +27% 684 2% 0.0 1,033

Frey +5% +10% +37% 845 8% 0.0 4,103

Immo. Dassault +15% +23% +44% 525 14% 0.0 2,339

Inéa +2% -0% +16% 348 16% 0.1 786

Patr. & Comm. +13% +22% +42% 296 24% 0.1 713

Selectirente +0% +10% +7% 380 16% 0.0 2,936

Tour Eiffel +1% +7% +10% 650 7% 0.1 536

Stock performance



Altarea +3% +14% +25% 3,482 18% 0.5 1,327

Argan +2% +25% +62% 1,764 41% 0.3 2,471

Carmila -7% +16% +16% 2,450 23% 2.2 676

Covivio Hotels +2% +13% +21% 3,571 6% 0.1 2,710

Covivio +5% +14% +28% 9,350 44% 10.9 377

Gecina +5% +22% +44% 13,036 54% 16.9 413

Icade +2% +26% +45% 7,454 42% 7.0 448

Klépierre -7% +10% +17% 9,591 60% 23.4 247

Mercialys -5% +14% -2% 1,065 50% 2.3 234

SFL +6% +14% +28% 3,657 6% 0.1 3,050

Unibail Rodamco -10% +2% -10% 17,450 100% 61.4 283

Stock performance

30

80

130

180

230

280

330

380

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

EPRA France Altarea Argan Carmila

Covivio Hotels Covivio Gecina Icade

IPO

Large Caps – Stock Performance since January 2017

Mid Caps – Stock Performance since January 2017

French Large & Mid Cap

Performance of Real Estate Stocks (1/4)

Source: Bloomberg * 3-month average daily volumes

5

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

EPRA France Cegereal Frey Immo. Dassault

Inéa Patr. & Comm. Selectirente Tour Eiffel





Altarea +3% +14% +25% 3,482 18% 0.5 1,327

Carmila -7% +16% +16% 2,450 61% 2.2 676

Citycon +4% +9% +17% 1,716 76% 0.9 1,454

Deutsche Euro -6% -0% -0% 1,533 75% 3.6 319

Eurocommercial -9% +6% -12% 1,136 87% 2.5 400

Hammerson -18% -0% -21% 2,294 68% 9.1 171

Intu -44% -75% -83% 298 58% 1.7 103

Klépierre -7% +10% +17% 9,591 60% 23.4 247

Mercialys -5% +14% -2% 1,065 50% 2.3 234

Retail Estates +0% +3% +17% 1,043 78% 0.8 1,048

Shaftesbury -0% +14% +11% 3,280 45% 3.9 377

Unibail Rodamco -10% +2% -10% 17,450 100% 61.4 283

Wereldhave -14% -10% -33% 697 100% 3.8 183

Stock performance



Alstria +4% +20% +40% 3,131 95% 7.3 408

Befimmo +2% +12% +17% 1,565 66% 1.5 674

Colonial +6% +18% +38% 6,138 33% 6.7 306

Derwent London +2% +35% +35% 5,426 80% 11.8 368

Fabege +4% +9% +26% 5,174 55% 10.3 277

Gecina +5% +22% +44% 13,036 54% 16.9 413

Great Portland Estates +8% +36% +30% 2,778 90% 10.0 249

PSP +7% +20% +47% 6,089 73% 15.8 280

SFL +6% +14% +28% 3,657 6% 0.1 3,050

Stock performance

0

50

100

150

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19Altarea Carmila Citycon Deutsche EuroEurocommercial Hammerson Intu KlépierreMercialys Retail Estates Shaftesbury Unibail Rodamco

− Retail – Stock Performance since January 2017

European Retail & Offices players



6

− Offices – Stock Performance since January 2017

IPO

30

80

130

180

230

280

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19Alstria Befimmo Colonia lDerwent London Fabege Gecina





Aroundtown +3% +14% +13% 10,205 35% 23.6 150

British Land -8% +11% +7% 6,304 84% 22.9 232

Castellum +6% +23% +46% 6,182 65% 11.0 367

Cofinimmo +7% +17% +28% 3,789 95% 4.6 778

Covivio +5% +14% +28% 9,350 44% 10.9 377

Hufvudstaden +1% +11% +30% 7,247 29% 4.7 439

Icade +2% +26% +45% 7,454 42% 7.0 448

Land Sec. -3% +17% +19% 8,423 82% 23.2 298

Merlin +1% +5% +15% 6,121 62% 12.3 309

Swiss Prime +4% +32% +46% 8,241 88% 21.6 336

TLG +4% +10% +16% 3,368 60% 8.4 241

Stock performance



ADO -11% -26% -43% 1,268 63% 4.0 201

Adler -9% -0% -11% 884 61% 2.4 229

Deutsche Wohnen +4% +15% -10% 13,842 70% 29.3 332

Grand City +7% +11% +14% 3,885 55% 4.1 527

LEG +5% +5% +14% 7,698 70% 16.6 323

TAG +6% +11% +12% 3,466 97% 7.8 429

Vonovia +6% +15% +21% 27,960 73% 57.8 351

Stock performance

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19Aroundtown British Land Castellum CofinimmoCovivio Hufvudstaden Icade Land Sec.Merlin Swiss Prime TLG

− Residential – Stock Performance since January 2017



7

− Diversified – Stock Performance since January 2017

European Residential & Diversified

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

ADO Adler Deutsche Wohnen Grand City LEG TAG Vonovia





Aedifica +7% +26% +67% 2,992 100% 4.2 709

Assura +0% +20% +43% 2,223 44% 3.5 281

Care Property +5% +22% +57% 656 100% 1.0 668

PHP +1% +20% +47% 2,273 72% 4.2 390

Stock performance



Empiric Student +3% +13% +14% 713 56% 1.1 372

Xior +2% +18% +41% 1,014 86% 1.1 823

Stock performance



Covivio Hotels +2% +13% +21% 3,571 6% 0.1 2,710

Pandox +1% +20% +41% 3,789 13% 3.9 122

Stock performance

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

WDP Argan Segro



WDP +7% +9% +42% 4,347 76% 6.7 498

Argan +2% +25% +62% 1,764 41% 0.3 2,471

Segro +0% +18% +44% 11,709 75% 23.9 367

Stock performance

8

a

a

a

− Logistics – Stock Performance since January 2017

− Healthcare – Stock Performance since January 2017

− Hotels – Stock Performance since January 2017

− Student Housing – Stock Performance since January 2017


Alternative Assets


60

110

160

210

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

Empiric Student Xior

80

100

120

140

160

180

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19

Covivio Hotels Pandox

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

06/01/17 06/08/17 06/03/18 06/10/18 06/05/19 06/12/19Aedifica Assura Care Property PHP



Consensus on main European Players

Consensus on main French Players

Analysts’ Consensus (1/6)

Source: Bloomberg

9

69% 62% 58%40% 37% 36%

24% 32% 29% 24% 21% 17%

27% 33%31%

27% 32%41%

43%42% 41%

43% 47%67%

4% 5% 12%

33% 32%23%

33% 26% 29% 33% 32%17%

Vonovia LEG

Immobilien

AG

Deutsche

Wohnen

Covivio Land

Sec.

Unibail -

Rodamco-

Westfield

Hammerson Klépierre Icade Hammer. British

Land

Swiss

Prime

Site

Buy Hold Sell Upside potential

26 21

+4.9%+4.5%

# brokers

6

-9.1%

19

-0.4%+5.8%

21

-10.0%

1719

-2.4%

21

+5.8%

22

+19.2%

19

-1.3%

15

-7.4%

26

+2.1%


67%

44% 40% 36% 35% 32% 29% 25%

33%

22% 27% 41% 47%42% 41%

38%75%

33% 33%23% 18%

26% 29% 38%25%

Altarea Mercialys Covivio Unibail -Rodamco-

Westfield

Gecina Klépierre Icade Carmila SFL

Buy Hold Sell # brokers Upside potential

3 9 15

-3.4%-3.9% -7.4%

19

-2.4%

22

+19.2%

17

-10.0% -5.0%

817

-8.8% -12.2%

4


Last Changes in Brokers’ Recommendations / Target Prices for Selected European Players


Source: Bloomberg

10

Date Company Broker Reco. Target Price Date Company Broker Reco. Target Price

9-Jan ADO Barclays underweight € 26.0 23-Jan British Land AlphaValue reduce GBp 543.0

14-Jan Aedifica Degroof Petercam add € 126.0 13-Jan Carmila Oddo BHF neutral € 20.0

14-Jan Aedifica Kempen & Co buy € 125.0 17-Jan Castellum Goldman Sachs sell SEK 158.0

21-Jan Aedifica Oddo BHF neutral new € 116.0 new 24-Jan Castellum Kempen & Co neutral SEK 225.0

13-Jan Alstria Kempen & Co buy € 18.3 27-Jan Castellum Kepler Cheuvreux buy SEK 260.0

16-Jan Astria JP Morgan overweight € 19.5 29-Jan Castellum JP Morgan overweight SEK 250.0

17-Jan Astria Goldman Sachs neutral € 17.1 16-Jan Citycon JP Morgan neutral € 9.6

13-Jan Aroundtown HSBC buy € 11.0 17-Jan Citycon Goldman Sachs sell € 6.3

16-Jan Assura JP Morgan overweight GBp 81.0 14-Jan Cofinimmo Kepler Cheuvreux buy new € 143.0 new

14-Jan British Land Kempen & Co neutral GBp 610.0 14-Jan Cofinimmo Kempen & Co buy new € 143.0 new

15-Jan British Land Jefferies underperform GBp 450.0 21-Jan Cofinimmo Oddo BHF buy new € 139.0 new

16-Jan British Land JP Morgan neutral GBp 630.0 13-Jan Covivio Oddo BHF buy € 110.0

17-Jan British Land Goldman Sachs buy GBp 661.0 14-Jan Covivio Kempen & Co sell € 93.0





Source: Bloomberg

11


16-Jan Covivio JP Morgan neutral € 110.0 23-Jan Deutsche Wohnen AlphaValue buy € 45.5

17-Jan Covivio Goldman Sachs buy € 120.3 14-Jan Eurocomm. Kempen & Co sell new € 22.0 new

20-Jan Covivio Morgan Stanley overweight € 106.0 17-Jan Eurocomm. Goldman Sachs sell € 21.4

23-Jan Covivio AlphaValue reduce € 94.4 14-Jan Fabege Kempen & Co buy SEK 180.0

14-Jan Derwent London Kempen & Co neutral GBp 4200.0 17-Jan Fabege Goldman Sachs sell SEK 122.1

15-Jan Derwent London Jefferies underperform GBp 3000.0 23-Jan Fabege Kepler Cheuvreux buy SEK 175.0

16-Jan Derwent London JP Morgan underweight GBp 3720.0 14-Jan Gecina Kempen & Co buy € 175.0

17-Jan Derwent London Goldman Sachs neutral GBp 4277.0 new 15-Jan Gecina Jefferies hold € 155.0

14-Jan Deutsche Euro. Kempen & Co sell new € 23.0 16-Jan Gecina AlphaValue reduce € 159.0

16-Jan Deutsche Euro. JP Morgan neutral € 25.8 16-Jan Gecina JP Morgan overweight € 173.0

14-Jan Deutsche Wohnen Kempen & Co buy € 41.0 17-Jan Gecina Goldman Sachs neutral € 161.5

17-Jan Deutsche Wohnen Goldman Sachs neutral € 36.8 new 9-Jan Grand City Property Barclays equalweight new € 22.7 new

21-Jan Deutsche Wohnen RBC Capital Markets outperform new € 43.0 14-Jan Grand City Property Kempen & Co sell new € 19.0 new





Source: Bloomberg

12


16-Jan Grand City Property JP Morgan overweight € 24.5 20-Jan Icade Morgan Stanley equalweight € 93.0

14-Jan Great Port. Kempen & Co buy GBp 945.0 21-Jan Icade Oddo BHF buy € 108.0

15-Jan Great Port. Jefferies underperform GBp 700.0 30-Jan Icade AlphaValue reduce € 93.5

16-Jan Great Port. JP Morgan neutral GBp 880.0 14-Jan Inmobilaria Colonial Kempen & Co buy new € 13.0 new

17-Jan Great Port. Goldman Sachs neutral GBp 846.0 16-Jan Inmobilaria Colonial JP Morgan overweight € 12.3

14-Jan Hammerson Kempen & Co neutral GBp 270.0 17-Jan Inmobilaria Colonial Goldman Sachs buy € 12.7

16-Jan Hammerson JP Morgan neutral GBp 300.0 20-Jan Inmobilaria Colonial Morgan Stanley overweight € 13.0

17-Jan Hammerson Goldman Sachs buy GBp 316.0 23-Jan Inmobilaria Colonial AlphaValue reduce € 11.2

30-Jan Hammerson AlphaValue reduce GBp 252.0 15-Jan Intu Prop. Jefferies underperform GBp 20.0

14-Jan Hufvudstaden Kempen & Co neutral new SEK 200.0 new 17-Jan Intu Prop. Goldman Sachs sell GBp 22.0

23-Jan Hufvudstaden Kepler Cheuvreux buy SEK 210.0 28-Jan Intu Prop. Stifel sell GBp 15.0

16-Jan Icade JP Morgan neutral € 100.0 30-Jan Intu Prop. AlphaValue sell GBp 9.9

17-Jan Icade Goldman Sachs sell € 87.9 30-Jan Intu Prop. JP Morgan underweight GBp 25.0





Source: Bloomberg

13


15-Jan Klépierre Jefferies hold € 29.0 30-Jan Mercialys AlphaValue add € 12.9

16-Jan Klépierre JP Morgan neutral € 36.0 16-Jan Merlin Properties JP Morgan overweight € 14.5

17-Jan Klépierre Goldman Sachs neutral € 32.2 17-Jan Merlin Properties Goldman Sachs sell € 11.4

30-Jan Klépierre AlphaValue sell € 25.9 23-Jan Pandox Kepler Cheuvreux buy SEK 240.0

14-Jan Land Sec. Kempen & Co buy GBp 1060.0 15-Jan PHP Jefferies hold GBp 155.0

15-Jan Land Sec. Jefferies underperform GBp 800.0 14-Jan PSP Kempen & Co neutral CHF 136.0

17-Jan Land Sec. Goldman Sachs buy GBp 1080.0 16-Jan PSP JP Morgan underweight CHF 130.0

30-Jan Land Sec. AlphaValue reduce GBp 868.0 22-Jan PSP MainFirst Bank buy new CHF 155.0 new

3-Jan LEG Immobilien Commerzbank buy € 122.0 14-Jan Segro Kempen & Co buy GBp 960.0

9-Jan LEG Immobilien Barclays underweight new € 100.0 new 15-Jan Segro Jefferies hold GBp 900.0

14-Jan LEG Immobilien Kempen & Co neutral new € 115.0 new 16-Jan Segro JP Morgan neutral GBp 855.0

16-Jan LEG Immobilien JP Morgan overweight € 120.0 17-Jan Segro Goldman Sachs neutral GBp 954.0

14-Jan Mercialys Kempen & Co sell new € 10.5 new 30-Jan Segro AlphaValue sell GBp 617.0





Source: Bloomberg

14


14-Jan Shaftesbury Kempen & Co sell GBp 850.0 21-Jan Vonovia RBC Capital Markets sector perform new € 52.0 new

15-Jan Shaftesbury Jefferies underperform GBp 790.0 30-Jan Vonovia AlphaValue add € 54.5

17-Jan Shaftesbury Goldman Sachs sell GBp 789.0 14-Jan WDP Kempen & Co buy € 25.5

14-Jan Swiss Prime Site Kempen & Co sell CHF 108.0 27-Jan WDP ABN Amro Bank sell € 19.0

22-Jan Swiss Prime Site MainFirst Bank hold new CHF 113.0 new 14-Jan Wereldhave Kempen & Co sell new € 17.0 new

14-Jan TAG Immobilien Kempen & Co neutral new € 23.0 new 17-Jan Wereldhave Goldman Sachs sell € 17.1

14-Jan Unibail Kempen & Co sell new € 122.0 new 29-Jan Wereldhave AlphaValue add € 18.8

16-Jan Unibail JP Morgan neutral € 145.0 14-Jan Xior Kempen & Co neutral € 54.0

17-Jan Unibail Goldman Sachs neutral € 140.0

30-Jan Unibail AlphaValue buy € 181.0

14-Jan Vonovia Kempen & Co neutral € 52.0

17-Jan Vonovia Goldman Sachs buy € 62.1

20-Jan Vonovia JP Morgan overweight € 56.0



Market cap. LTV (%) P / NNNAV P / NAV EV / EBITDA P / CF Dividend Yield

Company Activity (€m) lr (2) lr (3) 2019E 2020E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2019E 2020E 2021E

Large Cap

Altarea Retail 3,354 34% 30% 36% 32% 20.3x 19.2x 17.7x 11.9x 11.4x 11.6x 6.2% 6.4% 6.6%Argan Industrials 1,310 56% n.m. n.m. n.m. 23.4x 16.2x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 1.9% 2.2% 2.3%Carmila Retail 2,474 39% (29%) (33%) (33%) 17.1x 16.2x 15.4x 11.2x 11.0x 10.6x 8.3% 8.4% 8.6%Covivio Hotels Hotels / div. 3,546 39% 14% n.m. n.m. 23.6x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 5.3% n.m. n.m.Covivio Diversified 9,393 41% 19% 8% 5% 39.3x 38.4x 36.9x 20.3x 19.9x 18.8x 4.4% 4.6% 4.8%Gecina Offices 12,537 37% 3% (1%) (4%) 37.2x 36.7x 35.9x 29.1x 28.2x 27.3x 3.3% 3.3% 3.4%Icade Diversified 7,387 41% 12% 6% 4% 24.2x 23.5x 21.8x 20.1x 19.3x 17.6x 4.8% 5.0% 5.2%Klepierre Retail 9,213 37% (16%) (20%) (16%) 19.0x 18.9x 18.7x 11.4x 11.1x 10.7x 7.0% 7.3% 7.3%Mercialys Retail 1,056 42% (44%) (41%) (33%) 17.2x 17.1x 16.8x 8.7x 8.5x 8.4x 10.0% 10.2% 10.2%SFL Offices 3,676 26% (8%) (14%) (15%) 33.5x 32.2x 29.9x 33.1x 29.2x 26.3x 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%Unibail Rodamco - West. Retail 17,212 38% (37%) (36%) (34%) 16.4x 16.1x 15.9x 9.3x 8.9x n.m. 8.7% 8.8% 8.8%

Median 39% (3%) (14%) (15%) 23.4x 19.0x 18.7x 11.9x 11.4x 14.6x 5.3% 5.7% 5.9%

Mid Cap

Cegereal Offices 684 52% 4% (2%) (7%) 25.9x 25.0x 25.0x 16.5x 15.9x n.m. 5.6% 5.8% 6.0%Frey Retail 843 24% 13% 23% (16%) 25.7x 24.0x 20.1x 23.0x 20.0x 17.1x 3.3% 3.3% 5.3%Immobiliere Dassault Offices 518 41% 34% n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.Inea Diversified 349 39% (8%) n.m. n.m. 23.4x 20.3x 17.2x n.m. n.m. n.m. 5.3% 5.7% 5.9%Patrimoine & Commerce Retail 299 47% n.m. (20%) (24%) 18.1x 16.8x 15.3x 10.9x 10.0x 9.4x 5.8% 6.3% 6.7%Selectirente Retail 366 n.m. (3%) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.Société de la Tour Eiffel Offices 627 58% (23%) n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.

Median 44% 1% (2%) (16%) 24.5x 22.2x 18.6x 16.5x 15.9x 13.3x 5.4% 5.7% 6.0%

(1) Market capitalisation based on last spot price as of 31/01/2020

(2) Loan-to-Value (LTV) last reported: Net Financial Debt / Asset Valuation excl. transfer rights

(3) Price / last reported NNNAV

French Players

French Large & Mid Cap

Valuation of Real Estate Stocks (1/4)

Sources: Bloomberg, Companies



European Players (1/3)

European Retail & Offices players



16

Market cap. LTV (%) P / NNNAV


Retail

Altarea Retail 3,354 34% 30% 36% 32% 20.3x 19.2x 17.7x 11.9x 11.4x 11.6x 6.2% 6.4% 6.6%Carmila Retail 2,474 39% (29%) (33%) (33%) 17.1x 16.2x 15.4x 11.2x 11.0x 10.6x 8.3% 8.4% 8.6%Citycon Retail 1,709 50% (19%) (21%) (22%) 19.5x 19.6x 19.2x 13.0x 13.0x 12.8x 6.8% 6.6% 6.6%Deutsche Euroshop Retail 1,538 31% n.m. (41%) (40%) 12.3x 12.5x 12.6x 10.3x 10.2x 10.1x 6.2% 6.4% 6.4%Eurocommercial Retail 1,140 44% (40%) (44%) (44%) 18.4x 18.5x n.m. 18.7x 9.6x 9.5x 4.8% 9.5% 9.6%Hammerson Retail 2,210 37% (67%) (62%) (61%) 17.1x 19.1x 21.2x 9.0x 16.7x 16.8x 10.6% 10.0% 9.8%Intu properties Retail 283 49% (94%) (91%) (90%) 13.7x 15.6x 16.4x 1.8x 1.5x 4.3x - - -Klepierre Retail 9,213 37% (16%) (20%) (16%) 19.0x 18.9x 18.7x 11.4x 11.1x 10.7x 7.0% 7.3% 7.3%Mercialys Retail 1,056 42% (44%) (41%) (33%) 17.2x 17.1x 16.8x 8.7x 8.5x 8.4x 10.0% 10.2% 10.2%Retail Estate Retail 1,051 52% 34% 25% 22% 21.5x 19.7x n.m. 14.5x 13.8x 13.1x 5.3% 5.6% 6.0%Shaftesbury Retail 3,284 23% (8%) (8%) (8%) 41.4x 38.0x n.m. 49.8x 46.7x n.m. 2.0% 2.1% n.m.Unibail Rodamco- West Retail 17,212 38% (37%) (36%) (34%) 16.4x 16.1x 15.9x 9.3x 8.9x n.m. 8.7% 8.8% 8.8%Wereldhave Retail 687 42% (63%) (55%) (52%) 14.3x 14.5x 14.4x 6.1x 6.1x 6.3x 14.8% 13.9% 13.6%

Median 39% (33%) (36%) (33%) 17.2x 18.5x 16.6x 11.2x 11.0x 10.6x 6.8% 7.3% 7.9%

Offices

Alstria Office 3,135 30% 18% 0% (7%) 30.1x 30.5x 28.1x 27.9x 27.7x 25.9x 3.0% 3.0% 3.1%Befimmo Offices 1,407 44% (2%) (8%) (8%) 23.9x 25.1x 24.2x 16.8x 17.3x 17.1x 5.9% 5.9% 5.9%Derwent Offices 5,453 19% 9% 5% 6% 39.2x 34.4x 31.8x 39.0x 35.1x 33.1x 1.8% 1.9% 2.1%Fabege Offices 5,129 39% 37% 18% 7% 40.6x 39.7x 37.2x 36.6x 35.7x 31.9x 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%Gecina Offices 12,537 37% 3% (1%) (4%) 37.2x 36.7x 35.9x 29.1x 28.2x 27.3x 3.3% 3.3% 3.4%Great portland Offices 3,166 6% 10% 8% 8% n.m. n.m. n.m. 51.5x 46.7x 41.3x 1.4% 1.4% 1.5%Immobiliaria Colonial Offices 6,133 41% 43% 9% (0%) 45.6x 43.7x 39.7x 46.9x 45.0x 40.6x 1.8% 2.0% 2.1%PSP Offices 6,221 39% 58% 51% 48% 37.1x 37.1x 36.1x 33.3x 33.1x 30.8x 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%SFL Offices 3,676 26% (8%) (14%) (15%) 33.5x 32.2x 29.9x 33.1x 29.2x 26.3x 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Median 37% 10% (5%) 0% 37.2x 35.5x 33.8x 33.3x 33.1x 30.8x 2.5% 2.5% 2.6%




P / NAV EV / EBITDA P / CF Dividend Yield




European Residential & Diversified & alternative assets



17

Market cap. LTV (%) P / NNNAV


Residential

ADO Properties Residential 1,246 40% (42%) (55%) (55%) 16.8x 31.2x 27.3x 19.0x 20.2x 18.9x 2.7% 2.6% 2.7%Adler Residential 854 65% (52%) (45%) (46%) 18.6x 28.7x 23.4x 10.7x 10.2x 9.6x - - -Deutsche Wohnen Residential 13,681 34% 20% (14%) (16%) 31.2x 32.0x 31.5x 25.7x 25.2x 24.8x 2.5% 2.6% 2.6%Grand City Property Residential 3,856 35% 12% (7%) (11%) 23.8x 22.5x 21.0x 19.8x 18.7x 17.5x 3.6% 3.8% 4.1%LEG Immobilen Residential 7,036 42% 60% 5% (1%) 28.2x 26.3x 24.7x 21.8x 20.6x 19.7x 3.3% 3.5% 3.7%TAG Immobilen Residential 3,465 50% 64% 19% 12% 26.7x 25.4x 23.9x 22.1x 20.6x 19.6x 3.4% 3.7% 3.9%Vonovia Residential 27,992 44% 51% (2%) (8%) 29.0x 26.4x 24.6x 23.5x 21.8x 21.3x 3.0% 3.3% 3.5%

Median 42% 20% (4%) (9%) 27.4x 27.6x 24.7x 21.9x 20.6x 19.7x 3.2% 3.4% 3.6%

Diversified

Aroundtown Diversified 9,503 35% 9% (3%) (11%) 22.1x 19.7x 17.5x 30.1x 27.0x 24.5x 3.3% 3.7% 4.1%British Land Diversified 6,320 31% (28%) (33%) (29%) 15.2x 15.0x 14.7x 17.1x 16.8x 16.0x 5.5% 5.6% 5.8%Castellum Diversified 6,064 45% 46% 13% 7% 25.5x 24.4x 23.8x 21.3x 20.0x n.m. 2.9% 3.0% 3.2%Confinimmo Diversified 3,312 42% 55% 45% 37% 26.8x 25.2x 23.8x 21.2x 20.5x 19.4x 3.7% 3.8% 3.9%Covivio Diversified 9,393 41% 19% 8% 4% 39.3x 38.4x 36.9x 20.3x 19.9x 18.8x 4.4% 4.6% 4.8%Hufvudstaden Diversified 3,664 15% 17% 2% (5%) 34.2x 32.4x 29.8x 35.9x 33.0x 30.2x 2.1% 2.2% 2.4%Icade Diversified 7,387 41% 12% 6% 4% 24.2x 23.5x 21.8x 20.1x 19.3x 17.6x 4.8% 5.0% 5.2%Land Securities Diversified 8,357 26% (31%) (26%) (23%) 23.0x 23.1x 22.9x 16.0x 16.5x n.m. 4.9% 5.0% 5.2%Merlin properties Diversified 6,037 43% (2%) (17%) (19%) 28.1x 26.1x 24.2x 20.1x 19.1x 17.8x 3.9% 4.4% 4.6%Swiss Prime Site Diversified 8,347 48% 76% 49% 42% 26.0x 28.6x 28.6x 29.6x 28.7x 27.3x 3.2% 3.3% 3.3%TLG Diversified 3,382 40% 48% (2%) (7%) 26.8x 26.1x 24.7x 22.4x 20.7x 19.3x 3.1% 3.4% 3.7%

Median 41% 17% 2% (5%) 26.0x 25.2x 23.8x 21.2x 20.0x 19.3x 3.7% 3.8% 4.1%




P / NAV EV / EBITDA P / CF Dividend Yield




Alternative assets



18

Market cap. LTV (%) P / NNNAV P / NAV EV / EBITDA P / CF Dividend Yield


Student housing

Xior Student Prop. 1,014 65% 78% 55% 45% 42.3x 34.6x 28.4x 34.2x 31.2x 26.1x 2.4% 2.6% 2.9%Empiric Student Prop. 716 34% (4%) (8%) (11%) 24.3x 21.5x 20.6x n.m. n.m. n.m. 5.0% 5.0% 5.1%

Median 50% 37% 23% 17% 33.3x 28.1x 24.5x 34.2x 31.2x 26.1x 3.7% 3.8% 4.0%

Healthcare

Aedifica Healthcare 2,957 38% 108% 91% 73% 29.1x 24.1x 20.7x 29.3x 26.5x 23.5x 2.5% 2.9% 3.1%

Assura Healthcare 2,247 30% 50% 45% 40% 27.3x 26.8x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 3.5% 3.7% 3.8%

Care Property Invest. Healthcare 618 79% 107% 83% 67% 36.2x 31.3x 27.6x 33.7x 30.3x 25.7x 2.5% 3.0% 3.3%

PHP Healthcare 2,142 45% 60% 49% 45% 28.9x 25.0x 23.5x n.m. n.m. n.m. 3.5% 3.7% 3.8%

Median 41% 84% 66% 56% 29.0x 25.9x 23.5x 31.5x 28.4x 24.6x 3.0% 3.3% 3.6%

Logistics

WDP Industrials 4,080 55% 151% 118% 87% 30.1x 27.6x 24.7x 26.7x 24.6x 22.8x 2.9% 3.2% 3.5%

Argan Industrials 1,310 n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m.

Segro Industrials 11,819 29% 55% 29% 22% 33.5x 30.3x 27.9x 39.1x 33.7x 30.9x 2.2% 2.4% 2.6%

Median 42% 103% 73% 54% 31.8x 28.9x 26.3x 32.9x 29.2x 26.8x 2.6% 2.8% 3.0%

Hotels

Covivio Hotel Hotel 3,546 39% 14% n.m. n.m. 23.6x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 5.3% n.m. n.m.

Pandox Hotel 3,373 51% n.m. 19% 8% 21.2x 19.0x 18.4x 18.1x 16.3x 15.5x 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%

Median 45% 14% 19% 8% 22.4x 19.0x 18.4x 18.1x 16.3x 15.5x 3.8% 2.5% 2.6%






-90%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

Jan-07 Sep-07May-08Jan-09 Sep-09May-10Jan-11 Sep-11May-12Jan-13Sep-13May-14Jan-15 Sep-15May-16Jan-17 Sep-17May-18Jan-19 Sep-19

Gecina Icade Klépierre Unibail Covivio

Premium/Discount to NAV of Selected Players (last reported)

Average of Premium/Discount to NAV of Selected Players

NAV & P/CF ratios

Long-term Valuation Metrics

Offices & diversified

players (Icade, Covivio

and Gecina) are trading

with a premium to NAV

while retail players

(Klépierre and Unibail)

with a discount to NAV

P/CF ratio is around 16x

P/CF-Forward Evolution of Selected Players

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-190x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11 Jul-12 Jan-14 Jul-15 Jan-17 Jul-18

Gecina Icade Klépierre Unibail Covivio LT Average

Source: Datastream



Other Newsflows from the Real Estate Sector last updated 31st of January 2020

Main asset

transaction

M&A

The Valesco Group has secured the acquisition, of the Finance Tower, a skyscraper located in Brussels’ CBD from

Breevast and ZBG for €1.2bn. This acquisition is the second largest single asset acquisition in mainland Europe ever.

Blackstone Tactical Opportunities and Round Hill Capital, have sold their shares of a residential property portfolio in the

Czech Republic to Heimstaden Bostad AB for a net consideration of €1.3bn. Heimstaden has acquired the largest privately

held residential portfolio in the Czech Republic with 42,584 residential units and 1,675 commercial units.

Varde Partners, who operates under The Dedica Anthology brand, has found an agreement with Covivio to sell a portfolio

of eight luxury hotels located in Nice, Rome, Budapest, Prague, Florence and Venice for €600m.

ECE has completed the purchase of Intu Asturias shopping center from Intu properties plc and Canada Pension Plan

Investment Board for €290m. With that investment, ECE Fund II is fully invested.

Union investment and Generali Real Estate have signed an agreement with Intu and Canada Pension Plan Investment

Board to purchase the Puerto Venecia shopping resort in Zaragoza for €475m.

20

Source: Europe Real Estate

DCM / Credit

The Valesco Group has compelled a €720m senior loan facility from a consortium comprising Allianz, LGIM or Bayern LB to

finance its major purchase.

Aroundtown has announced offer to the holders of its €650m 1.5% notes due 2024 to tender such Notes for purchase for

cash.


Completion of the merger between Aroundtown and TLG. Aroundtown has announced that at the end of the initial

acceptance period for the voluntary exchange offer for all outstanding shares in TLG IMMOBILIEN AG an acceptance level of

59.4% was achieved. TLG shareholders will receive 3.6 Aroundtown shares for each of their shares.

Aedifica launched a voluntary public cash tender offer for all of the issued and outstanding shares in Hoivatilat. The offer

price was EUR 16.00 per share, to be paid fully in cash, valuing Hoivatilat's equity at approximately €408 million. Aedifica

released 98.2% of all issued and outstanding shares and votes in Hoivatilat at the end of that tender offer (30/01/20).

ADLER successfully completed the acquisition of 100% shares in ADO Group for €708m resulting in ADLER holding a

33.25% stake in ADO Properties.

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european listed real estate monthly review february 2020 ... · befimmo +2% +12% +17% 1,565 66% 1.5...

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