EU wide energy scenarios until 2050 generated with the TIMES model

Rainer Friedrich, Markus Blesl

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Universität Stuttgart

EMEP CLRTAP TFIAM

Dublin, May 17-19

The scenario techniqueA scenario is the description of a possible, consistent

future development of a system (e.g. the energy system)

The purposes of scenarios are

• the concretion and quantification of different ideas about the future development of technical systems and the consequences of these conceptions

• the analysis of changes in the analysed system caused by changed exogenous parameters

ETSAP

IEA (International Energy Agency)

Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement

Implementing Agreements

Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP)

Technology oriented analysis of energy system modelswith focus on greenhouse gas abatement strategies:

- Analysis of national and multinational strategies- Technology data review- Model development (MARKAL, TIMES)

Operating Agent

www.etsap.org

Outreach

The PanEU TIMES Model – Characteristics (I)

● Describes the chain from primary energy and energy conversion to demand of energy services

● Determines market allocations of technologies by minimizing total costs, however obeying constraints (minimum or maximum thresholds, maximum potentials and growth,..)

● 30 region model (EU 27 + IS, NO, CH)● Modelling horizon 2000 – 2050● 12 time slices (4 seasonal, 3 day level)● Detailed power generation sector (CO2 sequestration and

capture options, CHP included) based on IER power plant database with 25,000 units included

● Country specific differences for characterisation of new power plants

● Country specific load curves based on UTCE statistics

Regions in the Pan-EU model and plannedelectricity interconnection extensions

950 MW

250 MW

500 MW

1400 MW600 MW

2330 MW

1200 MW700 MW

1400 MW

1800 MW

900 MW

1800 MW600 MW

200 MW

1000 MW

800 MW

600 MW110 MW

600 MW

500 MW700 MW

1320 MW

European Priority Projects

P in MW

Year

DE DK 500 2012

AT CZ 900 2009

IT SI 800 2011

PL LT 1000 2013

ES FR 1200 2009

BE FR 400 2015

NL UK 1320 2010

Matching CO2 sources and sinks cost potential curve for CO2 transport and storage for Europe

emission sources and sinks transport and storage costs

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 301 601 901 1201 1501Cumulated annual CO2 transport and

storage quantity [Mt]

Tran

spor

t and

sto

rage

cos

ts [E

uro/

tCO

2] Other not spec.UtsiraAquifer onshoreAquifer offshoreHydrocarbon onshoreHydrocarbon offshoreCoal seam / ECBM

Nuclear power plants in Europe

● Germany, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Phase out decision

● France, UK, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Finland, Lithuania, Slovenia, Poland Italy

New nuclear power plants

Electricity generation from renewables according to current EU-27+3 RES policies

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ann

ual E

lect

ricity

Pro

duct

ion

[TW

h]

Tide + Wave

Biomass solid

Biomass gas /liquidWaste

Solarthermal

Photovoltaic

Geothermal

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Hydro small +large

Potentials of electricity generation from renewables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Ann

ual E

lect

ricity

Pro

duct

ion

[TW

h]

Tide + Wave

Biomass solid

Biomass gas /liquidWaste

Solarthermal

Photovoltaic

Geothermal

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Hydro small +large

Invest costs of new non renewable power plants in TIMES PanEU (excerpt) –from NEEDS and OECD

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

Spec

. inv

est c

osts

[€20

07/k

W]

Hard coal condens. PP (800 MW) Hard coal condens. PP (800 MW), 700 °CHard coal CCS (740MW) Lignite condens. PP (1050MW)Lignite condens. PP (700 °C) (1050MW) Lignite CCS (970MW)Natural gas combined cycle (500MW) EPR nuclear power

Invest costs of new renewable power plants in TIMES PanEU (excerpt)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

Sp

ec.

invest

co

sts

[€

20

07/

kW

]

Wind turbine onshore Wind turbine offshore class. 1 Wind turbine offshore class 2

Wind turbine offshore class 3 Wind turbine offshore class 4 Photovoltaic roof panel

Photovoltaic plant size

General assumptions

EU27 2007 2030 2050

Population

[Mio.]495.3 493.3 471.7

GDP

[Bill. €2000]

- Average annual growth 2010 - 2050: 1.8%

- Regional differences among countries

Oil price

[US$2007/bbl]69 75 78

Other assumptions - Restricted use of nuclear power

- Implementation of EU biofuel directive

Definition of scenarios

REF

-Business as usual case

-CO2 emission reduction ETS-Sectors (related to 2005):-21 % until 2020-55 % until 2050 (1,74%/a)

-Current national pograms for promoting/subsidizing renewable energies continue(which leads to 40% CO2 reduction 1990 - 2050)

450ppm- CO2 emission reduction ETS-Sectors (related to 2005):

-31.5 % until 2020-1.74 % p.a. after 2030

-Overall reduction of greenhause gases (related to 1990):-71 % until 2050

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tran

spor

t FEC

[PJ]

ElectricityNatural GasBiogasHydrogen (g)Hydrogen (l)Methanol fossilMethanol bioDimethyleter fossilDimethyleter bioFT-Diesel fossilFT-Diesel bioEthanolBiodieselHeavy fuel oilKeroseneLPGGasolineDiesel

Transport final energy conumption by fuel (EU27), goods transport, air traffic increasing

Industry● Processes (production of iron & steel, cement, paper and chemicals)

cause highest energy demand

● Step 1: improve efficiency, use waste heat

● Step 2: change processes (e.g. electric arc furnace for iron & steel, dry processes for clincer production);

from 2030 on CCS

leads to increasing electricity demand

Households and Trade and Commerce● Increasing electricity demand due to increasing use of electric and

electronic devices and more air conditioning

● Insulation leads to decreasing demand for heating

Reference: more gas, wood, solar thermal

Climate scenario: further enhanced insulation;

use of electric and gas heat pumps;

to less extent use of heat from decentralised CHP plants using gas

Electricity generation in the EU-27

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Sta

tistic

RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm RE

F

450p

pm

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Net

ele

ctric

ity g

ener

atio

n [T

Wh]

Others / Wastenon-ren.OtherRenewablesBiomass /Waste ren.Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Lignite

Coal

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Stat

istic

REF

450p

pm REF

450p

pm REF

450p

pm REF

450p

pm REF

450p

pm2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tota

l fin

al e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n [P

J]

Others (Methanol,Hydrogen)

Waste

Renewables

Heat

Electricity

Gas

Petroleumproducts

Coal

Final energy consumption (EU27)

*PRIMES data according to „European Energy and Transport, Trends to 2030 - Update 2007“ (EC 2008)

Comparison ofTIMES PanEU

andPRIMES*

Electricity generation in the EU-27

3158

35683169

3839

3144

4078

3225

4273

3138

4408

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000TI

ME

S P

anE

U

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ele

ctric

ity g

ener

atio

n ne

t [TW

h]

Hydro, Wind,Other

Thermal powerplants (incl.Biomass)

Nuclear Power

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

2000 2010 2020 2030

Tran

spor

t FEC

[PJ]

Inland Navigation

Aviation

Trains

Trucks

Public RoadTransportPrivate Cars andMotorcycles

Transport FEC by mode (EU27)

Electricity capacity in Germany166

144156

149 146157 154

161 166158

020406080

100120140160180

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

TIM

ES

Pan

EU

PR

IME

S

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ele

ctric

ity c

apac

ity n

et [G

W] Other not spec.

Biomass /WasteSolar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Conclusions● The assumptions made strongly influence the scenario results. It is thus

essential to describe the assumptions and to make sensitivity analyses to find out how robust the results are.

● Improving energy efficiency is a key element for climate and health protection.

● The future price of gas – and the availability of CCS - determines, whether gas (in the reference case without CCS) or coal is used; lignite – with CCS -is further used in countries with lignite resources.

● CO2 reduction is especially expansive in the transport sector. Thus only in the climate scenario a major shift to BTL and electricity is occurring.

● Water, wind, wood, biogas are the least expensive renewables. Depending on the development of PV costs solar thermal (more likely) or PV rank next. The share of BTL and electricity in transport depends on the ambition of the climate objective and the progress in battery development.