| Strategic thinking in sustainable energy

EU Road Transport to 2030 – potential evolution and the role of biofuels

Ralph Ripken

Neue Biokraftstoffe 2015

2nd March 2015

E4tech: Strategic thinking in sustainable energy

• International consulting firm, offices in UK and Switzerland

• Focus on sustainable energy

• Established 1997, always independent

• Deep expertise in technology, techno-economic modelling, environmental assessment, markets, policy, business and strategy

• A spectrum of clients from start-ups to global corporations, investors, governments and international organisations

The EU Auto-Fuel Biofuels study provides a vision and roadmap for biofuels in the EU to 2030

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• Transport energy and environment issues

• Policy picture is uncertain and fragmented

• Industry activity also fragmented and biofuels deployment ineffective

• But decarbonisation and renewable energy targets challenging

• Independent study by E4tech commissioned by fuels and auto industries

• Looks at what can be achieved in terms of sustainable biofuel supply and its integration into vehicle fleet by 2030

NGO

POLICY VEHICLES

FUELS Steering Group

Stakeholders

The study aims to identify a biofuel-vehicle roadmap that addresses risks and uncertainties to the satisfaction of auto, fuels, consumers and policy

stakeholders

We used time-resolved models of biofuel supply and uptake by vehicles

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Biofuel supply model

• Considers global crop planting rates, fuel processing plant build-up, env. and other constraints

• Outputs biofuel component volumes, costs, well to tank CO2

Biofuel uptake model

• Considers vehicle fleet size, replacement rates, usage trends, technology costs and CO2 legislation; demand from aviation, marine, rail & off-highway

• Outputs parc composition and its bio-compatibility, vehicle and infrastructure costs, potential biofuel uptake, tank to wheels CO2

Vehicle fleet baseline

Model of potential biofueluptake

Model of potential biofuelsupply

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Context scenarios

START

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Pathways

Project Output

Matching

Oils, LC biomass, glycerine, starch & sugar

crops

Trans-esterification, hydro-processing, gasification + FT,

microbial conversion, pyrolysis

Biodiesel, diesel

Glycerine, LC biomassGasification + chemical

synthesisDME

Organic wastes, LC biomass

Anaerobic digestion, gasification

Biomethane

Starch & sugar crops, organic wastes, LC

biomass

Fermentation, gasification, microbial

conversion

Bioethanol, biomethanol, gasoline

Organic wastes, LC biomass

Pyrolysis Gasoline, diesel

Fuel Additional Technology

Additional per vehicle cost over E10/B7 (Euro 6) baseline

Car LDV Bus Truck

E20 Materials, calibration, CO2 optimization potential if octane number increased

+ n/a n/a n/a

E85 Wide-range lambda-sensing, new fuel lift pump, fuel injection system material (stainless steel), CO2 optimization potential if octane number increased

++ n/a n/a n/a

B10 Materials, calibration, oil sensing/ change interval ++ ++ ++ ++

B20 Further after-treatment optimization (higher noble metal content), CO2 penalty for 3-5 g CO2/km, new DPF regeneration strategy, oil sensing

+++ +++ +++ +++

Liquid fossil fuels likely to continue to dominate road transport fuel supply to 2030.....

5 Note: liquid bio-components would be part of gasoline and diesel pools

102 69 67 70 70 58 57 58 58

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172 171 171 171 165 162 157 152

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A B C D A B C D

Mto

e/y

ear

EU Road transport fuel demand

H2 Electricity NG

LPG Diesel type fuels Gasoline type fuels

2010 2020 2030

Scenario:

Biofuels alone could contribute at least 8% of the 10% RED target in 2020

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1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

1.3% 1.3% 1.3%

1.9%

3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Contribution of biofuels to the RED target

Road - Diesel non drop-in supply

Road - Diesel drop-in

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Ethanol]

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Butanol]

Road - Biogas

Total double-counting biofuels*

Off road - Biofuel

Inland shipping - Biofuel

Aviation - Biofuel

Rail - Biodiesel

* This amount represents the calculated total amount of biofuels used in transport that are eligible for double counting

By 2030, biofuels could contribute between 12 to 15% of road transport fuel energy

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0.8% 0.8% 1.3%

1.5%

2.7% 2.6% 2.3%

2.2%

2.3% 2.9% 2.9%

6.0%

4.6% 3.6%

4.6%

2.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Biofuel contribution to transport fuel by 2030 (on energy basis)

Road - Diesel non drop-in supply

Road - Diesel drop-in

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Ethanol]

Road - Gasoline non drop-in [Butanol]

Road - Biogas

Off road - Biofuel

Inland shipping - Biofuel

Aviation - Biofuel

Rail - Biodiesel

Successful deployment of biofuels will depend on a shared fuel and automotive industry vision and roadmap

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Develop E20 fuel standard

Deploy E10 to max. availability by 2020

E20 introduction as a base blend in 2025 and E10 becomes the protection

grade

Introduction of E20 tolerant vehicles into the fleet

All new gasoline vehicles E20 compatible from 2018

Only 62% of vehicles would be E20 tolerant in 2025. The following options would increase this proportion to a level that would allow mass introduction of E20 in 2025: car sales incentives, a shift to more gasoline sales, engine re-mapping

E20 Consumer awareness programme

Gas

olin

e ve

hic

les

Eth

ano

l ble

nd

s

8.3% ethanol because 18% of all gasoline refuelling is done at forecourts with only E5 and 20% of E10 compatible

vehicle owners will refuel with E5 while E10 is available

Start with 3 grade markets and progress to 2 grade markets later. Max. fuel

availability reached by 2030

B7 remains FAME blend limit

First of a kind/early commercial LC etOH, butanol, FT diesel, HVO

First of a kind and early commercial plants of additional new technologies, e.g. micro-algae, sugar to diesel, pyrolysis

Ramp up of technologies

FAM

E N

ove

l bio

fuel

s

A coherent and overarching road transport policy to 2030 remains critical in meeting climate and energy objectives

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2030 Sustainable Transport Strategy

Vehicles policy

EU 2030 road transport policy

Vehicle energy infrastructure

policy Fuels policy

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50

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2020 2030 - No FQD 2030 - 6% FQD 2030 - 10% FQD

MtC

O2

GHG savings compared to 2010

Reduction in upstreamflaring & venting forfossil fuels

Biofuels (liquid andgaseous)

Net reduction indemand across thefleet and use ofalternative fuels

Overall emission savings led by efficiency, but biofuels could contribute around 21% of savings in 2030

21%

Liquid fuels will remain in particular in the HDV sector, biofuels will be important for deep decarbonisation

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59% 12%

29%

2010

57%

13%

30%

2020

54%

13%

33%

2030

PC

LDV

HDV

Energy demand by vehicle category

A harmonised biofuels roadmap is important in achieving the EU 2030 climate and energy policy proposal’s aims

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The roadmap is:

• Relevant to the policy proposal’s context

• EU increasingly dependent on energy imports

• EU 2050 Roadmaps – Transport: GHG savings: 60% by 2050 (1990); 20% by 2030 (2008)

• Aligned with its high level policy objectives

• EU-wide energy market integration

• Cooperation between MSs in developing national plans

• Affordable, competitive, secure and sustainable energy

• Energy sector contribution to jobs and growth

• Important in meeting the GHG emissions and renewable targets

• GHG emissions reduction target to 2030 (40% r. 1990)

• Renewable energy target (27%)

A biofuels policy framework should cover sustainability, advanced biofuels, infrastructure and consumer issues

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A sustainability framework should encourage:

• certification of biofuels

• use of waste or underutilised resources

• biofuels with greater GHG savings

• ILUC mitigation measures

• a global market

An advanced biofuels framework should:

• specify share of emissions reductions from advanced biofuels

• provide support to a cross-industry roadmap to 2030

• include initiatives at MS level

A framework on infrastructure and vehicles requires:

• a CEN mandate to develop E20

• harmonisation of blend rates across Europe

• consumer engagement

Alignment with current 2030 policy proposals on biofuels sustainability and competition between uses of biomass resources

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Links to the studies: Harmonised Auto-Fuel biofuel Roadmap

for the EU to 2030

EU 2030 Road Transport Decarbonisation Analysis