eu gcc clean energy network ii · iea 2016 key renewable trends ren21 global status report 2016....
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EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK IIJoin us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: [email protected]
Dra. Ana Rosa Lagunas
Director,
Photovoltaic Solar Energy department
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Agenda
• Context for 2016 Renewable Energies development
• World Energy Mix. Prospects and forecasts– An approach to Renewable Energies (Wind, Biomass, Solar, Other)
• GCC countries
– Opportunities
• Solar photovoltaic energy
– Markets
– Prices and the learning curve
– Components production
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EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK IIJoin us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: [email protected]
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2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES
• Cumulative world renewable capacity surpassed that of coal.
• A record amount of new Renewable Energy capacity was installed in 2015 that represented 55% of total additions
• 153 GW of new capacity connected to the grid:
– 66GW record level wind additions
– 49GW record level PV additions
Source: Global outlook report 2016, IEA
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2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES
• COP21 Paris Agreement gives momentum to renewables
• Local air pollution & energy security are also key drivers
• Global Energy investment confirms transition to renewables
– 17% investment in renewables
– 12% investment in energy efficiency
• In order to continue that trend, policy makers need to provide investors more clarity & certainty
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New policies underpin a more bullish forecast for renewables
Electricity and renewable generation growth by country/region
Source: Total electricity generation from World Energy Outlook 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
China India ASEAN Africa EU28 United States Japan
TWh
Electricity generation growth (2015-21) Renewable generation growth (2015-21)
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New policies underpin a more bullish forecast for renewables
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100
200
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MTRMR 2015 Forecast 2014-2020 MTRMR 2016 Forecast 2015-21
Net ad
ditio
ns (GW
)
Others
Brazil
India
China
Japan
United States
EU28
Renewable electricity capacity growth (GW) in MTRMR’s main case
Source: IEA Medium Term Market Report
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2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES
• Other areas of investment for development of Renewable Energies
– Strategies for system integration of variable renewables (wind and solar PV) must be developed and implemented
– Application of renewable energy to heat (industry and buildings)
– Biofuels also as an alternative for automotive industry
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2015 A YEAR OF RECORDS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGIES: SPECIFIC FOR PV
• More optimistic forecasts in some scenarios suggest that PV could reach 700GW in 2020 (Solar Power Europe, Global Market outlook 2016)
• A new global organization has been created:
Global solar power foundation
– Headquarters in China
– Secretariat in US
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EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK IIJoin us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: [email protected]
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ESTIMATED RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE OF GLOBAL FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION, 2014
IEA 2016 Key Renewable Trends
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
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ESTIMATED RENEWABLE ENERGY SHARE OF GLOBAL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, END 2015
IEA 2016 Key Renewable Trends
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
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AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY AND BIOFUELS PRODUCTION
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
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RENEWABLE POWER CAPACITIES IN WORLD, EU-28, BRICS AND TOP SEVEN COUNTRIES, END-2015
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
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BIOMASS: GLOBAL BIO-POWER GENERATION
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
Electricity (and heat) generation in Biomass plants
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BIFUELS GLOBAL PRODUCTION, SHARES BY TYPE AND BY COUNTRY/REGION, 2015
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
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BIOMASS: BIOFUELS CHARACTERISTICS
• Biofuels could technically substitute oil in all transport modes, with existing power train technologies and existing re-fuelling infrastructures. Use of biomass resources can also decarbonise synthetic fuels, methane and LPG.
– First generation biofuels are based on traditional crops, animal fats, used cooking oils. They include FAME biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane.
– Advanced and second generation biofuels are produced from ligno-cellulosic feedstock and wastes. They include bioethanol, HVO, higher alcohols, DME, BTL and biomethane.
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BIOMASS: REQUIREMENTS FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS COMPLY (FEEDSTOCK)
From a feedstock and process point of view advanced biofuels should fulfill at least the following criteria:
• Focus on sustainability
• Feedstock production should not compete with food production
• Feedstock production should not harm the environment (e.g. cause deforestation, ground water pollution etc.)
• Feedstock production and fuel processing should be efficient from a GHG point of view.
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BIOMASS: REQUIREMENTS FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS COMPLY (END-USE)
The criteria from an end-use point of view:
• At least equivalent end-use quality compared with traditional mineral oil based fuels
• Compatibility with existing refueling infrastructure
• Compatibility with existing vehicles
• Fuel components that do not only provide heating value but also a possibility for reduced harmful exhaust emissions.
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BIOMASS: BIOFUELS SUMMARY
• The production of biofuels from both food and energy crops (1st Gen) is limited by the availability of land, water, energy and co-product yields, and sustainability considerations, such as the life-time accountancy of CO2 emissions. Second generation biofuels from wastes and residues are also limited by the availability of these materials.
• The development of feedstock potential and of optimized production processes is of the highest priority.
• A supportive policy framework and harmonized standards for biofuels are key elements for the future uptake of sustainable biofuels.
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GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
• Depends on the type of resource available
– High temperature resources (>150ºC): produce hot water and vapor. Can be used for heating and for electricity (water is given back to the original place).
– Medium- low temperature (30ºC-150ºC): used mostly for district heating, spas, greenhouses… and in some cases for electricity
– Low temperature (<30ºC): for clymatization, usually through a heat pump
• 2,3% growth rate since 1990 until 2015 and stable
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GEOTHERMAL POWER CAPACITY AND ADDITIONS, TOP 10 COUNTRIES AND REST OF WORLD, 2015
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
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GEOTHERMAL ENERGY: MAIN USERS
Source: ERA-NET GEOTHERMAL (2015)
• Policy support and more R&D in order to find adequate applications are needed
• Increase of medium-low temperature usersSource: ERA-NET GEOTHERMAL (2015)
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GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
• There are concerns about environmental impacts
• On the technological side, there are six areas of interest:
– Exploration, measurement and logging
– Drilling technology
– Reservoir creation and enhancement
– Induced seismicity
– Surface technology (heat and electricity production, …)
• Policy support needed
• Effort on R&D
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ESTIMATED DIRECT AND INDIRECT JOBS IN GCC REGION BY 2030
Source: Renewable Energy Market Analysis: the GCC region (IRENA-2016)
Achieving the GCC Renewable Energy targets could create 140.000 jobs per
year, and up to 210.000 in 2030, 85% Solar (PV and CSP)
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PPA PRICE OFFERS FOR SOLAR PV AND WIND ONSHORE POWER PLANTS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
REN21 Global Status Report 2016
Source: Solar Power Europe – Global Market Outlook 2016 based on International Energy Agency data
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EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK IIJoin us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: [email protected]
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EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED CAPACITY: confidence in numbers?
• From 50 to 59 GW installed in 2015
• Who’s right, who’s wrong ?
• Counting apples, pears… and more ?
• Some rules
• Counting AC numbers is simply wrong
switch to DC or count both.
• What does « installed » means?
Commissioned?
• Production > shipments > installations …
…
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EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL TOTAL SOLAR PV INSTALLED: WHAT ABOUT 2016 until 2020?
Source: PV Market Alliance – Becquerel Institute 2016
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SCENARIOS FOR GLOBAL SOLAR PV ROOFTOP AND UTILITY SCALE SEGMENTS DEVELOPMENT 2015-2020
Source: Solar Power Europe 2016
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A tale of 2 markets
Distributed PV
Centralized PVProsumers
Producers
Grid injection, PPA,
competition with
utilities generation
business
Self-consumption,
energy effiency, grid
parity, competition
with utilities
distribution business
One technology
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EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK IIJoin us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: [email protected]
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Production of photovoltaic cells and modules by region
Navigant Consulting and Paula Mints;
graphics PSE AG 2016
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Production share of cells and photovoltaic modules by region
Navigant Consulting and Paula Mints;
graphics PSE AG 2016
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Evolution of the main companies producing cells / modules
IHS Research, CompareMySolar.co.uk r
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% Annual production: Evolution by technologies
PSE AG 2016
50,6GWp production at 2015
93% was c-Si wafer based, multi-Si, 69%,
7%
69%
24%
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Evolution of the market share of HCPV and LCPV technologies
ISE 2016
HCPV from 300 to 1000 times concentration, LCPV under 300
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Energy Pay-Back Time for PV and CPV SystemsDifferent Technologies located in Catania, Sicily, Italy
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EU GCC CLEAN ENERGY NETWORK IIJoin us: www.eugcc-cleanergy.net Contact us: [email protected]
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Evolution of the average monthly price of modules sold in Europe by technology and country of origin
Manufacturing costs continue to be reduced, although there is a slight slowdown
PvXchange and GTM research
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EVOLUTION OF MODULES PRICE: THE LEARNING CURVE
PvXchange and GTM research
• The Learning curve concept is an empirical way of
looking at COSTS decrease (due to technology
improvements).
• Has been theorized for semi-conductors well before
PV (BCG)
• Prices vs Costs
• Automation, industrialization, different cost
paradigm in China (cheaper equipment…)…
• Range of costs and prices: LC is perfect for low
prices but what for emerging technologies?
• Modules or cells?
Funded byPvXchange and GTM research
MODULES PRICE: PUBLIC DATA AND FORECASTS
Cost reduction based on:
• Polisilicon reduction (thickness)
• Efficiency of PV cell
• Automation and manufacturing
Processes, cell and module
• 20% in 2 years
• In the case of thin film technology
reduction mostly due to efficiency
increase and manufacturing
improvement
Module (33%, 46%, 41%)
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THE COST OF PV ENERGY
PvXchange and GTM research
• We have been speaking about price of components,
however, is the cost of kWh obtained what will make PV
technology competitive
On the technical side:
• Good irradiation conditions (site)
• Optimum design
• Optimum components (modules & BOS)
• Adequate M&O
On the financial side:
• FIT or alternative support policy (or not)
• Banking conditions…
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PPA PRICE OFFERS FOR SOLAR PV AND WIND ONSHORE POWER PLANTS IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
REN21 Global Status Report 2016