Ethnic Diversity and Development in Africa

ECON 3510 Carleton University

June 12, 2014

A. Ritter

Source: Text, Chapter 8

Outline: 1. Introduction

2. What is Ethnic Identity?

3. Ethnic Identity in Africa

4. Why might Ethnic Identity be dysfunctional? Or not?

(Collier’s argument)

5. Does Ethnic Identity Cause Civil Strife or War?

6. Policy Implications

1. Introduction Ethnic identity:

A powerful and primordial force.

A source of mutual and general enrichment?

A curse? the source of discrimination, corruption, victimization, civil conflict?

Ethnic fragmentation: accused of causing

Civil conflict

Dysfunctional Politics, messed up economic policy and poor economic performance

Are these accusations correct?

To what extent and in what senses?

Africa: The most ethnically fragmented region in

the world? Perhaps.

But:

Ethnic homogeneity as in North Korea: no guarantee of anything

Note the costs of historical ethnic homogenization and nation-building in France, Spain, Germany, Greece, Turkey, Britain, Estonia, Yugoslavia etc.

Note the phenomenon of the “ethnic state” in Europe;

Note also Papua New Guinea (with 820 different languages for 6.4 million people in 2013.)

African Ethnic Groups

Kenya

Cote d’Ivoire

2. What is Ethnic Identity?

Traditional human identity was based on kin-ship groups or clans

Effective means of socio-econo-political organization for millennia

– “effective mechanisms of information sharing, contract enforcement, and lifetime membership rules”

2. What is Ethnic Identity cont’d

• A foundation for economic cooperation, on the production side and on sharing regarding consumption;

current echoes in family oriented enterprises, ethnically based economic activities (such as diamond trade in New York, or the “Patels”) in complex market economies

Sharing within extended families and the “village”

Echoes in family dynasties and tribe-based political systems in many parts of the world;

• also in ethno-religious groups such as Mennonites and Hutterites.

But: in complex large nation states with fractionalized ethnicities, how effective can the tribe be in eliciting cooperation for the common well-being at the national level?

Note that tribes have constructed lasting political alliances within political parties sometimes (Embu, Meru Kikuyu, and maybe Kamba in Kenya)

In some cases, ethnic loyalties have been transformed into broader loyalties at a broader tribal level or multi-tribal level

But “Nation-Building” or developing a national identity must also be an imperative for a complex society. (note Nyerere in Tanzania)

Measuring Ethnic Fragmentation: The ELF Index or “Ethno-Linguistic

Fractionalization Index”: a measure of ethnic differentiation or diversity; designed to quantify the phenomenon

(A concept from Political Science also used extensively by economists because it is quantitative!)

“the probability that two people selected at random will be from a different ethnic group”

Homogenous societies: one ethnic group only: Score 0

Maximum heterogeneity, each person is ethnically distinct: Score 1.00

Measuring Ethnic Fragmentation: The ELF Index or “Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization

Index”: “the probability that two people selected at random will be from a different ethnic group”

Homogenous societies: one ethnic group only: Score 0

Maximum heterogeneity, each person is ethnically distinct: Score 1.00

Country Score

Burundi 0.04

Somalia 0.08

Lesotho 0.22

Nigeria 0.87

Uganda 0.90

Kenya 0.83

Tanzania 0.93

Source: D. M. Posner, Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa, American Journal

of Political Science, 48:4, 2004

Measuring Ethnic Fragmentation, cont’d: ELF Index: “the probability that two people selected at

random will be from a different ethnic group”

Problem with measure:

– Does not measure the depth of ethnic divisions

–does not distinguish between countries where there is one tribe dominance among many and where there are numerous small ethnic groups

–No consideration of religious cleavages

–No consideration of regional dimensions or ethnic location

Two distinct situations or cases: ethnic dominance;

and ethnic fragmentation

Is ethnic fractionalization or dominance the source of difficulties?

Is ethnic diversity or ethnic dominance the source of victimization of smaller groups? Or other factors?

(e.g. Jews and Gypsies in Hitler’s Germany;

Tutsis in Rwanda.

Asians in Amin’s Uganda?)

3. Ethnic Identity in Africa:

Various cases: Single ethnic group: Swaziland

Two or a few: Rwanda, Burundi, Botswana, Lesotho

One or two dominant among numerous:

Kenya, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia….

Very many; none dominant: Congo, Tanzania, Nigeria, Liberia, ……

4. Why might Ethnic Identity be dysfunctional?

• Primordial ethnic loyalties may overwhelm

national purpose;

• Ethnic dominance may permanently bias public policy in favour of the dominant group

• Minority groups may lose out

[May operate through democratic mechanisms or various types of dictatorships ]

Why might Ethnic Identity be dysfunctional cont’d?

• In order to maintain dominance when challenged, May subvert democratic mechanisms with coup d’etats or repression

• “Redistribution” in favour of the dominant group may be at the expense of regional and ethnic balance and economic growth

5. Why might Ethnic Identity be dysfunctional, cont’d?

Relevance of ethnic diversity for policy making

depends on a number of factors:

Nature of political system :

Democracy vs. Dictatorship;

Predatory vs. Benevolent Dictatorship

Proportional Representation vs. Simple Majority;

Single-issue politics vs. multi issue politics

Ethnic Fragmentation or Dominance

Collier makes logical analyses of a number of these followed by statistical analyses, summarized in the chapter

[Omit the detail of the statistical analysis, look at the results]

Collier’s statistical analysis:

Based on

– estimates of private and public capital stock;

– for 56 countries in Africa;

– estimations of production functions;

– estimated measures of ethnic diversity (the ELF Index).

Does ethnic diversity raise or lower the productivity of public and private capital stock? Mixed results:

oHigher diversity raises productivity of private capital not

public capital, i.e. national public goods are de-emphasized (weaker community orientation)

o Lower diversity lowers productivity of private capital and raises that of public capital i.e. national public goods are emphasized (stronger community orientation?)

oMagnitudes are not too significant

5. Does Ethnic Diversity Cause Civil Strife? Recent cases:

Nigeria: Ogoni and others seeking a greater share of the oil wealth vs. Federal Government;

Kenya: Luo-Kikuyu rivalry;

Chad: Rival groups vie for oil wealth;

Sudan vs. South Sudan

Current cases:

Somalia: Clan/territorial and sub-clan divisions wreck havoc;

Mali: Groups (Taureg and Islamists) in northern region again press for separation, following coup d’etat in the capital city; currently major chaos;

Nigeria: Ethnic/Religio/Regional/Territorial/Banditry: Boko Haram

Southern Sudan: Dinka-Nuer rivalry and conflict

Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2012

Central African Republic: Gov. vs Seleka

Dem. Rep. of Congo: Gov. vs M23

Ethiopia (Ogaden): Gov. vs ONLF

Gov. vs OLF

Mali: Gov. vs Ansar Dine;

Gov. vs Military faction

Gov. vs MNLA

Nigeria: Gov. vs Boko Haram

Rwanda: Gov. vs FDLR

Somalia: Gov. vs Al-Shabaab

South Sudan: Gov vs. SSLM/A

Major Armed Conflicts, 1999–2008

Note the steady dec line for Africa Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook009

Collier’s conclusion:

Most conflicts have an ethnic dimension; but the

real underlying cause and motivation may be control of resource wealth

i.e. conflicts get patterned on ethnicity or religion, though fundamental causes usually lie elsewhere

A key factor re civil conflicts: financing the rebels Civil conflict will continue only as long as financial

resource permit it.

[plus support in men and armaments]

Where do funds come from to support the rebels?

Where does physical support in men and munitions come from?

Some Recent African cases

Liberia, Sierra Leone, earlier: diamond trade

Somalia: from Eritria? Al Queda? Foreign Jihadists?

Chad: Oil revenues

The role of Diasporas in supporting rebellion:

e.g. external financing of Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka: of central importance

Significance in Africa? Unclear

Eritrean diaspora in Europe: a major role in supporting the Independence movement

Somali diaspora now: support for the Transitional Federal parliament

Liberia in the past

6. Policy Implications

Ethnically diverse societies

(1) do not have a worse economic performance

(2) are actually safer than more homogenous societies.

The strong accusations made against ethnic diversity are not supported by theoretical argument or empirical evidence.

1. Small secessionist ethnically more homogenous states may be more prone to conflict than larger multi-ethnic states.

Therefore, support the continued existence of large multi-ethnic states such as Nigeria, Sudan (says Collier), Kenya, Tanzania etc.

Don’t promote or support break-up.

2. In countries with “ethnic dominance” the risk of civil conflict is higher. Therefore, protect minorities more effectively and share public expenditures and tax burdens with minorities more equitably

3. Promote reasonable sharing or resource revenues among local, provincial and federal governments (as in Nigeria); promote greater federalist decentralization and “fiscal federalism”

4. Promote greater transparency and equity in public sector and service hiring among ethnic groups

5. Further democratize ethnically diverse countries, to promote fairer sharing of revenues and facilitate productive cooperation

6. For OECD countries: monitor and co-ordinate monitoring diaspora organizations to ensure that they are not feeding Civil war combatants. (relevant for Tamil Tigers)

7. Because dependence on a single primary commodity can encourage conflict (see the “oil economy syndrome or “resource curse”) promote diversification of exports

Conclusions: 1. Ethnically diverse societies do not have a

worse economic performance and are actually safer than more homogenous societies

2. The accusations made against ethnic diversity are not supported by empirical evidence.

3. Ethnic “Dominance” not “Fractionalization” may be more problematic and can increase the risk of civil conflict and damage economic performance

4. “Fractionalized” societies are viable but secessionist movements should be discouraged. (South Sudan?)

Question: Are religious differences now more significant than ethnic differences? Or do religious differences coincide with ethnic differences?