ethical dimensions of climate change -...

Michael Raupach and Pep Canadell

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change

Outline

u Climate and the enhanced greenhouse effect

u Response strategies

u Ethical dimensions

Greenhouse gases in the Earth System

u Radiatively active (greenhouse) gases include water vapour, CO2, methane, others

u Together they cause Earth to be about 30 C warmer than it would otherwise be

u Increasing the concentrations of (CO2, methane, others) increases the warming

u Water vapour follows temperature (positive feedback) because Earth is wet

u There are other significant influences on the radiative balance of the Earth:

ï Solar fluctuations (visible-NIR, UV)

ï Volcanos

ï Pollution, fire aerosols (global dimming)

Solar radiation

Thermal radiation

IPCC (2001) Third Assessment, Vol 1

Present climate change

u Evidence for causes

ï Records of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere

ï Inventories of GHG emissions

u Evidence for consequences

ï Instrumental temperature record

ï Satellite temperature record

ï Glacier records

ï Sea level rise

ï Changes in plant phenology

ï Ecosystem changes

ï Ö .

Atmospheric CO2: last 450,000 years

u Last 450,000 years:Vostok ice core record(blue)

u Last 100 years:Contemporary record(red)

u Next 100 years: IS92A scenario(red)

Emissions

250-year records of:

u CO2 emissions

u Changing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere

u Changing global mean temperatures (from instrumental record with effects of urbanisation removed)

0

1000

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Fo

ssil

Fu

el E

mis

sio

n (

MtC

/yr)

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Atm

osp

her

ic [

CO

2] (

pp

mv)

Emissions

[CO2]

270

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390

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Atm

osp

her

ic [

CO

2] (

pp

mv)

-0.6

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Tem

per

atu

re A

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mal

y (d

egC

)[CO2]

Temperature

CO2 emissions

atmospheric CO2

atmospheric CO2

temperature

0.2 C/decade

Global temperature

u Temperature records from meteorological stations and proxy data

u 1860-2000

u 1000-2000 (Mann ìHockey-stickî diagram)


Satellite temperature record

u Global daily mean satellite-observed tropospheric temperatures show a trend of 0.22∞to 0.26∞C per decade, consistent with trend from surface measurements

u Vinnikov and Grody (2003, Science)

Australian climate over 100 y: maximum temperature

Australian mean daily maximum temperature

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1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

me

an a

nn

ual t

em

p (d

eg C

)

Torok and Nicholls 1996BoM climateSILO griddedBoM gridded

Sources:

u Torok, S.J. and Nicholls, N. (1996). A historical annual temperature dataset for Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 45, 251-260

u BoM climate data set (http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi)

u SILO gridded data set (Queensland Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy)

u BoM gridded data set (Jones, Plummer et al 2005, part of Australian Water Availability Project)

2005?

Australian climate over 100 y: minimum temperature

Australian mean daily minimum temperature

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12.5

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1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mea

n a

nnu

al te

mp

(de

g C

)

Torok and Nicholls 1996BoM climateSILO griddedBoM gridded

Sources:

u Torok, S.J. and Nicholls, N. (1996). A historical annual temperature dataset for Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag. 45, 251-260




Australian climate over 100 y: rainfallSources:

u Lavery, B., Joung, G. and Nicholls, N. (1997). An extended high-quality historical rainfall dataset for Australia. Aust. Meteorol. Mag 46, 27-38




Australian annual rainfall

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1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

rain

fall

(mm

/y)

Lavery et al 1997BoM climateSILO griddedBoM gridded

Australian vegetation greenness 1981-2003

u AVHRR-NDVI anomaly

u This version (Oct 2003) uses EOC "B-PAL" archive of AVHRR data

u 5 km, 8-11 day composites

u Peter Briggs, Edward King,Jenny Lovell, Susan Campbell, Michael Raupach, Michael Schmidt, Dean Graetz, Tim McVicar

Future climate change

u IPCC Third Assessment (2001)

ï Global warming of 1.4 to 5.8 C

ï Sea-level rise of 0.2 to 0.8 m

ï Mean global rainfall increasing but highly uncertain spatial distribution

ï Many other climate changes and impacts

u Other factors

ï Vulnerabilities in carbon-climate interactions: CO2 and methane releases from land and ocean pools will occur in response to warming

ï Global dimming: pollution aerosols are reducing sunlight and increasing cloud, alleviating some of the warming ñ this will decrease in the future as air quality is improved

ï Climate instabilities: thermohaline circulation, ice dynamics

ï Human responses: future emissions trajectories

Global warming

u IPCC (2001)

u Predicted warming of 1.4 to 5.8 C depends on

(1) uncertainties in climate models (around 1 C)

(2) uncertainties in emissions scenarios (around 2 C)

IPCC (2001) Third Assessment, Summary for PolicyMakers

Vulnerable carbon pools in the 21st centuryC emissions from land biomes

u x

1850-2

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1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Global Temperature2∞C

Fire and respiration feedbacksAbsentPresent

Cox et al. (2000)

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2001900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Atmospheric CO2

200 ppm

Global Land C

Greenhouse skepticism

u Four components of the Enhanced Greenhouse Hypothesis

A: Anthropogenic GHG emissions cause climate change

B: Climate responses to rising GHG concentrations are measurable now

C:Climate changes will increase in the future to dangerous levels

D:Therefore we must reduce global emissions of GHGs

u All these assertions are uncertain to some extent

u Greenhouse skeptics dispute any or all of these assertions

u An increasing body of evidence SUPPORTS assertions A, B, C

u Logic: B supports A and C but is not their only basisFalsifying B does not falsify A, C or D

u D is a policy and ethical decision following from C

Outline




Response strategies

Response strategies have at least three interacting dimensions:

u Mitigation and adaptation

u Technology and policy

u Centralised regulation and market forces

Mitigation ñ Adaptation

Tec

hn

olo

gy

ñP

olic

y

Regulation ñ

Markets

Kinds of mitigation strategy

1. Conservation

ï Consume less energy or product while maintaining quality of life

2. Efficiency

ï Increase efficiency and decrease waste in existing GHG-emitting technologies

3. Alternative energy sources (energy decarbonisation)

ï Replace fossil fuels with alternative, non-fossil energy sources (existing or new)

4. Sequestration

ï Geological disposal: recapture CO2 and store it underground

ï Ocean disposal: recapture CO2 and store it in deep oceans

ï Biological sequestration: Increase C storage in land or ocean biospheres

ï Avoid land clearing: important in developing nations

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Zero Net Emission Buildings

Nuclear Power Generation

Renewable Energy

Zero-Emission Power Plant

Bio-Fuels

Geosequestration Plant New Forests

Ocean Fertilization

Reduced deforestation

Sequestration in Ag. soils

Reduced methane production

There are many specific technical options

Carbon emissions 1990-2100: the mitigation challenge

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2100

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0

550 ppmv stabilization scenario

Energy Gap

Current [CO2] = 379 ppm

ï 75% power generationcarbon-free

ï bio-fuels production biggerthan 1990 combined oil and gas production

IS92a (1990 technology)

> 1,500 ppm

IS92a – business as usual

700 ppm

Car

bo

n E

mis

sio

ns

(bil

lion

s o

f to

ne

s p

er y

ear)

Edmonds et al. 2004

Kyoto Protocol

u Now in force

u Australia not a signatory but will meet its target: (8% GHG increase 1990-2012)

u Australia presently claims a 1.3% increase in GHG emissions 1990-2002

Australian Greenhouse Gas Inventory

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Energy Industrialprocesses

Agriculture LUCF(UNFCCC)

Waste TOTAL

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O2E

q p

er y

ear

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2002

Energy:+29%

Land clearing:

-81%

Outline



u Ethical dimensionsï Interconnections ñ dependence on the global commons

ï Responsibility for the future ñ intergenerational equity

ï Sharing the load ñ global and local equity

u Climate change is a planetary issue

ï Involves atmosphere, oceans, biota, human populations = whole earth system

ï Requires effective governance of the global commons

u Can we do it?

ï Cooperative behaviour in nature and human societies emerges by evolution, through selection of successful strategies over many generations

ï We have just two generations (at most) to fix this problem!

ï The cures involve technology, institutions and ethics (human wisdom)

ï We have to do this together ñ all economies are wholly owned subsidiaries of a single environment

Interconnections ñthe global commons Carbon cycle

Climate

Human activitiesBiophysical feedbacks

Forcing

Impacts

Response

Responsibility for the future ñ intergenerational equity

u Present plenty, future distress

ï The current adult generation will not be greatly influenced by climate change

ï The problem will be acute for our grandchildren and their grandchildren

u Climate inertia and vulnerability

ï We are now actively managing a climate system that has

ï Inertia: there is already committed climate change (another 0.5 C)

ï Vulnerability: climate change will imbalance biophysical GHG cycles

u Precautionary principle and risk management

ï It will be too late to stop significant climate change if action is delayed until all uncertainties are resolved

ï We must take action in the presence of uncertainty (a common requirement!)

2000 2100 2200 2300

Inertia in the coupled carbon-climate-human systemC

O2

Em

issi

on

s (P

gC

yr-1

)

650

CO

2C

on

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

)

650

Glo

bal tem

peratu

re chan

ge

650

IPCC Third Assessment (2001)

Committed climate change

u Even if GHG concentrations had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by 2100.

u At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed

Meehl et al. (2005) Science

Sharing the load ñ global and local equity

u Industrialised nations:

ï Have reaped benefit from past GHG emissions

ï Are responsible for nearly 80% of current anthropogenic GHG emissions, and over 90% of cumulative industrial emissions since 1850

ï Their per capita emissions far exceed those of developing nations

u Developing and less developed nations:

ï Require energy for poverty alleviation and long-term economic growth

ï May lack financial, technical, institutional capacity to mitigate or adapt

ï Are most vulnerable to climate impacts on food and water supplies

Top 20 fossil-fuel CO2 emitting nations in year 2000

http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends

USA

Australia

SaudiArabia

Global average

Canada

Equity and vulnerability

u FOOD

u Food supplies in developing nations are vulnerable to climate change

u Developed nations are not so badly affected

Summary


ï Greenhouse gases in the earth system

ï Present climate change

ï Future climate change

ï Greenhouse skepticism


ï Mitigation and adaptation

ï Technology and policy

ï Centralised regulation and market forces


ï Sharing the load ñ global and local equity

ï Responsibility for the future ñ intergenerational equity

ï Interconnectedness ñ dependence on the global commons

Hilary Talbot

Thank You

Atmospheric CO2: last 1000 years

Atmospheric CO2 record

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1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

[CO

2] (

pp

mv)

LawDome Ice: 75yrSmooth

LawDome Ice: 20yrSmooth

Siple Ice

MaunaLoa Atmospheric Baseline

Examining skeptic arguments: A

Hypothesis Skeptic argument Rebuttal

Water vapour positive feedback is wrong

Water vapour positive feedback is now secure

A: Anthropogenic GHG emissions cause climate change Cloud feedback will fix the problem Cloud feedback is uncertain but would

have to be large and negative to fix the problem

Examining skeptic arguments: B


Urbanisation (heat islands) influence the instrumental temperature record

Urbanisation effects have been carefully removed

Satellite temperature record shows no warming

Uncertain in IPCC (2001) but satellite and instrumental records now agree

Climate variability is natural ñ temperature is rising but that happens often in paleoclimate records (eg glacial cycles)

Glacial cycles have slow cooling and rapid warming phases, but GHG climate forcing involves different dynamics

Climate variability is natural ñ warming since 1850 is not exceptional relative to last 1000 y (Mann "hockey-stick")

Mann et al (1998, 1999) temperature record has been challenged but not falsified (Crowley 2005, EOS 86)

Current temperature trends are due to solar variations (especially UV)

(1) Solar variations explain at most half the temperature trend over last 150 y; (2) CO2 is still a greenhouse gas

B: Climate responses to rising GHG concentrations are measurable now

CO2 changes are observed to be an effect, not a cause, of glacial cycles

Partly true but irrelevant: present GHG climate forcing is different from glacial forcing

Examining skeptic arguments: C, D


Models are too complicated and too uncertain to be believed

Models can broadly reproduce climate trends 1800-2000

C: Climate changes will increase in the future to dangerous levels Models omit many key processes More processes are being included;

these introduce extra uncertainties in both directions

Adaptation will proceed as fast as climate change, so we'll never reach a "dangerous level"

Because adaptation rates are strongly dependent on technology base, poor countries will be hit hard


Mitigation is too expensive Mitigation is affordable and has benefits as well as costs

Impacts are not important Impacts will be very severe in vulnerable societies and sectors

D: Therefore we must reduce global emissions of GHGs

We can adapt to predicted changes Adaptation will be impossible in vulnerable societies and sectors

Ancillary effects: economic, environmental and socio-cultural impacts of mitigation strategies

IMPACTS MITIGATION STRATEGY Climate change and greenhouse

Economic Environmental Socio-cultural

Conservation and Efficiency More efficient appliances

More efficient indoor environments More efficient automotive transport

Better urban travel planning Urban microclimate design

Better use of fossil fuels Cogeneration

Changes to diets

(+++)

(++) and (-)

(+++) and (-)

(++) and (-)

Non-Fossil Fuel Energy Sources Hydro power (++) and (-) (+) and (-) (++) and (--) Developed: (-)

Developing: (---) Solar power (+++) (-) (+++) and (-) ? Wind power (++) (+) and (-) (+++) and (-) (+) and (-) Bioenergy (+++) and (--) (+) and (-) (+++) and (--) (+) and (--)

Geothermal power (+) ? (++) and (-) ? Nuclear energy (+++) (++) and (--) (++) and (---) (---)

Land Based Options Afforestation, reforestation

and land restoration (++) and (-) Incentives needed (++) and (-) (++) and (--)

Reduction of net deforestation (+++) Incentives needed (++) (++) and (--) Forest management and fire

suppression (+) and (-) (+) and (-) (++) and (-) ?

Changing agricultural management (++)

(++) and (-) (++) and (--) ?

Non-CO2 mitigation from land biosphere

(++) (++) and (-) (++) and (-) ?

Bioengineering solutions ? (++) and (--) (+) and (---) (--) Biological Sequestration in the Oceans

Ocean fertilization (++) and (--) ? (--) (---) CO2 Disposal on Land and Oceans

C separation with ocean storage (+++) and (--) ? (--) (---) C separation with geological

storage (+++) and (--) ? (--) (-)

Index of Human Insecurity

Source: Lonergan 2000

Equity and vulnerability

u WATER

u Water supplies in many nations are vulnerable to climate change

u Climate vulnerability compounds population vulnerability, especially in less developed nations

Vˆ rˆ smarty et al 2000, Science

ethical dimensions of climate change -...

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