estimating roi for large scale six sigma and test ... · pdf fileany similarity to any...
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Copyright © 2014 Raytheon Company. All rights reserved. Customer Success Is Our Mission is a registered trademark of Raytheon Company.
Estimating ROI forLarge Scale Six Sigma
and Test Automation Projects
C F Boncek Engineering Fellow
July 22 2014
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UNCLASSIFIED
THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEENREVIEWED AND APPROVED FOR
GENERAL AUDIENCES eTPCR IDS-5779
UThe case study described herein is for educationalpurposes and was developed solely to illustrate theprincipals described.
Any similarity to any existing project whether fielded orplanned is unintentional and purely coincidental.
The presentation contains graph material andmathematical language. Viewer discretion is advised.
Classification
7/23/2014 2
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Presentation Topics and Flow Motivation for the Project
Starting Point: The Basic Linear Model Definitions of Terms and Basic Equations
The Monte Carlo Model– The ‘Knobs’: Random Variables and Random Parameters– Sensitivity Analysis for Each Parameter Impact of Uncertainties and Randomness Impact of Variations in Project CPI and SPI
Example Case Study and Results– 10,000 Run Simulation of Scenario– Interpretation of Results
The Success Triad: Test Automation Considerations
Talk Outline: From Motivation to a Predicted ROI 7/23/2014 3
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Project Motivation: Hardware Age RisksUsing “Bath-Tub” Failure Model
Part Obsolescence Growing % of Baseline $; Impacts SW too !
Radar Hardware Cooling 39 yearsRadar Antenna-Pattern Hardware 38 yearsSignal Routing Hardware 38 yearsDigital Control Drawer A10 38 yearsDoppler Extension Hardware 35 years
Failure of any of these will stop production
Raytheon Principles of Systems Engineering PoSEModule 8: Specialty Engineering (SEPOSE108-110930)Copyright 2011, Raytheon Company. All rights reserved.
Risk of Stopping Production D
ue To Equipment Failure
High
Low
7/23/2014 4
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Conceptual Framework: Linear Model part I
The Basic ROI Prediction Equations Before Modeling Uncertainties7/23/2014 5
Slope = Baseline Spend Rate
Baseline Spend Rate xPost Project Efficiency Equal Dollar
PointProject DurationTp
Time to Break Even = T ROI
Investment $
Amortization
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Monte Carlo Analysis Case Study Parameters
Input Data for Monte Carlo Input Parameters7/23/2014 6
$ 3.0 M Facility’s Baseline
$ 8.5 M Project Investment: Hardware, Non-Baseline SW Dev & Support
4.4 Year Project Duration1 = 52.5 months
3% Yearly Inflation Model Applied to Baseline Budget2
30% Schedule Parallelism Improvement1
0.85 < CPI < 1.15 Required Performance Entire Project0.85 < SPI < 1.15
$ 23.3 M Expenditure at Complete: Baseline Rate plus Investment Dollars
1 includes 30% Schedule Reduction by Parallel Activity, Early IV&V2 inflation could be set to zero to model flat budgets
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Definition of I$ Investment Dollars Investment includes all HW, SW, Other Labor and Capital
not covered in the Baseline Budget or by the Core Team
Estimates for Investment Are Based on C5,EPIC and Other Approved Tools Such as COCOMO2 and CRA2 etc.– Requirements Development – HW Development1
– SW Development1
– Integration1
– Verification1
– Validation1
In this example the Investment is: $8.51M HW, SW and IV&V7/23/2014 7
1 portion not done under Baseline funding of $3.0 M / year2 COnstructive COst MOdel & Cost Risk Analysis Tools
PROJECT BUDGET Requirements Dev Budget dollarsHW Dev Budget dollarsSW Dev Budget dollarsIVV Budget dollarsCapital dollarsTotal Project Components
Non Team $ 15000
3781000 4588500 125000
99 8509599
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Conceptual Framework: Linear Model part II
The Basic ROI Prediction Equations Before Modeling Uncertainties7/23/2014 8
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The Basic ROI Equation and Sensitivities
Sensitivities of the Basic Equation to the Four Parameters7/23/2014 9
Basic Equation
Sensitivity to Project Duration Sensitivity to Post Project Efficiency
Sensitivity to Investment $Sensitivity to Baseline Rate
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Commit Early, Start-on-Time, Finish Early for the Biggest ROI 7/23/2014 10
New EquipmentEnd of Life
End ofProgram
Sensitivity of TROI to Project Duration Tp
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Sensitivity to TROI to Predicted Post Project Efficiency ϵ
Impact of Post Project Efficiency on Investments of Various Sizes7/23/2014 11
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This Section Summarizes The Approach to Predicting 𝜖𝑝𝑝7/23/2014 12
Estimating Final Efficiency 𝜖𝑝𝑝
OK, Now we have the equations but how can
we scientifically estimate the final expected
efficiency to convince the boss ?
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| Ao Standard Day | 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6
Notional Time Block Categories and Metrics
DIAG & CAL 2.8
9/80 day 45 minutelunch adjusted
7/23/2014 13
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‘Real Time’ Machining CategoriesExample40% ofTheoreticalMaximum of45 80s runs/hour
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Oregon ProductivityMachining Rate for 2 Activities: IV&V vs. Production
Tactical SW Integration SessionWFG Cable at Radar 2 not connected3 CPU Rack CrashesTactical SW issuesScenario Integration and Calibration
7/23/2014 15
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Correlating Machining Rate & Mission Time
Manual Operations and Other Human-Factors = Opportunity !7/23/2014 16
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Real Time Analysis Tools Monitor Scenario Run-by-Run 7/23/2014 17
Next: Inventory of Real-Time Analysis Enablers
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Identifies Anomalies and Historic Trends in SUT and Facility 7/23/2014 18
Parametric Variations, Scenario and Trend Analysis
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DETECTION SUB-SYSTEM +
-
SUT RESPONSE
Σ
SystemResponse Vector
ThresholdCriteria
[ ][ ] [ ]
DifferenceVector akaError Vector
[ ][ ]Input Vector
Adjustment Vector akaTunables,Corrections,Parametric Variation
ANALYSIS ENGINE Maps differences to an set of Implications
[ ]
ACTIONENGINE Maps implications to an set of possible responses
[ ]FEASIBILITY ENGINEDetermines feasibility of responses. Determines rank order. Determines if automated response is possible or if human intervention is required.
Is Auto response
possible ?
[ ] Stop Light ChartAlerts OperationsTeam
EquipmentHeartbeatVector
[ ]Type InsScriptsScene FilesConfig Files…Calib FilesTunables
Pass/Fail MetricsSystem LimitsTest Restrictions
D/L out of CalHW not online…Amplifier Off
Rerun BITE or CALReadjust GainsReadjust Delays…Turn On Amplifier
Auto ResponseNot Possible
Light TC Stop Display
Auto Responses PossibleContinue ScenarioSW Loads News ScenarioSW Loads New DatabaseMoves Truth FilesInvokes Data Reductions
…continue until
mission or CTP complete
Map response vector
to actions. Provide rank order action.
Paradigm for Automated Test and Real-Time Analysis
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Notional Yearly Expenditures for Case Study Based on Person Hours7/23/2014 20
Case Study Baseline for Rb
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Project Impact on the Case Study Baseline: a 34% Opportunity7/23/2014 21
Estimated Final Average Expected Efficiency 𝜖𝑝𝑝
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Monte Carlo Simulation and Parameters
Monte Carlo Inputs a.k.a ‘Control Knobs’ and Outputs7/23/2014 22
Cost Variations CPI ModelSchedule Historic SPI Metrics Post Project Efficiency ModelInflation and ‘Go Do’ ModelSchedule Parallelism Factor
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Probability Curves for TROI vs. Month for Several Efficiencies 7/23/2014 23
Monte Carlo Analysis 10000 Runs part II
3:1 2:15:110:1
.67.50.33.20.10
3/2:1Improvement Ratios
ϵpp
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Monte Carlo ROI with Predicted Opportunity for Case Study7/23/2014 24
Case Study Monte Carlo ROI Summary
ROI OPPORTUNITY CATEGORIESNew Business, Additional Programs, Increased Capacity
Additional Testing: Increased Probability of Finding Defects
Job Shadowing and Cross Training Reduce Impact of Retiring SMEs and Aging Workforce Develops Bench Strength and Strengths Programs
Final Post Project Efficiency
Final Post Project Improvement
Break Even Year 90% Confidence
Break Even Quarter 90% Confidence
ROI Rate in $M/ year
Year For Five Year Opportunity $M
Total FiveYear Opportunity $M
0.667 1.50 2028 2nd 1.13 2033 5.60.500 2.00 2025 4th 1.69 2030 8.40.333 3.00 2023 3rd 2.25 2028 11.30.200 5.00 2023 4th 2.70 2028 13.50.100 10.00 2022 3rd 3.04 2027 15.2
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1• Hardware Modernization and Upgrades Lead To
• Reduced Maintenance and Obsolescence Costs
2
• Enable Automated Testing & Analysis Solutions• Yield More Scenarios, Higher Machining Rate • Create Time for Cross Training
(Knowledge Loss is an Industry & Program Risk )
3
• Non-Tangible ROI • Increased Probability of Finding Latent Defects• Reduced Probability of Need for Failure Analysis Studies • Reduced Risks at All Levels: Program, DVT, Mission• Increased Customer Satisfaction
NoDoubt Performance ®More Efficient Testing and Reduced Risk
7/23/2014 25
Synergy of Elements: More Capability per Dollar
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1• Estimate Shortest Possible Time to ROI by Dividing
Maximum1 Project Investment by Rb: Calculate I$/Rb• This is a Go / No Go Check.
2• Measure current Intra-Set efficiency (time between runs of the same type)
• Slides 13, 14,15 and 16 provide some items for consideration.• Estimate post project intra-set efficiency .
3
• Measure current Inter-Set efficiency (time between different scenarios )
• Slides 13, 16 provide some items for consideration• Estimate post project inter-Set efficiency
General Principles & Rules-of-Thumb… Continued on Next Slide
7/23/2014 26
General Principles and Rules-of-Thumb I
1 Maximum the Sponsor is willing to invest in the project.
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4• Estimate Readiness For Automated Test Solutions• Refine Investment I$ (HW, SW, IVV, Capital) See Slide 6, 28
5• Refine Final Average Post Project Efficiency See Slides 19, 20
• Final Average Efficiency is based on weighted efficiencies for each category against the baseline, prorated if TROI approaches new equipment lifetime.
6
• Compute Estimated TROI and Opportunity Rate See Slide 5
• Using the equation on slides 8, 9 and 5 or• Based on a Monte Carlo Simulation which uses the equations
on 5, 8,9 See Slide 23, 24
Estimated Time to ROI and ROI Opportunity; Refine Models (see slide 28 ) and Repeat Steps 2 to 6 as Needed
7/23/2014 27
General Principles and Rules-of-Thumb II
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- Assessing Readiness for Test Automation SolutionsDefining Metrics for Test Automation Readiness and Adaptability
Connectivity: Network, Client-Server Architecture, Fiber, DDS,…Key Performance MetricsSurvey of Real-time Analysis CapabilitiesSuccess Rate for Automated Analysis Tools
- Modeling Final Average Baseline RateDeveloping a More Sophisticated Future Business Model
Probability Based Similar to ELF Categories (Pwin > 50%, etc)
- Characterizing Non-Tangible ROI
7/23/2014 28
Areas for Further Study
Increasing Model Fidelity & Understanding of Contributing Factors
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A method for estimating ROI has been presented.
The start of ROI (post amortization) is sensitive to the prediction (or estimate) of the final post-project efficiency.
Our methods for estimating the post project efficiency were described.
After reducing non-value-added-waste and minimizing required-but-non-value-add processes we address the question of production efficiency or “machining rate”.
For a real-time environment there is a theoretical upper bound to the productivity (machining rate).
Presentation Summary and Conclusions 7/23/2014 29
Summary and Conclusion (part I of II )
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The current performance was measured against this upper bound to determine the potential for improvement.
The ROI predictions from a Monte Carlo simulation of notional case study inputs were summarized to demonstrate how the principles and concepts will be applied to our project.
Automated analysis and data reduction is required for the success of test automation projects to prevent information overload on the analysis team and creating a data reduction bottleneck.
Presentation Summary and Conclusions 7/23/2014 30
Summary and Conclusion (part II of II )
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References
7/23/2014 31
Glisson T.H. , Introduction to Systems Analysis, McGraw Hill Book Company, New York, 1985, pages 19-22
Raytheon Software Council, SWIFT Proposal Handbook,December 23, 2013, Document Number: SW-EN-015, Revision: A
Raytheon IDS SVTAD SysEPG, SVTAD White Sheet Review, 2014, slides 41-42,
Raytheon Process Asset Library (Internal Asset), Computing_Return_on_Investment_ROI_on_Proposed_Process_Improvements_Guideline
http://ipdspal.app.ray.com/PALFiles/Integrated_Defense_Systems/00013586_001_Computing_Return_on_Investment_ROI_on_Proposed_Process_Improvements_Guideline.pdf
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Chester BoncekEngineering FellowSystems Integration Test FacilityRaytheon Company
+1 978.470.9076 (business)[email protected]
350 Lowell StreetAMMZ342KAndover, MA 01810 USAwww.raytheon.com
7/23/2014 32
Contact Information
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Thank You and Post Talk Questions & Discussion 7/23/2014 33
Thank You for your time.
Now for me…
Get Off the Stage Chart
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Additional Support Plots and Materials 7/23/2014 34
Additional Information
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Monte Carlo Analysis 10000 Runs part I
Distributions Used for Cost and Schedule Variance FollowStandard IDS Methodology 7/23/2014 35
Reference [2] SVTAD White Sheet Template
Cost Draws μ = 23.3 M σ = 5%0.85 < CPI < 1.15
Schedule Draws μ = 52.5 M σ = 5%0.85< SPI < 1.15
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Sensitivity Analysis Defined
Now Let’s Calculate the Sensitivity for the Four Terms in the ROI Equation7/23/2014 36
Reference [1]: Glisson T.H., Introduction to Systems Analysis, McGraw Hill Book Company, New York, 1985, pages 33-35
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Amortization: to pay a debt over a period of time usually in regular installments
Depreciation: allocate the cost of tangible assets over the useful life. Businesses depreciate long-term assets for both tax and accounting purposes
Financial Terminology Used in the Project 7/23/2014 37
Definitions
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Abstract Approval Notice 16805
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Session Information 07-22-2014 04:15 PM
NATIONAL BALLROOM BSESSION H: T&E in aFinancially ConstrainedEnvironment
Session Chair:Dr. Mark Kiemel, President, Air Academy Associates