estimated cancers/year due to peanut and peanut …...estimated cancers/year due to peanut and...
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Estimated cancers/year due to peanut and peanut sauce consumption*
HBsAg prevalence in Indonesia 10% (3.4-20.3%)It assumes that 10% of the population carries the hepatitis B virus.
Potency: 0.01 x 90% + 0.3 x 10% = 0.039 cancers per year/100 000 people per ng aflatoxin B1/kg body weight per day
3.2 ng/kg bw per day x 0.039 cancers/year per 100,000 populationper ng aflatoxin/kg bw per day = 0.1248 cancers/year per 100,000people.
Estimated cancers/year in Indonesia222.192.000 people/100.000 people x 0.1248 = 227 persons
Lower estimate?
* Peanut sauce: pecel/gado-gado/ketoprak, food consumption data 2007; average body weight 60kg; 50 g peanuts per portion
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Peanuts and peanut-based products?
• Peanuts• Pecel• Gado-gado• Karedok• Ketoprak• Sate (chicken)• Sate (lamb/goat)• Batagor• Siomay• Peanut butter• Others: gula kacang, enting-enting
gepuk, enting-enting kacang, rempeyek kacang, tahu telor, otak-otak, nasi uduk, etc.
• Check the indonesian food recipes
• Peanuts• Pecel• Gado-gado• Karedok• Ketoprak• Sate (chicken)• Sate (lamb/goat)• Batagor• Siomay• Peanut butter• Others: gula kacang, enting-enting
gepuk, enting-enting kacang, rempeyek kacang, tahu telor, otak-otak, nasi uduk, etc.
• Check the indonesian food recipes
How big the portion?How much the consumption? How often?Who is the consumer?What is the level of aflatoxin?
Food recipe database
More than I thought
How about other products that might contain aflatoxin?
• Corn• Rice• Wheat• Oilseeds• Spices• Tree nuts (e.g. coconut)• Milk• Dried products• Etc
• Corn• Rice• Wheat• Oilseeds• Spices• Tree nuts (e.g. coconut)• Milk• Dried products• Etc
How big the portion?How much the consumption? How often?Who is the consumer?What is the level of aflatoxin?
I have other foods that might contain aflatoxin
We should include them
beside peanut products
Uncertainty in the estimates of cancer risk due to aflatoxin
• Dietary intake data? We should include other peanut based products
• Use of average body weight. At present study we use 60 kg. It might be lower than this weight
• Other foods that might contain low aflatoxin, but give more exposure due to high intake of the foods?
• Range of aflatoxin level in suspected foods?• Prevalence of Hepatitis B in Indonesia? Many
versions
Aflatoxin control should include all stakeholders
B1
M1
Aflatoxin M1, the hydroxylated metabolite ofB1, has a potency approximately one order of magnitude less than that of B1.
On farmOn farm
Pre-harvestPre-harvest
HarvestHarvest
Post harvestPost harvest
ConsumptionConsumption
• Think about consequence, exposure and probability
• Aflatoxin control should be food chain approach
• Considering risk factors for aflatoxin production (e.g. temperature, moisture, humidity) for management strategies throughout the food chain.
• Standard setting should be achievable• Think a priority • Need awareness raising
to build a commitment• Strengthening a partnership
AFLATOXIN CONTROL: Risk based approach
REGULATION
Regulation should be food chain approach and not fragmented
On farmOn farm
Pre-harvestPre-harvest
HarvestHarvest
Post harvestPost harvest
ConsumptionConsumptionFood safety objective?Performace objective throughout food chain?PC, PrC, MC?
Primary Production
Primary Production
ManufacturesManufactures
TransportTransport
RetailRetail
CookingCooking
ConsumptionConsumption
Performance criteria
Control measures
Performance objective?
Performance objective?
Food safety objective
ExposurePublic health burden?
MPL for aflatoxin at consumption level in
Indonesia30 (µ/kg (Total)
20 (µ/kg (B1)
Can we achieve the standard (FSO)?
StorageStorage
Consumption of aflatoxin containing food
Codex ML Aflatoxin exposure
Estimated cancer level
Epidemiological data: Prevalence of Hepatitis B
National ML Aflatoxin exposure
Estimated cancer level
Assess your standard and food control for the estimated cancer level*
Monitored level Aflatoxin exposure
Estimated cancer level
*A need for a sound scientific assessment of the impact of aflatoxin levels in foods on human health
Intervention and management option should be based on the risk assessment
throughout the food chain*
Ho – Ʃ R + Ʃ I ≤ Po or FSO
Hazard level at initial step
Reduction when applicable
Increase (growth and
toxin production)
Level at step in the food chain
Level at consumption level
On farmOn farm
Pre-harvestPre-harvest
HarvestHarvest
Post harvestPost harvest
ConsumptionConsumption
*Adapted from ICMSF (2002)