Rik LeemansEnvironmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen UniversityChair ESSP science committee

Website: www.essp.org

Rik LeemansEnvironmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen UniversityChair ESSP science committee

Website: www.essp.org

ESSP: developing an integrated Earth system

science approach

ESSP: developing an integrated Earth system

science approach

Global change is also local change!

o We lived between fields, orchards and forests and worked in the garden and with animals.

o Now 50 years later this area is part of the town: build-up area!

The ESSP programmes provide policy relevant information in all

stages of understanding and dealing with environmental problems.

Amsterdam Declaration (2001)The Declaration points out that “a new system of global environmental science is required that will:o integrate across disciplines, environment and

development issues and the natural and social sciences;

o collaborate across national boundaries on the basis of a shared and secure infrastructure;

o intensify efforts to enable the full involvement of developing country scientists; and

o employ the complementary strengths of nations and regions to build an efficient international system of global environmental science”.

In 2008, the ESSP Review Panel noted that the Amsterdam Declaration(2001) is more valid today than seven years ago.

What is Earth System Science?

ESS is the study of the Earth System with an emphasis on observing, understanding and predicting global environmental changes involving interactions between land, atmosphere, water, ice, biosphere, societies, technologies and economies.

To understand the physical-biogeochemical-ecological-human systems as complex, dynamic and evolving entities, both natural, technological, social, and economic sciences are needed in a interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary way.

The IGBP structure

ESSP facilitates the study of the Earth’s environment as an integrated system in order to understand how and why it is changing, and to explore the implications of these changes for global and regional sustainability.

Earth System Science Partnership

(ESSP)

Earth System Science Partnership:Joint science and capacity building

Structuresince 2002

Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training

The objective of START’s research-driven capacity building activities is to engage the scientific communities of developing regions in international collaborative scientific research and policy discussions related to global change.

Through a framework of regional research centers, research nodes, science committees and secretariats, START:o Conducts research on regional aspects of global changeo Provides fellowship and education opportunitieso Shares knowledge, expertise and data

o Bridges between science & society to support decision making

o Mobilizes financial, institutional and human resources.

ESSP Contribution to policy relevant scientific assessments

Almost half of the contributors to IPCC AR4 are WCRP/IGBP/IHDP/DIVERSITAS associated scientists

Contributors include climatologists, meteorologists, atmospheric chemists, paleoecologists, ecologists, hydrologists, geographers, epidemiologists, economist and political scientists

Also a strong contributions to the Ozone Assessment, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Agricultural Assessment

“WCRP serves an irreplaceable role for

coordination within the science community, which in

turn is invaluable to the IPCC”

Dr. Susan Solomon, IPCC Working Group I Co-Chair

IHDP has internalized the joint projects in its strategic plan

Cros

s cu

ttin

g th

emes

MethodologiesWith IGBP

ESSP joint projects

An example of integrated research:Global Carbon Project (GCP)

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) was established in 2001 in recognition of the enormous scientific challenge and fundamentally critical nature of the carbon cycle for sustainability science.

The scientific goal of the project is to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them.

www.globalcarbonproject.org

Timeline for the new Climate scenariosRepresentative Concentration Pathways

(RCPs)

Linking to users: BioDISCOVERY

Earth System Science Partnership:Developing integrative science collaboration

Structuresince 2007

Applied Earth System Science and ESSP Rapid BIOFUELS assessment

(with SCOPE)What are the policy issues?

What are the earth system linkages, land use needs, systemic feedbacks and uncertainties?

What are plausible scenarios?What are the key vulnerabilities?

A new GEC Journal: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

o Focuses on review and synthesis paperso Possibilities to publish science planso Themes: Terrestrials systems; Aquatic systems;

Climate systems; Energy systems; Carbon and Nitrogen cycles; Human systems

o Will make outreach and educational material available

Earth System Science Partnership:Towards transdisciplinary integrative science

Structuresince 2009

Now, it’s more connected with collaboration with CGIAR

We also effectively connect with researchers from other organizations. For example, the International Agricultural Research Institutes (CGIAR) and ESSP will together implement a 10-years, M$250 challenge programme on Climate Change and Agriculture with integrated scenarios to assess food systems and food security

To achieve sustainable food security and reduce poverty in developing countries through scientific

research and research-related activities in the fields of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, policy, and environment.

Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research(CGIAR; >65 countries, foundations & organizations that fund research in 15 centers)

Climate Variability and Change

CCCP Research Framework and Science ThemesCCCP Research Framework and Science Themes

ImprovedEnvironmental

Benefits

ImprovedLivelihoods

ImprovedFood Security

Current agricultural& food systems

Adapted agricultural& food systems

ADAPTATION PATHWAYS

4 Managing climate risk

5 Progressive climate change

6 Adaptation through mitigation

Trade-offs

1 Diagnosis, context and tradeoffanalysis

3 Researcher/stakeholder interactions

2 Role of macro-level policies

AN

ALY

TIC

AL

&D

IAG

NO

STIC

FRAM

EWO

RK

Lecture for UNFCCC-SBSTAJune 3 2010

SBSTA Dialogue on developments in research activities relevant to the needs of the Climate Convention.View on: http://unfccc2.meta-fusion.com/ kongresse/SB32/templ/play.php?id_kongresssession=2731&theme=unfccc

This lecture (with one by IPCC) helped tore-create thrust in climate research and highlighted the urgency of the climate problem.

The IPCC error on Himalayan does not alter conclusions

Chapter 10 Asia: Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world (see Table 10.9) and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 km2 by the year 2035 (WWF, 2005).

Technical Summary: Increases in temperature are expected to result in more rapid recession of Himalayan glaciers and the continuation of permafrost thaw across northern Asia (medium confidence).

SPM: Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilized slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades.

Increasing glacier lakes in the Himalaya

Adaptation is needed in regions that do not strongly

contribute to GHG emissions

Nayar, A. (2009). Climate: When the ice melts. Nature 461, 1042-1046

Warmest years:

2005, 1998, 2009 and 2007

Observed changes in temperature

Lyman, et al., 2010. Robust warming of the global upper ocean. Nature 465, 334-337.

The IGBP climate change index

Extinctions of species

Climate Change ≈0.9°C

Current Potential Vegetation

Climate Change ≈0.9°C +20% Deforest + Fire

Climate Change ≈3.2°C +50% Deforest + Fire

Climate Change ≈1.6°C

A World Bank Report 2010

2025 2075

Tropical Forest Savanna

Shrublands

Current Trends

StrongAction

Tropical Forest

Lost

Fate of Tropical

ForestUncertain

Tropical Forestto Savanna

Tropical Forestto Shrub

Analyses using theCPTEC-PVM2.0 model

Climate, land use and fire influence forests

Application of REDD+ initiatives could lead to a win-win situation for biodiversity and climate if appropriately implemented. A program of significant forest restoration would be a prudent measure to build in a margin of safety.

Rising sea surface temperatures and CO2concentrations are projected to damage

tropical coral reefs

Biologically realistic rates of adaptation may allow coral reefs to adapt to thermal stress, but only under scenarios of strong climate mitigation (Donner. 2009. PLoS ONE)

Fra

ctio

n o

f co

ral

reefs

w

ith

recu

rren

t se

vere

b

leach

ing

Impact with 1.5°C thermaladaptation of corals

Impact with no thermal adaptation

Before bleaching

After bleaching

[CO2]atm ≈ 700 ppm in 2100

[CO2]atm ≈ 550 ppm in 2100

Health and socio-economic impacts

o Climate change may increase rural population at Malaria risk by 36 to 89% by 2050

o Economic costs of additional Malaria burden $45 to $99 million per year but these costs may rise to $185 million per year

Proportion loss of labour productivity in 2080s under A2.The largest negative effect will occur in Latin America and South East Asia

Planetary Boundaries:Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the

Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 -

2009)

Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley

1.Earth System and sustainability science(Understanding Earth System processes; ICSU, IGBP, ESSP, IPCC, MEA, sustainability science…)

2.Scale of human action in relation to the capacity of the planet to sustain it(Spaceship Earth, Herman Daly, Club of Rome, Ecological Economics, Ecological Footprint...)

3.Shocks and Abrupt change in Social-Ecological systems from local to global scales(Resilience, GAIA, tipping elements, guardrails...)

Planetary Boundary concept rests on three different scientific inquiries

Planetary Boundaries

concept

Two different types ofplanetary boundary processes

2. No known global threshold effect1. Critical continental to global threshold

Literature review and expert judgement of boundaries

Climate change, nitrogen and biodiversity have already crossed their

boundaries

Recent trends in CO2 emissionsG

lobal Carb

on P

roje

ct 2

009;

LeQ

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al. 2

009,

Natu

re-g

eosc

ience

; D

ata:

Pet

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& H

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ich

2009;

Pet

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008;

Web

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2008;

Guan

et a

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008;

CD

IAC 2

009

Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated

MtCWarm colors Net exporters of embodied carbonCold colors Net importers of embodied carbon

Year 2004

Balance of emissions embodied in trade

Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Annex B

Industrial Nations

Emerging economies Non-Annex B

1990 2000 2010

5

4

3

2

55%

45%

1990 2000 2010

5

25% of growth

Annex B Industrial Nations

Emerging economies Non-Annex B

4

3

2

Transport of embodied emissions

domestic production domestic consumption

Natural CO2 Sinks

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

The decline in sinks causes a likely increase in the airborne fraction of 5% over the last 50 years.

Partitioning of CO2emissions

CO2emissions

Atmospheric CO2growth

(i.e. the airborne fraction)

Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature geoscience

CO

2Par

titionin

g

(PgC y

-1)

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

10

8

6

4

2

Required emission reduction to stabilise at 450 ppm

International Energy Agency, 2009 World Energy Outlook

Different peak emissions to reach 450 ppm

Rogelj, J., B. Hare, J. Nabel, K. Macey, M. Schaeffer, K. Markmann, and M. Meinshausen. 2009. Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2oC. Nature Reports Climate Change Doi: 10.1038/climate.2009.57.

Conclusions (UNFCCC talk)

o A limitation in temperature increase of 2oC as indicated in the Copenhagen Accords allows for adaptation and limits dangerous impacts, but there are large regional differences with respect to sensitivity, impacts and adaptive capacity. Climate protection, however, is not guaranteed.

o Strong links between climate change and other environmental change issues, such as biodiversity. Synergies between climate and biodiversity policies may be explored

o The observed increases in emissions and the reduction of land and ocean sinks accelerate climate change, rather than limiting it.

o ESSP and partners can help to monitor, assess and understand progress towards desired targets

Martin Rice & Ada IgnaciukESSP Coordinators

Email: mrice@essp.orgWebsite: www.essp.org

Martin Rice & Ada IgnaciukESSP Coordinators

Email: mrice@essp.orgWebsite: www.essp.org

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