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socialsciences

management

engineering

EngineeringSystems


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ENER

GYAND

SUSTAIN

ABILITY

CRITICAL

INFR

ASTRUCTU

RES

EXTE

NDED

ENTE

RPR

ISES

HEA

LTH

CARE

DEL

IVER

Y

SD ESEARCH DOMAINS


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EngineeringSystems Division

02 Challenges12 Research

24 Education

32 Global Reach

38 ESD 2020

Imagine theEXCITEMENT

of working at the frontiers

ofMACROSCOPICENGINEERING

the domain of larger and

larger and more and

more COMPLEX SYSTEMS forENERGY, the ENVIRONMENT,

communications, HEALTH

CARE, MANUFACTURING, andLOGISTICS.

Charles Vest, President,National Academy of Engineering

P. 6

P. 3

PP. 6, 13

PP. 10, 18 PP. 10, 17, 19, 24, 37

PP. 11, 23

PP. 9, 27, 30

PP. 9, 21, 31, 34


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What MIT is good for: a doseof reality-based hope that wecan help address in a real waythe most serious of the worldsgreat challenges.

Susan Hockfield, President,Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MITENGIN

EERING

SYSTEMSDIVISION

CHALLENGES

02::

03


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Highways, electrification, computers, fiber optics,the Internet, and health technologies are listed bythe National Academy of Engineering as among thegreatest achievements of the 20th century. Engineeringadvances produce better medicines, provide heat andair conditioning, enhance food production, supply abounty of affordable products on store shelves, andspeed emergency communicationsimproving the livesof billions of people throughout the world.

These benefits, however, were

not delivered by the technological

achievements alone, but rather by

complex, intertwined engineering

systemssystems that integratetechnology, people, and services.

Many of the new challenges involving these big,messy systems stem from the interactions of people,organizations, and technologyleading to emergentproperties over time. Strains of growth materialize atthe nexus of changing social norms, shifting regulations,and new enterprise architectures. Breakdowns makethe headlines, pointing to the enormity of the analytical,

management, and design challenges: Blackouts CauseNorth America Chaos (BBC, 2003); As More Toys AreRecalled, Trail Ends in China (The New York Times,2007); Nine Thought Dead as Minneapolis BridgeCollapses (MSNBC, 2007), Report Finds a Heavy Tollfrom Medication Errors (The New York Times, 2006).

Tackling engineering systems challenges requires an

engineering problem-solving mind-set, as well as new

framing and modeling methodologieswhat we call

engineering systems approaches. These approachescombine perspectives from engineering, management,

and social sciences to explore the fundamental

structures underlying engineering systems and

to frame and model problems so that they can be

rigorously addressed.

The simplicity of the single

windmill in Zaragoza, Spain,

belies the complexity of

achieving energy securityone

of the four problem domains

addressed by ESD researchers.

Image courtesy of Acciona


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04::0

5

MITEngIn

EErIng

SySTEMSDIvISIon

challengesVisi

on,mission,Values


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ESD VisionThe fundamental principles and properties of

engineering systemsthe complex socio-technical

constructs that are the foundation of modern

societyare well-understood, so that these systems

can be modeled, designed, and managed effectively.

ESD MissionTo solve previously intractable engineering systems

problems by integrating approaches based on

engineering, management, and social sciences, usingnew framing and modeling methodologies.

To facilitate the benecial application of engineering

systems principles and properties by expanding the

set of problems addressed by engineers.

To position our graduates as tomorrows system

thinkers and leaders in tackling societys challenges.

ESD ValuesWe are committed to scholarship that addresses

signicant global problems by investigating the

many ways in which engineering systems behave and

interact with each other.

We develop and evaluate system-level solutions that

are sustainable in terms of social equity, economic

development, and environmental impact.

We value and accept intellectual risk. This means

tackling issues that appear, at least in part, to be non-

quantiable or vague.

We have deep respect for all the disciplines we bring

together and build upon, including engineering, social

sciences, and management.

The MIT Engineering Systems Division

works with faculty across the Institutein

engineering, management, and the social

sciencesto collaborate on research

that takes a holistic approach to tackling

complex problems.

Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz


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1Related to systems engineering, which is an important professionand practice, engineering systems is a field of scholarshipthat includes systems engineering as well as a broader set of

disciplines. Engineering systems has an added focus on social,environmental, technological, and political contexts.

2.1.

What is engineering systems?MITENGIN

EERING

SYSTEMSDIVISION

CHALLENGESWHATISENGINEERINGSYSTEMS?

06::07

A class ofsystemsEngineering systems are characterized by a

high degree of technical complexity, socialintricacy, and elaborate processes, aimed at

fulfilling important functions in society.

ESD focuses on the

following domains: Critical Infrastructuresincluding the electrical

grid from power generation to distribution to

consumers to pricing and regulation, as well

as transportation, information, defense and

communications systems, taking into account all

stakeholders.

Extended Enterprisesincluding the design,

manufacture, and distribution of products and

services; accounting for trade regulations,

customs, and relationships among suppliers,

manufacturers, retailers, and carriers; and

managing the global flows of goods, information,

money, and knowledge.

Energy and Sustainabilityincluding issues of

energy production, distribution, and consumption;

material resource availability and reuse; the

balance between the environment and economic

development; as well as the related energy and

environmental policies.

Health Care Deliveryencompassing the delivery

of vital services for prevention, diagnosis, and

treatment of diseases and maintaining quality of

life for all segments of the population.

An emerging fieldof research andeducationEngineering systems is an emerging field of

scholarship that seeks solutions to important,

multifaceted socio-technical problems.1

Applying approaches from engineering, the social

sciences, and management, engineering systems

scholarship explores multiple stakeholder

perspectives. Engineering systems research

develops and employs multiple methodologies,

and balances quantitative and qualitativearguments while maintaining scientific rigor.

ESD approaches include:

The Interface of Humans and Technology

examining the ways in which human attitudes

and behaviors affect the successful use of

technologies, as well as design methodologies that

explicitly account for the human interface.

Uncertainty and Dynamicsincluding modeling

the sources of uncertainty and dynamics of

complex systems as well as the effects of

uncertainty in each of our domain areas.

Design and Implementationapplying life-cycle

concepts to capture the value and cost flows over

time, as well as analyzing enterprise architecturesand developing change management processes

that are required for successful implementation.

Networks and Flowsrepresenting, analyzing,

and designing systems as interdependent multi-

layered networks with multiple types of flows.

Policy and Standardstaking into account the

role of government policy, industry standards, and

other factors, which traditionally have been taken

as external constraints, but instead are treated as

design variables by ESD researchers.


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recognizing the various

connections across

ESD, this graphic key

highlights the domainsand approaches relevant

to individual projects.

Energy

&

Sustainabi

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Extended

Enterprise

s

Health

Car

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Delivery

Humans &

Technology

Uncertainty &Dynamics

Design &Implementation

Networks& Flows

Policy &Standards

domains [ ]

approaches[

]

socials

ciences

management

engineering

Critical

Infrastructures


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Ciicl IsucusImproving the effectiveness of national infrastructures,such as those providing electric power, transport, and

communications, is an important challenge.

As the graph below demonstrates, US investment ininfrastructure has not kept up with increasing needs.In 2005, the American Society of Civil Engineersestimated that the United States would need to spend$1.6 trillion over a ve-year period to bring its existinginfrastructure up to an acceptable level of service.Furthermore, infrastructure comprises not onlyphysical objects such as roads and airports, but also

the complex systems that provide for security, defense,health, energy, communications, and the functioningof markets. Herein lies an important researchand education challengedeveloping models andunderstanding the behavior of this system of systemsto better provide the infrastructures society relies on.

But there is an even greater challenge. Over the next 50years, a billion more people will be demanding modernservices, mainly in the cities of the developing world. Theenvironmental loads and resource depletion resultingfrom developing infrastructures to meet these demands,along the 20th century model, are unsustainable.

ESD has made a commitment to advancing researchin critical infrastructures precisely because theseproblems are both important and challenging. The

facets that distinguishESD research in criticalinfrastructures include:cross-domain views;comparative architectureand the factors affectingthem; new models thatinclude both the technicaland social complexities; andnew, large-scale simulationtechniques which allow thecombination of quantitativeand qualitative data.

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critical

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MITEngInEErIng

SySTEMSDIvISIOn

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08::09

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Exeded EepsesTeams designing the new Boeing 787 Dreamliner spanthe globe, working around the clock and across multiple

time zones. An Intel chip crosses the Pacic Ocean sixtimes as it goes from raw material to becoming a Dellcomputer component. A T-shirt starts in an Egyptiancotton eld, is manufactured in the Far East, shipped toLos Angeles for packaging, and is eventually sold at aWal-Mart in Pittsburgh.

Maritime container trafc in US ports grew by over300% between 1990 and 2005. The global supply chains

that keep food in supermarket aisles, medical suppliesat hospitals, clothes on store shelves, and parts onhand for manufacturing, demand global coordinationand controls of mind-boggling complexity. Most ofthe supply chain costs, however, are being baked inwhen product design and engineering decisions aremade. These decisions imply manufacturing locationsand therefore determine procurement and distributionstrategies and operations. Building exibility into theproduct architecture (through modularity and partscommonality) as well as into operational processes

(through risk pooling and postponement), has becomea crucial component of product design and engineering.Todays engineer needs to design products for thefull life cycle, including manufacture, procurement,distribution, service, upgrade, and disposal.

The complexities of global supply chains, the interactionof corporate objectives with trade policies, currencyuctuations, and distributed product and processdesign, present an intricate set of engineeringchallenges that are central to ESD. They involve theoptimization of these global networks under demandand supply uncertainties throughout many regulatoryregimes and cultures.

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Eegy adSsaablyPer capita energy consumption in the developing world

has more than doubled over the last 40 yearsand yet

the developed world is still consuming energy ve times

faster than that. And the increased consumption is not

limited to energy alone, as shown in the gure below.

As the population and the desire for higher living

standards grow worldwide, demand for energy and

natural resources will outstrip conventional supplies.

As a billion more people strive to improve their living

standards, the challenge lies in doing so without furtheraffecting the global climate and depleting scarce

resources.

Alternative fuels, advanced materials, and improved

industrial processes are all heralded as possible

solutions, but the sustainability of each choice

encompasses more than technology. Engineers need

to expand the scope of their design considerations to

incorporate infrastructure requirements, environmental

considerations, and societal impact.

ESD is working in a number of areas to better frame theproblem of sustainability, to identify existing approaches

that can be used to address issues, and to expand the

set of relevant analytical methods and tools.

For example, ESD researchers are making life-

cycle assessments of alternative materials and

manufacturing processes, examining techniques and

strategies to mitigate resource scarcity and increase the

use of secondary materials, and analyzing the prospects

for different energy sources over the next half-century.ESD researchers are also assessing alternative

transportation technologies and modeling the energy

and environmental characteristics of electricity

generation and transmission under alternative policy

designs, carbon mitigation strategies, and electrical

network architectures.

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10::11


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Hh C DAccording to the World Health Organization, 100 millionpeople are impoverished every year by paying out of

pocket for health care. In the United States, about15 percent of the population isuninsured and tens of thousandsof Americans die each year frommedical errors, according to the USInstitute of Medicine. Furthermore,the aging population in much of thedeveloped world is consuming anever-increasing share of health careoutlays (see chart).

While innovative local initiatives havebeen shown to lower the medicalerror rates and the incidence ofstaph infections at specic hospitals,there are large-scale systemsissues involving medical training,government regulations, andinsurance incentives that are beyondthe scope of local control.

ESD researchers take a systems view to make healthcare delivery more efcient by applying inventory theoryand process improvement methods to the operationsof hospitals and their supply chains. Much of the workinvolves the analysis of trade-offs between risks andbenets of patient treatments; between costs andlevel of service; and between individual rights andsocietys goals. Such work involves not only technologydevelopment and implementation but also a deepunderstanding of the organizational and ethical issues,as well as the human behaviors involvedfrom thesupplier, provider, insurer, and patient perspective.

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by Professor Deborah Nightingale

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Index of relative health care expenditure byage. (The 5064 age group is the referenceat 1.00.) Figure taken from Hagist, Christianand Laurence Kotlikoff. Whos GoingBroke? Comparing Healthcare Costs in TenOECD Countries.

aglb h dd bc mdc

cmc. Image

courtesy of AgeLab


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program managers during the16 days that Columbia was inorbit raises important issuesfor educating and utilizingengineers, as well as questions

about their responsibility totreat system-level issues withthe same disciplinary respectand expertise with which they

treat components.

Sheila Widnall, Institute Professor, MIT and

Member of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident

Investigation Board

MITEngInEErIng

SySTEMSDIvISIon

reSearch

12::13


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ESDAUTHORS

RESEARCH

METHODOLOGIES

Just as nanotechnology is deepening

our understanding of the very small,

engineering systems is expanding

our understanding of the very large

and complex systems that involvetechnology, people, and processes.

Macro-level research brings with it a new and

exciting set of scholarly challenges, not the least of

which is the impossibility of conducting experiments

in tightly controlled environments. ESD therefore

partners with industry and governments to address

problems that are realistic and important, as well as

to simulate new approaches and to test theories inreal organizations.

Macroscopic systems all exhibit technical, managerial,

and social complexity. ESD draws upon faculty

members from engineering, management, and the

social sciences to integrate their methodologies

and develop solutions in each of its four domains of

concentration. More than 50 faculty members and

researchers, most holding dual or joint appointments

with other MIT units, are devoted to teaching and

research in engineering systems.

The following cross-cutting

approaches are some of the lenses

which ESD researchers apply to

multiple domains:

The Interface of Humans and

Technology Uncertainty and Dynamics Design and Implementation Networks and Flows Policy and Standards

Not all approaches fit neatly into these categories, but

in all cases, ESD researchers bring an engineering

mind-set to problems that do not lend themselves

to purely quantitative approaches or purely technical

solutions. They seek out fundamental principles that

can be used to understand, design, and implement

engineering systems.

ESD PhD students BrandonOwens and Blandine Antoine

discuss a system dynamics modelof the possible causal loops that

may have led to the Columbiaaccident. The model wasoriginally developed by Nicolas

Dulac (A&A PhD 07) in ProfessorNancy Levesons research group.

Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz


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The Interfaceof Humans and

TechnologyThe explosion of automated technology and the

emergence of complex technological systems have

greatly increased the need to support human interaction

with these systems. Human errors in aviation, for

example, currently account for almost 80 percent of

accidents. A signicant contributor is human interaction

with the technology: pilots are often confused by

automated mode changes.

Complex technologiesfrom the Internet to global

positioning systemsare now integral to everyday life,

affecting decisions across ESDs four domains. Yet ever-

more-automated devices distance people from physical

control of the action, which can change behaviors and

affect safety. Technology can also put new demands on

organizations, creating a need for restructuring.

Research in ESD focuses on illuminating the complex

relationship between designers, users, and technology

to facilitate the design improvements and effective

operation of complex systems. Recognizing that human

interaction with complex technology has both individual

and group elements, ESD is developing methodologies

and investigating key questions ranging from system

design, to human-in-the-loop modeling, to process

interventions, to organizational structures.

Advances in medical technology

from magnetic resonance imaging

to laser surgeryhave improvedhealth care for millions, but the

integration of new technologies

with existing processes poses a

continuing challenge.

Image courtesy of Intuitive

Surgical, Inc.

Virtual reality displays attempt

to close the distance between

humans and technology. Still,

little is known about the cascading

effects of automation on overall

system performance and safety.

Image courtesy of NASA

esdauthors

theinterface

ofhumansand

technology

MITEngInE

ERIng

SYSTEMSDIvISIon

researchAPPROAC

HES

14::15

res


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Driving Innovation in Aging and Human

Technology Interaction

Understanding how older people learn, interact, and adopt technology is critical

to moving inventions into everyday use. The Engineering Systems DivisionsAgeLabin collaboration with colleagues in Aeronautics and Astronautics, Brainand Cognitive Sciences, and the Computer Science and Articial IntelligenceLaboratoryis working to design a car that enables older people to drive safely

longer.

The labs cherry red VW Beetlexed-base simulator, Miss Daisy, isdesigned to help researchers explore

how in-vehicle warnings, navigation,and entertainment systemsas well asbasic innovations in communications

are learned, adopted, and affect drivingperformance across the human lifespan.

Miss Daisys on-the-road mirror image,Miss Rosie, is equipped with sensorsand video systems to understand howstrength, exibility, and disease affectdrivingincluding such basic tasks as

backing up and parking.

Recently, the AgeLab developed the AwareCara black Volvo SUV thatintegrates more than $1 million of sensors, software, and data analysissystems to understand how visual attention, health, physiological change,

cognitive workload, and in-vehicle technologies affect driving performance. The

research vision is to realize a vehicle that integrates three critical subsystemsof safe drivingthe driver, the vehicle, and road conditions. One of the mostsophisticated experimental vehicles at any un iversity, the AwareCar senses thedrivers performance and adapts its own performance to both the drivers needs

and road conditions to achieve optimal safety and comfort.

Coughlin, J. and J. Pope, A Consumer-Centered Approach to Intelligent Home Services to

Support Health, Wellness & Aging-in-Place, IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology, 27(4),

4752, July/August 2008.

Coughlin, J., Disruptive Demographics, Design and the Future of Everyday Environments,

Design Management Review, 18(2), 5359, Spring 2007.

ESD researchers use

the AgeLabs xed-base

simulator, Miss Daisy

(above) to test the effectsof technology on driving

performance of the

elderly.

Image courtesy of AgeLab

The AgeLabs AwareCar

(right) adapts to boththe drivers needs and

road conditions using

an array of sensors and

computers.

Image courtesy of AgeLab

Real-Time Predictive Human Supervisory

Control Models of Team Collaboration

Complex systems are typically managed by difcult-to-supervise teams of human

controllers. Feedback about interactions between team members, as well as withthe system, may not be observable, and such critical collaboration factors as teamknowledge and shared cognition are difcult to assess in real time.

The goal of this project is to build models ofteam behaviors able not only to recognize the

current state of a team supervising automationin real time, but also to predict future statesof this team. Specically, the team modelsare based upon the observation of behavioral

patterns at both the individual and collectivelevels. A main contribution of this project will be to determine the robustnessof the prediction of future team behaviors based on observing social patternsof collaboration. This project is therefore at the intersection between articialintelligence and social sciences. Given the prevalence of team interaction withmany complex systems such as air trafc control, disaster rst response, andmilitary command and control, this research is relevant to numerous high-risk

critical systems.

Boussemart, Y., & M.L. Cummings, Behavioral Recognition and Prediction of

an Operator Supervising Multiple Heterogeneous Unmanned Vehicles, Humans

Operating Unmanned Systems 08, September 34, 2008, Brest, France.

NASAs control room of the

International Space Station

exemplies how human beings are

increasingly required to work with

multiple layers of technology.

Image courtesy of NASA

Humans & tecHnology

Design & implementation

Energy&

Sustainability

Extended

Enterprises

Uncertainty & Dynamics

Networks & Flows

Policy & Standards

critical

infrastructu

HealthCare

Delivery

Humans & tecHnology

Design & implementation

HealtHc

are

Delivery

Energy&

Sustainability

Extended

Enterprises

Critical

Infrastructures


Networks & Flows

Policy & Standards

1


18/44

Uncetanty andDynamcsGlobalization has opened up a wealth of opportunitiesfor businesses to diversify, expand, and invent new

products and services. But globalization has also

increased the exposure of companies to a wide world

of uncertaintydesign teams are geographically

dispersed, long supply chains are subject to volatility,

multiple actors introduce diverse requirements and

expectations, and regulations change over time and

from place to place. In addition, the rate of technological

innovation means that long-lived products have

to be designed to accommodate unknown futuretechnologies.

ESD research zeroes in on fundamental principles that

can be applied to multiple industries and business

models. Research into uncertainty and dynamics

attempts to answer questions such as:

1. What are the key sources of uncertainty in each

particular engineering systems context?

2. How can these uncertainties be modeled and

quantied so that they can be taken into accountduring design, implementation, and management of

the systems?

3. How can both robust and exible strategies be used

to design systems in order to both mitigate downside

risks and take advantage of upside opportunities?

4. How can properties such as safety and resilience be

maintained as systems change over time?

The basic approaches to tackling uncertainty include

building in robustness and exibility. Improving planningfor uncertaintyto minimize risk and maximize

opportunitiesholds promise for all four of ESDs key

research domains.

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19/44

Uncertainty in Impacts of GlobalClimate Change

One of the most signicant environmental challenges of the 21st century

will be how to address the threat of global climate change. Reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions from human activities will require the developmentof new technologies and energy sources, at potentially high cost. This effort iscomplicated by the wide range of uncertainty in future climate projections.

A primary focus of the climate

change research at MIT is tocharacterize the uncertainty infuture climate impacts. Using MITsIntegrated Global System Model,ESD researchers have performeda rigorous assessment of the most

critical uncertain assumptionsin the model. Using data whereavailable and techniques to elicit

expert judgment, the researchers have constructed probability density functions forthe uncertain model parameters, and have used Monte Carlo simulation techniques

for uncertainty propagation. Probability distributions of critical model outcomes,such as the future surface temperature of the earth, can then be compared betweendifferent greenhouse gas concentration stabilization paths.

The results of this work provide information on how the risks of extreme climate

impacts are reduced by limited greenhouse gas emissions. These probabilisticresults are used by numerous government agencies, including the EnvironmentalProtection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Congressional BudgetOfce, as well as parties to international climate negotiations, to understand thelevel of mitigation effort needed to achieve climate objectives with a given level of

condence.

Webster, M.D., C. Forest, J. Reilly, M. Babiker, D. Kicklighter, M. Mayer, R.

Prinn, M. Sarom, A. Sokolov, P. Stone, and C. Wang, Uncertainty Analysis of

Climate Change and Policy Response, Climatic Change, 61(3), 295320, 2003.

Congressional Budget Ofce (2005), Uncertainty in Analyzing Climate Change:

Policy Implications, January 2005.

New Approaches to Accident Modeling andSystem Safety

Current analytic risk approaches are based largely on the assumption that

accidents and serious losses arise from a linear chain of d irectly related systemcomponent failures, human errors, or energy-related events. These traditionalcausality models do not adequately account for multiple indirect, non-linear, andfeedback relationships among events. They also do not explain accidents that do

not involve component failures but which instead are caused by dysfunctionalcomponent interactions. Each component functions individually within a standardor acceptable performance range or in the context of an appropriate objective,and yet together the component interactions lead to a loss.

ESD researchers are developing new, powerful accident causality models andrisk management techniques that can handle the complexity of todays technicaland social systems. Using systems and control theory as the mathematical

foundations and a causality model (called STAMP) that expands traditionalmodels, the researchers are constructing computational models of the static

(structural) and dynamic aspects of complex, socio-technical systems to provideinformation about potential risks.

This new approach to risk analysis and management has been successfullydemonstrated on technical systems such as building safety into the design of new

NASA spacecraft and assessing the potential for an inadvertent launch in the newUS missile defense system. At the social system level, it is being applied to suchdiverse applications as health care, space shuttle operations, pharmaceuticals,food safety, and corporate fraud. It is potentially applicable to any safety-critical,socio-technical infrastructure.

Leveson, N., A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems, Safety Science, 42(4),

April 2004.

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

DECADAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE(20902100) (20102000)

PROBABILITYDENSITY

0 2 4 6 810

DECADAL AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE C

CCSP 750 STABILIZATION

CCSP 550 STABILIZATION

NO POLICY

NASA EMPLOYEE GAP FOR COMPLETING THE SHUTTLEREPLACEMENTUnless Congress Relaxes Hiring Constraints

Extended

Enterprises

Networks & Flows

Uncertainty & dynamics

Policy & standards

Humans & Technology

HealthCare

Delivery

Critical

Infrastructures

energy&

sUstainabilit

Design & Implementation

Energy&

Sustainability

Extended

Enterprises

Networks & Flows

critical

infrastrUct

HealtH

care

delivery


design & imPlementation

Policy & standards

Humans & Technology

4,000

2,950

1,900

850

-200

0

37.5 7

5

112.5

150

+

+

HIRING

GAP

[EMPLOYEES]

TIME (MONTHS)

Effects of hiring constraints on safety of NASA systems are one of themany social and political factors considered in the new framework forsystems safety for NASAs Space Exploration Mission Directorate.National Academies of Science and Engineering (2006), Issues Affectingthe Future of the US Space Science and Engineering Workforce: InterimReport, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC

Probability distributions of temperature changeover the 21st century under no climate policy,stabilization of CO

2at 750ppm, and stabilization

at 550ppm. The probability of exceeding 4Cwarming under these policies are 80%, 60%, and5%, respectively. FromM. Webster, C. Forest, H.Jacoby, S. Paltsev, R. Prinn, J. Reilly, M. Sarom,A. Schlosser, A. Sokolov, P. Stone. Long-termgreenhouse gas stabilization and the risks ofdangerous impacts. Working Paper, 2008.

TRANSFERSFROM SHUTTLE

LIMITS ONHIRING

CCSP: CLIMATE CHANGESCIENCE PROGRAMSYNTHESIS AND ASSESSMENTPRODUCT 2.1A

18


20/44

Before ESD Associate Professor Daniel Frey began his research,

the one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method of testing designs wasconsidered deficient. For example, N. Logothetis and Henry P.

Wynn, authors of Quality Through Design (Oxford University Press,1995), proclaimed the final demise of the simple one-factor-at-

a-time method. But Frey was a ble to definitively prove the utility

of the method. As Karl T. Ulrich and Steven D. Eppinger laterremarked in Product Design and Development (McGraw Hill, 2007),

an adaptive one-factor-at-a-time approach has been shown toyield better performance optimization.

Design andImplementation

Large engineering systems, such as thosesupporting communications, transportation,and electricity generation and distribution,account for much of the worlds economy.Considering that each one had to be designedfor performance, economy, flexibility, andresource sustainability, one could argue thatsystem design is the single most importantactivity defining modern civilization.

System design is a complex and diverseactivity involving coordination of manyprofessionals and corporate functions,including research and development,engineering, finance, manufacturing,marketing, and distribution and logistics.Design research in engineering systemsexplicitly takes into account within the

design these functional needs as well as the need toplan for future uncertainties. A holistic design furtherincorporates implementation and enterprise adoption

challenges, without which designs are just a theoreticalexercise.

ESD researchers work to improve the various processesassociated with design and implementation, includingrequirements development, product architecture anddesign, program and project management, and newreliability/robustness/testing methods. ESD researchersalso explore the process of implementing various designsand the change management process itself, as part

of a series of projects dealing with the challenges ofenterprise architecture.

ESDAUTHORS

DESIGNAND

IMPLEMENTATION

Adaptive OFAT is used by Cobasys engineers to

improve the performance, reliability, robustness,and cost effectiveness of their energy storage

systems. Image courtesy of Cobasys

b

b

b

b

a

a

a

a

c

c

c

c

E

F

D

Run a resolution III designon noise factors

Change one factor

Again, run a resolution III on noisefactors. If there is animprovement, retain the change.

Repeat the process. If the responsegets worse, go back to the previousstate.

Stop after changing every control

factor once.

THE VIABILITY OF THE ONE-FACTOR-AT-A-TIME (OFAT)EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN METHOD

MITENGINE

ERING

SYSTEMSDIVISION

RESEARCHAPPROAC

HES

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ITY

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Strategic Materials Decisions: SystemsInsights to Improve Recyclability

The average per-capita consumption of materials in the United States exceeds

a staggering 50 kg each day. While the average consumption of the rest of theworld lags significantly behind that of the United States, it is growing at twicethe rate. As in other areas, the challenge is to accommodate this growth whilepreserving resource sustainability.

Materials choices affect every aspect of the life cycle of every product, frommaterials production to manufacture to use, end-of-life, and materials recovery.The environmental effects of these choices are not only the energy consumptionand emissions from product manufacture, but also the environmental

consequences of the uses to which these products are put.

Product and materials recycling can limit the environmental impacts ofmanufacturing processes, but its implementation has been largely opportunistic,rather than grounded in an appreciation of the interactions among materials

science, production technology, materials markets, and product life cycles.Using simulation and stochastic optimization methods, ESD researchers havedeveloped recycling strategies that include redesign of materials, products,recycler processes, recovery infrastructure, and policy. This work has shownthat reframing production analyses around these broader interactions yields

tools that can identify undervalued raw materials, refine batch-mixing decisions,characterize recycling-friendly alloy design, and guide strategic alloy choices.Additionally, the team discovered that probability-based models can identifyoperational improvements across many forms of production.

This work is currently extended to model how recycling system policy andarchitecture influence recovery economics and effectiveness; the potential for

technological solutions to mitigate the deterioration of secondary resources;and the role of recycling to manage volatility and scarcity in the larger materialssystem.

Gaustad, G., P. Li, and R. Kirchain, Modeling Methods for Managing

Raw Material Compositional Uncertainty in Alloy Production, Resources,

Conservation, and Recycling, 52(2), 180207, 2007.

Real Options in System Design

Although designers often promote the idea of flexibility, explicit consideration

of flexibility in system design represents a considerable departure from currentengineering practice. The rationale for flexibility in design is that, due to

uncertainty, there is value in having the right, but not the obligation, in otherwords, an option, to react to future developments.

This research focuses on the development of valuable flexibility in designs.Conceptually and professionally, this work lies midway between standardengineering (which does not consider design flexibility in any detail) and financialreal options analysis (which does not look at design). ESDs research team hasdeveloped a screening model approach to the core problem of identifying the

system elements that should be flexible in order to increase value. Screeningmodels are mid-fidelity models that run much faster than standard detaileddesign models. They can be used to examine the performance of many designsacross great ranges of scenarios, thus pinpointing system architectures that are

the most attractive prospects for detailed design.

Proper inclusion of flexibility in system design can increase the expected value ofprojects by over 25%. ESD researchers work closely with industries ranging fromaerospace and satellite communications, to automotive and energy, to healthcare, construction, and real estate to identify opportunities for flexible designs.

Wang, T. and R. de Neufville, Identification of Real Options in Projects, 16th Annual

INCOSE International Symposium, Orlando, July 2006 (Prize for Best Paper at

INCOSE International Symposium).

THE MATERIALS CYCLE

1

2

3

4

APPLICATIONS OF THE INTEGRATED SCREENINGMODEL TO OIL AND GAS FIELD DEVELOPMENT

Deterministic inputs:

50% OOIP Bespoke facilities design

Fixed oil/gas market price

Bespoke DesignOil/gas price

Oil/gas price

Oil/gas price

RU: RESERVOIR UNCERTAINTY MU: MARKET UNCERTAINTYOOIP: ORIGINAL OIL IN PLACE STOOIP: STOCK TANK ORIGINAL OIL IN PLACE

+

+

+

+

+

+

TRADITIONAL

PRACTICESingle number forNPV as a decisionmaking criterion

NEW PARADIGM

Value-at-Risk-

and-Gain

Curve (VARG)

Expected NPV

Maximal Gain

Maximal Loss

Initial CAPEX

Value of

Flexibility

Baseline NPV

NPV distribution

RU + MU

NPV distribution +

RU + MU + flexibility

staged facility

NPV distribution +

RU + MU + flexibility

staged facility +

tie-back options

Flexible staged

facilities + intelligent

decision rules

Flexible facilities +

intelligent decision

rules + tie-back

flexibility

Reservoir:

STOOIP

Reservoir:

STOOIP

Reservoir:

STOOIP

>

>

>

>

>

>

Evaluation of the value of flexibility in the design of upstreamoil and gas exploration facilities begins with establishing a

deterministic baseline design (1), followed by evaluation ofthe design under uncertainty (2), response under uncertainty

with facility-level flexibility (3) and response with increasinglysophisticated flexibility strategies such as the tie-in of newfields over time (4). Courtesy of Professor Richard de Neufville

The complete set of

strategies to improvematerial recovery only

emerge when consideringthe system as a whole.

Figure courtesy of Professor

Randolph Kirchain

Networks & Flows

UNCERTAINTY & DYNAMICS

Humans & Technology

HealthCare

Delivery

DESIGN & IMPLEMENTATION

Policy & Standards

Critical

Infrastructures

ENERGY&

SUSTAINABIL

EXTENDED

ENTERPRISES

Extended

Enterprises

Networks & Flows

UNCERTAINTY & DYNAMICS

Humans & Technology

HealthCare

Delivery

Energy&

Sustainability

CRITICAL

INFRASTRUCT

DESIGN & IMPLEMENTATION

Policy & Standards

PRODUCTION

RECLAMATION

PRODUCTS

SCRAP

P r o

du c

t L

os s es

ReclamationLosses

Primary

Manufacturin

gScrap

20:


22/44

Networks and FlowsNetworks and ows characterize all engineering

systems:

Technicallyas power generation plants link to

transformers, transmission lines, and consumers

Sociallyas contractual relationships, government

policies, and cultural needs affect the ow of people,

goods, and information

Manageriallyas links connect designers, suppliers,

manufacturing plants, warehouses, distribution

centers, and retail shops

Network modeling has been used both for systems

that resemble physical networks and as a powerful

modeling tool to represent many other systems

involving relationships between entities. For example,

decisions over time and space can be represented by a

graph structure, as can schedules and assignments.

ESD research into networks and ows applies modern

graph and network theory to complex systems, but does

so in a way that allows a representation of the dynamics

and uncertainties that are most relevant to engineering

systems.

esdauthors

networksand

flows

The intermodal station in the vast

logistics park in Zaragoza, Spain, is

shown under construction in 2007.

The rail, air, and road network in thepark underlie the complex network of

companies, processes, and ows serving

as a hub for southwestern Europe.

Image courtesy of the

MIT-Zaragoza Program

MITENgINE

ErINg

SySTEMSDIvISIoN

researChAPPROAC

HES

:21


23/44

22::


24/44

Policy and StandardsMany modern engineering challenges require solving

problems subject to political, legal, and regulatory

constraints. The increased reliance of modern societieson engineering systems requires ESD researchers to

consider many such constraints to be design variables.

Rather than treating regulations and policies as given,

ESD researchers investigate how they can be changed

as part of the design process. Understanding the policy-

setting process is thus critical to translating insights

gained from modeling and analysis into comprehensive

solutionsones that include policy making, engage

diverse constituencies, and incorporate implementation.

For example, while the original development of theInternet standards was perceived as a technical

problem, todays challenges involve industrial

economics of the telecommunications industry,

intellectual property law, privacy, and security.

Technical standards and protocols are fundamental

determinants of the scope of the technical systems,

economic markets, and policy domains that are

objects of study in ESD. Interoperability standards

and protocols allow components of a system to worktogether, and standardized measures of performance

allow for outsourcing of fabrication and assembly of the

components of complex systems.

ESD researchers are studying various policy-setting

mechanisms and are involved in setting policy within

their research areas. For example, the Program on

Emerging Technologies explores how protocols and

standard-setting can influence both the technical and

industrial trajectories of emerging technologies. The

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Researchintegrates climate science with economic

modeling to assess the effectiveness of

policy instruments needed in the face

of greenhouse gas emissions. And the

Materials Systems Laboratory seeks to

couple product design and manufacturing

choices with environmental and economic

consequences to guide materials and

process research toward more sustainable

product development.

The standardized bar code speeds transactions andsimplifies inventory tracking.

Many ESD students, mostly in the Technology

and Policy Program, have interned at federal

and state government agencies.

iStockphoto.com/Dieter Spears

ESDAUTHORS

POLICYAND

STANDARDS

MITENGINE

ERING

SYSTEMSDIVISION

RESEARCHAPPROAC

HES

23

sbility

sre


25/44

CO2 Geological Storage Options

A multi-disciplinary team with expertise in systems analysis, economics,

sequestration, law, and political science looked at the challenge of regulatingcarbon dioxide and storage. The research combined legal analysis of potential

tort liability from seismicity that might be induced by carbon injection intogeological formations and from contractual liability from carbon dioxide leakagefrom structures, with a technical review and assessment of sequestration

options. The technical analysis concentrated on the storage of CO2 in deep salineformations and oil and gas elds, which are considered to be the most likelynear-term geological storage options. Deep saline formations and oil and gaselds are believed to offer the largest capacity for geological storage and in manycases are in close proximity to large sources of CO2.

The legal analysis of liability relied on conventional legal research methods toidentify relevant statutes and cases and assess their implications for contractualand tort liability.

The work was presented to staff members of the US Senate Committee on Energyand Natural Resources who were writing legislation to regulate sequestrationrisks. The team was also commissioned to write a brieng paper on liabilityissues for the International Risk Governance Council.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Flu

Preparedness and Response

SARS and avian u have raised awareness of the risk of pandemic u, and billions

of dollars are now being devoted to inuenza research. However, little attention hasfocused on simple behavioral changes that can reduce the incidence of infection.This research merges probabilistic model building with social science andmanagement principles, to show that simple, non-pharmaceutical interventions

(NPIs) could signicantly reduce the death toll of an epidemic.

To depict the social contact behavior of a heterogeneous population susceptibleto infection, the researchers developed a non-homogeneous probabilistic mixingmodel. They partitioned the population into subgroups, based on frequency of

contacts and infection propensities, and then developed a difference equationmodel to depict the evolution of disease. This model showed that earlyexponential growth of the disease among those with frequent human contact maynot be indicative of the general populations susceptibility, and social distancingmay be effective in combating u.

Under reasonable assumptions, the model predicts that early and intense use ofNPIs can reduceby as much as 20 to 40 percentu infection and death rates.This research led to a two-day workshop on pandemic u for representatives from

12 states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the US Department of

Homeland Security, and others. In recognition of this work, Professor Richard C.Larson has been invited to become a member of the Board on Health SciencesPolicy of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academies.

Lrsn, R.C., Simpl Mls f Innz Prgrssin Wihin Hrgns Pplin,

Operations Research, 55(3), 399412, MJn 2007.

Nigmlin, K.R. n R.C. Lrsn, Living wih Innz: Impcs f Gvrnmn Imps n

Vlnril Slc Inrvnins, ppr in European Journal o Operational Research, 2008.

THE EFFECT OF TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS

CO2

STORAGE LIAbILITy PROPOSAL

SeaLeVeL

1KM

1

23

3b4

PRoduCed oIL oR GaS

INJeCted Co2

StoRed Co2

OVERVIEw OF GEOLOGICAL STORAGE OPTIONS

1 dpl il n gs rsrvirs

2 us f Co2

in nhnc il n gs rcvr

3 dp slin frmins () ffshr (b) nshr

4 us f Co2

in nhnc cl b mhn rcvr

The most promising CO2 storage options are in deep

saline formations and oil and gas elds. The research

comined technical storage sstems analsis ith

market considerations, tort and contractual liailit

issues, and regulator sstems analsis.

fgure rom: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture andStorage, Summary or Policy Makers and TechnicalSummary, IPCC, (2005)

Criical

Infrasrucurs

dsign & Implmnin

exn

enrpriss


Policy & standards

Nwrks & Flws

energy&

sUstainab

HalhCar

dlivry

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enrgy&

Susainabiliy

Criical

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dsign & Implmnin

exn

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ca

delivery

HUmans & tecHnology


Policy & standards

Nwrks & Flws

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8,000

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Figir, M., H. Hrzg, P. Jskw, K. o, n d. Rinr, Rgling Crbn dixi

Cpr n Srg: Lgl, Rglr n orgnizinl Isss, Inrninl Risk

Gvrnnc Cncil, Jnr 2007.

Infection spread ithin a communit

that reacts to previous das nes

onl proportionall scaling ack

the average numer of contacts

for all its memers. Courtesy oProessor Richard Larson

24::2


26/44

ESDs educational programsare the embodiment of MITsmens et manus philosophy,academically rigorous but alsowell-grounded in practicethrough ESDs unique set of

partnerships with industry andgovernment.

Steven R. Lerman, Provost and Executive

Vice President for Academic Affairs,

George Washington University;Former Dean for Graduate Education, MIT

MITEngInE

ErIng

SySTEMSDIvISIon

education

5


27/44

1Inadditiontothefourmastersprogramsshowninthetable,ESDoffers

amastersprogramforstudentswhowishtopursueanindependentadvanceddegreeinengineeringsystems.TheESDSMisalsoanoptionfortheengineeringdegreeawardedtograduatesoftheLeadersforGlobal

OperationsProgram.

ESD offers a doctoral degree and ve1

masters programs. All programs

share a common, holistic approach to

engineering systems. ESD prepares

engineers to lead in the real world,

where clean answers are anomalies

and challenging technical problems

rarely have purely technical solutions.

Forthatreason,thedivisionisstronglytiedto

organizationsinindustryandgovernment.Thevast

majorityofESDstudentsinthemastersprogramswork

onrealproblemsinindustry,whilethethesisresearch

ofthePhDstudentstypicallyinvolvesmethodological

developments.

AllESDprogramsfocusonleadership,preparing

studentstobeagentsofchangeinacademia,industry,

andgovernment.ThePhDprogramisfocusedon

academicandresearchleadership,whilethemasters

programsarefocusedonindustryandgovernment

leadership.Whatdistinguisheseachofthemasters

programsisitsfocuswithinthelifecyclewhether

studentsdealprimarilywithdesign,manufacture,operations,orpolicyissuesalthoughinallcases

theseboundariesareporous.AllESDstudentsare

expectedtoattaindeepcompetenciesoutsidetheir

areasofconcentration,andinparticularareexpected

tomaintainanddeepentheirtechnicalexcellence.

ESD by the numbers (2008)441 graduate students

51 faculty members

117 ESD courses plus8

under development

Program

DateFounded

Students

enrolled

Programl

ength

(months)

Selectivity(%)1

Yield(%)2

1975

1988

1996

1998

2002

100

95

150

36

60

24+

24

1324

9

3678

363

29

565

23

26

80

82

90

78

74

TPP

LGO

SDM4

SCM

PhD

1Ratio of students accepted to applied2Ratio of matriculated students to accepted

3Excluding internal dual degree applicants4SDM selectivity and yield percentages exclude certificate program students5Pre-selection made by partner companies prior to application

ImagecourtesyofAlexBudn

itz

26::27


28/44

ESD PD ProgrESDs doctoral students are on the leading edge of theevolution of engineering systems approacheswell-

grounded engineers committed to thinking imaginativelyabout ways to broaden engineerings scope to solvecomplex problems. ESD is dedicated to providing thetools they need to lead the wayin academia and inindustry.

Doctoral students in ESD face an ambitiousundertaking. They must acquire a broad view offundamental engineering systems thinking anddeep knowledge of one or more domains of interest.In addition, they are required to develop thorough

competence in certain established methodologies(such as operations research, economics, managementconcepts and methods, and social science methods).And, of course, each students dissertation is expectedto make a seminal scholarly contribution to the eld

of engineering systems. This meansuncovering principles and articulating theproperties underlying such systems, therebyadding to the developing knowledge ofengineering systems approaches.

MITs engineering systems PhD is the program ofchoice in our eld. An average of 15 candidates a year

are enrolled in the program, which takes about veyears to complete. Peers include Carnegie MellonUniversity (Engineering and Public Policy Department),Delft University of Technology (Technology, Policy,and Management Faculty), and Stanford University(Management, Science, and Engineering Department).

PhD StuDEnt PlacEmEnt

(20042008)

industry 34%

ACAdEMiA 36%

govErnMEnt(inC. MilitAry) 17%

othEr 13%

Clockwise from the top:ESD PD 06 Kosios

Kigeros; ESD PD 06 Rph d Prof. Joe Sss;

Prof. ais Weige d ESD

PD 06 heidi Dvidz

MITEngInEErIng

SySTEMSDIvISIon

EduCAtionDoCToral

DEgrEEan

DprojECTS

7

ty RuCtuRES

ures

eED

RiSES

ty


29/44

Tcolo Iusio Aalsis Ud

Uctait

Most new technologies only deliver value once

they are infused into a parent system. While theliterature on innovation is abundant, no rigorousmethodologies have been available to evaluate therisks and opportunities of new technologies within

a wider competitive and regulatory context.

Dr. Smaling developed a technology infusionassessment methodology to quantify the potentialperformance benets of new technologies using

multi-objective Pareto analysis. The costs ofinfusing new technologies are determined bycalculating the architectural invasiveness ofeach technology concept relative to a baseline

system. The degree of invasiveness of differentsystem architectures is related to the amountof design change required to accommodate thenew technology. This can be quantied with acomponent-based change Design Structure Matrix,

DSM. Risks and opportunities are measured by weighing the future benets and

costs of a new technology against uncertain exogenous variables and scenariossuch as gains that may be made by competing technologies and potential futureregulatory actions. The technology infusion methodology was demonstratedfor a hydrogen-enhanced combustion engine, where the effects of integrating aplasma fuel reformer into a vehicle were quantied in terms of fuel economy, NOx

emissions, and vehicle add-on costs.

The methodology for carrying out technology infusion analysis was subsequently

adopted and rened at Xerox Corporation to assess new technologies for digital

printing systems. This work received the Best Paper in Systems EngineeringAward 2007 from the International Council on Systems Engineering.

Smaling, R. and O. de Weck, Assessing Risks and Opportunities of Technology Infusion in

System Design, Systems Engineering, 10(1), 125, 2007 (Award for Best Paper in Systems

Engineering from INCOSE).

Dsi o Locatio: Oso Mauactui

ad Tcolo Comtitiss

Prof. Fuchss research combines qualitative

eld research with engineering-based decisiontools to provide insight into the global drivers oftechnological change. At MIT, she studied theimpact of manufacturing location on technology

development incentives and thereby the technologytrajectory of rms. She looked at two cases ofemerging technologies: advanced compositesin automobiles and integrated components inoptoelectronics. In both cases, her results show

that when US rms shift production from theUnited States to such countries as China, the mostadvanced technologies developed in the UnitedStates no longer pay. Production characteristics

are different abroad, and earlier technologies canbe more cost-effective in countries like China.Among other issues, this leaves the most advancedtechnologies abandoned, and, at least in the caseof the optoelectronics industry, creates a barrier toreturning production to the United States.

With her research group at Carnegie Mellon, Prof. Fuchs continues to studytechnology and global competitiveness, including (1) the role of the USgovernment in seeding and encouraging new technology trajectories, (2) theconsequences of offshore outsourcing for knowledge ows and production-oor

learning within rms, and (3) the resiliency of the US innovation ecosystem to

external shocks, including a critical set of rms moving manufacturing offshore.

Fuchs, E., E. Bruce, R., Ram, and R. Kirchain, Process-Based Cost Modeling of Photonics

Manufacture: The Cost-Competitiveness of Monolithic Integration of a 1550nm DFB Laser and

an Electro-Absorptive Modulator on an InP Platform,Journal of Lightwave Technology, 24(8),

31753186, 2006.

Fuchs, E., F. Field, R. Roth, and R. Kirchain, Strategic Materials Selection in the Automotive

Body: Economic Opportunities for Polymer Composite Design, Composite Science and

Technology, 68(9), 19892002, 2008.

Erc Fchs, PhD 2006Assistant Professor,Department of Engineeringand Public Policy,Carnegie Mellon University

Rd S, PhD 2005Chief Engineer, HybridSystems Architecture,Eaton Corporation

US OpTOeLeCTrOnIC DevICe MAnUfACTUrIng CApAbILITy

HealthCare

Delivery

Humans & Technology

Energy&

Sustainabilit

CRitiCal

inFRaStR

Extended

Enterprises

unCERtainty & DynamiCS

DESign & imPlEmEntation

Networks & Flows

Policy & Standards

Critical

Infrastructu

Design & Implementation

PoliCy & StanDaRDS

HealthCare

Delivery

Humans & Technology

ExtEnDE

EntERPR

Energy&

Sustainabili

nEtwoRkS & FlowS


reLATIOnShIp beTween TeChnOLOgy DeveLOpMenT,TeChnOLOgy InfUSIOn, AnD The SOCIeTAL IMpACT Of TeChnOLOgy

Capital Investment(NRE)

Vehicle add-on cost ($)

unCERtainty

EconomyEnvironmentRegulations

Competition

Improved Emissions andFuel Economy

Vehicle Fleet

Tcolo Socital Imact(Super-system level)

Tcolo Iusio(System Level)

Engine Integration

Tcolo Iusio(Subsystem Level)

unCERtainty

DSM model

unCERtainty

Tcolo Dlomt(Component Level)

unCERtainty

H2

CO1

N2

energy

Plasma FuelReformer

air, fuel

CAD ModelTest Vehicle

US integrated device manufacturing yield has to be 40% higher in order tocompensate for the cost advantage of manufacturing discrete devices in East Asia.

$1,200

$1,100

$1,000

$900

$800

$700

$600

$500

$400

0

UNITPR

ODUCTION

COST($/EML)

ANNUAL PRODUCTION VOLUME (000s)

10

20

30

40

50

bASe CASe yIeLD*

DISCRETE DEVICE BASE CASE 3.9%

MONOLITHIC BASE CASE 2.3%

*yield refers to cummulative yeild of laser

Discrete DeviceBase Case

MonolithicBase Case

MonolithicYield

DiscreteDevice

Yield

2%

3%

3%

4.5%

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Technology and PolicyProgram

The Technology and Policy Program (TPP) strives todevelop leaders who can create, rene, and implementresponsible policies that are informed not only by anunderstanding of technology and its instruments, butalso by the broad social contexts that both shape andare shaped by technology. TPP seeks to equip studentsto be effective leaders in both the public and the privatesectors.

Students pursue a two-year course of study thatincludes classes in law, public policy, economics, andintroductory policymaking and leadership. They alsoconduct funded research projects across all ve ofMITs schools. Roughly one-half of TPP students gethands-on policy experience through the TPP SummerInternship Program, which helps to place students inpolicy-making positions in governments, industry, andnongovernmental organizations.

The TPP thesis is a major research work. Studentsare expected to place a problem within its technicaland social context, synthesize the technical and policy

questions that arise from the problem, frame thesequestions for assessment and evaluation, conduct theanalysis needed to gain insight into these key questions,and provide leadership on what can and ought to be done.

TPPs almost 1,000 alumni include universityprofessors, deans and chancellors, CEOs, CFOs, CTOs,ofcials with government ministries, agencies andNGOsand ve Rhodes Scholars.

What TPP did was open my eyes tohow you could engage problems in asocially relevant way, while backingup your approach with the rigor ofanalytical thinking.

Bryan Moser, SM TPP 89CEO, Global Project Design

Recent thesisresearch:

For his thesis, DrivingSegments Analysis for Energy

and Environmental Impacts of

Worsening Trafc, TPP 07 WenFeng used sensitivity analysisto investigate the effects ofaltering vehicle choice, fuelconsumption, and emissions.

In his thesis, Introducingthe Concept of Sustainable

Transportation to the US DOT

through the Reauthorization

of TEA-21, TPP 03 Ralph Halldemonstrated the institutionalcomplexity hindering theachievement of sustainabletransportation in the United

States.

Bostons Central Artery/Tunnel project (left) involvedsignicant technological feats,

complex project management,

and signicant political and

policy considerations. Many

TPP students have worked

on urban transportation

planning projects, emphasizing

both the technology and

the policy aspects. Over the

years, Technology and Policy

Program students have held

internships in federal and state

government, private industry,consulting rms, and numerous

international organizations.

http://esd.mit.edu/tpp

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System Design andManagement ProgramThe Sstem Desig d Mgemet (SDM) Pgmffes mstes degee jitl ded b the MITShl f Egieeig d the MIT Sl Shl fMgemet. Built fudti f e uses isstem hitetue, sstems egieeig, d sstemd pjet mgemet, SDM fuses impigthe desig f pduts d sstems fm bth tehil d mgemet pespetie.

Studets le t espd t use eeds, lltefutilit, dempse sstems, d deeitefes. The ls le t mge tsks t esuethe best use f esues, bth hum d il,d t meet st, pefme, d shedule tgets.


SDM 06 Si Gms thesisk, A Survey of Thin-Film

Solar Photovoltaic Industry &

Technologies , helped his temi hs i the 2007 MIT 100Ketepeeuil mpetitiith sl-peedmigeetig sstem

ssembled fm mmutmtie pts.

SDM 06 studet Luis Mseddeelped mdel t help

hspitl dmiistts fmeiestmet deisis f histhesis, Real Options Analysisof Flexibility in a Hospital

Emergency Department

Expansion Project, a Systems

Approach.

I k i idust tht is gppligdil ith lge d me mplexpblems. The bilit t step bk dside the big pitue d ll f thediffeet itetisith kledgef bth the tehil d mgeilesis pieless.

Monica L. Gifn, SDM 06

Rdr Sysems Eeer, RyheSDM students participatein a design challengecompetition. Team memberswork together to creatively

tackle a technical problemwithin a short time span.Image courtesy of Alex Budnitz http://esd.mit.edu/sdm

A system dynamics diagram of the reworkcycle in a typical complex project

Figure courtesy of SeniorLecturer James Lyneis

Sorin Grama, SDM 06, and a groupof MIT students and local volunteersin front of a solar thermal system

in Lesotho, Africa. The prototypesystem was built in 2007 as part of a

World Bank-sponsored initiative.

+Experience

Dilution+

Too Big toManage

+Burnout

-

Add People

-

Work More

-

Work Faster orSlack Off

+Haste Makes Waste

experiencecongestion &

communicationdifculties

fatigue

workforce

overtime

effort applied

quality

effort needed

time remaining

deadline

hiring

known work

remaining

rEworKDIScovEry

pRogRESSREwoRk

gEnERation

work intensityproductivity

orIGInaLworK To Do

rEworKTo Do

UnDIScovErEDworK

worKDonE

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Leaders for GlobalOperations Program

Leaders for Global Operations (LGO) students gettwo degrees: an MBA from the MIT Sloan School ofManagement and an SM from ESD or one of the otherMIT engineering departments. LGO focuses on thebroader denition of manufacturing, encompassingdelivery and service. The program is founded upon thebelief that manufacturing and operations excellenceis the basis for the economic and social well-being ofindividuals and companies operating in global markets,and consequently for society as a whole.

LGO students gain a solid background in engineering,operations management, information technology,teamwork, change management, and systems thinking.A dening feature of the program is its internship. LGOstudents spend 6.5 months on an internship at a partnercompany and use the experience as the basis for theirLGO theses.

The tailored LGO leadershipcurriculum provided me with thefoundation to bring to Boeingpractical solutions to complex,real-world problems. LGOsadvanced education has proven,over time, to be robust andenduring. I continue to leveragewhat I learned in my work today.PatrickShanahan, LGO 91

General Manager of The Boeing Companys

787 Dreamliner project


LGO 07 Ken Merriam spentsix months interning with theonline retail giant Amazon

for his thesis, ReducingTotalFulllmentCostsatAmazon

E.U.throughNetworkDesign

Optimization. His work enabledthe company to minimize

its U.K. transportation costsand provided the basis foroptimizing the assignment oforders and inventory to multiplewarehouses.

While interning at Novartis, LGO07 John Heiney utilized a seriesof deterministic and stochasticmodels to predict the impact of

multiple operational changes oncost and cycle time in early-stage drug testing. His thesis,OptimizationofPreclinical

ProlingOperationsinDrugDiscovery, helped the companyreduce materials spending by$500,000 per year, increasecapacity, reduce cycle time, and

improve customer value.

A team of rst-year studentsin ESDs Leaders for Global

Operations Program plans itsproduct development strategies

during a simulation as part ofits Lean Product Development

Workshop. The workshop takesplace during the programs rstsummer.

http://lgo.mit.edu

Andrea Joness internship at HoneywellAerospace in Phoenix, Arizona, is an example

of the breadth of an LGO internship project.Jones, LGO 06, recognized that through

enterprise-level optimization of supply chain,assembly, and test practices, Honeywell could

improve its on-time delivery of quality enginesto customers. She conducted a Lean Enterprise

Self Assessment Tool (LESAT) survey to

highlight opportunities to propel Honeywell toa culture of high performance.

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Sppl ChaiMaagemet Program

The business of logisticsdesigning and coordinatingthe ow of products, information, money, and ideasthrough the supply chainis an enormous industry. TheUS logistics bill is now more than $1 trilliona biggershare of the GDP than that of Social Security, healthcare, or defense.

The Supply Chain Management (SCM) Program wascreated to produce a new generation of supply chainmanagement professionals able to revolutionize thismassive industry. The program focuses on using

engineering principles to solve global supply chainchallenges, providing students with prociency inproblem-solving approaches, information technologysystems, and change management leadership.Graduates of the SCM Program earn a Master ofEngineering in Logistics (MLOG) degree.

Recet thesisresearch:

SCM 07 Joshua Merrill createda cross-enterprise networkplanning model capturing the

risk involved in uncertainty inboth supply and demand for histhesis, Risk in Premium Fruitand Vegetable Supply Chains.

SCM 08 Allison Bennett andYi Zhuan Chins thesis, 100%

Container Scanning: Security

Policy Implications for Global

Supply Chains, quantied the

impact of increased securityprocedures for incomingfreight containers on US-basedcompanies.

My SCM education has givenme tools that allow for a deeperand more meaningful search forbusiness solutions to drive thesupply chain organization forward.Randy Fike, SCM 05Wlw Sly C Sy M,Lxmk

Stdets i the SCM

class of 2009 pla the

beer game (b)demostratig the

bllwhip effect i spplchaithe amplicatio

of orders as oe getspstream ad awa from

the cosmer.

Image courtesy of L. Barry

Hetherington

The graph () shows aistace of this amplicatio

i the atomotie machietool idstr.

http://scm.mit.ed

Major Greg Holt (SCM 2005) wrote

home o Agst 1, 2008, that amoghis ma other crret dties he

codcts logistics aalsis of trafcpatters to restore a health ow

of goods betwee factories admarkets, ad is sig the lessosof ESD.260 i Iraq. (Greg Holt sered

as a Special Forces ofcer i twocombat tors i Afghaista adIraq from 2002 to 2004. He re-joied

the Arm after ishig his MLOGdegree to sere a 3rd combat tor iFalljah, Iraq.)

%C

hangeyearover

year

SuPPLy CHAIn vOLATILITy AMPLIFICATIOn

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80 % Change in gdp

% Change in vehiCLe produCtion

% Change in MaChine tooLS orderS

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

as, e., C. F, g. pk,usm vlly Sly C:t Mc tl isy s Cs Sy,Production and Operations Management, 9(3),239-261, Fll 2000.

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The Engineering SystemsDivision forges partnerships

with industries, governments,and academic institutionsthroughout the world,developing communities of

researchers and educatorsfocused on systems challengesof global importance.

Subra Suresh, Director, National Science

Foundation; Former Dean of the School ofEngineering, MIT

MITEngInEE

rIng

SySTEMSDIvISIon

Global

Reach

Cambridge12 Many of the ideas being explored and


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Cambridge,USa

ESD Headquarters at MIT

12

6

39

12

457

8

10

11

12

6

39

12

457

8

10

11LiSbon,PortUgaL

MIT Portugal

+5hrs

12

6

39

12

4

57

8

10

11ZaragoZa,SPain

MIT-Zaragoza International

Logistics Program

+6hrs

12

6

39

12

4

57

8

10

11abU dhabi,United arab emirateS

Masdar Initiative

+8hrs

Many of the ideas being explored and

the methods being developed within

the Engineering Systems Division are

designed to be put to use in systems

that span the globe.

Expanding the reach of engineering systems by

working with industry, government, and international

organizations is central to the mission of the

Engineering Systems Division.

Large-scale problems require large-scale experiments,

and ESD is utilizing large-scale projects that employ

whole communities of academics, industry experts,

and government partners to integrate research witheducation. Rather than conning research to the

classical laboratory within the university, many ESD

researchers laboratory is the real world, and their

research is performed in the very environments that

their ideas and solutions are designed to inuence.

12

6

39

12

457

8

10

11bogot,CoLombia

The Center for Latin-American

Logistics-1hr

12

6

39

12

4578

10

11Shanghai,China

LFM China

+12hrs

Global S ppl Chain and Logistics

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Global Supply Chain and LogisticsExcellence Network

The LOGyCA campus contains several

demonstrations of using advanced

information technologies in logistics

application, including several

simulated store formats, a hospital

and a warehouse. Pictured: an RFID-

enabled simulated supermarket

where alternative software solutions

can be tested. Courtesy of LOGyCA

The Global Supply Chain and Logistics Excellence (SCALE) Network is an internationalalliance of three leading research and education centers founded and organized by theMIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. Members are dedicated to sustainableglobal economic growth through the development of supply chain and logisticsknowledge, technology, and processesand to their dissemination thougheducation and training.

Member centers:

The MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics in Cambridge, MA. Widelyrecognized as an international leader in transportation, logistics, and supplychain management research and education, the center manages the SupplyChain Exchange, a consortium of more than 50 partner companies. The centeralso helps coordinate the extensive transportation and logistics research andeducational offerings conducted throughout MIT.

The Zaragoza Logistics Center (ZLC) is home of the MIT-Zaragoza InternationalLogistics Program in Zaragoza, Spain. This research and educationpartnership, launched in 2003, brings academia, industry, and governmenttogether to experiment with new logistics processes, concepts,and technologies. It is in the process of moving into the center of

PLAZA, the largest logistics park in Europe, home to more than 300logistics and distribution installations, using these companies asa living laboratory. In 2006, the ZLC was designated by the Spanishgovernment as its national Center of Excellence in Logistics.

The Center for Latin-American LogisticsInnovation in Bogot,Colombia. Founded in 2008, this center, which is housed in LOGyCA,is the focal point of a network of Latin American universities engagedin supply chain management education and research. Current projectscenter on critical infrastructure, urban transportation, and operational riskmanagementbalancing a global perspective with Latin-American needs.Less than six months after its founding, the CLI was designated by theColombian government as its Logistics Center of Excellence.

The $36million SCALE program involves dozens of European and Latin-American universities, more than 15 supporting companies in Spain and sixin Colombia, and more than 20 public agencies and NGOs. The Zaragozaprogram involves more than 20 faculty members locally, while dozens offaculty members across Latin America are involved in the Colombia program.

Faculty, researchers, students, and afliated companies from all three centers pool

their expertise and share in learning through joint projects, student exchanges, facultyvisits and multi-continent corporate events. Together the centers collaborate on

the development of toolsand processes that helpretailers, manufacturers,suppliers, and carriers thrivein an increasingly complexand competitive businessenvironmentand in asustainable fashion.

The Center forLatin-American LogisticsInnovation

The MIT Center forTransportation &Logistics

Degrees Offered MIT-CLI Supplemental Master

Certicate in InternationalLogistics and Supply Chain

Management MIT-CLI Supplemental PhD

Certicate in InternationalLogistics and Supply ChainManagement

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SCALE Projects:

Culture of Risk

This effort explores how the concepts of risk, as well as business continuity planningand risk management differ across the globe. One major question of this research iswhether the risk management culture of a multi-national company dominates thatof the local culture where a facility is located. The project consists of research teamsin four continents (North America, Latin America, Europe, and Asia) interviewingcorporations and developing models to understand how risk is measured, monitored,and managed.

Health Care Delivery in Emerging Markets

This set of projects, based out of the Zaragoza Logistics Center in Spain, isdetermining the best way for drugs to be distributed within emerging markets. Thekey is

esd_strategicplan2011

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