esa-esrin, frascati, rome, italy · esa-esrin, frascati, rome, italy 3 18th – 29th august 2003...
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ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20031
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20032
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20033
contingency table
• FAR=FA/(FA+CR) false alarm rate
• HR=H/(H+M) hit rate
CorrectRejection
MissEvent is not
forecast
False AlarmHitEvent is
forecast
Event is not
observed
Event is
observed
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20034
example: climate of model rain=f(range)
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20035
model temperature climate
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20036
model wind climate
model wind errors
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20037
forecast scores = f(range) models vs radiosondes
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20038
forecast scores, evolution
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 20039
monitoring using an observable (GPS)
basic obs/model case study(ECMWF wind, aicraft, profilers)
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 200310
flooding case study: 2 models, radar, raingauges
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 200311
assimilation monitoring with multiple obs systems
ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Rome, Italy
18th – 29th August 200312