equity research and analysis

8/11/2019 Equity Research and Analysis

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1. Introduction

1.1- Introduction of the Project

The project deals with fundamental analysis of Greenply Industries Ltd. It is the

largest interior infrastructure company. The project includes future valuation of

the stock and interpretation of financial statements. This analysis would help us

to get proper valuation of the company.

1.2- What is Equity Research?

Equity Research has been proved valuable to Investors. It aims at identifying

opportunities for the creation of wealth and arriving at right investment

decisions. The use of research reports prepared by the Analysts has been

increased. Reports are to be prepared carefully as the Investors rely on the

information for the Buy/Sell of Stocks as provided by the research reports.

There should not be any Lack of Information. Equity research can be

complicated, but it involves finding out which stocks are likely to fall or rise,

and the level of risk associated with them.

Reports are been prepared by Analysts. While preparing research report, analyst

should have Good knowledge about the market and proper understanding of the

equities. Under the traditional system, brokerage houses provided research in

order to gain and keep clients. Individual Investors prefer low risk investments.

Their decision to invest is based on advice from sock brokers or friends rather

than going for technical analysis.


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Institutional Investors are major part of Equity Research. As they are not

interested in small investments, they always invest in large volumes. They play

safe and mostly collect primary data before providing the capital. They take

calculated risk as they are custodian of investors in their institutions. They hire

their own analysts in order to gain competitive edge over other investors.

Analysts are been paid brokerage commissions by different institutions if their

research reports are liked and taken into consideration by Institutional Investors.

Investors need to be continuously informed about the market conditions,

whether to trade in a stock or not, etc. in order to maintain reputation and

credibility of the company.

On a day-to-day basis, most stock tends not to have dramatic price movements.

However, research is been carried on the basis of price movements of the stock,

any news/ information pertaining to Industry or Sector which gets released

periodically as this news has the potential to move stock by several percentage

points. For e.g. any expansion in business, repayment of debt, mergers oracquisitions, etc. Good news can increase the value of the stock, while a bad

news leads to fall in price of stock.

Equity Research Analyst needs to prepare proper financial models i.e. revenue

model, quarterly, half yearly and yearly break up of financial statements, review

of the statements, ratios, valuation scenario, costing techniques used andstatisticsin order to derive companys proper valuation. An analyst also has to

take proper Fundamental and Technical analysis methods to analyze and value

the stock.

Analyst have to evaluate Companys Business Model, its Market Capitalization,

Current Market Price, Top line and Bottom line growth, CAPEX of the

company, demand and supply of the product, the position of Industry, Growth


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in Earnings Per Share, Return on Equity and Return on Capital Employed,

Movement in Trade Volumes, etc.

Valuation is been done on the basis of Financial Statements such as Income

Statements, Balance sheet, Cash Flow Statement and Ratio Analysis. Cost

of Equity, Cost of Preference Shares, Cost of Debt, WACC (Weighted Average

Cost of Capital) needs to be taken into consideration.

There are more than 50 Equity Research Firms in India. As there is huge

competition, Analysts should keep proper track records of the different

companies in the sector they are researching into. They should keep a regular

track on movement in price of stock, whether any new rules and regulations are

been laid down by Government, Interest factor, quarterly reports, Analyst

meets, attend conference calls and clear the doubts if any with the management.

There are two types of Equity analysis:

1) Fundamental analysis

2) Technical analysis.

In equity analysis, calculations are based on facts & not on hope. Equity

analysis does not discuss how to buy & sell shares, but does discuss the

methods, which enables the investor to arriving at buying & selling decision.

The Technical Approach to investment is basically determined by the changing

attitude of investors toward a variety of economic, monetary, political and

psychological forces. The art of technical analysis is to identify a trend reversal

at a relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence

shows or proves the trend has reversed. An equity analyst tries to identify


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undervalued or overvalued stocks through both his/ her expertise and by use of

available research tools.

Generally for taking an investment decision of medium to long term horizon,

fundamental analysis is widely followed. While for short term trading decisions

Technical analysis is widely followed. Although these two are widely followed

and more rational approach for buying and selling decisions they are not

infallible and hence are not full proof.

1.2.1- FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:

It involves evaluation of companies business model, demand and supply of its

product, its relative strengths and weakness in the industry in which it operates,

the position of the industry, the sales and profit growth, return on equity, growth

in earnings per share etc., The realized value is ten compared with ongoing

market price.

If it is found that the market price is significantly lower than that, then it is

advisable to buy the shares of that Company expecting that market will revalue

the shares in future thereby offering capital appreciation in the value of the

shares.

Following segments would be included in Fundamental equity research:

Valuation Techniques:It includes Interpretation of Financial Statements

such as Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Cash flow Statement, and

Ratio Analysis. With the help of financial statements, it becomes easy for

Investors to understand the Forecasting techniques and growth rateassumptions, the company analysis.


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Valuation Approaches: Dividend Discount Models such as Gordon

Constant Growth Model, Two-Stage growth model, Multi-Stage growth

model, Free Cash Flow Models, Free Cash Flow to Firm, and Free Cash

Flow to Equity holders.

Capital Market Theory: Capital Asset Pricing Model, Cost of Equity, Cost of

Preference Shares, Cost of Debt, WACC (Weighted Average Cost of Capital)

1.2.2- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is based on the movement of market price, graphs and traded

volumes. It is suitable mostly for Short term traders as they try to capture the

price trend for short term money making opportunities. Technical analysis is a

method of evaluating the securities by analyzing the statistics generated by the

market activity, such as past price and volume. In technical analysis, analysts

use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity.

Assumptions in technical analysis:

The Market Discounts Everything: A major criticism of technical analysis is

that it only considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental factors of thecompany. Technical analysts believe that the companys fundamentals, along

with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the

stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately.


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Price Moves In Trend:In technical analysis, price movements are believed to

follow trends. This means that once the trend has been established, the future

price movement would follow the same direction as the trend. Most technical

trading strategies are based on this assumption.

History Tends To Repeat Itself: Technical analysis uses charts patterns to

analyze market movements and understand trends. Although many of these

charts have been use for more than 100 years they are still believed to be

relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat

themselves.


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1.3Objective

To study in-depth analysis of companys financial statements and to

project its future demand.

To study the expected valuation of Stock Prices for the near future.

To guide Investors in Taking proper Investment Decisions.

To guide the Investors to take out profit from the market easily by using

proper combinations while analyzing Equity.

To know the trend of the company and future prospects of the company.


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1.4Scope

This Project report has tried to unearth various investment opportunities

in Greenply Industries Ltd.

To help Investor to understand Industry, Company, Business models

through financials and fundamental analysis.

This report would give a brief idea to investor to invest his hard earned

money in the given company.


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1.5Source of Information

The secondary sourceis used for collection of the data.

Companys Annual Report.

Companys Presentation.

Other Research Reports.


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1.6Limitations

Duration of two months werent enough to understand the whole new

Industry, business sector, related companies, their business models and

operations.

It was difficult for beginner to access complete data of companies.


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2. Company ProfileReligare Securities Limited

2.1Introduction:

Name:Religare securities Ltd.

Address:4thfloor, Kozzy Complex, Kanchpada

Ramchandra lane, Malad (West),

Mumbai400 064. India.

Type of Organization:Financial Services Group

Religare Securities limited

Incorporated in 1984, promoted by Ranbaxy group, Religare Enterprises

(REL) is the holding company of 11 business subsidiaries.

Each of its subsidiaries is engaged in a wide spectrum of financialproducts and services targeted at retail, high-net worth individuals,

corporate and institutional clients.

The company is one of the fastest growing financial services companies in thecountry.

The core purpose of the company is not only to enrich lives of our clients,

employees and shareholders but also contributing to the society at large. Focus

on creating wealth for its clients, respect for professionalism, ethical andtransparent business practices, research based value investing has enabled the

company to grow at rapid pace. Today Religare is a member of both NSE and

BSE and it offers well diversified financial services to its clients.


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2.2 - Services Offered:

1. Share broking,

2.

Financing loans against shares,

3. IPO financing,

4. Distribution of mutual funds,

5.

Insurance broking,

6. Commodity broking,

7. Wealth management advisory business,

8. Private equity,

9.

Merchant banking and

10.Trading in arts and artifacts among others.


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2.3 - Competitors:

ICICI DIRECT

INDIA INFOLOINE SECURITY PVT. LTD.

HDFC SECURITIES

INDIA BULLS

KOTAK SECURITIES

RELIANCE MONEY

SHARE KHAN SECURITIES


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MOTILAL OSWAL

ANAND RATHI SECURITIES

HEM SECURITIES

ANGEL BROKING


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3. Fundamental Analysis

Of

Greenply Industries Limited


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Greenply Industries Ltd.

3.1Introduction

Greenply Industries Ltd. (GIL) established in 1984, as small unit in Nagaland

by Mr. Shiv Prakash Mittal. It got incorporated in 1990 and has most

comprehensive portfolio of residential and commercial floor products. It isengaged in manufacturing of plywood, laminates, decorative veneers, particle

boards and prelam particle boards/ medium density fibreboard (MDF). It is the

largest interior infrastructure company. A rich 35-year industry experience

translated into an ability to ride industry crests and troughs.

The company has created a niche for it in the industry by introducing variousbrands over the last few years and which has been well established. The

company is not only an urban brand but is also a rural brand. It accounts for

almost 32% of organized plywood and 28% of organized laminate market and

30% MDF market in India. The products of the company are available under the

brand names of Greenply Plywood, Green Club Premium Ply, Greenlam

Laminates, Green Decowood and Ecotec. The plywood segment has penetrated

deeper into rural India. In order to suite the demand and affordability of the

product, a product portfolio is been developed by the company.

GIL has strong retail network with 45 branches across India and presence in

over 300 cities, 4 international marketing offices, including overseas

subsidiaries, resulting into wide marketing reach. It has expanded the rural and

export sales team and has strengthened the organization. One of the flagship


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decorative brand, Greenlam is been exported to more than 65 countries

including Thailand, Indonesia, Canada, Malaysia, Singapore, Dubai, USA,

Australia, China and Europe. The focus of the company is to create a

benchmark in the industry by increasing their productivity. It is the first

company to attract FII investment in its sector.

The company has seven manufacturing units located across India at Tizit

(Nagaland), Kriparampur (West Bengal), Rajkot (Gujarat), Behror (Rajasthan),

Nalagarh (Himachal Pradesh) and Pantnagar (Uttarakhand).

The companys manufacturing activities are subject to environmental laws and

regulations by the Ministry of Environment of Government of India, the State

Forest Policy and State Pollution Control Board among other laws which

regulate cutting of trees, discharge of effluents, polluted emissions, and

hazardous substances and so on.

It is the largest Laminate Company in Asia and 5 thlargest globally in terms of

capacity. The company opened 7 Green Studio a one stop gallery for interior

surfacing needs. The company offers Lifetime guarantee on Green Club

Plywood. In order to minimize waste and enhance product quality, company

uses Taiwan made core composers in Nagaland and Pantnagar plant. As the

companys manufacturing process is dry, less amount of water is used. Thecompany imports raw material for manufacturing process and the goods

manufactured are sold in both domestic and overseas market. Finished goods

are also imported for trading.

The company has set up Indias largest and advanced MDF plant at Pantnagar,

Uttarakhand with a capacity of 0.18m cu mtrs. The plant is expected to achieve

optimum utilization by FY14, and will generate revenues of Rs. 3.75bn. In the


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year FY11, the company has been chosen as Power Brand by Indian

Consumers. The plywood facility at Nagaland enjoys 100% corporate tax

exemption and certain excise benefits for 10 years commencing from FY06.

The Uttarakhand unit enjoys similar facilities for 10 years commencing from

FY07. The ad-campaigns of the company have enabled it to get strong brand

recall among the customers. Companys product is exported to more than 65

countries. It depends on sea-bourne freight, rail and trucking to deliver its

products from their manufacturing facilities to their customers.

The company has also looked upon internal strengthening and has introduced

discounts for customers making upfront payments; receivables are declined

from 60 days of turnover equivalent in 2008-09 to 56 days. GIL has also

strengthened its inventory management by shifting from the conventional

factory-warehouse-dealer distribution model to a factory-dealer model

accelerating material movement. Working capital, as a proportion of employed

capital, declined from 16.93% in FY13 to 6.91% in FY14.

As a responsible social organization, the company has been creating value for

society. Below are the various projects of the company meeting the social

responsibilities and generating the value for the company.

3.2 - Promoters of the company:

Mr. Shiv Prakash Mittal, Executive Chairman

Mr. Rajesh Mittal, Managing Director

Mr. Saurabh Mittal, Joint Managing Director and CEO

Mr. Shobhan Mittal, Executive Director


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3.3 - Current Running Projects:

Education, accommodation & facilities for Girl children in U.P. and West

Bengal.

Plantation of tress in Tsunami affected areas in Tamil Nadu.

Intervention of health and life skill education in the remote villages of

Rajasthan for children having age group between 1019yrs.

3.4 - Amalgamation and Acquisition

2005:Company amalgamated with Worthy Plywoods Ltd., due to which

plywood manufacturing unit at Kriparampur, West Bengal was

transferred to Greenply Industries Ltd.

2006:Acquired Greenlam Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd., Singapore, as a wholly

owned subsidiary. Later it established a manufacturing unit in

Uttarakhand for plywood and particle boards.

2007: In order to strengthen the presence in Western India, Company

acquired Galaxy Dcor Private Ltd. and Platinum Veneers Pvt. Ltd. as

wholly owned subsidiaries which owned plywood manufacturing

facilities at Bamanbore, Gujarat.


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2008:Incorporated Greenlam America Inc. as a wholly owned subsidiary

in the US.

2009: Amalgamated Galaxy Decor Private Ltd. and Platinum VeneersPrivate Ltd.

2010: Power brand Status Setting up of India's largest and most

technologically advanced MDF plant at Pantnagar, Uttarakhand. FSC

certification for Pantnagar and Kriparampur plants awarded by the

prestigious Rainforest Alliance Smartwood Program. ISO 9001, ISO 14001

and OHSAS 18001 certifications for Pantnagar, and Kriparampur Units.

Social Accountability (SA) Certificate SA8000 for our Kriparampur unit.

ISO 9001 certification for Rajkot Unit.

The Greenlam Asia Pacific Pte. Ltd., continue to explore the south east Asian

market for Laminates and Greenlam America Inc has a foothold in high

pressure laminates in North and South America. The companys product

Greenlam Laminate became the first Non US brand to get Greenguard

certification from Greenguard Environmental Institute (GEI) US for indoor air

quality.

GIL Revenue and Profits in FY14 have grown at an impressive CAGR of

22.09% and 21.80% over the last 4 years. The Cash Profit and Earning per share

also increased CAGR of 23.11% and 15.38%. As of FY14, Plywood and allied

products contributed 58.93% to total revenue and Laminates and allied products

contributed 41.05% to total revenue.


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3.5 - Manufacturing Units

This unit produces plywood and block board.There is an abundant supply of raw materials from the nearbytimber areas of Nagaland, which enhances smooth functioningof the unit.

Tizit,Nagaland

This facility produces plywood and allied products.

The proximity to Kolkata Port enables the company for smoothinternational access.

Kriparampur,

West Bengal

It manufactures decorative laminates, decorative veneers andother allied products.

The unit is close to emerging markets in North and West ofIndia.

Behror,

Rajasthan

This facility manufactures plywood and block boards,decorative veneers, flush doors, particle boards and MediumDensity Fibre boards(MDF).

Due to its reach to the region's vast agro-forestry resources, ithelps the company to cater the growing North Indian market.

Pantnagar,Uttarakhand

This facility produces plywood and allied products.

It helps to serve the markets located in western parts of India.

Rajkot,Gujarat

This unit manufactures laminates and allied products.

Nalagarh,HimachalPradesh


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Greenply Industries Ltd. is backed by expertise in supplying high quality

products. The growth in real estate sector has enabled the company to gain a

competitive edge in the market. The key raw materials for the manufacture of

products are timber, chemicals and paper. The plywood units are located

strategically close to a rich raw material source in Nagaland and Uttarakhand.

Kraft paper required for laminate manufacture is primarily sourced from the

neighbouring states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. With most of the phenol

manufacturers based in western India, the Behror unit at Rajasthan enjoys

uninterrupted availability of phenol. The Kriparampur unit in West Bengal is

close to the Kolkata port and the Bamanbore Unit at Gujarat is close to the

Kandla port thereby facilitating procurement of timber, phenol and other

chemicals at a lower logistic cost

3.6Types of Products

GreenplyIndustries Ltd.

Plywood andallied products

Laminates andallied products

Particle boards /Medium Density

Fibreboard


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3.6.1 - Plywood and allied products

Plywood is a wood-based panel, which has at the same time a very good

mechanical strength, and a light weight. As an industry dependant on natural

resources, there is always shortage of inputs. The principal raw material for

manufacturing plywood is timber. Plywood consists of sheets (plies) of wood

veneer, which are glued together and it is constructed with an odd number of

plies, which are cross-bonded. The grain of each layer is perpendicular to the

plies above and below it. The outer plies usually have the grain direction going

parallel to the long dimension of the panel and through this construction the

strengths and stability of plywood is guaranteed. It gives a high resistance to

shocks and vibration. Different species can be used for making of Plywood.

European exotic natural species are widely used for manufacture of decorative

plywoods.

Plywood and allied products is the largest revenue generator of the company. Itgenerated revenue of Rs.7.68bn contributing around 55% to total revenue in

FY14. The company has created quality-protecting laboratories to check

incoming raw materials, processes and finished goods. The relevant team

conducted tests, appointed visual inspectors from the Indian Plywood Research

and Training Institute and relevant equipment to reduce plywood layer gaps.

In FY14, Average realization from Plywood was Rs. 189 sq. ft. Due to

commissioning of 3mn sq. mtrs. In FY14, the total production capacity of

plywood increased to 24mn sq. mtrs. The companys Plywood manufacturing

units are at Tizit (Nagaland), Kriparampur (West Bengal), Bamanbore (Gujarat)

and Pantnagar (Uttarakhand). The Uttarakhand and Nagaland plants enjoy

abundant timber resources. The above said units also enjoy corporate tax and

excise exemptions.


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Greenply plywood has high dimensional stability and is 100% wrap free as it is

made from 100% hard wood. It is the first company to provide lifetime

guarantee on its high end products. It has always strengthened its global

presence by participating in International furniture fairs. The company has

planned to open 10 Green Teak World stores in FY14, to offer customers a feel

of value-added products in an uplifting environment.

The Plywood Segment comprises of Green Club Premium Plywood, Green

Club plus Plywood, Green Marine Plywood, Green Flexiply, Green Film FacedShuttering Plywood, Green Flush Doors, Green Block Board, Optima Red

Plywood, Greenply Plywood, Green Fire Retardent Plywood and Ecotec

Plywood. With the introduction of open market system, the farmers and

contractors are able to supply their products directly to company. Design papers

are imported by the company for the manufacture of pre-laminated particle

board.

The Exemption of corporate tax would reduce to 30% for a period of 5 years

commencing from FY12, which would affect the profitability of the company.

In 2010, company started exporting FSC certified plywood. It has a great

demand in Europe and other developed markets. In FY2011, Green Teak World

Stores across India to provide feel of value added products to customers.


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3.6.1.1 - Unit wise plywood capacity details as on FY14

Manufacturing Unit Installed Capacity Capacity Utilization

Tizit,( Nagaland) 4.5m 100 %

Kriparampur (West

Bengal)

6m 108 %

Bamanbore (Gujarat) 3m 121 %

Pantnagar (Uttarakhand) 10.5m 112 %

3.6.2 - Laminates and allied products

Laminates are made using either High Pressure Laminates (HPL), or Direct

Pressure Laminates (DPL). With the DPL method, all the layers are bonded

together under extreme heat and pressure at one time. HPL is done in more than

one step. The development of more stylish and more realistic designs is a keyelement in the growth of demand for laminate. Decorative laminate fixtures can

be designed in order to meet specific design requirements, such as high-gloss

and metallic surfaces, while offering retailers scratch resistance and ease of

maintenance.

Today modern infrastructure would be nowhere without laminates. Laminatehas the power to transform and bring life to ones interior. It is durable and has

stylish surfacing solution for our entire interior needs. Greenply products New

Pointeight laminate and vastu inspired laminate New Mika have become

popular among the designers of this era. The primary raw material for laminates

is paper and chemicals.


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Laminates and allied products generated revenue of around INR. 5.6bn

contributing 41.05% to total revenue in FY14. The production capacity of

Laminates is 10.02m sheets. The Nalagarh unit in Rajasthan started its operation

with a capacity of 4.68m sheets and it enjoys fiscal benefits. The above unit

contributed Rs. 490m to the total revenue in FY14.

It is expected to open up wide area of international and Indian market. Average

realization from Decorative Veneers increased from Rs. 597 sq. ft. to Rs. 662

sq. ft. in FY15.

The company introduced more than 100 new designs, finishes and dimensions

in laminates and decorative veneers. The companys major brands include

Greenlam, Green Touch, Greenlam Supertuf, Green Gloss, Green Flexilam,

New Mika, New Pointeight and Green Decowood. In order to sustain the

growth of this division, the company has planned to expand its European

foothold and strengthening presence in Indian Tier II and III cities.

3.6.2.1 - Unit wise laminates capacity details as on FY14

Manufacturing Unit Installed Capacity Capacity Utilization

Behror,( Rajasthan) 5.34m 111 %

Behror, (Rajasthan)Decorative Veneers

4.2m 28 %

Nalagarh (Rajasthan) 4.68m 90 %


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3.6.3 - Medium density fibreboard (MDF)

Fibreboard is a board encompassing sheet materials manufactured from refined

or partially refined wood fibres or other vegetable fibres. In order to increase

strength, resistance to moisture, fire or decay other materials and bonding

agents may be incorporated in the manufacturing process. Medium density

fibreboard is an engineered wood product which is formed by breaking down

softwood into wood fibres and combining it with wax and resin. It is then used

for forming panels with the applications of high temperature and pressure. The

application similar to plywood, but made of separated fibres. The first

Fibreboard (Hardboard) Industry was established in India during late 1950s and

the first Medium Density Fibreboard plant was set up in India about 20 years

back.

To cater Indias growing mid income and rural segments, the company came

out with Indias largest MDF plantlocated in Uttarakhand (0.18m cu. mtrs p.a.)for Rs. 2.5bn. The thickness of MDF ranges from 2.5 mm to 35 mm as per

requirements. It is used in furniture, windows, doors, frames, display or

exhibition stands and signs, ceiling, toys, carving, partitions and educational

equipments. In India demand for MDF was previously met by imports.

Globally, MDF accounts for 80% of panel products demand. An ever-expanding

global ready-made furniture market is driving the demand for vital rawmaterials like MDF.

The plant is expected to achieve 100% capacity utilization by FY14. Revenue of

Rs. 3.75bn is expected from MDF plant working at full capacity. Due to its

superior properties of edge cutting and moisture resistance it is said to be

substitute for timber. The demand for wood and cheap plywood would be


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replaced by MDF due to its high quality availability at comparable cost. MDF

plant is equipped with German Technology.

3.6.3.1 - Manufacturing process for MDF


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3.7 - GILs sustainable business strategy

Indias largestinterior

infrastructurecompany and

growing player inthe global interior

infrastructureindustry

Doublinglaminatescapacity

Introductionof new

variants across

productsegments

FSC andGreenguard

certification toboost

international

acceptance

Focus on ruraland semi-

urbancustomers

Initiation ofgreen strategy

across all theactivities ofthe company

Enhancingglobal presence

throughestablishing

more marketingoffices

Prudentinvestments instrengtheningbrand in bothdomestic and

global markets

Introductionof MDF

production to

addressmarket gap


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3.8 - MDF vs. Plywood

Cost effective: MDF costs less than half of branded plywood.

Quality: MDF possesses uniform surface and homogeneousconstruction suitable for machine-made furniture and panels.

Customization: MDF surfaces can be laser etched, moulded and

curved.

Acceptability: MDF shapes well with a router, making it a preferred

option for carpenters.

3.9 - Domestic peers

GIL is the largest manufacturer of plywood products in India and has the widest

product range to offer to its customers. However in profitability terms, the

overall performance was impacted due to a change in product mix towards

lesser profitable MDF. In comparison, diversified operations of Centuryplyboards have helped it to be the most profitable company in the sector.

CompanyCMP

(Rs)

Market

Cap (Rs)

(in crores)

Revenue

(Rs)(in

crores)

PAT

(Rs)(in

crores)

Operating

Profit

Margin(%)

Greenply

Industries Ltd. 752.60 1816.50 2159.52 114.47 11.96

Century plyboards

India Ltd. 77.35 1721.25 1283.97 52.65 9.97

Archidply

Industries Ltd. 15 33.10 201.89 2.06 6.42

Uniply Industries

Ltd. 6.30 10.91 122.21 -4.10 1.36


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3.10 - Waste/emission management

The company uses waste generated from plywood manufacture, its largest

product segment. This is used as raw material for particle boards or in the

boiler. Boiler generated ash is then supplied to brick manufacturers. The

company increased the use of agro-waste products like mustard husk and rice

husk to reduce its dependence on traditional energy sources like coal and diesel,

which reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The companys clean and green

workplaces across all its manufacturing units are engaged in responsible waste

management and recycling.

3.11 - Yearly Revenue Break-up (INRm)

There is an upward trend in revenue of the company on YOY basis. In FY15e,

we expect the company to post revenues of INRs16.6bn, a growth of 24%.

MDF

Laminate and allied products

Plywood and allied products


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3.12 - Key Financials and Market Data of GIL

Key Financials

INRm 2012a 20113a 2014a 2015e

Revenues 7,732 8,990 11828 14704

EBITDA 799 948 1118 1396

Margin 10.1 10.3 9.2 9.3

EBITDA growth

(%)

-3.9 18.6 18.5 25.5

PAT 356 409 235 415

EPS (INR) 21.0 18.5 9.7 17.2

EPS growth (%) -8.5 -11.6 -47.5 77

P/E 12.9 11.2 19.5 11.0

P/BV 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.3

EV/EBITDA 7.1 8.9 7.9 6.3

RoE (%) 19.8 15.6 7.6 11.9

Market Data

Sector : Forest Products

Market Cap (INR) : 1816.50

O/s shares (m) : 24

Free Float (m) : 8

52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 301/840

Avg 12m Vol ('000) : 4

Bloomberg : MTLM IN

Reuters : GRPL.BO


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3.13 - Shareholding Pattern

The promoters of the company holds 55% of the shares, while Foreign

Institutional Investors and Domestic Institutional Investors holds 15.08% and

6.48% of the total shares of the company. The remaining 23.44% of the shares

are with the individual investors.

Promoters , 55%

FII, 15.08%

DII , 6.48%

Others, 23.44%

Shareholding Pattern


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3.14 - Industry Overview

Indian Economy:

India has caused a global attention being the fastest growing economies in the

world. In FY13, Indian economy to be grew by 10% and the manufacturing

sector remains static at 8.8% Year on year. In FY13, exports grew by 39.5% and

imports also increased by 25.2%.

Forestry and wood resource: Due to increase in production capacity of the

wood industries, requirement of woody raw material is increasing. But there

seems an imbalance between demand and supply of wood in the country. As

70% of forest have no regeneration and 55% are prone to fire.

The usage of wood for interior design and furniture has been an old tradition in

India. It is noted that more interior wood is used in India than Japan. There is

huge competition in the industry based on competitive pricing, ability to

introduce innovative designs, exclusive product designs, branding, logistic

advances and extent of distribution network.

The size of Indian interior industry is Rs. 130bn, out of which Rs. 52.5bn is

organized. The forest Industry accounts for approximately 25% of total

geographical area. Indian market is dominated by Plywood and block board.With a growth in Real Estate and Housing Sector, the demand for interior wood

products is increasing. Plywood accounts for around 78% of wood panel market

in India. The industry is growing at a pace of 10% - 20% p.a. Indian plywood

industry is at around Rs. 50bn, whereas laminate industry is at around Rs. 30bn.

The Rs. 360bn, Indian Furniture Industry is well-known for its quality anddesign and is exported worldwide. As consumption of Life style product is


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increasing, the Indian furniture industry is expected to grow by 13% - 15% over

five years. Gurjan and Hollong are few among various Indian timbers used in

plywood. India is said to be one of the largest consumer of wood in South East

Asia.

India imports wood from various countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Myanmar

and Ivory Coast, etc. The middle class population in India is becoming more

exposed to the western life-style and is showing an interest in western style

doors, windows and kitchen cabinets.

With the execution of new foreign trade policy, annual export growth is

expected to be around 15% over FY15. Direct employment is provided to

around 40-50000 people by Timber processing zone. It consists of about 400

saw mills and 35 plywood units which will help the country to increase its

exports. In India, large portion of Logs are imported among all wood and wood

products, due to lower import tariffs. Logs are imported mostly from Malaysia,

Ghana and New Zealand due to relatively low prices and freight advantage.

Other suppliers of logs to India are Ecuador, Costa Rica, Nigeria, etc.

More of teak wood and other hardwoods are perceived by Indian wood industry

as they are resistant to termites, decay and are able to withstand the tropical

climate. In India, tropical woods such as garjan, mahogany, etc. are majorly

imported wood species. Temperate hardwoods such as ash, oak, cherry, maple

are imported in small quantities but increasingly as compared to lumber orsquared logs.

The imported furniture market is second largest in India after logs and is fast

emerging market for high end products. Imports of fiber and particle board,

veneer and sawn lumber have also increased over the last decade, indicating

positive demand in the housing, construction, household products, furniture and

packaging sectors.


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Out of total annual consumption of wood in India, ~20% is constituted by

Imports, while plantations contribute 58% and forest contributes 22%. In the

corporate sector, due to high rental cost, more of the ready assembled furniture

is used as it is easy to transfer and reassemble. The structure of Indias wood

market is unorganized and complex. India still lacks high volume quality

controlled production plants that specializes in standard size products for

construction, furniture or furnishings

Globally, the concept of wood waste recycling had been accepted and wood

waste depots have been earmarked by developed countries for making more

usage of wood in manufacturing of particleboards and MDF rather than using

metallic components.

The investment for setting up MDF and particleboard plant is very significant,

which restricts competition from the unorganized sector. The government is

also encouraging this sector by reducing the excise duty. In order to encourage

affordable housing and environment friendly products, some of the stategovernments like Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh have

reduced the VAT from 12.5% to 4%.

China is the Worlds largest MDF manufacturer with 24.9m cu. mtrs. Per

annum. China is also worlds largest exporter of furniture and allied products.

By FY15, it is expected that North Asia will be producing 45% of worldsMDF, and China alone would be producing 41%. Currently, only 1% of MDF is

used by Indian population as plywood is more acceptable in India.

Thus, in long run as the Plywood price keeps going up, MDF would substitute

plywood in low and mid range demand.


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3.14.1 - Growth Pattern of Future demand of wood

Year Demand

(million m3)

Percentage increase

(average per annum)

2000 58.00 -

2005 74.00 5.52

2010 95.00 5.68

2015 123.00 5.89

2020 153.00 4.88

Source: The Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India

The above table represents the average annual growth rate of demand for timber

in Round Wood Equivalent from the year 2000 to 2020. The decline in growth

rate in later decade is expected due to fall in infrastructure growth and focus on

maintenance.


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3.14.2 - Projected demand for panel wood (million m3)

Year Plywood Veneer Particleboard MDF board Total

1998 10.10 0.25 0.13 0.13 10.61

1999 10.50 0.26 0.13 0.14 11.03

2000 11.00 0.27 0.14 0.14 11.55

2005 14.00 0.34 0.18 0.17 14.69

2010 17.96 0.43 0.22 0.21 18.82

2015 22.90 0.54 0.28 0.24 23.96

2020 29.20 0.70 0.35 0.28 30.53

Source: Forest and Wildlife Statistics, India 2004.

India is worlds second largest hardwood log importer andmain market for teak

growers throughout the world. Between 2000-2009, India imported around 4.0m

m3 of hardwood logs compared to import of 7.8m m3 by China.


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3.15 - SWOT ANALYSIS

3.15.1 - Strengths

1. Brand, Scale and Logistics: The Company holds 35% share of Indias

organized plywood market and 21% of Indias organized laminates market. As

abundant raw material resources is available to Nagaland and Uttarakhand units

and West Bengal and Gujarat units proximity to ports results in low

transportation cost.

2. Strong Track Record:It commenced operation of Nalagarh unit in a record

of Nine months.

3. Experienced Management: The management has experience of about 25

years in similar industry. This experience helped the company to become largest

interior infrastructure company in India.

4. Large Distribution Network:Company has Strong retail network with 32

branches across India and presence in over 300 cities, 4 international marketing

offices, including overseas subsidiaries, resulting into wide marketing reach.

One of the flagship decorative brand, Greenlam is been exported to more than

65 countries. The company opened 7 Green Studio a one-stop gallery forinterior surfacing needs. The Company succeeded in rural market by appointing

24 rural sales distributors and they generated revenue of INR 0.3bn in FY10.

5. Entry Barrier:The industry has entry barrier as fresh entries (in wood based

products) are regulated by government.


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6. Diversified customer base: The Company has wide spectrum in building

and construction industry like OEMs, Government departments, luxury hotels,

corporate, builders, multiplexes and in retail segments carpenters, contractors

and dealers.

3.15.2 - Weaknesses

1. Shortage of Raw materials: Conservation of forest and growing concern

about environment have led to reduction in supply of wood, which will affect

the company for manufacturing of their product.

2. Supply of raw materials:Failure in delivery of raw material by suppliers on

schedule would affect the production process of the company and would result

in increase in liabilities, loss of customers and would affect financial conditions

of the company.


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3.15.3 - Opportunities

1. Residential, retail and commercial segment:According to 11th five year

plan (20072012), low and middle income groups are facing shortage of more

than 25m housing units. Retail sector expected to grow at 10.4% and

Commercial space to grow at CAGR of 20% - 22% over five years. Spaces like

airports, convention centres, higher educational institutions, R&D labels, SEZs

and sport centres, among others, are in the pipeline.

2. Overseas opportunity: Increase in production capacity would help the

company to capture demand of overseas market.

3. Untapped potential for MDF: India presently imports ~70% of its total

MDF requirement from countries like China, Germany, Poland, etc. Post

commissioning of its Nagaland unit, it can capitalize on the growing demand for

the product and substitute the expensive imports.

3.15.4 - Threats

1. Competition:Competition from Organized and Unorganized players, leading

to difficulties in improving market share.

2. Environment Concerns: Stringent regulatory norms regarding concerns

over the environment. The company has to comply with the norms

3. Imports:Cheap Imports of raw materials by competitors can reduce the price

of the products as compared to GIL.


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4. Exchange Rate:Any increase in rate of US dollar and Euro can increase the

price of raw materials and can reduce the companys profit margins as it

imports ~70% of its total raw material requirement.

5. Real Estate: In the short term period, the growth of real estate has slowed

down due to rise in interest rates.

6. Substitute:In recent years, Plastic has emerged as close substitute for wood

in terms of furniture, shelves, etc.

3.16 - Risk and concerns

Competition:Low quality products or cheap imports can pose a threat to

company.

Market condition: The future operations of the company may get

affected if the operations do not generate required funds and/or if the

market conditions deteriorate.

Environmental Risk: The procurement of primary raw material timber

may get affected if environment norms are not complied.

Raw material Constraints: Shortage in supply of raw material could

hamper the growth potential of the company.

Technology: Any obsolescence in technology can impact business

activities and can affect the quality of the product and increase in waste.


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Product and Geographical concentration risk: Dependence on a

particular product and particular region can affect the growth resulting in

slowdown of demand.

External Risk:The extent and reliability of Indian infrastructure could

adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition.Indias

physical infrastructure is less developed than that of many developed

nations and the problems with its port, rail and road networks, electricity

grid, communication systems or any other public facility could disrupt

our normal business activity.


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3.18 - Valuation and Recommendation

The Indian market consists of diverse preferences, various income levels and

regional spread. Having talented human resource, reliable IT infrastructure and

advanced technology the company has edge over its competitors. Investments in

commercial real estate are likely to increase in three years. Investments in

airports are estimated to increase to USD 9 bn by FY15. GIL has upgraded its

technology which will help the company to stay ahead of competition.

We believe that companys current products are designed to cater to the large

market providing various forms of customization and thereby satisfying its

target market. We expect GIL to post net sales of INR 14.7bn in FY15e with a

growth rate of 24.3%. With a Tax rate of around 33%, Net profit is expected to

grow by 77% in FY15e to INR 415m. The companys debt-equity ratio

expected to remain at 1:1. Cash EPS is expected to be around INR 34m in

FY15e. The Debt/Equity ratio of the company is expected to improve to 1:1 byFY15e from the present 1:4x.

At the CMP of INR 190, the stock is trading at a P/E of 16.45x and

EV/EBITDA of 6.9x, discounting its FY15e diluted EPS of INR 17.2. It is

trading at EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA of 0.9x and 6.9x its FY15e respectively.

The company will benefit from its Increase in production capacity for plywood,

Laminates and MDF plant that will be utilized 100% for plywood and laminates

and 50% for MDF plant by FY2015e. We initiate coverage with a BUY

recommendation with a price target of INR 752, which represents a 10% upside

from current levels.


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3.19 - Financials INR (m)

3.19.1 - Balance Sheet

Year ended 31st March 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015e

Share Capital 110 85 85 121 121

Reserves & Surplus 2,511 1,399 1,710

2,983

3,356

Networth 2,622 1,484 1,795 3,104 3,477

Minority Interest - - - - -

Debt 4,406 1,750 2,636 4,288 3,967

Deferred Tax Liability 189 123 126 218 267

Capital Employed 7,217 3,357 4,557 7,610 7,711

Gross Fixed Assets 6,370 2,395 2,741 6,505 6,655

Accumulated Depreciation 929 588 742 1,320 1,719

Net Assets 5,440 1,807 1,999 5,185 4,936

Capital work in progress 134 50 402 150 150

Capital Expenditure - 1 115 - -


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Investments 1 1 1 1 1

Current Assets, Loans &

Advances 4,532 3,053 3,915 5,518 6,269

Inventory 2,112 1,513 1,740 2,833 3,407

Debtors 1,628 991 1,312

2,037

2,451

Cash & Bank balance 206 103 173 5 (296)

Loans & advances and others 584 447 690 643 707

Current Liabilities &

Provisions

2,895 2897 1,880 3,248 3,649

Creditors 2,807 2,557 1,814 3,160 3,561

Other liabilities & provisions 88 90 66 88 88

Net Current Assets 1,636 1,498 2,035 2,270 2,620

Miscellaneous Expenditure 4 1 5 4 4

Application of Funds 7,217 3,357 4,557 7,610 7,711


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3.19.2 - Profit and LossA/c


Revenues 4,036 5,884 7,732 8,990 11,828 14,704

Expenses 3,573 5,075 6,954 8,068 10,736 13,333

Operating Profit 463 809 778 922 1,093 1,371

Other income 8 10 22 25 25 25

EBITDA 471 819 799 948 1,118 1,396

Depreciation 87 133 173 224 390 399

Interest expense 118 182 199 240 377 377

Profit before tax 267 504 427 484 350 620

Taxes incl deferred taxation 40 115 71 74 116 205

Profit after tax 226 389 356 409 235 415

Diluted EPS (INR) 9.4 16.1 14.8 17.0 9.7 17.2


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3.19.3 - Per share data


No. of shares (m) 18 17 17 22 24 24

BVPS (INR) 61.5 87.3 105.6 118.6 128.6 144.0

CEPS (INR) 17.7 30.7 31.1 28.6 25.9 33.8

DPS (INR) 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

3.19.4 - Margins (%)


EBITDA 11.5% 13.8% 10.1% 10.3% 9.2% 9.3%

EBIT 9.5% 11.7% 8.1% 8.1% 6.2% 6.8%

PAT 5.6% 6.6% 4.6% 4.6% 2.0% 2.8%

3.19.5 - Financial Ratios


RoE (%) 20.8 26.2 19.8 15.6 7.6 11.9

RoCE (%) 14.6 20.4 13.7 10.0 9.6 12.9

Debt/Equity (x) 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.1

EBIT/Interest (x) 3.3 3.8 3.1 3.0 1.9 2.6


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3.19.6 Cash flow statementYear ended 31st March 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015e

PBT 267 504 427 484 350 620

Depreciation & amortization 87 133 173 224 390 399

Interest expense 129 196 231 260 377 377

Interest / Dividend Recd (15) (20) (37) (32) (25) (25)

Other Adjustments 14 4 15 20 - -

(Inc)/Dec in working capital (218) (298) (502) 423 (834) (652)

Tax paid (38) (95) (79) (102) (88) (155)

CF from operating activities 225 425 228 1,277 171 564

Capital expenditure (546) (506) (797) (3,230) (150) (150)

(Purchase) / Sale of Investments 0 - - - - -

Interest/dividend recd. 15 20 37 31 25 25

Other Adjustments (16) (3) (41) (55) - -

CF from investing activities (546) (489) (801) (3,254) (125) (125)


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Inc/(Dec) in share capital 350 56 - 448 290 -

Inc/(Dec) in debt 242 270 886 1,770 (118) (321)

Dividends & Interest paid (274) (248) (261) (290) (420) (419)

CF from financing activities 319 78 625 1,928 (248) (740)

Net cash flow (2) 14 52 (50) (202) (301)

Opening balance 51 48 62 114 64 (138)

Closing balance 48 61 114 64 (138) (439)

3.19.6Growth IndicatorsYear ended 31st March 2010a 2011a 2012a 2013a 2014a 2015e

Revenue 56.8 45.8 31.4 16.3 31.6 24.3

EBITDA (82.0) 74.8 (3.9) 18.6 18.5 25.5

PAT #REF! 71.9 (8.5) 14.9 (42.7) 77.0EPS #REF! 79.0 (8.5) (11.6) (47.5) 77.0


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3.19.8 - Valuation (x)


PE 20.3 11.8 12.9 11.2 19.5 11.0

P/BV 4.2 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.3

EV/EBITDA 10.0 6.0 7.1 8.9 7.9 6.3

EV/Sales 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6

Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8


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4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


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4.1 LINE CHART

4.2 GRAPICAL CHART


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4.3 BAR CHART OF GREENPLY INDUSTRIES FOR 3

MONTHS


MONTHS

``


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MONTHS

4.6 CANDLE STICK CHART OF GREENPLY INDUSTRIES

FOR 3 MONTHS


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FOR 6 MONTHS


FOR 12 MONTHS


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5. Bibliography

1.

Companys Annual Report.

2.

Bloomberg Software.

3.

www.bseindia.com

4.

www.fao.org

5. www.economywatch.com

6.

www.greenply.com

7. http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F

9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428

8. http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9

AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428

9.

http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E89535

85A1BFD/13?accountid=133428

10.www.investopedia.com
http://www.bseindia.com/http://www.fao.org/http://www.economywatch.com/http://www.greenply.com/http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E8953585A1BFD/13?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E8953585A1BFD/13?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E8953585A1BFD/13?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E8953585A1BFD/13?accountid=133428http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/http://www.investopedia.com/http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E8953585A1BFD/13?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/305344061/12F9A9E8953585A1BFD/13?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/89142387/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/2?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://search.proquest.com/business/docview/208901898/fulltextPDF/12F9AFC86F914F2733A/1?accountid=133428http://www.greenply.com/http://www.economywatch.com/http://www.fao.org/http://www.bseindia.com/


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6. APPENDIX


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5.1Business / Industry Related Terms

Term Description

BWR Boiling Water Resistant.

CBM Cubic Meter.

CEC Central Empowered Committee.

CER Certified Emissions Reductions.

CIF Cost, Insurance and Freight.

HDF High Density Fibreboard.

Interiors Infrastructure Industry The industry comprises companies that

manufacture materials which help in

building of interior infrastructure and are

used for various applications including

enhancing the utilization of space, making

sturdy, safe and secure and includes interiorproducts (furniture, doors, windows,

flooring, etc.).

The product portfolio consists of plywood

and laminates, marbles and tiles, paints and

varnishes, electricals, ceramics and pottery,

glass, home furnishings, decorative items,

etc.

KL Kilo Litre.

MDF Medium Density Fibreboard.

MR Moisture Resistant.

PB Particle Board.

PLB Pre Laminated Particle Board.


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5.2Abbreviations

Term Description

CEPS Cash Earnings Per Share.

EPS Earnings Per Share.

FCCB Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds.

FDI Foreign Direct Investment.

FII(s) Foreign Institutional Investors registered with

SEBI under applicable laws.

FIPB Foreign Investment Promotion Board.

GDP Gross Domestic Product.

GOI Government of India

Re./ Rs./ Rupees/ INR Indian Rupees.

SEBI Securities & Exchange Board of India.

Sq m Square Meters.

YOY Year on Year.

INR mn Indian Rupee in Million

INR b Indian Rupee in Billion

equity research and analysis

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