equity daily calls from italy 8 march 2018: 10:08 cet date ...91bae9eb-e507-4031-b10a-fcf84… ·...

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Equity Daily

8 March 2018: 10:08 CET Date and time of production

Italy Equity Daily

Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department

Equity Research Team

Corporate Broking Research Team

Sales & Trading +39 02 7261 2905

Calls From Italy Company News 2

Atlantia (ADD) Atlantia and ACS in Talks 2 Azimut Holding (HOLD) February Net Inflows 2 Banca Generali (ADD) February Net Inflows 2 Banca Mediolanum (ADD) February Net Inflows 3 Credito Emiliano (HOLD) Interview with Mr Gregori 3 Creval (HOLD) Last Day to Exercise Option Rights 4 Diasorin (HOLD) FY17 Results and 2018 Guidance in Line 4 ERG (ADD) FY17 Results and BP 2018-22 Highlights 5 Generali (ADD) Press Update on Real Estate 5 Hera (BUY) M&A Marche Multiservizi 6 INWIT (HOLD) Bullish Conference Call 6 Iren (ADD) 4Q/FY17 Results 7 Mediobanca (ADD) Finalisation of the Acquisition of 69% of RAM AI 8 Telecom Italia (BUY) Feedback from Conference Call 9 Telecom Italia (BUY)/Mediaset (NO RATING) Press Newsflow on Elliott Intensifies 10 Tenaris (U/R) Mexico and Canada Exempted from Steel Tariffs 10

Previews 11

Autogrill (BUY) FY17E Preview 11 Azimut Holding (HOLD) Results Preview 12 S. Ferragamo (HOLD) Results Preview 13

Recent Credit Research 14

ASPI Solid 2017 Results, Outlook Sees Improvement 14

Source: FactSet Priced at market close on day prior to issue (except where otherwise indicated) In this report we confirm the ratings and target prices assigned in the latest company reports (unless otherwise indicated)

Source: FactSet Source: FactSet

Date and time of first circulation: 8 March 2018: 8:58 CET

Equity Indices PerformancesItaly Price chg %FTSE It. All Share 24695 1.16FTSE MIB 22473 1.22FTSE It. Star 36883 1.11Europe Price chg %DAX 30 12245 1.09CAC 40 5188 0.34IBEX 35 9599 0.13FTSE 100 7158 0.16US Price chg %Dow Jones 24801 -0.33NASDAQ 7397 0.33S&P 500 2727 -0.05

FTSE MIB & Euro Stoxx Best PerformersItalian FTSE MIB Price chg %Recordati 29.93 3.28Brembo 12.58 2.78Italgas 4.56 2.68Poste Italiane 7.15 2.64Moncler 28.95 2.51

Euro Stoxx Sectors Price chg %Real Estate 234.8 1.64Technology 500.3 1.55Financials Services 455.4 1.47Health Care 783.2 1.14Chemicals 1072.5 0.95

FTSE MIB & Euro Stoxx Worst PerformersItalian FTSE MIB Price chg %Tenaris 14.16 -1.15Buzzi Unicem 20.82 -0.72CNH Industrial 10.85 -0.14YNAP Group 37.72 0.03S. Ferragamo 21.85 0.09

Euro Stoxx Sectors Price chg %Retail 463.3 -0.19Media 216.5 -0.12Telecommunications 293.0 -0.01Oil & Gas 305.6 0.11Travel & Leisure 226.4 0.14

SAMPLE

Equity Daily 8 March 2018

Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department 2

Company News

Atlantia (ADD)

Atlantia and ACS in Talks

News: According to the Spanish press (Expansion), Atlantia and ACS are in talks to finalise a break-up of Abertis assets with the aim of avoiding a bidding war. The press article does not clarify which assets could be acquired by Atlantia but explains that both Spanish and International assets would be part of the deal. According to the same source, La Caixa is involved in the negotiations.

Our view: The goal to avoid a bidding war may be a positive for Atlantia as a collusive approach could remove the risk for the Italian group of overpaying Abertis while at the same time reducing Atlantia’s releveraging. However, we see this solution as difficult to implement given the diverse characteristics of the assets in terms of growth prospects (i.e. Latam vs. European motorways) as well as in terms of the duration of the concessions (Spanish vs. France/Latam).

Source: FactSet and Intesa Sanpaolo Research estimates

Click here to enter text.

Azimut Holding (HOLD)

February Net Inflows

News: In February, Azimut recorded a positive net inflow of EUR 391M, of which EUR 222M AuM, leading to EUR 839M YTD (EUR 485M AuM). End-February total customers’ assets amounted to EUR 51.3Bn, of which EUR 40.6Bn AuM, basically in line with end-January and therefore implying a negative performance effect in the month.

Our view: According to the CEO Albareli’s statements, February net inflows essentially came from financial advisors’ organic development contribution and growth abroad. The total result was above the approx. EUR 315M average monthly net inflow implied in our FY18E estimate of EUR 3.9Bn, stripping out the EUR 449M gathered in January.



Banca Generali (ADD)


News: February total net inflow amounted to EUR 555M, with EUR 220M into AuM (EUR 147M into wrapped products), leading the YTD result to approximately EUR 1Bn, of which EUR 704M AuM (EUR 401M wrappers).

Our view: February was another strong month after the EUR 465M gathered in January, despite a slowdown in AuM (EUR 220M, from EUR 484M one month earlier) due to more volatile market conditions. The total net inflow was above the monthly average implied in our EUR 4.5Bn FY18E estimate, equal to approximately EUR 365M (stripping out the January result).



Atlantia - Key data08/03/18 MotorwaysTarget Price (EUR) 30.2Rating ADDMkt price (EUR) 25.75Mkt cap (EUR M) 21264Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 18.7 15.8 14.6EV/Sales 6.6 6.3 6.0EV/EBITDA 11.0 10.3 9.7Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 2.2 -7.8 13.9Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 4.7 -7.4 -1.6

Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9810

[email protected]

Azimut Holding - Key data08/03/18 Asset GatherersTarget Price (EUR) 17.7Rating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 18.03Mkt cap (EUR M) 2583Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 11.9 11.7 11.0P/BV 3.8 3.7 3.5ROE 0.32 0.32 0.32Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -1.0 16.2 11.7Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 1.4 16.8 -3.5

Elena Perini, CFA - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9814

[email protected]

Banca Generali - Key data08/03/18 Asset GatherersTarget Price (EUR) 32.8Rating ADDMkt price (EUR) 27.26Mkt cap (EUR M) 3185Ratios (x) 2018E 2019E 2020EP/E 14.3 12.7 11.3P/BV 3.9 3.5 3.1ROE 0.29 0.29 0.29Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -3.9 -4.7 13.8Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -1.5 -4.2 -1.7


+39 02 8794 9814

[email protected]

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Banca Mediolanum (ADD)


News: In February, Banca Mediolanum had a total net inflow of EUR 461M (EUR 400M in Italy), boosted by positive inflows from mutual funds and unit-linked for EUR 330M (EUR +252M in Italy), and also supported by a positive contribution from non-managed assets (EUR 144M total). Total YTD net inflows amounted to EUR 628M, of which EUR 542M domestic (with EUR 526M in mutual funds, EUR 384M in Italy).

Our view: Banca Mediolanum’s February net inflows recorded a significant improvement vs. the EUR +167M posted in January, with mutual funds’ net inflows (EUR +330M, of which EUR +252M in Italy, vs. EUR +196M in January, EUR +132M in Italy), benefitting from instalment plans, indicated by management in the 4Q/FY17 results’ conference call as the main driver of the current year’s net inflows. Our EUR 5.55Bn FY18E total net inflow estimate (EUR 5Bn in mutual funds and unit-linked) incorporates an average monthly result of approximately EUR 490M (of which around EUR 445M in mutual funds) over the March – December 2018 period.



Credito Emiliano (HOLD)

Interview with Mr Gregori

News: In an interview reported by Il Sole 24 Ore, Mr Nazzareno Gregori (Credem’s Managing Director), stated that Credem is ready to evaluate business combinations: Banco di Desio could fit with Credem and he will be ready to start talks should Banco Desio be available; the missing transformation into a joint stock company is an obstacle for talks with Banca Popolare di Sondrio; Creval and Carige are not on Credem’s radar; Credem is avalilable to participate in the potential rescue of a bank only under a scheme similar to that of the Venetian banks. Mr Gregori thinks that the consolidation process may materialise in 2019. As regards the ordinary business, Mr Gregori confirmed the positive outlook provided during the conference call on FY17 results: i) loans are expected to grow by EUR 500M and NII by 3.5%, thanks to new clients on consumer finance and small business; ii) AUM are expected to growth by EUR 2.5-3Bn; and iii) NPE ratio could fall even below the current 5% and the cost of risk is expected at 30-35bps, although management admitted that current NPE flows are better than foreseen.

Our view: We see a potential involvement of Credem in an M&A process only with a bank with similar characteristics, making the process to find a partner not easy. We continue to consider Credem as one of the best-in-class in terms of asset quality (gross NPE ratio at 5.2%, in line with the European average in 2017) and profitability (FY17 ROTE at 8.7%): at current market prices, we believe that these positive characteristics are already priced in.



Banca Mediolanum - Key data08/03/18 Asset GatherersTarget Price (EUR) 8.2Rating ADDMkt price (EUR) 7.19Mkt cap (EUR M) 5322Ratios (x) 2018E 2019E 2020EP/E 14.4 13.3 11.8P/BV 2.3 2.2 2.1ROE 0.16 0.17 0.18Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -6.8 0.5 12.3Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -4.5 1.0 -3.0


+39 02 8794 9814

[email protected]

Credito Emiliano - Key data08/03/18 BanksTarget Price (EUR) 7.8Rating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 7.26Mkt cap (EUR M) 2413Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 12.6 12.3 12.0P/TBV 1.1 1.0 0.97Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -4.1 -1.3 20.8Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -1.8 -0.8 4.3

Manuela Meroni - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9817

[email protected]



Creval (HOLD)

Last Day to Exercise Option Rights

News: Today is the last day to exercise the option rights related to the EUR 700M capital increase. Today’s MF reports that part of the underwriting consortium is expecting unexercised rights for EUR 210M (worst case) of which EUR 150M could be absorbed by sub-underwriter guarantors of first allocation made up of Algebris and Credito Fondiario and Dorotheum (for EUR 55M) and other international investors.

Our view: We have a neutral stance on the stock.



Diasorin (HOLD)

FY17 Results and 2018 Guidance in Line

News: The key points of the results were:

▪ The group announced FY17 results broadly in line with our forecasts for the top line, the operating profitability and the bottom line. Net cash at 31 December reached EUR 149.3M above our estimate of EUR 108M, also thanks to the fact that the cash-out for the acquisition of the ELISA immunodiagnostic business from Siemens amounted to EUR 30M, with the remaining part (approx. EUR 17M) to be paid in three instalments in the next three years. FY17A revenue was +12% yoy and benefited from an organic growth at around 6%, from a contribution of EUR 9M related to the business acquired from Siemens and from the consolidation for the whole year of the Focus business (7 months in 2016). The forex effect was also negative for around EUR 6M, mainly attributable to the USD and the Yuan depreciation. The FY17A EBITDA margin at 37.3% was penalised by a net negative impact of EUR 3.3M related to the one-off costs for the Irish plant divestiture, only partially offset by the positive impact of the Siemens ELISA business consolidation. Below the EBIT line, we would highlight that the company posted a fiscal benefit of EUR 19M related to the 2015-17 impact of the Patent Box;

▪ Management said that in 2018 revenue and reported EBITDA are expected to grow at respectively 11% and 13% yoy at constant exchange rates (EUR/USD at 1.13). Management also confirmed the 38.5% EBITDA margin target by 2019. In addition, the company said that the patent box agreement should reduce the fiscal burden by an annual amount of around EUR 7M in both 2018 and 2019 and that the positive impact of the US tax reform is expected at USD 13M in 2018. Overall, the 2018 tax rate is expected at around 23%;

▪ The group announced a special dividend distribution of EUR 1.8/share to be paid on 31 December 2018 in addition to the ordinary dividend of EUR 0.85/share to be paid on 23 May 2018. Management specified that the extraordinary dividend distribution leaves the company’s commitment to bolt-on acquisitions unchanged.

Our view: We believe that the announced results and guidance are supportive of our current top line and operating profitability estimates. By contrast, we plan to incorporate into our forecasts the fiscal benefits expected from the US tax reform and from the patent box in Italy for 2018 and 2019. We confirm our HOLD rating on the stock.


Creval - Key data08/03/18 BanksTarget Price (EUR) U/RRating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 0.10Mkt cap (EUR M) 1Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E Neg. 1.0 0.65P/TBV 0.01 0.04 0.04Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -99.1 -99.2 -99.7Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh-99.1 -99.2 -99.8


+39 02 8794 9817

[email protected]

Diasorin - Key data08/03/18 Medical EquipmentTarget Price (EUR) 72.9Rating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 70.60Mkt cap (EUR M) 3950Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 31.9 28.4 24.7EV/Sales 6.1 5.5 4.8EV/EBITDA 15.9 14.2 12.5Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -6.7 -11.3 17.5Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -4.5 -10.8 1.5

Bruno Permutti - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9819

[email protected]

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Diasorin - 4Q/FY17 results

EUR M 4Q16A FY16A 4Q17A 4Q17E 4Q17C 4Q A/E

% 4Q A/C

% 4Q yoy

% FY17A FY17E FY17C

FY A/E %

FY A/C %

FY yoy %

Sales 156.0 569.3 168.8 166.2 168.7 1.6 0.1 8.2 637.5 634.9 637.4 0.4 0.0 12.0 EBITDA 59.0 217.3 55.7 59.0 58.9 -5.6 -5.5 -5.6 237.9 241.2 241.1 -1.4 -1.3 9.5

% on sales 37.8 38.2 33.0 35.5 34.9 - - - 37.3 38.0 0.4 - - -

EBIT 46.7 172.6 39.6 42.9 48.8 -7.7 -18.9 -15.3 184.4 187.7 193.6 -1.8 -4.8 6.8 % on sales 30.0 30.3 23.5 25.8 28.9 - - - 28.9 29.6 0.3 - - -

Pre-tax profit 44.8 168.2 37.9 42.9 47.8 -11.7 -20.7 -15.4 178.7 183.7 188.6 -2.7 -5.2 6.2 Net profit 30.2 112.4 44.2 45.3 40.8 -2.5 8.3 46.5 139.9 140.7 136.5 -0.6 2.5 24.5

NA: not available; NM: not meaningful; A: actual; E: estimates; C: Bloomberg consensus; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

ERG (ADD)

FY17 Results and BP 2018-22 Highlights

News: Through a company press release, ERG released FY17A results and 2018-22 BP highlights:

▪ FY17A EBITDA of EUR 472M or +4% yoy, slightly above our estimates of EUR 459M and consensus (EUR 459M according to Bloomberg); dividend of EUR 0.75/sh ordinary plus EUR 0.40/sh extra dividend;

▪ 2018-22 BP is focused on growth: i) 2022 EBITDA of EUR 560M, thanks to capacity growth to around 3GW (vs. current around 2GW); ii) net debt seen at EUR 1.2Bn in 2022; and iii) ordinary dividend of EUR 0.75/sh over the forecast period.

Our view: The results were slightly above expectations. We judge the business positively as it is focused largely on organic growth, solid dividend policy and deleverage from cash generation. We put our estimates and target price Under Review, maintaining our positive stance on the stock. Equity Flash Note to follow shortly.



Generali (ADD)

Press Update on Real Estate

News: Today's Il Sole 24 Ore focused on the Generali group's real estate strategy. Mr Aldo Mazzocco, Head of Real Estate, stated that the group plans a repositioning of the real estate portfolio (currently concentrated in 14 countries) towards the first 15-20 European cities with a direct portfolio management, while outside Europe (with a focus in Asia) they will use funds of funds, in order to build platforms with local players. The target is to increase the current portfolio investments (EUR 26Bn) by approx. one third (to EUR 35Bn) within 2020, supporting a pan-European asset management strategy.

Our view: We confirm our ADD rating, with EUR 17.8/share target price.



ERG - Key data08/03/18 ElectricityTarget Price (EUR) U/RRating ADDMkt price (EUR) 17.16Mkt cap (EUR M) 2574Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E U/R U/R U/REV/Sales U/R U/R U/REV/EBITDA U/R U/R U/RPerformance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 6.8 7.6 56.4Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 9.5 8.1 35.1

Roberto Ranieri - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9822

[email protected]

Generali - Key data08/03/18 InsuranceTarget Price (EUR) 17.8Rating ADDMkt price (EUR) 15.50Mkt cap (EUR M) 24208Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 10.6 10.0 9.4P/BV 0.98 0.96 0.94Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -1.3 2.0 13.0Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 1.1 2.6 -2.4


+39 02 8794 9814

[email protected]

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Hera (BUY)

M&A Marche Multiservizi

News: As reported by the press (MF and Il Sole 24 Ore), yesterday the merger was completed between Megas.Net and Marche Multiservizi, the largest multi-utility in the Marche region which is part of the Hera Group (with a 49.59%). The shareholders' meetings of the two companies active in the Marche region approved, in an extraordinary session, the merger by incorporation of Megas.Net into Marche Multiservizi. According to the press, Megas.Net has an estimated RAB of EUR 36M.

Our view: We see this news positively, allowing Hera Group to further consolidate its presence on the territory. We reiterate our BUY rating and EUR 3.6/sh TP.



INWIT (HOLD)

Bullish Conference Call

News: Regarding the business plan targets already announced on Monday evening, during yesterday’s conference call, management clearly highlighted the strong potential of an increase of the tenancy ratio, thanks to network densification needs by the existing clients, the entry of Iliad, increasing business with FWA operators and new radio players (IoT and public safety). The signing of a hosting agreement with Iliad seems imminent. The growth potential from new businesses (new sites and small cells) was confirmed and well supported by the need for more shared infrastructure among the operators. Regarding sector consolidation, management stated it is a matter of when, not if (referring to Wind Tre, in our view). Management was even bullish on the regulatory environment, expecting a possible revision of the current limits to electromagnetic emissions by 2020.

Our view: The tone of the conference call was quite bullish and overall convincing. We think that some of the potential growth opportunities, which we have often highlighted in our blue-sky valuation could materialise soon, starting from a hosting agreement with Iliad. As highlighted in our note “Many Irons on the Fire, 12 January 2018), while our base target price is EUR 6.1 per share, a blue-sky scenario (higher tenancy ratio, consolidation and regulatory review) could even reach EUR 7-8 per share. TI’s potential dilution of its controlling stake supports this scenario. We recommend keeping the stock on the radar.



Hera - Key data08/03/18 Multi-UtilitiesTarget Price (EUR) 3.6Rating BUYMkt price (EUR) 2.74Mkt cap (EUR M) 4084Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 16.0 16.0 15.7EV/Sales 1.3 1.3 1.3EV/EBITDA 6.8 6.8 6.9Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -5.8 -11.0 14.5Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -3.5 -10.5 -1.1


+39 02 8794 9822

[email protected]

Inti Merino Rimini - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9813

[email protected]

INWIT - Key data08/03/18 Telecom ServicesTarget Price (EUR) 6.1Rating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 6.08Mkt cap (EUR M) 3648Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 30.0 27.1 24.6EV/Sales 10.5 10.1 9.7EV/EBITDA 19.8 18.0 16.8Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 8.0 -3.9 38.4Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 10.6 -3.4 19.6

Antonella Frongillo - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9688

[email protected]



Iren (ADD)

4Q/FY17 Results

News: The key points of the results were:

▪ EBITDA at EUR 820.2M (+0.7% compared to EUR 814.1M at YE16). This result derives from a number of non-recurring elements in 2017 and, specifically, the capital gain linked to the sale of a turbine for the production of electricity for around EUR 14M and a provision for the new layoff scheme for a negative EUR 34M. From an operating point of view, the good performance is down to the structural improvement in the profitability of the networks business unit (+5%), thanks to the achievement of significant synergies and in the Waste sector (+24%), mainly due to a higher saturation of the waste disposal plants that resulted in a higher recovery of energy;

▪ EBIT at EUR 420.3M (-1.5% compared to EUR 426.6M at YE16), mainly due to the greater depreciation connected largely with the extension, from May 2016, of the consolidation perimeter to include Atena and the residual concessions of Società Acque Potabili, the latter acquired at the beginning of 2017;

▪ Group net profit at EUR 237.2M (+32.2% compared to EUR 179.8M at YE16). This growth is linked to the improved financial management, due also to the lower costs of liability management, to the improved results of the companies consolidated with the equity method and to lower tax costs;

▪ Net financial position of EUR 2.372Bn, declining by around EUR 85M compared to YE16. Net debt/EBITDA ratio stood at 2.9x;

▪ Proposed dividend at EUR 0.07/ share, up by 12%, already included in our estimates.

Our view: We see positively these financial results, confirming the positive trend and the guidance given during the BP presentation. We confirm our ADD rating and TP at EUR 2.8/share.


Iren - 4Q/FY results

EUR M 4Q16A FY16A 4Q17A 4Q17E 4Q17C 4Q A/E % 4Q A/C % 4QAyoy% FY17A FY17E FY18E FY18C

Revenues 1054.62 3283.02 1082.7 769.91 - 41 - 3 3697.1 3384.31 3372.71 3409 EBITDA 255.20 814.10 198.1 203.19 202.00 -3 -2 -22 820.2 825.29 858.32 858.57

% of sales 24.20 24.80 18 26.40 - NM - NM 22 24.40 25.40 -

EBIT 141.32 426.76 79.76 93.99 86.00 -15 -7 -44 420.3 434.58 466.52 450.57 % of sales 13.40 13.00 7 12.20 - NM - NM 11 12.80 13.80 -

NFC -58.45 -136.91 -22.6 -46.85 - -52 - -61 -82.4 -106.66 -81.40 - Equity JV and other 1.57 13.50 11.98 - - - - 25.00 10.00 -

EBT 84.44 303.34 75.32 59.12 - 27 - -11 369.1 352.92 395.12 377.57 Taxes -39.50 -118.15 -11.7 -20.30 - -42 - -70 -104.3 -112.93 -126.44 -

Minorities 4.10 -11.28 0 0.48 - NM - - -21.20 -21.84 -

Net income 49.04 179.8 36.0 39.30 30.00 - - - 237.2 218.79 246.85 239.5

Net debt 2457.00 2457.00 2,372 2317.18 2391.00 - - - 2,372 2317.18 2261.08 -

Capex 113.40 270.00 NA 106.80 - - - - NA 307.00 450.00 -

NA: not available; NM: not meaningful; A: actual; E: estimates; C: Bloomberg consensus; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

Iren - Key data08/03/18 Multi-UtilitiesTarget Price (EUR) 2.8Rating ADDMkt price (EUR) 2.43Mkt cap (EUR M) 3106Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 14.2 12.6 12.8EV/Sales 1.7 1.7 1.7EV/EBITDA 6.9 6.5 6.5Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -1.5 -6.5 52.2Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 0.9 -6.0 31.5


+39 02 8794 9822

[email protected]

Inti Merino Rimini - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9813

[email protected]

SAMPLE



Mediobanca (ADD)

Finalisation of the Acquisition of 69% of RAM AI

News: Mediobanca has finalised the acquisition of 69% of RAM Active Investments announced on 23 November 2017. RAM AI will be consolidated from March 2018, with a yearly impact on net fees of EUR 57.1M, on net income of EUR 19.6M and on AUM of EUR 4.3Bn. The acquisition is 2% EPS-accretive and will negatively impact on the CET1 by 30bps.

Our view: The operation is coherent with Mediobanca’s strategy to develop the asset management business.



Mediobanca - Key data08/03/18 BanksTarget Price (EUR) 10.9Rating ADDMkt price (EUR) 9.80Mkt cap (EUR M) 8636Ratios (x) 2018E 2019E 2020EP/E 12.3 11.2 10.6P/TBV 0.92 0.88 0.84Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 0.8 3.2 23.7Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 3.2 3.7 6.9


+39 02 8794 9817

[email protected]

SAMPLE



Telecom Italia (BUY)

Feedback from Conference Call

News: Yesterday’s conference call added little news on 4Q17 results and the 2018-20 business plan and was overall interlocutory over the following key topics:

▪ Competitive threats from Iliad and Open Fiber were included in the business plan and, more specifically in the guidance for stable domestic service revenues. TI assumed that the plausibly negative impact from these two competitors will be offset by other factors: i) in consumer, the mitigating factors are expected to come from FMC convergence and the second brand Kena; and ii) in wholesale, they expect some support from migration to fiber and growth from non-regulated business. Our estimates are below management’s guidance as we expect a higher downwards competitive pressure, especially in mobile service revenues;

▪ On content, management stated that, after the delay accumulated in the set-up process, the JV with Canal+ was “put aside”. He said that the company decided to move on a standalone basis and monitor strategic partnerships with different operators. He added that Canal+ could remain an interlocutory for specific co-productions and licences from catalogue. Among the potential options to enrich TI’s content package, the CEO Genish mentioned the Serie A rights, which implies ongoing talks with MediaPro. By contrast, in today’s interview with Il Messaggero, Arnaud de Puyfontaine states that the JV project is “on stand-by”, We highlight that the previous JV attempt was structured with governance and financial terms unfavourable for TI, thus highlighting Vivendi’s conflict of interest on the issue;

▪ On domestic cost efficiencies, management did not provide a specific guidance but only the indication of the addressable base (EUR 7.2Bn, representing 80% of total opex). Management confirmed ongoing negotiations with unions on labour efficiencies, including early retirements, voluntary redundancies and other potential actions;

▪ During the call, many questions were focused on the drivers behind the guidance of a cumulative equity free cash flow of EUR 4.5Bn over 2018-20 (pre-spectrum and excl. dividends). Aside from EBITDA and capex (for which the company published ad hoc indications), the company guided for: i) a 20-30% reduction of cash taxes vs. the one-off peak recorded in 2017 (which is not a proxy due to the application of the historical method); ii) all-inclusive financial items of EUR 1-1.5Bn; and iii) a working capital absorption higher than market expectations, as it will include not only operating components but also the payment of labour provisions booked in 2017 (around EUR 200M/year), other one-off payments related to litigations already booked among risks in past years and other components (such as the reversal of securitisation, VAT payments, etc.). While with different drivers, our estimates point to a cumulative equity free cash flow of EUR 5Bn over the plan period;

▪ Regarding the network spin-off, when asked about the next steps, Genish said that TI will submit a formal request to AGCOM in the next few days. He added that AGCOM should then take into account such a proposal in its three-year regulatory review to be issued by end-June, implying hopes for regulatory easing. He did not comment on possible M&A scenarios of the network company with Open Fiber;

▪ On subsidiaries, Genish firmly denied any short-term consolidation scenario between TIM Brazil and Oi and made no mention on INWIT and Sparkle, which he had defined as “important but not core” in the 3Q17 conference call. MF reports that, during yesterday’s press conference, Genish stated that INWIT is not for sale.

Our view: The short-term newsflow on TI will likely intensify over the next few months in view of the imminent entry of Iliad, the evolution of the network legal separation, AGCOM’s upcoming regulatory review and potential sport content agreements. Elliott’s entry in TI’s share capital and governance ambitions could continue to add a speculative appeal (see the separate comment in this report). While we acknowledge that the equity story remains tricky, we reiterate our BUY rating with a preference for the savings shares.


Telecom Italia - Key data08/03/18 Telecom ServicesTarget Price (EUR) 1.05Rating BUYMkt price (EUR) 0.79Mkt cap (EUR M) 15967Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 10.2 10.3 9.9EV/Sales 2.2 2.2 2.1EV/EBITDA 5.3 5.1 4.8Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 9.1 5.3 0.9Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 11.7 5.8 -12.8


+39 02 8794 9688

[email protected]

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Telecom Italia (BUY)/Mediaset (NO RATING)

Press Newsflow on Elliott Intensifies

News: While on 6 March Elliott declared a stake in TI below 5% but its intention to grow further, today’s press reports several articles on Elliot’s real stake in TI: Il Sole 24 Ore reports that Elliott’s stake in TI surpassed the 5% threshold, MF reports that it could be 9.9% via options and derivatives and mentions other sources reporting 12-14%. Il Sole 24 Ore adds that Elliott’s business plan on TI envisages the network listing. Last Monday, Elliott stated that, while not targeting the control, it aims to change some of the company's board members. In this respect, today’s press reports Elliott’s intention to change Vivendi’s five representatives in TI’s Board with new Italian directors.

In an interview with Il Messaggero, Arnaud de Puyfontaine politely minimises Elliott’s threat. He also reiterates his hope for an agreement with Mediaset. La Stampa even reports the possible scenario of a merger between TI and Mediaset, which would not be allowed by current regulation.

Our view: We positively welcome Elliott’s entry in TI’s share capital and its intention to challenge Vivendi’s direction and coordination over TI as, in our opinion, Vivendi’s conflict of interest implied governance issues and doubtful moves (such as the attempted JV with Canal+) which have contributed to cap TI’s performance.




Tenaris (U/R)

Mexico and Canada Exempted from Steel Tariffs

News:: According to the press (Bloomberg), the Trump administration decided to initially exempt Mexico and Canada from the proposed 25% and 10% steel and aluminium tariffs. Such exemption will be lost if the ongoing talks to modernise the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) should fail.

Our view: We believe that this is a positive news for Tenaris which imports from Mexico the steel bars needed by the company to feed the new seamless mill in Bay City (Texas).



Telecom Italia - Key data08/03/18 Telecom ServicesTarget Price (EUR) 1.05Rating BUYMkt price (EUR) 0.79Mkt cap (EUR M) 15967Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 10.2 10.3 9.9EV/Sales 2.2 2.2 2.1EV/EBITDA 5.3 5.1 4.8Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 9.1 5.3 0.9Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 11.7 5.8 -12.8


+39 02 8794 9688

[email protected]

Mediaset - Key data08/03/18 MediaRating NO RATINGMkt price (EUR) 3.06Mkt cap (EUR M) 3610Ratios (x) 2016E 2017E 2018EP/E NM NM NMEV/Sales NA NA NAEV/EBITDA NA NA NAPerformance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -3.4 -6.0 -20.8Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -1.0 -5.5 -31.6


+39 02 8794 9688

[email protected]

Tenaris - Key data08/03/18 Oil Equip. & ServicesTarget Price (EUR) 12.8Rating U/RMkt price (EUR) 14.16Mkt cap (EUR M) 16716Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 78.7 45.9 30.7EV/Sales 3.7 3.1 2.6EV/EBITDA 20.2 15.0 11.4Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute 5.4 12.8 -7.4Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 8.0 13.4 -20.0

Bruno Permutti - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9819

[email protected]

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Previews

Autogrill (BUY)

FY17E Preview

Results due on 8 March: After having released satisfactory preliminary sales in early February (LFL up 3.3%), despite traffic disruptions caused by hurricanes in 4Q17 in the US, we expect a solid EBITDA delivery as well, with FY17E EBITDA up 4.4% to EUR 414.2M (EUR 401M reported), once adjusted for transitory one-offs (i.e. capital gain on the French railways disposal in FY16 and stock option costs of EUR 13M in FY17E vs. EUR 7M in FY16A), and a margin improving by 20bps, mainly thanks to Europe. With D&A almost unchanged and net financial charges slightly reducing yoy, we expect a PBT and adj. net profit of EUR 159M and EUR 99M, respectively, down 6.5% and up 18.2% yoy. We also forecast a decrease in net debt to EUR 539M in FY17E from EUR 578M in FY16 and a proposed dividend of EUR 0.142/sh (1.3% yield).

Outlook and Our View: Our forecasts are aligned with the consensus and we do not see FY17 results as a real market mover while the outlook on margin evolution both in Europe (in the wake of costs savings expected from the corporate reorganisation) and in the US could play a major role in driving investor sentiment and EPS upwards, converging towards our current estimates (our FY18E EPS currently stands 23% above Factset consensus). Early qualitative indications provided by the CEO recently and strong traffic data for the Italian motorways (+5.1% YTD on Atlantia network) bodes well for an upbeat trading update. While in the short term the stock may have lost the speculative appeal related to a potential disposal of the Italian business, we remain positive on AGL due to its solid growth prospects and attractive valuation as the stock trades at a 23% discount on FY18E P/E vs its peer and main competitor SSP.


Autogrill - Key data08/03/18 Travel&LeisureTarget Price (EUR) 13.5Rating BUYMkt price (EUR) 10.44Mkt cap (EUR M) 2656Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 26.9 18.9 17.2EV/Sales 0.73 0.69 0.65EV/EBITDA 8.4 7.3 6.6Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -2.7 -8.0 25.8Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -0.3 -7.6 8.6

Luca Bacoccoli - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9810

[email protected]

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AGL - FY17 preview

EUR M FY16A FY17E FY17C FY17 E/C

yoy % FY17 yoy % FY18E FY18C

Europe 1,723.9 1,686.1 NM NM -2.20 1,690.5 NM Italy 1,042.0 1,029.0 NM NM -1.20 1,003.4 NM

Rest Of Europe 681.9 657.0 NM NM -3.70 687.1 NM

HMSH 2,794.7 2,908.5 NM NM 4.10 3,061.4 NM North America 2,357.7 2,396.2 NM NM 1.60 2,513.0 NM

International 437.1 512.3 NM NM 17.20 548.4 NM Group Sales 4,518.7 4,594.6 4,594.6 NM 1.70 4,751.9 4,702.4

EBITDA Europe 121.0 106.3 NA NA -12.10 122.0 NA on sales (%) 7.00 6.40 7.20

EBITDA HMSH 317.0 333.9 NA NA 5.30 354.8 NA

on sales 8%) 11.30 11.30 11.60 EBITDA North America 266.0 277.6 NA NA 4.40 289.2 NA

on sales (%) 11.30 11.20 11.50 EBITDA International 51.0 56.3 NA NA 10.40 65.6 NA

on sales (%) 11.70 11.50 12.00

Corp. and stock opt. costs -27.0 -39.1 NA NA 44.80 -26.1 NA Group EBITDA 411.6 401.2 401.5 -0.10 -2.50 450.7 431.4

on sales (%) 9.10 8.70 9.50 9.20 Group underlying EBITDA 396.6 414.2 NA NM 4.40 450.7

on sales (%) 8.80 9.00 9.50 EBIT 201.0 185.9 187.4 -0.80 -7.50 226.3 214.1

on sales (%) 4.40 4.00 4.10 4.80 4.60

PBT 170.3 159.3 161.4 -1.30 -6.50 204.1 182.6 Net profit 98.2 87.0 87.7 -0.90 -11.40 140.6 113.5

Adj. net profit 83.5 98.7 NM NM 18.20 140.6 NM Net debt 578.0 538.7 528.0 2.00 -6.80 458.9 517.0

A: actual; E: estimates; NM: not meaningful; NA: not available; C: Factset consensus; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

Azimut Holding (HOLD)

Results Preview

Results due on 8 March: Today, during market hours, Azimut will announce 4Q/FY17 results. After management in January indicated a preliminary net profit range of EUR 210-220M and adjusted net profit range of EUR 215-225M, company-provided consensus now points to 4Q17 revenues of EUR 204M, operating profit of EUR 69M and a net profit of EUR 59M. Our FY17E net profit estimates were below the abovementioned levels, pointing to EUR 191.3M and EUR 196.6M, respectively, we believe due to more conservative assumptions on costs, as our FY17E total revenues (EUR 802M) are even higher than the updated average consensus forecasts (EUR 796M). In January Azimut announced a dividend proposal of EUR 2.0/share (equal to a dividend yield of approximately 11% on the current share price), 50% cash and 50% in existing treasury shares. A conference call is scheduled today at 15:00 CET (Italy: +39 02 8058811; UK: +44 121 281 8003; US: +1 718 705 8794; US toll-free: +1 855 265 6959).

Outlook and Our View: Awaiting results, we confirm our HOLD rating and EUR 17.7/sh target price.



Azimut Holding - Key data08/03/18 Asset GatherersTarget Price (EUR) 17.7Rating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 18.03Mkt cap (EUR M) 2583Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 11.9 11.7 11.0P/BV 3.8 3.7 3.5ROE 0.32 0.32 0.32Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -1.0 16.2 11.7Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh 1.4 16.8 -3.5


+39 02 8794 9814

[email protected]

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S. Ferragamo (HOLD)

Results Preview

Results due on 8 March: Already reported FY17 sales came in 2% below FactSet consensus with the wholesale division impacted by the shifted orders related to the design department reorganisation and the destocking activity as well as political tensions in South Korea and the strategic rationalisation in Japan. The Retail slowdown was affected by a further like-for-like contraction leading to a -3.5% in the quarter. Both regions and products showed a negative mix in respect to potential profitability, calling for a further EBITDA margin squeeze in the period. Assuming stable D&A and financial charges weighting and even considering some EUR 16M patent box benefits, we see net income down at EUR 131M at year-end or -35%. EUR 87M of capex (of which EUR 25M as partial financing of the new logistics site in Florence) counterbalanced by a still good management of NWC needs should translate into a cash position of EUR 121M.

Outlook and Our View: We see the final quarter as a confirmation that Ferragamo is still in a transitional period, further confirmed by the recently-announced premature departure of the CEO Poletto (~18 months in charge). While awaiting news on the next CEO appointment, and given the not-particularly-cheap 29x 2018E EPS, we maintain our target price of EUR 20.7/share and our HOLD rating.


S. Ferragamo –4Q/FY17 results preview EUR M 4Q16 2016 4Q17E 4Q17C E/C % yoy % 2017E FY17C E/C % yoy % 2018 FY18C

Net Sales 424.1 1437.9 389.3* 388.5 0.00 -8.20 1394.3* 1393.5 0.00 -3.00 1415.9 1407.8

DOS 272.5 912.4 257.6* NA NM -5.50 905.3* NA NM -0.80 902.4 NA Wholesale 146.3 502.7 125.8* NA NM -14.00 465.3* NA NM -7.40 489.1 NA

Shoes 173.4 611.2 156.8* NA NM -9.60 589.2* NA NM -3.60 593.2 NA Leather goods 159.4 529 148.6* NA NM -6.80 516.0* NA NM -2.50 529.7 NA

Ready To Wear 31.2 93.6 28.1* NA NM -9.90 89.9* NA NM -3.90 91.7 NA

Europe 96.7 364.3 87.8* NA NM -9.20 351.3* NA NM -3.60 370.1 NA North America 106.1 348.3 101.8* NA NM -4.00 333.7* NA NM -4.20 332.1 NA

Asia Pacific 161.7 521.7 140.5* NA NM -13.10 510.6* NA NM -2.10 516 NA Japan 33.9 126.7 32.8* NA NM -3.20 119.5* NA NM -5.70 117.3 NA

LatAm 25.7 76.8 25.7* NA NM -0.10 78.4* NA NM 2.10 80.3 NA EBITDA 107.7 323.8 87.6 82.7 5.90 -18.70 249.4 244.5 2.00 -23.00 260.2 231.2

Margin % 25.40 22.50 22.50 21.30 122bps -289bps 17.90 17.50 35bps -462bps 18.40 16.40

Net Profit 89.8 202.3 48.7 51.1 -4.70 -45.80 131.1 133.5 -1.80 -35.20 139.3 122 Margin % 21.20 14.10 12.50 13.20 -64bps -868bps 9.40 9.60 -17bps -467bps 9.80 8.70

Net debt/- cash 7.9 7.9 -121.4 -79.3 53.10 NM -121.4 -79.3 53.10 NM -137.5 -113

Note (*) already announced. NA: not available; NM: not meaningful; C. FactSet Consensus. A: actual; E: estimates; Source: Company data and Intesa Sanpaolo Research

S. Ferragamo - Key data08/03/18 Branded GoodsTarget Price (EUR) 20.7Rating HOLDMkt price (EUR) 21.85Mkt cap (EUR M) 3688Ratios (x) 2017E 2018E 2019EP/E 31.5 27.8 25.2EV/Sales 2.5 2.4 2.3EV/EBITDA 14.1 12.7 11.4Performance (%) 1M 3M 12MAbsolute -2.5 -4.8 -22.2Rel. to FTSE IT All Sh -0.2 -4.3 -32.8

Gian Luca Pacini - Research Analyst

+39 02 8794 9818

[email protected]

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Recent Credit Research

ASPI

Solid 2017 Results, Outlook Sees Improvement

NEUTRAL Credit View Confirmed. ASPI’s 2017 results improved year-on-year in absolute terms, driven by both higher traffic and a tariff increase. EBITDA margin remained stable, while the EBIT margin improved. The FCF generation jumped in 2017, due to both a NWC reversal and lower capex yoy, but net debt increased, mainly due to the distribution of a portion of the available reserves (EUR 1.1Bn) to Atlantia. This resulted in slightly higher leverage in 2017, to 3.8x, from 3.6x at YE16. Given the solid 2017 results, we confirm our NEUTRAL Credit View on ASPI. We also confirm our HOLD recommendation on its notes, as they continue to be supported by inclusion in the ECB’s CSPP programme.

07/03/2018 Credit Research

Bedri Nuredini - Credit Research

+39 02 8794 2838 [email protected]

Maria G. Tronconi - Credit Research

+39 02 8794 1117 [email protected]


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Disclaimer Analyst certification The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear within the document, certify that:

(1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed.

Specific disclosures

1. Neither the analysts nor any persons closely associated with the analysts have a financial interest in the securities of the Companies.

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6. The research department supervisors do not have a financial interest in the securities of the Companies. This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and distributed by Banca IMI SpA Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and FINRA). Intesa Sanpaolo SpA accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report and also reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, which are both part of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, are both authorised by the Banca d'Italia and are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business. Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgment. No Intesa Sanpaolo SpA or Banca IMI SpA entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Banca IMI SpA.

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Equity Research Publications in Last 12M The list of all recommendations on any financial instrument or issuer produced by Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department and distributed during the preceding 12-month period is available on the Intesa Sanpaolo website at the following address: http://www.group.intesasanpaolo.com/scriptIsir0/si09/studi/eng_archivio_racc_equity.jsp.

Valuation methodology (long-term horizon: 12M) The Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Equity Research Department values the companies for which it assigns recommendations as follows: We obtain a fair value using a number of valuation methodologies including: discounted cash flow method (DCF), dividend discount model (DDM), embedded value methodology, return on allocated capital, break-up value, asset-based valuation method, sum-of-the-parts, and multiples-based models (for example PE, P/BV, PCF, EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, etc.). The financial analysts use the above valuation methods alternatively and/or jointly at their discretion. The assigned target price may differ from the fair value, as it also takes into account overall market/sector conditions, corporate/market events, and corporate specifics (i.e. holding discounts) reasonably considered to be possible drivers of the company’s share price performance. These factors may also be assessed using the methodologies indicated above.

Equity rating key: (long-term horizon: 12M)

In its recommendations, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA uses an “absolute” rating system, which is not related to market performance and whose key is reported below:

Equity rating key (long-term horizon: 12M) Long-term rating Definition BUY If the target price is 20% higher than the market price ADD If the target price is 10%-20% higher than the market price HOLD If the target price is 10% below or 10% above the market price REDUCE If the target price is 10%-20% lower than the market price SELL If the target price is 20% lower than the market price RATING SUSPENDED The investment rating and target price for this stock have been suspended as there is not a sufficient fundamental

basis for determining an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and target price, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock.

NO RATING The company is or may be covered by the Research Department but no rating or target price is assigned either voluntarily or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Intesa Sanpaolo is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

TARGET PRICE The market price that the analyst believes the share may reach within a one-year time horizon MARKET PRICE Closing price on the day before the issue date of the report, as indicated on the first page, except

where otherwise indicated

Equity rating allocations (long-term horizon: 12M)

Intesa Sanpaolo Research Rating Distribution (at February 2018) Number of companies considered: 109 BUY ADD HOLD REDUCE SELL Total Equity Research Coverage relating to last rating (%) 34 34 29 2 1 of which Intesa Sanpaolo’s Clients (%) (*) 70 70 44 50 100

(*) Companies on behalf of whom Intesa Sanpaolo and the other companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group have provided corporate and Investment banking services in the last 12 months; percentage of clients in each rating category

Valuation methodology (short-term horizon: 3M)

Our short-term investment ideas are based on ongoing special market situations, including among others: spreads between share categories; holding companies vs. subsidiaries; stub; control chain reshuffling; stressed capital situations; potential extraordinary deals (including capital increase/delisting/extraordinary dividends); and preys and predators. Investment ideas are presented either in relative terms (e.g. spread ordinary vs. savings; holding vs. subsidiaries) or in absolute terms (e.g. preys).

The companies to which we assign short-term ratings are under regular coverage by our research analysts and, as such, are subject to fundamental analysis and long-term recommendations. The main differences attain to the time horizon considered (monthly vs. yearly) and definitions (short-term ‘long/short’ vs. long-term ‘buy/sell’). Note that the short-term relative recommendations of these investment ideas may differ from our long-term recommendations. We monitor the monthly performance of our short-term investment ideas and follow them until their closure.

Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M)

Equity rating key (short-term horizon: 3M) Short-term rating Definition LONG Stock price expected to rise or outperform within three months from the time the rating

was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event SHORT Stock price expected to fall or underperform within three months from the time the rating

was assigned due to a specific catalyst or event

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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and the other companies belonging to the Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group (jointly also the “Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group”) have adopted written guidelines “Modello di Organizzazione, Gestione e Controllo” pursuant to Legislative Decree 8 June, 2001 no. 231 (available at the Intesa Sanpaolo website, webpage http://www.group.intesasanpaolo.com/scriptIsir0/si09/governance/eng_wp_governance.jsp, along with a summary sheet, webpage https://www.bancaimi.com/en/bancaimi/chisiamo/documentazione/normative) setting forth practices and procedures, in accordance with applicable regulations by the competent Italian authorities and best international practice, including those known as Information Barriers, to restrict the flow of information, namely inside and/or confidential information, to prevent the misuse of such information and to prevent any conflicts of interest arising from the many activities of the Intesa Sanpaolo Banking Group which may adversely affect the interests of the customer in accordance with current regulations.

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Intesa Sanpaolo Research Department – Head of Research Department: Gregorio De Felice Head of Equity & Credit Research Giampaolo Trasi +39 02 8794 9803 [email protected] Equity Research Monica Bosio +39 02 8794 9809 [email protected] Luca Bacoccoli +39 02 8794 9810 [email protected] Antonella Frongillo +39 02 8794 9688 [email protected] Inti Salvador Merino Rimini +39 02 8794 9813 [email protected] Manuela Meroni +39 02 8794 9817 [email protected] Gian Luca Pacini +39 02 8794 9818 [email protected] Elena Perini +39 02 8794 9814 [email protected] Bruno Permutti +39 02 8794 9819 [email protected] Roberto Ranieri +39 02 8794 9822 [email protected] Corporate Broking Research Alberto Francese +39 02 8794 9815 [email protected] Gabriele Berti +39 02 8794 9821 [email protected] Vanessa Colangelo +39 02 8794 3187 [email protected] Technical Analysis Corrado Binda +39 02 8021 5763 [email protected] Sergio Mingolla +39 02 8021 5843 [email protected] Research Clearing & Production Anna Whatley +39 02 8794 9824 [email protected] Bruce Marshall +39 02 8794 9816 [email protected] Annita Ricci +39 02 8794 9823 [email protected] Wendy Ruggeri +39 02 8794 9811 [email protected] Elisabetta Bugliesi (IT support) +39 02 8794 9877 [email protected]

Banca IMI SpA

Institutional Sales Catherine d'Aragon +39 02 7261 5929 [email protected] Carlo Cavalieri +39 02 7261 2722 [email protected] Stefan Gess +39 02 7261 5927 [email protected] Francesca Guadagni +39 02 7261 5817 [email protected] Federica Repetto +39 02 7261 5517 [email protected] Daniela Stucchi +39 02 7261 5708 [email protected] Marco Tinessa +39 02 7261 2158 [email protected] Mark Wilson +39 02 7261 2758 [email protected] Corporate Broking Carlo Castellari +39 02 7261 2122 [email protected] Laura Spinella +39 02 7261 5782 [email protected] Sales Trading Lorenzo Pennati +39 02 7261 5647 [email protected] Alessandro Bevacqua +39 02 7261 2904 [email protected] Equity Derivatives Institutional Sales Emanuele Manini +39 02 7261 5936 [email protected] Andrea Cisilotto +39 02 7261 5975 [email protected] Francesca Dizione +39 02 7261 2759 [email protected] Enrico Ferrari +39 02 7261 2806 [email protected] Alessandro Monti +44 207 894 2412 [email protected] Umberto De Paoli +44 207 894 2456 [email protected]

Banca IMI SpA – Head of Market Hub: Gherardo Lenti Capoduri

E-commerce Distribution

Alessandra Minghetti +39 02 7261 2973 [email protected] Alessia Galluccio +39 02 7261 2339 [email protected] Umberto Menconi +39 02 7261 5492 [email protected] Filippo Besozzi +39 02 7261 5922 [email protected] Lawrence Peirson (London Office) +44 207 894 2476 [email protected] Brokerage & Execution Carmine Calamello +39 02 7261 2194 [email protected] Customer Service Sergio Francolini +39 02 7261 5859 [email protected]

Banca IMI Securities Corp.

US Institutional Sales Barbara Leonardi +1 212 326 1232 [email protected] Greg Principe +1 212 326 1233 [email protected]

Banca IMI SpA

Largo Mattioli, 3 20121 Milan, Italy Tel: +39 02 7261 1

Banca IMI Securities Corp.

1 William Street 10004 New York, NY, USA Tel: (1) 212 326 1100

Banca IMI London Branch

90 Queen Street London EC4N 1SA, UK Tel +44 207 894 2600

SAMPLE

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

equity daily calls from italy 8 march 2018: 10:08 cet date ...91bae9eb-e507-4031-b10a-fcf84… ·...

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