eps_mega

BY SPEED POST

भारत सरकारभारत सरकारभारत सरकारभारत सरकार GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

�वुत�वुत�वुत�वुत मंऽालयमंऽालयमंऽालयमंऽालय

MINISTRY OF POWER

के� ि�के� ि�के� ि�के� ि�यययय �वुत�वुत�वुत�वुत ूािधकरणूािधकरणूािधकरणूािधकरण (आई एस ओ : 9001-2008)

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY

सेवासेवासेवासेवा भवनभवनभवनभवन, रामाकृं णारामाकृं णारामाकृं णारामाकृं णापुरमपुरमपुरमपुरम

SEWA BHAWAN, R.K. PURAM

नईनईनईनई !द# ली!द# ली!द# ली!द# ली – 110 066

NEW DELHI – 110066

No.CEA/PLG/DMLF/18th

EPS/2012/ Dated 14.03.2013

To all the Members of the 18th

Electric Power Survey Committee (as per list enclosed)

Subject: 18th

Electric Power Survey (EPS) of India (Volume-II) – draft report of EPS of

Mega Cities – regarding.

Sir/Madam,

The draft report of 18th

Electric Power Survey (EPS) (Volume-II) containing EPS of

Mega Cities has been prepared based on the input data furnished by concerned State utilities

and subsequently modified after considering their views/suggestions.

The 4th

Meeting of the 18th

EPS Committee is proposed to be held as per details given

below to finalize the draft report of the 18th

EPS of India (Volume-II).

Date : Ist April, 2013 (Monday)

Time : 3.00 PM

Venue : Conference Room, NRPC Complex,

Katwaria Sarai, New Delhi.

A soft copy of the draft report is given in the enclosed CD. You are requested to kindly

make it convenient to participate in the meeting or depute a senior officer conversant with the

subject-matter.

Encl:- As above.

Yours faithfully,

(MAJOR SINGH)

Chief Engineer (DMLF) &

Member Secretary (18th

EPSC)

Telefax No.26105546

Mobile No.9868818190

E-mail: [email protected]

List of Members of 18th Electric Power Survey Committee (EPSC)

1 Chairperson & Ex Officio Secy. to Govt. of India

Central Electricity Authority New Delhi

2 Member (Planning) & Ex Officio Addl. Secy. to Govt. of India

Central Electricity Authority New Delhi

3 Principal Adviser (Power) Planning Commission

Yojana Bhawan Parliament Street, New Delhi

Tel.No.23096579 (O) Fax No. 23096579 Email: [email protected]

4 Director General, Bureau of Energy Efficiency

R.K. Puram New Delhi.

Tel.No.26178316 (O) Fax No.26178328 Email: [email protected]

5 Adviser (Perspective Planning) Planning Commission)

Yojana Bhawan Parliament Street

New Delhi Tel.No.23096763 (O) Fax No. 23096763 Email: [email protected]

6 Adviser Electrical (RE) Railway Board

Rail Bhawan New Delhi. Tel.No.23383343(O) Fax No. 23303796

[email protected]

7 Joint Secretary,

Department of Industrial Policy & promotion Ministry of Commerce & Industry Udhyog Bhawan, New Delhi

Tel.No.23062983(O) Fax. 23061034

8 Adviser, Projects Ministry of Coal

Shastri Bhawan New Delhi

Tel.No.23386347 (O) Fax No. 23387738 Email; [email protected]

9 Joint Secretary (PP)

Ministry of Power Shram Shakti Bhawan Rafi Marg, New Delhi Ph.011-2371-0389 Email: [email protected]

10 Commissioner (B&B) Ministry of Water Resources Shram Shakti Bhawan Rafi Marg, New Delhi Tel. No.23744852,

Fax No. 23747063 Email: [email protected]

11 Chairman cum Managing Director Power Grid Corporation of India Limited. Corporate Centre, “Saudamini”, Plot No.2, Sector 29, Gurgaon 122 001 (Haryana) Tel.. No.0124-2571700 Fax No. 0124-2571760 Email: [email protected]

12 Chairman cum Managing Director NTPC Ltd. NTPC Bhawan, Core-7, Scope Complex 7 Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, Tel.. No.24360044 Fax No. 011-24361018 Email: [email protected], [email protected]

13 Chairman, Damodar Valley Corporation

DVC Towers, VIP Road, Kolkata – 700054. No.033-23557935, 23556965

Fax No. 033-23552129, 23551252

Email: devendersingh @nic.in

14 Chairman & Managing Director Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd., Core -4, Scope Complex, 7, Lodhi Road New Delhi – 110 003. No.24361562 Fax: 24366948 Email: [email protected]

15 Chairman, Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board Vidyut Bhawan Shimla 171 004 No.0177-2813563,

0177-2803600

Email: [email protected]

16 Chairman, Punjab State Power Corporation Ltd., The Mall, Patiala 147 001

No. 0175-2212005,

2214927,

Fax No. 2231712, 2213199

Email: [email protected].

17 Chairman, Tamil Nadu Electricity Board NPKRR Maligai No 800 Anna Salai Chennai 600 002 No. 044-28516362 &

28520131, Fax:28544528

Int.com 2221

Email:[email protected]

18. Chairman, Kerala State Electricity Board, Vydhuthi Bhavanam, Pattom, Thiruvananthapuram 695 004 No. 0471-2442125

09446008002

Fax No.24413028


19 Chairman, Bihar State Electricity Board Vidyut Bhawan, Bailey Road Patna 800 021 No. (0612) 2504036, 2504534,2225036

Fax No. (0612) 2504557, 2530111, 2504968,2504937


20 Chairman, Jharkhand State Electricity Board Engineering Building, HEC, Dhurwa, Ranchi 834 004 (0651) 2400807, 2400809

Fax No. (0651) 2400799

Email: [email protected], [email protected],

21 Chairman, Assam State Electricity Board, Bijuli Bhawan, Paltan Bazar, Guwahati 781 001 Ph. No.0361-2739528 (o) Fax: 2739527 Mb. No. 9864020693

22 Chairman, Meghalaya State Electricity Board, Lumgingshai, Short Round Road Shillong 793 001 No. (0364) 2590367

09436104858

Fax No.0364-2590355


23 Chairman-cum-MD,

Delhi Transco Ltd. Shakti Sadan, Kotla Road, ITO New Delhi 110 002

No.23215198 (O) Fax: 23234640 Mb. NO.9971748833 Emal; [email protected]

24 Managing Director Haryana Vidyut Prasaran Nigam Ltd. Shakti Bhawan, Sector-6, Panchkula 134 109 No.0172-2560815 Email:[email protected]

25 Chairman & Managing Director Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd. Shakti Bhawan, 14 Ashok Marg, Lucknow 226 001 No.0522-2287827,

Fax No.0522-2287785


26 Chairman &Managing Director Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Prasaran Nigam Ltd. Vidyut Bhavan, Jyoti Nagar, Janpath, JAIPUR 302 005 No. 0141-2740118,

Fax No.0141-2740168, 2740794

Emal: [email protected]

27 Managing Director Power Transmission Corporation of Uttrakhand Ltd.(PTCUL) 7-B, Lane No.1, Vasant Vihar Enclave Dehradun 248 0001 No. 0135-2768895

Fax No.2768867


28 Chairman Gujarat Electricity Transmission Corpn. Ltd. Sardar Patel Vidyut Bhavan, Race Course, Vadodara, 390 007 No.0265-2338299 Emal: [email protected]

29 Chairman &Managing Director Madhya Pradesh Power Transmission Co.Ltd. Shakti Bhawan, Ramput, Jabalpur, M.P. 482 008 No. 0761-2661234

Fax: 0761-2664141


30 Chairman &Managing Director Chhattisgarh State Power Transmission Corp.Ltd.. P.O.Sunder Nagar, Danganiya, Raipur 492 013 No. 0771-4066900,

2574000

Fax No.4028882

Email:[email protected], [email protected]

31 Managing Director

Mharashtra State Electricity Transmission Co.Ltd. C-19, E Block, Prakashganga, Bandra Kulra Complex Bandra (E), Mumbai 400 051 Tel: 022- 26474644

Fax: 022- 22619499

Emal: [email protected]

32 Managing Director APTRANSCO. Vidyut Soudha, Hyderabad 500 082. No. 040-23317657

Fax No.23320565


33 Managing Director Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Ltd., Kaveri Bhawan P.B No.9990 Bangalore 560 009. No. 080-22244556 Fax: 22213526 Email: [email protected]

34 Managing Director West Bengal State Electricity Transmission Co. Ltd., Vidyut Bhavan, 7th Floor, DJ-Block, Sector – II, Salt Lake, Kolkata 700 091 No.(033), 23591915,23371150

Fax No (033) 23373002


35. Managing Director Orissa Power Transmission Corporation Ltd., Janpath, Bhubaneswar 751 022 No.0674-2540098 Email: [email protected]

36 Chairman &Managing Director Tripura State Electricity Corporation Ltd., Vidyut Bhawan, North Banamalipur Agartala, Tripura 799 001 No.0381-2228001 Fax: 0381-2319427 Email: [email protected]

37 Principal Secretary to Govt.

Power Development Department Civil Secretariat, Jammu (J&K) 0191-2546715

2520864,

0194-2452236, 2452352

Fax No.0191-2545447,

0194-2452352

Email: [email protected], [email protected]

38 Chief Engineer Electricity Department

UT of Chandigarh Secretariat office building Sector 9 D

Chandigarh 160 009

39 Chief Electrical Engineer Electricity Department Vidyut Bhawan, 3rd Floor Panaji, Goa 403 001 Tel: 0832-2224680 / 2227009

Fax: 0832-2222354, 2426986


40 Executive Engineer Electricity Department, Daman & Diu, Power House Building, 2nd Floor, Daman 396 210 Tel: 0260-2255103, 2254745

Fax: 0260-2250889


41 Executive Engineer Electricity Department, Dadra & Nagar Haveli (UT) Silvasa 396 230 Telefax: 0260-2642338


42 Secretary (Power) Govt. of Puducherry, Beach Road Puducherry 605 001 No.0413-2334484

Telefax:


43 PCE-cum-Secretary

Energy & Power Department Govt. of Sikkim Gangtok 737 101 No. (03592) 202244

Fax No. (03592) 202927, 201148


44 Secretary (Power) A&N Administration Secretariat Port Blair 744 101. No. 03192-233113

Fax No. 03192- 233250


45 Commissioner & Secretary Deptt. of Power, Govt. of Nagaland, Nagaland Civil, Secretariat, Kohima 797 001 No. (0370) 2270110,2223149

(Mobile No.09436000299)

Fax No. 0370-2270110,2240178

46 Chief Secretary & Secretary (Power) Electricity Department Govt. of Mizoram New Secretariat Complex,

Aizwal 796 001 No.0389-2322411,2326222

Fax No. (0389) 2322745,2318572


47 Secretary (Power) Secretariat Fort Area Moti Daman, Daman - 396220

48 Secretary (Power)

Deptt. of Power Govt. of Arunachal Pradesh Itanagar 791 111 No. Mobile No. of PA 09436044711

49 Secretary (Power) Deptt. of Power Govt. of Manipur, Imphal 795 001 No. (0385) 2451562

Fax No. 0385-2440170


50 Director General, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), Or his representative

11, Indraprastha Estate Parisila Bhawan, New Delhi. Tel. No.23379861 Fax No.2337016 Email: [email protected]

51 Distinguished Fellow, The Energy Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi. Darbari Seth Block, IHC Complex, Lodhi Road Tel.No.24682100, 41504900 Fax No.24682147. Email: [email protected]

52 President

Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) 23, Institutional Area, Lodhi Road New Delhi. Tel. No.24629994 Fax N0.011-2468226 Email: [email protected]

53 Executive Director, (Cooperate Services System Operation) CESC Limited CESC House, Chowringhee Square, Kolkata – 700 001 (West Bengal) Tel. No.033-22368263 Mob. No.9830052954 Fax NO.037-022259714 Email: [email protected]

54 Managing Director,

Tata Power Company Limited,

Bombay House, 24, Homi Mody Street, Fort, Mumbai – 400 001 (Maharashtra) Tel. No.66658282 Fax NO.66658801 Emial: [email protected]

55 Vice Chairman, Reliance Infrastructure Ltd., Reliance Energy Centre, Santa Cruz (East) Mumbai – 400 055 (Maharashtra) Tel. No.022-30376522 Fax NO.022-30375577

56 Vice Chairman Torrent (Group) Limited Ashram Road, Torrent House Ahmedabad – 380 009 (Gujarat) Tel. No.079-26587651 Fax NO.079-26580048 Email: [email protected]

Contents Page No.

0. Executive Summary 1

Electric Power Survey of

1. Lucknow 6

2. Kanpur 17

3. Jaipur 28

4. Kolkata 39

5. Indore 55

6. Ahmedabad 67

7. Surat 83

8. Pune 99

9. Nagpur 119

10. Greater Mumbai 122

11. Hyderabad 142

12. Chennai 156

13. Bangalore 168

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The rapid pace of urbanization and development of infrastructure in big cities

is bound to result in the growth of electricity demand by the end of 12th plan

and during 13th plan. During the brain storming session and 1st meeting of 18th

EPS Committee need was felt to carry out separate EPS of mega cities so as

to provide basic input for planning the matching infrastructure for distribution

of electricity with developmental plans for other sectors. The electricity

consumption in domestic & commercial categories forms sizeable part of

electricity consumption in the mega cities. Therefore the availability of the

trend of growth of electricity consumption is vital input for fixing the priorities

for phased development of infrastructure of the Mega Cities for next 5 to 10

years.

To take up EPS of mega cities, it was decided that in the first instance the

cities having population around 20 lakhs and above (as per 2011 census)

may be covered. The EPS of NC Region is also being carried out separately

and EPS of NCT Delhi is already covered in volume-I of 18th EPS of India.

Therefore thirteen cities with population around 20 lakh and above except

Delhi were identified for EPS. These cities are Greater Mumbai, Kolkata ,

Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Surat, Kanpur ,

Lucknow, Jaipur, Nagpur and Indore.

As in case of EPS (Vol-I) , the EPS of mega cities has been carried out by

using partial End Use Methodology (PEUM) which is combination of trend and

End Use. The forecast of consumption in respect of Domestic & commercial

category has been undertaken by Trend analysis combined with growth rate

and other factors governing the electricity demands. The forecast for

Industrial Category as well as Others which include Industrial, Public Lighting,

Public water works, Irrigation and Bulk Supply is based on End Use details

and the programme of development furnished by state utilities.

The input data for conducting EPS has been furnished by State TRANSCOs

in coordination with DISCOMs and other concerned organizations responsible

for development of infrastructure. The requisite long term data was not

available with most of the DISCOMs as these DISCOMs were formed as a

follow up of the unbundling of SEBs. In case of Pune & Nagpur, DISCOMs

1

were able to provide actual data of only past two years. Year 2010-11 was

taken as base year for EPS of the Mega Cities. The information contained in

Master Plans of various cities have also been broadly taken into consideration

for estimating the growth in Energy requirement after assessment of the

growth rate of infrastructure and other developmental activities programmed

for implementation in next 5 to 10 years. In case of cities like Greater

Mumbai, Kolkata , Ahmedabad and Surat electricity distribution is under the

purview of more than one DISCOM. The EPS has been carried out for each

DISCOM and based on which consolidated forecast for each city has been

prepared. The report has been prepared after scrutinizing of input data and

adopting suitable growth rates and considering other factors governing the

growth of electricity demand. The suggestions/observations of State Utilities

on the draft report have also been taken into account for finalizing the report.

1. ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT(EER)

The total EER of each city has been worked out by adding the estimated T&D

losses into the projections of electricity consumption of various categories

such as Domestic, Commercial, Industrial, Public Water Work, Public

Lighting, Railways and Bulk Supply and Transmission and Distribution

Losses.

The city wise summary of total Electrical Energy Requirement (EER) is given in the Table-A.

Table-AElectrical Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bar (In MU)

(at the terminal year of 11th, 12th & 13th plan)

City 11th

Plan 12th

Plan 13th

Plan

Lucknow 4840 6796 9074

Kanpur 3046 4023 5131

Jaipur 3905 6743 10683

Ahmedabad 7862 11133 16097

Surat 8029 11053 15225

Nagpur 2311 3193 4820

Indore 2007 3325 5292

Pune 7760 12819 21111

Greater Mumbai 22107 30568 43039

Hyderabad 13528 20652 29730

Chennai 15273 21434 26236

Bangaluru 12300 16260 21219

Kolkata 15528 20006 25588

Total110635 156873 217147

2

The results of EPS reveal that in 2010-11, amongst all the above 13 cities

Greater Mumbai ranks first for highest EER followed by Kolkata and Surat.

The same pattern is expected to continue by end of 12th & 13th Plan. The

EER for these cities account for about 12% of the total EER of All India by

end of 12th & 13th Plan.

2. ANNUAL PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD (AEPL)

The APEL has been worked out on the basis of EER and annual electric load

factor(AELF) of each city. The summary of the APEL of mega cities is given

at Table-B.

Table-B

AEPL at Power Station Bus Bar (In MW) (at the terminal year of 11th,12th & 13th )

City 11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan

Lucknow 750 1119 1594

Kanpur 580 765 976

Jaipur771 1329 2103

Ahemedabad 1320 1869 2827

Surat1309 1802 2556

Nagpur 315 481 812

Indore391 621 950

Pune1173 2091 3544

Greater Mumbai 3605 4985 7225

Hyderabad 2134 3375 5039

Chennai 2291 3370 4334

Bangaluru 2090 2805 3717

Kolkata 2577 3512 4674

From the study of Table-B it is seen that the APEL of Greater Mumbai is

highest among all the cities followed by Chennai, Kolkata & Hyderabad. As

per EPS by end of 12th & 13th Plan Greater Mumbai would continue to rank

highest in APEL followed by Kolkata, Hyderbad & Chennai.

Since the cities identified for EPS are located in different regions of the

country, the occurrence of APEL would not be simultaneous as such APEL of

each city has been shown and combined APEL has not been worked out.

3

The AEPL of each city has been worked out on the basis of expected load

factor in next 5-10 years which depends upon pattern of utilization for

consumption of various categories.

3. CATEGORY-WISE FORECAST OF CITIES

The demand forecast of each city has been done for various categories of

consumption such as Domestic, Commercial, Industrial and Others (which

include Public Lighting, Public Water Works, Irrigation, Railways and Non

Industrial).

The Summary of category-wise Electrical Energy Consumption (EEC) of the

13 cities by end of 12th & 13th Plan is given in Table –C.

Table-CElectrical Energy Consumption (EEC)

(at the terminal year of 11th,12th & 13th )

Electrical Energy Consumption (EEC) in Mus Category

End of 11th Plan End of 12th Plan End of 13th Plan

Domestic 34109 48565 68712

Commercial 22278 33890 50953

Industrial 31041 43804 59340

Others 7766 11472 15355

4. PATTERN OF UTILIZATION OF ELECTRICITY

The pattern of utilization of electricity for various categories has been

analyzed and as per the results of EPS, the overall shares are expected to

undergo marginal change during next 10 years. The share of consumption in

domestic category is likely to remain in the range of 34 to 35% but slight

increase from 22% to 25% is anticipated in commercial category and marginal

reduction from 33% to 31% is likely to take place for industrial category. The

break up of the pattern of utilization of electricity for each category by end of

11th, 12th & 13th is shown in Fig-1.

4

Utilisation for 2010 11

Domestic,

35.15

Comm.,

22.78

Industrie

s, 33.71

Others,

8.37


Comm.

24.34

Domestic

34.70Industes,

32.58

Othe,

8.39


Domestic,

34.73

Comm.,

25.83

Industries,

31.45

Others,

8.00

Fig-1- Pattern of Utilisation

The increasing trend in commercial category is primarily due to rapid pace of

increase in consumption due to development of malls and other related

activities. The drop in industrial utilization is primarily due to shifting to

service industries from manufacturing units. The steady share of 8% is

primarily attributed to gradual depleting consumption in irrigation

category(which is clubbed in others category) due to rapid urbanization and

requiring development of infrastructure for street lights, public water works

and other related activities.

5. CONCLUSION

Based on the study of the input data , it is seen that by end of 11th plan 2011-

12 the total EER of these 13 cities account for 12% of total EER of All India

where as the total population is only 7.5% of All India. As per EPS the total

EER of these 13 cities account for 156873 MU by end of 12th Plan and

217147 MU by end of 13th Plan. The CAGR of EER is 7% during 12th Plan

and 13th Plan. The combined T&D losses for these cities account for 14 % as

against all India figure of 25% for 2010-11 and is expected to reduce to 11.5%

for average of all mega cities against 15.3% for All India for year 2021-22.

The projections for growth of electricity demand and reduction on T&D losses

are since base on the developmental plans and other steps either already

initiated or programmed during next 5 years by concerned State utilities.

Therefore matching growth of infrastructure for augmentation of T&D network

and other measures etc. would be necessary for meeting the targets for

reduction in T&D losses as indicated in EPS.

5

Electric Power Survey LUCKNOW

1. INTRODUCTION

Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh is situated at 123 mtrs above sea level and

generally lies between 26.30 & 27.10 North Latitude and 80.30 & 81.13 East

Longitude. Situated at the heart of Uttar Pradesh, Gomti River flows through the city,

dividing it in trans-gomti and cis-gomti regions. The main urban areas of Lucknow

are situated on the southern part of the river Gomti. As per provisional reports of

Census India, 2011, population of Lucknow was 28.15 Lakhs in year 2011. The area

of Lucknow under Municipal Corporation has increased from 146 Square Km in 1981

to 337 Sqaure Km in 1991. Due to the expansion of city limits the population density

decreased from 6904 persons per Sq. Km. in year 1981 to 4946 persons per Sq.

Km. in year 1991, but has again increased to 6653 persons per Sq. Km. in year 2001

due to higher rate of population growth.

1.1 Climate & Rainfall

The City has a humid subtropical climate with a cool dry winter from December to

February and a hot summer from April to June. The Temperature extremes vary from

about 45 degrees Celsius in the summer to 3 degrees Celsius in the winter. The city

receives about 100 cm of annual rainfall mostly from the South West monsoons

between July to September.

1.2 Industry and Economy

The city is growing rapidly in all directions but with a higher rate of growth along

Faizabad Road in the Trans Gomti area. With the radial growth of the city, the

cantonment area has gradually been engulfed and is presently more centrally

located.

There are three major industrial areas in the city namely Sarojini Nagar, Amausi &

Chinhat Industrial Area. In recent years, the city has witnessed a real estate boom

with a large number of private developers entering the market.

As a result of natural increase as well as large scale migrantion , the projected

population of Lucknow Urban agglomeration in year 2021 is expected to reach 45

Lakhs with an average annual growth rate of 5%.

According to the Master Plan 2021 of Lucknow city, there are provisions of more

land use for development activities related with recreation & transportation in

comparison to residential, commercial & Industrial activities.

6

2. POWER SCENARIO

The authority responsible for supplying electricity to the city is Madhyanchal Vidyut

Vitran Nigam Limited(MVVNL). As per data furnished by MVVNL for year 2010-11,

the total connected load of the city was 1750 MW where the total electricity

consumption of the city was 2929 MU. The city had an average annual growth of

7.4% in electricity consumption for the period 2003-04 to 2010-11.

The Peak Electric Demand of Lucknow City was 650 MW in the year 2010-11 and no

historical data was available with the concerned authorities. For the year 2010-11 the

Per Capita Electricity Consumption of Lucknow City was 1040 for U.P.

A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of Lucknow

city is given at Appendix.-L

3. CONSULTATION WITH STATE UTILITIES /AUTHORITIES

During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Lucknow city, consultations

were made with concerned Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (UPPCL) &

Lucknow Electricity Supply Administration (LESA) to discuss the pattern of electricity

consumption for various categories and steps/measures initiated to assignment

distribution network and reduce T&D losses as well as programme of development of

infrastructure for 12th & 13th Plan which would have bearing on the growth of

electricity demand of the City.

The main points discussed during the meeting are outlined below:

T & D losses of a city primarily constitutes distribution losses were indicated to be

around 26% (for the year 2010-11). UPPCL & LESA indicated that gradual reduction

of T&D losses from 25% to 19% is proposed to be achieved by 2016-17 and are to

be brought down to 14% by 2021-22 as a result of implementation of RAPDRP.

No Special Economic Zone (SEZ) has been planned in and as on Lucknow for 12th

plan period.

The proposed Lucknow Metro that will have two corridors (North South Corridor &

East West Corridor) with a total length of 34 km. Metro project is scheduled to be

completed by 2016-17 with an expected annual energy requirement of 60-70 MU.

In respect of consumption in domestic category, the growth rates of 9% for 12th

plan & 13th plan period were suggested by state authorities.

Power Availability for Lucknow is presently sufficient to meet peak electric demand

with no scheduled power cuts.

Year 2010-11 is considered as base year for the studies.

7

4. SALIENT FEATURES OF GROWTH OF INFRASTRUCTURE

The infrastructure development projects which are proposed to be implemented

in Lucknow City by 2021 (as per Master Plan) and would have impact on growth

of electricity demand for various categories:

• Lucknow Metro - The proposed Lucknow Metro with a total length of 34

Km.Metro project scheduled to be completed by 2016-17.

• Gomti Nagar Housing Scheme & Gomti Nagar Extension Scheme.

• Ashrayheen Yojna of over 8000 houses.

• Housing colonies in South Eastern and Eastern parts of the city

• Hardoi Road Residential Scheme.

With real estate boom, a large number of private sector developers have also

taken up its various projects to the city. The Electric Energy Requirement of the

city is therefore expected to increase tremendously because of rapid urbanization

coupled with increasing commercial and industrial development.

5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Based on the input data provided by UPPCL & LESA, consultations were made

regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in

next 10 years and steps initiated/planned by State Authorities were analysed. The

main categories included in EPS are domestic, commercial, industrial. The

consumption as account of Public Lighting, Public Water Works, Irrigation, Non-

Industrial & Railways have been clubbed separately and indicated as others.

As per EPS, the total electrical energy requirements of Lucknow city is estimated as

6505 MUs and 9075 MUs by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The peak electric load requirements of Lucknow city are estimated as

1142 MW and 1594 MW by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 5269

MU by end of 12th plan and 7803 MU by end of 13

th plan. The Transmission &

Distribution losses of Lucknow city are expected to reduce to 19% by end of 12th

plan and further to 14% by end of 13th

plan.

The pattern of utilization of the electrical energy in 2010-11 indicates that the

domestic sector is the biggest consumer of electricity and contributes around 45%

followed by HT Industry Category (22%). The EPS results indicate that by end of 12th

plan, the utilization in domestic category is expected to decrease to 41% and

whereas increase to 29% in HT Industry category is anticipated. By end of 13th

plan,

the utilization in domestic category is expected to slightly decrease to 39% and

increase likely to 34% in HT Industry category is envisaged.

8

The year-wise summary of the category wise forecast on EER, APEL, EEC and T&D

losses for 12th & 13

th Plan period is given at Annexure-L-1.

The details of EPS results are discussed below:-

5.1 ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT The total electrical energy requirement of the Lucknow City has been arrived by

adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level. The

total energy requirement of the city during the year 2010-11 was 4574 MUs which is

expected to increase to 5504 MUs and 9074 MUs for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22

respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement

around 8.63% and 6.88% during 12th

& 13th

plan respectively.

The pattern of actual growth of total of Lucknow City for period 2004-05 up to 2010-

11 and projection up to 2021-22 is illustrated in Fig-L-1

��

��

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

��

Fig-L-1 Electrical Energy Requirement in MUs

5.2 ANNUAL PEAK ELECTRIC LOADAccording to the data furnished by LESA, the Peak Electric Demand of City was 650

MW during 2010-11 and is expected to grow @ 9.85% and 6.88% during 12th

and

13th

plan respectively. As the result of the study of pattern of utilization of various

categories, the peak electric load is assesses to be 1142 MW and 1594 MW by the

end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan respectively. The year-wise likely

growth of Peak Electric Load of Lucknow during 12th

& 13th

Plan is shown in Fig-L-2.

��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

�

��

��

Fig-L-2 Annual peak Load in MW 9

5.3 ANNUAL ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2010-11 was 2929

MUs and is expected to increase to 5269 MU and 7803 MU with the annual growth

rate of 10.29% & 8.17% during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively.

The category wise electricity consumption for period 2004-05 to 2010-11 (active) and

projection for 12th

& 13th

Plan period is indicated in Fig-L-3.

��

��

��

��

��

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

��

Fig-L-3-Category-wise Energy Consumption in MUs

From the utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11, it can be seen that the domestic

sector is the biggest consumer of electricity (45%) in the city followed by HT Industry

sector (22%). Energy consumption pattern in the domestic sector also varies widely

across various strata of society.

The city has shown tremendous growth in electricity consumption in HT Industry

Sector. As compared to 2003-04, connected load in HT Industry sector has jumped

up to six fold in 2010-11.In contrast to HT Industry sector, growth in LT Industry

Sector has been very negligible.

The pattern of electricity consumption for year 2010-11 and projection for period

everyday 12th

& 13th

Plan is illustrated in Fig-L-4

��

��

� ��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�� !""#$%"

��

��

��

� �

��

� ��

��

��

�� !"%&$%'

��

��

��

��

��

� ��

��

��

�� !"!%$!!

Fig-L-4 Electrical Enegry Consumption Pattern

The EPS results indicate that by end of 12th

plan, the utilization in domestic category

is expected to decrease to 41% and increase to 29% in HT Industry category. By

end of 13th

plan, the utilization in domestic category is expected to decrease to 39%

and increase to 34% in HT Industry category. 10

5.4 Transmission & Distribution Losses�

Total Transmission and Distribution losses for Lucknow city were quite high during

past years. As per approved R-APDRP utilities having AT&C losses of more than

30% were to reduce AT&C losses by 3% per year and all utilities are expected to

reduce AT&C losses to 15% by 2012. It is seen that less than 1% reduction per year,

T&D losses for Lucknow city has been brought down from 31 % to 26 % only during

the time span of 2003-04 to 2010-11.

The T & D losses for Lucknow city during the year 2010-11 was 26% which is

expected to reduce to 19% and 14% by the end of 12th

plan and 13th

plan period

respectively.

The year wise likely pattern of reduction of T&D losses of Lucknow City is shown in

Fig-L-5.

��

��

�

��

� �

��

� �

��

� �

(��)*��+��,�

Fig-L-5 T&D Losses in Percentage

6. CATEGORY WISE FORECAST

6.1 DOMESTIC CATEGORY

The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 1027 MUs and 1330

MUs during the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past energy

consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major development

plans proposed in the city, the numbers of consumers are expected to increase at

the rate of 3% per year during the 12th

and 13th

plan. As per EPS the consumption

for domestic category is assessed to be 2169 MU & 3042 MU by end of 12th

& 13th

Plan respectively.

The energy consumption growth rate is of 9% and 7% during 12th

and 13th

plan

period respectively.

The year wise details of electric energy consumption in domestic category is given in

Fig-L-6.

11

��

��

�

�

��

�

��

�

��

�

��

��$ *��

�

Fig-L-6 Energy Consumption in Domestic Category in MUs

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 443 MUs and 501



plans in energy consumption, the number of consumers are expected to increase at

the rate of 5% and 3% per year during the 12th

and 13th

plan respectively. The

specific energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 2.29% & 1.94%

per year during 12th

and 13th

plan period respectively. By end of 12th & 13

th Plan the

consumption in commercial category is assessed to be 751MU & 959 MU

respectively.

The year wise growth of electricity consumption in commercial category is shown in

Fig-L-7.

��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

��$ ��)��-��

Fig-L-7 Energy Consumption in Commercial Category in MUs

The growth role 8% and 5% during 12th

& 13th

plan period respectively is envisaged

for electricity demand of commercial category in Lucknow.

12

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector was 176 MUs and 701 MUs

during the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in industrial

sector (which includes (LT & HT industries) was 25.87%.

Energy consumption in industrial sector is estimated to be 1652 MUs and 2867 MUs

by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan respectively. The rate of growth

is 15.35% and 11.67% per year during the 12th

and 13th

plan period respectively for

industrial consumption.

The actual consumption for period 2004-05 to 2010-11 projection for 12th

& 13th

Plan

is shown in Fig-L-8.

��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

�

��

��$ .��

�

Fig-L-8 Energy Consumption in Industrial Category in MUs

6.4 OTHERS (Public Lighting, PWW, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial)

The consumption in categories like public lighting, public water works, irrigation,

railways and non-industrial has been assessed separately. The total electrical

energy consumption in this category was 280 MUs and 397 MUs during the year

2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in these sectors was around

5.97%. Electrical Energy Consumption in these sectors will be 697 MUs and 936

MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13

th (2021-22) plan period respectively which

is expected to increase at the rate of 9.84% and 6.07% per year during the 12th

and

13th

plan period respectively. The higher growth rate considered for 12th

plan in this

category is primarily due to development as per Master Plan and proposed.

The year wise consumption details actual upto 2004-05 for 2010-11 and projects for

12th

& 13th

Plan is illustrated in Fig-L-9.

��

��

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

��$ /�0��

Fig-L-6 Energy Consumption in Domestic Category in MUs

13

7. CONCLUSION�

Lucknow, capital of Uttar Pradesh state is a fast growing city with its population of

about 2.81million as per 2011 census. The forecast of the city has been prepared by

broadly considering the various development plans which may takes place in future

and its impacts on different categories of Load for the 12th and 13th Plan Period.

The percentage share of utilization of Energy consumption for different categories of

Load for the year 2021-22 are Domestic–50.68%, Commercial & Miscellaneous–

17.52%, Industries–19.68% and others–11.99%.

The total Energy requirement for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the year 2010 -11

was 76292 MUs, whereas Lucknow Energy Requirement is 4574 MUs which is

5.18% of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for the Uttar Pradesh as

a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as138854 MUs ( as per 18th EPS),

whereas Lucknow Energy Requirement is 6796 MUs which is 4.7% of State’s

requirement. The total Energy requirement for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the

year 2021 -22 is estimated as 209046 MUs ( as per 18th EPS), whereas Lucknow

Energy Requirement is 9074MUs which is 4.34 % of State’s requirement.

The Peak Load for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 11082

MW, whereas Lucknow Peak Load is 700 MW which is 5.86% of State’s Peak Load.

The Peak Load for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated

as23081 MW, whereas Lucknow Peak Load is 1118 MW which is 5% of State’s

Peak Load. The Peak Load for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is

estimated as 36061 MW, whereas Lucknow Peak Load is1594 MW which is 4.4% of

State’s Peak Load.

The T & D Loss percentage for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the year 2010 -11

was 31.55% and estimated figures for 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 22% and17%

respectively, whereas for Lucknow T & D Loss percentage for the year 2010-11 was

26% and estimated figures for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 19% and14%

respectively. The estimates for T& D Losses have been made after considering the

various measures planned by Madhyanchal Vidyut Vitran Nigam Limited to curtail

the T& D Losses for Lucknow.

To achieve the growth of electricity demand and electricity consumption as projected

in the report, the state utilities and other concern organisations would need to

formulate the matching action plan to implement the polices /programmes during the

12th plan period.

14

Appendix-L

Power Map of Lucknow City

15

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

%&#&

%12!

%#'1

!%2'

!2"1

!3#!

!&#!

!#"'

2%2#

22#%

2&&!

2#44

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

4#"

&21

&1#

'33

1"2

1&1

#2'

%"%!

%"#2

%%1"

%!'4

%2''

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g%22

%3&

%&%

%''

%1#

!"2

!%'

!2!

!31

!&&

!13

2"3

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s %!#

%31

%'%

%#&

!%!

!!#

!3'

!&'

!11

2%%

22&

2&2

Irri

gati

on

%"#

%!"

%!2

%!4

%!'

%2"

%22

%24

%21

%3%

%33

%3&

Ind

ust

ries

LT

'%

1"

1#

%""

%"'

%%3

%!!

%2%

%3"

%4"

%&"

%'%

Ind

ust

ries

HT

&2"

&1'

'3#

1%&

11#

#&#

%"4'

%%!"

%%'&

%!24

%!#'

%2&3

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

!&

!1

2"

2!

22

23

%""

%"3

%"#

%%2

%%1

%!!

Bu

lk S

up

ply

""

""

""

""

""

""

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

2214

2&'#

2#1#

32!&

3&&#

4"2#

44"3

4#"1

&22%

&'1&

'!'4

'1"2

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U%%1#

%%&!

%%#!

%!!"

%!3%

%!&"

%!#%

%!#'

%!#'

%!#2

%!13

%!'"

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%!&-"

"!3-"

"!2-"

"!!-"

"!%-"

"!"-"

"%#-"

"%1-"

"%'-"

"%&-"

"%4-"

"%3-"

"

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U34'3

313"

4%1%

443&

4#%"

&!##

&'#&

'!"4

'&!1

1"'#

144#

#"'3

Al

Ld

Ft

%'3

4#

'2

'!

'!

13

'%

#'

'%

%"

'"

!2

&#

2&

&1

31

&'

&%

&&

'3

&4

1'

&4

""

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

'3-4

#'2-'

!'!-1

3'%-#

''%-%

"'"-!

2&#-2

&&1-3

1&'-&

%&&-'

3&4-1

'&4-"

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

'""

'4"

1%!

11"

#3#

%"!3

%%%1

%!"%

%!11

%21!

%312

%4#3

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c5

0.1

14

9.8

04

9.6

04

9.3

94

9.4

34

9.4

64

8.9

04

9.2

04

9.5

94

9.9

65

0.3

45

0.6

8

Co

mm

.1

7.4

41

7.3

31

7.2

61

7.1

91

7.2

11

7.2

21

7.0

21

7.1

31

7.2

61

7.3

91

7.5

21

7.6

4

Ind

us

trie

s2

0.7

12

0.8

32

1.0

02

1.1

72

1.3

42

1.5

02

1.4

12

1.1

72

0.7

82

0.4

02

0.0

21

9.6

8

Oth

ers

11

.73

12

.04

12

.14

12

.25

12

.03

11

.82

12

.66

12

.50

12

.37

12

.24

12

.12

11

.99

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

16

Electric Power Survey

KANPUR CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Kanpur, a one of the largest cities of Uttar Pradesh (U.P.), is situated on the southern bank of the River Ganga and has area of 500 Km2. The population of city is around 27.67 Lakhs (as per provisional reports of Census 2011). With the average annual growth rate 3.9%, the population of Kanpur City is expected to be around 40.58 lakhs by 2021.

1.1. Climate & Rainfall

The city experiences severe fog during the months of December and January, resulting in massive traffic and travel delays. In summer excessive dry heat is accompanied by dust storms and Loo. Rains appear between July and September in monsoon season and some rainfall is also recorded during the harvest season of March–April. The average rainfall recorded in the city is 885 mm. The climate is of tropical nature and temperature variation generally ranges from 20C to 480C during winter to summer season. Its climate is characterised by hot summer and dryness except in the south west monsoon season.


Being the main centre of commercial and industrial activities, it is also called commercial capital of the state. There are many heavy and medium scale industries located in the City which are engaged in the production of defence items, industrial machines, LML (Two Wheelers), leather and textile. Ten main industrial areas of Kanpur City are Panki Industrial Area, Dada Nagar Co-operative Industrial Estate, Govt. industrial Estate (Fazalganj )Shikshit Berojgar Industrial Area, Uptron industrial Estate , Rooma Industrial Area, Kanpur Mahayojna, Jajmau,Saresh Bagh & Fazalganj. Apart from leather and textile industry, fertilizer, chemicals, soaps, Pan Masala, hosiery and engineering industries are also located in the city. In recent years, investments in industries have gone down in the city due to shifting of tanneries and closure of sick textile units.

2. POWER SCENARIO

Kanpur Electricity Supply Company Ltd.(KESCo) formerly known as Kanpur Electricity Supply Authority (KESA) was formed on 14 January 2000 under U.P. Electricity reform act 1999. This company is registered for distribution of electricity in the area under Kanpur City (Urban). According to geographic condition the complete region of around 500 Km2.Kanpur Nagar Nigam is decided as the work area of KESCo. Boundaries of above KESCo region are upto river Ganga in North, upto river Pandu in South, upto I.I.T. campus in West and upto villages of Chakari in East.

KESCo is serving around 700 bulk consumers and 4,35,000 other consumers of domestic, commercial and power categories. They are connected to grid through 66 no. 33 KV substations and 340 no. 11 KV feeders after receiving electricity from 7 transmission substation of 220 KV and 132 KV of U.P. Power Transmission

17

Corporation Ltd. KESCo has installed total 146 power transformers (capacity 935 MVA) and 3215 distribution transformers in its distribution network.

The total electricity consumption of the city was 2130 MU in year 2010-11. The average annual growth of electricity consumption was 6.75% for the period 2003-04 to 2010-11. The Peak Electricity Demand of Kanpur City was 550 MW in the year 2010-11.

A map showing Divisions of KESCo and respective numbers of consumers is given at Appendix-K.


For the purpose of EPS of Kanpur city, the input data pertaining to electrical energy requirements, electric energy consumption, peak electric load and T&D losses etc. were obtained from KESCo. Consultations were also made with concerned state utilities of U.P. viz. Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (UPPCL) & KESCo to discuss the programme for development of infrastructure, reduction in T&D losses and steps initiated for improvement of energy efficiency and other details work out the forecast of electrical energy requirements.

The main points discussed during the consultation with the state utilities are outlined below:

AT&C loss are very high and were around 29% and it is one of the biggest challenges of revenue realisation. The T&D losses of the city primarily constitute distribution losses which were indicated to be about 27.6% (for the year 2010-11). KESCo indicated that gradual reduction of T&D losses to 19% is proposed to be achieved by 2016-17. Further expected to bring down T&D losses to 15% by 2021-22 as a result of implementation of RAPDRP.

No Special Economic Zone (SEZ) has been planned during12th plan period in and around Kanpur city.

The State Authorities suggested that growth rate of 8% for 12th plan & 13th plan period could be adopted to estimate the projection for electricity consumption in domestic category.

The historical data of Peak electric demand for the city was not available with KESCO and the latest available data was for peak demand for 2010-11 was 550 MW.

The gap between energy demand and supply is constantly rising in Kanpur and load shedding for 4 to 5 hours per day are being observed as per information given by UPPCL.

The areas around the city which are presently under various stage of development are yet to be provided with street lighting facilities.


As per the master plan 2021, provision for inner and outer ring road, new terminals, vegetable and grain market and development of new colonies in close proximity to commercial hub has been proposed. Kanpur Development Authority is also planning to develop additional 33.7 Km2 area for growth of the city and the following projects are proposed for development by 2021:

18

Hi Tech City spread over 5000 acres including 1800 acres by Sahara.

2500 acres area for development of New Kanpur City towards Bithoor Road.

Two housing projects of Uttar Pradesh Housing Board in 1350 acres and 1500 acres towards Western side of Kanpur.

5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTIONS The input data provided by UPPCL and KESCo were studied for carrying out EPS of Kanpur. Subsequently, consultations were made with concerned State utilities regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10 years. The impact of steps initiated/planned by utilities were strengthening of distribution network, improvement of energy efficiency were also broadly kept in view for carrying out EPS of Kanpur.

As per EPS, the total electrical energy requirements of Kanpur city is estimated to be 4023 MUs and 5131 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The peak electric load requirements of Kanpur city are estimated as 765MW and 976MW by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 3259 MU by end of 12th plan and 4361 MU by end of 13th plan. The T&D losses of Kanpur city could be brought down to 19% by end of 12th plan and further reduced gradually to 15% by end of 13th plan.

The pattern of utilization of the electrical energy in 2010-11 indicates that the domestic sector is major consumer of electricity and accounts for 51% of total electricity consumption followed by Industrial category is 33%, commercial category 12% and balance 5% is consumed by others such as Public water works, street lighting and irrigation. The EPS results indicate that by end of 12th plan, the utilization in domestic category is expected to remain at 50% whereas share in commercial category consumption is likely to remain at 12%. More or less, same consumption pattern is likely to continue during 13th plan period.

Annex-K-I indicate the category wise/year wise summary of electricity consumption, T&D losses, electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of utilization for 12th & 13th plan period.

The details of EPS results are discussed below:-

5.1 ENERGY REQUIREMENT

The total electrical energy requirement of the Kanpur City has been arrived by adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level and by applying suitable growth rates. The slightly higher rate of growth in the domestic, commercial and industrial category has been considered to wipe out the present shortage in the city.

The total energy requirement of the city during the year 2010-11 was 2942 MUs which is expected to increase to 4023 MUs and 5131 MUs for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would be around 5.36% and 4.9% during 12th & 13th plan respectively.

The year-wise pattern of growth in electrical energy requirements for 12th & 13th Plan period is shown in Fig K-1.

19

FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22

Series1 2942 3046 3269 3508 3672 3843 4023 4213 4412 4621 4840 5131

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Electrical Energy Requirement (MUs)

5.2 PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD

According to the data furnished by KESCo, the Peak Demand of City was 550 MW during 2010-11 and is expected to grow @ 5.6% and 4.9 % during 12th and 13th plan respectively. As the result of the study of pattern of utilization of various categories and the present shortage in the city, the peak electric load is likely to be of the order of 765 MW and 976 MW by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively.

The year wise growth of peak electric load of Kanpur city during 12th & 13th is illustrated in Fig K-2.


Series1 550 580 622 667 699 731 765 802 839 879 921 976

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Annual Electric Peak Load (MW)

5.3 ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

The total electricity consumption of the Kanpur city during the year 2010-11 was 2130 MUs which is expected to increase to 3259 MU and 4361 MU with the annual growth rate of 7.35% & 6% by the end of the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively.

The study of the pattern of electricity consumption for the year 2010-11 as furnished by KESCo revealed that major part i.e. 96% of total electricity consumption is on account of Domestic, Commercial and Industrial categories and the remaining 4% is

Fig K-1: Electrical Energy Requirement in MU

Fig K-2: Peak Electrical Load in MW

20

contributed by other categories like Public Lighting, Public Water Works, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial (bulk consumers). Therefore, EPS covers consumption forecast for four categories viz. Domestic, Commercial, Industrial and others which include Public Lighting, Public Water Works, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial (bulk consumers).

The category wise growth in electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig K-3


Others 98 106 116 126 134 142 150 159 169 179 190 201

Industries 705 775 853 938 994 1054 1117 1184 1255 1330 1410 1495

Comm. 253 273 295 319 338 358 380 403 427 453 480 508

Domestic 1074 1160 1253 1353 1434 1520 1612 1708 1811 1920 2035 2157

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Category wise Energy Consumption (MU)

The study of utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11shows that the domestic sector is the biggest consumer of electricity (51%) in the city followed by industry sector (33%). As already discussed in para 1.2 most of the yesterday’s industries are sick now and at present mostly small and medium sector industries are flourishing. Commercial consumption is around 12% .

The consumption pattern for various sectors as on 2010-11 and as envisaged by end of 12th plan & 13th plan is illustrated in Fig K-4.

Domestic,

50.44

Comm., 1

1.89

Industries

, 33.09

Others, 4.

58


Domestic

, 49.45

Comm., 1

1.66

Industrie

s, 34.27

Others, 4

.62


Domestic

, 49.45

Comm., 1

1.66

Industrie

s, 34.27

Others, 4

.62


5.4 T& D LOSSES

The T&D losses for Kanpur city remain high during past years. As per approved R-APDRP, utilities having AT&C losses of more than 30% should achieve reduction of AT&C losses at the rate of 3% per year and all utilities are expected to bring down AT&C losses to 15%. However, reduction in AT&C losses are less than 2% per year from 2003-04 to 2010-11. T&D losses for Kanpur city have reduced from 43 % to 27.61 % only.

Fig K-3:Category wise Energy in MU

Fig K-4:Consumption Pattern

21

The T & D losses for Kanpur during the year 2010-11 was 27.61% which is expected to reduce to 19% and 15% by the end of 12th plan and 13th plan period respectively.

The year wise pattern of reduction in T&D losses envisaged as per EPS is indicated in Fig K-5.


Series1 27.61 24.00 23.00 22.00 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 15.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Transmission & Distribution Losses (%)



Considering the trend of past electric energy consumption and the likely impact of major development plans proposed in the city, the growth rate of 7% and 6% per year has been adopted to assess the energy consumption in 12th & 13th Plan period. The growth rate in number of consumers is assumed to be 5% for the next 10 years respectively. The actual growth of electric energy consumption 2004-05 to 2010-11 and projected growth in 12th & 13th Plan period is indicated in Fig K-6.


Series1 1074 1160 1253 1353 1434 1520 1612 1708 1811 1920 2035 2157

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Energy Consumption Domestic (MUs)

Fig K-5: T&D Losses in Percentage

Fig K-6: Electric energy consumption in Domestic Category

22

6.2 COMMERCIAL

Considering the past energy consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major development plans in energy consumption, the number of consumers in commercial category is assumed to increase at the rate of 8% and 6% per year during the 12th and 13th plan respectively. The specific energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 3% per year during 12th and 13th plan period. The energy consumption would grow by 7% and 6% during 12th & 13th plan period respectively which includes the impact of important development projects. The pattern of growth of electrical energy consumption from 2010-11 and projection for 12th & 13th

Plan period are indicated in Fig K-7.

FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

Series1 253 273 295 319 338 358 380 403 427 453 480

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Energy Consumption Commercial & Misc. (MUs)

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector was 333 MUs and 704 MUs during the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in industrial sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was 13.32%. Keeping in view the present infrastructural development in the Kanpur city in near future, the higher growth has been adopted to cope up with the proposed development activities.

Energy consumption in industrial sector is projected to be 1117 MUs and 1495MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively which is expected to be increase at the rate of 8% and 6% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The consumption pattern in industrial category 2004-05 to 2010-11 actual and projection for 12th & 13th Plan is indicated in Fig K-8.


Series1 705 775 853 938 994 1054 1117 1184 1255 1330 1410 1495

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Energy Consumption Industrial (MUs)

Fig K-7: Electric energy consumption in Commercial Category

Fig K-8: Electric energy consumption in Commercial Category

23


The electrical energy consumption in OTHERS category was 76 MUs and 98 MUs during the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively and the CAGR for this period was around 4.25%. Electrical Energy Consumption in this category is estimated to be 150MUs and 201 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan period respectively. The growth rate is expected to 8% and 6% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The actual pattern of electrical energy consumption in these categories for period 2004-05 to 2010-11 and projection for 12th & 13th Plan period are indicated in Fig K-9.


Series1 98 106 116 126 134 142 150 159 169 179 190 201

0

50

100

150

200

250

Energy Consumption Others (MUs)

7. CONCLUSION

The Electricity Demand forecast of the city has been prepared by considering the pattern of growth of electricity consumption, steps/measures initiated for improvement of distribution network resulting in reduction in T&D losses and impact on growth of electricity demand on account of various plans for infrastructure development during the 12th and 13th Plan Period have also been broadly kept in view for studies. As per EPS, the percentage share of utilization of Energy consumption for different categories of Load for the year 2021-22 are likely to be Domestic(49%) , Commercial(12%) , Industries(34% ) and others(5%). As per 18th EPS Report Vol-I, the total Energy requirement for the U.P. as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 76292 MUs, whereas Energy Requirement of Kanpur is 2942 MUs which is 3.85% of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for the Uttar Pradesh as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 138854 MUs whereas Kanpur Energy Requirement is 4023 MUs which is 2.89% of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for the U.P. as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 209046 MUs (as per 18th EPS), whereas Kanpur Energy Requirement is 5131 MUs which is 2.45% of State’s requirement.

The Peak Electric Load for the U.P. as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 11082 MW, whereas Kanpur Peak Load is 550 MW which is 4.96% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for the U.P. as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 23081 MW, whereas Peak Electrical Load of Kanpur is 765MW which is 3.3% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for the U.P. as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as

Fig K-9: Electric energy consumption in OTHERS Category

24

36061 MW, whereas Kanpur Peak Load is 976 MW which is 2.7% of State’s Electric Peak Load. The T & D Loss percentage for the Utter Pradesh as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 31.55% and estimated figures for 2016-17 and 2021-22 are22% and17% respectively, whereas Kanpur T & D Loss percentage for the year 2010-11 was 28% and estimated figures for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 are19% and15% respectively. The estimates for T& D Losses have been made after considering the various measures planned by KESCO to curtail the T& D Losses for Kanpur.

To achieve the growth of electricity demand and electricity consumption as projected in the report, the state utilities and other concern organisations would need to formulate the matching action plan to implement the polices /programmes during the 12th plan period.

25

Appendix-K

Map showing Divisions of KESCo and respective numbers of consumers

�

��

��

��

� ��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

� ��

� ��

��

��

!%!2%��

26

./�0��

��.�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

%"'3

%%&"

%!42

%242

%323

%4!"

%&%!

%'"1

%1%%

%#!"

!"24

!%4'

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

!42

!'2

!#4

2%#

221

241

21"

3"2

3!'

342

31"

4"1

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g31

42

41

&3

&1

'!

'&

1%

14

#%

#&

%"!

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 4"

43

41

&!

&&

'"

'3

'#

13

1#

#3

%""

Irri

gati

on

"

""

""

""

""

""

"

Ind

ust

ries

LT

!2!

!4&

!1%

2"#

2!1

231

2&1

2#"

3%3

32#

3&4

3#2

Ind

ust

ries

HT

3'!

4%#

4'%

&!#

&&&

'"&

'3#

'#2

13%

1#!

#34

%""!

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

""

""

""

""

""

""

Bu

lk S

up

ply

""

""

""

""

""

""

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

!%2"

!2%4

!4%'

!'2&

!#""

2"'4

2!4#

2344

2&&!

211!

3%%3

32&%

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U1%!

'2%

'4!

''!

''%

'&#

'&3

'41

'4"

'2#

'!&

''"

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%!'-&

%!3-"

"!2-"

"!!-"

"!%-"

"!"-"

"%#-"

"%1-"

"%'-"

"%&-"

"%4-"

"%4-"

"

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U!#3!

2"3&

2!&#

24"1

2&'!

2132

3"!2

3!%2

33%!

3&!%

313"

4%2%

Al

Ld

Ft

%&%

"&

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

&"

""

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

&%-"

&&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"&"-"

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

44"

41"

&!!

&&'

&##

'2%

'&4

1"!

12#

1'#

#!%

#'&

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c5

0.4

45

0.1

14

9.7

84

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

54

9.4

5

Co

mm

.1

1.8

91

1.8

11

1.7

41

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

61

1.6

6

Ind

us

trie

s3

3.0

93

3.4

83

3.8

83

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

73

4.2

7

Oth

ers

4.5

84

.59

4.6

14

.62

4.6

24

.62

4.6

24

.62

4.6

24

.62

4.6

24

.62

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

27

Electric Power Survey JAIPUR CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Jaipur, the capital of Rajasthan lies generally between 26° 55’ N latitude and 75°

49’E longitude. Nahargarh hills and Jhalana which is a part of Aravalli hills ranges

lie in North & Eastern side of Jaipur. The city is in the northwest Indian plains,

which mostly sandy and barren soil, at an altitude of 430 meters. The slope of the

city is from North to South and then to South East. The present urbanisable area

of Jaipur covers a total of 541 Sq. Km. As per provisional reports of Census of

India, population of Jaipur in 2011 was 30.73 lakhs. and is increasing at a rate of

4.5% per annum.


The city has dry climate with hot season and has a semi arid climate with annual

mean rainfall of 673.9 mm. Winter season starts from December and last till

February followed by hot season which continues up to middle of June. During

which temperature can go as high as 49 degree Celsius.


Jaipur is a centre for both traditional and modern industries and is fast

transforming into services industry hub. There are six major industrial areas in the

city namely Vishwakarma Industrial Area, Jhotwara, Kanakpura and Bindayaka in

the North West, Sitapura and Sanganer industrial areas towards the south of the

city and Malviya Industrial area towards South East. Apart from major industries,

unorganized industries are also concentrated around the city. The household

industry of stone cutting & polishing, blue pottery also exist in the walled city of

Jaipur.

During the last few decades, the direction of growth has remained largely along

the southwest to northwest axis, mainly due to the presence of hills in the

northern and eastern side of the city, which act as natural barriers to the

expansion of the city.The planned growth of urban areas around the city has not

kept pace with population growth and has resulted in a huge urban sprawl. It is

imperative that satellite towns are created to stem the bi-directional growth and to

ensure provision of adequate infrastructure and services.

The city has the distinction of being amongst one of the earliest planned and is

also amongst fastest grouping cities of India. Jaipur has strong trading &

commerce roots due to its proximity to Delhi and excellent connectivity with the

rest of India, and its status as a natural entry-point to the other towns & cities in

Rajasthan.The proximity of Jaipur to Delhi & Agra and its rich cultural heritage

makes it a major node on the travel map in India as part of the “Golden Triangle”.

28

2. POWER SCENARIO

The electric power requirement of Rajasthan as well as the Jaipur City is met by

Jaipur Vidyut Utpadan & Prasaran Nigam Limited (JVUPNL) whereas Jaipur

Vidyut Vitran Nigam Limited (JVVNL) has the responsibility of power distribution

in Jaipur City. The city is have 220 kV, 132 kV, 33 kV grid sub stations and

associated distribution network.

The total electric consumption of the city was 3139 MU in year 2010-11. During

the last five years, the city has observed more or less steady annual growth rate

of 9 – 10 % in terms of electrical energy consumption. The Peak Demand of

Jaipur City was 695 MW in the year 2010-11.

A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of Jaipur

city is given at Appendix-J.


For the purpose of conducting EPS of Jaipur, consultations were held with

representative of JVUPNL and JVVNL on 4th January 2012 and 27

th March 2012.

The input data furnished by the JVUPNL in Jan.,2012 was analyzed and the

queries to the observation were clarified by State Utilities. The main points

related to the historical data regarding consumption of electricity in various

categories, programme of reduction in T&D losses, strengthening of T&D

network, programme of construction of new sub stations and development of

infrastructure having bearing on the electricity demand etc. were discussed.

Apart from other details/information, RVVNL furnished the list of 220/132 kV

substation proposed to be established in foreseeable future. The programme for

development of infrastructure which would have bearing on the electricity demand

on various categories of consumption as indicated in Master Plan 2025 was also

broadly taken into consideration studied for the purpose of EPS. As per the

Master Plan, the power demand by end of 12th

plan is anticipated to be 1329 MW.

The details of peak power demand by end of 12th

, 13th & 14

th plan & CAGR is

given in Table below:-

Year Demand CAGR

Present demand 650 MW

2011-12 936 MW (FY-10 to FY-12): 20%

2016-17 2329 MW (FY-12 to FY-17): 20%

2021-22 4105 MW (FY-17 to FY-22): 12%

2029-30 7579 MW (FY-22 to FY-30): 8%

Over all CAGR (FY-10 to FY-30) (FY-10 to FY-30): 13%

Keeping in view the pattern of the likely growth of the city and upcoming

infrastructural plan, the above projections in respect of peak power requirements

are very high. The electricity demand projection as per assessment of CEA are

discussed in subsequent sections of the report.

29


The Infrastructural development as proposed in Master Plan 2025 of Jaipur City

are outlined below:

• Metro - Two corridors ( Corridor-I of length 23 km in East West Direction

and Corridor-II of length 11.57 Km in North South Diection) with total of 29

stations. It is scheduled to be completed in two phases. First Phase will be

completed in 2014 with expected energy requirement of 124 MU and

second phase in 2017 with additional 43 MU energy requirement.

• Special Economy Zone – The Special Economic Zone spread over 2500

acres located close to the proposed Ring Road, near Bhankrota on Jaipur

– Ajmer Road. The SEZ is to contain dedicated zones for IT/ ITeS,

manufacturing, warehousing, logistics, special zones for auto and auto

components and institutions to cater for the demand arising out of

processing zone and Inland container depot. The project timeline is 5

years.

• Rapid Transport System -The Ring Road development corridor of 125 Km

to create infrastructure to meet growing needs of urbanization. The project

involves development of a 360m wide corridor with expressway, service

roads and a public transportation. BRTS Provision is incorporated as a

part of it.

• Residential development scheme for Prithvi Raj Nagar area, Green City

and Heritage city of new Jaipur.

• Additional Industrial area planned to be developed by RIICO – 177 hectare

area to the East of Diggi Malpura Road ( sector 60 ) , 206 hectare area to

the East of Diggi Malpura Road ( Sector – 57 ) & 170 hectare area to the

North of the city in proximity to C bypass and Transport Nagar.


As already discussed in Section 5 of report, the input data provided by JVUPNL

and JVVNL was examined followed by consultations with state utilities regarding

the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and expected electricity demand

in next 10 years and steps initiated/planned for meeting the power requirements

matching with development of infrastructure. The EPS of Jaipur city has been

undertaken after taking into consideration the above aspects.

As per EPS, the total electrical energy requirements of Jaipur city is estimated as


plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-22)

respectively. The peak electric load requirements of Jaipur city are estimated as

1329 MW and 2103 MW by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The total electricity consumption is likely to be of the order of

6023MU by end of 12th plan and 9553MU by end of 13

th plan. The Transmission

30

& Distribution losses of Jaipur city are expected to be brought down to 10.68% by

end of 12th

plan and further reduced gradually to 10.58% by end of 13th

plan as a

results of steps/measures initiated/programmed by state utilities.

The study of pattern of utilization of the electrical energy for 2010-11 indicates

that the domestic sector is the biggest consumer of electricity in the city (39%)

and being an industrial town, consumption of electricity in this sector is also very

high (28%). It is followed by Commercial sector is the next one consuming about

19 % of electricity. The EPS results indicate that by end of 12th

plan, the utilization

in domestic category is expected to slightly decrease to 37%. The electricity

Consumption pattern is likely to remain more or less same during 13th

plan also.

The category wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption, T&D losses,

electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of utilization for 12th

& 13th

plan

period is given at Annexure –J-1.

The brief details of the results of Jaipur City are discussed below:-


The total electrical energy requirement of the Jaipur City has been arrived by

adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level.

The total energy requirement of the city during the year 2010-11 was 3519 MUs

which is expected to increase to 6743 MUs and 10683 MUs for the year 2016-17

and 2021-22 respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of

energy requirement would be around 11.44% and 9.64% during 12th

& 13th

plan

respectively.

��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

Fig-J-1: Electrical Energy requirement in MUs


According to the data furnish by JVUPNL and JVVNL, the Peak Demand of City

was 695 MW during 2010-11 and as per EPS, the same is expected to grow. As

31

the result of the study of pattern of utilization of various categories, the peak

electric load will be 1329 MW and 2103 MW by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13

th

(2021-22) plan respectively.

��

��

�

�

��

�

��

��

Fig-J-2: Annual Electric Peak Load in MW

5.3 ENERGY CONSUMPTION

As per inputs proposed by state utilities, the total electricity consumption of the

Jaipur city during the year 2010-11 was 3139 MUs which is expected to

increase to 6023 MU and 9553 MU with the annual growth rate of 11.47% &

9.67% during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively.

��

��

��

��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

Fig-J-3: Category-wise Energy Consumption in MUs

From the utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11, it can be seen that that the

domestic sector is the biggest consumer of electricity in the city (39%).Being an

industrial town, consumption of electricity in this sector is also very high (28%).

Commercial sector is the next one consuming about 19 % of electricity.

32

The pattern of electricity consumption during 2010-11 as furnished by state

authorities and expected pattern by end of 12th &

13th

plan is given below:

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�� !""#$%"

��

��

��

��

��

� ��

��

��

�� !"%&$%'

��

��

��

��

��

� ��

��

�

�� !"!%$!!

Fig-J-4: Utilisation Pattern of Electrical Energy

5.4 TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES

T & D losses of Jaipur City were indicated to be about 17.93% in 2004-05 and the

target level of state utilities is to bring it down to about 10.58% by 2021-22. The

following schemes were planned to achieve this target and implementation of

same have been taken up in 2008-09:-

• Segregation of Urban and Rural feeder.

• Commission of 11 KV Overhead line to Underground line.

• Installing 11/0.4 KV distribution transformers thus developing LT less

system.

• Conversion of LT line to ABC thus reducing theft & improving losses.

• Changing of obsolete service line by armoured cable.

• Changing defective single phase and three phase meters so that energy is

recorded properly.

• Installation of separate transformer like FRP for agriculture consumers to

metered consumers by converting flat rate consumers to metered

consumers.

The above schemes are being implemented in phased manner by awarding Turn

Key contract. As a result of this, the T&D losses have already followed declining

trend and the losses in 2011-12 are 10.78 % which are proposed to bring down to

level of 10.68% & 10.58% by the end of 12th plan and 13

th plan period respectively.

��

��

� ��

� ��

� ��

� �

� ��

� �

� ��

� ��

� ��

(��)*��+��,�

Fig-J-5: T&D Losses in Percentage

33


(A) DOMESTIC CATEGORY

As per input data made available to CEA for the purpose of EPS, the electrical

energy consumption in domestic category was 704 MUs and 1220 MUs during

the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past energy

consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major

development plans proposed in the city, the numbers of consumers are expected

to increase at the rate of 8% & 6% per year during the 12th

and 13th plan

respectively.

Fig-J-6: Energy Consumption in Domestic Category in MUs

The energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 11.32% and

10.16% during 12th and 13


(B) COMMERCIAL


MUs during the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past

energy consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major

development plans in energy consumption, the number of consumers are

expected to increase at the rate of 10% and 8% per year during the 12th

and 13th

plan respectively.

��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

�

��

�

��$ ��)��-��

Fig-J-7: Energy Consumption in Commercial Category in MUs

��

��

�

�

��

�

��

�

��

�

��$ *��

34

The energy consumption would grow by 13.31% and 10% during 12th

& 13th

plan

period respectively which includes the impact of important development projects.

(C) INDUSTRIAL



sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was 8.58%. Keeping in view the

present infrastructural development in the Jaipur city in near future, the higher

growth has been adopted to cope up with the proposed development activities.

��

��

�

�

��

�

��

��$ .��

Fig-J-8: Energy Consumption in Industrial Category in MUs

Energy consumption in industrial sector will be 1496 MUs and 2270 MUs by the

end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan respectively which is expected to be

increase at the rate of 9.04% and 8.69% per year during the 12th

and 13th

plan


(D) OTHERS (Public Lighting, PWW, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial)

Categories included in others are public lighting, public water works, irrigation,

railways and non-industrial.The electrical energy consumption in others was 209

MUs and 446 MUs during the year 2004-05 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual

CAGR in these sectors was around 13.48%. Electrical Energy Consumption in

these sectors will be 970 MUs and 1529 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and

13th

(2021-22) plan period respectively which is expected to increase at the rate

of 12.60% and 6.97% per year during the 12th and 13


��

��

�

�

�

�

��

��

�

��

��$ /�0��

Fig-J-9: Energy Consumption in Others Category in MUs

35

7. CONCLUSION

The Electricity Demand forecast of the city has been prepared by considering the

pattern of growth of electricity consumption, steps/measures initiated for

improvement of distribution network resulting in reduction in T&D losses and

impact on growth of electricity demand on account of various plans for

infrastructure development during the 12th and 13th Plan Period have also been

broadly kept in view for studies. As per EPS, the percentage share of utilization of

Energy consumption for different categories of Load for the year 2021-22 are

likely to be Domestic (39.4%) , Commercial (20.83%) , Industries (23.76% ) and

others (6%). As per 18th

EPS Report Vol-I, the total Energy requirement for

Rajasthan as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 44836 MUs, whereas Energy

Requirement of Jaipur is 3519 MUs which is 7.85% of State’s requirement. The

total Energy requirement for Rajasthan as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is

estimated as 77907 MUs whereas Jaipur Energy Requirement is 6743 MUs which

is 8.65% of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for Rajasthan as a

whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 110483 MUs (as per 18th EPS),

whereas Jaipur Energy Requirement is 10683 MUs which is 9.66% of State’s

requirement.

The Peak Electric Load for Rajasthan as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 6859

MW, whereas Jaipur Peak Load is 695 MW which is 10.61% of State’s Peak

Load. The Peak Load for Rajasthan as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated

as 13886 MW, whereas Peak Electrical Load of Jaipur is 1329MW which is 9.5%

of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for Rajasthan as a whole for the year 2021

-22 is estimated as 19692 MW, whereas Jaipur Peak Load is 2103 MW which is

10.7% of State’s Electric Peak Load. The T & D Loss percentage for Rajasthan as

a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 31.55% and estimated figures for 2016-17 and

2021-22 are22% and17% respectively, whereas Jaipur T & D Loss percentage

for the year 2010-11 was 28% and estimated figures for the year 2016-17 and

2021-22 are19% and15% respectively. The estimates for T& D Losses have

been made after considering the various measures planned by JVVNL to curtail

the T& D Losses for Jaipur.

To achieve the growth of electricity demand and electricity consumption as

projected in the report, the state utilities and other concern organisations would

need to formulate the matching action plan to implement the polices /programmes

during the 12th

plan period.

36

Appendix-J

Power Map showing Transmission and Distribution network of City

37

1/�0��

��1�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

%!!"

%23!

%4"&

%&1#

%1#4

!%"&

!2!"

!44&

!1%&

2%"!

23%'

2'&3

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

413

&'!

''!

111

%"!%

%%!2

%!2&

%24#

%3#4

%&34

%1"#

%##"

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g3&

4!

&"

&1

'3

'#

1&

#2

%""

%"1

%%'

%!&

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s %!&

%3%

%41

%'&

%#3

!%3

!24

!41

!13

2%2

233

2'1

Irri

gati

on

&%

&%

&%

&"

&"

&"

4#

4#

4#

41

41

41

Ind

ust

ries

LT

!&4

!#&

22!

2'!

3%&

341

4"3

443

&%"

&'%

'21

1%!

Ind

ust

ries

HT

&!4

&'4

'!#

'11

14%

#%#

##!

%"'!

%%4'

%!4"

%24"

%341

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

""

""

%!3

%!#

%24

%3"

%3&

%4%

%4'

%&3

Bu

lk S

up

ply

!%2

!34

!1!

2!3

2&2

3"'

34&

4%"

4'%

&3"

&3"

1"2

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

2%2#

2313

21##

32&&

3###

43#4

&"!2

&&"!

'!21

'#21

1&2"

#442

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U21"

3!%

3'"

4!4

&""

&41

'!"

'11

1&!

#32

%"!2

%%2"

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%%"-1

"%"-'

1%"-'

&%"-'

3%"-'

!%"-'

"%"-&

1%"-&

&%"-&

3%"-&

!%"-&

"%"-4

1

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U24%#

2#"4

32&#

31#%

44##

&%43

&'32

'21#

1%""

111%

#&43

%"&12

Al

Ld

Ft

%4'

'1

4'

1"

4'

1!

4'

13

4'

1&

4'

11

4'

#"

4'

#!

4'

#3

4'

#&

4'

#1

41

""

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

4'-'

14'-1

"4'-1

!4'-1

34'-1

&4'-1

14'-#

"4'-#

!4'-#

34'-#

&4'-#

141-"

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

&#4

''%

1&2

#&4

%%"4

%!%3

%2!#

%34&

%4#&

%'3#

%#"%

!%"2

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c3

8.8

53

8.5

13

8.6

23

8.6

93

7.9

23

8.3

33

8.5

33

8.7

23

8.9

03

9.0

83

9.5

93

9.4

1

Co

mm

.1

8.6

01

9.2

71

9.8

12

0.3

42

0.4

32

0.4

42

0.5

22

0.5

92

0.6

62

0.7

22

0.9

62

0.8

3

Ind

us

trie

s2

8.3

52

7.8

92

7.2

22

6.5

62

5.3

52

5.0

52

4.8

42

4.6

32

4.4

12

4.1

92

4.1

92

3.7

6

Oth

ers

14

.20

14

.32

14

.36

14

.41

16

.31

16

.17

16

.11

16

.06

16

.03

16

.01

15

.25

16

.00

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

38

Electric Power Survey KOLKATA CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Kolkata earlier known as Calcutta, the capital of West Bengal, is situated on the bank of

river Hooghly. The city had once housed the capital of India during a major part of the

British colonial rule till the year 1911 before shifting of capital to Delhi. Kolkata Metropolitan

Area (KMA), the largest urban agglomeration in eastern India, extends over 1886.67 sq.

km. and envelopes 3 Municipal Corporations (including Kolkata Municipal Corporation), 39

Municipalities and 24 Panchayat Samitis. Kolkata City has evolved over a period of more

than 300 years.

KMA has a population of 14.77 million, according to the 2001 Census, as against the total

urban population of West Bengal of 22.5 million (population of KMA as per 2011 census is

yet to be ascertained by KMDA). An important demographic attribute of KMA is that its

average residential density is the highest among the metropolises in India at around 8000

persons per sq. km. Though the city of Kolkata has been witnessing sharp decline in the

decadal population growth because of the near saturation of the city, population in the

municipal towns immediately surrounding Kolkata City and a part of the KMA has been

growing at very higher rates.


Kolkata is located in the eastern part of India and forms the southern part of the state of

West Bengal. KMA has spread linearly along the banks of the river Hooghly. The whole

area of city is in the Ganges Delta with the average elevation being 5 meters above MSL.

The city has a sub-tropical climate with hot & humid summer & monsoon. The maximum

temperature in summer reaches to about 41 °C. The temperature in the winter drops to a

minimum of 9 °C. Kolkata generally receives a good rainfall during monsoons.

1.2 Economy & Industry

KMA accounts for three-fourth of the organized sector industries and employment. KMA

houses the major financial, commercial, educational, health, research and other

organizations that cater to the requirements of not only KMA but also the entire state. As

the State is poised for rapid pace of industrialization and KMA has to play an important role

in facilitating the process of industrial growth. It is not only to provide livelihood to the

future population but also support the emerging economic activities within KMA like the IT

industries and specialized financial services. The necessary infrastructure and facilities are

to be created through planned interventions such that the growth in population and

economic activities could be sustained in a healthy and environment- friendly manner.

2. POWER SCENARIO

For the purpose of EPS of Kolkata city, the whole area covered under the KMA is taken

under consideration. A map of the KMA is enclosed in Appendix – Ko-I. At present, the two authorities/power utilities responsible for powering the KMA are namely

Calcutta Electric Supply Corporation Ltd. (CESC) and West Bengal State Electricity

39

Distribution Company Limited (WBSEDCL). CESC is supplying in the Kolkata city along

with a portion in the KMA. WBSEDCL is responsible supplying the power to the remaining

portion of the KMA along with the rest of the state. Presently CESC is catering the major

portion of the electrical load (around 64%) of KMA and the rest is served by WBSEDCL.

The historical data for period 2007-08 to 2010-11 as well as the forecast from 2011-12 to

2021-22 for CESC, WBSEDCL and Kolkata are at Annexure Ko-I, Ko- II & Ko- IIIrespectively.

The total energy consumption of the KMA area for the year 2010-2011 was 12800 MU with

a peak load of 2437 MW .The category wise break-up of the supply of power by both the

utilities namely CESC & WBSEDCL are as follows.

UTILITY WISE SUMMARY OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION (MU) DURING 2010-11

CESC WBSEDCL

CATEGORY Energy

Consumption

in MU

% of Total

Energy

Consumption

in MU

% of TotalTOTAL

1. Domestic 3493 69% 1564 31% 5056

2. Commercial 1605 73% 584 27% 2189

3. Public

Lighting

200 84% 37 16% 237

4. Public Water

Works

307 84% 58 16% 365

5. Irrigation &

Dewatering

0 0% 10 100% 10

6. Industries

i) LT Industries 788 92% 63 8% 852

ii) HT Industries 1561 44% 2010 56% 3571

7. Traction 102 25% 301 75% 403

8. Bulk Supply

to non-

industrial

consumers

116 100% 0 0% 116

TOTAL 8173 64% 4627 36% 12800

3. CONSULTATION WITH STATE UTILITIES/ AUTHORITIES

During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Kolkata, consultations were made

with concerned power utilities of West Bengal viz. CESC, WBSEDCL and WBSETCL,

WBSETCL coordinated with CEA for the purpose of EPS and functioned as the nodal

agency for the state utilities.

As CESC is supplying power in the area which is fully covered under the KMA the requisite

input data was made available to CEA. The data for WBSEDCL portion’s corresponding

figures were added for arriving to the requisite figures/database for the KMA.

It will also be worth mentioning that the CESC’s distribution network is mainly through

underground cabling while WBSEDCL’s distribution network is mainly overhead.

40

Following main points were deliberated during the discussions with the concerned

authorities/utilities:

a. A power map indicating the location of the sub-stations and transmission /

distribution lines through which the power is received or supplied etc. clear

demarcation in the power map for showing the areas being served by CESC and

WBSEDCL is required for EPS. The utilities expressed inability to provide such

demarcated power map however, A general map indicating locations of substations

and T&D network was supplied for KMA which is enclosed in Appendix- Ko-II. b. “City Development Plan for Kolkata Metropolitan Area” up to 2025 published by

KMDA provided to CEA covered only the decade old statistics which was not

subsequently revised or updated .Statistics for the recent past particularly the

distribution of urban land use for various category i.e. residential, industrial etc. may

not hold good as per present scenario. But the utilities informed that the revised

statistics, as asked for, might not be available at present as no such project has

been under taken by the concerned authority to update the earlier published report.

c. Regarding irrigation load, CEA opined that considering the urban nature of the area

under consideration for Kolkata, energy requirement in the irrigation sector should

be reduced gradually. But during discussion it appeared that though the

requirement of this category is very low, still there is a possibility of rising in

requirement, only quantity wise not in percentage wise, due to multi-cropping option

being availed by the farmers. Also it was confirmed that earlier all Irrigation load

were not metered but presently that problems are over now.

d. The concerned utilities indicated that the T&D loss figures during the projected

years for the KMA should be little lower in comparison to the loss figure of whole

West Bengal. The reason behind this is that the loss in the metropolitan area should

never be more or equal with the loss of the whole state. The T&D loss figures were

re-checked and rectified in line with the spirit of discussions made on the issue.

e. In reply to queries by the CEA about the very low requirement in the LT Industry

category and comparatively very high requirement in the HT Industry category in

WBSEDCL area. WBSEDCL representative clarified that the figures shown under

the respective category are correct as in their method of classification of load in

those category have been made in that fashion. A marginal growth in Industry

category has been indicated by the utilities. During discussion it appeared that

practically there is very little scope for growing new industries in the KMA however

the industrialization is growing fast beyond KMA only due to obvious reason.

f. CEA enquired about the higher growth shown in the Public Lighting Category. In

reply to this, the utilities clarified that the growth in the category is estimated in the

higher side considering the beautification programme of the city undertaken by the

present state government which justified the growth rate.

g. On the issue of the low Load Factor considered for projection purpose , the reason

citied by state utilities is the lower growth in the Industrial Category compared to the

Domestic category.

h. CEA observed that the energy consumption wise overall growth in whole of West

Bengal is more or less 10%,whereas the projected growth of Kolkata mega-city

which is being considered as only around 5% need to be looked into. WBSETCL &

WBSEDCL representatives confirmed that in the Kolkata only the load in Domestic

category is expected to grow tremendously along with some sharp increase in the

Commercial category but there is a downward trend in Industrial category which in

41

turn downgrading the over all growth percentage. CEA enquired whether

prospective industries were considered by state utilities for projecting the load

growth for Industrial category, their representatives of the utility confirmed the same.


It is indisputable that if the projected population has to be provided a decent urban living

and the supportive economic activities, the need for augmentation of infrastructural

facilities is a sine-qua-none. Notwithstanding the problems and constraints, Kolkata

envisions becoming a world class city and attending competitive age in this era of

globalization. Accordingly the City Development Plan (CDP) outlines the future

metropolitan structure comprising the different hierarchy of towns, identifies new

settlement areas and also new industrial growth centers. Factors likely to affect Elc

• ‘Vision 2025’ – a perspective plan for 25 years for KMDA covers master plan for

traffic & transportation, water supply, drainage, sewerage & sanitation. The vision is

to provide sustained and improved quality of life through basic urban services in an

inclusive manner and create enabling environment for enhanced economic

activities by utilizing available resources effectively, in an eco-friendly manner while

conserving heritage.

• A metropolitan structure spatial distribution of centers -2025 has been formulated by

KMDA which consists: Metro Center – Kolkata, Metro Sub-Center – Howrah, 5 nos.

Trans Metro City System- 15 nos. Major Centers. Consequently, several

infrastructural development plans are considered in and around Kolkata city which

will enhance the energy requirements in future:

• Nine Industrial growth centres have been identified in the Kolkata Metropolis Area

which would be the centres of economic activities in the metropolis generating

production and employment opportunities. WBIDC has already taken actions for

setting up a number of industrial growth centres. Rubber Park, Food Park, Apparel

Park and Poly Park have already been identified. In the east bank of river Ganga,

WBIDC has also set up a number of industrial growth centres namely Garment Park

(Canal South Road), Gems & Jewellery Park and Toy Park in the Sector-V of Salt

Lake and the Industrial Park at Kalyani. Salt Lake and Nonadanga area within the

East Kolkata are going to be the centres for IT Industries. All these will require

sizable amount of electricity in future.

• Development of residential areas in metro centers, Trans-metro City Systems at

Kalyani, Baruipur etc. are in progress. In addition, 14 Nos. of new settlement areas

have been identified which will require on an average of 400 to 500 acres of land to

accommodate the projected population. Other private real estate developers are

also investing in different housing projects which are coming very fast.

• Numbers of call centre (IT hubs) have already come up in and around Kolkata and

many more are coming.

42

• Big malls of international standards along with the multiplexes are also coming up in

good numbers & very fast not only in Kolkata but also in its amalgamated area

under KMA.

• More & more roads are being illuminated & decorated through Public Lighting.

• The Ganga Action Plan (GAP) launched by Govt. of India is already operative in

KMA area and more thrust is giving to establish and operate more & more sewage

treatment plants so that no untreated sewage is discharged into the river. More

Electric Crematoriums are also being installed in the KMA.

• The area under consideration is also having four major railway junctions namely

Howrah, Sealdah, Kolkata & Shalimar. More & more long distance trains are being

introduced regularly as well as numbers of local EMU trains are regularly being

increased to cover more & more urban areas with increased commuters.

• Presently Metro Railway is operating only in one route i.e. from Dumdum to Garia

covering around 22 km distances. Metro Railway in another 5 routes namely i)

Saltlake to Howrah Maidan (around 14.7 km), ii) Joka to BBD Bag (around 16.7

km), iii) Noapara to Barasat (around 18.5 km), iv) Baranagar to Barrackpore, and v)

Garia to Airport (around 32 km) has been planned and work is in progress in few of

them. All these projects are included in the Mass Rapid Transport System (MRTS)

in KMA and are the part of East-West Metro (Airport – New Dasnagar) and North-

South Elevated MRTS (Barrackpore-Joka).

• Kolkata being the centroid of KMA, influences its surrounding area for its better

opportunities for employment, improved infrastructure, educational and cultural

centers etc. All the sectors undoubtedly require uninterrupted and quality power

supply. To meet the gap between the demand and supply and manage the power

system in an integrated manner, long term as well as short term planning is

necessary. Besides planning, setting up of generating units to provide the required

energy, it is also necessary to consider strengthening of Transmission and Sub-

transmission systems, installations of transformers etc.

5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION

To cope up with the fast paced development, proper planning for power is required. From

the above few instances, it is obvious that energy requirement in the metropolis area is

bound to increase reasonably because of normal population growth coupled with

commercial and industrial growth. While carried out the Power Survey works for the

Kolkata under the Power Survey of Mega Cities for 18th EPS the above mentioned facts

were kept under consideration.

Based on the input data provided by CESC and WBSEDCL and the consultations

regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in next

10 years and steps initiated/planned by State Authorities were analysed. The EPS of

Kolkata mega-city has been undertaken after taking into consideration the above aspects.

43

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirement of Kolkata mega-city is estimated to be

20006 MU and 25588 MU by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The peak load requirements of Kolkata mega-city is estimated to be 3512

MW and 4674 MW by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively.

The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 17470 MU by end of 12th

plan and 22471 MU by end of 13th plan. The Transmission & Distribution losses of

Kolkata mega-city are expected to be brought down to 12.68% by end of 12th plan and

further reduced gradually to 12.18% by end of 13th plan.

The pattern of utilization of the electric energy in 2010-11 indicates that the domestic

category contributes around 40% followed by industrial category around 35%, commercial

around 17% and others around 8%. The EPS results indicate that by end of 12th plan, the

utilization in domestic category is expected to marginally increase to around 41% whereas

industrial category will decrease to around 32% in. By end of 13th plan, the utilization in

domestic category is likely to marginally increase again to around 42% and again with

slight decrease in industrial category to around 31%.

The details of EPS results are described below:-


The total electrical energy requirement of the Kolkata mega-city has been arrived by

adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level (Fig Ko-1).

The total energy requirement of the city during the year 2010-11 was 14756 MU which is

expected to increase to 20006 MU and 25588 MU for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22

respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would

be around 5.2% and 5.04% during 12th & 13th plan respectively.

�

�

��

�

��

�

CESC 9376 9741 10214 10690 11204 11746 12321 12927 13567 14241 14954 15708

WBSEDCL 5380 5787 6122 6476 6852 7262 7685 8078 8493 8930 9392 9880

KOLKATA 14756 15528 16335 17167 18056 19008 20006 21005 22059 23171 24346 25588

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22


According to the data furnish by WBSETCL, the Peak Demand of City was 2116 MW

during 2007-08 which rose to around 2437 MW by 2010-11 (Fig Ko-2) and is expected to

grow with a CAGR of 6.28% and 5.88% during 12th and 13th plan respectively in spite of

4.82% actual CAGR from 2007-08 to 2010-11. As the result of the study of pattern of

utilization of various categories, the peak electric load will be around 3512 MW and 4674

MW by the end of 12th and 13th plan respectively.

Fig Ko-1: Electrical Energy Requirement in MU

44

�

�

�

�

�

CESC 1657 1727 1819 1913 2014 2122 2236 2354 2478 2609 2749 2897

WBSEDCL 780 850 928 1003 1085 1177 1276 1362 1454 1553 1661 1777

KOLKATA 2437 2577 2747 2916 3099 3299 3512 3716 3932 4162 4410 4674

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2010-11 was 12800 MU and is

expected to increase to 17470 MU and 22471 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22

respectively (Fig-Ko-3) with the CAGR of 5.32% & 5.25% respectively.

��

��

��

��

��

�

�

��

�

��

��

From the utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11, it can be seen that the highest energy is

consumed by domestic category (39.5%) followed by industries (34.55%), commercial

(17.1%) and other remaining categories (8.85%).

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th & 13th Plan would be 41.04% & 41.88% in

domestic, 18.18% & 19.19% in commercial, 31.91% & 30.40% in industrial sector and

8.87% & 8.53% in others (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation,

traction and bulk supply) for 12th & 13th plan respectively. Utilization for the end of 12th &

13th plan is given below in chart

Fig K-2: Peak Electrical Load in MW

Fig Ko-3: Category wise Energy in MU

45


The T & D losses for KMA during the year 2010-11 was 13.26% which is expected to

reduce to 12.68% and 12.18% by the end of 12th plan and 13th plan period respectively

(Fig-Ko-5). As indicated by the power utilities, attempt will be made to further reduce the

technical losses, if possible, by carrying out the T&D system augmentation and

unaccounted energy which would be brought down by administrative steps to reflect the

true level of electricity consumption by consumers.

�

��

��

��

��

��

CESC 12.83 12.73 12.63 12.53 12.43 12.33 12.23 12.13 12.03 11.93 11.83 11.73

WBSEDCL 14.00 13.90 13.80 13.70 13.60 13.50 13.40 13.30 13.20 13.10 13.00 12.90

KOLKATA 13.26 13.17 13.07 12.97 12.87 12.78 12.68 12.58 12.48 12.38 12.28 12.18

2010-

11

2011-

12

2012-

13

2013-

14

2014-

15

2015-

16

2016-

17

2017-

18

2018-

19

2019-

20

2020-

21

2021-

22



The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 4123 MU and 5056 MU

during the year 2007-08 and 2010-11 respectively (Fig-Ko-6). Considering the past energy

Fig Ko-4:Consumption Pattern

Fig Ko-5: T&D Losses in Percentage

46

consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major development plans

proposed in the city, the energy consumption in this category is expected to increase with

CAGR of 5.99% to 7170 MU and of 5.81% to 9410 MU during end of 12th and 13th plan


�

�

�

�

CESC 3493 3693 3897 4111 4337 4574 4823 5085 5359 5648 5951 6270

WBSEDCL 1564 1673 1790 1915 2050 2193 2347 2487 2637 2795 2962 3140

KOLKATA 5056 5366 5687 6026 6387 6767 7170 7572 7996 8443 8913 9410

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 1810 MU and 2189 MU

during the year 2007-08 and 2010-11 respectively (Fig-Ko-7). Considering the past energy


in energy consumption in the category is expected to increase with CAGR of 6.40% to

3176 MU and of 6.35% to 4311 MU during the end of 12th and 13th plan respectively.

�

�

��

�

��

�

��

�

��

�

CESC 1605 1715 1810 1911 2018 2130 2249 2374 2506 2646 2793 2949

WBSEDCL 584 631 682 736 795 859 927 1002 1082 1168 1262 1363

KOLKATA 2189 2346 2492 2647 2813 2989 3176 3376 3588 3814 4055 4311

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector (both LT & HT) was 3925 MU and

4423 MU during the year 2007-08 and 2010-11 respectively (Fig-Ko-8). The actual CAGR

in industrial sector was around 4% during the period from 2007-08 to 2010-11. Keeping in

view of the present trend and ground reality, it appeared that in the forth coming years

there will be practically no scope for higher rate of growth, which may even go down a little

bit, in this sector inside the KMA. Considering all the facts and after detail deliberation with

concerned power supplying utilities it is expected that the energy consumption in industrial

Fig Ko-6: Electric energy consumption in Domestic Category

Fig Ko-7: Electric energy consumption in Commercial Category

47

sector will increase with CAGR of 3.93% to 5575 MU and of 4.03% to 6832 MU during the

end of 12th and 13th plan respectively.

�

�

�

�

�

�

CESC 2350 2345 2422 2495 2584 2681 2786 2898 3019 3147 3286 3434

WBSEDCL 2073 2178 2288 2404 2526 2654 2788 2901 3018 3140 3266 3398

KOLKATA 4423 4523 4710 4899 5110 5335 5575 5799 6037 6287 6552 6832

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22


Categories included in others are public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railways

and non-industrial/bulk supply. The total electrical energy consumption in these categories

was 987 MU and 1132 MU during the year 2007-08 and 2010-11 respectively (Fig-Ko-9).

The actual CAGR in these sectors was around 4.66% during the period from 2007-08 to

2010-11. It is expected that the electrical energy consumption in these sectors will

increase with CAGR of 5.38% to 1550 MU and of 4.91% to 1918 MU during the end of

12th and 13th plan respectively.

�

�

��

�

��

CESC 726 748 795 834 872 913 956 1002 1050 1101 1155 1213

WBSEDCL 406 500 517 533 549 576 593 614 635 658 681 704

KOLKATA 1132 1248 1311 1367 1421 1489 1550 1616 1686 1759 1836 1918

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

7. CONCLUSION

Kolkata, the capital of West Bengal state is the oldest metropolitan city in India. The

Kolkata, as a city itself, has been witnessing sharp decline in the decadal population

growth because of the near saturation of the city. However, population in the municipal

towns immediately surrounding Kolkata City and a part of the KMA has been growing at

very higher rates. The forecast of the city has been prepared considering the various on

going as well as proposed development plans which will take place in the days to come.

Fig Ko-8: Electric energy consumption in Industrial Category

Fig Ko-9: Electric energy consumption in OTHERS Category

48

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th & 13th Plan would be 41.04% & 41.88% in

domestic, 18.18% & 19.19% in commercial, 31.91% & 30.40% in industrial sector and

8.87% & 8.53% in others (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation,

traction and bulk supply) for 12th & 13th plan respectively.

The total energy requirement of the West Bengal state as a whole for the year 2010-11

was 42202 MU including KMA’s energy requirement of 14756 MU which was around 35%

of the total requirement of the state. The estimated total energy requirement of the West

Bengal state as a whole for the year 2016-17 is 70352 MU including KMA’s estimated

energy requirement of 20006 MU which would be around 28% of the total requirement of

the state. Similarly the estimated total energy requirement of the West Bengal state as a

whole for the year 2021-22 is 103283 MU including KMA’s estimated energy requirement

of 25588 MU which would be around 25% of the total requirement of the state.

The total peak load of the West Bengal state as a whole for the year 2010-11 was 6833

MW including KMA’s peak load of 2437 MW which was around 36% of the total peak load

of the state. The estimated total peak load of the West Bengal state as a whole for the year

2016-17 is 11793 MW including KMA’s estimated peak load of 3512 MW which would be

around 30% of the total peak load of the state. Similarly the estimated total peak load of

the West Bengal state as a whole for the year 2021-22 is 17703 MW including KMA’s

estimated peak load of 4674 MW which would be around 26% of the total peak load of the

state.

The total T & D losses of the West Bengal state as a whole for the year 2010-11 was

19.7% whereas KMA’s T & D losses was 13.26%. The estimated total T & D losses of the

West Bengal state as a whole for the year 2016-17 is 16.60% whereas KMA’s estimated T

& D losses is 12.68%. Similarly the estimated total T & D losses of the West Bengal state

as a whole for the year 2021-22 is 13.58% whereas KMA’s estimated T & D losses is

12.18%.

49

Appendix – Ko-I

MAP OF THE KOLKATA METROPOLITA AREA (KMA)

50

Appendix – Ko- II

POWER MAP OF KOLKATA METROPOLITAN AREA (KMA)

51

Annexure

KoI

NameofPublicUtility/SEB/Licensee/Elect.Deptt.:C.E.S.C.Ltd.

NameofState/UT:WestBengal

Category:SUMMARYOFFORECAST

Category

wiseEnergyConsumption

2010-1

12011-1

22012-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72017-1

82018-1

92019-2

02020-2

12021-2

2

Domestic

3493

3693

3897

4111

4337

4574

4823

5085

5359

5648

5951

6270

Commercial&Misc.

1605

1715

1810

1911

2018

2130

2249

2374

2506

2646

2793

2949

PublicLighting

200

211

227

246

265

287

309

334

361

390

421

455

PublicWaterWorks

307

320

331

342

354

367

380

393

407

421

436

451

Irrigation&Dewatering

00

00

00

00

00

00

L.T.Industries

788

855

915

979

1047

1121

1199

1283

1373

1469

1572

1682

H.T.Industries

1561

1490

1507

1516

1537

1560

1587

1615

1646

1678

1714

1752

Traction

102

102

106

109

112

116

120

124

128

132

136

141

BulkSupplyto

NonindustrialConsumer

116

116

130

137

140

144

147

151

155

159

163

167

TOTALCONSUM.Mkwh

8173

8501

8924

9351

9811

10298

10814

11359

11935

12542

13185

13866

T&DLossinMKwh

1203

1240

1290

1340

1393

1448

1507

1568

1632

1699

1769

1843

T&DLoss(%

)12.83

12.73

12.63

12.53

12.43

12.33

12.23

12.13

12.03

11.93

11.83

11.73

EnergyRequirementinMKwh

9376

9741

10214

10690

11204

11746

12321

12927

13567

14241

14954

15708

LoadFactor(%

)64.60

64.4

64.10

63.80

63.50

63.20

62.90

62.70

62.50

62.30

62.10

61.90

PeakLoad(M

W)

1657

1727

1819

1913

2014

2122

2236

2354

2478

2609

2749

2897

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Domestic

42.73

43.44

43.67

43.96

44.21

44.42

44.60

44.77

44.90

45.03

45.13

45.22

Commercial

19.64

20.17

20.29

20.44

20.57

20.69

20.79

20.90

21.00

21.10

21.18

21.27

Industrial

28.75

27.58

27.14

26.68

26.34

26.03

25.76

25.51

25.29

25.09

24.92

24.76

Others

8.88

8.80

8.90

8.92

8.89

8.87

8.84

8.82

8.80

8.78

8.76

8.75

TOTAL

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

18THELECTRIC

POWERSURVEYFORECAST

ENERGYCONSUMPTION,ENERGYREQUIREMENTANDPEAKLO

AD

CATEGORYWISE&YEARWISESUMMERYOFFORECAST

(in

MU

)

52

Annexure

Ko

II

NameofPublicUtility/SEB/Licensee/Elect.Deptt.:WestBengalState

Electricity

DistributionCo.Ltd.

NameofState/UT:WestBengal

Category:SUMMARYOFFORECAST

InMU

Category

wiseEnergyConsumption

201011

201112

201213

201314

201415

201516

201617

201718

201819

201920

202021

202122

ENERGYCONSUMPTION

MUs

1.Domestic

1564

1673

1790

1915

2050

2193

2347

2487

2637

2795

2962

3140

2.Commercial&Misc.

584

631

682

736

795

859

927

1002

1082

1168

1262

1363

3.Publiclighting

37

38

40

41

43

45

46

48

50

52

54

56

4.PublicWaterWorks

58

61

64

67

71

74

78

82

86

90

95

99

5.Irrigation

10

12

13

14

16

17

19

20

22

24

25

27

LTIndustries

63

68

73

78

83

89

95

100

105

110

116

122

HTIndustries

2010

2110

2216

2327

2443

2565

2693

2801

2913

3030

3151

3277

7.Railwaytraction

301

390

400

410

420

440

450

464

477

492

506

522

8.BulkSupplyto

NonIndustrialConsumer

Total(EnergyConsumption)

4627

4983

5277

5589

5920

6282

6655

7004

7372

7760

8171

8605

T&DlossesMU

753

804

845

887

932

980

1030

1074

1121

1170

1221

1274

T&Dlosses%

14.00

13.90

13.80

13.70

13.60

13.50

13.40

13.30

13.20

13.10

13.00

12.90

EnergyRequirement

MU

5380

5787

6122

6476

6852

7262

7685

8078

8493

8930

9392

9880

AnnualLoadFactor

%78.74

77.72

75.30

73.71

72.09

70.44

68.76

67.71

66.68

65.64

64.55

63.47

PeakLoad

MW

780

850

928

1003

1085

1177

1276

1362

1454

1553

1661

1777

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Domestic

33.79

33.58

33.92

34.27

34.62

34.91

35.26

35.51

35.77

36.01

36.25

36.49

Commercial

12.63

12.67

12.92

13.17

13.43

13.67

13.93

14.30

14.67

15.05

15.44

15.83

Industrial

44.81

43.71

43.37

43.02

42.67

42.25

41.90

41.42

40.94

40.46

39.98

39.49

Others

8.77

10.04

9.79

9.54

9.28

9.17

8.91

8.77

8.62

8.47

8.33

8.18

TOTAL

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

Industries

2073

2178

2288

2404

2526

2654

2788

2901

3018

3140

3266

3398

Others

406

500

517

533

549

576

593

614

635

658

681

704

18THELECTRIC

POWERSURVEYFORECAST

ENERGYCONSUMPTION,ENERGYREQUIREMENTANDPEAKLO

AD

CATEGORYWISE&YEARWISESUMMERYOFFORECAST

53

.��/�/

��.��2

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

4"4&

42&&

4&1'

&"!&

&21'

&'&'

'%'"

'4'!

'##&

1332

1#%2

#3%"

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

!%1#

!23&

!3#!

!&3'

!1%2

!#1#

2%'&

22'&

2411

21%3

3"44

32%%

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g!2'

!3#

!&'

!1'

2"1

22%

24&

21!

3%%

33!

3'4

4%%

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 2&4

21%

2#4

3%"

3!4

33%

34'

3'4

3#!

4%%

42"

44"

Irri

gati

on

%"

%!

%2

%3

%&

%'

%#

!"

!!

!3

!4

!'

Ind

ust

ries

LT

14!

#!2

#1'

%"4'

%%2"

%!%"

%!#3

%212

%3'1

%4'#

%&1'

%1"2

Ind

ust

ries

HT

24'%

2&""

2'!2

2132

2#1"

3%!4

3!1"

33%&

344#

3'"1

31&4

4"!#

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

3"2

3#!

4"&

4%#

42!

44&

4'"

411

&"4

&!3

&3!

&&2

Bu

lk S

up

ply

%%&

%%&

%2"

%2'

%3"

%33

%3'

%4%

%44

%4#

%&2

%&'

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

%!1""

%2312

%3!"%

%3#3"

%4'2%

%&41"

%'3'"

%12&2

%#2"&

!"2"!

!%24&

!!3'%

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U%#4&

!"33

!%24

!!!'

!2!3

!3!#

!42'

!&3!

!'42

!1&#

!##"

2%%'

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%%2-!

&%2-%

'%2-"

'%!-#

'%!-1

'%!-'

1%!-&

1%!-4

1%!-3

1%!-2

1%!-!

1%!-%

1

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U%3'4&

%44!1

%&224

%'%&'

%1"4&

%#""1

!"""&

!%""4

!!"4#

!2%'%

!323&

!4411

Al

Ld

Ft

%&#

%!

&1

'#

&'

11

&'

!%

&&

4%

&4

'1

&4

"2

&3

43

&3

"3

&2

44

&2

"!

&!

4"

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

&#-%

!&1-'

#&'-1

1&'-!

%&&-4

%&4-'

1&4-"

2&3-4

3&3-"

3&2-4

4&2-"

!&!-4

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

!32'

!4''

!'3'

!#%&

2"##

2!##

24%!

2'%&

2#2!

3%&!

33%"

3&'3

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c3

9.5

03

9.8

04

0.0

54

0.3

44

0.6

04

0.8

24

1.0

44

1.2

44

1.4

14

1.5

84

1.7

44

1.8

8

Co

mm

.1

7.1

01

7.4

01

7.5

51

7.7

21

7.8

81

8.0

31

8.1

81

8.3

81

8.5

81

8.7

91

8.9

91

9.1

9

Ind

us

trie

s3

4.5

53

3.5

43

3.1

73

2.7

93

2.4

93

2.1

83

1.9

13

1.5

83

1.2

73

0.9

73

0.6

83

0.4

0

Oth

ers

8.8

49

.26

9.2

39

.15

9.0

48

.98

8.8

78

.80

8.7

38

.66

8.6

08

.53

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

54

Electric Power Survey INDORE CITY

1. GENERAL

Indore is located 190 km west of the state capital of Bhopal and in the western

region of Madhya Pradesh, on the southern edge of the Malwa plateau. It lies on the

Saraswati and Khan rivers, which are tributaries of the Shipra River and has an

average elevation of 553.00 meter above mean sea level. It is located on an

elevated plain, with the Vindhyas range to the south. Apart from Yashwant Lake,

there are many lakes that supply water to the city including Sirpur Tank, Bilawali

Talab, Sukhniwas Lake and Piplyapala Talab. According to the 2011 Indian census,

Indore city has a population of 1,960,631. The average annual growth rate of

population is around 2.85% as per the statistics of census 2001.

1.1 CLIMATE

Indore has humid subtropical climate� !�� three distinct seasons viz. summer,

monsoon and winter are observed. Summers start in mid-March and can be

extremely hot in April and May. The daytime temperatures can touch 40 °C on more

than one occasion. Average summer temperature may go as high as 36–39 °C but

humidity is very low. Winters are moderate and usually dry. Lower temperatures can

go as low as 4 °C-6 °C on some nights. Usually the temperature ranges between 8

to 26 °C during winters. Rains are due to southwest monsoons. The typical monsoon

season goes from 15 June till mid-September, contributing 32–35 inches of annual

rains. 95% of rains occur during monsoon season.

1.2 INDUSTRY & ECONOMY

Indore is often referred as the commercial capital of Madhya Pradesh with a bulk of

its trade coming from Small, Mid and Large scale manufacturing & service industries.

These industries range from Automobile to Pharmaceutical and from Software to

Retail and from Textile trading to Real estate. Major industrial areas surrounding the

city include the Pithampur Special Economic Zone and the Sanwer Industrial belt.

Pithampur is also known as the Detroit of India. Pithampur industrial area houses

many big auto companies. Prominent among these are Force Motors, Volvo Eicher

commercial, Avtec, Mahindra 2 wheelers Ltd. While the Textile manufacturing and

Trading is the oldest business to contribute to economy, the Real Estate has

emerged very fast in past few years. National Real Estate Players DLF Limited,

Suncity (ZEE Group), Omaxe, Sahara, Parsvnath, Ansal API, Emaar MGF have

already launched their residential projects in Indore. These projects are generally on

the Indore bypass. Besides these, there are several small and medium size software

development firms in Indore. Pithampur, the suburb industrial area of Indore houses

production plants of various Pharmaceutical companies.

55

2. POWER SCENARIO

The distribution of supply of power to the Indore City is under purview of by M. P.

Paschim Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd. (MPPKVVCL), since 2004 after unbundling

of Madhya Pradesh Electricity Board. The total electricity consumption of the city

was 1218 MU in year 2009-10. During the last five years, the city has observed more

or less steady annual growth rate of 8 -10 % in terms of electrical energy

consumption. The peak electric load of the city was 330 MW during the year 2009-10

and 360 MW during 2010-11. A map showing grid sub stations and transmission &

distribution system of Indore is given at Appendix-I.

3. CONSULTATION WITH STATE UTILITIES / AUTHORITIES

During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Indore city, the consultation

were made with concerned state utilities of Madhya Pradesh viz. M. P. Paschim

Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd. (MPPKVVCL), Indore, Madhya Pradesh Power

Transmission Corporation Corporation (MPPTCL) and Indore Development Authority

(IDA), Indore in April 2012.

The main points discussed during the consultation with the state organizations

outlined below:

• T & D losses of a city primarily constitutes distribution losses were indicated to

be 25% (for the year 2010-11). MPPKVVCL indicated that gradual reduction

of T&D losses from 25% to 15% by 2013-14 and to further bring down to 9%

by 2021-22 as a result of implementation of RAPDRP. There is a provision to

convert existing distribution network in to HVDS and ground cabling which

would facilitate in reducing commercial losses.

• In respect of consumption in domestic category, the growth rate of 8% and

7% for the 12th

plan and gradual declining trend of 7% for 13th plan

respectively was suggested by state authorities.

• The impact on electricity demand due to major development projects like

Super Corridor, Sahara Township, BRT, Metro Rail, etc which are to be

completed during 12th and 13

th plan to be taken into consideration. It was

indicated that load of 200MW was to be spread in three years (20012-13 to

2014-15) under domestic and commercial category in the proportion of

40%:60%.

• The pattern of energy consumption of Indore city during last few years has

remained uneven which can not be adopted as a basis for demand

forecasting. The correlation between electricity demand and future

development of city in all categories of consumers needs to be assessed.

• The exact impact on electricity demand due to steps/measures already

taken/proposed by MPPKVVCL cannot be qualified. Therefore, the estimation

of likely growth in electricity demand due to upcoming projects during 12th

&

13th

plan cannot be realistically worked out and it was suggested that by

56

higher growth be considered during 12th

plan and gradual reduction in 13th

plan.

• The historical data of Peak demand for the city was not available with

MPPKVVCL and it was indicated that peak demand of city is 360 MW for the

year 2010-11.

• Regarding consumption indicated in Public Water Works category the

representative of MNPPKVVCL clarified that most of the pumping stations are

located outside city boundary. On account of implementation of Narmada

Phase III the water requirement is expected to be doubled by 2021 which will

however result in growth in electricity demand in PWW category.

• In respect of consumption in irrigation category, It was indicated that

agriculture land is gradually being converted to commercial due to which

consumption in irrigation category is expected to decrease during 12th

plan &

beyond. The representative of MPPKVVCL indicated that no industry with

contracted demand above 1 MW is located in city as I.T industries are located

outside city limits.

• As regard traction category it was informed that traction load is being met

beyond city limits.

• No SEZ is proposed within city limits. The Pithampur Industrial area and

Industrial belt are located beyond city limits and same may not be considered

in EPS of Indore city.

• Based on the data furnished around 200 MU of energy requirement is

indicated to be hidden demand for year 2009-10 which could not be met due

to shortage of power as well as inadequate sub transmission & distribution

which is being augmented.

• A medical hub which is coming up to Indore is part of super corridor project.

As regards bulk power consumption due to institutions the state authorities

clarified such development like IIT is outside city limits and need not be

considered as part of demand growth of city.


As per Master Plan of Indore (2008) for year 2021 the salient features of the

development of infrastructure to meet the growing demand in various fields is as

under:-

• Proposal for development of Super corridors by 2021 in Phases.

- MR – 10 Sukhalia to ujjain road

- RW – 2 Ujjain road to Airport

It would result in development of institutional campus, corporate office,

hotels, park, knowledge based industries, software technology park and

shoping malls.

• Bus rapid transport system of 86 km in phase I

57

- To assist bus rapid system a transit corridor is proposed as

feeder network which will develop growth in commercial

activities.

• Water requirements to double by 2021 and requirement of drinking

water is expected to be 638 MLD by 2021.

The brief information about Electric Power Stations present & programmed as

per Master Plan is as under:

Electric Substation Present Proposed 400kV 1No 1No

220/132/33kV 1No 1No

132/33kV 2Nos 5No

33/11 25 Nos 16No.

11/0.4kV 2900 No.s

(LT Distribustion Line)

Details not available

The details of existing & proposed sub stations as per furnished by

MPPKVCCL is as under:

Electric Substation Present Proposed 400kV 1No 2 Nos.(Pithampur & PGCIL)

220kV 4No 2No

132kV 6Nos 7No

33/11 58 Nos 12No.

Distribution

Transformers

6000 6000

The Centre for Advanced Technology (CAT) is bulk consume with 12 MW

sanctioned load and drawn around 6 MW of power. BY end of 12th

plan, the

electricity demand of CAT is indicated to be around 40 MW.

5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTIONSBased on the input data provided by MPPTCL and MPPKVVCL and the

consultations regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and

electricity demand in next 10 years and steps initiated/planned by State Authorities

were analysed. The EPS of Indore city has been undertaken after taking into

consideration the above aspects.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirements of Indore city is estimated to be


plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The peak load requirements of Indore city is estimated to be 621 MW

and 950 MW by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-22) respectively.

The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 2781 MU by end of

12th plan and 4691 MU by end of 13

th plan. The Transmission & Distribution losses

58

of Indore city are expected to be brought down to 16.36% by end of 12th

plan and

further reduced gradually to 11.36% by end of 13th plan.

The pattern of utilization of the electic energy in 2009-10 indicates that the domestic

category contributes around 46% followed by industrial category 23%, commercial

17% and others14%. The EPS results indicates that by end of 12th

plan, the

utilization in domestic category is expected to decrease to 42% whereas increase to

26% in industrial category. By end of 13th

plan, the utilization in domestic category is

likely to reduce to 40% with slight increase to 27% in industrial category.

Annex.I indicated the category wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption,

T&D losses, electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of utilization for 12th

& 13th

plan period.



The total electrical energy requirement of the Indore City has been arrived by adding

T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level. The slightly

higher growth in the category of domestic, commercial and industrial has been

considered to wipe out the present shortage in the city.


which is expected to increase to 3325 MUs and 5292 MUs for the year 2016-17 and

2021-22. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would

be around 10.38% and 10.12% during 12th

& 13th

plan respectively.

�5� 67 �9�. ��5(.5��

�

�

�

�

�

��- ��-��$$$:

Indore 1818 2007 2218 2452 2712 3002 3325 3655 4008 4396 4823 5292

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-1 : Electrical Energy Requirement in MU


According to the data furnish by MPPKVVCL, the Peak Demand of City was

197 MW during 2005-06 which rose to around 330MW by 2009-10 and is expected

to grow @ 9.46% and 8.87% during 12th

and 13th

plan respectively in spite of 9%

actual growth from 2003-04 to 2009-10. As the result of the study of pattern of

utilization of various categories and the present shortage in the city, the peak electric

59

load will be 621 MW and 950MW by the end of 12th (2016-17)and 13

th (2021-22)plan

respectively.

��;��( .��/�*.5��

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

��$$$:

Indore 357 391 428 470 515 565 621 677 737 802 872 950

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-2 : Peak Electric Load in MW


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2009-10 was 1218

MUs and is expected to increase to 2781 MU and 4691 MU during the year 2016-

17 and 2021-22 respectively with the annual growth rate of 12.52%.

��

��

��

��

��

�

�

��

�

��

�

��

�

��

�

��

Fig. I-3 : Electrical Energy Consumption in MU

From the utilisation pattern for the year 2009-10, it can be seen that the highest

energy is consumed by domestic category (46%) followed by industries (23%),

commercial (17%) and other remaining categories (14%).

60

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th & 13

TH Plan would be 41.91% & 40.4% IN

domestic, 16% & 15.73% in commercial, 25.5% and 25.87% in industrial sector and 16.36%

in others (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk

consumers) for 12th & 13

th plan respectively. Utilization for the end of 12

th % 13

th plan is

given below in chart

.

Fig. I-4 : Energy Consumption Pattern

5.4 TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LOSSES

The T & D losses for Indore during the year 2009-10 was 26.86% which is expected

to reduce to 16.36% and 11.36% by the end of 12th plan and 13


The RAPDRP scheme is targeted to be completed by 2013-14 which would result in

decrease of T&D losses to around 20.86% by 2013-14. Keeping the optimistic approach, T &

D losses have been proposed to be brought down at the level of 16.36% by the end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 11.36% by the end of 13th plan (2021-22). The city authorities have also

been consulted before finalizing the T&D losses. As per the RAPDRP scheme, Utilities

having current T&D Losses below 30%, they have to reduce T&D losses at the rate of 1.5%

per year. T&D losses reduction programme has been adopted as 1.5% per year during 12th

plan period and 1% during 13th plan period.

The technical losses would be brought down by carrying out the T&D system

improvement and unaccounted energy which would be brought down by administrative

steps, introduction of metered supply under RAPDRP to reflect the true level of electricity

consumption by consumers and energy audit of electricity supplying feeders. Under

RAPDRP Scheme, there is provision to convert existing distribution network into HVDS and

ground cabling. Therefore, reduction in electrical energy loss during transmission &

distribution has been considered for future projections.

( �58�.88./5)*.8( .<�(./5�/88�8.5,

�

��

� �

��

� �

��

� �

()*��.5,$$$:

Indore 25.40 23.85 22.39 20.88 19.32 17.89 16.39 15.87 14.32 13.38 12.40 11.36

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-5 : T&D Losses in Percentage

61


(A) DOMESTIC CATEGORY

The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 347 MUs and

560 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past


development plans proposed in the city , the number of consumers are expected to

increase at the rate of 7% per year during the 12th and 13th plan .

�5� 67�/58��(./5.5*/��8(.��(�6/ 7

.5��

�

�

�

�

��

��

�

��

�

��

�$$$:

Indore 614 683 760 846 941 1047 1165 1284 1416 1560 1719 1895

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-6 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Category in MU

The energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 11.04% and 10.21%

during 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The higher growth rate during 12th

plan is due to 80 MW anticipated load (40% of 200 MW) due to various development

projects in the city. The higher growth rate in consumers has been adopted due to

impact of about 4 lacs people living without house in the slum in different areas of

the city and new township and shopping malls nearby the super corridors.

(B) COMMERCIAL





the rate of 7% and 6% per year during the 12th and 13th plan respectively. The

specific energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 7% and 6% per

year during 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

62

�5� 67�/58��(./5.5�/�� .��(�6/ 7.5��

�

�

�

�

�

�

��

�$$$:

Indore 224 252 283 318 357 402 451 500 551 607 669 738

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-7 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Category in MU

The energy consumption would grow by 12.17% and 10.34% during 12th & 13th plan

period respectively which includes the impact of important development projects i.e.

super corridor, sahara township, metro rail BRT and commercial centre to be

developed at Agra-Mumbai highway. The higher growth rate during 12th

& 13th plan

is due to 120 MW anticipated load (60% of 200 MW) due to various development

projects.

(C) INDUSTRIAL



sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was around 7%. Keeping in view the

present infrastructural development in the Indore city in near future, the higher

growth has been adopted to cope up with the proposed development activities. The

medical and IT hub is coming up in the Indore city which the part of the super

corridor project.

�5� 67�/58��(./5.5.��(�6/ 7.5��

�

�

�

�

��

��

��

�$$$:

Indore 317 362 414 473 542 619 709 800 897 1004 1123 1259

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-6 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Industrial Category in MU

Energy consumption in industrial sector will be 709 MUs and 1259 MUs by the end

of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan respectively which is expected to be

63

increase at the rate of 7% and 6% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period

respectively.

(D) OTHERS (Public Lighting, PWW, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial)


railways and non-industrial.The electrical energy consumption in others was 73 MUs

and 177 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. The actual CAGR

in these sectors was around 14%. Electrical Energy Consumption in these sectors

will be 455 MUs and 799 MUs by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan

period respectively which is expected to be increase at the rate of 14.5% and 12%

per year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

�5� 67�/58��(./5.5/�0��(�6/ 7.5��

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

��

�$$$:

Indore 201 231 264 303 348 397 455 491 570 637 714 798

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig. I-6 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Category in MU

7. CONCLUSION

The power distribution in Indore city is under perview of MPPKVVCL after

unbundling of earstwhile MPSEB. Indore with 19.60 lakh population (as per

provisional census 2011) is having large residential, commercial and industrial setup.

In Indore, highest energy is consumed by domestic category of consumers. The total

electricity consumption of 1219 MUs during the year 2009-10 is expected to increase

to 2780 MU and 4691 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively with the

annual growth rate of 11.89%.The growth of electrical energy demand is mainly due

to increase in population, industries, infrastructure and purchasing capacity . The

utilisation of energy in industries category would increase by 0.37% from the end of

12th plan to end of 13th plan whereas the utilisation in domestic and commercial

category would decrease by 1.51% and 0.73% respectively from the end of 12th plan

to end of 13th plan.

64

Appendix-I

33kV Distribution Network of Indore City

�

65

��3��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

&%3

&12

'&"

13&

#3%

%"3'

%%&4

%!13

%3%&

%4&"

%'%#

%1#4

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

!!3

!4!

!12

2%1

24'

3"!

34%

4""

44%

&"'

&&#

'21

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g%!

%2

%3

%&

%'

%#

!"

!!

!3

!&

!1

2"

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s %!

%3

%&

%#

!!

!3

!1

%3

2&

3%

3'

42

Irri

gati

on

3

44

4&

&'

'1

1#

%"

Ind

ust

ries

LT

%!3

%2#

%4&

%'4

%#'

!!%

!3#

!'1

2%"

234

212

3!'

Ind

ust

ries

HT

%#2

!!2

!41

!#1

234

2#1

3&"

4!!

41'

&4#

'3"

12!

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

""

""

""

""

""

""

Bu

lk S

up

ply

%'2

%##

!!#

!&2

2"2

231

3""

331

4"!

4&!

&2"

'"4

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

%24&

%4!1

%'!%

%#3"

!%11

!3&4

!'1"

2"'4

2323

21"1

3!!4

3&#%

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U3&!

3'#

3#'

4%!

4!3

42'

434

41"

4'3

411

4#1

&"%

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%!4-2

&!2-1

&!!-2

&!"-1

&%#-2

&%'-1

&%&-2

&%4-2

&%3-2

&%2-2

&%!-2

&%%-2

&

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U%1%1

!""'

!!%1

!34!

!'%!

2""!

22!4

2&44

3""1

32#&

31!2

4!#!

Al

Ld

Ft

%41

%"

41

&"

4#

%"

4#

&"

&"

%"

&"

&"

&%

%"

&%

&"

&!

%"

&!

&"

&2

%"

&2

&"

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

41-%

"41-&

"4#-%

"4#-&

"&"-%

"&"-&

"&%-%

"&%-&

"&!-%

"&!-&

"&2-%

"&2-&

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

24'

2#%

3!1

3'"

4%4

4&4

&!%

&''

'2'

1"!

1'!

#4"

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c4

5.2

74

4.6

94

4.1

54

3.6

14

3.0

14

2.4

74

1.9

14

1.7

64

1.2

34

0.9

74

0.6

94

0.4

1

Co

mm

.1

6.5

21

6.4

91

6.4

41

6.3

91

6.3

21

6.3

11

6.2

21

6.2

61

6.0

51

5.9

41

5.8

31

5.7

4

Ind

us

trie

s2

3.3

72

3.6

92

4.0

52

4.3

82

4.7

72

5.1

12

5.5

02

6.0

22

6.1

22

6.3

72

6.5

82

6.8

4

Oth

ers

14

.84

15

.13

15

.36

15

.62

15

.90

16

.11

16

.37

15

.97

16

.60

16

.73

16

.90

17

.01

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

66

Electric Power Survey AHMEDABAD CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Ahmedabad is the largest city of Gujarat. As per provisional report of census of India 2011 population of is 5.57 million. It is having area of 464 sq km and is located at 23°02 N72°35 E 23.03°N 72.58°E. The city is divided by the Sabarmati into two physically distinct eastern and western regions. The eastern bank of the river houses the old city, which includes the central town of Bhadra. This part of Ahmedabad is characterised by packed bazaars, the pol system of close clustered buildings, and numerous places of worship. It houses the main railway station, the General Post Office, and few buildings of the Muzaffarid and British era. The expansion of the city to the western side of Sabarmati was done by British by constructing Ellis Bridge in 1875. Later the modern Nehru Bridge was built. There are educational institutions, modern buildings, residential areas, shopping malls, multiplexes and new business districts in the western part of the city.

1.1 CLIMATE & RAINFALL

Ahmedabad has average altitude of 53 metres from sea level has a hot semi-arid climate with marginally less rain. There are three main seasons: summer, monsoon and winter. The weather is hot through the months of March to June with the average max –min temp range of 41 °C - 27 °C. From November to February, the average max-min temp range of 30 °C - 15 °C. Rainy season ranges from mid-June to mid-September with southwest monsoon. The average annual rainfall is about 800 millimeters, but infrequent heavy torrential rains cause local rivers to flood and it is not uncommon for droughts to occur when the monsoon does not extend as far west as usual.


In the 19th century, with establishment of first Indian textile mill, the Ahmedabad Spinning and Weaving Company Limited, followed by series of textile mills such as the Calico Mills, Bagicha Mills and Arvind Mills. By 1905 there were about 33 textile mills in the city. The textile industry further expanded rapidly during the First World War, and benefited from the influence of Swadeshi movement, which promoted the purchase of Indian-made goods. Ahmedabad was known as the "Manchester of the East", for its textile industry. The city is the largest supplier of denim and one of the largest exporters of gemstones and jewellery in India.

Two of the biggest pharmaceutical companies of India, Zydus Cadila and Torrent Pharmaceuticals , are based in the city. The Nirma group of industries, which runs a large number of detergent and chemical industrial units, has its corporate headquarters in the city. The city also houses the corporate headquarters of the Adani Group, a multinational trading and infrastructure development company.

The completion of Sardar Sarovar Project has improved the supply of potable water for the city. In recent years, the Gujarat government has increased investment in the modernization of the city's infrastructure, providing for the construction of larger roads and improvements to water supply, electricity and communications.

67

2. POWER SCENARIO

2.1 DISCOM WISE SHARE OF DISTRIBUTION OF POWER

The distribution of power to the Ahmedabad City is under purview of Torrent Power Ltd. (TPL) and Uttar Gujarat Vij Company Ltd. (UGVCL). The TPL distributed over 4.984 BUs.of power (80% of total supply to city) to its consumer spread over 293 Sq. Km. during FY 2009-10 in main city area whereas UGVCL has distributed 1.213 BUs.of power (20% of total supply to city) to its consumer in same year in the remaining area of the city. A Power map of Ahmedabad City for the distribution area of Torrent Power Ltd and UGVCL showing distribution network and other details is given at Appendix A-1 & A-2. Thecategory wise supply of energy by each DISCOM during 2009-10 is illustrated in table A-1.

Table - A1

SUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE SUPPLY OF ENERGY DURING 2009-10

UGVCL TPL

CategoryENERGY CONS. IN

MUs

% OF TOTAL

ENERGY CONS. IN

MUs

% OF TOTAL

TOTAL

1. Domestic 35 2% 1544 98% 1579

2. Commercial & Misc. 10 1% 1163 99% 1172

3. Public lighting 5 11% 43 89% 48

4. Public Water Works

i) LT 0 0% 0 0% 0

ii) HT (Demand less than 1 MW) 1 2% 80 98% 81

iii) HT (Demand more than 1 MW) 0 0% 19 100% 19

5. Irrigation

i) P/S 0 0 0

ii) LIS 0 0 0

6. Industries

i) LT 177 13% 1140 87% 1318

ii) HT (Demand less than 1 MW) 240 33% 491 67% 730

iii) HT (Demand more than 1 MW) 89 15% 506 85% 595

7. Railway traction 656 100% 0 0% 656

8. Bulk Supply to

a) Non Industrial Consumers 0 0 0

b) licensees 0 0 0

Total (Energy Consumption) 1213 20% 4984 80% 6197

From above table it is seen that UGVCL mainly supply power to Industries and Railways.

Out of total energy supply by UGVCL, almost 50% is supplied to Railways only.

68

2.2 TOTAL UTILISATION OF POWER

The total electricity consumption of the city was 6197 MU in year 2009-10. During the last

five years, the compounded average growth rate of electrical energy consumption of the

city was 2.99%.. The peak electric load (for area under purview of Torrent power) of the

city was 709 MW and 1039 MW during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. During

the last five years, the compounded average growth rate of peak electric load of the city

was 6.57%.

3. CONSULTATION WITH STATE UTILITIES/ AUTHORITIES

During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Ahmedabad city, consultations were

made with concerned state utilities of Gujarat viz. Torrent Power Ltd. (TPL) and Gujarat

Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd (GUVNL) in January 2012. No representative of Uttar Gujarat Vij

Company Ltd. (UGVCL) participated in the meeting.

The main points discussed during the consultation with the state organizations outlined

below:

The consumer categories as required for EPS and as per tariff structure of state are

slightly different due to which some categories have been merged for submission of

data to CEA.

To bringing down the T & D losses gradually from 8.5%, Torrent Power Ltd. (TPL)

stated that due to limited generating capacity, power is also procured from other

sources in order to meet the demand of respective licensee area which involves

transmission losses. Therefore 8.5 % T & D losses is the saturation level beyond

which it cannot be reduced.

The energy consumption in the categories of public lighting and commercial would

increase significantly in near future owing to presently ongoing major development

projects such as Bus Rapid Transport System (BRTS), 30 model roads, Sabarmati

River Front Project etc.

The TPL clarified that the negative growth In case of industries (>1MW) category is

solely due to increase in consumption from the Captive Power plants attached with

some of the industries located in the licence area.

The overall effect of conservation of energy due to increase gradual increase in use

of latest technology based energy efficient appliances would be negligible due to

fast growing rate of urbanisation.

GUVNL indicated that in case of UGVCL licence area, the consumption of energy is

mainly on account of industrial category and railway traction category. It also added

that the peak demand data for supply made by UGVCL is not available.

The latest data for 2010-11 was not made available to CEA and therefore GUVNL

was required to co-ordinate and furnish compiled data. GUVNL was also requested

to incorporate the correction/ changes as pointed out during meeting.

The complete historical data of peak demand of entire city (simultaneous peak of

TPL and UGVCL) for the period from 2003-04 to 2009-10 was not available

69

therefore the same was estimated for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 by

considering submitted peak demand of TPL for the period from 2003-04 to 2009-10.

Actual Annual Load Factor (ALF) for the year 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 was

70.60 %, 68.56 % and 68.64 % respectively. Therefore Annual Load Factor for the

12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) was adopted as 68 % and 65 %

respectively. This adopted values of ALF were used to work out peak demand of the

city for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22.


The Sabarmati River Front project, Bus Rapid Transist System (BRTS), 30 model road project are some of the main development projects for the city.


The specific details regarding growth in electricity demand due to development of

infrastructure was not furnished. The latest data for year 2010-11 was also not furnished to

CEA by UGVCL. The input data (upto 2009-10) as provided by TPL and UGVCL was

examined and the consultations were made regarding the factors governing the growth of

infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10 years. The steps initiated/planned by State

Authorities to implement different schemes which would have bearing on the electricity

demand were also broadly taken into consideration for the preparation of EPS.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirement of Ahmedabad city is estimated to

be 11133 MUs and 16097 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The total peak electrical load of Ahmedabad city is estimated to be 1869 MW

and 2827 MW by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The total

electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 10102 MU by end of 12th plan and

14665 MU by end of 13th plan. The Transmission & Distribution losses of Ahmedabad city

could be brought down to 9.26% by end of 12th plan and further reduced gradually to

8.90% by end of 13th plan as a result of implementation of steps/measures initiated for

improvement of energy efficiency.

The pattern of utilization of the electric energy in 2009-10 indicates that the

industrial category contributes around 42.64% followed by domestic category 25.47%,

commercial 18.92% and others12.97%. The EPS result show that by end of 12th plan, the

utilization in industries category and others category is expected to slightly decline to

41.87% and 12.67% respectively whereas the utilization in domestic category and

commercial category would to increase to 25.72% and 19.74% respectively. By end of

13th plan, the utilization in domestic category and others category would likely to be

25.35% and 12.15% whereas the utilisation in industries and commercial category would

be 42.61% and 19.90% respectively.

Annexure A-1 & A-2 indicate the summaries of forecast comprising the category

wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22

in respect of TPL and UGVCL respectively. Whereas Annexure A-3 indicates forecast

70

comprising the category wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption, T&D losses,

electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of utilization for the period from 2010-11

to 2021-22 in respect of Ahmadabad City.

The details of EPS results are indicated below:-


The total electrical energy requirement of the Ahmedabad City has been arrived by adding


higher growth in the category of domestic, commercial and industrial has been considered

to wipe out the present shortage in the city.

The total energy requirement of the city during the year 2009-10 was 6870 MUs which is expected to increase to 11133 MUs and 16097 MUs for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would be around 7.20% and 7.65% during 12th & 13th plan respectively. The DISCOM wise and year-wise pattern of growth in electrical energy requirements for 12th & 13th Plan period is shown in Fig A-1.

Fig. A-1 : Electrical Energy Requirement in MU


The Peak Electrical Demand of City was 780 MW during 2003-04 which rose to around 1143 MW by 2009-10 and is expected to grow @ 8.62% and 7.20% during 12th plan and 13th plan in spite of 6.57% actual growth from 2003-04 to 2009-10. The peak electric load is expected to be 1869 MW and 2827 MW by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively. The year-wise growth of peak load of Ahmedabad city for 12th & 13th

Plan period is shown in Fig A-2.

Fig. A-2 : Peak Electrical Load in MW

71


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2009-10 was 6197 MUs and is


respectively with the annual growth rate of 7.44%. It can be seen that the utilisation pattern

would almost remain same throughout 12th and 13th Plan. The category wise growth in

electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig A-3

Fig. A-3 : Category wise Energy consumption in MU

5.4 PATTERN OF ENERGY UTILISATION

5.4.1 FOR DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF TPL & UGVCL

(1) TPL

The consumption pattern for TPL for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as envisaged by

end of 12th plan & 13th plan is illustrated in fig A-4. From the utilisation pattern for the year

2009-10 , it can be seen that the highest energy is consumed by industries category

(42.87%) followed by domestic (30.97%), commercial (23.33%) and other remaining

categories (2.83%).

Fig. A-4 : Consumption Pattern For TPL

72

(2) UGVCL

The consumption pattern for UGVCL for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as envisaged

by end of 12th plan & 13th plan is illustrated in fig A-5. From the utilisation pattern for the

year 2009-10, the highest energy is consumed by others category (54.62%) followed by

industries category (41.70%), domestic (2.88%) and commercial (0.85%).

Fig. A-5 : Consumption Pattern For UGVCL

5.4.2 FOR DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF AHMEDABAD CITY

The consumption pattern for entire Greater Mumbai city for various sectors as on 2009-10

and as envisaged by end of 12th plan & 13th plan is illustrated in fig A-6. From the

utilisation pattern for the year 2009-10, it can be seen that the highest energy is consumed

by industries category (42.64%) followed by domestic (25.47%), commercial (18.92%) and

other remaining categories (12.97%).

Fig. A-6 : Consumption Pattern For Ahmedabad City

The pattern of utilization at the end of 12th & 13TH Plan reveal that the consumption in

domestic category would be 25.72% & 25.35%, in commercial category 19.74% & 19.90%

, in industrial category 41.87% and 42.61% and in others category 12.67% and 12.15%

(which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers).


The year wise and DISCOM wise pattern of reduction in T & D losses envisaged as per EPS is indicated in Fig. A-7. The T & D losses for UGVCL and TPL during the year 2009-10 was 14.60% and 8.6% respectively. The T & D losses in case of UGVCL is expected to reduce to 12.30% and 10.50% by the end of 12th plan and 13th plan period respectively. Whereas The T & D losses in case of TPL is expected to remain 8.5% during 12th plan as well as 13th plan period. The T & D losses for the entire city was 9.80% during the year 2009-10 and was expected to reduce to 9.26% and 8.90% by the end of 12th plan and 13th

plan period respectively.

73

Fig. A-7 : T & D Losses in Percentage


The category wise details of the forecast are discussed below:


The electrical energy consumption for the city in domestic category was 960 MUs and

1579 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past energy


proposed in the city , the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 3%

and 6% per year in the distribution area of TPL and UGVCL respectively. Whereas the

energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 4.25% and 3% in respect of TPL

and UGVCL respectively. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this

category for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. A-8.

Fig. A-8 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

The total energy consumption of the city is expected to increase at the rate of 7.42%

during 12th and 13th plan period.

6.2 COMMERCIAL CATEGORY

The electrical energy consumption for the city in commercial category was 616 MUs and

1172 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past energy


74

in energy consumption, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of

4% in areas of TPL and UGVCL both whereas the specific energy consumption is

expected to increase at the rate of 3.75% and 3% per year in respect of TPL and UGVCL

respectively. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category for the

period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig.A-9

Fig. A-9 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

The total energy consumption of the city would grow by 7.89% and 7.91% during 12th &

13th plan period respectively which includes the impact of important development projects.

6.3 INDUSTRIAL CATEGORY

The electrical energy consumption for the city in industrial sector was 1429 MUs and 2643

MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. The actual CAGR in industries

sector (which including LT & HT industries) for UGVCL, TPL and entire city was 5.087%,

6.21% and 10.79% respectively. Keeping in view the present infrastructural development

in the Ahmedabad city, the higher growth has been adopted to cope up with the proposed

development activities. The adopted growth rate for the 13th plan for UGVCL and TPL is

7.04% and 6.92% respectively. Whereas the growth rate figures for 14th plan for UGVCL

and TPL is 8.48% and 8.02% respectively. As a result, the energy consumption in

industrial sector is expected to increase at the rate of 7.01% and 8.11% per year during

the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The energy consumption would be 4218 MUs

and 6248 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively. The

DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category for the period from 2010-

11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. A-10.

Fig. A-10 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Industrial Category

75


The categories included in others are public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railways

and non-industrial.The electrical energy consumption in others was 136 MUs and 981 MUs

during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. The actual CAGR for the entire city in

these sectors was around 39%. Electrical Energy Consumption in these sectors will be

1574 MUs and 1781 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan period

respectively which is expected to be increase at the rate of 6.86% during the 12th and 13th

plan period respectively. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this

category for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. A-11.

Fig. A-11 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Category

7 CONCLUSION

Ahmedabad with 5.57 million population is having comparatively large industrial setup

owing to which the percentage consumption of energy under industries category is next to

Surat. It is one of the few cities in country which has long experience of private power

distribution management. The total electricity consumption of 6197 MUs during the year

2009-10 is expected to 10102 MU and 14665 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22

respectively with the annual growth rate of 7.44%.The growth of electrical energy demand

is mainly due to increase in population, industries, infrastructure etc. The utilisation pattern

would almost remain same throughout 12th and 13th Plan.

76

Ahemdabad

AnnexureA3

EnergyConsumptioninMUs

ConsumptionCategories

2010-1

12011-1

22012-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72017-1

82018-1

92019-2

02020-2

12021-2

2

Dom

esti

c1691

1817

1952

2096

2252

2419

2599

2791

2999

3221

3461

3718

Com

mer

cia

l &

Mis

c.1264

1364

1471

1588

1713

1848

1994

2152

2322

2505

2704

2918

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g54

59

65

71

77

84

92

101

110

120

131

143

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 108

112

117

121

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

161

Irri

ga

tio

n0

00

00

00

00

00

0

Ind

ust

ries

LT

1410

1508

1612

1723

1841

1968

2103

2264

2448

2647

2861

3092

Ind

ust

ries

HT

1406

1506

1614

1729

1853

1985

2127

2293

2484

2690

2914

3156

Rail

wa

y t

ract

ion

702

751

804

860

920

985

1054

1127

1206

1291

1381

1478

Bu

lk S

up

ply

00

00

00

00

00

00

Tota

l (

En

erg

y

Con

sum

pti

on

)6636

7117

7634

8187

8782

9419

10102

10868

11713

12624

13606

14665

T&

D lo

sses -

MU

692

745

796

852

912

969

1031

1100

1176

1256

1341

1432

T&

D lo

sses -

in %

9.45

9.47

9.45

9.43

9.41

9.33

9.26

9.19

9.12

9.05

8.97

8.90

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U7328

7862

8430

9040

9693

10388

11133

11968

12889

13881

14947

16097

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

cto

r -

%68.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

65.00

65.00

65.00

65.00

65.00

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

1230

1320

1415

1518

1627

1744

1869

2102

2264

2438

2625

2827

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Cate

go

ry2

01

0-1

12

01

1-1

22

01

2-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72016-1

72017-1

82018-1

92019-2

02020-2

1

Do

mesti

c25.4

925.5

325.5

725.6

025.6

425.6

825.7

225.6

925.6

025.5

225.4

325.3

5

Co

mm

.19.0

519.1

619.2

819.3

919.5

119.6

219.7

419.8

019.8

219.8

519.8

719.9

0

Ind

ustr

ies

42.4

442.3

542.2

642.1

642.0

741.9

741.8

741.9

342.1

142.2

842.4

442.6

1

Oth

ers

13.0

312.9

612.9

012.8

412.7

812.7

312.6

712.5

812.4

712.3

612.2

512.1

5

To

tal

100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0

CATEGORYWISE&YEARWISE(Utilitiesonly)

(201011to202122)

18thELECTRICPOWERSURVEYFORECAST

SUMMARYOFELECTRICALENERGYCONSUMPTION,ENERGYREQUIREMENTANDPEAKLOAD

79

APPENDIX A-1

80

APPENDIX- A–2

81

Electric Power Survey SURAT CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Surat is a city located on the western part of India in the state of Gujarat. It is one of

the most dynamic city of India with one of the fastest growth rate due to immigration

from various part of Gujarat and other states of India. Surat is India’s tenth and

Gujarat’s second most populous city with population of 2.48 millions as per 2001

census. The city is located at 21°10′N 72°50′E21.17°N 72.83°E. It has an average

elevation of 13 meters. The Surat district is surrounded by Bharuch, Narmada

(North), Navsari and Dang (South) districts. To the west is the Gulf of Cambay. Surat

has grown in area since the early 1700s. The oldest part of the city developed in the

area between the train station and the area known as Athwalines. Since the 1970s

most of the new development including the most desirable location for the city's

burgeoning middle and upper class is the area between Athwalines and the coast at

Dumas.


Surat has a tropical savanna climate, moderated strongly by the Arabian Sea. The

summer begins in early March and lasts till June. April and May are the hottest

months, the average maximum temperature being 40 °C. Monsoon begins in late

June and the city receives about 1,000 millimetres of rain by the end of September,

with the average maximum being 32 °C during those months. October and

November see the retreat of the monsoon and a return of high temperatures till late

November. Winter starts in December and ends in late February, with average

temperatures of around 23 °C, and little rain.


Surat is known for diamonds, textiles and recently for diamond-studded gold

jewellery manufacturing. Real Estate is a new emerging business in Surat. It is also

famous for its diamond industry and textile industry, along with silk and chemical

industries. The city is known for producing world-class synthetic textiles. Jari, is the

oldest business in Surat, and about 80000 embroidery units make the city a major

center of the embroidery industry

Surat also has many industrial Giants such as KRIBHCO mammoth fertiliser plant,

Reliance petrochemical plant, Essar's 10 million tonne steel plant, L&T's heavy

engineering unit, GSEG, gas processing plant of ONGC, GAIL (Gas Authority India

Ltd.), NTPC -KGPP gas based power plant, Shell LNG terminal All these at Hazira

and ABG Shipyard (Shipbuilding Yard) and UltraTech Cement (grinding Unit) at

Magdalla port where as Torrent Power has mega power plant and GIPCL has got a

huge lignite power plant in kamrej area.

83

2. POWER SCENARIO


The distribution of power to the Surat City is under purview of Torrent Power Ltd.

(TPL) and Dakshin Gujarat Vij Company Ltd. (DGVCL). TPL efficiently distributed

over 3.024 BUs.of power (46% of total supply to city) to its consumer in FY 2009-10

spread over 52 Sq. Kms. in main city area whereas DGVCL has distributed 3.509

BUs.of power (54% of total supply to city) to its consumer in same year in the

remaining area of the city. The category wise supply of energy by each DISCOM

during 2009-10 is illustrated in table S-1.

Table – S-1

SUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE SUPPLY OF ENERGY DURING 2009-10

DGVLC TPL TOTAL

ENERGY

CONS. IN

MUs

% OF TOTAL

ENERGY

CONS. IN

MUs

% OF TOTA

L

1. Domestic 527 49% 556 51% 1083

2. Commercial & Misc. 223 32% 468 68% 691

3. Public lighting 11 47% 12 53% 22


i) LT 0 0% 0 0% 0

ii) HT (Demand less than 1 27 64% 15 36% 42

iii) HT (Demand more than 1 MW)

35 52% 32 48% 67

5. Irrigation

i) P/S 0 0% 0 0% 0

ii) LIS 0 0% 0 0% 0

6. Industries

i) LT 1731 50% 1759 50% 3490

ii) HT (Demand less than 1 776 82% 171 18% 946

iii) HT (Demand more than 1 90 90% 11 10% 101

7. Railway traction 89 100% 0 0% 89

8. Bulk Supply to

a) Non Industrial Consumers 0 0% 0 0% 0

b) licensees 0 0% 0 0% 0

Total (Energy Consumption) 3509 54% 3024 46% 6532

84

2.2 TOTAL UTILISATION OF POWER

The total electricity consumption of the city was 6532 MU in year 2009-10. During

the last five years, the city has observed more or less steady growth rate of 4 -5 %.

The peak electric load (calculated) of the city was 1014 MW and 1145 MW during

the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. During the last five years, the

compounded average growth rate of peak electric load of the city was 2.26%. A

Power map of part of Surat City for the distribution area of Torrent Power Ltd.and

DGVCL showing distribution network and other details is given at Appendix S-1 &

S-2..


During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Surat, the consultations were

made with the GUVNL and TPL in January 2012..

The main points discussed during the consultations with the state organizations are

outlined below:

• The complete area of city is divided into TPL licence area and DGVCL

licence area. The licence area of TPL covers interior part of city whereas

licence area of DGVCL covers outskirt of city. It was therefore decided during

the consultation that the complete details of city related to city survey would

be compiled by GUVNL and furnished to CEA at the earliest.

• During consultation process, it was felt that the availability of pattern of

growth in various categories of consumers would help forecasting the demand

of city in better manner. It was therefore decided that the GUVNL would

compile the informations related to pattern of growth in various categories of

consumers of the city and furnish to CEA.

• In order to arrive at an accurate forecasting, it is very necessary that the input

data be correct in all respects. it was therefore unanimously agreed by all

utilities to furnish the corrected data.

• Distribution map of only TPL license area was available at the time of

consultation. Therefore it was decided after very lengthy discussion that the

complete distribution map showing distribution network along with major

electrical equipments for complete city of Surat be prepared collectively by all

the utilities and submitted to CEA so that the same can be incorporated in

final EPS report.

• As regard to impacts of future development of infrastructures on electricity

demand, it was decided that the separate infrastructure development plan for

12th

and 13th

plan period be submitted separately.

85

• In the exercise of forecasting of any city, peak demand of the city needs to be

taken into account. As the power is supplied by two utilities in Surat city, peak

demand of whole city was required to be furnished to CEA. It was therefore

decided that the peak demand would be calculated collectively by both the

DISCOMs under consultation with GUVNL and GUVNL would furnished to

CEA.

• The complete historical data of peak demand of entire city (simultaneous peak

of TPL and DGVCL) for the period from 2003-04 to 2009-10 was not

available. In such a situation, the peak demand of entire city for the period

from 2010-11 to 2021-22 was estimated by taking into account peak demand

submitted by TPL for the period from 2003-04 to 2009-10.

• Actual Annual Load Factor (ALF) for the year 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10

was 66.49 %, 70.09 % and 71.78 % respectively. Therefore Annual Load

Factor for the 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-22) was adopted as 70

% and 68 % respectively. This adopted values of ALF were used to work out

peak demand of the city for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22.


Master Plan of Surat is not available.


The input data (upto 2009-10) as provided by TPL and DGVCL was examined and

the consultations were made regarding the factors governing the growth of

infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10 years. The steps initiated / planned

by State Authorities to implement different schemes which would have bearing on

the electricity demand were also broadly taken into consideration for the preparation

of EPS.

The EPS of Surat city has been undertaken after taking into consideration the above

aspects.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirements of Surat city is estimated to

be 11053 MUs and 15225 MUs by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-

22) respectively. The peak load requirements of Surat city is estimated to be 1802

MW and 2556 MW by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of

10099 MU and by end of 12th

plan and 13940 MU by end of 13th

plan. The

Transmission & Distribution losses of Surat city are expected to reduce to 8.62% and

8.44% by the end of 12th

plan and 13th


The pattern of utilization of the electric energy in 2009-10 indicates that the

industrial category contributes around 69.46% followed by domestic category

86

16.58%, commercial 10.59% and others 3.37%. The EPS results indicates that by

end of 12th plan, the utilization in industrial category and others category is expected

to decrease to 65.23% and 3.03% respectively whereas the utilisation in domestic

category and commercial category would increase to 20.85% and 10.89%

respectively.

Annexure S-1 & S-2 indicate the summaries of forecast comprising the category

wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption for the period from 2010-11 to

2021-22 in respect of TPL and DGVCL respectively. Whereas Annexure S-3

indicates forecast comprising the category wise/year wise details of the electricity

consumption, T&D losses, electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of

utilization for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 in respect of Surat City.



The total electrical energy requirement of the Surat City has been arrived by adding






and 2021-22. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement

would be around 6.60% and 6.61% during 12th & 13

th plan respectively. The year

wise energy requirement by each DISCOM and city is given in Fig. S-1.

Fig. S-1 : Electrical Energy Requirement in MU


According to the data furnish by TPL and DGVCL, the Peak Demand of City

(calculated) was 1014 MW during 2003-04 which rose to 1145 MW by 2009-10 and

87

is expected to grow @ 6.69% and 7.23% during 12th

and 13th

plan respectively. As

the result of the study of pattern of utilization of various categories and the present

shortage in the city, the peak electric load will be 1802 MW and 2556 MW by the end

of 12th

(2016-17)and 13th

(2021-22)plan respectively. The year wise growth of peak

electric load of Surat city during 12th

and 13th

plan is illustrated in fig. S-2

Fig. S-2 :Peak Electrical Load in MW


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2009-10 was 6532 MUs

and is expected to increase to 10099 MU and 13940 MU during the year 2016-17

and 2021-22 respectively with the annual growth rate of 6.52%. The category wise

growth of electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in fig. S-3.

Fig. S-3 : Category wise Energy consumption in MU

88


5.4.1 FOR DISTRIBUTION AREA OF TPL / DGVCL

(1) TPL

The consumption pattern for TPL for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as

envisaged by end of 12th

plan & 13th

plan is illustrated in fig S-4. From the utilisation

pattern for the year 2009-10, it can be seen that the highest energy is consumed by

industries category (64.16%) followed by domestic (18.40%), commercial (15.49%)

and other remaining categories (1.95%).

Fig. S-4 : Consumption Pattern For TPL

(2) DGVCL

The consumption pattern for DGVCL for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as


plan & 13th

plan is illustrated in fig S-5. From the utilisation

pattern for the year 2009-10, the highest energy is consumed by industrial category

(74.02%) followed by domestic (15.02%), commercial (6.36%), and others (3.84%).

Fig. S-5 : Consumption Pattern For DGVCL

5.4.2 FOR COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION AREA OF SURAT CITY

The consumption pattern for entire Greater Mumbai city for various sectors as on

2009-10 and as envisaged by end of 12th

plan & 13th

plan is illustrated in fig S-

6.From the utilisation pattern for the year 2009-10, it can be seen that the highest

energy is consumed by industries category (69.46%) followed by domestic (16.58%),

commercial (10.59%), and other remaining categories (3.37%).

89

Fig. S-6 : Consumption Pattern For Surat city

The pattern of utilization at the end of 12th

& 13TH

Plan reveal that the consumption

in domestic category would be 20.85% & 24.34%, in commercial category 10.89% &

11.07%, in industrial category 65.23% and 61.73% and in others category 3.03%

and 2.86% (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and

bulk consumers).


The T & D losses for DGVCL and TPL during the year 2009-10 was 11.80% and

6.13% respectively. The T & D losses in case of DGVCL is expected to reduce to

10.57% and 10.15% by the end of 12th

plan and 13th


Whereas The T & D losses in case of TPL is expected to remain 6.00% during 12th

plan as well as 13th

plan period. The T & D losses for the entire city was 9.29%

during the year 2009-10 and was expected to reduce to 8.62% and 8.44% by the

end of 12th

plan and 13th

plan period respectively. The year wise and DISCOM wise

pattern of reduction in T & D losses envisaged as per EPS is indicated in Fig. S-7.

Fig. S-7 : T & D Losses in Percentage

90



The electrical energy consumption for the city in domestic category was 639 MUs

and 1183 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the

past energy consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major

development plans proposed in the city, the number of consumers is expected to

increase at the rate of 4% and 6% per year in the distribution area of TPL and

DGVCL respectively. Whereas the specific energy consumption is expected to

increase at the rate of 5% and 4.5% in respect of TPL and DGVCL respectively. The

DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category for the period from

2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. S-8.

.

Fig. S-8 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

The energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 9.98% and

10.01% during 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption for the city in commercial category was 426 MUs



development plans in energy consumption, the number of consumers are expected

to increase at the rate of 2.5% and 5% per year in the distribution area of TPL and

DGVCL respectively whereas the specific energy consumption is expected to

increase at the rate of 3% and 4% per year in respect of TPL and DGVCL

respectively. The energy consumption of city would grow by 6.86% and 7.00%

during 12th & 13th plan period respectively which includes the impact of important

development projects.

91

The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category for the period

from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. S-9.

Fig. S-9 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption for the city in industrial sector was 3145 MUs and

4537 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. The actual CAGR of

last five years of industrial sector (which including LT & HT industries) in respect of

DGVCL, TPL and entire city was 8.88%, 2.24% and 5.73% respectively. Keeping in

view the present infrastructural development in the Surat city, the higher growth has

been adopted to cope up with the proposed development activities. The adopted

growth rate for the 12th plan for DGVCL and TPL is 6.50% and 4.61% respectively.

Whereas the growth rate figures for 13th

plan for DGVCL and TPL is 6.04% and

4.62% respectively. As a result, the energy consumption is expected to increase at

the rate of 5.72% and 5.48% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period

respectively. The Energy consumption for entire city in industrial sector would be

6588 MUs and 8606 MUs by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan

respectively.

The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category for the period

from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig.S-10.

Fig. S-10 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Industrial Category

92

6.4 OTHERS(Public Lighting, PWW, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial)




CAGR for the entire city in these sectors was 5.52%. Electrical Energy

Consumption by the city under these sectors will be 306 MUs and 399 MUs by the

end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan period respectively which is expected

to increase at the rate of 5.14% and 5.43% during the 12th and 13th plan period

respectively. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category

for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. S-11.

Fig. S-11 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Category

7. CONCLUSION

Surat with 2.48 million population (as per 2001 census) is having densely developed

industrial setup. The major portion of industrial belt of the country is located in Surat

due to which enormous power is required by this city. In Surat city, nearly 65 %

power is consumed by industries only which is highest among all the mega cities of the

country. The total electricity consumption of city during the year 2009-10 was 7202


17 and 2021-22 respectively with the annual growth rate of 6.52%.The growth of

electrical energy demand is mainly due to increase in population, industries,

infrastructure and etc. From the patterns of energy utilisation of city, the utilisation in

commercial category and domestic category would increase by 0.18% and 3.49%

respectively within the period from the end of 12th

plan to end of 13th

plan. Whereas

the utilisation of energy in industry and others category would decrease by 3.5% and

0.17% respectively within the same period.

93

Appendix S-1

94

Appendix S-2�

95

��/�

��2

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

%%#"

%2"1

%32#

%41!

%'3"

%#%3

!%"4

!2%&

!431

!1"2

2"13

22#2

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

'2#

'1#

132

#""

#&!

%"!#

%%""

%%'&

%!41

%23&

%33%

%432

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g!3

!4

!'

!1

2"

2!

23

2&

2'

2#

3!

33

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s %%!

%%'

%!%

%!&

%2"

%24

%3%

%3&

%4%

%4&

%&!

%&1

Irri

gati

on

"

""

""

""

""

""

"

Ind

ust

ries

LT

2&"&

2'14

2#'3

3%'%

32'1

34#&

31!4

4"4%

4!'&

44%%

4'4'

&"%2

Ind

ust

ries

HT

%%%3

%!"!

%!#1

%3"%

%4%2

%&22

%'&2

%#"3

!"4'

!!!!

!3""

!4#!

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

#!

#1

%"3

%%"

%%'

%!3

%2!

%3%

%4!

%&2

%'4

%11

Bu

lk S

up

ply

""

""

""

""

""

""

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

&1''

'2!4

'1"4

12%#

11'%

#3&2

%""##

%"''"

%%3'#

%!!3"

%2"4#

%2#3"

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U&4&

'"4

'31

'#3

133

1#'

#42

%"%!

%"'3

%%3"

%!%"

%!14

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%1-'

%1-'

'1-'

41-'

!1-&

#1-&

&1-&

!1-4

#1-4

41-4

!1-3

11-3

3

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U'423

1"!#

1442

#%%2

#'%4

%"2&"

%%"42

%%'1!

%!442

%221"

%3!&#

%4!!4

Al

Ld

Ft

%'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

&1

""

&1

""

&1

""

&1

""

&1

""

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

%!!#

%2"#

%2#4

%31&

%413

%&#"

%1"!

%#'1

!%"'

!!3&

!2#4

!44&

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c1

7.3

01

7.8

61

8.4

31

9.0

21

9.6

22

0.2

32

0.8

52

1.5

02

2.1

92

2.9

02

3.6

12

4.3

4

Co

mm

.1

0.7

51

0.7

71

0.8

01

0.8

21

0.8

51

0.8

71

0.8

91

0.9

21

0.9

61

1.0

01

1.0

31

1.0

7

Ind

us

trie

s6

8.6

46

8.1

06

7.5

46

6.9

86

6.4

16

5.8

26

5.2

36

4.5

86

3.8

86

3.1

86

2.4

66

1.7

3

Oth

ers

3.3

23

.27

3.2

33

.18

3.1

33

.08

3.0

33

.00

2.9

62

.93

2.9

02

.86

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

98

Electric Power Survey PUNE CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Pune, also known as 'Punawadi' or Punya-Nagari, is the second largest city in Maharashtra,

after Mumbai. Pune is known to have existed as a town since 937 AD. Shivaji, the founder of

the Maratha Empire, lived in Pune as a boy, and later oversaw significant growth and

development of the town during his reign. In independent India, Pune is known for its

educational facilities, having more than a hundred educational institutes and nine

universities. It also boasts a growing industrial hinterland, with many information technology

and automotive companies setting up factories in Pune district. The area of Pune Municipal

Corporation is 243.84 Square Kilometres with population of 50,49,968 (density 20,710).


Pune has a tropical wet and dry climate with average temperatures ranging between 20 to

28 °C. Pune experiences three seasons: summer, monsoon and a winter. Typical summer

months are from March to May, with maximum temperatures ranging from 30 to 38 °C. The

warmest month in Pune is April; although summer doesn't end until May, the city often

receives heavy thundershowers in May (and humidity remains high). Even during the hottest

months, the nights are usually cool due to Pune's high altitude. The monsoon lasts from

June to October, with moderate rainfall and temperatures ranging from 10 to 28 °C . Most of

the 722 mm of annual rainfall in the city fall between June and September, and July is the

wettest month of the year. Hailstorms are also common in this region. Winter begins in

November; November in particular is referred to as the Rosy Cold. The daytime temperature

hovers around 28 °C while night temperature is below 10 °C for most of December and

January, often dropping to 5 to 6 °C.

1.2 INDUSTRY & ECONOMY As one of the largest cities in India, and as a result of its many colleges and universities,

Pune is emerging as a prominent location for IT and manufacturing companies to expand.

Pune has the seventh largest metropolitan economy and the sixth highest per capita income

in the country. The automotive sector is prominent in Pune. It is home to the Automotive

Research Association of India, which is responsible for the homologation of all vehicles

available in India. All sectors of the automotive industry are represented, from two-wheelers

and autorickshaws to cars, tractors, tempos, excavators and trucks. The Hinjawadi IT Park

(officially called the Rajeev Gandhi IT Park) is a project being started by MIDC to house the

IT sector in Pune. When completed, the Hinjawadi IT Park is expected to have an area of

about 2,800 acres (11 km2). To facilitate economic growth, the government made liberal

incentives in its IT and ITES Policy, 2003 and leased properties on MIDC land. The IT sector

employs more than 70,000 people. Pune Food Cluster development project is an initiative

funded by the World Bank. It is being implemented with the help of SIDBI, Cluster Craft to

facilitate the development of the fruit and vegetable processing industries in and around

Pune.

99

2. POWER SCENARIO

The distribution of power to the Pune City is under purview of Maharashtra State Electricity

Distribution Co. Ltd. (MSEDCL) after unbundling of Maharashtra State Electricity Board. The

total electricity consumption of the city was 5773 MU in year 2009-10. During the last five

years, the city has observed more or less steady annual growth rate of 9 -16 % in terms of

electrical energy consumption. The peak electric load of the city was 1027 MW during the

year 2009-10. A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of

Pune is given at Appendix P.


During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Pune, the consultations were made

with the MSETCL / MSEDCL.


below:

• Historical data of Year wise connected load in case of industrial categories

(contracted demand > 1MW) were not available with power utilities.

• Actual annual load factor for the year 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 (calculated

based on actual peak demand) was 71.82%, 74.38% and 75.52% respectively which

was quite high and therefore MSEDCL was requested to reconsider the figures of

peak load for the above period, however it was intimated that the submitted data

were in order.

• The peak load of city for the period from 2003-04 to 2008-09 was not available and

therefore the same was calculated by considering 75 % annual load factor. The

adopted values of annual load factor for the period from 2012-13 to 2016-17 (12th

plan) and 2017-18 to 2021-22 (13th plan) are 70% and 68% respectively.


Master Plan for the city is not available


The input data provided by MSEDCL was examined and the consultations were made

regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10

years. The steps initiated / planned by State Authorities to implement different schemes

which would have bearing on the electricity demand were analysed and also broadly taken

into consideration for the preparation of EPS. The EPS of Pune city has been undertaken

after taking into consideration the above aspects.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirement of Pune city is estimated to be 12819 MUs

and 21111 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13

th plan (2021-22) respectively. The

peak load requirements of the city is estimated to be 2091 MW and 3544 MW by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The total electricity consumption is

expected to be 11625 MU by end of 12th plan and 19241 MU by end of 13

th plan. The

100

Transmission & Distribution losses of the city are expected to be brought down to 9.31% by

end of 12th plan and further reduced gradually to 8.85% by end of 13

th plan.

The pattern of utilization of the electric energy in 2009-10 indicates that the industries

category contributes around 37.58 % followed by domestic category 28.62 %, commercial

category 19.09 % and others 14.71 %. The EPS results indicates that by end of 12th plan,

the utilization in industries and others category are expected to decrease to 36.38 % and

13.66 % respectively whereas the utilisation in commercial category would increase to

20.81 % and utilisation in domestic category is expected to remain constant.

Annexure P indicates the category wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption,

T&D losses, electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of utilization for 12th & 13

th

plan period for the Pune city.

The details of EPS results are described below.


The total electrical energy requirement of the City has been arrived by adding T&D losses in

the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level. The slightly higher growth in the

category of domestic, commercial and industrial has been considered to wipe out the

present shortage in the city.

The total energy requirement of the city during the year 2009-10 was 6458 MUs which is

expected to increase to 12819 MUs and 21111 MUs for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22. The

compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would be around 10.56 %

and 10.49 % during 12th & 13

th plan respectively. The year wise energy requirement for 12

th

& 13th plan period is shown in fig. P-1.�

Fig.P-1 : Electrical Energy Requirement in MU


According to the data furnish by the MSEDCL, the Peak Demand of City (actual) was 1027

MW, 1077 MW and 1173 MW during 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12 respectively and is

expected to grow at the rate of 12.25 % and 11.13% during 12th plan and 13

th plan

respectively in spite of 9.37% actual growth from 2009-10 to 2010-11. As the result of the

101

study of pattern of utilization of various categories and the present shortage in the city, the

peak electric load will be 2091 MW and 3544 MW by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13

th

(2021-22)plan respectively. The year wise growth of peak electric load of city during 12th and

13th plan is illustrated in fig. P-2

Fig. P-2 :Peak Electrical Load in MW


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2009-10 was 5773 MUs and is


respectively with the annual growth rate of 9.93 %. The category wise growth in electricity

consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig. P-3.

Fig. P-3 : Category wise Energy consumption in MU

From the utilisation pattern for the year 2009-10, it can be seen that the highest energy is

consumed by industries category (37.58%) followed by domestic (28.62%), commercial

(19.09%) and other remaining categories (14.71%).

The pattern of utilization at the end of 12th & 13

TH Plan would be 29.14 % & 29.35 % in

domestic, 20.81 % & 21.97 % in commercial, 36.38 % and 35.63 % in industrial sector and

102

13.66 % & 13.5 % in others (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation,

railway and bulk consumers) for 12th & 13

th plan respectively. The consumption pattern for

various sectors as on 2009-10 and as envisaged by end of 12th plan & 13

th plan is illustrated

in fig P-4.

. Fig. P-4 : Consumption Pattern For Indore City


The T & D losses for Pune during the year 2009-10 was 10.61% which is expected

to reduce to 9.31% and 8.85% by the end of 12th

plan and 13th

plan period

respectively. The year wise pattern of reduction in T & D losses envisaged as per

EPS is indicated in Fig. P-5.

Fig. P-5 : T & D Losses in Percentage


6.1 DOMESTIC CATEGORY The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 968 MUs and 1652 MUs during

the year 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past energy consumption

trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major development plans proposed in the

city, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 6.5% per year during

the 12th and 13th plan. The energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of

10.76% during 12th and 13th plan period.

103

The projected energy consumption under this category for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-

22 is indicated in Fig.P-6.

Fig. P-6 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 334 MUs and 1102 MUs

during the year 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past energy

consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major development plans in

energy consumption, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 7.5%

per year during the 12th and 13th plan respectively. The specific energy consumption is

expected to increase at the rate of 4% per year during 12th and 13th plan period. The

energy consumption would grow by 11.80% during 12th & 13th plan period which includes

the impact of important development projects.



Fig. P-7 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector was 1379 MUs and 2169 MUs during

the year 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. The actual CAGR in industrial sector (which

including (LT & HT industries) was 7.84%. Keeping in view the present infrastructural

development in the city in near future, the higher growth has been adopted to cope up with

104

the proposed development activities. The Energy consumption in industrial sector will be

4230 MUs and 6856 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13

th (2021-22) plan respectively

which is expected to increase at the rate of 10.49% and 10.14% per year during the 12th

and 13th plan period respectively.



Fig. P-8 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Industrial Category


Categories included in others are public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railways and

non-industrial.The electrical energy consumption in others was 482 MUs and 849 MUs

during the year 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. Electrical Energy Consumption in these

sectors will be 1588 MUs and 2512 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13

th (2021-22)

plan period respectively which is expected to be increase at the rate of 9.55% and 9.60% per

year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively.



Fig. P-9 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Category

7. CONCLUSION

Pune with 50.49 lakh population is having large residential, commercial and industrial

setup. In Pune highest energy is consumed by industrial category of consumers. The

total electricity consumption of 5773 MUs during the year 2009-10 is expected to

increase to 11625 MU and 19241 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22

105

respectively with the annual growth rate of 10.553%.The growth of electrical energy

demand is mainly due to increase in population, industries, infrastructure and

purchasing capacity. The utilisation of energy in commercial category and domestic

category would increase by 1.16% and 0.21% respectively from the end of 12th

plan to

end of 13th

plan whereas the utilisation in industries and others category would

decrease by 0.75% and 0.61% respectively from the end of 12th

plan to end of 13th

plan.




12th plan period.

�

106

Appendix P (Page-1of 2)

Distribution Network of Pune

(1) Ganesh Khind Urban Circle

�

107

Appendix P (Page-2of 2)

108

&��

��&�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

%124

!"22

!!4%

!3#3

!'&!

2"4#

2211

2'42

3%4&

3&"3

4"##

4&31

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

%!2#

%214

%43#

%'2!

%#2&

!%&3

!3!"

!'"4

2"!3

221%

2'1"

3!!&

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g'4

'#

13

11

#2

#1

%"2

%"1

%%2

%%#

%!4

%2%

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s !2%

!42

!'1

2"4

224

2&'

3"2

33!

314

42!

413

&3%

Irri

gati

on

&

'1

1#

%"

%"

%%

%!

%2

%2

%3

Ind

ust

ries

LT

21"

3%1

34#

4"3

442

&"'

&&4

'!#

'#1

1'3

#4&

%"34

Ind

ust

ries

HT

%#3#

!%4#

!21#

!&32

!#!!

2!!1

24&3

2#23

322#

3'14

4!'3

41%"

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

!!

!2

22

22

22

22

Bu

lk S

up

ply

&"3

&&3

'2"

1"3

113

#'!

%"&#

%%'&

%!#3

%3!2

%4&&

%'!!

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

&2!%

'"""

''4"

14'#

#3#4

%"4"'

%%&!4

%!1&%

%3!!&

%4'23

%'3""

%#!3%

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U&#3

'&"

12!

#%%

##'

%"#%

%%#3

%2"&

%3!#

%4&2

%'"#

%1&#

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%#-1

##-'

##-&

##-&

"#-4

"#-3

%#-2

%#-!

!#-%

2#-"

21-#

31-1

4

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U'"%4

''&"

141!

#3#"

%"3#!

%%4#1

%!1%#

%3%&'

%4&43

%'!#'

%#%"#

!%%%%

Al

Ld

Ft

%'3

21

'4

4!

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

'"

""

&1

""

&1

""

&1

""

&1

""

&1

""

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

'3-2

1'4-4

!'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"'"-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"&1-"

"

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

%"''

%%'2

%3""

%431

%'%%

%1#%

!"#%

!2'1

!&!1

!#"3

2!"1

2433

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c2

9.0

32

9.0

42

9.0

52

9.0

62

9.0

92

9.1

12

9.1

42

9.1

82

9.2

22

9.2

62

9.3

02

9.3

5

Co

mm

.1

9.6

01

9.7

91

9.9

82

0.1

82

0.3

92

0.6

02

0.8

12

1.0

32

1.2

62

1.4

92

1.7

32

1.9

7

Ind

us

trie

s3

6.8

43

6.8

03

6.7

53

6.6

83

6.6

03

6.5

03

6.3

83

6.2

53

6.1

23

5.9

63

5.8

03

5.6

3

Oth

ers

14

.53

14

.37

14

.22

14

.07

13

.93

13

.79

13

.66

13

.53

13

.41

13

.28

13

.17

13

.05

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

109

Electric Power Survey NAGPUR CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Nagpur is popularly known as Orange City which enjoys an enviable position in the

country being practically at the geographical centre of India. Nagpur is the second

capital of Maharashtra and the winter session of Maharashtra Legislative Assembly

is held in Nagpur. It is a major centre of administrative, political, commercial and

educational activities. All major Highways and Railways pass via Nagpur; this has

resulted into the city being major Trade and Transportation centre. The total area of

city is 217.56 sq.km. The population density at present is 11534 person per sq. km.

The historical population and decadal growth of population of Nagpur city are as

given below.


As it is located at centre of Indian peninsula far from the Bay of Bengal and the

Arabian Sea, Nagpur has a tropical wet and dry climate with dry conditions prevailing

for most of the year. It receives an annual rainfall of 1,205 mm from monsoon rains

during June to September. Summers are extremely hot lasting from March to June,

with maximum temperatures occurring in May. Winter lasts from November to

January, during which temperatures can drop below 10 °C.


Nagpur has been the main center of commerce in the Vidarbha region since early

days and is an important trading location. Nagpur's economy is currently recovering

from past slowdown. The city is one of the most competitive city in the country . The

city is important for the banking sector as it hosts the regional office of Reserve Bank

of India, which was opened on 10 September 1956. Sitabuldi market in central

Nagpur, known as the Heart of the city, is the major commercial market area. The

Butibori industrial area is one of the largest in Asia in terms of area. The units in

Butibori include the power transmission company, cement, casting etc. Koradi

Thermal Power Station and Khaparkheda Thermal Power Station are the two major

thermal power stations located near Nagpur and operated by MSPGCL.The Hingna

industrial estate located on the western fringes of the city is made up of around 900

small and medium industrial units.

110

2. POWER SCENARIO

The distribution of power to the Nagpur City is under purview of Maharashtra State Electricity

Distribution Co. Ltd. (MSEDCL) after unbundling of Maharashtra State Electricity Board. The

total electricity consumption of the city was 1590 MU in year 2009-10. During the last five

years, the city has observed more or less steady annual growth rate of 6 -12 % in terms of

electrical energy consumption. The peak electric load of the city was 262 MW during the

year 2009-10. A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of

Nagpur is given at Appendix N.


During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Nagpur, the consultations were made

with the MSETCL / MSEDCL.


below:

Actual annual load factor for the year 2009-10 and 2010-11 (calculated based on

actual peak demand) was 88.44% and 85.39% respectively which was quite high and

therefore MSEDCL was requested to reconsider the figures of peak load for the

above period, however it was intimated that the submitted data were in order.

The peak load of city for the period from 2003-04 to 2008-09 was not available and

therefore the same was calculated by considering 85 % annual load factor. The

adopted values of annual reduction in annual load factor for the period from 2012-13

to 2021-2022 (12th plan & 13th plan) is 1.6% due to which annual load factor is

expected to reduce to 75.79 % and 67.79% by the end of 12th plan & 13th plan

respectively.


Master Plan for the city was not available.


The input data provided by MSEDCL was examined and the consultations were

made regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity

demand in next 10 years. The steps initiated / planned by State Authorities to

implement different schemes which would have bearing on the electricity demand

were analysed and also broadly taken into consideration for the preparation of EPS.

The EPS of Nagpur city has been undertaken after taking into consideration the

above aspects.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirements of Nagpur city is estimated to be

3193 MUs and 4820 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The peak load requirement of the city is estimated to be 481 MW and

812 MW by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The

total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 2655 MU by end of 12th

111

plan and 4200 MU by end of 13th plan. The Transmission & Distribution losses of the

city are expected to be brought down to 16.85% by end of 12th plan and further

reduced gradually to 12.85% by end of 13th plan.


category contributes 43.79% followed by industries category 25.83%, commercial

category 17.92% and others 12.46%. The EPS results indicates that by end of 12th

plan, the utilization in domestic and commercial category are expected to increase

to 44.98 % and 21.23 % respectively whereas the utilisation in industries category

and others category would decrease to 22.99% and and 10.80 % respectively.

Annexure-N-1 indicates the category wise/year wise details of the electricity


utilization for 12th & 13th plan period.



The total electrical energy requirement of the City has been arrived by adding T&D

losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level. The slightly




which is expected to increase to 3193 MUs and 4820 MUs for the year 2016-17 and

2021-22. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would

be around 6.68 % and 8.58 % during 12th & 13th plan respectively. The year wise

energy requirement for 12th & 13th plan period is shown in fig. N-1.

Fig. N-1: Electrical Energy Requirement in MU

112


According to the data furnish by the MSEDCL, the Peak Demand of City for 2009-

10 and 2010-11 was 262 MW and 290 MW respectively which is expected to grow at

the rate of 8.84 % and 11.03% during 12th plan and 13th plan respectively . As the

result of the study of pattern of utilization of various categories and the present

shortage in the city, the peak electric load will be 481 MW and 812 MW by the end of

12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22)plan respectively.

The year wise growth of peak electric load of Indore city during 12th and 13th plan is illustrated in fig. N-2

Fig. N-2: Peak Electrical Load in MW




17 and 2021-22 respectively with the annual growth rate of 8.43 %.

The category wise growth in electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig. N-3.

Fig. N-3 : Category wise Energy consumption in MU

113


energy is consumed by domestic category (43.79%) followed by industries (25.83%),

commercial (17.92%) and other remaining categories (12.46%).

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th & 13TH Plan would be 44.98 % & 46.08 %

in domestic, 21.23 % & 23.92 % in commercial, 22.99 % and 21.16 % in industrial

sector and 10.80 % & 8.83% in others (which includes public lighting, public water

works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers) for 12th & 13th plan respectively.

The consumption pattern for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as envisaged by end

of 12th plan & 13th plan is illustrated in fig N-4.

. Fig. N-4 : Consumption Pattern For Nagpur City


The actual T & D losses for Nagpur during the year 2009-10 and 2010-11 was

21.65% which is expected to reduce to 16.85% and 12.85% by the end of 12th plan

and 13th plan period respectively. The year wise pattern of reduction in T & D losses

envisaged as per EPS is indicated in Fig. N-5.

Fig. N-5 : T & D Losses in Percentage



The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 422 MUs and 696 MUs

during the year 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past energy

114


plans proposed in the city, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the

rate of 5% and 6% per year during 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The

energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 8.15% and 10.14% per

year during 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The projected energy

consumption under this category for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated

in Fig.N-6.

Fig. N-6 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

6.2 COMMERCIAL





the rate of the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 5% and

6% per year during 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The specific energy

consumption is also expected to increase the number of consumers are expected to

increase at the rate of 5% and 6% per year during 12th and 13th plan period

respectively. The energy consumption would grow by 10.25% and 12.26% during

12th & 13th plan period respectively which includes the impact of important

development projects.

The projected energy consumption under this category for the period from 2010-11

to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig.N-7.

Fig. N-7 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

115

6.3 INDUSTRIAL



sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was 4.21%. Keeping in view the

present infrastructural development in the city in near future, the higher growth has

been adopted to cope up with the proposed development activities. Energy

consumption in industrial sector will be 611 MUs and 889 MUs by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively which is expected to increase at the

rate of 5.95% and 7.80% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

The projected energy consumption under this category for the period from 2010-11

to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig.N-8.

Fig. N-8 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Industrial Category




MUs and 198 MUs during the year 2004-05 and 2009-10 respectively. Electrical

Energy Consumption in these sectors will be 287 MUs and 371 MUs by the end of

12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan period respectively which is expected to be

increase at the rate of 5.44% and 5.28% per year during the 12th and 13th plan

period respectively. The projected energy consumption under this category for the

period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. N-9.

116

Fig. N 9 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Category

7. CONCLUSION

Nagpur with 24.97 lakh population (as per provisional census- 2011) is having

comparatively largest domestic consumers. In Nagpur, the highest energy is

consumed by domestic category of consumers. The total electricity consumption of the

city was 1700 MUs during the year 2010-11 and is expected to increase to 2655 MU

and 4200 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively with the annual

growth rate of 8.43%.The growth of electrical energy demand is mainly due to increase

in population, increase in industrialisation industries, infrastructure and purchasing

capacity . The utilisation of energy in domestic category and commercial category

would increase by 1.10% and 2.69% respectively from the end of 12th plan to end of

13th plan whereas the utilisation in industries and others category would decrease by

1.83% and 1.97% respectively from the end of 12th plan to end of 13th plan.




12th plan period.

117

APPENDIX-N (Page 1 of 3)

118


119


120

*/40��

��*�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

'3&

1"'

1'2

#33

%"!%

%%"3

%%#3

%2%%

%334

%4#2

%'4&

%#2&

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

2%3

23&

21!

3!%

3&3

4%%

4&3

&2"

'"1

'#&

1#3

%""4

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g3%

33

3'

4"

42

4'

&%

&4

&1

'!

'4

'#

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 33

34

3&

3'

31

3#

4"

4!

42

43

44

4'

Irri

gati

on

%

%%

%%

%%

%%

%%

%

Ind

ust

ries

LT

%"&

%%!

%%1

%!3

%2%

%21

%34

%44

%&4

%'&

%11

!"%

Ind

ust

ries

HT

2!4

234

2&&

211

3%!

321

3&4

4""

43%

41&

&24

&11

Ra

ilw

ay t

ract

ion

""

""

""

""

""

""

Bu

lk S

up

ply

%!2

%2%

%21

%3'

%4&

%&4

%'4

%14

%#&

!"1

!!%

!23

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

%'""

%1!#

%#'"

!%!%

!!14

!3&2

!&44

!1#1

2%'1

231&

21!&

3!""

T&

D lo

ss

es

-M

U3'"

31!

3#3

4"&

4%'

4!1

421

443

4'!

41#

&"4

&%#

T&

D lo

ss

es

-in

%!%-&

4!"-1

4!"-"

4%#-!

4%1-3

4%'-&

4%&-1

4%&-"

4%4-!

4%3-3

4%2-&

4%!-1

4

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U!%&#

!2%%

!3&2

!&!'

!1"!

!##%

2%#2

234!

2'3#

3"'4

332"

31!"

Al

Ld

Ft

%14

2#

12

'#

1!

%#

1"

4#

'1

##

''

2#

'4

'#

'3

%#

'!

4#

'"

##

&#

2#

&'

'#

��

��

�� !

�"# #� ��"#" �""!

$�%��&��'��(��

��))��(��*��*��)&��*�+�*��,��)�*��

*-�&��.��-

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

14-2

#12-'

#1!-%

#1"-4

#'1-#

#''-2

#'4-'

#'3-%

#'!-4

#'"-#

#&#-2

#&'-'

#

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

!#"

2%4

23!

2'!

3"4

33%

31%

42%

4#"

&44

'!#

1%!

��

��

� �

��

��

Ca

teg

ory

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

Do

me

sti

c4

3.9

14

4.1

34

4.3

34

4.5

14

4.6

84

4.8

44

4.9

84

5.2

34

5.4

74

5.6

94

5.8

94

6.0

8

Co

mm

.1

8.4

71

8.9

21

9.3

71

9.8

32

0.2

92

0.7

62

1.2

32

1.7

62

2.2

92

2.8

32

3.3

82

3.9

2

Ind

us

trie

s2

5.3

52

4.9

42

4.5

42

4.1

42

3.7

52

3.3

72

2.9

92

2.5

92

2.2

32

1.8

82

1.5

22

1.1

6

Oth

ers

12

.27

12

.01

11

.77

11

.52

11

.28

11

.04

10

.80

10

.43

10

.01

9.6

09

.21

8.8

3

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

121

Electric Power Survey GREATER MUMBAI CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Mumbai is the commercial and entertainment capital of India. The city offer higher

standard of living, attracting migrants from all over India. The city is one of the most

populous cities in India. According to the 2011 census, the population of Mumbai

was 1,84,14,288. The total area of the city is approximately 603.4 square kilometre

with the population density of about 30,187 persons per square kilometer. The total

area of Mumbai is 603.4 square kilometer, of this, the island city spans

67.79 square kilometer, while the suburban district spans 370 square kilometer,

together accounting for 437.71 square kilometre under the administration of

Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). The remaining area belongs to

Defence, Mumbai Port Trust, Atomic Energy Commission and Borivali National

Park, which are out of the jurisdiction of the BMC.


Mumbai lies at the mouth of the Ulhas River on the western coast, in the coastal

region known as the Konkan. Mumbai is bounded by the Arabian Sea to the west.

Many parts of the city lie just above sea level, with elevations ranging from 10 m to

15 m the city has an average elevation of 14 m. Mumbai has a tropical wet and dry

climate with seven months of dryness and peak of rains in July. The cooler season

from December to February is followed by the summer season from March to June.

The period from June to about the end of September constitutes the south-west

monsoon season, and October and November form the post-monsoon season.

Between June and September, the south west monsoon rains lash the city. The

average annual temperature is 27.2 °C, and the average annual precipitation is

2,167 mm.


Mumbai is India's largest city (by population) and is the financial and commercial

capital of the country. It serves as an economic hub of India, contributing factory

employment, industrial output and income tax collections.

Many of India's numerous conglomerates (including Larsen and Toubro, State Bank

of India, Life Insurance Corporation of India, Tata Group, Godrej and Reliance),

and five of the Fortune Global 500 companies are based in Mumbai. Many foreign

banks and financial institutions also have branches in this area, with the World

Trade Centre being the most prominent one.

Until the 1970s, Mumbai owed its prosperity largely to textile mills and the seaport,

but the local economy has since been diversified to include engineering, diamond-

polishing, healthcare and information technology. Mumbai is one of the most

expensive office markets in the world.

State and central government employees make up a large percentage of the city's

workforce. Mumbai also has a large unskilled and semi-skilled self-employed

122

population, who primarily earn their livelihood as hawkers, taxi drivers, mechanics

and other such blue collar professions. The port and shipping industry is well

established, with Mumbai Port being one of the oldest and most significant ports in

India. Most of India's major television and satellite networks, as well as its major

publishing houses, are headquartered in Mumbai. The centre of the Hindi movie

industry, Bollywood, is the largest film producer in India and one of the largest in

the world.

2. POWER SCENARIO


The distribution of supply of power to the Greater Mumbai City is under purview of

Reliance Infrastructure Distribution (RINFRA-D), TATA Power Co. Ltd.(TPCL),

Bombay Electric Supply and Transport (BEST) and Maharashtra State Electricity

Distribution Co. Ltd. (MSEDCL) after unbundling of Maharashtra State Electricity

Board. The DISCOM wise distribution of power during the year 2009-10 are:

RINFRA-D - 8.32 BUs (48.60%), TPCL – 3.047 BUs (17.80%), BEST – 4.12 BUs

(24%) and MSEDCL – 1.634 BUs (9.60%). The BEST supply power to island city

whereas TATA supply power to both island and suburban area. The RINFRA-D and

MSEDCL both supply power to only suburban area of Greater Mumbai. The category

wise supply of energy by each DISCOM during 2009-10 is illustrated in table M-1.

Table - M1

SUMMARY OF CATEGORY WISE SUPPLY OF ENERGY DURING 2009-10RINFRA-D TPCL BEST MSEDCLNAME OF CATEGORY

MUs % MUs % MUs % MUs %

TOTAL

(MUs)

1. Domestic 4473 65 101 1% 1727 25 547 8 6849

2. Commercial & Misc. 2817 47 816 14 2069 35 284 5 5986

3. Public lighting 55 62 0 0 29 32 5 6 89


i) LT 6 44 0 0 6 48 1 8 13

ii) HT (demand< 1 MW) 5 49 0 1 4 41 1 9 11

iii) HT (demand>1 MW) 0 0 47 63 28 37 0 0 75

5. Irrigation

i) P/S 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 10 0.04

ii) LIS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6. Industries

i) LT 651 47 210 15 153 11 373 27 1387

ii) HT (demand< 1 MW) 112 39 27 9 27 9 124 43 290

iii) HT (demand>1 MW) 202 17 774 65 76 6 138 12 1190

7. Railway traction 0 0 824 97 0 0 27 3 851

8. Bulk Supply to 0 0 247 65 0 0 133 35 380

a) Non Industrial

Consumers

0 0 0 0

0

b) licencees 0 0 0 0 0

Total 8320 48.6 3047 17.8 4120 24.0 1634 9.6 17121

2.2 TOTAL UTILISATION OF POWER:

The total electricity consumption of the city was 17121 MU in year 2009-10. During

the last three years, the city has observed more or less steady annual growth rate of

4 -5 % in terms of electrical energy consumption. The peak electric load of the city

123

was 3151 MW (calculated) during 2009-10. A map of Greater Mumbai City showing

distribution areas of four distribution licensees is given at Appendix-M.


During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Greater Mumbai, the

consultations were made with different concerned state utilities of Maharashtra viz.

RINFRA-D , TPCL, BEST and MSEDCL in May 2012.

The main points discussed during the consultation with the state organizations

outlined below:

• The electricity consumption in respect of TPCL for the period from 2006-07

to 2008-09 are inclusive of sales of energy (almost 50% of total energy

consumption) to private licences like Railway, BARC etc. due to this

reason the value of T & D losses are as low as 0.63% during this period.

• As the electricity in Greater Mumbai city is being supplied by four DISCOMs,

the migration of consumers from one supplier to another has been taking

place since last few years due to inequality in rate of tariff. Due to this

migration phenomena, it was very difficult for them to project future growth

rate of numbers of consumers.

• RINFRA-D has stated that they are having limited generating capacity and

therefore it purchases power from other sources due to which the T & D

losses are slightly higher. The T & D losses in respect of RINFRA-D in

furnished data is 14.30% and 13.36 % for the year 2009-10 and 2021-22

respectively. The T& D losses constitutes 4.30% as transmission losses and

remaining as distribution losses.

• It has been observed by the DISCOMs that the trend of closing down of mills

and shifting of industries to commercial and real estate activity is going on in

the city. If it continue at the same pace, the consumption under industrial

category would not increase much during 12th plan and beyond.

• The peak demand of the city is highly dependent on seasonal whether

change. The occurrence of peak of day depend entirely upon the commercial

activities of the consumers and therefore it is normally registered between the

time period of 12.30 PM to 4.30 PM.

• In supply areas of BEST (South Mumbai), there is a declining trend in

consumption of electricity in industrial category during the period from 2003-

04 to 2009-10 due to closer of mills/ industries and migration of some of the

industries from the Southern Mumbai area.

• The higher rate of T & D losses (13.89%) in respect of BEST shown in

submitted data, includes 9% distribution losses and 4.5% transmission

losses.

124

• Some of the DISCOMs have chosen a single value of growth rate(GR) for all

category of consumers to predict future consumption. This methodology of

adopting same GR for each category is irrational as the rate of developments

of different sectors is different for different periods of time. Also the factors

responsible for increase / decrease in consumption of electricity are different

for different categories. It is also important to note that the growth rate

(positive /negative) in consumption in a particular category in respect of one

DISCOM may or may not be the same in respect of another DISCOM and

therefore the GR for a particular category of consumers be chosen by

carefully analysing the consolidated details of the entire city for a particular

category.

• Historical data of Year wise connected load in case of industrial categories

(contracted demand > 1MW) in respect of all DISCOMs were not available.

• It was submitted by RINFRA-D that due to re-categorisation made by MERC,

there are abnormal variations in numbers of consumer, connected load and

consumption in commercial and industries category of consumers. It was also

indicated that RINFRA-D do not have tariff category for public water works

and therefore data was prepared by RINFRA-D based on records available in

billing system for water & sewage pumping stations. Also in case of irrigation

category, partial data was available from RINFRA-D.

• The complete historical data of simultaneous peak demand of entire city for

the period from 2003-04 to 2009-10 was not available therefore the same was

estimated for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 by taking into account the

peak demand figures submitted by MSETCL for the period from 2003-04 to

2009-10 in which peak demand of MSEDCL licence area was not considered.

• Actual Annual Load Factor (ALF) for the year 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10

was 70.46 %, 69.05 % and 70.36 % respectively. Therefore Annual Load

Factor for the 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-22) was adopted as 70

% and 68 % respectively. This adopted values of ALF were used to work out

peak demand of the city for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22.


As per Master Plan prepared by Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority

(MMRDA), the salient features of the development of infrastructure to meet the

growing demand in various fields are as under:-

4.1 MUMBAI METRO

The Master Plan for Mumbai Metro along with phased implementation was approved

by the Authority of MMRDA. The Master Plan includes nine corridors covering a

length of 146.5 Kms, out of which 32.5 Kms is proposed underground and rest is

elevated.

The Master Plan has been divided in following phases for project implementation-

125

Sr. No. Phase Length in Km. Period of implementation

1 Phase -I 63.8 2006 - 2013

2 Phase -II 19.9 2011-2016

3 Phase -III 62.8 2016-2021

Total 146.5 2006-2021

4.2 MONORAIL

Considering the increase in population, increased travel demand in Mumbai city and

narrow road networks running through congested structures, there is a need of a

system which will occupy less space as well as reduce travel time. With the

objective, to support public rapid transit system such as suburban rail system and

metro rail system and where public rapid transit system is not available or impossible

to provide such system and where widening of roads is not possible due to

structures on either sides, Mono Rail system is proposed to be implemented by

MMRDA/GOM. MMRDA proposes to implement a proven and established Monorail

System in various parts of Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Implementation of

about 20 kms Monorail System from Sant Gadge Maharaj Chowk - Wadala -

Chembur station as a Pilot Project is under progress. Total Monorail Network of

135.21 kms is recommended for development from year 2011 to 2031 in phases and

priority wise. Mumbai’s first monorail corridor would be between Saint Gadge

Maharaj Chowk to Chembur Station-via-Wadala.

4.3 WADALA TRUCK TERMINAL& INTER STATE BUS TERMINAL

The basic objective of developing the Truck Terminal is to decongest South Mumbai

by shifting the existing transport companies offices and godowns, which are today

concentrated in B and C Wards in South Mumbai causing severe traffic congestion.

It will also help to rationalize the movement of truck traffic on the city roads. The

Truck Terminal currently under development by the MMRDA at Wadala, Mumbai will

have for the first time a centralized facility for the transport of goods by road.

Designed for a peak capacity of 3,000 trucks at a time, the truck terminal will have

offices and godowns of transport companies, easy loading and unloading facilities,

large parking areas for idle trucks and other related facilities like banks, restaurants,

dormitories for essential staff, dispensaries, motor spare part shops, petrol / HSD

pumps, repair garages, workshops, etc. In order to ensure proper regulation and

management of this new Truck Terminal, legislation for setting up Truck Terminal

Authority has been enacted by the State Government.

4.4 RENTAL HOUSING

The Govt. of Maharashtra has appointed MMRDA as the Implementing Agency for

Rental Housing Projects in the MMR in 2008. The MC, MMRDA is the Chief

Executive Officer for such projects. The Rental Housing Projects undertaken by the

MMRDA are of ‘Vital Public Purpose ’which will help in Slum Prevention Programme.


The input data (upto 2009-10) as provided by TPCL, RINFRA-D, BEST and

MSEDCL was examined and the consultations were made regarding the factors

governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10 years. The

steps initiated/planned by State Authorities to implement different schemes which

126

would have bearing on the electricity demand were also broadly taken into

consideration for the preparation of EPS.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirements of Greater Mumbai city is

estimated to be 30568 MUs and 43039 MUs by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-22) respectively. The peak load requirements of the city is estimated to

be 4985 MW and 7225 MW by end of 12th

plan (2016-17) and 13th

plan (2021-22)

respectively. The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of

27346 MU by end of 12th

plan and 39023 MU by end of 13th

plan. The Transmission

& Distribution losses of the city are expected to be brought down to 10.54% by end

of 12th

plan and further reduced gradually to 9.33% by end of 13th

plan.


domestic category contributes around 40% followed by commercial category

34.96%, industrial 16.75% and others 8.29%. The EPS results indicates that by end

of 12th

plan, the utilization in industrial category, domestic category and others

category are expected to decrease to 16.24 %, 36.59 % and 6.89 % respectively

whereas the utilisation in commercial category would increase to 40.28 %.

Annexure M-1 to M-4 indicates summaries of forecast comprising the category

wise/year wise details of the electricity consumption for the period from 2010-11 to

2021-22 in respect of RINFRA-D, TATA, BEST and MSEDCL respectively. Whereas

Annexure M-5 indicates summary of forecast comprising the category wise/year

wise details of the electricity consumption, T&D losses, electric energy requirement,

peak load and pattern of utilization for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 in respect

of Greater Mumbai City.



The total electrical energy requirement of the City is the summation of energy

requirement of all the DISCOMs whereas the energy requirement of each DISCOM

is the summation of energy of all the categories forecasted category wise for the

corresponding license area and T & D losses at consumer level. The slightly higher

growth in the category of domestic, commercial and industrial has been considered

to wipe out the present shortage in the city.



and 2021-22. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement

would be around 7.08 % and 6.69 % during 12th

& 13th

plan respectively. The year

wise energy requirement of city and each DISCOM is given in Fig. M-1.

127

Fig. M-1 : Electrical Energy Requirement in MU


According to the data furnish by the MSETCL, the Peak Demand of City was 2562

MW during 2004-05 which rose to 3151 MW by 2009-10 and is expected to grow at

the rate of 6.69 % and 7.70% during 12th

plan and 13th plan respectively. As the

result of the study of pattern of utilization of various categories and the present

shortage in the city, the peak electric load will be 4985 MW and 7225 MW by the end

of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22)plan respectively. The year wise growth of peak

electric load of Greater Mumbai city during 12th

and 13th

plan is illustrated in fig. M-2

Fig. M-2 :Peak Electrical Load in MW



MUs and is expected to increase to 27346 MU and 39023 MU during the year

2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively with the annual growth rate of 7.08 %. The

category wise growth in electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig. M-3.

�

Fig. M-3 : Category wise Energy consumption in MU

128


5.4.1 FOR DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF RINFRA-D, TPL, BEST & MSEDCL

(1) RINFRA-D

The consumption pattern for RINFRA –D for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as


plan & 13th

plan is illustrated in fig M-4. From the utilisation


domestic category (53.76%) followed by commercial (33.85%), industries (11.59%)

and other remaining categories (0.79%). The pattern of utilization at the end of 12th

&

13TH

Plan reveal that the consumption in domestic category would be 47.71% &

43.10%, in commercial category 41.70% & 47.35% , in industrial category 10.01%

and 9.09% and in others category 0.58% and 0.45% (which includes public lighting,

public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers).

Fig. M-4 : Consumption Pattern For RINFRA-D

(2) TATA

The consumption pattern for TATA for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as


plan & 13th



others category (36.71%) followed by industries (33.19%), commercial (26.78%),

and domestic categories (3.32%). The pattern of utilization at the end of 12th

& 13TH



and 31.18% and in others category 28.03% and 23.10% (which includes public

lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers).

Fig. M-5 : Consumption Pattern For TATA

(3) BEST

129

The consumption pattern for BEST for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as


plan & 13th



commercial category (50.22%) followed by domestic (41.92%), industries (6.23%)


&

13TH



and 4.64% and in others category 1.63% and 1.61% (which includes public lighting,

public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers).

Fig. M-6 : Consumption Pattern For BEST

(4) MSEDCL

The consumption pattern for MSEDCL for various sectors as on 2009-10 and as


plan & 13th



industries (38.86%) followed by domestic category (33.51%), commercial (17.40%),


& 13TH



and 36.01% and in others category 10.23% and 8.54% (which includes public

lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers).

Fig. M-7 : Consumption Pattern For MSEDCL

5.4.2 FOR COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION AREA OF GREATER MUMBAI CITY

The consumption pattern for entire Greater Mumbai city for various sectors as on

2009-10 and as envisaged by end of 12th

plan & 13th

plan is illustrated in fig M-8.


energy is consumed by domestic category (40.00%) followed by commercial

(34.96%), industries (16.75%) and other remaining categories (8.29%).

130

Fig. M-8 : Consumption Pattern For Greater Mumbai City

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th

& 13TH

Plan would be 36.59% & 34.35 %

in domestic, 40.28 % & 43.92 % in commercial, 16.24 % and 15.73 % in industrial

sector and 6.89 % & 5.99 % in others (which includes public lighting, public water

works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers) for 12th

& 13th

plan respectively.


5.5.A. RINFRA-D

The T & D losses for the year 2009-10 was 14.30% which is expected to reduce

gradually to 12.33% and 11.00% by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22)

plan respectively.

5.5.B. TATA

The T & D losses for the year 2009-10 was 0.66% which would increase to 5% by

2010-11 and would remain constant during by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th


5.5.C. BEST


gradually to 11.42% and 10.00% by by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th (2021-22)

plan respectively.

5.5.D. MSEDCL


gradually to 9.49% and 7.76% by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan

respectively.

5.5.E. GREATER MUMBAI CITY

The T & D losses for Greater Mumbai during the year 2009-10 was 11.84% which is

expected to reduce to 10.54% and 9.33% by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th


The year wise and DISCOM wise pattern of reduction in T & D losses envisaged as

per EPS is indicated in Fig. M-9.

131

Fig. M-9 : T & D Losses in Percentage



The electrical energy consumption for the city in domestic category was 5568.6 MUs



development plans proposed in the city , the number of consumers are expected to

increase at the rate of 3.5% , 12% 3% and 5% per year in the distribution areas of

RINFRA-D,TATA,BEST and MSEDCL respectively during the 12th and 13th plan .

Whereas the specific energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 2% ,

4%, 0.5% and 4% per year in the distribution areas of RINFRA-D,TATA,BEST and

MSEDCL respectively during the 12th and 13th plan. The total energy consumption

of the city is expected to increase at the rate of 5.67% and 6.02% during 12th and

13th plan period. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this

category for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. M-10.

Fig. M-10 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

132

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 3222 MUs and

5986.2 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2009-10 respectively. Considering the past


development plans in energy consumption, the number of consumers are expected

to increase at the rate of 4.5% , 5% 1% and 6% per year in the distribution areas of

RINFRA-D,TATA,BEST and MSEDCL respectively during the 12th and 13th plan.

Whereas the specific energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of

5.75%, 4.5%, 5% and 5% per year in the distribution areas of RINFRA-

D,TATA,BEST and MSEDCL respectively during the 12th and 13th plan. The total

energy consumption of the city would grow by 9.02% and 9.24% during 12th & 13th

plan period respectively which includes the impact of important development

projects. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category for

the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. M-11.

Fig. M-11 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

6.3 INDUSTRIAL



sector (which includesLT & HT industries) was negative for RINFRA-D and BEST,

and 3.45% and 9.27% in case of TATA & MSEDCL respectively. Whereas the actual

CAGR for the city was 3.72%. Keeping in view the present infrastructural

development in the city in near future, the higher growth has been adopted to cope

up with the proposed development activities. The adopted growth rate for the 12th

plan for RINFRA-D, TATA, BEST and MSEDCL is 4.85%, 2.23%, 7.25% and 8.24%

respectively. Whereas the growth rate figures for 13th

plan for RINFRA-D, TATA,

BEST and MSEDCL is 5.68%, 2.22%, 7.24% and 8.08% respectively. As a result,

the energy consumption in industrial sector for the city is expected to be 4440 MUs

133

and 6140 MUs by the end of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan respectively

which is expected to increase at the rate of 6.51% and 6.69% per year during the

12th and 13th plan period respectively. The DISCOM wise projected energy

consumption under this category for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated

in Fig. M-12.

Fig. M-12 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Industrial Category


The categories included in others are public lighting, public water works, irrigation,



CAGR for the entire city in these sectors was 6.39%. Electrical Energy

Consumption by the city in these sectors will be 2044 MUs and 2524 MUs by the end

of 12th

(2016-17) and 13th

(2021-22) plan period respectively which is expected to be

increase at the rate of 4.20% and 4.30% during the 12th and 13th plan period

respectively. The DISCOM wise projected energy consumption under this category

for the period from 2010-11 to 2021-22 is indicated in Fig. M-13.

Fig. M-13 : Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Category

134

7. CONCLUSION

Greater Mumbai with 18.414 million population is having large residential,

commercial and industrial setup. It is one of the few cities in country which has long

experience of private power distribution management. The electrical energy

requirement of Greater Mumbai city is highest among all the 13 mega cities which

was 19421 MUs during the year 2009-10 and is expected to increase to 30568 MU

and 43039 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively with the annual

growth rate of 6.85%. Energy requirement by the domestic & commercial consumers

of the city is also highest among all the mega cities. Also the percentage of energy

consumption by the commercial category consumers of the city is highest among all

the 13 mega cities. The growth of electrical energy demand is mainly due to increase

in population, rapid growth of commercial activities, rapid urbanisation and increase

in purchasing power of population. The utilisation of energy in commercial category

would increase by 3.67% whereas the utilisation in domestic, industries and others

category decrease by 2.19%, 0.48% and 1% respectively from the end of 12th

plan to

end of 13th plan.

�

135

Appendix-M

MAP OF GREATER MUMBAI SHOWING DISTRIBUTION AREA OF DISCOMs

136

Mumbai

AnnexureM5



2010-1

12011-1

22012-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72017-1

82018-1

92019-2

02020-2

12021-2

2

Dom

esti

c7173

7574

8001

8455

8939

9455

10007

10596

11227

11902

12626

13404

Com

mer

cia

l &

Mis

c.6553

7139

7781

8483

9251

10093

11016

12026

13134

14348

15680

17141

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g96

98

101

103

106

109

112

115

118

121

125

128

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 102

107

112

117

123

129

135

141

147

154

161

169

Irri

ga

tio

n0

00

00

00

00

00

0

Ind

ust

ries

LT

1447

1555

1672

1798

1934

2081

2240

2412

2598

2799

3017

3253

Ind

ust

ries

HT

1591

1679

1772

1870

1974

2084

2200

2323

2453

2589

2734

2887

Rail

wa

y t

ract

ion

868

904

940

978

1018

1060

1103

1147

1194

1242

1293

1345

Bu

lk S

up

ply

395

415

436

459

483

508

535

563

593

625

659

695

Tota

l (

En

erg

y

Con

sum

pti

on

)18226

19472

20815

22264

23828

25519

27346

29323

31464

33782

36295

39023

T&

D lo

sses -

MU

2440

2635

2739

2849

2966

3090

3222

3362

3511

3669

3837

4016

T&

D lo

sses -

in %

11.81

11.92

11.63

11.35

11.07

10.80

10.54

10.29

10.04

9.80

9.56

9.33

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U20666

22107

23554

25113

26795

28609

30568

32685

34974

37451

40132

43039

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

cto

r -

%70.00

70.00

70.00

70.00

70.00

70.00

70.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

68.00

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

3370

3605

3841

4095

4370

4666

4985

5487

5871

6287

6737

7225

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Cate

go

ry2

01

0-1

12

01

1-1

22

01

2-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72016-1

72017-1

82018-1

92019-2

02020-2

1

Do

mesti

c39.3

638.9

038.4

437.9

837.5

137.0

536.5

936.1

435.6

835.2

334.7

934.3

5

Co

mm

.35.9

536.6

637.3

838.1

038.8

339.5

540.2

841.0

141.7

442.4

743.2

043.9

2

Ind

ustr

ies

16.6

716.6

116.5

516.4

816.4

016.3

216.2

416.1

516.0

515.9

515.8

515.7

3

Oth

ers

8.0

27.8

37.6

47.4

57.2

67.0

76.8

96.7

16.5

26.3

46.1

65.9

9

To

tal

100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0100.0

0


(201011to202122)



141

Electric Power Survey HYDERABAD CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Hyderabad is the capital of Andhra Pradesh State and is located on the banks of the

River Musi in the Deccan Plateau in southern India. The Greater Hyderabad city's

area is 650 Sq.Kms which is governed by Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation

(GHMC). The Greater Hyderabad City comprises of twin cities of Hyderabad and

Secunderabad , 10 Municipalities & 8 Panchayats of Ranga Reddy district and two

Municipalities in Medak district. The estimated population of Greater Hyderabad City

is 7.74 million as per 2011 census


Hyderabad has a combination of a tropical wet and dry climate that borders on a hot

semi-arid climate. Summers (March–June) are hot and humid with maximum

temperatures often exceed 40 °C between April and June. Winter lasts for only about

two-and-a-half months, during which the lowest temperature dips occasionally to 10

°C in December and January. Rains brought by the south-west summer monsoon lash

Hyderabad between June and September, supplying it with most of its annual rainfall

of 812 mm.

1.2 Industry & Economy

From 1950s to 1970s, Indian enterprises were established in the city, such as Bharat

Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL), National Mineral Development Corporation,

Bharat Electronics, Electronics Corporation of India Limited, Defence Research and

Development Organisation (DRDO), Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Andhra

Bank and State Bank of Hyderabad. This changed the economic pattern from

traditional manufacturing to a cosmopolitan industrial service sector Since 1990s, the

growth of information technology (IT), IT-enabled services, insurance and financial

institutions expanded the service sector. These primary economic activities boosted

ancillary sectors of trade and commerce, transport, storage, communication, real-

estate and retail. It is among the global centres of information technology for which it

is known as Cyberabad (Cyber City). The development of a township with

technological infrastructure called HITEC City prompted multinational companies to

establish facilities in Hyderabad. The city is home to more than 1300 IT firms,

including global conglomerates such as Microsoft (operating its largest R&D campus

outside the US), Google, IBM, Yahoo!, Dell, Facebook, and major Indian firms

including Mahindra Satyam, Infosys, TCS, Genpact and Wipro.

Hyderabad is known as the "City of Pearls" due to its role in the trade of those

precious jewels. Until the 18th century, the city was the only global trade center for

142

large diamonds. Many traditional and historical bazaars are located in the city. The

Laad Bazaar and nearby markets have shops that sell pearls, diamonds and other

traditional ware and cultural antiques. The commercial market structure of Hyderabad

is divided into 4 sectors—The Central Business Districts (CBD), the sub-central

business centres, the neighborhood business centres and local business centres.

Several central business districts are spread across the city.

2. POWER SCENARIO

The electricity distribution of Hyderabad city was earlier under the purview of

APSEB. As a consequence of restructuring of APSEB, specific corporations were

formed to deal with generation, transmission & distribution of electricity in the State.

APTRANSCO was formed in February 1999. The distribution of supply of power to

the Hyderabad City is under the purview of Andhra Pradesh Central Power

Distribution Company(APCDCL). The Peak Demand of City was 1639 MW during

2006-07 which rose to around 1938 MW by 2010-11. The total electricity

consumption of the city during the year 2010-11 was 10056 MUs.

The category wise Electric Energy consumption of Hyderabad for the year

2010-11is shown below:

Category wise Energy consumption for the year 2010-11

Category Energy Consumption in MUs % of Total

1. Domestic 3630 36.1

2. Commercial & Misc 2609 * 25.9

3. Public Lighting 236 2.3

4. Public Water Works i) LT

ii) HT 4644

0.450.44

5. Irrigation P/SLIS

4380

4.40

6. Industries i) LT ii) HT

6142366

6.123.5

iii) Railway Traction 74 0.74

Total 10057 100

* Inclusive of Bulk Supply

A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of

Hyderabad is given at Appendix – H.

143


For the purpose of electricity demand forecasting electric energy requirement, electric

energy consumption, peak electric load, T&D losses were obtained from Transmission

Corporation of Andhra Pradesh Limited and other utilities. The other

details/information regarding programme for development of infrastructure/steps

initiated for improvement of energy efficiency which would have impact on growth of

electricity demand was also discussed in the subsequent meetings. The main points

discussed during consultation with the state organizations are outlined below:

The area covered for this forecast is for Greater Hyderabad City which is

governed by GHMC.

Due to the rapid urbanization of the areas under GHMC, energy consumption of

irrigation category would reduce considerably in the 12th and 13th Plan. As

such it has been decided in the review meeting to reduce the No. of Pump sets

in the 12th and 13th Plan periods.

APTRANSCO has provided data for the city from the year 2003-04 onwards

upto the year 2010-11 (provisional). It has been decided to take the year 2010-

11 as the base year for the forecast.

The shortage of energy requirement for the year 2010-11 was 263 MUs which

is 2.5% of total energy requirements of Hyderabad.

Past analysis of data indicates that the growth in No. of consumers for

Domestic and Commercial category shows a decreasing trend. It has been

decided to maintain the same decreasing trend for Domestic and Commercial

consumers for the 12th and 13th plan period in the forecast also..

In the case of Public Lighting Category, it was informed that during the 12th

and 13th Plan utilisation of Solar Energy and LED Lighting systems are

planned to be undertaken. It has been decided to maintain the reducing trend in

Growth in connected load for this category also.

It has been decided to merge the Public Water works less than 1 MW category

and public water works more than 1 MW category in to a single Category as "

Public Water Works HT"

The energy requirement for the purposes Metro Rail Project has been taken into

account in the forecast as suggested by APTRANSCO and included in railway

traction category.

144

New SEZs are envisaged to come up within the limits of greater Hyderabad

during the next 10 years for which 6 Nos. of 220 KV sub-stations are proposed

to be provided to meet the electricity requirement.


As per master plan of Hyderabad the following development will affect the

demand of electricity in the city.

Hyderabad Metro Rail project in three high density corridors of the city viz.,

corridor-1 LB Nagar to Miapur, corridor-2 JBS to Falaknama ,corridor-3

Nagole to Shilparamam. The project has been awarded in September 2010 and

the preliminary works of the project in the 3 corridors are in progress. The total

power requirement of 150 MW is envisages for this project by the end of 12th

Plan.

New SEZs and Industrial parks are expected to come up within the limit of

greater Hyderabad during the next 10 years for which 6 Nos. of 220 KV sub-

stations are proposed to be provided to meet the electricity requirement. As per

information furnished to CEA , total of a 9 Nos of IPs with total load of 185

MVA are to be developed in Greater Hyderabad.

The details of existing and proposed Sub stations to meet the demand up to end

of 12th Plan is given below:

Number of Sub stations Sl.No. Sub stations Existing Proposed

( Up to FY 2016-17)

1 400 KV 3 Nos.(Mamidipally,Malkaram, Ghanapur)

4 Nos.(Manikonda, Narsapur, Maheswaram Yeddumailaram)

2 220KV 11 Nos. 15 Nos.

3 132 KV 22 Nos. 24 Nos.

4 33/11 KV 202 Nos. 64 Nos. ( during 2012-13 & 2013-14)

5 DTRs 42000 Nos. 3339 Nos. ( during 2012-13 & 2013-14)

35 urban centres have been proposed which will have mixed areas of

Residential, commercial and institutional developments and contains low,

medium and high rise residential areas.

145

Rail freight corridors have been proposed at Thimmapur, Bhongiri and

Ravulapally while logistic hubs will come up at Somaram, Rudraram and

Batasingaram


Based on the input data provided by APTRANSCO, and the consultations with

concerned State authorities, the EPS of Greater Hyderabad has been undertaken.

As per EPS, the total electric EER of Greater Hyderabad is assessed to be 20652 MUs

and 29730 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively.

The APEL of Greater Hyderabad is estimated to be 3375MW and 5039 MW by end of

12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The total electricity

consumption is expected to be of the order of 17967 MU by end of 12th plan and

26757 MU by end of 13th plan. The T&D losses of Hyderabad city are expected to be

brought down to 13% by end of 12th plan and further reduced gradually to 10% by

end of 13th plan.


domestic category contributes around 36% of total electricity consumption followed

by industrial category 30% and commercial category (25%) and balance 9% is an

account of other categories. The EPS results indicates that by end of 12th plan, the

utilization in domestic category is expected to remain steady at 36% whereas a slight

decrease to 29% in industrial category and an increase to 27% in commercial category

is anticipated By end of 13th plan, the utilization in domestic category and industrial

category is likely to remain steady at 36% and 29% respectively with slight increase

to 29% in the case of commercial category.

Annexure H-I indicates the category wise/year wise details of the electricity

consumption, T&D losses, electric energy requirement, peak electric load and pattern

of electricity utilization for 12th & 13th plan period.

5.1 ELCTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT

The total electrical energy requirement of the Greater Hyderabad has been arrived by

adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level.


which is likely to increase to 20652 MUs and 29730 MUs in the year 2016-17 and

2021-22 respectively. The CAGR of EER is 8.92% and 8.3% during 12th & 13th plan

respectively from the base year.

146

The year wise pattern of growth of EER of Greater Hyderabad during the 12th and

13th plan period is shown IN Fig-H-1

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Energy Requirement MUs 12369 13528 14674 16109 17417 19169 20652 22274 23977 25784 27699 29730

2010-

11

2011-

12

2012-

13

2013-

14

2014-

15

2015-

16

2016-

17

2017-

18

2018-

19

2019-

20

2020-

21

2021-

22

5.2 ANNUAL PEAK ELECTRIC LOAD

The Peak Electric Demand of Hyderabad was 1639 MW during 2006-07 which rose

to around 1938 MW by 2010-11. As per EPS in APEL is expected to grow @ 9% and

8.08% during 12the and 13th plan respectively from the base year 2010-11 whereas

the actual growth was 4.28% from 2006-07 to 2010-11. The APEL is assessed to be

3375 MW and 5039 MW by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan

respectively. The year wise pattern of growth of APEL of Hyderabad during 12th &

13th Plan is illustrated in Fig H-2.


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Series1 1938 2134 2331 2577 2806 3110 3375 3666 3975 4306 4660 5039


Fig H-1: Electrical Energy Requirement in MU

Fig H-2: Peak Electric Load in MW

147


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2010-11 was 10056 MUs

which is expected to increase to 17967 MU and 26757 MU during the year 2016-17

and 2021-22. The CAGR from the base year 2010-11 up to the end of 12th Plan is

10.16% and up to the end of 13th plan is 9.3%. The category wise break up of year

wise Electrical Energy consumption for the 12th & 13th plan period is illustrated

below in Fig H-3

Categorywise Energy Consumption in MUs

0.00

10000.00

20000.00

30000.00

Others 903.33 903.05 933.26 1140.69 1174.23 1516.03 1554.16 1593.55 1632.75 1674.28 1718.85 1765.09

Industries 2979.74 3363.22 3668.76 4002.55 4367.08 4764.94 5199.92 5636.58 6095.54 6592.67 7130.84 7714.09

Commerical 2543.00 2852.52 3189.49 3555.27 3951.09 4378.09 4837.31 5329.65 5855.89 6416.64 7015.70 7657.73

Domesic 3629.58 4008.23 4416.97 4857.00 5329.49 5835.52 6376.05 6951.92 7563.82 8212.24 8897.50 9619.72

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

From the study of utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11, it can be seen that the

highest energy is consumed in domestic category (36%) followed by industries (30%),

commercial (25%) and remaining (9%) is on account of other categories.

Consumption Pattern (2010-11)

36%

25%

30%

9%Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others

Fig H-3: Categorywise Energy Consumption in MUs

148


35%

27%

29%

9% Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others


35%

29%

29%

7% Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others

The results of EPS shows that by end of 12th Plan domestic category would accord

for 35% followed by industrial category 29% and commercial category would

consume 27% of total electricity consumption. By end of 13th Plan marginal increase

is anticipated in domestic category (36%) and 2% in increase in commercial category

is anticipated. The consumption pattern is illustrated in Fig-H-4


The T & D losses for Hyderabad city during the year 2010-11 was 18.70% and for the

forecast proposes gradual reduction of T&D losses to 13% by the end of 12th Plan

which has been adopted in consultation with the State authority. Further reduction of

T&D losses to 10% by the end of 13th Plan is anticipated. The APTRANSCO had

indicated that implementation of RAPDRP is already taken up and gradual reduction

of T&D losses as proposed could be achieved. The year-wise pattern of reduction in T

& D losses envisaged for 12th & 13th plan as per EPS is indicated in Fig - H-5

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

T & D Losses -in% 18.70 17.75 16.80 15.85 14.90 13.95 13.00 12.40 11.80 11.20 10.60 10.00

2010-

11

2011-

12

2012-

13

2013-

14

2014-

15

2015-

16

2016-

17

2017-

18

2018-

19

2019-

20

2020-

21

2021-

22

Fig H-4: Consumption Pattern

Fig H-5: T & D Losses in Percentage

149



The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 1702 MUs and 3630

MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively.

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

Domestic 3629.58 4008.23 4416.97 4857.00 5329.49 5835.52 6376.05 6951.92 7563.82 8212.24 8897.50 9619.72

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

The past growth in No. of Consumers has been studied. The AGR for the year 2010-

11 is 8.62 %. The CAGR for a period from 2003-04 to 2010-11 is 8.62 %. The annual

growth in No.of consumers in this category shows a reducing trend. The same trend

has been maintained for the forecast for the future years also i.e for the 12th & 13th

plan periods. The specific consumption (Kwh/Consumer) for the year 2010-11 was

1697 kWh. Studying the past trend in specific consumption, an annual addition of 30

kWh/Consumer is assumed for future years. The energy consumption is expected to

increase at the rate of 9.85% and 9.21% during 12th and 13th plan period

respectively from the base year 2010-11. The envisaged pattern of growth of electrical

energy consumption for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig- H6

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 939.54 MUs and 2543

MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. The trend in growth actual

No. of consumers in past actual years was analyzed. It shows a reducing trend in

growth. The trend has been maintained for the 12th and 13th plan period also i.e the

growth rate gradually reduces from 8.19% in the year 2010-11 to 6.99% in the year

2016-17 and further reduces to 6.19% in the year 2021-22. The specific energy

consumption (Kwh/Consumer) is expected to increase at 250Kwh/consumer annually

from 2011-12 to 2021-22

Fig H-6; Electric Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

150

Commerical

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n -

MU

s

Commerical 2543.00 2852.52 3189.49 3555.27 3951.09 4378.09 4837.31 5329.65 5855.89 6416.64 7015.70 7657.73

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

The energy consumption would grow by 11.31% and 10.54% during 12th & 13th plan

period respectively from the base year 2010-11 which includes the impact of

important development projects i.e. expected malls, metro rail and commercial centers

expected to come up in the city. The envisaged pattern of growth of electrical energy

consumption for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig- H-7

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector was 1460.27 MUs and 2979.74

MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in

industrial sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was around 9.74%.

Industries

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n-M

Us

Industries 2979.74 3363.22 3668.76 4002.55 4367.08 4764.94 5199.92 5636.58 6095.54 6592.67 7130.84 7714.09

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

The actual growth rate of connected Load in the LT Industries category for the year

2010-11 was 12%. The CAGR for 7 years from 2003-04 is 11.63%. A growth rate of

11% is assumed during the 12th Plan and 10% for the 13th Plan period.

New SEZs are envisaged to come within the limit of Greater Hyderabad City during

the next 10 years for which 6 Nos. of 220 KV sub-stations are proposed to be

Fig H-7: Electric Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

Fig H-8: Electric Energy Consumption in Industrial Category

151

provided to meet the electricity requirement. Provision has already been made in the

forecast in the H.T.Industries (Demand less than 1 MW) and H.T.Industries (Demand

more than 1 MW). A growth rate of 8% is assumed for 12th Plan and 7% for the 13th

Plan period for H.T less than 1MW category. Energy consumption in industrial sector

will be 5199.92 MUs and 7714.09 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-

22) plan respectively which is expected to increase at the rate of 10.87% and 9.65%

(Compounded Growth rate from the base year 2010-11) for the 12th and 13th plan

period respectively. The envisaged pattern of growth of electrical energy consumption

for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig- H-8


Categories included in others are public lighting, public water works, irrigation and

railways The electrical energy consumption in others was 703.45 MUs and 903.32

MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in these

sectors was around 3.64%. Electrical Energy Consumption in these sectors will be

1554.16 MUs and 1765.10 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan

period respectively which is expected to increase at the rate of 9.47% and 6.28%

(compounded growth rate from the base year 2010-11) during the 12th and 13th plan

period respectively. The reason for rapid increase in Energy Consumption during the

year 2015-16 is due to the anticipated load for metro rail. The envisaged pattern of

growth of electrical energy consumption for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in

Fig- H-9

Others

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n-M

Us

Others 903.33 903.05 933.26 1140.69 1174.23 1516.03 1554.16 1593.55 1632.75 1674.28 1718.85 1765.09

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Fig H-9: Electric Energy Consumption in Others Category

152

7. CONCLUSION

Hyderabad, capital of Andhra Pardesh is a fast growing city with its population of

about 7.74 million as per 2011 census. The forecast of the city has been prepared by

broadly considering the various development plans are to be implemented in 12th Plan

in future and its impacts on different categories of Load for the 12th and 13th Plan

Period. The percentage share of utlisation of Energy consumption for different

categories of Load for the year 2021-22 are Domestic – 36%, Commercial &

Miscellaneous – 29%, Industries – 29% and Others – 6%. The total Energy

consumption for Andhra Pradesh as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 63708 MUs (as

per 18th EPS), whereas Greater Hyderabad's Energy Consumption is 10056 MUs

which is 15.78% of State’s energy consumption. The total Energy requirement for

Andhra Pradesh as s whole for the year 2010 -11 was 78970 MUs (as per 18th EPS),

whereas Greater Hyderabad's Energy Requirement is 12369 MUs which is 15.66% of

State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for Andhra Pradesh as a whole for

the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 129767 MUs (as per 18th EPS), whereas Greater

Hyderabad's Energy Requirement is 20652 MUs which is 15.91% of State’s

requirement. The total Energy requirement for the Andhra Pradesh State as s whole

for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 191912 MUs (as per 18th EPS), whereas Greater

Hyderabad's Energy Requirement is 29730 MUs which is 15.49% of State’s

requirement.

The Peak Load for Andhra Pradesh as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 12630 MW

(as per 18th EPS), whereas Greater Hyderabad's Peak Load is 1938 MW which is

15.34% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for Andhra Pradesh State as a whole for

the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 22445 MW (as per 18th EPS), whereas Greater

Hyderabad's Peak Load is 3375MW which is 15% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak

Load for Andhra Pradesh State as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 33194

MW (as per 18th EPS), whereas Greater Hyderabad's Peak Load is 5039 MW which

is 1% of State’s Peak Load.

The T & D Loss percentage for Andhra Pradesh State as a whole for the year 2010 -11

was 17.7% and estimated figures for 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 16.5% and 15%

respectively (as per 18th EPS), whereas Greater Hyderabad's T & D Loss percentage

for the year 2010-11 was 19% and estimated figures for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22

are 13% and 10 % respectively.

To achieve the growth of electricity demand vis-à-vis consumption as projected in

EPS, the State utilities would have to formulate the strategy to implement the

programme initiated for development of infrastructure. The development activities as

indicated in the Master Plan account for sizeable growth in electricity demand as such

the availability of matching infrastructure for providing electricity is essential.

153

Appendix-H

154

Annexure

H1



20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

3630

4008

4417

4857

5329

5836

6376

6952

7564

8212

8898

9620

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

2543

2853

3189

3555

3951

4378

4837

5330

5856

6417

7016

7658

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g236

218

235

254

273

294

315

337

360

384

409

434

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 90

99

108

119

130

142

155

168

183

198

215

233

Irri

ga

tio

n438

439

435

430

425

421

416

410

404

397

391

384

Ind

ust

ries

LT

614

684

759

843

935

1038

1152

1273

1400

1541

1695

1864

Ind

ust

ries

HT

2366

2679

2910

3160

3432

3727

4047

4363

4695

5052

5436

5850

Ra

ilw

ay

tra

ctio

n74

79

84

265

270

582

588

594

600

607

614

621

Bu

lk S

up

ply

66

68

71

74

76

79

81

84

86

88

90

93

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

10056

11127

12208

13556

14822

16495

17967

19512

21148

22896

24763

26757

T&

D l

os

se

s -

MU

2313

2401

2465

2553

2595

2674

2685

2762

2829

2888

2936

2973

T&

D l

os

se

s -

in %

18.70

17.75

16.80

15.85

14.90

13.95

13.00

12.40

11.80

11.20

10.60

10.00

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U12369

13528

14674

16109

17417

19169

20652

22274

23977

25784

27699

29730

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

72.86

72.36

71.86

71.36

70.86

70.36

69.86

69.36

68.86

68.36

67.86

67.36

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

1938

2134

2331

2577

2806

3110

3375

3666

3975

4306

4660

5039

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Ca

teg

ory

2010-1

12011-1

22

012-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72016-1

72

01

7-1

82

01

8-1

92

01

9-2

02

02

0-2

1

Do

me

sti

c3

6.0

93

6.0

23

6.1

83

5.8

33

5.9

63

5.3

83

5.4

93

5.6

33

5.7

73

5.8

73

5.9

33

5.9

5

Co

mm

.2

5.2

92

5.6

42

6.1

32

6.2

32

6.6

62

6.5

42

6.9

22

7.3

22

7.6

92

8.0

32

8.3

32

8.6

2

Ind

us

trie

s2

9.6

33

0.2

33

0.0

52

9.5

32

9.4

62

8.8

92

8.9

42

8.8

92

8.8

22

8.7

92

8.8

02

8.8

3

Oth

ers

8.9

88

.12

7.6

48

.41

7.9

29

.19

8.6

58

.17

7.7

27

.31

6.9

46

.60

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00


(201011to202122)

Hydrabad



155

Electric Power Survey CHENNAI CITY

1. INTRODUCTION

Chennai is the capital of the state Tamil Nadu and it is located at the Coromandel Coast of the Bay of Bengal. The Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) comprises the city of Chennai (176 Sq.km), 16 Municipalities(240 Sq.km), 20 Town Panchayats (156 Sq.km)and 214 Village Panchayats in 10 Panchayat Unions(617 Sq.km). It encompasses the Chennai district (176 Sq.km), part of Thiruvallur district (637 Sq.km) and a part of Kancheepuram district (376 Sq.km).The extent of CMA is 1189 Sq.km. Chennai urban agglomeration had a population of about 8.8 million in 2011. Chennai recorded an annual growth rate of 3.2% in the last decade.

1.1 Climate & RainfallDue to its location near equator, Chennai experiences hot and humid throughout the year. Due to its vicinity to the coastal area, Chennai does not experience extreme variations in seasonal temperature. Early June records the highest temperature of 45

oC. The cool breeze

during the night time provides some respite to the residents from the high temperature endured during daytime. During the monsoon, from June to September, Chennai receives rainfall of about 140 cm. Due to its vicinity to the Bay of Bengal, sometimes, cyclones too hit the city. Historically, Chennai has relied on annual monsoon rains to replenish water reservoirs, as no major rivers flow through the area. The winters occur during the months of November to February with January being the coolest month of the year.

1.2 Industries & EconomyIn the post independence period, manufacturing became an important sector and CMA continues to be most important industrial area in the State. Recent trend shows that the economic structure of the city is improving with growing contribution by Information Technology/Information Technology Enabling Service/Business Process Outsourcing. Chennai has a diversified economic base anchored by the automobile, software services, hardware manufacturing, health care and financial services industries. A large number of automotive companies including Hyundai, Renault, Nissan Motors, Ashok Leyland, Daimler AG, Caterpillar Inc., Komatsu Limited, Ford, BMW and Mitsubishi have manufacturing plants in Chennai. The Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi produces military vehicles, including India's main battle tank: Arjun MBT. The Integral Coach Factory manufactures railway coaches and other rolling stock for Indian Railways. The Ambattur–Padi industrial zone houses many textile manufacturers, and a special economic zone (SEZ) for apparel and footwear manufacture has been set up in the southern suburbs of the city. Many software and software services companies and Tidel Park have development centres in Chennai. Many Telecom and Electronics manufacturers are based in and around Chennai. Telecom giants Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent, pharmaceuticals giant Pfizer and chemicals giant Dow Chemicals have research and development facilities in Chennai. The TICEL bio–tech park at Taramani and Golden Jubilee bio–tech park at Siruseri houses biotechnology companies and laboratories. Chennai has a stock exchange called the Madras Stock Exchange. Medical tourism is another important part of Chennai's economy The Tamil film industry and the Tamil television industry are also significant parts of Chennai's economy. The city also has a permanent exhibition complex in Nandambakkam called the Chennai Trade Centre.

156

2. POWER SCENARIO

In November 2010 TNEB was restructured itself into TNEB Ltd; Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (TANGEDCO) Ltd; and Tamil Nadu Transmission Corporation (TANTRANSCO) Ltd. The supply and distribution of electricity to Chennai city is met by TANGEDCO. The generating stations in and around the city are as detailed below:NCTPS 630 MW (Coal based thermal station-TNEB) ETPS 450 MW(Coal based thermal station-TNEB) BBGTS 120 MW (Gas based station-TNEB) GMR VASAVI 196 MW (Diesel based station – IPP)

As per the TANGEDCO, in 2010-11 the total energy consumption of the city was 12631 MUs and the peak load met was 2206 MW. The power requirement of Chennai is met from 4 Nos. of 400 KV S/Stns at Alamathy, Sunguvarchatiram, Kalivandhapattu (PGCIL) and Sriperambatur 18 Nos. of 230 KV S/Stns and 57 No.s of 110 KV substations with a total capacity of approximately 5000 MVA.

The category wise Energy consumption for the year 2010-11 is given below:


Category Energy Consumption in MUs % of Total

1. Domestic 4107 32.5

2. Commercial & Misc 1951 15.45


4. Public Water Works i) LT ii) HT

3270

0.250.55


2260

1.790


24313452

19.2527.33


Total 12631 100

A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of Chennai City is given at Appendix – C


During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Chennai city, consultations were held with TANGEDCO and the main points discussed during the meeting are outlined below:

157

TANGEDCO has supplied actual data up to 2009-10 and figures of 2010-11 are provisional which has been considered as base year figure.

The T&D Losses for year 2010-11 of Chennai City is around 15% and TANGEDCO informed that the RAPDRP Scheme is already under implementation and all efforts would be made to reduce the T & D Loss to 13.51% by the end of 12th Plan and to the level of 11% by the end of the 13th Plan.

For consumption in Domestic category, it has been decided to adopt a growth rate of 5% during the 12th Plan and 4% during the 13th Plan period for No. of consumers and likewise for commercial category 6% and 5% respectively.

In regards to Public Lighting Category TANGEDCO informed that during the 12th Plan onwards utilisation of Solar Energy and LED Lighting systems are to be initiated. It was decided to adopt a growth rate of 3% during the 12th Plan and 2% during the 13th Plan period in connected Load for public lighting category.

Large scale infrastructural developments are expected to take place in the H.T industrial Sector. Considering the developments envisaged in the H.T Industrial Sector. It has been decided to merge the two categories of load ,viz, HT Industrial category less than one 1MW and HT industries Category more than 1MW, as a single category of Load as " HT Industries". Also decided to give due considerations in the growth of connected Load for this category as per the developments envisaged for this category for 12th & 13th Plan Period.

In the LT industrial category of load, 30000 small scale industrial units are expected to come up within the city limits and it has been decided at adopt an annual addition of 50MW in connected load for the span of 12th and 13th plan period.

Due to the rapid urbanization of the city and adjoining area the energy consumption under irrigation category will gradually reduce in 12th & 13th Plan.

It has also been indicated that there was no power/energy restrictions for Chennai City for the year 2010-11(Base Year).

4. SALIENT FEATURES OF GROWTH OF INFRASTRUCTURE IN CHENNAI

The Rapid Transport system is proposed to be introduced in Chennai and power demand of 90 MW by end of 12th Plan is included in the railway traction category as per the detailed information submitted by TANGEDCO as per two lines with total length of 80km and 41 station are planned in Phase-I.

SIPCOT Industrial Parks are proposed to be setup at Pillaipakkam near Irungattukottai and at Vallamvadakkal near Sriperumpudur

The details of existing & proposed sub stations as proposed by TANGEDCO are given in Table-C-1.

158

Table-C-1Existing & Proposed sub stations of TANGEDCO

Electric S/Stns Present Proposed

400/220kV 4Nos. (Sriperumpudur, Sunguvarchatiram,Kalivandhapattu(PGCIL)Alamathy

5 Nos.(Guindy, Thervaikandigai, Ottlambakam, Korattur,Manli )

230/110kV 18 9

110kV 57 18

33/11 kV 99 41

DistributionTransformers for the 12th Plan period

16351 1227

The list of 230/110 KV, 110/66 KV and 33/11 KV Substations which are to be implemented in a phased manner are indication the Network map indicating 230/110/33kv feeding arrangement of Chennai Metro Area. (Appendix C).


Based on the input data provided by TANGEDCO and the subsequent consultations regarding the factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10 years and the steps initiated/planned by State Authorities the EPS of Chennai city has been undertaken.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirements of Chennai city are estimated to be 21434 MUs and 26236 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The peak electric load of Chennai city is estimated to be 3331 MW and 4309 MW by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22) respectively. The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 18537 MU by end of 12th plan and 23346 MU by end of 13th plan. The T&D losses of Chennai city are expected to be brought down to 13.51% by end of 12th plan and further reduced gradually to 11% by end of 13th plan.

The pattern of utilization of the electric energy in 2010-11 indicates that the Industrial category contributes around 47% followed by domestic category 33%, commercial category 15% and others 5%. The EPS results shows that by end of 12th plan, the utilization in commercial category may remain the same whereas the pattern of utilisation of electricity for industrial category may increase to 48% and domestic category may decrease to 31%. By end of 13th plan, the utilization in domestic category is likely to slightly decrease to 30% and industrial category may increase to 49% and contribution of commercial category may increase to 16%.

Annexure – C-I indicates the category wise/year wise summary details of the electricity consumption, T&D losses, electric energy requirement, peak load and pattern of utilization for 12th & 13th plan period.

159


The total electrical energy requirement of the Chennai City has been arrived by adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level.The total energy requirement of the city during the year 2010-11 was 14842 MUs which is expected to increase to 21184 MUs and 26084 MUs for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement would be around 6.11% and 5.26% during 12th & 13th plan respectively from the base 2010-11. The year wise pattern of growth in Electrical Energy Requirement is shown in Fig C-1


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Series1 14842 15273 16448 17621 19057 20232 21434 22416 23353 24296 25256 26236



According to the data furnished by TANGEDCO, the Peak Demand of City was 1290 MW during 1999-00 which rose to around 2206 MW by 2010-11 and is expected to grow @ 7.11% and 6.28% during 12the and 13th plan respectively from the base year 2010-11 in spite of 5.00% actual growth from 1999-00 to 2010-11. As the result of the study of pattern of utilization of various categories , the peak electric load will be 3370 and4334MW by the end of 12th (2016-17)and 13th (2021-22)plan respectively. The year wise growth of peak Electric Load for Chennai City is illustrated in Fig C-2


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Series1 2206 2291 2490 2693 2940 3151 3370 3559 3744 3934 4130 4334


Fig C-1: Electrical Energy Requirement in MU

Fig C-2: Peak Electric Load in MW

160


The total electricity consumption of the city during the year 2010-11 was 12631 MUs and is expected to increase to 18537 MU and 23346 MU during the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 respectively with the compounded growth rate of 6.60 & 5.74% from the base year 2010-11.The category-wise growth in electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig.C-3


0.00

10000.00

20000.00

30000.00

Others 689.73 639.17 710.50 760.65 1028.05 1049.18 1070.72 1090.98 1110.39 1130.12 1150.16 1170.55

Industries 5883.32 5978.81 6576.59 7178.09 7779.59 8381.09 8982.59 9476.09 9957.59 10439.0910920.59 11402.09

Commerical 1951.40 2079.75 2212.43 2354.29 2495.78 2651.02 2819.14 2985.27 3149.29 3316.44 3495.45 3688.70

Domestic 4107.00 4335.78 4574.17 4825.56 5090.65 5370.19 5664.96 5946.62 6213.01 6491.21 6781.71 7085.07


From the utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11, it can be seen that the highest energy is consumed by Industrial category (47%) followed by Domestic (33%), commercial (15%) and other remaining categories (5%). The consumption pattern for various sectors as on 2010-11 and as envisaged by end of 12th plan & 13th plan is illustrated in Fig C-4

Consuption Pattern(2010-11)

33%

15%

5%

47%

Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others

Consmption Pattern (2016-17)

31%

15%

48%

6%

Consumption Pat tern(2021-22)

30%

16%

49%

5%

Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th & 13th Plan would be 31% & 30% in domestic, 15% & 16 % in commercial, 48% and 49% in industrial sector and 6% & 5% in others (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers) for 12th & 13th plan respectively. The consumption pattern for for various sectors as on 2010-11 and as envisaged by the end of 12th Plan & 13th Plan is illustrated in Fig C-4.

Fig C-3: Categorywise Energy Consumption in MU

Fig C-4: Consumption Pattern

161


The T & D losses for Chennai city during the year 2010-11 were 14.89% and the forecast proposes to adopt gradual reduction of T&D losses to 12.49% by the end of 12th Plan and further reduction to 10.49% by the end of 13th Plan. The representative of TANGEDCO indicated that implementation of RAPDRP scheme is already undertaken and gradual reduction of T&D losses would be achieved. The forecast envisages T & D losses as 12.49% & 10.49% in the year 2016-17 & 2021-22 respectively The year wise pattern of reduction in T & D losses envisaged as per EPS is indicated in Fig C-5.


0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Series1 14.89 14.66 14.43 14.20 13.97 13.74 13.51 13.01 12.51 12.01 11.51 11.01




The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 1509 MUs and 4107 MUs during the year 1999-00 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past growth in number of consumers, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 5% & 4% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

Domestic

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

Energ

y C

onsum

ption in M

Us

Domestic 4107.00 4335.78 4574.17 4825.56 5090.65 5370.19 5664.96 5946.62 6213.01 6491.21 6781.71 7085.07


Fig C-5: T & D Losses in Percentage

Fig C-6 Electric Energy Consumption in Domestic Category

162

The energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 5.51% and 5.08% during 12th and 13th plan period respectively from the base year 2010-11.The Electricity Consumption for 12th & 13th Plan period is indicated in Fig-C6

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 563 MUs and 1951.40 MUs during the year 1999-00 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past energy consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of developments on energy consumption, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 6% and 5% per year during the 12th and 13th plan respectively. The specific energy consumption is expected to increase at a 25Kwh/consumer during 12th and 13th plan period respectively

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

Commerical 1951.40 2079.75 2212.43 2354.29 2495.78 2651.02 2819.14 2985.27 3149.29 3316.44 3495.45 3688.70


The energy consumption would grow by 6.72% and 6.29% during 12th & 13th plan period respectively which includes the impact of important development projects i.e. expected malls, metro rail and commercial centers expected to come up n the city. The Electricity Consumption pattern for 12th & 13th Plan period are indicated in Fig C-7

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector was 1894.93 MUs and 5883.32 MUs during the year 1999-00 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in industrial sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was around 12%. The TANGEDCO authorities during the discussion informed that there would be considerable growth expected in L.T & H.T Industrial sectors. This has been taken in to account for the industrial forecast.

Industries

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

Energ

y C

onsum

ption in M

Us

Industries 5883.32 5978.81 6576.59 7178.09 7779.59 8381.09 8982.59 9476.09 9957.59 10439.0 10920.5 11402.0


Fig C-7 Electric Energy Consumption in Commercial Category

Fig C-8 Electric Energy Consumption in Industrial Category

163

Energy consumption in industrial sector will be 8983 MUs and 11402 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively which is expected to be increase at the rate of 7.31% and 6.20% (Compounded Growth rate from the base year 2010-11) for the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The past trend in connected load of medium and large scale industries has been studied and it has been observed that the average annual addition of connected load is only about 100 MW. Hence, for the forecast, an annual addition of 200 MW for the 12th Plan period and an annual addition of 150 MW for the 13th plan period assumed for HT industrial category considering the industrial developments envisaged by Industrial department and TANGEDCO. For LT Industrial category an annual addition of 50 MW is assumed for the 12th and 13th plan. The consumption pattern in industrial Category for 12th & 13th plan is indicated in Fig C-8


Categories included in OTHERS category are public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railways .The electrical energy consumption in others was 195.84 MUs and 689.73 MUs during the year 1999-00 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in these sectors was around 13.42%. Electrical Energy Consumption in these sectors will be 1071.41 MUs and 1170.54 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan period respectively which is expected to be increase at the rate of 7.62% and 4.93% (compounded growth rate from the base year 2010-11) during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The reason for rapid increase in Energy Consumption during the year 2014-15 is due to the anticipated load for metro rail. The pattern of electrical energy consumption on these categories for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in fig C-9

Others

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

nin

MU

s

Others 689.73 639.17 710.50 760.65 1028.05 1049.18 1070.72 1090.98 1110.39 1130.12 1150.16 1170.55


7. CONCLUSION

Chennai, capital of Tamilnadu state is a fast growing city with its population of about 8.8. million in 2010-11.The forecast of the city has been prepared by broadly considering the various development plans which may takes place in future and its impacts on different categories of Load for the 12th and 13th Plan Period. The percentage share of utlisation

Fig C-9 Electric Energy Consumption in OTHERS Category

164

of Energy consumption for different categories of Load for the year 2021-22 are Domestic – 30%,Commercial & Miscellaneous – 16%,Industries – 49% and Others – 5%

The total Energy requirement for Tamilnadu as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 80314 MUs ( as per 18th EPS) whereas CMA’s Energy Requirement is 14842 MUs which is 18 % of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for Tamilnadu State as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 119251 MUs ( as per 18th EPS). whereas CMA’s Energy Requirement is 21434 which is 17% of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for Tamilnadu as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 171718 MUs ( as per 18th EPS). whereas CMA’s Energy Requirement is 26236 MUs which is 15% of State’s requirement.

The Peak Load for Tamilnadu State as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 11728 MW (as per 18th EPS) whereas CMA’s Peak Load is 2206 MW which is 19% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for Tamilnadu State as a whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 20816 MW ( as per 18th EPS) whereas CMA’s Peak Load is 3370 MW which is 16% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for Tamilnadu as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 29975 MW ( as per 18th EPS) whereas CMA’s Peak Load is 4334 MW which is 14% of State’s Peak Load.

The T & D Loss percentage for Tamilnadu as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 18.21% and estimated figures for 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 17.61% and 16.11% respectively (as per 18th EPS), whereas CMA’s T & D Loss percentage for the year 2010-11 was 14.89% and estimated figures for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 13.59% and 11% respectively. The estimates for T& D Losses have been made after considering the various measures planned by TANGEDCO to curtail the T& D Losses for the CMA.

To achieve the growth of electricity demand vis-à-vis consumption as projected in EPS the State utilities would have to formulate the strategy to implement the programme initiated for development of infrastructure. The development activities as indicated in the Master Plan account for sizeable growth in electricity demand as such the availability of matching infrastructure for providing electricity is essential.

165

Appendix-C

AA

166

Annexure

B1



20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

4107

4336

4574

4826

5091

5370

5665

5947

6213

6491

6782

7085

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

1951

2080

2212

2354

2496

2651

2819

2985

3149

3316

3495

3689

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g82

82

82

84

87

90

92

95

96

98

100

102

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 102

106

111

116

121

126

132

137

143

149

154

161

Irri

ga

tio

n226

138

136

134

132

130

128

126

123

120

118

115

Ind

ust

ries

LT

2431

2632

2764

2886

3007

3129

3250

3372

3493

3615

3736

3858

Ind

ust

ries

HT

3452

3347

3812

4292

4772

5252

5732

6104

6464

6824

7184

7544

Ra

ilw

ay

tra

ctio

n280

313

381

426

688

703

718

733

748

763

778

793

Bu

lk S

up

ply

00

00

00

00

00

00

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

12631

13034

14074

15119

16394

17451

18537

19499

20430

21377

22348

23346

T&

D l

os

se

s -

MU

2210

2240

2374

2503

2663

2781

2896

2917

2922

2919

2908

2890

T&

D l

os

se

s -

in %

14.89

14.66

14.43

14.20

13.97

13.74

13.51

13.01

12.51

12.01

11.51

11.01

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U14842

15273

16448

17621

19057

20232

21434

22416

23353

24296

25256

26236

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

76.80

76.10

75.40

74.70

74.00

73.30

72.60

71.90

71.20

70.50

69.80

69.10

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

2206

2291

2490

2693

2940

3151

3370

3559

3744

3934

4130

4334

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Ca

teg

ory

2010-1

12011-1

22

012-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72016-1

72

01

7-1

82

01

8-1

92

01

9-2

02

02

0-2

1

Do

me

sti

c3

2.5

13

3.2

73

2.5

03

1.9

23

1.0

53

0.7

73

0.5

63

0.5

03

0.4

13

0.3

73

0.3

53

0.3

5

Co

mm

.1

5.4

51

5.9

61

5.7

21

5.5

71

5.2

21

5.1

91

5.2

11

5.3

11

5.4

11

5.5

11

5.6

41

5.8

0

Ind

us

trie

s4

6.5

84

5.8

74

6.7

34

7.4

84

7.4

54

8.0

34

8.4

64

8.6

04

8.7

44

8.8

34

8.8

74

8.8

4

Oth

ers

5.4

64

.90

5.0

55

.03

6.2

76

.01

5.7

85

.60

5.4

45

.29

5.1

55

.01

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00


(201011to202122)

Chennai



167

Electric Power Survey BANGALORE CITY

1. INTRODUCTION Bangalore, now renamed as Bengaluru is the capital of Karnataka with an estimated population of 8.47 million in 2011. Bangalore lies in the southeast of Karnataka. It is in the Mysore Plateau at an average elevation of 900 m. It is located at 12.97°N 77.56°E . The majority of the city lies in the Bangalore Urban district of Karnataka and the surrounding rural areas are a part of the Bangalore Rural district. The Bangalore Metropolitan Area Zone (BMAZ) covers an area of 1570Sq Kms. The topology of Bangalore is flat except for a central ridge running NNE-SSW. Bangalore sometimes does face water shortages, especially during the summer season- more so in the years of low rainfall.

1.1Climate & Rainfall Bangalore experiences a tropical savanna climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. Due to its high elevation, Bangalore usually enjoys a more moderate climate throughout the year. The coolest month is December with an average low temperature of 15.4 °C and the hottest month is April with an average high temperature of 32.8 °C. Winter temperatures rarely drop below 12 °C, and summer temperatures seldom exceed 34–35 °C. Bangalore receives rainfall from both the northeast and the southwest monsoons and the wettest months are August, September and October in that order.

1.2 Industries & Economy Bengaluru evolved into a manufacturing hub for heavy industries such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, Indian Telephone Industries , Hindustan Machine Tools and Bharat Electronics Limited after independence. World Aerospace giants such as Boeing, Airbus, Goodrich, Dynamatics, Honeywell, GE Aviation, UTL others have their R&D and Engineering centres. In June 1972, the ISRO was created under the DOS and headquartered in Bengaluru.

In the past three decades, the establishment and success of high technology firms in Bengaluru has led to the growth of Information Technology (IT) in India. The Silicon Valley of India is a nickname of the Indian city of Bengaluru. The name signifies Bengaluru's status as a hub for information technology (IT) companies in India . Bengaluru is also becoming a destination for the automotive industry with Toyota Volvo Trucks manufacturing plants. Bengaluru houses many small and medium scale industries in its Peenya industrial area .

168

2. POWER SCENARIO

In July 1999, the Karnataka Electricity Board (KEB) was unbundled into two companies - Karnataka Power Corporation Limited (KPCL) for managing generation, and Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Limited (KPTCL) for transmission and distribution. In 2002, the distribution business of KPTCL to Bangalore City was transferred to Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Ltd. (Bescom). The total electricity consumption of the city was 10300 MU in year 2010-11. During the last four years, the city has observed more or less steady annual growth rate of 7 - 8 % in terms of electrical energy consumption. The peak electric load of the city was 2002 MW during 2010-11. A map showing grid sub stations and transmission & distribution system of Bangalore is given at Appendix-B. The category wise Energy consumption for the year 2010-11is shown below :


Category Energy Consumption in

MUs

% of Total

1. Domestic 3463 33.6

2. Commercial & Misc 3267 31.7


4. Public Water Works i) LT ii) HT

133229

1.32.2


520

0.50


6902202

6.721.4


Total 10299 100


During the course of electricity demand forecasting of Bangalore city, the consultation were made with concerned state utilities of Karnataka viz. Karnataka Power Transmission Corporation Ltd (KPTCL) and Bangalore Electric Supply Company Ltd (BESCOM).The main points discussed during the consultation with the state organizations outlined below:

The representatives from KPTCL and BESCOM informed that the Energy Requirement and Peak load data given for the year 2010-11 are unrestricted figures. They also informed that within city limits no SEZs are planned for the next 10 years.

The area covered for this forecast is Bangalore Metropolitan Area Zone .

169

For Domestic category, it has been decided to adopt a growth rate of 5% during the 12th Plan and 4% during the 13th Plan period for No. of consumers and likewise for commercial category 7% and 6% respectively.

In regards to Public Lighting Category, the representatives informed that during the 12th and 13th Plan, utilisation of Solar Energy and LED Lighting systems are planned to be undertaken. So growth rate of 5% during the 12th Plan and 4% during the 13th Plan period has been adopted.

As per the Master Plan – 2015 (prepared in 2007), besides the Industrial areas like, Peenya, Bommasandra and Electronic City, several new industrial areas have been identified. Considering this, it has been decided during the meeting to adopt 7% and 6% growth rate in connected load for LT industries during 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

There are 57 major industries with contracted power demand of 1 MW and above with BESCOM within Bangalore Metropolitan Area Zone. The representative of State Utilities informed that there is no scope for further major industries coming up within the city limits. However, considering the developments in IT Sector in the identified High-tech Zone (As per Master plan – 2015) like Whitefield (ITPL) and Electronic City, a growth rates of 5% and 4% have been considered for the 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

The representatives informed that energy requirement for “namma metro” has been taken care in the forecast provided by BESCOM for railway traction category.

Due to the rapid urbanization of the cities, energy consumption under irrigation category will reduce considerably in the 12th and 13th Plan. As such Number of Pump sets in the 12th and 13th Plan will reduce.

4. SALIENT FEATURES OF GROWTH INFRASTRUCTURE IN BANGALORE

As per the Master Plan – 2015 (prepared in 2007), the salient features of the

development of infrastructure to meet the growing demand in various sectors is as

under:-

Proposal for Multi-modal Public Transportation System. This includes,

Elevated Core Ring Road, Outer Ring Road, Intermediate Ring Road,

Peripheral Ring Road, Satellite Township Ring Road, Airport Ring

Road(Express Way), Bangalore Metro Rail ( East-West and North-South

Corridors), Commuter Rail System

Key sectors, which are envisaged to contribute to the growth of Bangalore,

include the following:

- (i) IT/ITES & Bio-technology;

- (ii) Education; and

- (iii) Healthcare.

170

The details of existing & proposed sub stations as per furnished by MPPKVCCL is

as under:

ElectricSubstation

Present Proposed

400/220kV 2(Somanahally& Hoody)

1(Electronic city)

220/11kV 13 6

66/11kV 84 23


The input data provided by KPTCL and BESCOM, the consultations regarding the

factors governing the growth of infrastructure and electricity demand in next 10 years

and the steps initiated/planned by State Authorities were broadly studied. The EPS

of Bangalore city has been undertaken after taking into consideration the above

aspects.

As per EPS, the total electric energy requirements of Bangalore city is estimated to

be 16260 MUs and 21219 MUs by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-

22) respectively. The peak load requirements of Bangalore city is estimated to be

2805 MW and 3717 MW by end of 12th plan (2016-17) and 13th plan (2021-22)

respectively. The total electricity consumption is expected to be of the order of 14465

MU by end of 12th plan and 18972 MU by end of 13th plan. The Transmission &

Distribution losses of Bangalore city are expected to be brought down to 11.04% by

end of 12th plan and further reduced gradually to 10.59% by end of 13th plan.


category contributes around 33% followed by commercial 32%, industrial category

28% and others 6%. The EPS results indicate that by the end of 12th plan, the

utilization in domestic category slightly increases to 34% whereas the industrial

category may decrease to 25% and commercial category may increase to 34%. By

end of 13th plan, the utilization in domestic category is likely to remains same with

slight decrease to 23% in industrial category and increased to 36% for commercial

category.

Annexure – B-I indicate the category wise/year wise details of the electricity


utilization for 12th & 13th plan period.


5.1 ENERGY REQUIREMENTThe total electrical energy requirement of the Bangalore City has been arrived by

adding T&D losses in the total electrical energy consumption at consumer level. The

171

total energy requirement of the city during the year 2010-11 was 11609 MUs which is

expected to increase to 16260 MUs and 21219 MUs for the year 2016-17 and 2021-

22 respectively. The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy requirement

would be around 5.7% and 5.59% during 12th & 13th plan respectively from the base

year 2010-11.

The year-wise pattern of Growth in electrical Energy requirements for 12th & 13th

Plan period is shown in Fig B-1


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Series1 11609 12300 13013 13755 14542 15377 16260 17165 18050 19155 20163 21219



According to the data furnished by BESCOM, the Peak Demand of City was 1134

MW during 2003-04 which rose to around 2002MW by 2010-11 and is expected to

grow @ 5.71% and 5.74% during 12th and 13th plan respectively from the base year

2010-11 in spite of 8.46% actual growth from 2003-04 to 2010-11. As the result of

the study of pattern of utilization of various categories, the peak electric load will be

2805 MW and 3717 MW by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan

respectively.

The year-wise growth of peak electric load Bangalore city during 12th & 13th plan

period are shown in Fig B-2 Annual Electric Peak Load (MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Series1 2002 2090 2218 2352 2494 2645 2805 2970 3133 3335 3521 3717


Fig B-1: Electrical Energy Requirement in MUs

Fig B-2: Peak Electrical Load in MW

172




17 and 2021-22 respectively with the compounded growth rate of 5.82 & 5.71% from

the base year 2010-11.

The category-wise growth in electricity consumption as per EPS is illustrated in Fig B-3


0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

Others 677.09 705.89 763.29 810.46 859.03 909.89 959.68 1011.65 1061.68 1267.62 1344.34 1418.06

Industries 2892.27 3046.33 3160.06 3279.75 3405.75 3538.45 3678.25 3806.44 3931.21 4061.84 4198.65 4341.97

Commerical 3267.39 3505.11 3756.47 4025.83 4314.51 4623.87 4955.40 5293.40 5628.74 5985.27 6364.32 6767.31

Domestic 3462.98 3660.04 3876.02 4104.45 4346.03 4601.51 4871.68 5174.08 5468.17 5777.50 6102.84 6444.95


From the utilisation pattern for the year 2010-11, it can be seen that the highest energy is consumed by domestic category (33%) followed by commercial (32%), industrial (28%) and other remaining categories (7%).


33%

32%

28%

7%Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others

Consmption Pattern (2016-17)

34%

34%

25%

7%Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others


34%

36%

23%

7% Domestic

Commerical

Industries

Others

The pattern of utilization by the end of 12th & 13th Plan would be 34% in domestic, 34% & 36 % in commercial, 25% and 23% in industrial sector and 7% in others (which includes public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railway and bulk consumers) for 12th & 13th plan respectively.The consumption pattern for various sectors as on 2010-11 and as envisaged by the end of12th pan and 13th plan is illustrated in Fig B-4.

Fig B-3: Category wise Energy in MU

Fig B-4: Consumption Pattern

173


The T & D losses for Bangalore city during the year 2010-11 was 11.28%, which is expected to reduce to 11.04% and 10.59% by the end of 12th plan and 13th plan period respectively. The year-wise pattern of reduction in T & D losses envisaged for 12th & 13th plan as per EPS is indicated in Fig B-5.


10.20

10.40

10.60

10.80

11.00

11.20

11.40

Series1 11.28 11.24 11.20 11.16 11.12 11.08 11.04 10.95 10.86 10.77 10.68 10.59


6 CATEGORY WISE FORECAST


The electrical energy consumption in domestic category was 1716.87 MUs and 3462.98 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past growth in number of consumers, it is expected to increase at the rate of 5% & 4% per year during the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The energy consumption is expected to increase at the rate of 5.85% and 5.81% during 12th and 13th plan period respectively from the base year 2010-11.The envisaged pattern of growth of electrical energy consumption for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig B-6

Domestic

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n i

n M

Us

Domestic 3462.98 3660.04 3876.02 4104.45 4346.03 4601.51 4871.68 5174.08 5468.17 5777.50 6102.84 6444.95


Fig B-5: T & D Losses in Percentage

Fig B-6: Electric energy Consumption in Domestic Category

174

6.2 COMMERCIAL

The electrical energy consumption in commercial category was 971 MUs and 3267 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. Considering the past energy consumption trends and keeping in view the probable impact of major development plans in commercial sector, the number of consumers are expected to increase at the rate of 7% and 6% per year during the 12th and 13th plan respectively. The specific energy consumption is expected to increase at a moderate rate during 12th and 13th plan period respectively.

Commerical

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

Energ

y C

onsum

ption in M

Us

Commerical 3267.39 3505.11 3756.47 4025.83 4314.51 4623.87 4955.40 5293.40 5628.74 5985.27 6364.32 6767.31


The energy consumption would grow by 7.19% and 6.84% during 12th & 13th plan period respectively which includes the impact of important development projects i.e. expected malls, metro rail BRT and commercial centres expected to come up in the city. The envisaged pattern of growth of electrical energy consumption for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig B-7

6.3 INDUSTRIAL

The electrical energy consumption in industrial sector was 1675 MUs and 2892 MUs during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in industrial sector (which including (LT & HT industries) was around 8.12%. The BESCOM authorities during the discussion informed that no major core industries or special economic zones are expected to come up with in the metropolitan area for the next 10 years other than IT industries. Considerable growth is expected only in L.T industrial sector

dust es

0.00

1000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n i

n M

Us

Industries 2892.27 3046.33 3160.06 3279.75 3405.75 3538.45 3678.25 3806.44 3931.21 4061.84 4198.65 4341.97


Fig B-7: Electric energy Consumption in Commercial & Misc. Category

Fig B-8: Electric energy Consumption in Industrial Category

175

Energy consumption in industrial sector will be 3678 MUs and 4342 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan respectively which is expected to increase at the rate of 4.09% and 3.76% (Compounded Growth rate from the base year 2010-11) for the 12th and 13th plan period respectively. The envisaged pattern of growth of electrical energy consumption for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig B-8

6.4.1 OTHERS (Public Lighting, PWW, Irrigation, Railways & Non Industrial)


railways .The electrical energy consumption in others was 244.3 MUs and 677.09 MUs

during the year 2003-04 and 2010-11 respectively. The actual CAGR in these sectors

was around 15%. Electrical Energy Consumption in these sectors will be 959.67 MUs

and 1418.27 MUs by the end of 12th (2016-17) and 13th (2021-22) plan period

respectively which is expected to increase at the rate of 5.99% and 6.95% (compounded

growth rate from the base year 2010-11) during the 12th and 13th plan period

respectively. The reason for rapid increase in Energy Consumption during the year 2019-

20 due to the anticipated load for Metro Rail phase II. The actual pattern of electrical

energy consumption in these categories for the period from 2003-04 to 2010-11 and

projection for 12th and 13th plan period are indicated in Fig-B-9

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n i

n M

Us

Others 677.09 705.89 763.29 810.46 859.03 909.89 959.68 1011.65 1061.68 1267.62 1344.34 1418.06


7 CONCLUSION

Bengaluru, capital of Karnataka state is a fast growing city with its population of about 8.47. Million as per 2011 census. The forecast of the city has been prepared by broadly considering the various development plans which may takes place in future and its impacts on different categories of Load for the 12th and 13th Plan Period. The percentage share of utlisation of Energy consumption for different categories of Load for the year 2021-22 are Domestic – 34%, Commercial & Miscellaneous – 36%,Industries – 23% and Others – 7%

The total Energy requirement for the Karnataka State as s whole for the year 2010 -11 was 50474 MUs ( as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s Energy Requirement is 11609 MUs which is 23% of State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for the Karnataka State as s whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 78637 MUs ( as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s Energy Requirement is 16260 MUs which is 20% of

Fig B-9: Electric energy Consumption in OTHERS Category

176

State’s requirement. The total Energy requirement for the Karnataka State as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 108012 MUs ( as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s Energy Requirement is 21219 MUs which is 20% of State’s requirement.

The Peak Load for the Karnataka State as s whole for the year 2010 -11 was 8430 MW ( as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s Peak Load is 2002 MW which is 23.75% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for the Karnataka State as s whole for the year 2016 -17 is estimated as 13010 MW ( as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s Peak Load is 2805 MW which is 22% of State’s Peak Load. The Peak Load for the Karnataka State as a whole for the year 2021 -22 is estimated as 18403 MW (as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s Peak Load is 3717MW which is 20% of State’s Peak Load.

The T & D Loss percentage for the Karnataka State as a whole for the year 2010 -11 was 18.36% and estimated figures for 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 15.96% and 14.96% respectively (as per 18th EPS), whereas BMAZ’s T & D Loss percentage for the year 2010-11 was 11.28% and estimated figures for the year 2016-17 and 2021-22 are 11.04% and 10.59% respectively. The estimates for T& D Losses have been made after considering the various measures planned by BESCOM.

To achieve the growth of electricity demand and electricity consumption as projected in the report, the state utilities and other concerned organizations would need to formulate the matching action plan to implement the polices /programmes during the 12th plan period.

177

�

�

�

Appendix-B

178

Annexure

B1



20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

20

16

-17

20

17

-18

20

18

-19

20

19

-20

20

20

-21

20

21

-22

Do

mes

tic

3463

3660

3876

4104

4346

4602

4872

5174

5468

5778

6103

6445

Co

mm

erci

al

& M

isc.

3267

3505

3756

4026

4315

4624

4955

5293

5629

5985

6364

6767

Pu

bli

c li

gh

tin

g240

190

199

209

220

231

242

253

263

274

285

296

Pu

bli

c W

ate

r W

ork

s 362

407

453

475

498

525

551

577

602

630

656

680

Irri

ga

tio

n52

40

38

37

35

34

33

31

29

27

26

24

Ind

ust

ries

LT

690

768

822

880

941

1007

1078

1148

1216

1289

1367

1449

Ind

ust

ries

HT

2202

2278

2338

2400

2464

2531

2601

2659

2715

2772

2832

2893

Ra

ilw

ay

tra

ctio

n23

69

73

89

105

120

134

150

167

336

378

418

Bu

lk S

up

ply

00

00

00

00

00

00

To

tal

(E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n)

10300

10917

11556

12220

12925

13674

14465

15286

16090

17092

18010

18972

T&

D l

os

se

s -

MU

1309

1382

1457

1535

1617

1704

1795

1879

1960

2063

2153

2247

T&

D l

os

se

s -

in %

11.28

11.24

11.20

11.16

11.12

11.08

11.04

10.95

10.86

10.77

10.68

10.59

En

erg

y R

equ

irem

ent

- M

U11609

12300

13013

13755

14542

15377

16260

17165

18050

19155

20163

21219

An

nu

al

Lo

ad

Fa

ctor

- %

67.37

67.17

66.97

66.77

66.57

66.37

66.17

65.97

65.77

65.57

65.37

65.17

Pea

k L

oa

d -

MW

2002

2090

2218

2352

2494

2645

2805

2970

3133

3335

3521

3717

Pattern

ofUtilisation

Ca

teg

ory

2010-1

12011-1

22

012-1

32013-1

42014-1

52015-1

62016-1

72016-1

72

01

7-1

82

01

8-1

92

01

9-2

02

02

0-2

1

Do

me

sti

c3

3.6

23

3.5

23

3.5

43

3.5

93

3.6

23

3.6

53

3.6

83

3.8

53

3.9

93

3.8

03

3.8

93

3.9

7

Co

mm

.3

1.7

23

2.1

13

2.5

13

2.9

43

3.3

83

3.8

23

4.2

63

4.6

33

4.9

83

5.0

23

5.3

43

5.6

7

Ind

us

trie

s2

8.0

82

7.9

02

7.3

52

6.8

42

6.3

52

5.8

82

5.4

32

4.9

02

4.4

32

3.7

62

3.3

12

2.8

9

Oth

ers

6.5

76

.47

6.6

16

.63

6.6

56

.65

6.6

36

.62

6.6

07

.42

7.4

67

.47

To

tal

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00

10

0.0

01

00

.00


(201011to202122)

Bangaluru



179

eps_mega

Documents