ENVIRONMENTAL SCARCITY AND CONFLICT

UN-EU Partnership

Strengthening Capacity for the Consensual and Sustainable Management of Land and Natural Resources

The management of land and natural resources is one of the most critical challenges facing developing countries today. The exploitation of high-value natural resources, including oil, gas, minerals and timber has often been cited as a key factor in triggering, escalating or sustaining violent con�icts around the globe. Furthermore, increasing competition and con�ict for diminishing renewable resources, such as land and water, is on the rise. This is being further aggravated by environmental degradation, population growth and climate change. The mismanagement of land and natural resources is contributing to new con�icts and obstructing the peaceful resolution of existing ones.

To improve capacity for land and natural resource management and con�ict prevention, the European Union partnered with the Expert Reference Group of the UN Framework Team (FT) in late 2008. The aim of this partnership was to develop and implement a strategic multi-agency project focused on building the capacity of national stakeholders, the United Nations system, and the European Union to prevent land and natural resources from contributing to violent con�ict. Six UN agencies, programme or departments have been involved, including UNDP, DPA, UNEP, PBSO, UN-HABITAT and DESA. The partnership is also designed to enhance policy development and programme coordination between key actors at the �eld level.

The �rst outcome of this project is an inventory of existing tools and capacity within the UN system and a set of three Guidance Notes on addressing natural resource management and con�ict prevention. These Guidance Notes cover: (i) Land and con�ict (ii) Extractive industries and con�ict, (iii) Environmental scarcity and Con�ict, (iii) Capacity development for managing land and natural resources.

Based on the Guidance Notes, the second outcome of the project is to deliver a series of training modules for UN and EU �eld staff, as well as local partners, to enhance the knowledge and skills needed to understand, anticipate, prevent, and mitigate potential con�icts over land and natural resources. Participants will acquire the skills to formulate and operationalize preventive measures in relation to natural resource management (NRM) and con�ict.

In countries where speci�c NRM and con�ict challenges are identi�ed, the project will aim to provide focused technical assistance in the development of con�ict prevention strategies. This could include the deployment of staff and other experts to assist the UN Country Team (UNCT), including the Resident Coordinator (RC) or Peace and Development Advisor, in analysing options and designing programmes. Where needed, dedicated follow-up measures will also be undertaken on an inter-agency basis, in partnership with the EU.

For more information, please contact Mr. Mohamed Yahya at the Framework Team Secretariat on: +1-212-906-6622 or mohamed.yahya@undp.org or David Jenson of UNEP at David.Jensen@unep.org

The United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventive Action

with funding and support from the European Union

GUIDANCE NOTE FOR PRACTITIONERS

UN Interagency Framework Team for Preventive ActionHosted by: UNDP, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and RecoveryOne United Nations Plaza, Rm. 2084, New York, NY 10017, U.S.A.Tel.: +1-212-906-5422 E-mail: framework.team@undp.org

ENVIRONMENTAL SCARCITY AND CONFLICT

Executive SummaryNatural resources and conflictCon�ict arises when two or more groups believe their interests are incompatible. It is not in itself a negative phenomenon. Non-violent con�ict can be an essential component of social change and development, and is a necessary component of human interaction. Non-violent resolution of con�ict is possible when individuals and groups have trust in their governing structures, society and institutions to manage incompatible interests.

Con�ict becomes problematic when societal mechanisms and institutions for managing and resolving con�ict break down, giving way to violence. Societies with weak institutions, fragile political systems and divisive social relations can be drawn into cycles of con�ict and violence. Preventing this negative spiral and ensuring the peaceful resolution of disputes is a core interest of the international community. The challenge for UN, EU and other international actors is to promote positive social transformation, while mitigating the risks and potential impacts of violent and damaging con�ict.

Environmental factors are rarely, if ever, the sole cause of violent con�ict. However, the exploitation of natural resources and related environmental stresses can be implicated in all phases of the con�ict cycle, from contributing to the outbreak and perpetuation of violence to undermining prospects for peace. This Guidance Note accordingly focuses on the role of natural resources in triggering, escalating or sustaining violent con�ict. Its aim is to provide practical guidance on the role that the UN and EU can play in early warning and assessment, structural con�ict prevention (long-term measures) and direct con�ict prevention (short-term measures). It is meant to provide a combination of strategic advice and operational guidance, as well as to unite existing tools and guidance under a single framework.

Environmental Scarcity and conflictResource depletion, environmental degradation and climate change pose fundamental threats to human security. Separately or in combination with other factors, they can destabilize livelihoods, negatively affect ecosystems, and undermine peace and development. Where local and national institutions lack the capacity to resolve disputes that may arise over the degradation or depletion of resources, violent con�ict can emerge. As population and economic growth increase, so do the demand for scarce resources and the potential for con�ict. It is therefore crucial that UN and EU development practitioners understand how to prevent con�icts over natural resources, and how to contain and defuse such con�icts when they occur. This Guidance Note aims to support their efforts.

Drivers of environmental scarcityThe term “environmental scarcity” describes a situation where renewable resources – such as water, forests or productive land – are degraded or decreasing (in the sense that the resource is used faster than it is replenished). Environmental scarcity can also refer to the inequitable distribution of resources within a country or region.

The causes of environmental scarcity, as detailed below, can be local, regional, national, international or global. Inadequate waste disposal, for example, can pollute freshwater supplies in a community; large projects initiated by governments or the private sector may drastically reduce the size of forests and increase erosion; and the warming global climate may increase evaporation rates and reduce surface water availability. This Guidance Note begins by outlining the main components of environmental scarcity and describing how changes in resource availability can lead to con�ict between user groups. The following

three drivers of environmental scarcity are discussed:1. Demand for natural resources exceeds supply: Increases in

population growth and rates of consumption will reduce the per capita availability of a particular resource. Tensions may develop between competing user groups when the overall supply of key renewable resources can no longer support the needs of the local population. Where these tensions intersect with other issues, such as socio-economic, ethnic or religious cleavages, they can contribute to violence.

2. Degradation of natural resources reduces supply: The depletion or degradation of a speci�c resource can occur for a number of reasons, including overuse, pollution and violent con�ict itself. For example, pollution from industrial activities, agricultural run-off and poor management of waste can impact water quality, leading to health risks and disease, which can act as a source of grievance. Soils and forests can be impacted by con�ict, used to fund con�ict or adversely affected simply from conversion of one type of land use to another. Decreases in the supply of resources can place different user groups into direct competition and thereby lead to con�ict.

3. Access to natural resources is restricted or unequal: When one user group controls access to renewable resources to the detriment of others, natural resource-dependent communities are often marginalized. Violence can occur as these groups seek greater or more equitable access to key resources. Moreover, the struggle can become linked to recognition of identity, status and political rights, making con�ict resolution even more dif�cult.

These three components represent the main causes – or drivers – of environmental scarcity. Their role in contributing to violent con�ict can be aggravated by other in�uences over which local populations have very little control. These include climate change and natural hazards, socio-economic change, or a combination of the two:• Vulnerability to climate change and natural hazards: Climate

change and natural hazards can increase the risk of environmental scarcity. Climate change is expected to alter the availability and distribution of key natural resources, while �res, �oods, earthquakes, storms and other natural hazards can have a major and immediate impact on resource availability and livelihoods.

• Socio-economic change: When societies and economic systems undergo rapid socio-economic change, it is common for the interests and needs of natural resource users to be negatively affected. Economic development and the introduction of new technologies or major infrastructure often increase pressures on natural resources, triggering tension or compounding existing con�icts.

Lastly, all of the pathways described above are �ltered through governance factors. While robust institutions, policies and processes can help reduce the vulnerability of populations to environmental scarcity, weak governance has the opposite effect. Governance also plays a critical role in preventing tensions from arising between competing user groups and states. Indeed, the way that governance factors address increasing environmental scarcity in�uences the range of livelihood response options available to different groups. These include migration and adaptation strategies, coping and survival strategies, or direct violent con�ict.

Conflict prevention strategiesCon�ict prevention refers to the set of approaches, methods and mechanisms used to avoid, minimize and contain potential violence, or prevent the relapse of violence in post-con�ict countries. Where natural resources are a direct source of con�ict, or a contributing factor in a larger con�ict context, prevention strategies must take into account the complex inter-relationships between environmental causes, potential impacts and possible interventions. In most cases, the drivers of environmental scarcity interact with existing political,

social, or economic processes, requiring a response on multiple levels, including technical, socio-economic, political and institutional responses. In other words, there is often no “quick �x” to the problem. Appropriate interventions depend on the mix of drivers, livelihood responses, existing governance structures and the level of con�ict intensity.

Three main categories of interventions that must be undertaken by the UN and EU to successfully prevent con�icts over natural resources are examined in this Guidance Note: early warning and risk assessment, structural prevention (long-term strategies), and direct prevention (short-term strategies). Each of these is discussed below.

a) Early warning and assessmentEarly warning and assessment measures attempt to identify potential sources of con�ict over natural resources before they materialize. They consist of data collection, risk analysis, and the transmission of information with recommendations to targeted recipients. The use of early warning indicators and assessments to identify potential con�ict hotspots should form the basis for subsequent con�ict prevention programmes (structural or direct con�ict prevention, as described below). There are three main elements to early warning and assessment: • Conflict early warning: Con�ict early warning refers to the set

of activities that aim to collect, collate and analyse data on natural resources and livelihoods in order to detect and identify the signs of an emerging crisis before it becomes violent. Early warning can rely on qualitative or quantitative data, or a mix of the two. Warnings are issued to decision-makers and society when negative trends are detected in order to forestall violent con�ict, or the spreading and intensi�cation of con�ict.

• Disaster early warning: Disasters, including drought, violent storms, earthquakes, �oods, �res and tsunamis can severely impact resource availability and livelihoods. Timely early warning information for environmental shocks and stress can help affected communities take preventative measures or adapt livelihood strategies accordingly.

• Environmental risk assessments: Detailed and systematic environmental risk assessments can identify baseline environmental conditions together with key pressures, trends, levels of degradation and management capacities. These assessments should help identify potential con�ict hotspots where natural resources are becoming increasingly scarce and livelihoods increasingly constrained.

b) Structural conflict prevention Structural prevention consists of long-term measures that address the underlying causes of a potential con�ict and any escalating or triggering factors. It focuses on transforming key socio-economic, political and institutional factors that could lead to violent con�ict in the future. For natural resources, this encompasses three main types of linked interventions: • Reducing livelihood vulnerabilities and promoting

alternatives: Reducing livelihood vulnerabilities can take place through economic diversi�cation, adaptation, protection, and emergency assistance. The sustainable livelihoods framework is one of the available methods to analyse options and help determine suitable interventions and support measures.

• Improving the quality and quantity of natural resources: Improving the quality and quantity of natural resources can draw on three types of interventions: 1) demand-side strategies involving education and regulations to change behaviour, coupled with more ef�cient technologies to reduce demand; 2) supply-side interventions often involving new infrastructure or ecosystem restoration to increase supply; and 3) the identi�cation of alternatives to scarce resources.

• Strengthening NRM and participation: Strengthening NRM can be conducted through three main types of interventions:

1) implementing legal, policy and institutional changes for recognizing and respecting the rights of natural resource-dependent people, and regulating human activity that may have negative impacts on natural resources; 2) fostering greater participation in decision-making and management by the users; and 3) building local-level capacity for con�ict management if disputes arise.

c) Direct conflict preventionDirect con�ict prevention refers to short-term and often immediate environmental diplomacy measures that are aimed at preventing or containing the imminent escalation of a con�ict. For con�icts over natural resources, this includes:• Dialogue: Engaging in dialogue can be a non-threatening entry

point for parties to a con�ict as it requires little commitment or risk and can be broken off with little warning and at minimal political cost. Dialogue can allow a common understanding to emerge around a shared problem, which can contribute to building con�dence between parties.

• Information-sharing: Sharing technical information on the status of a disputed natural resource can increase the likelihood that agreed facts guide decision-making and the basis of the future relationships. It may also help to further de-politicize the problem by focusing on the technical aspects of a dispute.

• Joint assessments: Resolving differences can be facilitated by or conducted through joint �eld assessments. Ideally these are organized by impartial, independent third parties that are acceptable to both sides. These assessments should aim to develop a common understanding of the challenges and a shared vision for cooperation.

• Joint management plans: Developing mechanisms for coordinated or joint management can institutionalize cooperation. In cases where tensions remain high, jointly addressing a common environmental threat such as a pollution hotspot or extensive degradation can be a useful entry point.

• Legally binding agreements: Establishing legally binding agreements is often seen as the �nal step in environmental diplomacy, as cooperation becomes formalized between disputing parties.

• Dispute resolution support: Providing ongoing dispute resolution support to keep the diplomatic process on track can be a role that third parties can play. To avoid undermining existing local institutions and structures for resolving local con�icts, any intervention should be speci�cally focused, limited and temporary, and should aim to build on and strengthen pre-existing local capacity.

Despite the obvious complexity of the relationship between environmental scarcity and con�ict, two common themes emerge from the study, regardless of whether one focuses on causes/drivers or possible interventions.

First, early warning systems are essential to identify potential problems that could eventually result in violent con�ict. The ability to detect potential con�icts early on allows for far more �exibility in determining what preventative actions are needed.

Second, multi-stakeholder dialogue processes are crucial to ensuring that local communities and marginalized groups are heard and that individuals from different levels of government, civil society and the private sector are empowered. The cases presented throughout the paper indicate that bringing parties in con�ict together – if only for technical discussions – can build trust, foster common identities and lead to con�ict resolution. While rational discourse cannot be considered a direct path to peacebuilding, it is rare that con�icts are resolved in the absence of such discourse.

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