environmental scanning: what it is and how to do it
DESCRIPTION
This webinar introduces participants to environmental scanning: what it is and how to do it. We will cover: - what environmental scanning is; - why every organisation should have a scanning system; - how scanning informs strategy development; and - how to get started with scanning in your organisation. All organisations face continuous change today. Finding out what matters for your organisation, what will shape its future and how to develop responses to that change are all critical strategic tasks. And all those tasks are underpinned by a strong environmental scanning system. If you work in a strategy position or just want to find out more about environmental scanning and how it can be used in your organisation, don't miss this webinar.TRANSCRIPT
Maree ConwayThinking Futures
Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it
Webinar
September 2014
Thinking Futures: working with people to do strategic foresight in practice
The webinarWhat is environmental scanning and why you should do it
Environmental scanning and strategy
Getting started with scanning
Back to work
What is ES?
ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment
to better understand the nature of trends and deep drivers of change
and their likely future impact on your organisation.
Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high
quality strategic thinking…
…that informs the development of futures
ready strategy for an organisation.
Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies an organisation
to respond to the challenges of the future
Futures Ready Strategy
Acting proactively not reactively
Focusing on exploration not prediction
Making wise decisions not ‘bet the farm’ gambles
Why a scanning system?
Strengthen the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategy development
Deepen thinking to create long term context for today’s decision making
Integrates past, present and future
Why a scanning system?
Identify strategic implications for your organisation – both opportunities and challenges
Give you enough time to prepare and be proactive (not react via crisis management), and manage potential risks ahead of time
To give you a competitive edge – seeing opportunities before they hit mainstream
Scanning and Strategy Development
Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan as the major outcome, rather
than a shared understanding of your organisation’s
preferred future to inform action today.
Think tomorrow is going to be more of today
Aren’t prepared to cope with the unexpected or unfamiliar
Usually don’t explore the long term future (10-20 years out)
Prefer quantitative over qualitative information
Don’t challenge assumptions
Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs, hopes and fears about the future
Focus on data at the expense of strategic thinking
Something’s missingTraditional planning approaches are increasingly irrelevant
View the plan as the end game
What we have
Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm.
Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it.
We call it ‘strategic planning’.
What we need
Moving into the progressive futures realm
Challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future
New planning – people focused, collaborative, futures ready
Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation
Planning vs Strategy
Planning is not strategy
Planning = todayStrategy = future
Not just a matter of semantics – language matters
Strategic planning approaches want this
Futures ready approaches accept this
SeeingIdentifying and understanding
change
DoingImplementing and aligning
ThinkingInterpreting implications
and deciding on options
SeeingIdentifying and understanding
change
DoingImplementing and aligning
ThinkingInterpreting
implications and deciding on
options
Getting started
BIGOrganisation
DEEP
LONG
BIG
Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-decisions coalesce to create global futures
DEEP
Our assumptions encase us in the past
We all have blind spots that cause us to miss important information
Blindspots AKA cognitive biasesConfirmation biasSeek people & sites who agree with us; discount opposing views to counter discomfort
In group biasOverestimate capacity of our groups at expense of those we don’t know
Gambler’s fallacyPut too much weight on previous events as predictors of future events
Post purchase rationalisationConvincing yourself a crappy decision was a great idea all along – avoiding discomforrt
Neglecting probabilityAssumptions about peril and risk (eg risk of dying in planes and cars)
Observational selection biasSuddenly seeing things we didn’t see before (eg pregnant women, your new car)
Status-Quo biasMaking choices to ensure things stay the same, or change as little as possible; change will make things worse
Negativity biasWe pay more attention to bad news – we think it’s more important or profound
Bandwagon effectGoing with the flow of the crowdGroupthink, hive mentality
Projection biasAssuming everyone thinks just like me – and so they agree with me
Current Moment biasWe have a hard time imaging ourselves in the future and alter thinking/behaviour accordingly – comfort now, pain later
Anchoring biasCompare and contrast a limited number of items (why we need to scan big, deep and long)http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational
LONG
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
Today FutureTIME
UNCERTAINTY
Linear Future
Low
High
Possible Futures
Usual Planning Timeframe(3-5 years)
Trend
Getting started
Why are you scanning? What is your purpose?
First, define your purpose
What are you going to do with the output?
Where does scanning ‘fit’ in your strategy cycle?
Scanning is not a solitary activity…
Adapted from K. van der Heijden
IndustryEnvironment
Social Environment
Suppliers
Clients
Competitors
Organisation
Driving Forces
Driving Forces
Factors / Trends Issues / ForcesSocialTechnologicalEconomicEcologicalPolitical…
Customers
Members of Wider Society
Context: the external environment
Global Drivers of Change
Industry Trends
Your organisation
Strategic scanning happens at the global level – what are the forces shaping the change you are seeing in your industry?
You know a lot about this – it is the change already here that you deal with every day.
Context: a framework for understanding what you are seeing
Things happening
Trends
Change Forces
Things Happening
Trend(grouping of events)
Change Forces(moves trends in certain directions,
broad in scope and long term in nature)
Trend(grouping of events)
Change Forces(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
When you start scanning, you will find lots of things happening
Things Happening
Trend(grouping of events)
Change Forces(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends.
Things Happening
But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through…
Trend(grouping of events)
Change Forces(moves trends in certain directions, broad
in scope and long term in nature)
What we are really interested in exploring is what is shaping these trends.
Things Happening
And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will start to make sense
Where to look?
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs
Government Institutions
Few cases, local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
Most scanning takes place here
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs
Government Institutions
Few cases, local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
But we need to look on the fringe as well
Don’t dismiss the outliers…
Where to look…Newspapers, twitter, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers, sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities.
Shaping Tomorrow
Some Scanning Sites
Shaping Tomorrow Trendwatching Now and Next Strategic Business Insights Arlington Institute
Looking for…
What is happening today with your issue?
What are other people saying about its evolution over time? How credible are they?
Is it relevant to your strategic decision/issue?
Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation.
Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures
As you scan…
What are the major driving forces?What big surprises are on the horizon?What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)?What are the sources of inspiration and hope?
Richard Slaughter, Foresight International
As you scan…
If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop.First, ask why do I think it’s rubbish?Second, take another look.Third, ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening.
rends
Emerging Issues
The weird and unimaginable
Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking…
Classifying hits
Social
Technology
Economics
Environment
Politics
Values
VERGE Framework
A way to frame and explore changes in the world
Focused not on type of change (eg technological/social) but on point of impact across people and human systems
Developed by Richard Lum and Michelle Bowman in 2004
VERGE FrameworkDefine: The concepts, ideas, paradigms used to define ourselves and the world around us. Examples: worldview, philosophy, archetypes, religion, social values
Relate: The social structures and relationships which define people and organizations. Examples: family and lifestyle groups, government, demographics, habitat and ecosystem, education
Connect: The processes and technologies through which we create goods and services. Example: manufacturing, work force, biotechnology, wealth, engineering
Create: The technologies that connect people, places, and things. Example: information technology, transportation, language, media, visual arts, space
Consume: The way in which we acquire and use the goods and services we create. Examples: consumer preferences, modes of exchange, marketing, retail practices
When is a hit useful?
Does the hit help you to:
understand your issue better? identify a new way of seeing the issue? explore (rather than just accept) trends and their
potential impacts? identify and assess possible future threats and
opportunities, including radical alternatives? challenge existing assumptions underpinning
current polices and practice?
Shaping Tomorrow
Ultimately…
You need to trust your intuition
Your expertise, knowledge and insight is the best gauge of usefulness.
But, remember your blind spots!
Recording and Sharing Hits
What to record
Title Summary Source and date published Initial assessment of implications Tag/VSTEEP/VERGE category
http://www.thinkingfutures.shapingtomorrow.com
Reporting Your Findings
A snapshot report of the external environment.
A background paper for the strategic planning cycle.
Regular trend reports on single trends. More detailed quarterly reports on
implications of trends and drivers. Quick snippets about what you are finding. Rating the hits – staff involvement.
In all cases, add in trigger questions to prompt discussion/conversation.
What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future?
What might be the implications for your organisation?
How might you respond?
How, and in what ways, could this information be relevant to my organisation?
Reports
Back to Work
Challenge: Info overload
Challenge: stretching your thinking
Challenge: Finding the Time
Individual Scanning
Unconscious
Implicit
Solitary
Organisational Scanning
Conscious
Explicit
Collective
The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information that strengthens your understanding of your organisation’s long term context… …to enable you to make wise strategic decisions today.
We do scanning to avoid having this perspective on the future…
Enjoy your
scanning!
Download Building Strategic Futures Guides
Getting Started with Futures Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it Strategic Thinking: what it is and how to do it
http://thinkingfutures.net/resources/building-strategic-futures-guides
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Get in touchMaree Conway | Thinking FuturesPO Box 2118, Hotham Hill, 3051Australia
Telephone: +61 (0) 3 9016 9506Mobile: +61 (0) 425 770 181
Email: [email protected]
Web: http://thinkingfutures.net
Twitter: @mareeconway