environmental energy technologies internetdatatalk001006.ppt electricity used by the internet: how...

Environmental Energy TechnologiesInternetdatatalk001006.ppt

Electricity used by the Internet: How an urban legend has become conventional wisdom

Jonathan Koomey, Ph.D.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

[email protected], 510/486-5974, http://enduse.lbl.gov/

For more details on the analysis discussed here, go to

http://enduse.lbl.gov/projects/infotech.html or http://n4e.lbl.gov

Download:

http://enduse.lbl.gov/shareddata/internetdatatalk010406.ppt

Presented at the U.S. Telecom Association Conference Dallas, Texas

May 22, 2001


Beware false premisesThe fascinating impressiveness of rigorous mathematical analysis, with its atmosphere of precision and elegance, should not blind us to the defects of the premises that condition the whole process. There is perhaps no beguilement more insidious and dangerous than an elaborate and elegant mathematical process built upon unfortified premises.

--T. C. Chamberlain, late 1800s--

21st century translation: Garbage in, Garbage out


Background The Internet Begins with Coal, by Mark

Mills, was published in Forbes in May 1999.

Results were widely cited and have become conventional wisdom.

Memo to EPA dated 9 December 1999 was our initial response

Congressional testimony given by Mills, Jay Hakes, and Joe Romm on 2 February 2000.


Background (continued) Koomey rebuttal to Mills testimony

completed in August 2000.

Our comprehensive analysis of office equipment electricity use presented in August 2000, and full documentation completed in February 2001.

Mills’ claims are becoming less widely believed, but many people still cite them.


Mills’ analysis was flawed

Bad data: 1-2 kW PCs, 500 kW central offices, 250 kW mainframes, 1 kW routers in LANs.

Bad boundary definitions: Just what part of a PC or a server is “associated with the internet”, anyway?

Overlooked systemic effects: information tech. can affect the efficiency of many processes.


Mills’ electricity “used by the internet”, corrected by LBNL

TW

h p

er y

ear


Data needs Equipment sales Power use (W) by operating mode Usage (Hours) by operating modes

Equipment stocks (estimate using sales and lifetimes, and/or assess using surveys)

Materials use, reuse, and recycling

Estimate energy use and emissions

Systemic effects (e.g., telecommuting, e-commerce)


Latest estimate of office equipment electricity use by sector in 1999

Residential 12%Industrial 13%

Network 4%

Commercial 71%

Total = 74 TWh

http://enduse.lbl.gov/Projects/InfoTech.html


Comparison of Estimates of Energy Use for Commercial Office Equipment in 1999

Printer

Desktop/Portable/Server Computer

Display/Terminal

Mainframe/Minicomputer

Copier/Fax

An

nual

Ene

rgy

Use

(T

Wh)


A key uncertainty: Data centers/server hotels

Some utilities receiving requests for tens to hundreds of MW of power from proposed data centers

Estimates for power use almost certainly too large— One facility maximum = 90 W/sf, actual <40W/sf. — Another facility claimed 65 W/sf, but floor area defined

incorrectly to exclude aisles and other common areas, leading to an overestimate of power use (this definition is critical)

— Still another facility took direct server load and multiplied by three (!) to account for cooling, lighting, and other uses (implies a COP of about 0.5, 3-4 times too low)


Upper bound estimate to electricity used by data centers in the U.S

(1) Floor area taken from Juarez, Richard A. 2000. Virtual Bricks II: Virtual Econ 101 Update: A Comprehensive Guide for Understanding eCommerce Infrastructure Evolution and Convergence. Boston, MA: FleetBoston Robertson Stephens Inc. May. There is big uncertainty in the floor area number (could be as much as a factor of two too high).

(2) Power density is an upper bound based on recent discussions with experts. Ignores the possibility that server loads are shifted from existing installations and not new loads.

(3) Electricity use calculated assuming 8760 hours per year operation, flat load curve.

(4) Total U.S. electricity use taken from EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2000.

Contact: [email protected], 510/486-5974.

Units 1999 2000 2005Floor area at end of year Msf 7 20 50Data center total power density W/sf 65 65 65Data center total power GW 0.5 1.3 3.3Data center electricity use TWh 4 11 28

Data centers as % of total use 0.1% 0.3% 0.8%Average annual contribution to demand growth 0.2% 0.09%

Total U.S. electricity use TWh 3288 3360 3647


Possible systemic effects of information technology (IT)

Commercial floor space— Reduced office space— Reduced warehouse space

Changes in travel patterns

More efficient use of energy and materials

IT + utility deregulation = energy service markets for big service providers


Something unusual may be going on

Source: Joe Romm, Center for Energy and Climate Solutions

ANNUAL GROWTH RATES

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Electricity Energy CO2 GDP

1992-1996 1996-2000


Conclusions Misinformation seems to spread more

quickly than truth.

Computers are NOT the cause of the California power crisis.

Electricity used by computers and network equipment, including telecommunications and manufacturing energy = 3% of U.S. electricity use U.S., not 13% as Mills implies.


Conclusions (continued)

Understanding the systemic effects of information technology is critically important.

Credible data are urgently needed.


Join the network for energy, environment, efficiency, and the

information economy (N4E)

http://n4e.lbl.gov


If you really want to get the numbers right http://www.numbersintoknowledge.com

environmental energy technologies internetdatatalk001006.ppt electricity used by the internet: how...

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