Environmental Change Institute

April 21, 2023

The role of energy demand in a low carbon future

Nick EyreEnvironmental Change Institute

World Primary Energy Demand 1971-2009

How can we decarbonise an economy?

In any economy

Carbon emissions, C ≡ (C/E) x (E/GDP) x GDP

where C = carbon emissions, and E = energy use

There are therefore only two ways to decarbonise a growing economy

Reduce the ‘carbon ratio’, C/E by changing energy sources

Reduce the ‘energy ratio’ by improving energy efficiency

How are we doing in the UK?

What should this tell us?

UK carbon targets are very tough – 75% reduction by 2050 (whilst the economy grows by >100%)

To deliver such a big change, we will need to improve the ‘energy ratio’ and the ‘carbon ratio’

Historically we have done a lot better at improving the energy ratio than the carbon ratio

The media focus on ‘supply side’ issues (nuclear, carbon sequestration, renewables, shale gas etc) is unbalanced

There is also a need to think about ‘how we use energy’.

Quantifying demand reductionThe “Low Energy Lifestyles” project

The research project UK Energy Research Centre project

“Energy 2050” One scenarios looking at low carbon,

resilient energy futures for the UK. Published by Earthscan

The team: Nick Eyre, Christian Brand, Russell

Layberry (Oxford) Jillian Anable (Aberdeen) Neil Strachan (University College, London)

What are lifestyles?

A precise definition is

difficult....

but we know one when

we see it

A high energy lifestyle

The low energy lifestyle scenario

Social change leads to a culture in which lower energy use is more socially acceptable, leading to:

greater use of green technologies in buildings and personal transport..

and different behavioural patterns in their use

It needs to be supported by public policy – taxes, incentives, regulations etc and new infrastructure – smart grids, heat networks, electric

mass transit

Household energy use assumptions

Returns to mid-1990s levels

Usage stabilises

Universal

Biomass, CHP and heat pumps

Widespread

Household sector: impacts on heating

Transport energy use assumptions

Distance travelled

Modal choice

Vehicle choice

Reduced by 21%

Car use falls from 67% to 38%

Cycling rises from 1% to 13%

Electric vehicles dominant

Accessibility

Localism

Slower speeds

Compact cities

Car-free zones

Car clubs

ICT

Tele-working

Tele-shopping

Less air travel

Transport sector: impacts on fuel demand

Conclusions: overall impacts

Lifestyle change can produce energy technology choice and behaviour change, leading to:

A reduction in energy demand in homes and transport of ~50% by 2050

A reduction in national energy use and carbon emissions of ~30% by 2050

A reduction in the cost of delivering a low carbon energy system by ~£70 billion/year

Less use of gas and oil, and therefore better energy security