environment in 2018 - anu centre for water and landscape...
TRANSCRIPT
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Australia’s Environment in 2018 Briefing
4 April 2019, Canberra
Albert van Dijk
Shoshana Rapley
Centre for Water and Landscape Dynamics Fenner School of Environment & Society
The Australian National University
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About Australia’s Environment
• An annual summary of environmental conditions in Australia
• Largely to limited to data sources that can tell us something about the previous year – so not complete
• Intended to demonstrate how the 5-yearly State of Environment report can be supplemented
• Summarises large amounts of data from various sources you may not be aware of, or cannot examine yourself
• Includes additional integrative analysis using ANU’s model-data fusion system OzWALD
• Collaborative effort with NCI, TERN, IMOS and ALA.
The Conversation
Australia’s Environment Explorer www.ausenv.online/2018
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Partners and data providers • National Computational Infrastructure (NCI)
• Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN)
• Atlas of Living Australia (ALA)
• Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS)
• Geoscience Australia
• CSIRO
• Bureau of Meteorology
• Australian Bureau of Statistics
• Dept. Environment and Energy
• NASA, NOAA, ECMWF, and others
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Special thanks • Rowena Smith, Luigi Renzullo (ANU)
• Joel Rahman (FlowMatters)
• Jingbo Wang, Kelsey Druken (NCI)
• Matt Paget, Juan Pablo Guerschman (CSIRO)
• Norman Mueller (GA)
• Lee Belbin (ALA)
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Rivers
Wetlands
Soil
Vegetation
Land cover
Biodiversity
Topics covered today
Population
Global change
Oceans
Temperature
Rainfall
Fire
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Population pressure
Australia’s population • Increased by ~433K in 2018
• Exceeded 25 million in June 2018
• 33% increase from 2000
• More than ¾ of growth is in capital cities
• Greatest increase in Victoria
source: ABS
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Ozone hole
• Increased 27% from 2017
• 4th largest since 2005 peak
• Growth due to cold temperatures exacerbating ozone depletion
Source: NASA, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
Global context
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Global context
Atmospheric CO2
• Peak of 411 ppm in 2018
• 10% increase from 370 ppm in 2000
• 29% increase from 316 ppm in 1960
• Growth rate 2.86 ppm in 2018
• 33% above 2000-2017 average
Source: NOAA
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Global mean temperature • 2018 fourth warmest year on record
• Past 5 years collectively warmest on modern record
• 0.83 °C warmer than 1951-1980 mean
Global context
Source: NASA
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Global context
Source: US National Snow and Ice Data Center
Sea ice extent • 12% decline since 1979
(area approximately the size of Western Australia)
• Up <1% (165,000 km2) on 2017 (about the size of 3x Tasmania)
• Sudden decline in Antarctic sea ice since 2014 continued
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Ocean Heat Content • Oceans store most of the heat from
global warming
• 2018 broke the previous year’s heat record, continuing a steady increase.
Source: IAP CAS
Oceans
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Sea level rise • Sea level rose 2.9mm in 2018
• Since 1993, sea level has risen 91 mm or an average 3.6 mm per year
Source: NASA
Oceans
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Sea level around Australia • Has been rising faster than
the average 3.6 mm per year
• Influenced by climate variability associated with the El Niño/La Niña cycle and the Indian Ocean Dipole
Oceans
Source: CSIRO
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Source: BoM / NOAA
Sea surface temperature (SST)
Oceans
• Average SST around Australia was lower than 2017
• Still 0.46 °C above 1961-1990 average
• ~1 °C warming since 1910
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Oceans
Sea surface temperature
• Mean SST was in the top 10% of years everywhere except the southwest
• Parts of Tasman sea hottest SST recorded. Mean Tasman sea SST the 2nd highest recorded
• December SST in south-east cool due to Tasman sea upwelling
Source: NOAA, BoM
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Trends in mean hard coral based on broad-scale (manta tow) surveys up to March 2018
Source: AIMS
Oceans
• No bleaching
• No recovery
Great Barrief Reef condition
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Rainfall
Precipitation Combining satellite and BoM gauge data
• National average 422 mm
• 15% less than 2017
• 11% below long-term average
Source: BoM/NASA/ANU
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Rainfall
Regional differences
Source: BoM/NASA/ANU
• Lowest in parts of NSW and north since at least 2000
• Above average in parts of WA
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Mean temperature • 3rd highest mean temperature (+1.14 °C)
• Warmest year on record for NSW
• 2nd highest maximum temperatures (+1.55 °C)
Reference: 1961-1990 mean
Source: BoM
Temperature
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Record temperatures • Summer-like heat records in April
• Nov/Dec heat wave in northern Queensland
• Highest max temperatures this century across North Australia
• 3rd-highest December temperature ever: 49.3 °C (Marble Bar)
Source: BoM
Temperature
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High temperatures • Largest number of days over
35°C in several other regions
• Record heat wave on FNQ coast in November
• Cool summer in SW WA
• Fire season several months longer than normal
Temperature
Source: ECMWF/ANU
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Frost days • Frosty nights in several areas
where frost is uncommon due to dry soils and atmosphere
Temperature
Source: ECMWF/ANU
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Snow cover • No snow in early winter in Tasmania
• Somewhat below average overall
Temperature
Source: NASA / ANU
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Fire
Fire occurrence Derived from GA’s Sentinel Hotspots fire monitoring system based on satellite observations
• 27% fewer fires than in 2018
• Fewer fires in Top End and WA
• More fire in Eastern Australia
Source: GA/ANU
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• January 14, Sawyers Valley, WA: 1,000 ha
• January 19, Pillaga NP, NSW: 17,000 ha
• March 18, Tathra, NSW: 1,000 ha+, 70+ houses lost
• March 19, Terang, Vic: 6,700 ha
• April 15, Holsworthy/Menai, NSW
• May, Wellstead, WA: 4,000 ha
• May, Porongurup, WA: 17,000 ha
• August 15, Bega, NSW: 2,300 ha
• August 15, Budawang NP: 1,516 ha, 1 casualty
• August 18, Salt Ash, NSW: 2,000 ha
• October 11, south of Broome, WA - 880,000 ha
• November 25, Blackdown Tablelands, Qld - 1,000+ ha
• December 4, Eungella NP, Qld - 110,000 ha
Major events
Fire
Source: GA/ANU
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December 4, Eungella NP, Qld 110,000 ha
Photo: ABC News: Jessica Kidd
Fire
Source: GA/ANU
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Biomass burning Estimated by Europe-based Global Fire Assimilation System from model and satellite data
• Most emissions from Northern Australia
• 161 Mt C burnt in 2018
• 10% more than in 2017
Fire
Source: ECMWF/ANU
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By land use • Increase mainly from natural
environments and native pasture in northern WA and Queensland
Fire
Source: ECMWF/ANU
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Streamflow depth (mm) of water flowing into rivers per unit area, derived from ANU’s OzWALD system
Rivers
Daly River flood, January 2018
Photo: NT News
• Estimated national average runoff 563 GL in 2018
• 20% less than 2017
• below average
• Major events:
• Jan: WA/NT
• Mar: N Qld
• May: Tasmania
Source: ANU
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Rivers
Streamflow • Very low inflows in
most catchment in SE Australia, some lower than Millennium Drought
• Lowest this century in Ord Catchment
Source: ANU
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Rivers
Water storages • Storage declines in all major water
supply systems except Perth
Source: BoM WaterData
Closing volume
2018 (GL) Change from 2017
GL %
Murray-Darling
Basin 11,901 - 5,427 -31%
Ord 6,335 - 2,560 -29%
Canberra 181 - 44 -20%
Sydney 1,575 - 452 -22%
Brisbane 1,670 - 51 -3%
Melbourne 1,125 - 132 -11%
Adelaide 114 - 32 -22%
Perth 286 + 77 +37%
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Inundated area The fraction area covered by water (less than a day or the entire year) mapped from MODIS and Landsat satellite imagery
• 53,398 km2 was flooded in 2018
• Lower than ever during the Millennium Drought
• 23% less than in 2017
Wetlands
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Soil moisture mm water in the top 6m profile, derived from ANU’s OzWALD system
• Estimated national soil moisture storage decreased by 38 mm (or 6%) in 2018
• Good start to the year in N Australia, but very dry cool season in SE Australia.
Soil condition
Source: ANU
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Regional differences
• Soil driest since 2000 along SE Coast, NT and Northern Qld
• Wettest since 2000 in parts of WA
Soil condition
Source: ANU
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Exposed soil Percentage of soil that is not protected by live or dead plant matter, from satellite imagery
• Deterioration across most of Australia
• Worst since 2009
Soil condition
Source: CSIRO/ANU
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Vegetation leaf area The one-sided area of living leaves per unit surface area (m2/m2), produced by NASA from their MODIS satellite data.
• 11% decline from 2018
• Worst conditions since 2009
Vegetation
Source: NASA / ANU
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Vegetation leaf area Regional differences
• Poor vegetation condition in NSW and SA
• Improved conditions in southern WA
Vegetation
Source: NASA / ANU
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Vegetation carbon uptake Photosynthesis, derived from the ANU OzWALD system
• 15% lower than 2018
• Lowest since 2009
Vegetation
Source: ANU
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Differences by land use Biomass dry matter production estimated from carbon uptake by the OzWALD system
• Poor year for dryland cropping (except WA), irrigation, grazing
• Dip but positive trends in forestry and natural environments
Vegetation
-11% -4%
-20% -17% -17%
-34% +17%
Source: ANU
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Persistent cover
• Current definitions of ‘forest’ lead to artefacts in annual reporting. Persistent cover is more reliably assessed from satellite instruments.
• Mapped from MODIS satellite imagery.
• Persistent cover generally equivalent to woody vegetation canopy cover, but not always. Can include other evergreen pasture or vegetation
• Reductions can be due to different processes (drought, fire, clearing).
Persistent cover
Source: CSIRO/ANU
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Persistent cover
• Widespread reductions in persistent cover, overall 12% less than 2017
• Equivalent to net loss of 12 Mha canopy cover
• Mostly related to water availability, compounded by fire and clearing.
Persistent cover
Source: CSIRO/ANU
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• Greatest losses in cropping and grazing areas in SE Australia
• Largely related to cover reduction in perennial pasture
Persistent cover by land cover type
2018 Change from 2017
Mha Mha % Natural environments 41.3 -4.1 -10%
Forestry 6.7 -0.2 -3%
Grazing 33.0 -6.5 -20%
Cropping 3.3 -0.7 -22% Other uses 1.3 -0.1 -8%
Total 85.5 -11.6 -12%
Persistent cover
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Biodiversity
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Biodiversity
Accounting for biodiversity Comprehensive data on changes in biodiversity, species distribution and abundance are either impossible or extremely expensive to collect.
Some alternatives:
• Threatened species listings
• Rapid survey methods
• Bio-indicators
• Key Threatening Processes (KTPs)
• Citizen science
Southern corroboree frog critically endangered since 2013
photo
: J.
Lane
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Biodiversity
Threatened species list • 54 species newly listed
• Total 1775, +3% from 2017 and +47% from 2000
• Conservation advice for 97%
• Recovery plans for 43%
Source: EPBC Act List, DoEE
flora
fishes
frogs
reptiles
birds
mammals
other fauna
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Biodiversity
Threatened species • 54 new listing mostly
intersect with 2017 distribution
• Extended distribution of threatened species in south-west Australia
Source: EPBC Act List, DoEE, ALA
Number of threatened species (pre-2018)
ALA records for newly listed species
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Biodiversity
Source: Federal Department of Environment and Energy, Atlas of Living Australia
5 down-listed
59 added
14 up-listed
1 extinct
Solanum bauerianum Bridal flower
Atrichornis clamosus Noisy scrub-bird
Euploea alcathoe enastri Gove crow butterfly
Antechinus arktos Black-tailed antechinus
Photo: Gold Coast Bulletin Photo: Alan Danks, ABC Photo: Wikipedia commons Photo: Wikipedia commons
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49
Biodiversity
Photo: DoEE Photo: Jodi Rowley, Australian Museum
Ph
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: Neh
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Species ‘rediscovered’ in 2018
Booroolong frog (Litoria booroolongensis) presumed locally extinct since 1975
Douglas’s broad-headed bee (Hesperocolletes douglasi) rediscovered after declared extinct in 1994
Narbarlek subspecies (Petrogale concinna) presumed extinct in mainland WA since 70s
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50
Biodiversity
Source: UNSW 2017 Eastern Australian Waterbird Survey Report
Annual airborne count over wetlands in NSW and southern Queensland by UNSW
All major indices in decline: total abundance, breeding species richness, breeding abundance, wetland area, bird concentration
Rapid surveys: Water birds
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Bio-indicators: Flying Foxes
• Live in colonies, hence a useful bio-
indicator of heat stress in a broader range of fauna
• 4 species in Australia, 2 EPBC listed
• Grey-headed flying fox vulnerable
• Spectacled flying fox up-listed to endangered (February 2019)
• Susceptible to heat illness above 39°C and mortality occurs above 42°C
• Major mortality event during December 2018 FNQ heatwave
Biodiversity
Source: CSIRO
Photo: David White, ABC Photo: Geoff Holland
Spectacled flying fox population
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Bio-indicators: Sharks Shark net and drumlines intend to reduce human interactions also indicative of depletion of shark populations over last half century
Capture per unit effort of shark nets in Queensland. Source: Roff et al. (2018)
Biodiversity
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Key Threatening Processes Invasive species (affect 82%* of species)
• Novel biota (e.g. goats, deer, buffalo, horses) • Rabbits • Red fox • Rats on offshore islands • Feral cats • Pigs • Cane toads • Noisy miners • Gamba and other exotic grasses • Escaped garden plants • Yellow crazy ant • Red fire ant
Biodiversity
53
Source: SPRAT
Pathogens (affect 16% of species)
• Root-rot fungus (Phytophthora cinnamomi) • Chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) • Psittacine Circoviral (beak and feather) disease
Direct human impacts
• Land clearing (35%) • Anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases (36%) • Trawling bycatch of sea-turtles (0.3%) • Long-line bycatch of seabirds (2%) • Marine debris killing wildlife (2.5%)
* Direct effects only. Indirect and not yet documented effects are not included in percentage
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Key Threatening Processes: invasive species
Photo: Wikipedia commons
Biodiversity
54
Source: Kearney et al. (2018)
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Feral horses
Estimated 7,000–8,000 wild horses in the Australian Alps
Affect 67 threatened species, inc. 16 in the Alps
Kosciuszko Wild Horse Heritage Act 2018 (NSW) June
90 researchers signed the Kosciuszko Science Accord (8/11/2018)
Ph
oto
: OEH
, Dr G
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Ph
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: W. C
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, Flickr
Biodiversity
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Ph
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: Pa
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Source: DOEE, SPRAT database Alpine buttercup Broad-toothed rat
Horse exclosure
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Chytrid fungus
Most threatening pathogen in the world
Still causing declines in amphibian populations globally and in Australia
Arrived in Australia in 1970s - ongoing and present declines
Caused decline of 43 species: 7 now extinct
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Biodiversity
Photo
: C
. D
oughty
Photo
: P
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aylo
r, T
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ate
ned S
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s R
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Hub
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Biodiversity
Citizen* Science: The Atlas of Living Australia
* and non-citizen
Photo: D. Rowland Photo: Wiki-media Photo: M. Chappel Photo: D. Paton Photo: JJ Harrison
Birds 56% of all records. Five most recorded species:
Australian Magpie 1.3% of all records Magpie-lark Willie wagtail Galah Welcome swallow
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Ph
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: eBird
Ph
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: bird
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Noisy miner Native honeyeater, only native KTP
Affect 4 threatened species and 1 entire ecological community (Victorian temperate woodland; 24 birds)
Biodiversity
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Ratio of ALA noisy miner sightings over all ALA bird sightings, with 1998-2002 average = 100
Common myna: Asian
starling, pest biota
Different bird:
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Headline indicators
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Headline indicators
Change from previous year Hides much context and complexity, e.g.
• Some changes have desirable as well as undesirable impacts
• Indicators can have high or low natural variability
• Differences between regions
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Headline indicators
Ranking years • Provides more historic context
• Environmental Condition Score (ECS): composite indicator that averages seven indicators, each scored between 0 and 10
• Terrestrial environment only
• Subjective, though many indicators are correlated with water availability
3.7
-1.8
ACT
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Headline indicators
Ranking years • Provides more historic context
• Environmental Condition Score (ECS): composite indicator that averages seven indicators, each scored between 0 and 10
• Terrestrial environment only
• Subjective, though many indicators are correlated with water availability
2.7
-3.9
National
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Regional differences
• Conditions deteriorated to below average in all states
• Worst conditions since 2000 in NSW
• Least bad conditions in WA and Tas
Headline indicators
2.7
-3.9
National
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2017 in Summary
• Global change continues unabated, climate change is here
• ..
• ..
• ..
• ..
• Ecosystem integrity and biodiversity are poorly known, but declining
• Human pressure and ecological decline continue
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For more information, visit Australia’s Environment online:
www.ausenv.online/2018