entrance exam module 2- spring 2012

7/29/2019 Entrance Exam Module 2- Spring 2012

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Entrance Exam Test 2 Spring 2012

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Business and the euro crisis

Under the volcano

Europes companies are preparing for the worst. It will change them

Oct 8th 2011 |BERLIN AND PARIS| from the print edition

THERE is nothing sinister about this, says the chief executive of a Portuguese drugs firm. We have toconsider: what would happen with inflation, how would we get credit, collect debts and pay our suppliers andworkers? For months he and other Portuguese bosses have been rehearsing plans for what to do if the eurozone fractures or breaks apart completely. Many firms also have formal contingency plans for a sudden exit by

Portugal by itself.

Such planning is not just a matter for companies in threatened economies on the periphery. Even a partial

break-up would be catastrophic for companies throughout the euro zone, and pretty dire elsewhere in Europessingle market. Like a hard punch on the jaw, it would cause painful dislocation. New currencies would have to

be introduced. Panic would seize the banks on which companies depend for funding. Economic growth wouldhit a wall.

This is not a calamity it is easy to plan for. News of a euro-zone fragmentation, if it comes, will come

suddenly, like a declaration of war. Where countries leave, borders will likely be closed to prevent mass

smuggling of euro notes and coins from peripheral euro-zone countries. Similar barriers are likely toparalyse cross-border electronic payments, and maybe even telecoms traffic.

With the financial sector in disarray companies with operations across the euro zone would fend for

themselves in each country. Where are their euro debtors and creditors? Which are the German euros, whichGreek or Italian? A company treasurer would need this information on his desk in a couple of hours.

That would be just the beginning. A company used to operating across Europe, shuttling containers daily,flipping staff from one office to another, would have to rethink its entire portfolio against a background of

market chaos, bank runs and supply-chain shocks. Should it split itself into two or more parts between a coreEurope with a hard currency and a periphery with many weak ones? New treasuries, legal identities,communication and logistics systems and so on cannot be set up overnight. But the quicker a company can do

it, and the more prepared it is now, the less its business will be disrupted.

The companies thinking the shouldnt-be-thinkable in these ways are unwilling to share their insights. For onething, good strategies, should there be any such, may be less good if too widely followed. And in a world

already drained of confidence, one doesnt have to be superstitious to think that talking about contingencyplans makes them more likely to be needed. But plans are being hatched nonetheless.

Shell, an Anglo-Dutch oil giant, has three scenarios for the euro zone: what it calls muddling through, adeepening of monetary union, or a break-up. It would surprise me if any well-run company were not

preparing itself for the worst scenarios, however remote those may be, says Leif Johansson, former chiefexecutive of Volvo, a Swedish manufacturer of commercial vehicles, and chairman of both Ericsson, aSwedish telecoms firm, and the European Roundtable of Industrialists. Services are springing up to help

companies prepare; in June FiREapps, an Arizona-based software provider, launched a new program to help

companies understand how their foreign-exchange exposure might change in real time in various differentreconfigurations of the euro zone.


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All in it together

When not planning for every contingency they can think of, Europes industrial bosses oscillate between fear,anger and disbelief. The bad news is occasionally interrupted by what feels like a reprieve, such as last weeksGerman Bundestag vote in favour of more powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), themain fund for bailing out troubled countries. But for the most part, as with this weeks troubles at Dexia, a

Franco-Belgian bank, another downgrading of Italys credit rating, and delays in funding for Greece, theunending flow of woe feeds businesspeoples fear. The fear then stokes the anger and disbelief. Company

bosses long to yell Youre fired! at any number of European politicians. They find it inconceivable thatGreecewhich with debts representing just 2% of euro-zone GDP is a tiny subsidiary, to their way ofthinkinghas been allowed to send the system spinning out of control.

For now, most companies still reckon a euro-zone break-up is unlikely. But for such a catastrophic event, even

a small probability is worrying. Whats more, the fear of calamity causes real problems even if that calamity isaverted. Many firms are considering whether to relocate investment either towards more financially solidcountries inside the EU, or out of Europe entirely. That is why European business will be reshaped by this

crisis even if the euro zone isnt.

The worries come at a time when Europes bigger companies are, by some measures, doing very well.Analysts expect Frances largest 40 listed companies to increase profits by 15% this year to a level nearlyequal to 2008s record high. German industry is still benefiting from a massive surge in engineering orders.The countrys engineering association is predicting a 14% jump in production by its members to 199 billion($266 billion) this year, just exceeding 2008s record high.

During the recession of 2008-09, European companies took harsh measures to cut costs and improve

efficiency. Despite a strong recovery in most firms profits, they have been reluctant to shoulder new fixedcosts and keen to maintain flexibility, which should help them weather another downturn. More than two-

thirds of 150 German firms recently surveyed by Roland Berger, a consultancy, said that the crisis of 2008-09brought benefits in that it helped make them more competitive.

Cash problems, credit problems

The bigger, cash-rich companies have another problem: where to keep their money while they are waiting for a

better investment climate. Many have been pouring deposits into German and French banks. For Siemens,

Germanys largest company by market capitalisation, even that may have seemed too risky. Last month,according to theFinancial Times, it withdrew 500m from Socit Gnrale, a French bank, and moved it tothe European Central Bank in search of a haven. French businesspeople were outraged that Siemens would do

such a thing, and, worse, talk about it afterwards. Also in September, Match.com, the American owner of

Meetic, a French online dating service, told its subsidiary to dump its French bank and switch to an Americanone. At the end of the month, LVMH, a luxury-goods group, sent most of its cash hoard to shareholders in

Bulgari, an Italian firm, to close its purchase of the company. Now I dont have to worry about whichEuropean bank our money is safest in, says Jean-Jacques Guiony, the groups chief financial officer.

Faced with slowing sales and a lack of access to credit, companies may have to cut costs furtherhard whenthey are already uncomfortably lean. Rodolfo de Benedetti, chief executive of the CIR Group, says that to

squeeze costs any more, his firm would have to summon up new reserves of creativity and re-engineer its

processes. Some of this could in turn require new investment. Companies may take more drastic steps this time

than they took in 2008, such as closing down entire divisions rather than trying to trim them incrementally.

The best strategy for a European company, it would seem, is to have as little exposure to Europe as possible.

Investors and banks are busy drawing up lists of the companies which have the highest proportion of sales to

countries outside Europe. Bad luck for France Tlcom, for instance, with 92% of its sales in Europe. But good


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news for a group like LVMH, with just 34% of its revenues earned in Europe thanks to Asian consumersseemingly endless appetite for its baubles.

The first priority for many firms is to reduce their exposure to the most troubled peripheral euro-zone

countries. Telefnica, a Spanish communications group, announced in September that it would consolidate itsSpanish business with its European and global headquarters in London. This is a natural progression after its

2006 purchase of O2, a mobile-phone operator based in Britain that is now the main focus of the companysEuropean business. But it is also an undeniably convenient moment to be pulling its centre of gravity away

from Spain. The acquisition of Hochtief, a big German rival, has provided the Spanish construction group ACS

with a similarly timely way to reduce its reliance on Spains construction sector.

The next goal for many European firms is to move even quicker into fast-growing emerging economies. Theeuro crisis, say business leaders, simply makes such diversification even more urgent than it was before. E.ON,

Germanys biggest utility, is selling billions of euros of European assets in order to shift its focus to emergingmarkets. Klckner & Company, a Mittelstand firm which trades metals globally, bought a Brazilian trading

company in May, and is preparing to open a China office.

Despite their interest in markets elsewhere, European businesses remain deeply committed to the EUs singlemarket at home, and desperate that the euro-zone crisis should not threaten it. Mutual recognition of nationalproduct rules means that a company anywhere in the EU can sell to 100m households, a market larger than

Americas. It is thanks to the single market, says Mr Johansson, that Volvo has been able to reach outsideEurope to achieve more than 30% of its sales in countries such as India and China; a restructured, competitive

European manufacturing base and a strong home market were the crucial foundation.

Being able to reach a large market has been a particular benefit for small and medium-sized companies.

Executives are grateful that they no longer have to deal with competitive currency devaluations in Europe. The

old hedging strategies they had to employ were complex and often did not work. They were also difficult forsmall to medium-sized businesses to use.


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Enthusiasm for the single market does not preclude ruthlessness about the euro zone. You need toknowwhos inside the boat, whos outside the boat and fix it, growls Carlos Ghosn, chief executive ofcarmakers Renault and Nissan. Other bosses have taken a similarly pragmatic line; eliminate uncertainty, they

say, even if that means tossing some countries out of the single currency area.

1. What seems to be the main problem from the 1st to the 4th paragraph of this report?

A. Euro zones inflationB. New currency will be introducedC. Europes telecoms trafficD. Euro zones potential break up

2. CEO of European Roundtable of Indutrialists assumesA. There are three scenarios for the euro zonesB. The monetary union will be deepenedC. The companies are practicing for their sakeD. Services are born to give advice to companies

3. Bosses in European companies are ready to

A. Be fired by the European politiciansB. Disbelieve in the bad news of European industriesC. Get furious with the countries leadersD. Support Greece

4. The possibility of a fall down of Euro zone isa. Impossible

b. Disastrousc. Likely to happend. None of the above

5. European investments are going to:A. Stay in the entire EuropeB. Shift their monetary flow to other continentsC. Reshape the European businessD. A & C

6. The main reason for keeping the operating cost low of many European companies is due toa. Bad weather preparation

b. Improvement of efficiencyc. Sharpening competitive edged. The financial crisis of 2008 -2009

7. The most appropriate management strategy for domestic companies of Europe now isA. Expand the market to AsiaB. Attract Asian consumersC. A & B are correctD. Restrict revenue in Europe


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Grammar Section:

Underline the alternative in each question which most closely matches the meaning of the underlinewords

1. The doctor is very busy right now, but he could probably fit you in later

A examine

B Look after

C Find time to see

D Try to cure

2. As it getting late, I decided to press on

A phone for help

B keep on going

C find a place to sleep

D Finish the ironing

3. I know she said she would lend you some money, but I wouldnt bank on it

A. Save the money

B. Depend on her to do it

C. Put the money in your bank account

D. Spend all the money all at once

4. To subscribe to something means:

A To write underground propaganda

B To give details of a persons appearance

C To write the name and dosage of a medication bought at a pharmacyD To receive and pay for a periodical

5. Natasha! I cant believe you did it. For a second out there you almost have

me.

A. Fool

B. Fooled

C. Believe

D. Believe in you

6. It is only a before anybody could reveal that

A. Matter of wisdom

B. While

C. Half hour

D. Matter of time

7. Anne had to pay for everything because, as usual, Robert .his wallet at home

A. Had left

B. Left

C. Was leaving

D. leaves


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8. Oh no Humphreys! We are late. By the time we get to the cinema, the film

A. will have started

B. has started

C. will start

D will have been starting

8. Frank.promoted soon. After all, his mother is a chief executive

A is bounding to get

B is bound to get

C is meaning to

D is meaning to do

9. The detective in charge of investigation asked

A. The two witnesses their names

B. Their names the two witnessesC. The two witnesses of their names

D. To the two witnesses their names

10.I really objectin rooms where people have to eat.

A people smoking

B to people smoke

C. People to smoke

D. to people smoking

11. Chirs told Liz that he had a good job with a big salary, but he..

A. hadnt

B Wasnt

C. Didnt

D. Hadnt got

12. The Smiths had to decide.to their daughters kidnappers demands or bring in the police

A If they agree

B If to agree

C Weather to agree

D Weather they agree


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Writing Section

To what extend do you agree or disagree with this idea?

If the Euro-zone was ever to disappear, the best way to save your firm (a company which 60% market

share for Europe and 40% of those for Asia) is to abandon Europe and focus on Asia

entrance exam module 2- spring 2012

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