MARSHALL PUBLIC SCHOOLS

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSHazel H. Reinhardt

January 21, 2014June 15, 2015

SUMMARYIn the past ten years, enrollment increased 1.2

percent The district’s school age population increased 1.8

percent while resident enrollment in the Marshall Public Schools increased 2.8 percent The Marshall Public Schools’ share increased but is

lower than some comparable communities due to the high percentage of students in nonpublic settings, but similar to state wide average

The Marshall Public Schools are a net gainer among the various public school options

SUMMARYAll four enrollment projections show enrollment

increasing. In ten years, the projected increase ranges from 18.6 percent to 23.3 percent Enrollment increases at all levels (elementary, middle and

high school) Caution: Projections assume that Grade 9 will be 42-43

percent larger than Grade 8 due to nonpublic students or other students entering high school If that rate is lower, the overall rate of growth will be lower

The district will need more single-family detached housing units to house the projected enrollment increase 2014—needs more units, not just single-family detached

TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORYK-12 TOTAL ENROLLMENT

2004-05 2,187

2005-06 2,190

2006-07 2,182

2007-08 2,224

2008-09 2,170

2009-10 2,136

2010-11 2,168

2011-12 2,206

2012-13 2,216

2013-14 2,214

2014-15 2,293Excludes Early Childhood and MECLA

COMPONENTS OF ENROLLMENT CHANGE

Fall to FallTotal Natural

Increase/Decrease

NetMigration# %

2004 to 2005 3 0.1 -68 71

2005 to 2006 -8 -0.3 -83 75

2006 to 2007 42 1.9 -86 128

2007 to 2008 -54 -2.4 -99 45

2008 to 2009 -34 -1.6 -48 14

2009 to 2010 32 1.5 -37 69

2010 to 2011 38 1.8 -18 56

2011 to 2012 10 0.5 7 3

2012 to 2013 -2 --- -27 25

2013 to 2014 79 3.6% 18 61

EDUCATION CHOICES2011-12

Minnesota Marshall

Nonpublic settings 10.0% 16.3%

Traditional schools

8.1% 14.9%

Home schools 1.9% 1.3%

Public Options

Open enrollment 6.4%

In 10.2%

Out 6.1%

Charter schools 4.1% ---

Capture Rate 78.8% 77.7%

TOTAL ENROLLMENTGrad

e2004-

052005-

062006-

072007-

082008-

092009-

102010-

112011-

122012-

132013-

14

K 134 166 150 176 144 164 168 186 186 184

1 144 131 151 161 161 131 165 162 181 175

2 148 132 130 154 167 154 133 159 155 182

3 125 148 133 138 147 157 152 131 163 155

4 153 127 145 146 140 142 153 163 129 160

5 134 151 129 146 145 133 142 150 157 145

6 123 129 145 137 138 149 132 140 146 151

7 141 129 131 145 141 134 147 139 147 148

8 175 143 128 135 153 143 141 149 132 160

9 219 222 215 204 188 224 203 202 203 194

10 236 228 223 209 215 193 233 213 201 199

11 221 251 240 230 219 207 195 233 205 186

12 234 233 262 243 212 205 204 179 211 175

Total

2,187

2,190

2,182

2,224

2,170

2,136

2,168

2,206

2,216

2,214

TOTAL ENROLLMENTGrad

e2005-

062006-

072007-

082008-

092009-

102010-

112011-

122012-

132013-

142014-15

K 166 150 176 144 164 168 186 186 184 193

1 131 151 161 161 131 165 162 181 175 177

2 132 130 154 167 154 133 159 155 182 170

3 148 133 138 147 157 152 131 163 155 176

4 127 145 146 140 142 153 163 129 160 160

5 151 129 146 145 133 142 150 157 145 155

6 129 145 137 138 149 132 140 146 151 139

7 129 131 145 141 134 147 139 147 148 160

8 143 128 135 153 143 141 149 132 160 154

9 222 215 204 188 224 203 202 203 194 211

10 228 223 209 215 193 233 213 201 199 206

11 251 240 230 219 207 195 233 205 186 208

12 233 262 243 212 205 204 179 211 175 184

Total

2,190

2,182

2,224

2,170

2,136

2,168

2,206

2,216

2,214

2,293

AVERAGE GRADE SIZE“Average” grade size

• 171/175 K-4• 151/152 5-8• 189/202 9-12

• The distribution of students by grade suggests enrollment will increase if kindergarten remains near its current level

• Kindergarten fluctuated in size but is significantly larger today than ten years ago

RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS

RESIDENT BIRTHS

Year Minnesota Lyon County

1998 65,207 353

1999 65,953 323

2000 67,451 350

2001 66,617 333

2002 68,037 332

2003 70,053 292

2004 70,617 318

2005 70,950 320

2006 73,515 382

2007 73,675 366

2008 72,382 376

2009 70,617 378

2010 68,407 362

2011 68,416 373

2012 68,783 347

2013 69,183 361

MACRO TRENDSAging population

• Less mobility• Decrease in school age population per household• Shift in size of adult age groups

Less demand for single-family detached housing

More births this decade and the next (Gen Y)• Another enrollment cycle (third)

Rising elementary enrollment in the first half of the cycle

Another large graduating class about 2040 (end of cycle)

PROJECTION METHODOLOGIESCohort survival method

Projections by gradeReflects recent births and current size of

gradesDifficult to calibrate survival rates to reflect

additional housing units, especially if a large number of units

KINDERGARTEN POOLBirth Years County Pool Percentage Kindergarten

1998; 1999 332 40.36% 2004-05

1999; 2000 341 48.68% 2005-06

2000; 2001 339 44.25% 2006-07

2001; 2002 332 53.01% 2007-08

2002; 2003 306 47.06% 2008-09

2003; 2004 309 53.07% 2009-10

2004; 2005 319 52.66% 2010-11

2005; 2006 362 51.38% 2011-12

2006; 2007 371 50.13% 2012-13

2007; 2008 373 49.33% 2013-14

2008; 2009 377 51.19% 2014-15

2009; 2010 368 2015-16

2010; 2011 369 2016-17

2011; 2012 355 2017-18

2012; 2013 357 2018-19

KINDERGARTEN CAPTURE RATESCohort survival method

Kindergarten Assumptions (based on 2013 data) Low is 50.3%, the average of the past three years High is 51.3%, the average of the past five years

Longer-term Lyon County births are higher than projected, so

adjusted upward by 5.5%

KINDERGARTEN PROJECTIONS

Year @50.3% @51.3%

2013-14 184 184

2014-15 190 193 193 193

2015-16 185 189

2016-17 186 189

2017-18 189 193

2018-19 191 194

2019-20 193 197

2020-21 195 199

2021-22 196 200

2022-23 196 200

2023-24 196 200

Total 1,917 1,954

NET MIGRATIONSCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR

Grade 04 to 05

05 to 06

06 to 07

07 to 08

08 to 09

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

K-4 -13 -18 35 -14 -35 -3 -3 -10 -13

5-8 1 -3 13 3 -5 4 4 -10 25

9-12 83 96 80 56 54 68 55 23 13

Total 71 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25

NET MIGRATIONSCHOOL YEAR TO SCHOOL YEAR

Grade 05 to 06

06 to 07

07 to 08

08 to 09

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

13 to 14

K-4 -18 35 -14 -35 -3 -3 -10 -13 -13

5-8 -3 13 3 -5 4 4 -10 25 4

9-12 96 80 56 54 68 55 23 13 70

Total 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25 61

NET MIGRATION BY GRADEGrade 04 to

0505 to

0606 to

0707 to

0808 to

0909 to

1010 to

1111 to

1212 to 13

K to 1 -3 -15 11 -15 -13 1 -6 -5 -111 to 2 -12 -1 3 6 -7 2 -6 -7 12 to 3 0 1 8 -7 -10 -2 -2 4 03 to 4 2 -3 13 2 -5 -4 11 -2 -34 to 5 -2 2 1 -1 -7 0 -3 -6 165 to 6 -5 -6 8 -8 4 -1 -2 -4 -66 to 7 6 2 0 4 -4 -2 7 7 27 to 8 2 -1 4 8 2 7 2 -7 138 to 9 47 72 76 53 71 60 61 54 629 to 10 9 1 -6 11 5 9 10 -1 -410 to

1115 12 7 10 -8 2 0 -8 -15

11 to 12

12 11 3 -18 -14 -3 -16 -22 -30

Total 71 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25

NET MIGRATION BY GRADEGrade 05 to

0606 to

0707 to

0808 to

0909 to

1010 to

1111 to

1212 to 13

13 to 14

K to 1 -15 11 -15 -13 1 -6 -5 -11 -71 to 2 -1 3 6 -7 2 -6 -7 1 -52 to 3 1 8 -7 -10 -2 -2 4 0 -63 to 4 -3 13 2 -5 -4 11 -2 -3 54 to 5 2 1 -1 -7 0 -3 -6 16 -55 to 6 -6 8 -8 4 -1 -2 -4 -6 -66 to 7 2 0 4 -4 -2 7 7 2 97 to 8 -1 4 8 2 7 2 -7 13 68 to 9 72 76 53 71 60 61 54 62 519 to 10 1 -6 11 5 9 10 -1 -4 1210 to

1112 7 10 -8 2 0 -8 -15 9

11 to 12

11 3 -18 -14 -3 -16 -22 -30 -2

Total 75 128 45 14 69 56 3 25 61

PROJECTED SURVIVAL RATESGrade Low (past 5 years) High (past 3 years)

K to 1 0.959 0.959

1 to 2 0.980 0.976

2 to 3 0.987 1.003

3 to 4 0.996 1.013

4 to 5 1.003 1.022

5 to 6 0.988 0.974

6 to 7 1.015 1.039

7 to 8 1.024 1.017

8 to 9 1.430 1.423

9 to 10 1.018 1.008

10 to 11 0.972 0.962

11 to 12 0.920 0.893

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSBased on 2014, enrollment projections based

on 2013 data are still reasonable. No reason to make new projections

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSYear

Low KLow Mig

High KLow Mig

Low KHigh Mig

High KHigh Mig

2013-14 2,214 2,214 2,214 2,214

2014-15 2,271 2,274 2,270 2,273

2015-16 2,324 2,331 2,324 2,331

2016-17 2,374 2,381 2,379 2,389

2017-18 2,418 2,431 2,432 2,446

2018-19 2,443 2,459 2,468 2,484

2019-20 2,478 2,498 2,515 2,536

2020-21 2,519 2,542 2,566 2,590

2021-22 2,566 2,593 2,624 2,651

2022-23 2,592 2,623 2,657 2,689

2023-24 2,625 2,661 2,693 2,730

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSK-4 5-8 9-12 Total

2013-14 856 604 754 2,214

2018-19

Low K/Low Mig

894 677 872 2,443

High K/Low Mig

910 677 872 2,459

Low K/High Mig

901 708 859 2,468

High K/High Mig

917 708 859 2,484

2023-24

Low K/Low Mig

927 699 999 2,625

High K/Low Mig

946 712 1,003 2,661

Low K/High Mig

934 733 1,026 2,693

High K/High Mig

953 746 1,030 2,730

HOUSING Maxfield Research, Inc. findings:

Demand to support 608 general occupancy housing units in City of Marshall between 2015 and 2025 Demand expected to favor rental housing, with 371

rental units and 237 for-sale housing units needed in City of Marshall by 2025 Based on recent sale transactions, housing demand

is highest for modestly-priced housing in the $100,000 to $150,000 range