engr 597 session 10 mobile and area sources of ghg and ...home.olemiss.edu/~cmchengs/global...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 1
Waheed Uddin PhD P E
Lecture 12March 23, 2009
7:00 to 8:15 PM, 211 Carrier
ENGR 597 Session 10Global Warming - Causes, Impacts and Solutions
Waheed Uddin, PhD, P.E.Professor and Director, CAIT
Department of Civil EngineeringThe University of Mississippi
[email protected]://www.olemiss.edu/projects/cait/Index.html
• Economic prosperity is tied to well-built and maintained infrastructure...to provide mobility and services
transportation, water supply, sewage and solid waste disposal, power generation and energy facilities, sports
l k h h i l
Mobile and Area Sources of GHG and Abatement Strategies
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complexes, amusement parks, theatres, hospitals, industrial facilities, communication towers, structures for space programs.
• Transportation infrastructure built to provide mobility, sustain quality of life, promote economic prosperity, and …?
• Protecting the environment (not until late 1960’s).
• Quantifying traffic and built environment impacts on mobility and traffic congestion
• Evaluation of traffic and built environment impacts on GHG
Objective / GoalsObjective: To assess impacts of mobile and area sources of air pollution and greenhouse gases and evaluate abatement strategies
Goals:
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• Evaluation of traffic and built environment impacts on GHG emissions and global warming
• Assessment of traffic and built environment impacts on air quality and public health
• Application of remote sensing and geospatial technologies and air pollution models for traffic visualization, environmental assessment
• Evaluation of abatement strategies
Transportation Impacts on Society
• Providing efficient public mobility and safety during disasters.
• Commuting to workplace, delivery of goods and services
• Accessing consumer services and other modes
• Creating create new businesses and increase jobs
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• Good transportation network is imperative for economic
prosperity and growth• Paved road density in km per million inhabitants is strongly
associated with the gross national product (GNP);above 6,000 km per million inhabitants for high-income economies in industrialized nations
Roads represent the largest public infrastructure investment.
• The GNP per capita reflects a country’s total market value of the goods and services produced annually divided by the population.
Sustainable and Efficient Transportation
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World Bank’s Research Report
Paved Road Density Comparison for Selected
Industrialized and Developing Countries
USACentral &Eastern
14,00016,00018,00020,000
illio
n
paved road density, km/million pop
Paved Road Density Comparison for Selected
Industrialized and Developing Countries
USACentral &Eastern
14,00016,00018,00020,000
illio
n
paved road density, km/million pop
Paved Road Density Comparison for Selected
Industrialized and Developing Countries
USACentral &Eastern
14,00016,00018,00020,000
illio
n
paved road density, km/million pop
Transportation Related Economic BenefitsUddin’s Research PapersUSAID Research
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TurkeyTajikistan
EU
ChinaBrazilIranIndia
JapanAfghanistan
Pakistan
Eastern Europe
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,000
USA EU
C & E Euro
peJa
pan
Tajikist
anTurk
ey
Pakist
an India
Iran
Brazil
China
Afghan
istan
Countries
Pave
d R
oad
Den
sity
, km
/mi
inha
bita
nts
66.5 m6.6 m290 m 1.3 b
175 m66.1 m1 b128 m 26.8 m145 mPop-
ulation
0
TurkeyTajikistan
EU
ChinaBrazilIranIndia
JapanAfghanistan
Pakistan
Eastern Europe
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,000
USA EU
C & E Euro
peJa
pan
Tajikist
anTurk
ey
Pakist
an India
Iran
Brazil
China
Afghan
istan
Countries
Pave
d R
oad
Den
sity
, km
/mi
inha
bita
nts
TurkeyTajikistan
EU
ChinaBrazilIranIndia
JapanAfghanistan
Pakistan
Eastern Europe
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,000
USA EU
C & E Euro
peJa
pan
Tajikist
anTurk
ey
Pakist
an India
Iran
Brazil
China
Afghan
istan
Countries
Pave
d R
oad
Den
sity
, km
/mi
inha
bita
nts
66.5 m6.6 m290 m 1.3 b
175 m66.1 m1 b128 m 26.8 m145 mPop-
ulation
066.5 m
6.6 m290 m 1.3 b175 m66.1 m1 b128 m 26.8 m
145 mPop-ulation
0
Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 2
Worldwide Vehicle Statistics Automobile Registration for Selected Countries, 1990 & 2002
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
ons (
thou
sand
s)
1990 2002
Source: ORNL24-p3-2 (Table 3.1)
Total = 222 million vehicles in 2002 in USASource: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Brunei: 0.2 million vehicles?
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
U.S.A. Japan Germany France U.K. Canada India China
Aut
omob
ile R
egist
ratio Pakistan: 5 million vehicles?
20 million
• Car ownership rates are highly correlated with per capita income.• In Europe and Singapore the rates are kept low through providing good public
transport and charging for the use of urban roads.
Transportation Infrastructure
88Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009CAIT Research on Traffic Flow, GIS, Air Quality, and greenhouse gases
Cars emit 2-3 times more CO than diesel trucks.Diesel trucks produce 10 times more NOx than cars.
Idling long haul trucks consume 20 million barrels of diesel and produce 10 million tons of carbon emissions.
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Aviation Related Pollution
1.5 million tons or 24 % of the world’s total carbon emission, 1990’s
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Memphis International Airport
Space Missions
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Fossil Fuels Impacts on Global Warming and Climate Change
Source: BBC.com Temperature rise 1.4 – 5.8 degree C by Year 2100
1948 2056
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Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 3
U.S. Petroleum and Liquids Supply, Consumption and Net Imports (million barrels per day)
U.S. Dependence on Imported Oil
Net Imports20 -
25 -
30 -History
s pe
r da
y
Projections
Consumption
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(Source: Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook 2007)
2030
p
0 -
5 -
10 -
15 -
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Mill
ion
barr
els
Year
Domestic Supply
Average fuel consumption per vehicle decreasing from 1970 to 2000: 13.25%Average mileage per gallon increasing from 1970 to 2000: 40.60%
Average fuel consumption per vehicle (gal.)
1970 19801970Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 830 gal.
Average mileage per gallon for all vehicles: 12.02 mi
1990 Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 677 gal.
Average mileage per gallon for all vehicles: 16.40 mi
2000Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 720 gal.
Average mileage per gallon for all vehicles: 16.09 mi
Average fuel consumption for all vehicles: 712 gal.Average mileage per gallon for all vehicles: 13.29 mi
Emission and Pollution Sources• A significant amount of air pollutants comes from transportation-related
mobile sources, including highway motor vehicles and aviation activities.
Miscellaneous 10.9 %
Transportation 49.2 %
Fuel Combustion
45.4 %
Miscellaneous 1.5 %
F l C b ti
Miscellaneous 4.5 %
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EPA Criteria Pollutant Emissions by Source in USA, 1997Source: National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1997
Transportation 39.9 %
Transportation 76.6 %
Fuel Combustion 5.5 %
Industrial Processes
6.9 %
CO
Industrial Processes
3.9 %NOx
Fuel Combustion 4.5 %
Industrial Processes
51.2 %
4.5 %
VOC
Percent Change of Transportation, Economic and Population Indicators, 1980 - 2005
20
40
60
80
100
120
Perc
ent C
hang
e
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0
Licenced
Driv
ers
Vehicl
e Mile
s Tra
veled
Moto
r Veh
icle R
egistr
ation
Real G
DP
Employmen
t
Populat
ion G
rowth
IndicatorsSource: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Statistical Abstract, 2007 and 2006. (Includes inflation adjustment. U.S. DOT, Highway Statistics, 2005.)
8.75.7
19.6 20.84.55.6
N th t
Percentage Change in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Populations by Region in U.S. 1990 to 2000
13 9
Metropolitan Nonmetropolitan
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MidwestWest
11.5
19.3
South
Northeast10.2
13.9
United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 200 and 1990 census.
U.S. Households by Size: 1970 to 2000(Percent Ditribution)
17 5 17.3 16.415.8
15.7 15.5 14.620.9
12.8 10.4 10.45 or more people
4 people
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17.1 22.7 24.6 25.5
28.931.4 32.3 33.1
17.3
17.5
1970 1980 1990 2000
3 people
2 people
1 person
Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 4
U.S. Mobile Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions, 1990-2004
U.S. GHG Emissions from Mobile Sources (Tg CO2 Eq.)
Gas 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Percent Change
(1990-2004)
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(1990-2004)CO2 1,476.2 1,565.3 1,782.3 1,768.1 1,813.1 1,815.5 1,870.4 +27%
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/pdf/chapter2.pdf,p. 16.
GHGs from transportation represent 33% of total U.S. GHG emissions.
1,600
1,800
2,000
HG
, Tot
al
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Mobile Sources (Tg CO2 Eq.)
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1,000
1,200
1,400
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year
(CO
2) G
H
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/pdf/chapter2.pdf, p. 16.
400
600
800
hous
e E
mis
sion
s, ot
al
Cars
Light Trucks
Other Highway
Aircraft
U.S. GHG Emissions from All Mobile Sources, by Vehicle Type (CO2)
29 % Increase in all mobile GHG emissions over 15 years (about 2% per year)
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0
200
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Veh
icle
Gre
enh T Aircraft
Marine
Locomotives
Mobile Air Conditioners andRefrigerated TransportationOther
Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2004, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2006, U.S. Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: Data
U.S. Transportation GHG Emission, 2004
Passenger CarsAircraft
Ships and Boats3%
Locomotives3%
Motorcycles,Pipelines and
Lubricants2%
Mobile AC andRefrigerated Transport
2%
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Heavy-Duty Vehicles19%
Passenger Cars34%
Light-Duty Trucks28%
9%
81% from On-Road Vehicles(source: TRR2017)
Built-up Area and Population for Selected MSAs based on NLCD 1992 and Census 2000
1.311.32
3.25
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
up a
rea
[km
2 ]
1 5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
tion
[Mill
ions
]
Built-up area (NLCD 1992)MSA Population (Census 2000)
Built-up area calculated within 32km radial zone based on NLCD 1992 (Taken from Brown, 2006)
(By Carla Brown, 2006)
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1.31
0.500.40 0.340.350.09
1.21
0.71
0
400
800
1,200
Bilt
-u
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Popu
lat
The EPA designations -- June 15, 2004. The 8-hour Ozonenonattainment areas (126) include 474 counties and are home to 159 million people.
Floor space by Building Type and Size for All Buildings in the United States, 2003 (Source EIA)
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Building footprint can be extracted from high-resolution satellite imagery more cost-effectively than traditional aerial photography.
(courtesy: Scott Dooley, CAIT PhD student)
Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 5
Electricity Consumption by Building Type and Size for All Buildings in the United States, 2003
(Source EIA)
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Large urban built-up areas demand more energy causing more carbon emissions and consequently more air quality degradation.
(courtesy: Scott Dooley, CAIT PhD student)
Heat-island Effect in Oxford, MississippiAs temperature rises so does the likelihood that smog will exceed
national standards of air quality; more power generation will produce more carbon emissions
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34.8 °C
W E
Weighted average surface temperature over 2-km wide strip along E-W cross section
• Landuse, Urbanization and Social Integration• Built-up Area Effects on Environment (air, water)• Built Environment Impacts on Physical Inactivity
T ffi F t liti d I j i
Sustainable transportation & development must consider all these factors.
Societal Impacts of Built-Environment
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• Traffic Fatalities and Injuries• Traffic Related Emissions and Air Pollution• Traffic Related Pavement Noise Impacts• Construction Process and Material Resources• Energy Demand and Diminishing Natural Resources
• CAIT air quality models implemented in Pisa, Italy
• Air pollution should be a concern in rural areas and many emerging urban areas.
Air Quality Management
August 3, 2004
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Abu Dhabi Dubai
Emissions from CNG vehicles?g p ( )
March 2007
1,303 1,300
410334
1,454
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
r of
CN
G V
ehic
les
n T
hous
ands
)
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334
142 125
0
200
400
Argentina Brazil Pakistan Italy India USA China
Country (in order of CNG use)
Num
be (in
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
PM? (Source: The Daily JANG, Karachi, Pakistan, March 31, 2007)
Vehicle miles traveled, 2002
Buses , 0.2%Other single-unit
trucks 2 7%
Combination trucks, 4.9% Automobiles
M otorcycles
T l f ti t k
Source: ORNL24-p3-1
USA: Vehicle fuel efficiency and emission control improving; Offset by more VMT
VMT: Number of vehicles in an area (AADT) x average travel distance (miles) x 3652.6 trillion per year
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trucks, 2.7%
Automobiles, 58.1%
Motorcycles, 0.3%
Two-axle, four-tire trucks, 33.8%
Two-axle , four-tire trucks
Other single-unit trucks
Combination trucks
Buses
Total vehicle miles travelled, 2002 (billion miles) = 2,855.8
Total = 222 million vehicles in 2002Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 6
Traffic Congestion and Gridlock
U.S. Average Travel Time Index for All Urbanized Areas, 1995-2004
1 3
1.351.37 1.38
y = 0.029x + 1.2471.35
1.40
avel
Tim
e x
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1.27
1.3
1.20
1.25
1.30
1995 1997 2000 2002 2004
Year
Ave
rage
Tra
Inde
Commuters spend 46 hours annually stuck in traffic and waste 5 billion gas annually.
Household Carbon Emissions
Natural Gas, 20%
The Automobile is the Largest Contributor to a Household’s Carbon Footprint
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Electricity, 25%
Automobile Use*, 55%
*Typical two car household
*30% Saving due to Public Transportation
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
f CO
2 Sa
ved
per
year
(saves 20 pound per day)
Public Transportation – one for the most significant Actions to reduce household carbon footprint
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
Taking transit to work
2nd Car
Replacing light bulbs
Replacing old refrigerator
Poun
ds o
f
Projected Growth in CO2 Emissions from Cars and Light Trucks
Assuming Status Quo Vehicle and Fuel Standards
Source: EIA 200700
%
130%140%150%160%170% VMT
CO2
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Source: EIA AEO 200
2005
= 1
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203070%80%90%
100%110%120%130%
MPG
Fuel GHG
1990 CO2
Projected Growth in CO2 Emissions from Cars and Light Trucks Assuming Stringent Nationwide Vehicle and Fuel Standards
Source: EIA 2007.
00%
130%140%150%160%170%
VMT
MPG
3535Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Dr. W. Uddin Copyright © 2009Source: EIA AEO 200
2005
= 1
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203070%80%90%
100%110%120%130% MPG
CO2
Fuel GHG
1990 CO2
GHG Abatement Strategies
• The transportation sector accounts for 28 percent of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States and 33 percent of the nation’s energy–related CO2 emissions (EIA 2006, p. xvi; EIA 2007a, p. 15).
• The United States in turn is responsible for 22 percent of CO2
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The United States, in turn, is responsible for 22 percent of CO2emissions worldwide and close to a quarter of worldwide GHG emissions (EIA 2007b, p. 93).
• It is hard to envision a “solution” to the global warming crisis that does not involve slowing the growth of transportation CO2emissions in the United States.
Dr. Waheed Uddin Copyright 2009 7
49%
60%
39%32%32%40%
50%
60%
70%
Change in UrbanizedLand
Growth of Population and Urbanized Land Area by Census Region between 1982 and 1997
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32%
7%7%
22%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
West
South
Northea
st
Midw
est
Change inMetropolitanPopulation
Source: Fulton et al. 2001
New York Today on the Sustainability Scale
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Per Capita
7 19.6 11.1 11.2
24.5
10
15
20
25
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5.9 7.1
0
5
10
London
New Y
ork C
ity
Toron
to
San D
iego
San Fra
ncisco
United Stat
es
Source: NYC Mayor’s Office of Long – Term Planning and Sustainability
Transport and Development—Challenges and Impacts
(Source World Bank)● CO2 Emission per ton km (grams CO2 per ton-km)
Train: 25 Barge: 35 Road: 130● Urban populations in developing countries are rapidly expanding
China: 300 million more urban dwellers by 2020India: 200 million more urban dwellers by 2020
I i l d b i
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CHINA
● Improve spatial management and urban transport options� Structure urban development with adequate transport policies and systems� Manage efficiently the urban/rural/regional interfaces� Develop and implement enhanced GIS-based transport infrastructure asset
management systems
• California’s Climate Action Team (2007) expects “smart land use and intelligent transportation system (ITS)” to make the second – largest contribution toward meeting the state’s ambitious GHG reduction goals.
California’s Abatement Strategies
Compact Development Sprawl
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Medium to high densities Low densities
Mixed uses Single uses (residential, commercial..)
Centered development Strip development
Interconnected streets Poorly connected streets
Pedestrian – and transit – friendly design Auto – oriented design
Source: Ewing 1997; Ewing, Pendall, and Chen 2002
Abatement Strategies to Protect Clean Air and Reduce GHG Emissions
• Conservation and compact urban growth… by all government levels and by public
• Efficiency in vehicles and traffic flow... by vehicle manufacturer,
Energy only 4 % from clean sources ─ not applicable for transportation; how to reduce transportation emissions?
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y yconsumers, transport agencies
• Better commercial truck fleet management.. by transporters• Public mass transit, HOV, car pooling, flexible work hours…..• Non-motorized transport…… by government levels and by public• Equity in road user charges for pollution and VMT• Clean fuel and energy sources (LPG, CNG, Hydrogen, Hydraulic,
Nuclear)…. By all
Win-Win (for society and environment)
Sustainability•• Enhancing health, Safety and Security.Enhancing health, Safety and Security.•• Conserving Energy and Enhancing the Environment.Conserving Energy and Enhancing the Environment.•• Creating Equitable and Livable Communities.Creating Equitable and Livable Communities.•• Promoting Economic Prosperity.Promoting Economic Prosperity.‘Sustainable Transport’ (World Bank 1996)
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‘Sustainable Transport’ (World Bank 1996)� EconomicEconomic�� FinancialFinancial�� EnvironmentalEnvironmental�� SocialSocial
} Sustainable Development
• Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.