engie from subsidies to ppa, evolution of res competitiveness · ⚫engie is positioning itself...
TRANSCRIPT
ENGIE
From subsidies to PPA, evolution of RES
competitiveness
22 November 2018
Energy France Renewable as part
of Engie Group
ENGIE : presentation of the Group
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154 950 EMPLOYEES, 97,200 OF
WHOM ARE DEVOTED TO ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
OPERATIONS IN 70
COUNTRIES AROUND
THE WORLD
€1.5 BILLION IN
INVESTMENTS FOR
NEW TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION AND
DEVELOPMENT
50% OF NEW POWER GENERATING
PROJECTS DEDICATED TO RENEWABLES
- 20% IS THE
GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS
REDUCTION TARGET
FOR 2020
2,8 MILLION OF POWER CUSTOMERS,
10 MILLION OF GAS CUSTOMERS,
ENERGY EFFICIENCY 20%, IT'S THE
AVERAGE ENERGY SAVING WITH
ENERGY PERFORMANCE CONTRACTS
230 URBAN HEATING AND COOLING
NETWORKS
In France : A 100% RES BU ~6,9 GWMid 2018
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2400IN AVERAGE
ALTISERVICE
Offshore wind ~ 2x 500 MW
PROCJETS
LANGA ~ 170 MW
ENGIE GREEN ~ 2 310 MW
CNR ~ 3 700 MW
SHEM ~ 783 MW
@100%
@100%
@100%
@49,97%
@47%
@100%
ENGIE
Offshore wind tender
DUNKERQUE
Floatting offshore wind
PILOT FARM AT LEUCATE
~ 1900 MW onshore wind
~ 1200 MW solar
~ 3800 MW hydro
~ 2 offshore wind projects
Dieppe le Tréport (296 MW) and
Yeu Noirmoutier (496 MW)
~ PPE goal : 10% of green gas in
final consumption in 2030
ENGIE’s position on French renewables market : Leader in Wind & Solar
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ENGIE leader in wind with 15 % market share
Fin 2017
Fin 2017
ENGIE leader in solar with 12 % market share
Solar and wind : leader and most competitive player in France
We are n°1 in wind and solar and we will increase our front runner position
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➢ More than 800 MW secured with the most
attractive PPA based on the 2016 Feed-in-
Tariff (82 €/MWh for 15 years) ;
➢ Very competitive business model:
➢Huge pipe and 1st in class model:➢2017-2018, #1 in solar tenders:
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100
200
300
400
500
600
ENGIE (y.c.Langa)
Urbasolar Quadran/Total Neoen Valorem EDF Photosol RES Valéco Générale duSolaire
Résultats cumulés des 4 premières sessions du quatrième AO de la CRE (2017-2018)
ENGIE large leader of solar tenders :
- Around 550 MW won when our first competitor
won less than 200 MW
Our offshore wind projects : 2 * 500 MW off the French coast
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7%
2 offshore wind projects of 500 MW each
French wind offshore awarded in May 2014
Two projects: Le Tréport (500 MW)
Îles d’Yeu et de Noirmoutier (500 MW)
Supplier: Siemens – 8 MW turbine,
Remuneration mechanism: feed in tariff for 20 years
Equity ownershipFinancial indicators
Total Capex: €2.0bn / project
Project Finance
Caisse des Dépôts
EDPR 47%43%
10%
Hydro at the heart of ENGIE’s strategy
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SHEM
➢ 800 MW
➢ Hydro storage + run of river
➢ Merchant + Regulated (30%)
CNR
➢ 3000 MW
➢ Run of river
➢ Merchant
⚫ ENGIE is positioning itself throughout the entire value chain of the biomethane industry:
from project development, in close collaboration with farmers, to the sale to end consumers.
— By 2030, ENGIE and its partners aim to mobilize a total of €2 billion to produce 5 TWh
per year of biomethane by that date.
⚫ The Group’s objective is to support the sector’s industrialization to reduce costs by about 30
to 40% by 2030 and thereby achieve cost parity with natural gas.
⚫ ENGIE is concentrating on standardizing, massifying and digitizing projects, and will be
partnering with suppliers to facilitate their expansion in the market. This industrialization will
enable the emergence of nationally-focused SMEs and will help increase the proportion of
French technologies in relevant biogas projects.
With an ambitious plan to accelerate on biomethane
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The result is that we are reinforcing our leadershipAccelerated ambitions which are part of ENGIE strategy to become a leader of the energy transition, especially on its domestic market
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Stable and ambitious growth
in wind onshore
from 1,5 GW in 2015 to
3 GW in 2021 means build
additional capacities of 1,5
GW in 6 years (average of 245
MW/y)
x2 by 2021 (vs 2015)
3 GW In 2021
Good perspectives :- Offshore wind:
Dunkerque, …
- Floating offshore:
2 projects (500 MW)
should be launched in the
next 2 years.
through tenders by 2021
Target to win
2 GW Offshore Wind2,2 GW In 2021
Strong acceleration
in solar
from 550 MW built in 2015 to
2,2 GW in 2021 means build
additional capacities of 1,6
GW in 6 years (average of
260 MW/y)
x3-4 by 2021 (vs 2015)
Renewable global market trends
Massive acceleration of renewable development around the world
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2,179 GW Global renewable generation
capacity at the end of 2017
8.3% Growth in renewable capacity during
2017
167 GW Increase in global renewable
generation capacity in 2017
64% Share of new renewable capacity
installed in Asia in 2017
85% Wind and solar share of new capacity in
2017
146 million Revised number of people
served by offgrid renewable power
Source : Irena
Wind solar and Gas are reshaping power sector
13Source : IEA
Their cost decrease and they now compete with conventional energy
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• The low end levelized cost of onshore wind-generated energy is $29/MWh
• Vs marginal cost of $36/MWh for coal
• The levelized cost of utility-scale solar is nearly identical to the illustrative marginal cost of coal, at
$36/MWh
Source : Lazard LCOE 2018
Fous on wind and solar price decrease
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• The mean levelized cost of energy of utility-scale PV technologies is down approximately 13% from
last year and the mean levelized cost of energy of onshore wind has declined almost 7%
Source : Lazard LCOE 2018
• Costs have been falling rapidly and are
expected to decline by a further 30% by
2030, leading to an expected growth in
installed capacity to 128 GW by 2030 and
521 GW by 2050
• Offshore wind capacity grew by 25%
between 2016 and 2017
• Compared to other renewable energy
technologies, offshore wind still makes up
a small part of global power generation.
Today, there is slightly less than 19 GW of
installed offshore capacity, two-thirds of
which is generated by G7 countries, but
the global growth trend is impressive
And a bright Future For Offshore Wind
16Source : Irena
Since 2017 : 0 subsidies bids in Germany and Denmark
Bioenergy are still a very important part of the RES and biogas grow fast in Europe
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108 958 MW installed in the world 36 738 MW installed in Europe
Source : Irena
Zoom on the french market
A dynamic French market : solar growth outlook + 2GW/yLarge growth ; Long term vision
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➢ Growth depending on French tenders: around 1GW/y for 3 years (except in 2016, less than 600 MW
due to the absence of tender in 2014)
➢ 2016-2018: ca. 1 GW/y by tender, in large utility scale (built maximum 2 years after)
➢ From 2018: strong acceleration in growth in line with PPE trajectory ->1.7 GW/y tender in large utility
scale (almost double)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
French solar park evolution (MW)
Outlook: 2GW/y
PPE2023 20,2 GW
PPE2023 18,2 GW
PPE2018 10,2 GW
UK : 12 GW
IT : 20 GW
DE : > 40 GW
A dynamic French market : wind growth outlook + 2GW/yLarge growth ; Long term vision
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➢ A sustained and regular growth (more than 1000 MW/y for 3 years and a record year in 2016 with
more than 1300 MW installed and 2017 with around 1700 MW)
➢ Acceleration in growth outlook within the PPE (Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Energie) trajectory :
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
French wind farm evolution (MW)
PPE2023 26 GW
PPE2018 15 GW
PPE2023 21,8 GW
Outlook ~ +2GW/y
UK : 20 GW
SP : 25 GW
DE : >60 GW
How do we decrease RES cost ?
Key challenges for the development of new RES capacities
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➢ Land availability
- Given the high ambitions of RES development, land availability has become one of the biggest challenge for
energy developers.
- The strategy consists in locking lands for future developments. For instance, ENGIE has partnererd with Suez in
order to develop solar plants on all its sites.
➢ Project competitiveness
- CAPEX : decreasing cost of wind turbine, solar panels,… ;
- OPEX : decreasing cost of operation and maintenance ;
- Energy yield : increasing production
Greenfield is ENGIE’s historical way to develop projects in France.
This favored for several reasons:
➢ Capture the whole value of development: With a strong local presence : close to our
stakeholders to find lands to develop project
➢ Master and optimize the design of projects: Given Engie’s integration of key expertise for
the various stages of the projects, it seems important to be able to optimize and adapt the
design of our projects, rather than buying projects for which the possibilities of adaptation
are weak
➢ Control the pace of development and costs: in PV and wind, it is particularly
important to make a relevant selection of origination of projects in order not to incur
costs for land that have little chance of succeeding. The potential of good lands is
limited and it is strategic for an ENR developer to secure the best lands at early stage in
order to control the development.
Our proven results :1. Origination
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Our proven results :2. Industrialisation through platforms
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An effective and optimized procurement platform :
➢ Wind: Master Supply agreements with major suppliers
• Solar: ENGIE Solar global procurement :
An effective O&M platform : to be agile and able to address all maintenance processes :
⚫ Full Scope : Long Term Service Agreement (historical Future Energy model)
— LTSA with Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM)
— LTSA with Independent Service Provider (ISP)
⚫ Hybrid maintenance :
— With several levels : from internalization of simple maintenance operations to strategic parts of
the machine internalisation (i.e. gearbox) :
⚫ Steered Maintenance :
— Need maintenance bases and experienced teams ;
— Need investor confidence and references for financing ;
— The only way to choose and develop an industrial operation strategy on life of the assets
Proven results :2. Industrialisation through platforms
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➢ An innovative digital platform : Darwin
➢ All ENGIE’s parks worldwide will be
connected in 2018 ;
— Estimated gain of 1% yield
Since 2010
WindSolarHydro
17 countries
4.7GW
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As a result : RES are close to be sold
directly to final customers
RE100: The world’s most influential companies, committed to 100% renewable power
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RE 100
RE100 is a collaborative, global
initiative uniting more than
100 influential
businesses committed to 100%
renewable electricity, working to
massively increase demand for - and
delivery of - renewable energy
155 RE100 companies have made a
commitment to go '100% renewable’
To achieve this goal, they must match
100% of the electricity used across
their global operations with
electricity produced from
renewable sources – biomass
(including biogas), geothermal, solar,
water and wind – either sourced from
the market or self-produced.
RES are more and more competitive compare to
traditional mix
Prix (
€/M
Wh)
EnR
Traditional
energy mix
➢ PPA will become the main economic model for the development of renewable energies in
France (decline in cost of technologies, rise of electricity market prices, the end of
subsidies, the need for industrialists to commit for the energy transition with physical assets
and not certificates)
PPA are seen as one of the main drivers of ENR development by 2030Create value with the diversity of technologies
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… and allow for less risky and more cost-effective
tender effects in the long run
Prix (
€/M
Wh)
EnR
Traditional
energy mix
Client price
How business models evolves : from subsidies to direct sell
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subsidies
FIT, FIP, CFD
Renewable Energy
Certificates
PPA
« as produced »PPA « baseload »
29Wind Solar HydroConsommation client Production ENR de type:
Clientconsumption
vs RES
production
Today
StorageMix marché
Green certificates + market to allow 100%
Green energy consumptionsou + +et/
ou
➢ In order to accelerate is development, ENGIE target large partnerships with land owners
to secure large areas through a national approach
Next step : multi-energy platefomsCreate value with the multiplicity of technologies
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➢ Solar parks become energy
platforms: transforming a solar park
into a multi-energy platform serving
the regions
Thank you for your attention
Questions ?
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