energy yield ii - univie.ac.at · 22.06.2018: energy yield ii reminder: energy-yield 𝑌 = 𝑡 =...
TRANSCRIPT
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Content
• Data quality comparison of tools
measurement techniques
measurement errors
calibration chain
• Costs Scaling effects
Origin of cost reduction
Pay-back time of costs or energy
Reduction of CO2
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
0. Energy Yield - Reminder
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Reminder: Energy-Yield
[ kWh/kWp a ] = [ h/a ] „full load hours“ 𝑌𝐹 = 𝑡𝑣𝑜 =𝐸𝑎
𝑃𝐺0
Ea = annual energy yield (EAC fed into the grid)
PG0 = PV nominal generator power
Performance Ratio
PR = 𝑌𝐹
𝑌𝑅
YR = annual radiation yield
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Reminder: Composition of the irradiance Influence on results of models
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
1. Data quality
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Energy Forecast: problem or solved? Perovo – Ukraine – Activ-Solar
Avancis
Modeling uncertainty in forecast
Facility behavior Module behavior
Target: energy yield 1% deviation
prediction time 1h
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Tools under comparison
Modeling of
Test facility
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Tools under comparison 2
2010
2018 Beste Vorhersage aus über 24.300 Simulationsvarianten (270 Modellketten
an 30 Standorten) von PV-Sol-Expert:
[-5%, +13%]
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Environmental parameters - measurement
Ta … Ambient temperature
Tm … Module temperature
E … Irradiance
El … Spectrally resolved E
RH … Relative humidity
p … Air pressure
vw … Wind speed
ISC … Short circuit current
Thermo couple
PT100 2L/4L
Pyranometer
Star pyranometer
Diode pyranometer
PV-Module (stabilized)
Pyrheliometer
Spectrometer
Filtered pyranometer
Filtered solar cell
Semi conductor
Pressure sensor
(e.g.piezzo)
Heated wire
Ultra sonic anemometer
Bowl-anemometer
Shunt restistance
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Measurement and prediction: accuracy
Irradiance 3%-5%
annual calibration ~ 2%
Temperature technically +/- 0.1 K, real +/- 1-2 K
Sun simulation class A: spectral 25%, Temp.: 2%, time: 2%
ageing sensors age at a rate of (a-Si): 0.5%-1.5% / a
power induced degradation (PID) / seasonal effects
Environmental impact spectral influence 0.1%-10% (mean 1%)
wind cooling (convection) (1%-30%)
Module power accredited Lab: 3%
industry 3%-10%
modeling annual yield prediction: 5%-15%
weather data: 1%-5%
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Calibration chain
Primary
standard
15 Absolute Cavity Radiometers (World Radiation Center Davos)
(0.3%)
Secundary
standard
Pyrheliometer ( Davos, autumn,
3 weeks) Reference lamp (Planckian emitter) (1%)
Secundary
reference 1
Secundary
reference 1
Secundary
reference...
Pyranometer, Reference cell Labs, Industry, facility) (2%-5%)
Primary reference Pyranometer, Reference cell Labs (1.5%-2.5%)
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Measurement
Diiffraction grating Spektrometer
2D-Ultrasonic anemometer Diode pyranometer
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
2. Costs
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Example: System efficiency
Can this work???
© V. Quaschnig
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Example: System efficiency
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Example: Cost reduction
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
2012
Costs decrease with increasing cumulative production: learning curve:
10 * Produktion ½ Kosten
K … costs K0 … initial costs L … learning factor p … production P0 … initial prod.
𝐾 𝑝 = 𝐾0 ∙ 𝐿𝑙𝑛2
𝑝𝑝0
Learning curve of PV
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Number of doublings (installed capacity)
Co
st
ind
ex
($
/kW
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Nuclear Reactors France 1977-2000
PVs Japan
1976-1995
0.1%
0.1%
50% interval
90% interval
mean learning rate
(115 case studies):
-20% per doubling
© Nakicenovic (2006)
Learning curve of PV
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Nuclear power: complex, final risk of W.C.S.
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Fossiles mainly fuelling Europe: e.g. Lignite Coal in GER
© Astrid Schneider, Solar architect
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Origin of cost reduction
Electricity costs decrease
Production costs decrease
Electricity costs decrease
Efficiency increases at the same production costs
&
Electricity costs decrease
Life time increases at same production costs
&
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
4
4: Cr Si: New Generation
5: TF: New Gen. & Nano-Physics, QT 5
Origin of cost reduction
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Costs of electricity
𝐶 =𝐼 ∙ 𝑎
𝑌𝐹+ 𝐶𝑣𝑎𝑟
C … costs per kWh I … investment a … annuity YF … full load hours [h] = [kWh/kWp] Cvar … running costs kWh [€/kWh] (~ 0.7%-1% I)
Costs of electricity [€ / kWhelektr.]
𝑎 𝑧, 𝑁 =1 + 𝑧 𝑁 ∙ 𝑧
1 + 𝑧 𝑁 − 1
z … interest rate (2%-6%) N … run time 20a-30a)
annuity
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Pay back time
Cost pay back time
Energy pay back time
𝑇𝑘[𝑎] = 𝐼[€]
𝑌𝐹,𝑓𝑖𝑛. €/𝑎
𝑇𝐸[𝑎] = 𝐸𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛[𝑘𝑊ℎ]
𝑌𝐹 𝑘𝑊ℎ/𝑎
YF,fin … financial yield reduced by running costs
Eproduction … total energy for production
© solaranlagen.org
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Pay back time
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
CO2 reduction
• Conventional mix: 0.65 kg CO2 / kWh
• Bio mass: per t Bio mass and year: 1,5 t CO2 bound 1,1 t O2 produced
• Photovoltaics per kWp installed capacity and year
1 MWh energy produced (Middel Europe) 0.65 t CO2 avoided
4-10 € CO2-certificates saved
© Ch. Krumphuber LK, ÖO 2009
© Photovoltaik-web.de
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Cost reductiion vs. Electricity costs from the grid
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Current facility costs in Austria (planning and installation)
5 kWp
10 kWp
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Current facility costs
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Example Austria:
Residential facility:
Investment 1800 EUR / kWp
Yield: 950 kWh / kWp a
Self consumption 40% (value ~0.2 €)
Fed to grid: 60 % (value ~0.08 €)
Pay off time: 14 a
Communal facility:
investment 1500 EUR / kWp
yield: 950 kWh / kWp a
Life time: 25 a
Running costs: 0.75% / a
ageing: 20% nach 25 a
Costs of electricity: 8 €ct / kWh
Nuclear power, linear calculated:
Invest: 8000 EUR / kWp
yield: 7000 kWh / kWp a
Run time: 30 a
Running costs: 0.5% / a
Deposit and retreat: 1 G€
Costs of electricity : 4.8 €ct
(real costs approx. 11 €ct)
Residential facility and battery:
battery 1200 EUR/ kWh *0,5 kWh/kWp
investment PV: 1500 EUR / kWp
Inves system: 2100 EUR / kWp
yield: 950 kWh / kWp a
Self consumation 70% (value ~0.2 €)
Fed to grid: 30 % (value ~0.08 €)
16.6 ct / kWh yield 156 EUR /a
Pay off time: 13,4 a
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Principles for the optimization of self-consumption
Self
consumption
E-Mobility
Power 2 heat
Load Management
Modelling of generator
profile
Peak shifting
Power 2 gas
Storage
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Load
• Shift loads in time of high irradiance
• Time independent processes
• Management control system
Yield
• Shift PV-yield to high demand
• Orientation / Set up angle /
• Tracking system
Storage
• Thermal storage
• Electrical storage
• E-Mobility
Principles for the optimization of self-construction
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
VISIT AIT-Laboratory PVS 29.6.2018
Arrival by: Subway U6 (floridsdorf) + S-Bahn (Siemensstrasse) Subway U1 (Kagraner Platz) + 31A (Heinrich von Buol Gasse)
22.06.2018: Energy Yield II
Thank you for your attention!