energy transition or electricity...
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Transition or Electricity Transition?
World Energy Council FranceParis, 22nd May 2017
innogy SE · Volker Stehmann, Corporate Affairs, Head Markets & Renewables
Agenda
1Innogy – a majorEuropean energy utility
2Electricity transition or energytransition?
3Outlook
RWE forged innogy to become a blueprint utility for a decarbonised, decentralized & digitalized energy system
3
We are innogy!
Our strategic pillarsThree „D“s that will transform
the energy world
Decarbonisation
Decentralisation
Digitalisation
innogy is a major European utility company
4
208
230
374
400
414
497
968
1 189
1 225
1 731
Colruyt
Blackstone
SSE
UniCredit
Stadtwerke München
China Guodian Corp
Vattenfall
innogy
E.ON
DONG
356 000346 000
138 00082 000
33 000 32 000 27 000 19 70018 800
Top 10 off-shore wind operators (MW)
Top German distribution grid operators (km)Top 10 renewable capacity operators (MW)
Distributed power in Germany (TWh)
143
100
55
innogy E.ON EnBW
8 227
4 703 4 463 4 088 3.674 3.654 3 638 2 967 2 503 2 482
Source: Bloomberg new energy finance as of 02/2016, Grid operators according to StromNEV; company data 1 accounting view2innogy. Based on grid operated. Figure as per 2015
innogy SE · December 2016
1 2
901
1,160 226
197
87
459
44
19
34
We are a global leader in wind energy and operate more than 3,100 MW of renewable capacity
Renewables
1 As of December 31, 2015; pro-rata view, excluding Zephyr portfolio. innogy has further renewable capacity of 0.3 GW in consolidated participations related to the Grid and Infrastructure segment | 2 By capacitySource: Bloomberg New energy finance; asset owner database, as of March 2016, http://www.innogy-renewableslive.com/#/dashboard
Installed capacity (MW)1
5innogy SE · December 2016
#3worldwide
offshorewind2
4,400 MW
project pipeline1
3,100 MW
in operation1
+ ca.500 MWin 20161
We provide access to energy through the No.1 distribution grid1 in Central Europe
Grid and Infrastructure
Note: All figures as per 2015. Rounding differences may occur 1 Based on distributed volumeSource: Moody’s
GasElectricity
6
GER PL
HU
SKCZ
16.5m peopleconnected
309 TWhsupplied
1.5xdistance to moon(574,000 km)
innogy SE · December 2016
Our pan-European customer base is being supplied with electricity and gas
7
Retail
Customer Base
Customers (000) 1
GER 60
NL/BE 10
East 10
UK 20
Total 110
Note: B2B including industrial customers as well as resellers, B2C including residential and commercial customers. Depending on national regulations and market specifics, the individual attribution of customers to our B2C or B2B business may vary to a certain extent across our markets. 1 Customer numbers are rounded to the nearest 10,000 customers. Numbers may not add up due to rounding differences
Customers (000)1
GER 8,060
NL/BE 4,700
East 5,400
UK 4,980
Total 23,130
# contracts in m as of 2015
6.8
1.3
2.5
2.2
3.0 2.0
0.9
0.5 0.1
UK
GERNL/BE
2.1
0.31.3
PL
CZ
SK
ROSL0.1
CR
HU
Electricity Gas
For companies/B2B business
For home/B2C business
innogy SE · December 2016
We offer future oriented energy+ products and services to our customers
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Retail
Connected homeE-mobility1
• Overall >5,400 charging points in >20 countries
• 470,000 charging processes
• 4.5 GWh electricity charged
• More than 130 (municipal) utilityand 50 B2B partners in Germany
1 As of December 31, 2016 | 2 SmartHome devices and units are also sold to end customers through regional companies, up to 2015.Total number also includes devices and units sold to those regional companies |3 As of 30 June 2016
• SmartHome: 800,000 units sold2
• Roll-out to further countries in preparation
• Cooperation with Nest: >30,000 units soldin UK and NL3
Internet based suppliers Energy services
• Energy audits and savings solutions
• Contracting, maintenance and repair services
• Energy management/IT solution for cus-tomers with decentral energy generation
• eprimo leading in Germany with ~1.3 mn customers in 2016, trademark of the year
• Energiedirect leading in the Netherlands with ~0.7 mncustomers in 2016
innogy SE · December 2016
London
Silicon Valley
Berlin
Tel Aviv
We are at the pulse of the global hot spots of the energy revolution with our innovation hubs
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Innovation
Source: innogy
innogy SE · December 2016
Moving made simpleInnovating and reducing the costsof moving for everyone
Internet of Things (IoT)Making the development for IoT powerful but simple
Prosumer everywhereSwitching customers to independent and green, locally produced energy
The future is lightCreating flexible solutions and push the limits of organic electronics for customers’ benefit
Put data to workIdentifying “energy vampires”in customer’s homes
Our start-ups provide solutions to meet the needs of customers and the rapidly changing energy industry
innogy SE · December 2016 10
Innovation
Source: innogy venture capital portfolio, examples only
Agenda
1Innogy – a majorEuropean energy utility
2Electricity transition or energytransition?
3Outlook
Steady growth of RES. System integration remains a challenge.
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3663
105
152
196
0
50
100
150
200
250
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
200
6
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Renewable Electricity in Germany (TWh)
• The German Renewable Support scheme “EEG” was very successful to boost large volumes of renewable energy into the system
• Largest share from intermittent sources Wind and PV
• More than 32% renewable share of gross electricity consumption in 2015
• However, high “technological pioneering cost”
32.6%
CAGR = 12% 25.2%
17.0%
10.2%
4.3%
x.x% Renewable share of gross electricity consumption
• Rapid growth of intermittent renewables was not adequately backed by parallel grid expansion (e. g. “North-South-Links”)
• Increasing need to counterbalance grid congestions with curtailment of renewables and re-dispatch of conventional plants
• EEG 2017 “on the break”: growth restrictions in “grid expansion areas”, offshore North Sea
innogy‘s „Energy Policy Compass“
Sector coupling
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Enablers & framework
Overarching policy target
Technologies & Fuels
Combined Heatand Power
Renewables
Gas in downstream
Energy efficiency
Digitalisation
European integration
Decentralisation
Role of DSO
Decarbonisation
Key lever
RenewablesGridRetail
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Transport Industry Households services,trade and
commercial
TWh End Energy in economic sectors
electricity non electric
14Source: own illustration, based on FFE 2016.
Explanation
• Overall share of electricity in end user energy demand is relatively low (~20%)
• Larger share is driven by heating in industry and household sectors and by mechanical energy demand in transport and industry.
• According to FFE it is possible to substitute about 2/3 of non electric energy with electricity.
There is potential for more electricity…
Classical demand (incl. 25% efficiency gains) [420 TWh]
power to heat [220 TWh]
emobility [110 TWh]
Source: RWE electrification projec, based on Fraunhofer/IWES.
• Furthermore, renewable electricity is substituting fossil fuels in transport and heat sectors.
• Whilst the traditional electricity demand is reduced, new demand will outgrow the reduction, so that we see a net growth in electricity. Gas and other fuels will probably shrink on a net demand level.
• A precondition for this to happen is a level playing field of taxes and levies on the various energy carriers.
Classical demand [511 TWh]
power to heat [17 TWh]
20142050
15
…in particular in heating and transport…
• Overall demand for heat, transport and electric energy has to shrink significantly to meet energy transition targets.
…however this does not necessarily mean „all electric“. Decarbonisation also needs „green fuels“.
Figures in Mio. t CO2-equivalent p.a., based on UBA
CO2-emissions 2050Allowed volume:(95%-target)63 Mio. t
CO2-emissions 2050
Unavoidable(agriculture, steel, chalk, cement, …)ca. 60 Mio. t
“long distancetransport”(aviation, ships, road transport)ca. 150 Mio. t
Remainingemissions(cars, industry, chemical, domestic heating…) ca. 750 Mio. t
Difficult to electrify
Potentially entirely avoidable
Agenda
1Innogy – a majorEuropean energy utility
2Electricity transition or energytransition?
3Outlook
The energy world is moving quickly.
Distributed generation
storage
E-mobility
Smart grids
Renewable generationwith backupInnovative
electrical heating
Green fuels
Sector coupling Electricy Generation
We are committed to
creating a sustainable energy system for new
generations to live in a world worth having
We are a fast-moving company,
committed to radical innovation and playing to win in an ever changing
game of business and market development
We are committed to
inspiring people,
offering solutions beyond their current needs and
expectations and making their lives easier
Our mission is to create an energy company that exceeds the expectations of our customers
19innogy SE · December 2016