energy trade with india

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Prospects of Energy Trade With India


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PROSPECTS IN PRESENT SITUATION

The surplus power available in Pakistan started

decreasing and nearly balanced in FY 2004.

From 2005, the deficit scenario started building up,which became severein FY 2008-09.

The situation is still continuing because despite best

efforts, a wide gap between supply and demand isexisting. The year-wise power balance scenario is

depicted in next slide.

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DEMAND & SUPPLY POSITION (2001 2010)PEPCO (Including Export to KESC)

(All Figures in MW)

Year Computed PeakDemand CorrespondingSupply Surplus/ Shortfall

2000-01 10459 10894 435

2001-02 11044 10958 -86

2002-03 11598 11834 236

2003-04 12595 12792 197

2004-05 13847 12600 -1247

2005-06 15838 13292 -2546

2006-07 17398 12442 -4956

2007-08 17852 13637 -42152008-09 18583 13413 -5170

2009-10 18521 13163 -5358

2010-11 18930 14468 -4462

2011-12 20058 15062 -4996


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Summary of Power Balances (MW)

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PEPCO System

Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2012-13 -3458 -3331 -4214 -3683 -891 -1767 -2771 -1791 -3120 -4015 -3777 -4304

2013-14 -4059 -3973 -4854 -3970 -1078 -903 -1746 -810 -2347 -3289 -3081 -3607

2014-15 -3202 -3219 -4134 -3400 -375 -1058 -1930 -903 -2439 -3394 -3249 -3718

2015-16 -3209 -3392 -4444 -3592 -440 -651 -1458 -544 -2185 -3183 -3078 -3701

2016-17 -3734 -3936 -3397 -2093 1207 897 228 1073 -709 -1394 -698 -1517

2017-18 -1478 -1729 -2944 -1912 847 1299 -92 858 -892 -1535 -613 -1367

2018-19 -1609 -2261 -3818 -2844 13 2377 1002 1901 95 -301 1274 746

2019-20 1337 386 -1703 -949 1838 2554 1123 2185 377 13 2187 1410

Based on Generation Data as of 30-06-2012


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Summary of Power Balances (MW)

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YearSurplus/Deficit

MW

Surplus/Deficit

MW

2012-13 -891(min deficit) -4304(max deficit)

2013-14 -810(min deficit) -4854(max deficit)2014-15 -375(min deficit) -4134(max deficit)

2015-16 -440(min deficit) -4444(max deficit)

2016-17 1207 (max surplus) -3936(max deficit)





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Period (2010-11) Energy (MU) Peak (MW)

Requirement 861,591 122,287

Availability 788,355 110,256

Shortage 73,236 12,031

(%) 8.5% 9.8%

Actual Power Supply Position 2010-11

All India


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Period (2011-12) Energy (MU) Peak (MW)

Requirement 933,741 136,193

Availability 837,374 118,676

Shortage 96,367 17,517

(%) 10.3% 12.9%

Expected Power Supply Position 2011-12

All India


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FUTURE PROSPECTS OF ELECTRICITYTRADE

Pakistan needs power in future also.

The economic viability of import of power from

India depends upon its overall cost of energy.

India is also facing power deficit. The sustainability

of power supply needs to be ascertained.

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WAY FORWARD

Prefeasibility study is required to;

Assess the Surplus and Deficit power of the two countries and

determine of quantum of energy that can be supplied.

Identify possible locations for establishing interconnectionsbetween Pakistan and India.

Examine:

Technically possible solutions for the grid connectivity of both

countries (like, voltage level, AC or DC etc.)

The term of contract for import of power.

The security and stability of power supply issues.

An insight into possible tariff structure and its cost.

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Assessment of potential for electricity trade keeping in view

of current and future demand.

Examine the power market structure, codes of electricity

supply and existing legal framework.

Developing methodology for implementation of transmission

infrastructure.

Explore technically and economically feasible

interconnection options.

Preliminary cost estimation and interconnection diagrams

for feasible options.

Contd..

Scope of Work

Prefeasibility Study By World Bank

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Assess the economic and commercial viability of the

interconnection options identified.

Identification of other key constraints such as ROW that may limit

the practical implementation.

Recommend 2-3 interconnection options to GoP.

Identification of strategic issues and important risks of the

recommended interconnections and bilateral trade through those.

Assess and analyze the potential of private sector participation in

energy trade.

Recommend further studies and actions to be taken by GoP to

further develop the recommended interconnection option.

Scope of Work

Prefeasibility Study By World Bank

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TECHNICAL DETAILS

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The NTDC Power Transmission System

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INTERCONNECTION ISSUES

The NTDC Transmission System is longitudinal whichis Running parallel to Indian border from north to

south.

Interconnections are possible at various points.

The interconnection voltage level depends upon

the volume of energy to be transmitted.

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India , Pakistan AC TransmissionVoltages

The transmission voltages in Pakistan are- 132 kV

- 220 kV

- 500 kV The Indian system voltages are

- 132 kV

- 220 kV- 400 kV

- 765 kV

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Probable Interconnection Points

Batapur Lahore at 132 kV

Ghazi Road Lahore at 132 kV

Ghazi Road Lahore at 220 kV Sarfraz Nagar at 132 kV

Sarfraz Nagar at 220 kV

Kasur at 132 kV

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Possible Interconnection Option For

200-500 MW

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Interconnection Problemswith AC System

Both interconnected systems need to beoperated at same frequency. If the system with

shortage of power is operating at the lower

frequency, the other system may refuse to

synchronize with that system.

Phase-shifting transformers are required to

control the quantum of power flowing from one

system to the other. Short circuit powers of the two systems get

added which may be beyond the capacity of

some of the switchyard equipment on both or

either side. 18


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Interconnection Problemswith AC System

The disturbance/fault on one system may disturb

the other system.

The above mentioned problems can be

overcome by isolating a small portion of thereceiving system and connecting it up-to the

supply system. In this case the power flow will be

fluctuating according to the demand of the

isolated portion of receiving system.

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Approximate Costs

1. Back to Back ConverterStation Cost = 250 MUS$

2. 500 kV HVAC S/C = 0.30 MUS$/km

(Drake Conductor)3. 500 kV HVAC D/C = 0.6 MUS$/km

(Drake Conductor)

4. 220 kV HVAC D/C = 0.22 MUS$/km(Twin Bundle Rail Conductor)

5. 132 kV AC D/C = 0.10 MUS$/km

(Rail Conductor) 20


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Due to problems associated with HVAC

system, India has required interconnection

through HVDC line.

The voltage level for power upto 500 MW can

be 220 kV. For higher power levels it should be

400 kV or higher.

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Recommended Interconnection Option


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energy trade with india

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