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Cape Times… Wednesday, July 29, 2009

THE SUSTAINABILITY SERIES: ENERGY SECURITY

Researched, written and co-ordinated by Carole Knight ● 021 855 2982 ● www.caroleknight.com

2009 is an absolutely critical year in terms of the world-wide effort to address climate change. With some of thewarmest years in the instrumental record having occurredthis decade, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmos-phere having exceeded by far the natural range of the past650 000 years and the Kyoto Protocol being set to expirein 2012, a global action plan for 2009 began with themobilisation of more than a billion people in more than athousand cities who turned off their lights during EarthHour on March 28, in a bold collective call to actionintended to bring attention to the urgent need to reducegreenhouse gas emissions for the short- and long-termbenefit of the planet.

The action plan continued with the G8 Summit inL’Aquila, Italy, earlier this month when “major advances”were made by countries, such as China and India, and achange of climate policy was indicated by the new USadministration. It will round off with the Copenhagen Con-ference in Denmark in December, when parties willattempt to gain consensus on how to shape an effectiveinternational response to our changing climate.

Energy exchange and thermostatic equilibrium

Climate and weather patterns are powered in a con-tinuous, interactive cycle of energy exchange with theatmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphereimpacting on each other in a synchronicity of processesthat have maintained a thermostatic equilibrium of 15°Cfor the past 10 000 years, or since the last Ice Age ended.

At the heart of Earth’s thermostat lies carbon dioxide,a colourless and odourless gas that plays a critical role inmaintaining the balance that is necessary for life to existon the planet.

As a key component of photosynthesis it occurs natu-rally in the air, however, it is also a particularly long-livedanthropogenically produced greenhouse gas associatedwith global warming. By far the biggest contributortowards an increased level of carbon dioxide in the atmos-phere is the burning of fossil fuels which power humanprogress with its ever-upwardly spiralling dependence onenergy consumption.

Over the past 10 millennia or 10 000 years, the planethas warmed by a global mean average of 5°C, which isthe fastest rise recorded in recent Earth history.

By 2030, when the world’s demand for electricity hasclimbed to around 8 000 GW and carbon emissions haverisen by an estimated 52%, the global climate could havewarmed up to such a degree that a rapid increase in tem-perature, occurring in tens of years and not thousands ofyears, as has predominantly happened before, could sendthe world’s climate into a state of dramatic disequilibriumand, with it, shock waves throughout every natural andhuman system on the planet.

Sooner than expectedIn their 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on global

warming, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) predicted a possible rise in globalmean temperature of between 1.1°C and 6.4°C in low andhigh scenarios by the end of this century, depending onemissions.

At this rate of warming the IPCC went on record stat-ing that they believed that changes in global rainfall patterns could be expected, with an intensification of trop-ical cyclones and other extreme weather events. They projected that sea ice would shrink in both the Arctic andAntarctic, with Arctic late-summer sea ice disappearingalmost entirely by the latter part of this century. With thecontinued melting of ice caps, glaciers and sea ice, sea lev-els were expected to rise, resulting in major changes tocoastlines and river deltas and the inundation of low-lyingareas.

The AR4 projected an increase in areas affected bydrought, with freshwater becoming scarcer, compromis-ing food security for millions of the world’s people. It projected poleward shifts in the ranges of plant and animal species, and even the extinction of a significant per-

centage of the Earth’s species. It also predicted changesin ocean temperature, acidity, salinity and oxygen levels,which were expected to impact on coral reefs, algae,plankton and fish. These changes were projected foraround 2020 or 2030; however scientists are finding thatsome changes, such as Arctic melt and shifts in the loca-tions of different species, are already occurring.

At the very least, at the lower end of the temperatureincrease spectrum, there will be far-reaching effects on allaspects of the world’s environment, society and economy.Beyond an increase of 6°C, a change of temperature of thismagnitude could bring about a collapse of the Earth’s bios-phere on a scale with that of the Permian extinction 251million years ago, when a series of violent volcanic erup-tions produced great quantities of sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide which warmed the planet by between 6°and 8°.

As the fossil record has shown, at the end of the Per-mian, reefs died instantly not reappearing on Earth for 10million years, and animal and plant life was almost entirelyeliminated from the planet’s surface.

Literally costing the EarthIf our civilisation is to avoid catastrophic devastation

brought about by climate change, it has been estimatedthat the global mean temperature needs to be kept withinthe bounds of a further 2°C and as the Earth has warmedby 0.74°C over the last 100 years, there is a very small lat-itude for temperature increase.

According to the IPCC, keeping the mean temperaturerise to between 2°C and 2.8°C will require the stabilisa-tion of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations atbetween 445 parts per million (ppm) and 490 ppm.Although still catastrophic for ecosystems and vast num-bers of people and species around the world, it is hopedthat this limit will keep the global climate from crossing adangerous and perhaps irreversible threshold.

However, as atmospheric concentrations of carbondioxide are already at 380 ppm and rising at a rate of 2.54ppm a year, as opposed to an average increase of 1.8 ppma year over the previous decade, the window of opportu-nity for reducing carbon emission levels is closing morerapidly than previously thought and a more realistic sce-nario may be stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxideat 550 ppm, with a corresponding increase in global tem-perature of around 3°C this century.

To indicate the seriousness of this situation, with a tem-perature rise of less than 1°C, crop yields will begin todecline in continental interiors, droughts will spread in theSahel region of Africa, water quality will fall and coral reefs

will start to die. At 1.5°C orless, an extra 400 millionpeople will be exposed towater stress and another fivemillion to hunger. Around18% of the world’s specieswill be lost and the “onset ofcomplete melting of Green-land ice” will be triggered,while at 2°C some of thelarger human impacts andthe critical positive feedbacksare expected to begin.

If we do not greatly reduce our carbon emissions, tem-peratures are likely to reach this point in about 2030 whenthe world’s people are likely to number around 8.2 billion.However, even if the world were to be set on a low carbon energy course tomorrow, we will still experience asignificant degree of climate change as carbon releasedtoday will stay in the atmosphere for around 200 years.

Whether or not it is too late to hold global tempera-tures below the critical threshold, it is absolutely clear thatthe greater the cuts we make, the less the eventual impactwill be. And, with global warming having the potential toplunge the world into a climate-induced dark age, the onlyway forward is to impose a stringent carbon budget onhumankind through sustainable, long-term emissionreductions.

In purely monetary terms, the cost of taking actioncould be in the region of 1% of world GDP a year. How-ever, the cost of not taking remedial action could be muchhigher – around 5% of GDP. Beyond that, failure to taketimely precautionary action could literally cost the Earth.

Risks to energy supplyCompounding the threat to a sustainable future posed

by man-made carbon emissions that could bring about afundamental and irreversible shift in world climate are risksto the security of energy supply with their knock-on envi-ronmental and global-warming effects.

In terms of the fossil triumvirate of coal, oil and gas,coal is our planet’s most abundant and widely distributedfossil fuel, with oil and gas being less abundant than coal,although the peak oil debate notwithstanding, at this timethere are adequate reserves to meet world energydemand. However by 2020, almost 67% of traded oil sup-plies, that is two barrels in every three, are expected to bemet by imports from just four regions – North and WestAfrica, Russia, the Caspian and the five states around thePersian Gulf, namely the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait,

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq. This is an uncomfortable degree of concentration in the

supply of such a crucial commodity, especially as SaudiArabia will be required to supply at least 15 million bar-rels of oil a day by then, with this figure rising steeply iffor any reason either Iran or Iraq were producing belowcapacity.

An associated risk of dependence is that with morethan 80% of the world’s remaining oil and gas reserveslying in areas that are controlled by national governments,decisions taken on the development of the resourcesneeded to meet growing demand may not be taken onthe basis of rational market economics, but on the groundsof narrow national interest.

This could mean that from a national perspective itwould be more lucrative to limit development and to allowprices to rise, which in turn would mean that energy short-age, expressed in very high prices, would hinder economicprogress and reduce living standards around the world.This, in turn, would hamper the reduction of poverty indeveloping countries, which is a key factor in helping toease pressures on the planet.

Another risk in terms of the flow of secure suppliesrelates to the great distances that energy travels betweenenergy sources and points of consumption, when pipelinesand terminals necessary to bring oil and gas supplies tocustomers are situated vast distances from their markets,necessitating the crossing not only of continents, but alsopolitical and cultural boundaries along the way. The enor-mous distances create a host of challenges from oil-relatedpolitical instability to the environmental risks of long-dis-tance pipelines.

In the case of shipping, major oil spills constitute notonly severe risks to marine ecosystems, they also contributeto energy insecurity and, for this reason, single-hulled vessels are being phased out in line with internationalrequirements.

Unstable crude prices, which could be caused by a hostof factors such as volatile markets, political agendas, insta-bility caused by continued conflict in the Middle East,

terrorism and extreme weather conditions that causedamage to wells and offshore platforms, hamperingextraction, could force us into using whatever resourceswere available regardless of environmental consequences.This would adversely affect not only emissions of carbondioxide; it would also cripple our ability to finance theclean energy infrastructure that we need to fight globalwarming.

Wood, steam and the Industrial Revolution

Throughout the ages, the universal need for energyand the development of various energy technologies, fromwood-burning to coal-fired steam power to electricity, hashad a considerable impact on the shaping of humanity,with different methods of energy production creating dif-ferent consequences for humankind and the environment.

The steam-driven Industrial Revolution, for example,revolutionised methods of production, initiating changesfrom manual to machinery-based manufacturingprocesses which stimulated productivity enormously. It

was the catalyst behind the creation of complex systemsof transportation and communication. It also spurred thecorporate form of business enterprise and effectivelymarked the beginning of urbanisation, democratisation,trade unionism and social reform, becoming the forerun-ner of our modern industrial society.

Clean to use, reliable, smoke-free and fume-free, elec-tricity was a marvel of modern ingenuity, poweringprogress and pushing human aspiration, initiative and pro-ductivity to new heights, opening the way to a boomingworld economy and an increased standard of living. How-ever, it has become evident that we have developed aninsatiable appetite for energy with each of us using fourtimes more energy today than our great, great-grandpar-ents did 100 years ago.

Although electricity has been a boon to the modernlifestyle underpinning significant social developments andpowering an unprecedented pace and scale of global eco-nomic output, its use is patently not sustainable and if weare to avoid overwhelmingly calamitous social and environmental consequences from burning fossil fuels,tomorrow’s energy will have to be cleaner and moreresponsible than today’s.

The progressive technologies that we employ this cen-tury could well have just as significant an impact on ourcultural and environmental future as steam and electricityhad in the past.

Certainly because worldwide around half of the powercapacity needed by 2030 has yet to be built, significantopportunities for reductions in carbon emissions can becreated by making a sizeable amount of this new capac-ity from low carbon-generating technologies.

Meeting the energy challengeSustainability is a simple idea. Recognising that the

planet has ecological limits to growth and that resourcedepletion occurs when resources are consumed faster thannature can produce or renew them; it is a dynamic processwhereby a balance is sought between society’s demand

on nature and nature’s capacity to meet that demand, tak-ing into account the ability of future generations to meettheir needs.

In a nutshell, sustainability means caring for naturalresources so that they can be used indefinitely, therebyaverting an ecologically insolvent future. It means livingwithin the means of our one planet in a way that is respon-sible and accountable, looking after people, protecting theenvironment and ensuring economic growth.

By 2050 there will be three billion more energy userson the planet than there are today, making the challengeof creating an energy system that produces more energywith less carbon dioxide, one of the biggest challenges fac-ing the world this century.

With this urgent imperative, the majority of nationsaround the world are making a push towards reshapingtheir energy policies in what could amount to a globalenergy revolution, in which alternative forms of energy fea-ture significantly in the energy supply mix in order tosecure energy supplies with sufficient diversity and reducecarbon emissions.

However, worldwide, carbon emission levels reflect thebillions of decisions we make individually on heating, electric power and travel every day in our homes, offices,factories and motor vehicles around the globe. From a pos-itive perspective, this power of choice gives us the abilityto actively influence our energy future through fundamen-tal social and behavioural changes that enable us to minimise the environmental impact of energy productionand consumption, thereby creating a sustainable futurethrough innovative measures and responsible energychoices.

Therefore, along with economic necessity and politi-cal will, the main drivers of an energy revolution will bechanges in human behaviour and lifestyle and the lower-ing of psychological barriers towards renewable forms ofenergy, together with significant advances in technology.

Until a relatively short time ago concepts, such as a car-bon footprint, carbon market, carbon neutral summit,emissions capping and trading, food miles and carbontaxes on flights, were virtually unknown except to a selectfew. Now, however, they have become a widely acceptedpart of our 21st century world, a world that is becominggreener by the day and, as such, they are indicators of justhow far we have come in reconfiguring our energy future.

Creating a sustainable future within the context of acarbon-constrained world is a complex challenge for all ofhumankind. However, it is not insurmountable, for with aradically decarbonised power sector that utilises renewablesources of energy that are clean, efficient and safe, energysecurity and enduring long-term sustainability can beattained. We just need the will to reduce our collective car-bon footprint, reconfiguring the energy supply mix in aworldwide programme of action in which everyone isinvolved and everyone has a role to play.

Advanced technological solutionsThe transport sector accounts for around one-third of

carbon emissions worldwide. As part of its global researchand development programme with its cleaner fuelsagenda, BP, named South African consumers’ top petro-leum brand for the past eight years in the coveted annualIpsos Markinor/Sunday Times Top Brands study, launchedBP Ultimate in South Africa for all types of vehicles fromvans and family cars to hatchbacks and luxury models, asits answer to emissions reduction.

This highly innovative fuel, available in both unleadedand diesel, has been designed to improve engines’ fuelconsumption while also reducing harmful exhaust emis-sions, as verified by independent tests conducted byexperts at the Centre for Automotive Engineering (CAE).And in recognition of BP’s efforts in reducing emissions, itwas the first product to receive the Greenhouse Office’sGreenhouse Friendly certification.

The level of scientific and technical support at BP andits access to expertise around the world, allows them tosubstantiate fuel economy benefits through actual figureswhich sets BP apart from others in the fuel industry.

CONTINUED ON PAGE 15

Addressing climate change through our use of responsible energy

CLOCKWISE FROM BOTTOM:Transporting fuel.

BPSA’S Waterfrontoffice.

SIPHO MASEKO(BPSA CEO) andKaren Bryden (AACEO) fill up with high-quality fuel.

PICTURES: COURTESY OF BP

PICTURES: COURTESY OF SOLAR HEAT

PICTURES: (CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT) BRENTON GEACH, REUTERS, AP, LEON LESTRADE, AP AND MURRAY WILLIAMS