Energy Security in Camps Energy Security in Camps BayBay

Reliable and uninterrupted power to households and businesses in Camps Bay

•The threats•Immediate and mid term to mitigate based on conservation and renewables•Longer term based on renewables in the context of Camps Bay

Threats to Energy Threats to Energy SecuritySecurity

• The blackouts of April 2008 will re-occur (Leon Louw of Free Market The blackouts of April 2008 will re-occur (Leon Louw of Free Market Foundation)Foundation)

• Demand increasing between 8% and 10% p.a. Demand increasing between 8% and 10% p.a. • Margin between supply and demand shrinking from 16% Margin between supply and demand shrinking from 16%

(Lakmeerharan of Eskom)(Lakmeerharan of Eskom)• Eskom’s new Medupi coal fired power station expected to be Eskom’s new Medupi coal fired power station expected to be

operational earliest 2014; probably 2016operational earliest 2014; probably 2016• Kusile + 1 other (4,800 MW) planned coal fired power stations: Kusile + 1 other (4,800 MW) planned coal fired power stations:

insufficient fundsinsufficient funds• Shortfall of between 20,000 and 40,000 MW generating capacity by Shortfall of between 20,000 and 40,000 MW generating capacity by

2025.2025.• New Nuclear power stations, if ever, earliest 2022; Eskom considers New Nuclear power stations, if ever, earliest 2022; Eskom considers

R 250 billion too expensive compared to coal-fired.R 250 billion too expensive compared to coal-fired.• Regulatory delays in expanding Independent Power Producers (IPP) Regulatory delays in expanding Independent Power Producers (IPP)

and in adopting renewablesand in adopting renewables• Public apathy towards alternative energy and use of renewablesPublic apathy towards alternative energy and use of renewables• Public resistance to electricity tariff increasesPublic resistance to electricity tariff increases

Power Consumption and Rands Trythall

0.00

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Proj 2012 Proj 2013 Proj

YEARS

KW

H a

nd

Ran

ds

KWH INT ZAR INT ZAR non INT 2 per. Mov. Avg. ( ZAR non INT)

Major Major ObservationsObservations

• >40% increase 1>40% increase 1stst July 2010 July 2010

• >450% increase 2013 proj vs 2006 >450% increase 2013 proj vs 2006 actualactual

• Payback for interventions such as Payback for interventions such as water heating via solar panels and water heating via solar panels and other devices < 5 yearsother devices < 5 years

• Measure and Plot your own power usage

• Consider installing solar power water heating, LED’s, timers, energy pumps etc.

• Review the swim pool filter times

THREE it's a magic numberYes it is, it's a magic numberBecause two times three is sixAnd three times six is eighteenAnd the eighteenth letter in the alphabet is RWe've got three R's we're going to talk about todayWe've got to learn toReduce, Reuse, Recycle(Jack Johnson; the singer)

Implement energy saving mechanisms. They make economic sense

Some Conservation Examples!!Some Conservation Examples!!

• • Recycle things. Recycling an aluminum can to produce a new one requires one-tenth of the Recycle things. Recycling an aluminum can to produce a new one requires one-tenth of the energy needed to produce one from scratch. Paper factories use far less energy to make energy needed to produce one from scratch. Paper factories use far less energy to make paper from old newspapers than from wood pulp. paper from old newspapers than from wood pulp.

• • Avoid foods that take a lot of water and energy to produce or transport, such as meat and Avoid foods that take a lot of water and energy to produce or transport, such as meat and processed meals.processed meals.

• • Use bottled water sparingly. For one thing, it’s thousands of times more expensive than Use bottled water sparingly. For one thing, it’s thousands of times more expensive than water from the tap! Tap water is safe to drink, and you can fit a filter to purify it further if water from the tap! Tap water is safe to drink, and you can fit a filter to purify it further if you want. Bottled water consumes energy in production and marketing, and in some you want. Bottled water consumes energy in production and marketing, and in some countries many of the plastic bottles end up as litter and don’t get recycled. countries many of the plastic bottles end up as litter and don’t get recycled.

• • When you make a hot drink, boil just the amount of water you need. Don’t fill the kettle to the When you make a hot drink, boil just the amount of water you need. Don’t fill the kettle to the top if it’s not necessary!top if it’s not necessary!

• • Showering takes four times less energy than bathingShowering takes four times less energy than bathing• • Households are estimated to be responsible for 30% of electricity consumption. So if we all Households are estimated to be responsible for 30% of electricity consumption. So if we all

save electricity, it will make a big difference. save electricity, it will make a big difference. • • When you need to replace a light bulb, buy an energy-saving one: though they are more When you need to replace a light bulb, buy an energy-saving one: though they are more

expensive to buy, they last much longer and use about five times less electricity than expensive to buy, they last much longer and use about five times less electricity than conventional bulbs, so in the end they save you a lot of money.conventional bulbs, so in the end they save you a lot of money.

• • Don’t leave your TV, stereo and computer on ‘standby’ – this is the mode when a little light Don’t leave your TV, stereo and computer on ‘standby’ – this is the mode when a little light remains on. On average, a TV set uses 45% of its energy in standby mode. If all Europeans remains on. On average, a TV set uses 45% of its energy in standby mode. If all Europeans avoided the standby mode, enough electricity would be saved to power a country the size avoided the standby mode, enough electricity would be saved to power a country the size of Belgium.of Belgium.

• • Also, don’t leave your mobile-phone charger plugged in when you have finished charging Also, don’t leave your mobile-phone charger plugged in when you have finished charging your phone – it continues to consume electricity even if the phone is not attached!your phone – it continues to consume electricity even if the phone is not attached!

Climate Change and Climate Change and EconomicsEconomics

Pakistan August 2010Pakistan August 2010

•Death Toll > 2,000•Over 20 to 25 million (15% of total population) displaced> disease etc•Threat of a failed state>>terrorism, drugs, crime etc>>security costs increase•Aid in USD Billions paid by taxpayers

Russia August 2010Russia August 2010Temps > 40 deg C; Hottest in 130 Temps > 40 deg C; Hottest in 130 yearsyears

•Wheat shortages expected, despite reserves>Bread Prices set to rise•South Africa imports 1/3rd of its wheat requirements (40% from Germany)•World Barley prices rise > Higher beef and poultry prices, beer

•South Georgia and the king Penguins•Glacier Erosion >> higher sea levels (17cms since 1900)•“Plan for 100 cms rise in sea levels by the end of 21st Century”, (Bindschadler Emeritus Scientist NASA

•If so, 8 out 10 world’s largest cities will have to move!!

Camps Bay June Camps Bay June 20092009

Restaurant activity disrupted and business lossesRepair costs to streets and infrastructure comes from our pockets via City RATESFlood threat from storm surges, spring tides; beach emasculatedWill there be a next time?

Conclusions of the Conclusions of the Stern ReportStern Report

The evidence shows that ignoring climate change will eventually damage economic growth. Our actions over the coming few decades could create risks of majordisruption to economic and social activity, later in this century and in the next, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes. Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy for the longer term, andit can be done in a way that does not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries. The earlier effective action is taken, the less costly it will be.

South Africa a dirty polluterSouth Africa a dirty polluter• South Africa ranks 12th in carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of South Africa ranks 12th in carbon dioxide emissions from the consumption of

fossil fuels, with 423.81 million tons of CO2 in 2006 (EIA, 2008). fossil fuels, with 423.81 million tons of CO2 in 2006 (EIA, 2008).

• South Africa Ranked 29South Africa Ranked 29thth in GDP 2006 (Economist 2009). in GDP 2006 (Economist 2009).

• South Africa Ranked below 70 in GDP per capita.South Africa Ranked below 70 in GDP per capita.

• South Africa’s plans to build more low grade coal fired power stations South Africa’s plans to build more low grade coal fired power stations exacerbates the CO2 emissionsexacerbates the CO2 emissions

• South Africa and its communities need to embrace with urgency renewables South Africa and its communities need to embrace with urgency renewables (sun, wind, waves etc)(sun, wind, waves etc)

Solar Resource Mapping in Solar Resource Mapping in South Africa Tom Fluri March South Africa Tom Fluri March

20092009

Average annual wind at speed 10 m above ground (m/s)Average annual wind at speed 10 m above ground (m/s)Kilian Hagemann, University of Cape Town (2008)Kilian Hagemann, University of Cape Town (2008)

“Wind can produce 35% of SA’s Electricity”“Wind can produce 35% of SA’s Electricity”Wind generated energy could cost 30% less than energy from Wind generated energy could cost 30% less than energy from

KusileKusile

The Waves and Tides off Camps BayThe Waves and Tides off Camps Bay

An Inclusive Solution and Objectives

•To support and engage with the resource conservation programs of the City of Cape Town by reducing CB’s reliance on the GRID; making power more affordable to those less fortunate than us.•To encourage CB residents to implement energy saving mechanisms and introduce more renewables at household and business levels.•To establish advisory services for CB households and businesses for energy optimization.•To determine to what extent CB as a community could embrace renewables (wind, sun, waves, tides etc); even feeding into the GRID•To establish communications with CB residents via e-mail lists, meetings, projects, expert lectures, Round Tables, Podcasts etc.•To foster support from and engage with other CB representative institutions (CBRRA, CBW etc)

Contact DetailsContact Details

Please consider to join our group, we need additional expertise

•Roy Bermeister: 082-450-7858; e-mail: roy@netxpert.co.za

•Martin Diessner: 072-644-1789; e-mail: martin.diessner@gmail.com

•Roger Trythall: 082-900-2685; e-mail: rtrythall@bluewin.ch

Web address: www.campsbaycommunity.com

The take home messageThe take home message

• MEASUREMENT >> MANAGEMENTMEASUREMENT >> MANAGEMENT“Until you can measure something and express it in numbers, you have only the beginning of understanding.” Lord Kelvin