energy efficiency trends in the eu: have we got off track? · 14 hours ago · evaluate energy...
TRANSCRIPT
Energy efficiency trends in the EU: Have we got off track?
June 25, 2020
Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries, Enerdata
Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiencyorganised by Leonardo ENERGY
About▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE MURE Project.
▪ This project is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission. It covers 31 countries*, mainly energy efficiency agencies or Ministries; it is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and Fraunhofer-ISI.
▪ Its main objectives are to:
✓ Evaluate and compare energy efficiency progress by sector, in relation to the observed trend in energy consumption and to the EU targets ;
✓ Evaluate energy efficiency policy measures and identify the “best measures” .
▪ The project relies on two data bases:
✓ ODYSSEE on energy efficiency indicators;
✓ MURE on all policy measures implemented by sector, and their impact evaluation.
www.odyssee-mure.eu
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 2
*28 EU Member States (UK included)+ Norway, Serbia and Switzerland
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 3
The ODYSSEE data tools
www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu
The data and indicators are updated to 2019 using final energy consumption data produced by Enerdata and “early estimates” of key indicators produced by ODYSSEE through a new methodology (to be revised later and included in data tools in October).
The webinar is based ondata and indicatorsprepared in theframework of theODYSSEE-MURE project,and disseminated in adata base and 5 datatools
Outline
▪ Energy consumption trends
▪ Energy efficiency trends
▪ Conclusions : have we got off track?
4Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
• Stability of the EU primaryconsumption (total energysupply) since 2014, althoughthe GDP increased by 2%/yrwith the return to economicgrowth.
• This follows a significantdecrease of 1.5%/yr between2007 and 2014 due to thefinancial crisis of 2009.
• Regular and rapid decreaseof the primary energyintensity since 2007(~1.8%/year), slightly fasterthan over 2000-2007 (+0.3pt)
Primary energy consumption and intensity VS GDP
Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: ODYSSEEEnergy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 6
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
%/y
ear
GDP Primary consumption Intensity
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2000=
100
• Since 2014, decreasing primary consumption in 7 countries and low consumption growth below the 0.5%/year observed for the EU in 3 other countries.
• Everywhere the consumption is progressing much slower than the GDP, implying a decreasing energy intensity, especially significant in Ireland, Malta, Sweden and the Czech Rep (below 3%/yr).
Primary consumption and GDP trends over 2014-2019
Consumption at normal climate; Sources: ODYSSEE until 2017, Enerdata for 2018 and 2019; *2014-2018.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 7
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
%/y
ear
Primary cons. GDP
• Final consumption, i.e. consumption in industry, transport and buildings,grows again since 2014 with the economic rebound: 0.8%/year.
• This contrasts greatly with the primary energy consumption trend.• Electricity grows much slower (0.3%/yr), as opposed to past trends.• Transport is the most dynamic sector since 2014 (1.6%/yr, similar to
2000-2007 trend), while industry has the lowest progression (0.2%/yr).
Households and services at normal climate *Services include non-specifiedSource: ODYSSEE
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 8
Total Electricity
Final energy consumption trends
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
%/y
ear
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 9
Drivers of primary energy consumption variation over 2014-2019
• Between 2014 and 2019, the primary consumption increased by 17 Mtoe, compared to 50 Mtoe for the final consumption.
• This much lower progression of the primary consumption is due to:• a significant change in the power mix (higher share of renewables,
lower share of nuclear) which contributed to lower the increase in primary consumption by 23 Mtoe
• the increasing efficiency of thermal power plants (-20 Mtoe)
A higher progression of final energy consumption
Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool
1 519
+ 50
+ 5
- 20
- 23 + 5
1 536
1 450
1 500
1 550
1 600
2014 Var. final
cons.
Electricity
penetration
Efficiency
thermal powerplants
Power mix Other transf. 2019
Mto
e
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 10
Final energy consumption by sector and by energy
• Increasing share of transport in total finalconsumption from 30% to 34% in 2019 whileindustry’ share decreased by 4 pts, down to 25%.
• Doubling of the direct penetration of renewables(from 4 to 8% in 2019).
• Decreasing share for gas (from 24% in 2000 to21% in 2019) and for oil (from 43% to 41%) whileelectricity share increased by 2 points.
At normal climate for households and servicesSources: 2000: ODYSSEE and 2019 : Enerdata
6%
43%
24%
19%
4% 4%
5%
41%
21%
21%
4%8%
Coal Oil
Gas Electricity
Heat Renewables
2000
2019*
29% 25%
30% 34%
27% 26%
11% 13%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2019*
Mto
e
Industry Transport Households Services Agriculture
Energy efficiency trends
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
12
How is measured energy efficiency progress in ODYSSEE?
▪ At the level of sub-sectors or end-uses, energy efficiency progressis assessed through a wide variety of indicators of specificconsumption, measured in physical units, such as:
✓ toe/ton for steel, cement in industry (or GJ/t);
✓ toe/pkm for cars, toe/tkm for freight in transport;
✓ toe/m2 for heating, kWh/household for electrical appliancesand AC, … for households ;
✓ kWh/employee, per m2, per bed … in services.
▪ Examples of sectoral indicators are provided in the ODYSSEE “keyindicators tool”*
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
* https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.52005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
kW
h/h
ousehold
s
koe/m
2
Heating Refrigerators
The question now is how to measure energy efficiency progress at sector level?
• For households, we may obtain for instance different energy efficiencytrends: 2.7%/yr for refrigerators and 1.9%/yr for heating.
• The question now is how can we combine the different assessments ofenergy efficiency progress by end-use to get one trend for the wholesector?
• This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 13
-1.9%/yr
-2.7%/yr
How is calculated ODEX?
• ODEX is calculated:
– First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption byend-use or sub-sector, as an index of variation ;
– Then by calculating a average index for the sector weighted bythe share of each end-use or sub-sector in the sector’s energyconsumption.
• As for each sub-sector, index of variation are used, specificconsumption can be expressed in different physical units so as tobe as close as possible to energy efficiency evaluation.
• ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of up to 40 sub-sectors(8 modes in transport, 11 end-uses for households, 14 branches inindustry, 6 branches in services).
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 14
For more information on ODEX: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/odex-indicators-database-definition.pdf
Example of ODEX: households in the EU
• ODEX equal 67 in 2019 ➔ households energy efficiency has improved
by 33% at EU level between 2000 and 2019 (or 2.1%/year).
Only main end-uses shown; ODEX calculated on the basis of 11 end-uses/large appliances : heating (toe/m2) (separation new/existing dwellings), water heating, cooking (toe/dwelling), cooling, lighting, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer, TV (kWh/appliance)
15Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2000=
100
Total
Heating
Water
heatingCooking
Large elec
appliancesAC
Lighting
• Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.2%/yr from 2000to 2019, with a slow down in recent years (0.9%/yr since 2014).
• Larger gains for households (2.1%/yr since 2000), with a net slowdown since 2014 (1.6 %/yr).
• Rate of improvement divided by more than 2 in industry, since 2007(0.8%/yr compared to 1.8%/yr before).
• Regular but limited improvement in transport (1%/year).
Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers
ODEX=79 in 2019 ➔ 21% energy efficiency improvement or 1.2%/yrSource: ODYSSEE
16
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2000=
100
Industry Transport Households Services Total
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cum
ula
ted e
nerg
y s
avin
gs
(Mto
e)
Annual energ
y s
avin
gs
(Mto
e/y
ear)
Annual energy savings Cumulated energy savings
Source: ODYSSEE
• Energy efficiency progress has saved every year since 2000, anadditional volume of 14 Mtoe.
• These annual savings are fluctuating but tend to decrease over time.• Cumulated since 2000, these savings reached around 270 Mtoe in
2019.
Energy efficiency progress results in energy savings
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 18Source: ODYSSEE
• Because of the slowing pace of energy efficiency improvement, theannual additional savings have been regularly decreasing: from anaverage volume of 16.5 Mtoe/yr over 2000-2007 to 14.5 Mtoe/yr over2007-2014 (divided by 3 in industry) and 11 Mtoe/yr since 2014 (1/3reduction for households).
Regular decrease in energy savings
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
Mto
e
Industry Transport Households Services
Average annual additional savings by sector
• The cumulated energy savings in 2019 since 2000 represents the equivalent of 25% of final energy consumption: in other words without these savings the final consumption would have been 25% higher.
• Households, the sector with the highest number of regulations, is over represented, with a share of total savings (46%), much higher than its share in consumption (27%). On the other hand, savings in transport are much lower than their share in consumption (25% vs 34%).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mto
e
25%
25%
46%
4%
% in energy savings
% in final consumption
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 19
Energy savings versus consumption
Source: ODYSSEE
25%
34%
27%
14%
High share of energy savings in final consumption (>25%)
Low share of energy savings in final consumption (<25%)
• Long-standing EU MemberStates (e.g. Germany, Italy andFrance) have a relatively lowershare of energy savings since2000, as they had a greatereffort before.
• New EU MS (e.g. Slovakia,Bulgaria or Latvia) have ahigher share due to greaterefforts in terms of energysavings since 2000
Source: ODYSSEE
Austria
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Greece
HungaryIreland
LatviaLithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Norway
Portugal
Czech Rep
Slovakia
Slovenia
Sweden
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Austria
Belgium
Spain
Finland
France
UK
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
Czech Rep
Germany
Romania
Sweden
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Share
of countr
y e
nerg
y s
avin
gs (
2000-2
017)
in t
ota
l
EU
savin
gs
Share of country final energy consumption in total EU
21
Activity effect : mainly economic growth, plus demography and lifestyle changes (appliance ownership and larger dwellings). Source: ODYSSEE; decomposition tool https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html
Drivers of final energy consumption variation: 2014-2019
• Between 2014 and 2019, the economic and demographic growth (“activity”) contributed to raise the final consumption by 95 Mtoe.
• Energy savings offset more than half of this activity effect by reducing consumption by 55 Mtoe.
50.3
95.1
-4.1
-54.5
6.8 7.0
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mto
e
Var. cons. final
Activity
Structure
Energy savings
Climate
Other
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mto
e
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy savings Primary cons.
Energy savings first fuel in primary energy consumption
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 22
• Looking on a longer period, since 1990, energy savings have reducedprimary consumption by around 580 Mtoe in 2019, i.e. the equivalentof 27% of that consumption.
• Energy savings is the first fuel in primary consumption in 2019 (4points above oil with a share of 23%).
Energy savings represents 27% of 2019 primary consumption
Source: ODYSSEE
Final energy intensity and energy efficiency trends
• Since 2014 energy efficiency only explains half of the final energy intensity reduction.
• Different types of structural changes (e.g. towards less energy intensive sectors (services) and industrial branches, saturation effects, higher value added products … ) have contributed as much to the intensity reduction .
• Before 2014 most of the intensity decrease was due to energy efficiency improvements (around 80%)…
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 23
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
%/y
ear
Final intensity Structural changes Savings
Source: ODYSSEE
Conclusions
Have we got off track?
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 24
EU Energy efficiency targets
* Referred to as PRIMES 2007 from the model name used
• Energy efficiency targets are always difficult to define, they can beexpressed in terms of:
i. Energy intensity reduction, but as explained, variation in intensityinclude other factors than energy efficiency;
ii. Energy consumption reduction compared to a baseline;iii. Energy savings;iv. Energy consumption target level (i.e. absolute consumption cap)
• The EU has been using the 3 last types of targets, in a complementaryway. If we refer to the most recent update of the EU energy efficiency lawcalled EED (Energy Efficiency Directive), the EU has the following targets:• 32.5% energy saving target in 2030 (20% in 2020), for the EU as
whole, compared to a Baseline projection*;• 1.5% additional energy savings until 2020 and 0.8% over 2021-2030
from energy savings obligation or policy measures (Article 7 of EED);• Primary and final energy consumption targets by country (Article 3).
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 25
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Mto
e
Primary cons. at real climate Final cons. at real climate Final cons. target
Primary cons. target BAU primary BAU final
Primary and final energy consumption targets
Source: ODYSSEE
-20%
• In 2019, EU primary and final consumption were closed to the 2020efficiency targets (around 4% and 3% above respectively).
• Warmer winters have helped achieving the targets (final consumption atnormal climate 5% above target in 2019) .
• Past trends do not enable to reach the 2030 targets.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 26
-32.5%
PRIMES 2007
27
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mto
e
Art. 7 savings Top-down ODYSSEE savings Target
Article 7 imposes a certain level of energy savings
• 1.5% of additional annual savings according to Article 7 of EED forfinal consumers over 2014-2020 (and 0.8%/year from 2021 to 2030).
• Energy savings from Article 7 as reported by MS reached 40% of 2020target in 2017, our estimate based on indicators exceed the target butour savings are broader than Article 7 savings (as they include alltypes of savings: policy related and from autonomous progress).
Source: ODYSSEESavings target obtained by cumulating annual energy savings over 2014-2020
Conclusions• Since 2014, the increasing share of renewables and
more efficient thermal generation has offset 90% of the increase in final consumption.
• Energy efficiency improvement of final consumers has been much slower since 2007 in industry and since 2014 for households.
• The progression is the strongest for households (multiple regulations and incentives implemented at EU and national level).
• Have we got off track?
– EU 2020 targets on primary consumption will be easily reached due to COVID crisis which will decrease consumption by 5 to 10% in 2020.
– EU target to 2030 will not be reached with present trends and require additional measures, which is the purpose of Article 7.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 28
www.enerdata.net
Thank you for your attention !
Contact:
About Enerdata:
Enerdata is an energy intelligence and consulting company established in 1991. Our experts will help you tackle key energy and climate issues and make sound strategic and business decisions. We provide research, solutions, consulting and training to key energy players worldwide.
Bruno Lapillonne,
Scientific director
Laura Sudries,
Energy efficiency analyst
29Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020