energy efficiency in the seventh northwest power plan · and economic determinist’s” forecasts...

Energy Efficiency in the Seventh Northwest Power Plan

The Seventh Power Plan

•Approved in February, the Plan includes conservation targets that would provide electricity resources to meet nearly all of the regional load growth over the next 20 years

•Speakers:• Mr. Tom Eckman - How EE became a resource in

the Northwest • Mr. Charles Grist – 7th Plan process and results• Ms. Tina Jayaweera – Res. & Ag Sector Potential• Mr. Kevin Smit – Com., Ind., & Dist. System Potential• Mr. Charles Grist – Taking action

2

A Short History of Power Planning in the Northwest

Presented by:Tom Eckman

Northwest Power & Conservation Council

ORWhy You All Have Jobs!

What Happened AfterLewis and Clark Left?

The First Three “Eras” of Power Planning in the PNW

• “New Deal” Mysticism (1930-1950)•Politicians plan using “chicken entrails and crystal balls” legislate what’s needed and when

•Engineering Determinism (1950-1970)•Engineers, using graph paper and rulers, schedule the next power plants

•Economic Determinism (1970 to April 27, 1983)•Economist, using price elasticity, slow the engineer’s construction schedules

The “New Deal”

• Federal Government authorized the development hydroelectric projects on the Columbia and Snake Rivers

• Bonneville Power Administration established to market federal power to the region’s public andprivate utilities

slide 6

The “New Deal’s” Legacy

Salmon Take

A Big Hit!

Regional Electricity Demand Growth Averaged 7% Annually from 1950 - 1979

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

PNW

Ele

ctri

city

Loa

d (a

MW

)

Elvis Inducted Into US Army

Beatle’s Breakup

R2 = 0.99

Engineers, Observing This Data,Forecast Continued “Trend Line” Growth

3,000

8,000

13,000

18,000

23,000

28,000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

PNW

Ele

ctrici

ty L

oad

(aM

W) 1955 Forecast

1960 Forecast

1965 Forecast

1970 Forecast

1975 Forecast

Economists, Observed That Retail Electric Rates, After Declining (in real terms) Since 1938

Were Increasing

slide 10

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978

Aver

age

Rev

enue

/kW

h (C

ents

/kW

h)

Nominal$ (Cents/kWh)

2012$ (Cents/kWh)

Could This Be “Price Response”?

Economist Recognized “Price Response” and Significantly Lowered Forecast

3,000

8,000

13,000

18,000

23,000

28,000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

PNW

Ele

ctri

city

Loa

d (a

MW

) 1955 Forecast1960 Forecast1965 Forecast1970 Forecast1975 Forecast1980 Forecast

Actions Taken in Response to “Engineering and Economic Determinist’s” Forecasts

•Hydro -Thermal Power Program (HTPP) Created • Utilities planned and/or started construction on 28 power plants to be completed over a 20-year period.

•Environmental groups sued Bonneville over plans to turn the Columbia into “Wave World”

•Native American tribes sued the state and federal government over loss of salmon

Hydro-Thermal Power Program Plants1970 - 1990

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Thermal Plant 20Thermal Plant 19Thermal Plant 18Thermal Plant 17Thermal Plant 16Thermal Plant 15Thermal Plant 14

Creston - WASkagit #2 - WASkagit #1 - WA

Pebble Springs #2 - ORPebble Springs #1 - ORWPPS #5 - Satsop, WA

WPPS #4 - HanfordWPPS #3 - Satsop

WPPS #1 - HanfordWPPS #2 - Hanford

Colstrip #4, MTColstrip #3, MTBoardman, OR

Jim Bridger #4, WYJim Bridger #3, WY

Colstrip #2, MTTrojan, OR

Jim Bridger #2, WYColstrip #1, MT

Jim Bridger #1, WYCentralia Unit 2, WACentralia Unit 1, WA

13

1970

1990

The First Assault on the Hydro Legacy:Thermal Plant Cost Dramatically Increase

Wholesale Rates

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986

BPA

Who

lesa

le P

ower

Rat

e (C

ents

/kW

h)

Nominal$ (Cents/kWh)

2012$ (Cents/kWh)

BPA Rates Increase 418% over 5 years

PNW Retail Electric Rates1938 - 1985

slide 15

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982Aver

age

Ret

ail R

ate

(Cen

ts/k

Wh)

Nominal$ Cents/kWh2012$ Cents/kWh

Retail Electric Rates REALLY Increase inResponse to ThermalPlant Costs

Utility Forecasts Dramatically UnderestimatedConsumer Response to “Price Effects”

3,000

8,000

13,000

18,000

23,000

28,000

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

PNW

Ele

ctrici

ty L

oad

(aM

W)

1955 Forecast1960 Forecast1965 Forecast1970 Forecast1975 Forecast1980 ForecastActual Loads

Utility Load Forecast Significantly Underestimate Consumer Response to Increase Retail Prices

Actual Loads are 6700 MWa Lower Than Forecast Just 10 Years Prior, and 3700 aMW Lower Than Forecast Only Five Years Prior)

Regional Response to the Assault on the PNW’s Hydro Legacy

• Terminate construction on 9 nuclear and differ construction of 9 coal plants at a cost to the region’s consumers of more than $7 billion.

• Motivate the region’s politicians, utilities, larger industries and public interest groups to accept the “deals” embodied in the Northwest Power Planning and Conservation Act of 1980

Major Elements of the Northwest Power and Conservation Act of 1980

• Authorized States to form Council• Directed Council to develop 20-year load forecast

and resource plan (“The Plan”)• Bonneville is given authority to acquire resources

consistent with the Council’s Plan• Plan is to provide for the development of the least

cost mix of resources• Conservation is defined as resource equivalent to

generation and given a 10% cost advantage• Mandated public involvement in planning process.

The Evolution of Energy Policy

April 18, 1977 –Conservation means a cold dark house

President Carter announces we are engaged in the “Moral Equivalent Of War” (MEOW)

December 5, 1980 -Conservation declared a resource equivalentto generation

President Carter signs Northwest Powerand Conservation Act

President Carter Awarded Nobel Peace Prize

Contact

For more information, contact:Tom EckmanDirector, Power DivisionNorthwest Power & Conservation [email protected]

Bonneville Debt Repayment from 1978 through 2014 for WNP 1 - 3

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Cum

ulat

ive

Cos

t (bi

llion

s)

Principal - WNP1 Interest-WNP1 Principal-CGSInterest-CGS Principal-WNP3 Interest-WNP3

Bonneville Debt Repayment from 1978 through 2014for WNP 1 and 3

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013Cum

ulat

ive

Cos

t (bi

llions

)

Principal - WNP1 Interest-WNP1Principal-WNP3 Interest-WNP3

These two nuclear plants were terminated due to significant cost overruns and lower load growth than forecast.

Net Debt Impacts of CGS and Projects 1 & 3

0.00

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

14,000.00

16,000.00

18,000.00

20,000.00

Paid Remaining *

Tota

l Pai

d in

Mill

ions

of N

omin

al $

Principal Interest

Principal InterestPaid 4,101 13,773Remaining * 5,489 3,305

23

* - Remaining principal and remaining interest estimate based on BPA’s 2015 report to Congress

Millions of 2012 $

Principal Paid 4,544

Interest Paid 18,658

Total Paid 23,203

Inflation Adjusted Impacts

Nominal Impacts

Seventh Power Plan: Key Findings and Resource Strategy

Presented by:Charlie Grist


The Council’s Power Plan• Goal: An Adequate, Efficient, Economical, Reliable Power Supply

• Least-Cost Resource Strategy with Acceptable Risk • Regional Action Plan to Implement Strategy

• How is the Plan Used?• Guides BPA Resource Decisions• Independent reference for all of the region’s utilities, regulatory commissions and

policy-makers

25

The Seventh Power Plan – Major Issues

26

Impact of announced coal-plant retirements on need for new resource development

Centralia 1 & 2 – 1340 MW

Boardman –550 MW

North Valmy – 522 MW

Implications of and options for addressing EPA’s Clean Power PlanHow to best meet regional need for capacity (i.e., peaking) resources

The Answers to These Issues RequiresPlanning for Uncertainty

Resource Strategies – actions and policies over which the decision maker has control that will affect the outcome of decisions

Futures – circumstances over which the decision maker has no control that will affect the outcome of decisions

Scenarios – Combinations of Resource Strategies and Futures used to “stress test” how well what we control performs in a world we don’t control

27

Council Follows the “Gump” Resource Strategy Testing Model

Method: Stress testing resource strategies under uncertain futures

28

Council Tested Over Two Dozen Different Scenarios

• Existing Policy• Social Cost of Carbon• Retire Coal• Retire Coal and Inefficient Gas• Retire Coal & Impose Social Cost of Carbon

• Retire Coal & Impose Social Cost of Carbon & No New Gas

• Regional RPS @ 35%• No Demand Response• Increase Market Reliance• Lower Conservation

29

A Brief Look at the Analysis & Findings

30

Regional Population and Economic Forecast

114% 120%127% 126%

136%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Population Employment Households CommercialFloor Space

IndustrialOutput

Perc

ent

Gro

wth

201

5 to

203

5

31

Forecast Load Growth Over The Next Two Decades(Average Over 800 Futures)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Reg

iona

l Loa

d (A

vera

ge

Meg

awat

ts)

Medium Load Forecast - Pre-Energy Efficiency

Load Reduction from Federal Standards Adopted Since 6thPlan

32

Seventh Power Plan Least Cost Resource Strategies for Meeting Forecast Energy and Capacity Needs

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Cum

ulat

ive

Res

ourc

e D

evel

opm

ent

(aM

W)

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Natural Gas

Energy Efficiency

33

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Cum

ulat

ive

Res

ourc

e D

evel

opm

ent

(MW

)

Renewable ResourcesDemand ResponseNatural GasEnergy Efficiency

All Resource Cost – Energy

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160

Energy Efficiency (Average Cost w/ T&D…Energy Efficiency (Average Cost w/o T&D…

Solar PV - Low Cost S. IDNatural Gas - CCCT Adv1Natural Gas - CCCT Adv2

Solar PV - S. IDWind -MT w/ new transm.

Wind - MT w/ Transm. UpgradeWind - Colum. Basin

Natural Gas - Frame GT EastSolar PV- S. ID w/ Transm. Expan.

Natural Gas - Recip Engine EastNatural Gas - Aero GT East

Real Levelized Cost (2012$/MWh)

Capital O&M + Property Taxes + Insurance Fuel + Transmission

34

All Resource Cost – Peak Capacity

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400

Demand Response Price Block 1Demand Response Price Block 2Demand Response Price Block 3

Solar PV - Low Cost S. IDNatural Gas - Frame GT East

Natural Gas - CCCT Adv1Demand Response Price Block 4Natural Gas - Recip Engine East

Natural Gas - Aero GT EastNatural Gas - CCCT Adv2

Solar PV - S. IDWind - Colum. Basin

Solar PV- S. ID w/ Transm. Expan.Wind -MT w/ new transm.

Wind - MT w/ Transm. Upgrade

Real Levelized Cost (2012$/kW-yr)

Capital O&M + Property Taxes + Insurance Fuel + Transmission

35

Conservation Can Provide Capacity Benefits

Depending on WHEN a measure saves energy

36

Key Finding:

37

Because they cost less!

The Seventh Power Plan Relies on Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Resources To Meet Load Growth

Residential & Agriculture in the Seventh Plan

Presented by:Tina Jayaweera


7P EE by Sector

Cost-Effective Energy Efficiency Potential (aMW)

Sector 2021 2026 2035Agriculture 63 93 121Residential 585 1172 1802Commercial 543 1224 1732Industrial 284 485 571Utility 28 77 187Grand Total 1,503 3,050 4,414

43

Note: the Council does not set sector-specific goals or targets

RESIDENTIAL

44

Res Measure List

45

End Use Measure Bundle(s) End Use Measure Bundle(s)

DryerHeat pump clothes dryer

Lighting

LED lighting

LED lighting - pre 2020

Electronics

MonitorLinear fluorescent lighting

Desktop Refrigeration RefrigeratorLaptop FreezerAdvanced power strips

Water Heating

Aerator

HVAC

Controls, Commissioning, & Sizing Clothes WasherDishwasher

Duct Sealing Wastewater heat recovery

Ductless heat pump Heat pump water heaterShowerheadsDHP with ducted systemSolar water heater

Ground-source heat pumpWhole Bldg/Meter Level

Behavior/ControlsHeat recovery ventilation Electric vehicle supply

equipmentWeatherization(Insulation + Windows) Food Preparation

Microwave

Air-source heat pump conversion Electric oven

ASHP upgrades

Variable-capacity heat pump

WIFI enabled thermostats

Distribution of Cost-Effective Potential (20-yr aMW)

46

Residential End-UseCategory

1,802(aMW in 2035)

Electronics 221

Food Preparation 6

HVAC 608

Lighting 437

Water Heating 484

Whole Bldg 45

Note: Council does not set sector or end-use specific goals

Commercial

Industrial

Agricultural

Residential

Utility

What’s New from 6P?

47

Total Cost-effective Potential Savings from “New” Res Measures (aMW)

Measure Bundle 2021 2026 2035Advanced Power Strips 29 117 185

Aerator 5.4 21 34

Behavior 17 38 45

DHP in Ducted 28 76 158

Lighting 166 351 437

WIFI enabled tstats 4.5 9.9 12 All New Measures 249 613 871

"New"Other

AGRICULTURAL

48

Ag Measure List

49

End Use Measure Bundle(s)

LightingDairy lighting

Outdoor barn lighting

Dairy

Vacuum pump

Plate milk pre-cooler

Heat recovery ventilation

Irrigation Water Efficiency

Scientific Irrigation SchedulingLow-energy spray application

Irrigation hardware

Green motor rewind

Replace/rebuild nozzles/gaskets/pipes

Convert high/med pressure to low pressure

Distribution of Cost-Effective Potential (20-yr aMW)

50

Agricultural End-Use Category

121(aMW in 2035)

Irrigation Hardware 71

Irrigation Water Management 41

Lighting 8

Dairy 1Agricultural

Note: Council does not set sector or end-use specific goals

What’s New from 6P?

• LED lighting• Low-Energy Spray Application - LESA

• ~19 aMW of cost-effective 20-year potential• Low pressure (<10 psi)• Low elevation (below crop foliage)

51

Top Takeaways for Res & Ag

1. Lighting is still big2. Controls are the future3. Standards are important4. Recognize market dynamics5. Keep an eye on long term

52

Contact

For more information, contact:Tina JayaweeraSenior AnalystNorthwest Power & Conservation [email protected]

Energy Efficiency in the Seventh Power Plan:

Commercial and Industrial SectorPresented by:

Kevin Smit, Senior AnalystNorthwest Power and Conservation Council

7P EE by Sector

Cost-Effective Energy Efficiency Potential (aMW)

Sector 2021 2026 2035Agriculture 63 93 121Residential 585 1172 1802Commercial 543 1224 1732Industrial 284 485 571Utility 28 77 187Grand Total 1,503 3,050 4,414

55

Note: the Council does not set sector-specific goals or targets

Seventh Power Plan: Commercial Sector EE Potential

56

57

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350N

umbe

r of U

nits

Thou

sand

s

Example CBSA: Single Zone HVAC Equipment Units

Warehouse

School K-12

Retail/Service

Restaurant

Residential Care

Other

Office

Lodging

Grocery

Assembly

The 7P commercial potential estimates relied heavily on the Commercial Building Stock Assessment (CBSA).Total Stock = 3.35 Billion SF

Commercial Measure List

58

End-Use Measure Bundle End-Use Measure BundleCompressed Air Compressed Air

Lighting

Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting

Electronics

Data Centers Exterior Building LightingDesktop LEC Exit SignLaptop Lighting Controls InteriorMonitor Low Power LF LampsSmart Plug Power Strips Lighting Power Density

Food PreparationCooking Equipment Parking Garage Lighting

Pre-Rinse Spray Valve Street and Roadway Lighting

HVAC

Advanced Rooftop ControllerMotors/Drives

ECM-Variable Air Volume

Commercial Energy Management Motors Rewind

DCV Parking GarageProcess Loads

Municipal Sewage Treatment

DCV Restaurant Hood Municipal Water Supply

DCV BuildingsRefrigeration

Grocery Refrigeration Bundle

Ductless Heat Pumps Water Cooler Controls

EconomizerWater Heating

Water Heater TanksPremium Fume Hood ShowerheadsSecondary Glazing Systems Clothes Washer

Variable Speed ChillerVariable Refrigerant FlowWeb-Enabled Programmable Thermostats (WEPT)

Commercial

Results: Cost-effective 20-year Potential

59

Commercial End-Use Category aMW in 2035

Compressed Air 17

Electronics 392

Food Preparation 64

HVAC 407

Lighting 692

Motors/Drives 35

Process Loads 47

Refrigeration 69

Water Heating 10

Total 1732

What’s New?

60

Savings from “New” Measures (aMW)

Measure Bundle 2021 2026 2035

Advanced Rooftop Controller 22 83 117Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting 1 4 9

Compressed Air 5 9 17Embedded Data Centers 55 230 261

Ductless Heat Pump 12 43 60Light Emitting Capacitor Exit Sign 4 9 19

Lighting Controls Interior 2 6 13Low Power LF Lamps 14 39 39

Interior Lighting 112 216 399Motors Rewind 2 4 5

Parking lot Lighting 6 8 8Secondary Glazing Systems 1 5 10

Smart Plug Power Strips 30 42 47Street and Roadway Lighting 30 57 61

Variable Refrigerant Flow 5 25 78Water Cooler Controls 2 10 12

Web-Enabled Thermostat 3 7 7Water Heater Tanks 0 1 2

"New"

Other

• Some emerging tech, some just new to 7P• Research and development needed•Three main categories: controls, electronics, HVAC

Seventh Power Plan: Industrial Sector EE Potential

61

Key Measure & Practices• Air Compressor Demand Reduction• Air Compressor Equipment• Air Compressor Management• HighBay Lighting • Lighting Controls• Motors: Efficient Rewind VSD Controls• Motor Management Program• Fan Efficient Centrifugal• Food: Fans and Blowers• Other: Fans and Blowers• Fan ASD Control• Premium Pump• Pump ASD Control• Food: Cooling and Storage• Food: Refrigeration Storage O&M• Metal: New Arc Furnace

• Paper: Medium Consistency Pump• Mech Pulp: Refiner Replacement• Mech Pulp: Premium Process• Mech Pulp: Refiner Plate Improvement• Kraft Pulp: Effluent Treatment System• Kraft Pulp: Efficient Agitator• Paper: Efficient Pulp Screen• Paper: Premium Fan• Paper: Material Handling• Wood: Replace Pneumatic Conveyor• Wood: Hydraulic Press• Cold Storage Retrofit• Cold Storage Tuneup• Fruit Storage Refer Retrofit• CS Retrofit -- CO2 Scrub• CS Retrofit -- Membrane• Fruit Storage Tuneup• Grocery Dist Retrofit & Tuneup

62

Industrial Segments

63

Industrial Segment Forecasted Load (MWh 2035)Mechanical Pulp 4,261,225Kraft Pulp 2,596,442Paper 5,267,664Foundries 673,247Frozen Food 1,243,766Other Food 3,189,467Wood - Lumber 620,280Wood - Panel 718,938Wood - Other 1,525,349Sugar 582,684Hi Tech - Chip Fabrication 999,801Hi Tech - Silicon 347,399Metal Fabrication 668,274Transportation Equipment 1,697,223Refinery 1,143,256Cold Storage 1,129,112Fruit Storage 3,380,049Chemical 4,496,577Miscellaneous Manufacturing 4,717,786Total 39,258,539

Agriculture

Commercial

Industrial

Residential

Utility

Cost-effective Industrial Potential (20-yr aMW)

64

Industrial End-Use Category aMW in 2035

Low Temp Refer 21Med Temp Refer 60

Compressed Air 18Drying and Curing 2Fans and Blowers 63Heating 4HVAC 10Lighting 45Material Handling 51Other Motors/EM 214Pumps 82Total 571

Over 300 of the 571 aMWcould be considered “energy

management”

How Much “Energy Management”?

65

Energy Management Total 311 (aMW) Air Compressor Optimization 6 Clean Room: Chiller Optimize 1 Cold Storage Tuneup 2 Energy Project Management 86 Fan Energy Management 8 Fan System Optimization 24 Food: Refrigeration Storage Tune-up 7 Fruit Storage Tuneup 11 Groc Dist Tuneup 1 Integrated Plant Energy Management 77 Plant Energy Management 40 Pump Energy Management 12 Pump System Optimization 34

Seventh Power Plan: Distribution System EE Potential

66

7th Plan Distribution Efficiency

• Reduces losses on the distribution system with out a reduction in service

• Total potential = 187 aMW• Includes the same measures as the Sixth Plan, e.g.,

• CVR• Reconductoring• VAR management• Phase load balancing• Feeder load balancing• Voltage regulators• EOL and LDC voltage control

67

Agriculture

Commercial

Industrial

Residential

Utility

Cost-effective Industrial Potential (20-yr aMW)

68

Distribution Efficiency Category aMW in

2035Reduce system voltage 83

Minor system improvements (e.g., phase load balancing) 50

Major system improvements (e.g., reconductoring) 55

Total 187

Top Takeaways for Commercial, Industrial and Distribution System

1. Lighting is still big2. Controls are the future3. Energy management is still big, and difficult4. Data centers and electronics5. Don’t forget about the distribution system

69

Contact

For more information, contact:Kevin SmitSenior AnalystNorthwest Power and Conservation [email protected]

Seventh Power Plan: Taking Action

71

7P Action Items• 71 Action Items: Who, What, When, Why• 26 Action Items Directly EE

• Ten Bonneville-Specific Actions• Nine items for NEEA – some new• Items for RTF• Model Conservation Standards• Revised cost-effectiveness methodology• Research, tracking, regulation• Non-Energy Impacts • Focus areas like Hard-To-Reach Markets• Promoting the value proposition for EE

72

What Does This Mean for EE Programs & Evaluators & Engineers ?

• Steady as she goes• Lots of low-cost potential & challenges to acquire it• Spot market price is NOT the avoided cost for least-cost• Expand thinking beyond annual average savings• Integration with DR programs• Baselines changing – programs adjust• Be smart & strategic about programs• Importance of EE research & performance

73

74

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

aMW

Plan GoalsCodes & Standards & Market-InducedUtility-Funded

Baseline Step Up

7P: New Goals & New Baselines

But What If We Don’t Need Energy or Capacity Today?

Plan Findings

75

• Underlying load growth• Loss of existing generation• A steady EE build - 0ffsetting long-

term net growth is least-cost and low-risk

• Incremental sustained progress at low cost accumulates high value

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

<0 <10

<20

<30

<40

<50

<60

<70

<80

<90

<100

<110

<120

<130

<140

<150

<160

<170

<180

<190

<200

>200Te

chni

cal A

chie

vabl

e Po

tent

ial (

aMW

)

TRC Net Levelized Cost (2012$/MWh)

Lost Opportunity Retrofit

Lots of EE Between Spot Market Price & Cost of New Generation

76

Spo

t Mar

ket

Gas

C

CC

T

Spot Market Price Is Not The Least-Cost Avoided Cost For EE

Plan Findings

• Building about twice the EE than would be built with spot market as avoided cost

• And reduces long-term system cost & risk & revenue requirements

77

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

aMW

NPV

Sys

tem

Cos

t (bi

llion

$)

Sum of NPVAverageSystem w/CO2Costs

Sum of NPVAverageSystem Riskwith CO2Costs

Sum ofConservation(aMW) by 2035

System costs and risk both increase by about 15 percent if spot market price is used as avoided cost

• About 30 new measures• Nearly half of potential• Key new technology

• SSL & Controls ~50%• HVAC ~25%• Electronics ~15%• Plug loads• Behavioral• New applications of old

78

‘New' to 7P 2,300

Remain from

6P2,800

Total Savings Potential(aMW Year 2035)

And There Are New Measures

Incorporate Value of Deferred Generation Capacity in B/C

• Energy• Deferred Capacity • Avoided Annual O&M• Avoided Other fuel• Non-Electric Benefit• Avoided Periodic

Replacement• Risk Avoidance

• Capital• Program Admin• Annual O&M• Other fuel• Non-Electric Cost• Periodic Replacement

Benefits Costs

79

What Does Revised Cost-Effectiveness Mean?

• Will credit more value to measures that provide peak capacity reduction

• And less to those that don’t

80

Some EE & DR Overlap

• Efficiency Device?• A Demand Response Device?• Who’s Storage Is It?• A Noisy Thing in the Closet?

81

RTF Issues

• Updated Cost-Effectiveness & Avoided Costs• Current Practice Baseline• Tee-Up Research Needed for Savings Estimates• Research & Guidelines for Non-Energy Impacts• Facilitating Research Agenda• Reviewing Big Mo• Hourly Profiles of Savings Important

82

Summary

• Not Done Yet on EE• Steady As She Goes• Be Smart About It

• A dynamic & evolving ecosystem• Strategic, focused, flexible, opportunistic • Monitor uptake outside of programs• Leverage the easy stuff• Build strategies for the difficult

83

Wrap Up & Stoke

84

Since 1978 Utility Funded Programs and Codes and Standards have Produced Nearly 5800 aMW of Savings

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

600019

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

14

Cum

ulat

ive

Savi

ngs

(aM

W)

Federal Standards

State Codes

NEEA

85

What’s the Value of 5800 aMW?

• It’s represents enough energy savings to save the region’s electricity consumers nearly $3.7 billion in 2014

• It lowered carbon emissions in the Pacific Northwest by an estimated 22.2 million MTE

86

Energy Efficiency Was The Region’s Second Largest Resource in 2014

87

Hydropower46%

Energy Efficiency17.4%

Coal14.1%

Geothermal<1%

Natural Gas9.3%

Nuclear3.3%

Wind8.0%

Biomass1.3%

Based on 2014 Actual Dispatch and Hydro Resource Output from EIA

50 Years to Develop the PNW Hydro-SystemEnergy Efficiency Can Extend That Legacy

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Ann

ual F

irm E

nerg

y O

utpu

t (aM

W)

Year of Development

Firm Energy Hydro Development 1930 - 1979

Energy Efficiency Resource Development 1980 - 2015

Planned Energy Efficiency Resource Development 2016 - 2035

88

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I don’t always write power plans.But when I do, I prefer EFFICIENCY

Stay EFFICIENT, my friends!

Contact

For more information, contact:Charles GristConservation Resources ManagerNorthwest Power & Conservation [email protected]

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energy efficiency in the seventh northwest power plan · and economic determinist’s” forecasts...

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