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Energy Efficiency and The Grid of The Future
Iowa Association of Energy Efficiency – 2019 Summit
November 7, 2019
Energy Efficiency and the Grid of the Future
U.S Green Building Council
1.0
Learning Objectives
3
01 Understand how renewable generation at the grid level is reducing emissions
02 Describe how grid-scale generation sources impact energy efficiency
03 Compare the value of building-level technologies as grid-scale emissions change
04 Convey how we can impact building today for grid of the future
Future Generation
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Renewable energy
▪ Wind
▪ Solar
Battery Storage
Reduced fuel costs
Reduced carbon emissions
California Duck Curve Projection
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California Duck Curve – Actual vs Projected
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What About the Midwest- Do We Have a Duck Problem?
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NO NO
Smiling Gator of the Upper Midwest
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▪ Energy markets will need to adapt to zero/low marginal costs at times
▪ Lowest system cost may mean “overbuilding” wind
▪ Different grids will have different profiles
Midwest Energy Demand and Production
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Midcontinent Independent System Operation, Inc. (MISO) electricity overview (demand, forecast demand, net generation, and total interchange) 10/22/2019 -10/29/2019, Central Time
Midwest Energy Demand and Production
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Midcontinent Independent System Operation, Inc. (MISO) electricity generation by energy source 10/22/2019 -10/29/2019, Central Time
“Nothing is either good nor bad, but thinking costs and environmental
impacts make it so.”
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- Hamlet
Shaping Load Profiles
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Net Load Example
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▪ Spinning reserve is expensive, you are paying for something you might need
▪ Some building loads may be able to be shifted
▪ Wind generation shifts may be less consistent than solar
Four Ways for Buildings to Respond to Generation
ShapeCaptures DR that reshapes customer load profiles through price response or on behavioral campaigns—“load-modifying DR”—with advance notice of months todays.
Shift
Represents DR that encourages the movement of energy consumption from times of high demand to times of day when there is a surplus of renewable generation. Shift could smooth net load ramps associated with daily patterns of solar energy generation.
Shed
Describes loads that can be curtailed to provide peak capacity and support the system in emergency or contingency events—at the statewide level, in local areas of high load, and on the distribution system, with a range in dispatch advance notice times.
Shimmy
Describes loads that can be curtailed to provide peak capacity and support the system in emergency or contingency events—at the statewide level, in local areas of high load, and on the distribution system, with a range in dispatch advance notice times.
Source: LBNL’s 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study
Building Load Curves – End Uses to Load Shapes
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Energy Efficiency Impacts
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Energy Efficiency Process
EnrollmentYou provide basic
information about your building through our EDA
Application
STEP 1
Preliminary AnalysisTogether we perform
real-time evaluation of energy-efficiency
improvements and bundle potential whole-
building strategies for further analysis
STEP 2
Final AnalysisYou determine which
bundle strategies best fit your project goals, from which projected energy
savings and utility incentives are determined
STEP 3
VerificationWe confirm your project was constructed to plan and issue a verification report for you and your
utility partner
STEP 4
IncentivesYour utility partner
provides incentives for the strategies
implemented in your project
STEP 5
Time Value of Energy Efficiency
▪ Economic value of DSM is changing due to decarbonizing system
▪ Loss of fuel savings
▪ Less environmental benefits
▪ Wanted to see if DSM could help shape the load
▪ DSM as grid resource
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▪ Studied impacts on 10 projects
▪ Current marginal cost and carbon
▪ Future marginal cost and carbon
▪ Analyzed 20 potential strategies
Studied Measures
▪ Ice Storage for Chilled Water
▪ Ice Storage for Refrigeration
▪ Electric SWH Storage
▪ Pre-Cooling/Night Purge
▪ Pre-Heating
▪ Process Load Timing Shifts
▪ Battery Storage (Carbon)
▪ Battery Storage (Cost)
▪ Dynamic Glazing
▪ Standby Generators (Carbon)
▪ Standby Generators (Cost)
▪ Occupancy Pattern Shifts
▪ Lighting 20% dim at peak times
▪ Cooling Setpoint temperature Change
▪ Daylighting
▪ Reduced Overall LPD
▪ Lower SHGC Glazing
▪ Fan System Power Reduction
▪ Improved Cooling Efficiencies
▪ Increased WWR
▪ Replace Heating With Heat Pumps/VRF
▪ Replace Reheat Coils with Electric Resistance
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Carbon and Cost Savings for Energy Efficiency Strategies, Current and Future
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Ice
Sto
rage
fo
r C
W
Ice
Sto
rage
fo
r R
efri
g
Elec
tric
SW
H S
tora
ge
Pre
-Co
olin
g/N
igh
t P
urg
e
Pre
-Hea
tin
g
Pro
cess
Lo
ad T
ime
Shif
ts
Bat
tery
Sto
rage
(C
arb
on
)
Bat
tery
Sto
rage
(C
ost
)
Dyn
amic
Gla
zin
g
Gen
erat
ors
(C
arb
on
)
Gen
erat
ors
(C
ost
)
Occ
up
ancy
Pat
tern
s
Pea
k lig
hti
ng
dim
min
g
Co
olin
g Se
tpo
int
Day
ligh
tin
g
Red
uce
d L
PD
Low
er S
HG
C G
lazi
ng
Fan
Sys
tem
Po
wer
Imp
rove
d C
oo
ling
EER
Incr
ease
d W
WR
HP
/VR
F h
eati
ng
Elec
tric
reh
eat
coils
Ave
rage
sav
ings
pe
rce
nta
ge
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Current Cost Future Cost Current Carbon Future Carbon Site BTU
Hourly Profile with Ice Storage
Shaping Consumption to Match Renewable Generation
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Potential Building Decarbonization Measures
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Heat Pumps
▪ High efficiency air source heat pumps
▪ High efficiency ground coupled heat pumps
VRF Systems
▪ VRF system
Water Heating
▪ Heat pump water heater
Kitchen Equipment
▪ Electric fryer▪ Electric ovens▪ Electric griddle
Business Confidential - Willdan
Energy efficiency and carbon reductions for the future grid
Beyond Energy Efficiency
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▪ Targeting energy efficiency for time and location of greatest impact
▪ Brooklyn Queens Demand Management Program
▪ Substantial redevelopment of Brooklyn and Queens driving increased load
▪ Targeted energy efficiency provided 5x more demand reduction per fixture
▪ Increased peak coincidence factor from 8% to 23%
Load Shaping
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▪ EV Roadmaps and Business Plans
▪ Fleet Conversion Feasibility
▪ Integration with electrification + Smart City strategy + Microgrids
▪ Grid Impact Studies
▪ Load Growth Forecasting
▪ Traffic Studies
▪ GIS Mapping
▪ Fleet Assessment and Route Modeling
Electric Vehicles – Impact on the Grid
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2030 Forecast
Looking into the future
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▪ Planning and designing microgrids
▪ Solar PV
▪ Wind
▪ Cogeneration
▪ Fuel cells
▪ Microturbines
▪ Storage
▪ Islanding
Distributed Energy and Microgrids
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ExampleCulver City microgrid: 1.7 MW PV, 800 kW/1,600 kWh Energy Storage and EE for net zero resilient microgrid
The Future
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Are smart energy districts the future?
Bronzeville Smart Energy District
Off-grid streetlights (emerging technology)
Solar powered EV charging station
Hybrid DC/AC nanogridon the roof of IIT Gym
Commercial buildings of the future?
Commercial Grid Interactive Building
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Closing Thoughts
▪ Building stock turns over slowlyabout 2% per year
▪ Shape and shift may require different mechanical systems, hard to retrofit
▪ Buildings could potentially take excess generation and reduce load during high net load times
▪ System peak kW and kWh based programs do not have enough nuance
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Thank YouJason Steinbock, PE, BEMP, LEED [email protected]