energy development in southern africa - diva portal274396/fulltext01.pdfenergy, environment and...

AND D 1E;"VELOPME d

A-FRTCA

Energy Development in Southern Africa SADCC Country Studies, Part II

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT I N AFRICA 4

ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT I N SOUTHERN A F R I C A

SADCC COUNTRY S T U D I E S P A R T I 1

Edited by

Phi1 O'Keefe and Barry Munslow

Pub1 ished by

THE BEIJER INSTITUTE The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stockholm, Sweden

THE SCANDINAVIAN INSTITUTE OF AFRICAN STUDIES Uppsal a , Sweden

The s e r i e s "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa" i s pub- l i shed j o i n t l y by the Beijer I n s t i t u t e and the Scandinavian I n s t i - t u t e of African Studies , with f inancia l support from the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA). This book, together with a s e r i e s of companion v01 umes, repor ts on s tudies of Energy and Development in the SADCC countries jo in t ly undertaken by the SADCC Energy Sector and the various member s t a t e s of SADCC in collabora- t ion with the Beijer Ins t i tu t e .

ISSN 0281-8515 ISBN 91-7106-231-9

O The Beijer I n s t i t u t e and the Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e of African Studies 1984

Printed in Sweden by Bohusl aningens A B , Uddeval l a 1984

FOREWORD

T h i s Volume c o n t a i n s t h e second p a r t o f a s e r i e s o f n i n e ene rgy

c o u n t r y s t u d i e s , p r e p a r e d by t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e as background

m a t e r i a l f o r t h e SADCC Reg iona l Energy Seminar i n Harare , December

1982. I wou ld l i k e t o t h a n k t h e g roup o f a u t h o r s most warmly f o r

t h e i r c o n t r i b u t i o n s . T h e i r work wou ld n o t have been p o s s i b l e

w i t h o u t t h e k i n d c o o p e r a t i o n o f many M i n i s t r i e s and a u t h o r i t i e s

conce rned w i t h ene rgy i n t h e n i n e SADCC c o u n t r i e s . I am a l s o

p l e a s e d t o t h a n k P r o f e s s o r Ph i1 O 'Kee fe and D r B a r r y Munslow f o r

e d i t i n g t h i s Volume and my Deputy D i r e c t o r , D r L a r s K r i s t o f e r s o n ,

f o r h i s i n v o l v e m e n t i n t h e p r e p a r a t o r y work needed t h r o u g h o u t t h e

SADCC Energy P r o j e c t . F i n a l l y , I g r a t e f u l l y acknowledge t h e

f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t o f SIDA f o r t h e f i e l d work , t h e Seminar and t h e

p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s Volume.

Gordon T. Goodman

September 1984

ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

SADCC COUNTRY STUDIES PART I 1

CONTENTS

FOREWORD

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF FIGURES

INTRODUCTION P h i 1 0' Keefe and Barry Munslow

2 . MOZAMBIQUE Barry Munsl ow

2. SWAZILAND Barry Munsl ow

3, TANZANIA K e i t h Openshaw

4. ZAMBIA Paul Susman

5. ZIMBABWE Richard Hosier

TABLES

Mozambique Page

D i s t r i b u t i o n o f GDP . . . . . . . . . . Marke ted A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t i o n . . . Rate Of Change I n Gross Domest ic P r o d u c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O p e r a t i n g Budget 1977-80 . . . . . . . Bal ance Of Payments . . . . . . . . . . Energy Demand By Sec to r F o r 1980 . . . End Use Fue l Consumption Fo r 1980 . . . Summary R e p o r t Of Fue l Consumption . . D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumption f o r 2000 . . End-Use Fue l Requi rements o f Fuelwood . Wood Supp ly And Demand By P r o v i n c e . . Area o f N a t u r a l Woody V e g e t a t i o n E s t i m a t e d A t The End Of 1980 . . . . . Growing S tock E s t i m a t e . . . . . . . . S tock O f Wood E s t i m a t e s . . . . . . . . End-Use Fue l Requirements Of Charcoa l . End-Use Fue l Requi rements O f

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . E l e c t r i c i t y 1978 R e f i n e r y P r o d u c t i o n F i g u r e s . . .

Swazi l and p-

Main Economic I n d i c a t o r s . . . . . . . Gross Domest ic P r o d u c t By Economic A c t i v i t y F o r 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . Fuel Consumption By S e c t o r . . . . . . D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumption Of Energy F o r 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy Demand By Sec to r . . . . . . . . End-Use Fue l Consumption F o r 1980 . . . End-Use Fuel Requirements : Pe t ro leum Produc ts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . End-Use Fue l Requi rements : Fuelwood . . N e t Resource Requirements . . . . . . . N a t i o n a l Summary Of End-Use Fuel Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Man-Made F o r e s t Area By Spec ies . . . . I n d u s t r i a1 Wood H a r v e s t i n g And Mi l l i ng

R e p o r t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . End-Use Fue l Requi rements : I n d u s t r i a l Wood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tree Spec ies Used By The Rura l

. . . P o p u l a t i o n F o r Fuelwood And Po les . . . . . . . . . E l e c t r i c a l Genera t i on

End-Use Fue l Requi rements : E l e c t r i c i t y . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Tanzania

Tanzania 1982: Land Area By V e g e t a t i o n Type And Land Use . . . . . . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption o f Energy By Type And End-Use . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: Es t ima ted Consumption Of Wood Produc ts And A g r i c u l t u r a l Res idues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of Biomass By End-User . . . . . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: Es t ima ted Consumption O f Biomass By End-Use . . . . . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d Growing Stock And Y i e l d Of Above Ground Woody Biomass By V e g e t a t i o n Type . . . . . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: Es t ima ted Growing Stock And Y i e l d Of Above Ground Woody Biomass By Region Toge the r W i th Regiona l E s t i m a t e s Of Consumption . . . . . . . Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d Crop P r o d u c t i o n , Animal Numbers, Crop Res idues And Dung P r o d u c t i o n . . . . . Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d Use O f Commerci a1 And Non-Commercial Fue l s By

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S e c t o r Tanzania 1980-2000: P resen t Consumption O f Energy W i t h Fo recas ts To The Year 2000 By S e c t o r . . . . . . . . . . . . Tanzania 2000: F o r e c a s t Of Energy Consumption By Power Source W i t h An E s t i m a t e Of Energy Sav ing . . . . . . . Tanzania 2000: P o s s i b l e Demand Fo r Pe t ro leum Produc ts And Source Of Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Appendix 3 .1 Tanzania 1980: Aggregate Energy

Appendix 3 .2

Appendi X 3.3A

Append ix 3 .38

Append ix 3.4A

Appendi X 3 .48

Append ix 3 .5

Append ix 3.6A

Appendi X 3.6B

Append ix 3 .7

Append ix 3 . 8

Append ix 3 . 9

Append ix 3 .10

. . . . . . . . . . . . Ba lance Tanzan ia 1980: D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumption By S e c t o r , End-Use And Energy Source . . . . . . . Tanzan ia 1980: E s t i m a t e d Power Source, Generated Energy, D i s t r i b u t i o n Losses And Sa les Of

. . . . . . . . . . E l e c t r i c i t y Tanzan ia : E s t i m a t e d Medium Term E l e c t r i c a l P o t e n t i a l From

. . . . I n d i g e n o u s Power Sources Tanzan ia 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of Woodfuel And A g r i c u l t u r a l Res idue By

. . . . . . . . . . . . End-User Tanzan ia 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumption Of B i omass By Use

. . . . . . . . . . . . A c t i v i t y Tanzan ia 1980: V e g e t a t i o n Cover

. . . . . . . . . . . By Region Tanzan ia 1980: E s t i m a t e Of T o t a l Above Ground Woody Biomass By V e g e t a t i o n Type And Region P l u s E s t i m a t e d Annual Y i e l d And 1980 Consumption Of Wood P r o d u c t s . . Tanzan ia 1980: Area Of Cash Crop And F o r e s t P1 a n t a t i o n s By

. . . . . . . . . . . . . Region Tanzan ia 2000: F o r e c a s t O f Energy Consumption By S e c t o r And Power Source . . . . . . . . . . Tanzan ia 2000: E s t i m a t e d Sav ing Of Energy By I n c r e a s e d E f f i c i e n c y . . . . . . . . . . . Tanzan ia 2000: P o s s i b l e Demand F o r Pe t ro leum P r o d u c t s And Source Of Supp l y . . . . . . . . Tanzan ia 2000: P o s s i b l e E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n P a t t e r n .

Zamb i a

4 . 1 Demographic/Economic I n d i c a t o r s . . . . 4.2 Gross Domes t i c P r o d u c t By K i n d Of

Economic A c t i v i t y I n P r o d u c e r ' s Va lues A t C o n s t a n t 1970 P r i c e s . . . . . . . .

Percen tage Uses O f V a r i o u s Energy Sources By Zambian Households . . . . . 142 Househo ld E x p e n d i t u r e (ZK) On Househo ld Energy Use And Average Income F o r Month . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 E s t i m a t e s O f Annual Fuelwood Consumption F o r Househo ld Use . . . . . 145 E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n . . . . . . . . . 151 Coal Demand By S e c t o r s . . . . . . . . 153 Sources And Uses O f O i l 1975/76 - 1980/81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 Zambia N a t i o n a l Energy L i m i t e d . D e t a i l S

O f Sp i ked Crude O i l I m p o r t s . . . . . . 156 I n d u s t r y Sa les By M a r k e t Ca tego ry . . . 158 Domest ic P e t r o l e u m Produc ts M a r k e t Consumption - 1980/81 . . . . . . . . . 159 Domest ic P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t M a r k e t Devel opment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 Fue l Consumption I n Mines . . . . . . . 161 P e t r o l e u m F u e l s I n d u s t r y F o r e c a s t s . . 163 Summary R e p o r t O f Fue l Consumption I n Zambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 D e t a i l e d F u e l Consumption F o r 1980 . . 167 Agg rega te Energy Ba lance 1980-81 . . . 168

Zimbabwe

P o p u l a t i o n E s t i m a t e s - December 31, 1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 174 GDP A t F a c t o r Cos t By I n d u s t r y O f O r i g i n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 Average Compound Growth Rates F o r 1965-1970, 1970-1975, 1975-1980 . . . . 177 Energy Consumption F o r Zimbabwe 1980 . 179 R u r a l Energy Survey: Average Fue l Consumption F o r Households U s i n g Fue l . 182 Urban Energy Survey: Average Fue l Consumption F o r Households U s i n g Fue l . 184 A g r i c u l t u r a ! S e c t o r S t a t i s t i c s . . . . 191 C a l c u l a t i o n O f Changes I n V e g e t a t i o n Cover Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 Land C l a s s i f i c a t i o n O f I n d i g e n o u s Wood? ands, Exc l u d i rig Commerci a1 Farms . 195 E s t i m a t e d P r o d u c t i o n O f I n d i g e n o u s Woodlands I n Communal Areas . . . . . . 197 Coal Resources And Reserves . . . . . . 198

5.12 Coal P r o d u c t i o n : 1980 . . . . . . . . . 200 5.13 Coal E x p o r t s : 1980 . . . . . . . . . . 201 5.14 I m p o r t a t i o n Of Pe t ro leum F u e l s 1980 . . 203 5.15 E l e c t r i c a l Genera t i on C a p a c i t y 1980 . . 205 5.16 E l e c t r i c i t y Supply 1980 . . . . . . . . 2 06 5.17 P1 anned New E l e c t r i c a l I n s t a l l a t i o n s . 207

Appendix 5 . 1 Appendix 5.2 Appendix 5 .3 Appendix 5.4 Appendix 5.5 Appendix 5.6 Appendix 5 .7 Appendix 5 .8

P o p u l a t i o n : December 31, 1980 . 212 Economic Measures 1980 . . . . . 2 13 E l e c t r i c Genera t i on C a p a c i t y . . 214 E l e c t r i c i t y Supply : 1980 . . . . 215 C o n t r o l T o t a l s - P r i m a r y F u e l s . 216 Convers ion F a c t o r s Used . . . . 2 17 T o t a l Fue l Consumption . . . . . 218 End-Use S p e c i f i c a t i o n s . . . . . 219

FIGURES

Page

1.1 Fuelwood S i t u a t i o n I n Mozambique By P r o v i n c e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 7

1 . 2 Coa l , O i ! and Gas D e p o s i t s I n Mozambique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6

1 . 3 T r a n s m i s s i o n L i n e s I n Mozambique: 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 7

2 . 1 Swaz i l and : T imber And Eco logy . . . . . 63

4 .1 Zambia: Areas O f Chi temane A g r i c u l t u r e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148

. . . . . . . . 4 .2 Zambia: Miombo Wood1 and 149

INTRODUCTION

Energy p r o v i s i o n i s v i t a l t o e v e r y deve l opment e f f o r t ; w i t h o u t i t t h e r e can he no i n c r e a s e d i n d u s t r i a l o r a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n , and no improvement i n t h e b a s i c l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . An awareness o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s t u d y i n g e n e r g y as a v i t a l p a r t o f t h e developrnent p rocess emerged under t h e dua l impetus o f t h e o i l p r i c e r i s e s o f t h e e a r l y 1970s and t h e g r o w i n g s h o r t a g e b e i n g e x p e r i e n c e d o f t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l S upon w h i c h r u r a l p r o d u c e r s have r e l i e d i n many a reas . Bo th conce rns p r o v i d e t h e e s s e n t i a l themes r u n n i n g t h r o u g h t h i s wo rk . These two volumes f u r n i s h an i n - d e p t h a n a l y s i s and o v e r v i e w o f each o f t h e n i n e c o u n t r i e s w h i c h t o g e t h e r compr i se t h e Sou the rn A f r i c a n Development C o o r d i n a t i o n Conference. The r e s e a r c h was c a r r i e d o u t under t h e a u s p i c e s o f t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e o f t h e Royal Swedish Academy o f Sc iences a t t h e r e q u e s t o f t h e SADCC c o u n t r i e s i n 1982.

These c o u n t r y case s t u d i e s p r o v i d e d t h e background d a t a f o r t h e summary volume b e i n g p u b l i s h e d i n p a r a l l e l e n t i t l e d SADCC: Energy and Pevelopment t o t h e Year 2000, w h i c h draws t o g e t h e r a l l o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y d a t a t o p roduce an agg rega te r e g i o n a l ene rgy p i c t u r e and makes p r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e y e a r 2000. W h i l s t t h e c o u n t r y case s t u d i e s a r e v a l u a b l e i n t h e i r own r i g h t , s e e k i n g as t h e y do t o p r o v i d e a breakdown o f ene rgy use i n each economy, t h e r e a d e r i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e r e g i o n a l p i c t u r e i s r e f e r r e d t o t h e accompanying summary v o l u m e . ( i )

What u n i f i e s t h e approach o f t h e a u t h o r s o f t hese i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r y s t u d i e s i s a common methodo logy o f e s t a b l i s h i n g n a t i o n a l ene rgy b a l a n c e s f r o m a demand p e r s p e c t i v e . T h i s emphasis on an end-use approach t o ene rgy i s an i m p o r t a n t one.

N a t i o n a l ene rgy accoun ts a r e f r e q u e n t l y b u i l t on a h i g h l y agg rega ted b a s i s . They a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r m a j o r sou rces o f commerc ia l f u e l S, hyd roca rbons and e l e c t r i c i t y , b u t t h e o r i e n t a t i o n i s t owards s u p p l y i s s u e s . S i n c e t h e m a j o r i n s t i t u t i o n s f o r p l a n n i n g , a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , p r o d u c t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n have been e s t a b l i s h e d f o r many y e a r s and a r e c r i t i c a l l y f ocused on s u p p l y i s s u e s , t h i s s i t u a t i o n i s n o t unexpected. I f , however, d a t a f r o m these i n s t i t u t i o n s i s u t i l i s e d t o b u i l d ene rgy accoun ts , t w o m a j o r prob lems emerge, F i r s t , i t i s i m p o s s i b l e t o assess t h e demand f o r commerc ia l f u e l s by end-use and, consequent1 y , i t i s i rnpossi b l e t o d e s i g n c o n s e r v a t i o n i n i t i a t i v e s . Second1 y, because m a j o r i n s t i t u t i o n s o n l y dea l w i t h commerc ia l f u e l s , t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r w h i c h dominates t h e ene rgy economies o f A f r i c a i s l e f t un reco rded . I n o r d e r t o a v o i d t h e o b v i o u s prob!ems a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o n v e n t i o n a l s u p p l y a n a l y s i s , each r e s e a r c h e r was r e q u e s t e d t o a d o p t a demand approach t o t h e p rob lem o f ene rgy a c c o u n t i n g .

T h i s demand approach c l e a r l y demons t ra ted t h e impor tance o f t r a d i t i o n a l ene rgy consumpt ion i n t h e o v e r a l l ene rgy ba lance . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r o f r u r a l househo ld demand domi n a t e s t h e e n e r g y accoun ts f r e q u e n t 1 y d w a r f i n g t h e t o t a l commerc ia l s e c t o r . The emphasis on r u r a l househo ld demand se rves t h r e e u s e f u l f u n c t i o n s namely :

1. I t a l l o w s p r o j e c t i o n s o f f u t u r e e n e r g y consumpt ion t o be p r o j e c t e d f r o m a demographic base o f househo ld f o r m a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n p l u c k i n g some a r b i t r a r y economic i n d i c a t o r o u t o f c o n t e x t :

2 . I t f o c u s e s a t t e n t i o n on t h e b i o l o g i c a l r e s o u r c e s o f a c o u n t r y wh i ch , g i v e n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f a g r i c u l t u r e t o t h e deve lopment s t r a t e g y o f SADCC member s t a t e s , i s t h e c r u c i a l a rea f o r deve lopment i n i t i a t i v e s :

3 . I t p1 aces a p p r o p r i a t e a t t e n t i o n on t h e c r i t i c a l r o l e o f women i n o b t a i n i n g f u e l , and o t h e r b a s i c needs, i n m a i n t a i n i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n and r e p r o d u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s o f peasan t househo lds .

As such, i t i s a complementary a n a l y s i s t h a t mus t be p l a c e d a l o n g s i d e s u p p l y d a t a .

A f o u r t h volume has a l s o emerged o u t o f t h e r e s e a r c h . ( 2 ) T h i s was p roduced b y a q roup w o r k i n q under P r o f e s s o r R i c h a r d Peet, and i s e n t i t l e d ~ a n u f a c t u r i n ~ ~ n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC C o u n t r i e s .

P h i l O 'Kee fe and B a r r y Munslow

REFERENCES

1. C. Simoes (Ed), SADCC: Energy and Development t o t h e Year 2000, i n Energy, 3 SADCC Energy Sector , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t - i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S tud ies 1984.

2. R . Peet, Manufac tu r ing I n d u s t r y and Economic Development i n t h e SADCC Countr ies, i n tnergy, Environment and Development i n A f r i c a Vo1.5. SADCC Energy Sector , i n c o l l a b o r a t i o n w i t h t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e and t h e Scandinavian I n s t i t u t e o f A f r i c a n S tud ies , 1984.

C H A P T E R 1

M O Z A M B I Q U E

5 Y

B a r r y Muns l ow

INTRODUCTION

Energy p l a y s a v i t a l r o l e i n t h e deve lopment p rocess , s u p p l y i n g p e o p l e ' s needs and f u e l l i n g t h e g r o w t h o f t h e economy. I n t h e b a t t l e a g a i n s t underdeve lopment , ene rgy c o n s i d e r a t i o n s mus t have a h i g h p r i o r i t y and t h e r e f o r e f i g u r e p r o m i n e n t l y i n t h e n a t i o n a l p l a n n i n g e f f o r t . The pu rpose o f t h i s c h a p t e r , and i n d e e d o f t h e volumes as a who le , i s t o make a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h i s end. Eve ry t y p e o f economic a c t i v i t y uses ene rgy and i t i s necessa ry t o know t h e end-use r e q u i r e m e n t s o f e v e r y s e c t o r i n t h e economy, n o t o n l y t o a r r i v e a t a c o n c l u s i o n c o n c e r n i n g how much t o t a l e n e r g y i s needed, b u t a l s o t o ensu re t h a t g r o w t h and deve lopment i n each s e c t o r w i l l n o t be h i n d e r e d b y a s h o r t a g e o f t h e necessa ry ene rgy i n p u t s .

We b e g i n b y p r o v i d i n g a b r i e f o v e r v i e w o f t h e economy and p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h as t h e s e w i l l i n e v i t ab1 y be i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t s o f f u t u r e ene rgy needs. T h i s w i l l p r o v i d e a background f o r t h e subsequent a n a l y s i s . There t h e n f o l l o w s a s e c t i o n on t h e e x i s t i n g demand f o r e n e r g y i n t h e economy. Guaran tee ing t h e b a s i c ene rgy needs o f t h e peop le and e v e r y s e c t o r o f t h e economy i s a fundamenta l a im o f t h e government.

I n a t h i r d s e c t i o n we go on t o a n a l y s e e n e r g y s u p p l y and see wha t t h e p a t t e r n o f f u t u r e ene rgy s u p p l i e s m i g h t be.

I n a f o u r t h and f i n a l s e c t i o n we w i l l draw some c o n c l u s i o n s and make some recommendat ions, s u g g e s t i n g c e r t a i n s t e p s w h i c h m i g h t c o n c r e t e l y be t a k e n t o meet t h e n a t i o n a l and a l s o r e g i o n a l needs f o r e n e r g y p o l i c y .

THE ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

The P e o p l e ' s Republ i c o f Mozambique has a l and a r e a o f 799,380 square kms and sha res a common f r o n t i e r w i t h f i v e SADCC member s t a t e s , Tanzan ia , Malawi , Zambia, Zimbabwe and Swaz i l and, i n a d d i t i o n t o h a v i q g Sou th A f r i c a on t h e sou the rnmos t b o r d e r . I t had a p o p u l a t i o n o f 12 .13 m i l l i o n i n 1980, g r o w i n g a t 2 . 8 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y , and 87 .8 p e r c e n t o f t h e p e o p l e s t i l l l i v e i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s .

A g r i c u l t u r a l l y t h e c o u n t r y has g r e a t p o t e n t i a l w i t h e l e v e n m a j o r r i v e r s f l o w i n g w e s t t o e a s t and w i t h l e s s t h a n a t h i r d o f t h e c u l t i v a b l e l a n d p r e s e n t l y i n use. Huge hydropower r e s o u r c e s a r e a v a i l a b l e a l o n g w i t h a r e 1 a t i v e l y un tapped m i n e r a l p o t e n t i a l . Coal i s a l r e a d y b e i n g mined, l a r g e r e s e r v e s o f gas e x i s t and o i l p r o s p e c t i n g was renewed i n 1981 p r o d u c i n g some encou rag ing e a r l y s i g n s i n t h e n o r t h w e s t e r n p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y . Mozambique possesses 2,470 k i l o m e t r e s o f c o a s t l i n e and t h e f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l u n d o u b t e d l y p1 ay a c o n s i d e r a b l e r o l e i n f u t u r e deve lopment .

The c o ~ l n ' c r y o n l y became i n d e p e n d e n t i n 1975 a f t e r e x p e r i e n c i n g a l m o s t a c e n t u r y o f Po r tuguese c o l o n i a1 r u l e , c h a r a c t e r i s e d b y ex t reme l a b o u r e x p l o i t a t i o n and p o l i t i c a l r e p r e s s i o n . The e c o n o m i c a l l y backward n a t u r e o f t h e c o l o n i a l power and t h e g r o w i n g s t r e n g t h o f South A f r i c a a t t h e c e n t r e o f t h e r e g ~ o n a l sub- sys tem were t h e dominan t i n f l u e n c e s shap ing t h e deve lopment o f Mozambique's economy, p r o d u c i n g mass ive d i s t o r t i o n s . Economical l y t h e c o u n t r y f e l l i n t o t h r e e c l e a r l y d e f i n e d zones, i n t h e n o r t h peasan t cash c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , i n t h e c e n t r e p l a n t a t i o n p r o d u c t i o n , b o t h gea red t o t h e e x p o r t market , and t h e s o u t h was a r e s e r v e army o f l a b o u r f o r t h e South A f r i c a n m ines . I n one sense t h e economy was a l r e a d y gea red towards r e g i o n a l r n t e g r a t i o n , p r o v i d i n g as i t does, r a i l w a y and p o r t f a c i l i t i e s f o r t h e i n t e r ~ o r c o u n t r i e s , and t h e a im o f t h e SADCC i s t o r e o r i e n t a t e t h a t i n t e g r a t i o n t o l e s s e n dependence on South A f r i c a and i n c r e a s e t h e l i n k s w i t h o t h e r s t a t e s o f t h e r e g i o n .

Because o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l l e g a c y o f Mozambique's dependence on South A f r i c a , p r o v i d i n g m i g r a n t l a b o u r t o t h e m ~ n e s , t r a n s i t passage t o t h e T r a n s v a a l , t o u r i s t r e s o r t s , h y d r o - e l e c t r i c ene rgy f r o m Cahora Bassa* dam and marke ts f o r South A f r i c a ' s e x p o r t s - Mozambique's own e f f o r t s t o s l o w l y l e s s e n i t s r e l i a n c e on these economic t i e s can be g r e a t l y a i d e d by r e g i o n a l and o u t s i d e s u p p o r t . A t the same t ime , t h e c o u n t r y i s n o t so enmeshed w i t h South A f r i c a t h a t i t i s unab le t o s e r ~ o u s l y a c h i e v e t h i s l e s s e n i n g o f dependence - i t i s a v i a b l e p r o p o s i t i o n t h e r e f o r e .

When a n a l y s i n g t h e economy i n d e t a i l , t h e r e i s t h e prob lem o f a s h o r t a g e o f documen ta t i on and a 1 ack o f comprehens ive and u p - t o - d a t e s t a t i s t i c s . From t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e however ( w h i c h s h o u l d be t r e a t e d w i t h c a u t i o n b e i n g c o m p i l e d f r o m a v a r 7 e t y o f d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s ) , some t r e n d s do become a p p a r e n t as shown i n ,

Tab le 1.1. A g r i c u l t u r e and s e r v i c e s accoun t f o r t h e v a s t b u l k o f t h e Gross Domest ic P r o d u c t .

Between 1974 and 1977 t h e economy i n gene ra l and i n d u s t r y i n p a r t i c u l a r wen t t h r o u g h a c r i s i s p e r i o d , b u t f r o m 1977 i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n began t o p i c k up once aga in , and by 1980 had a lmos t doub led i t s sha re o f GDP ( a t 10 p e r c e n t ) compared w i t h t h e p o s i t i o n i n 1977. A g r ~ c u l t u r e rema ins o f v i t a l impo r tance , as i t i n v o l v e s a l m o s t 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n and produces t h e bl;!k o f e x p o r t s . The mos t r e c e n t f i g u r e s f o r marke ted p r o d u c t i o n have been e n c o u r a g i n g b u t t h e r e i s c l e a r 1 y a l o n g way s t i l l t o go b e f o r e r e c o v e r y i s comp le te and t h e economy moves ahead ( see

Prob ems on t h e s t a t e f a r m complex i n Gaza accounted f o r t h e d i s a s t r o u s r i c e h a r v e s t i n 1981. A c o m b i n a t i o n o f f a c t o r s , i n c l u d i n g d r o u g h t , l e d t o an o v e r a l l d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n i n 1982/3 . The peasan t s e c t o r i s s t i l l n o t m a r k e t i n g i t s p o t e n t i a l , g i v e n a l a c k o f goods t o purchase, some u n c e r t a i n t y o v e r p r i c i n g p o l i c y , and a s e r i e s o f d r o u g h t s and f l o o d s a f f e c t i n g t h e c o u n t r y e v e r y y e a r s i r c e independence.

* Po r tusuese spe l 'l i n g .

TABLE 1.1

D i s t r i b u t i o n Of GDP er c e n t )

Year A g r i c u l t u r e l n d u s t r y S e r v i c e s

Sot i rce: Compi 1 ed f r o m t h e UNCTAD Handbook arc? .-p Worl d Devel opnen t R e p o r t s f o r t h e r e l e v a n t y e a r s .

TABLE 1 .2

Marke ted A g r i c u l t u r a l P r o d u c t i o n ( i n '000 t o n s )

P r o d u c t 1980 1981

C o t t o n Maize Copra Tea PO t a t o e s Beans C i t r u s F r u i t Vege tab les R i c e

Source: D i r e c c a o Nac iona l de P1 ano, 1982.

No a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t e s e x i s t c o n c e r n i n g s u b s i s t e n c e p r o d u c t i o n . T h i s undoubted1 y i n c r e a s e d i n t h e immediate pos t - i ndependence p e r i o d as c o m m e r c i a l i s a t i o n and d i s t r i b u t i o n ne tworks c o l l a p s e d , hence more was consumed and l e s s was marke ted . However by t h e e a r l y 19805, i n some a reas , bad d r o u g h t and a l a c k o f a g r i c u l t u r a l i n p u t s p l u s d i s r u p t i o n s caused b y South A f r i c a n backed r e b e l bands had c r e a t e d hunger i n c e r t a i n r u r a l a reas hence peasan t s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y was a t r i s k .

I n 1973 t h e Gross N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t was e s t i m a t e d t o be US $2,900 m i l l i o n o r $330 p e r c a p i t a . D u r i n g t h e c r i s i s p e r i o d , w i t h t h e mass exodus o f s e t t l e r s and w idesp read economic sabotage, GDP f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y , b u t t h e n began t o p i c k up a g a i n as Tab le 1 . 3 shows.

Over t h e decade o f t h e 1970s, i n f l a t i o n r a n a t abou t 11 p e r c e n t p e r annum. B u t a f t e r independence t h e F r e l i m o government made e v e r y e f f o r t t o keep down t h e p r i c e o f b a s i c commodi t ies t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e government p r o v i d e d f r e e n a t i o n a l i sed e d u c a t i o n and hea l t h s e r v i c e s . income i n e q u a l i t y was c e r t a i n l y d i m i n i s h e d and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s o c i a l s e r v i c e s t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n improved a t an i m p r e s s i v e l e v e l ( f o r e d u c a t i o n and h e a l t h s e r v i c e e x p e n d i t u r e see T a b l e 1 . 4 ) . As Tab le 1 . 4 shows, government e x p e n d i t u r e i n t o t a l doub led between 1977 and 1981.

The P e o p l e ' s R e p u b l i c o f Mozambique has l a i d down t h e g u i d e l i n e s f o r i t s deve lopment t o 1990 i n t h e I n d i c a t i v e P e r s p e c t i v e P l a n . T h i s has s e t as i t s a m b i t i o u s t a r g e t t h e d e f e a t o f underdeve lopment i n t h e 1980s. Most o f t h e a v a i l a b l e i n v e s t m e n t (85 p e r c e n t ) w i l l be c h a n n e l l e d i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g programmes:

1. t r a n s f o r m i n g t h e r u r a l a reas, w i t h t h e f o r m a t i o n c f c c - o p e r a t i v e s and communal v i l l a g e s ;

2 . c r e a t i n g a heavy i n d u s t r i a l base;

3 . d e v e l o p i n g arid expand ing t h e n a t i o n a i i s e d fa rm ing s e c t o r ;

4 . h a v i nc an a c c e l e r a t e d marpower and e d u c a t i o n a l programme.

The f i r s t phase o f t h e p l a n alms t o max imise c r o p p r o d u c t i o n f o r e x p o r t ; r educe i m p o r t s , e s p e c i a l l y o f f o o d p r o d u c t s ; encourage p r o s p e c t i n g t o p r o v i d e raw m a t e r i a l s f o r heavy i n d u s t r y and e x p o r t s ; m i n i m i z e t h e consumpt ion o f l i q u i d f u e l s ; gua ran tee t h a t a nurrber o f s p e c i f f e d a g r i c u l t u r a l , i n d u s t r i a l , c o n s t r u c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t p r o j e c t s a r e comple ted; and move ahead w i t h t h e f o r m a t i o n o f s k i l l e d t e c h r i c a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l w o r k e r s . I n t h e . - ene rgy f i e l d , gas, o i ; , c o a l and e l e c t r i c i t y p r o j e c t s a l l have a h i g h p r i o r i t y a l o n g w i t h m i n e r a l e x p l o r a t i o n t o se rve t h e needs o f heavy i n d u s t r y . Two g i a n t p r o j e c t s a r e env i saged : one, t h e deve lopment o f an i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r y ; and two, an a lum in ium s m e l t e r , p o s s i b l y u s i n g e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m t h e Cahora Bassa dam.

The p l a n has l a i d o u t t h e b road deve lopment s t r a -t e g y and i t s success depends upon how w e l l t h e i n h e r i t e d prob lems and on- go ing d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e t a c k l e d . W h i l s t p o s s e s s i n g enormous p o t e n t i a l i n a g r i c u l t u r e , m i n e r a l s and f i s h i n g , t h e c o u n t r y ' s economy has s u f f e r e d g r e a t l y f r o m t h e d e f o r m a t i o n s engendered b y t h e c o l o n t a l e r a . An a n t i - e d u c a t i o n a l programme f o r A f r i c a n s and a s t r i c t r a c i a l d ~ v i s i o n o f l a b o u r l e f t a l e g a c y o f i l l i t e r a c y and a p a u c i t y o f s k i l l e d manager i a l and s c i e r ~ t i f i c pe rsonne l f o l !owing t h e exodus o f s e t t l e r s a t t h e t i m e o f independence. The f i r s t m a j o r c o n s t r a i n t , t h e r e f o r e , i s t h i s s e r i o u s b o t t l e n e c k caused by t h e l a c k o f s k i l l e d p e r s o n n e l .

1-he economy n e v e r orod l iced a l a r g e i n t e r n a l s u r p l u s f r o m p r o d u c t i o n , r e l y i n g on t h e e x p o r t o f l a b o u r , t r a n s i t f e e s and t o u r i s t revenues t o make up t h e d e f i c f t on i t s v i s i b l e t r a d e b a l a n c e . I n d u s t r y was gea red towards p r i m a r y p r o c e s s i n g and t h e p r o d d c t i o n o f l u x d r y goods Fo r t h e s e t t l e r m a r k e t . The p rocess o f r e s t r u c t u r i n g t h e economy i s b e i n g s lowed down by t h i s l a c k o f an i n t e r n a l l y g e n e r a t e d s u r p l u s and t h e r e i s a c o n t i n u i n g b a l a n c e o f payments d e f i c i t . blence a f u r t h e r s e r i o u s c o n s t r a i n t i s t o f i n d t h e v e r y h i g h l e v e l s o f i nves . tn~en t ~ e c e s s a r y t o a t t a i n t h e t a r g e t s s e t b y t h e Ten-Year ?!an.

The c o u n t r y ' s m o s t i m p o r t a n t e x p o r t s a r e cashew n u t s , c rus ta ,ceans, suga r and i t s b y - p r o d u c t s , t e a and c o t t o n . K i s t o r i c a l l y , i n v i s i b l e ea r r i i ngs f r o m m i g r a n t l a b o u r r e m i t t a n c e s and f e e s f o r t r a n s i t t r a f f i c have made up t h e t r a d e d e f i c i t . Tbie s i t u a t i o n changed d r a m a t i c a l l y a f t e r 1377 when South A f r i c a s e v e r s l y reduced i t s tlozarli:ican l a b o u r q u o t a f o r t h e mines and p a i d t h e Mozambican government i n g o l d v a l u e d a t t h e f r e e m a r k e t r a t e . E a r l i e r i t was p a i d i n g a l d v a l u e d a t t h e mgch l o v e r

o f f i c i a l r a t e w h i c h e n a b l e d t h e Mozambican government t o s e l l t h e g o l d on t h e f r e e m a r k e t and t h e r e b y g a i n s u b s t a n t i a l l y . The c l o s u r e o f t h e Zimbabwe b o r d e r f r o m 1976 t o t h e b e g i n n i n g o f 1980, i n compl i a n c e w i t h U n i t e d N a t i o n s s a n c t i o n s p01 i c y , a l s o had a s e r i o u s e f f e c t on r e d u c i n g f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g s . The d e c l i n e i n p r o d u c t i o n g e n e r a l l y and w o r s e n i n g terms o f t r a d e a l l c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e seve re l i q u i d i t y p r e s s u r e s . A c c o r d i n g t o UN f i g u r e s , t o t a l f o r e i g n d e b t was US $244 m i l l i o n a t t h e end o f 1978.

From 1978 onwards, t h e b a l a n c e o f payments s i t u a t i o n has grown more d i f f i c u l t . The mos t r e c e n t f i g u r e s i l l u s t r a t e t h i s ( see T a b l e 1 . 5 ) . Even p r i o r t o independence, e v e r y y e a r saw a s t e a d i l y d e t e r i o r a t i n g ba lance o f payments d e f i c i t so t h i s has a l s o been t h e l o n g t e r m t r e n d .

TABLE 1 .5

Ba lance O f Payments (US $ )

T o t a l E x p o r t s 338 385 T o t a l I m p o r t s 663 737 D e f i c i t 325 353

Ba l ance o f payments d e f i c i t s have e s s e n t i a1 l y been compensated by a i d i n f l o w s i n r e c e n t yea rs , w i t h a l a r g e c o n t r i b u t i o n coming f r o m t h e S c a n d i n a v i a n c o u n t r i e s (US $61 m i l l i o n i n 1980 ) . A t p r e s e n t t h e c o u n t r y ' s i m p o r t s a r e t w i c e t h e v a l u e o f i t s e x p o r t s and f o r e i g n exchange r e s e r v e s have t h e r e f o r e been h a r d pressed. Raw m a t e r i a l i m p o r t s , i n p a r t i c u l a r o i l , accoun t f o r a l m o s t h a l f t h e i m p o r t b i l l . I m p o r t s o f c rude o i l a l one , i n 1979, accounted f o r 40 p e r c e n t o f a l l e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . By 1981 o i l was c o s t i n g Mozambique e i g h t e e n t i m e s wha t i t had i n 1973, t h e f i n a l y e a r b e f o r e independence. There a r e p o s i t i v e s i g n s t h a t e x p o r t s w i l l p i c k up aga in , however, w i t h t h e v a l u e o f c r u s t a c e a n e x p o r t s , f o r example, v i r t u a l l y d o u b l i n g f r o m 32 t o 58 m i l l i o n US d o l l a r s f r o m 1980 t o 1981. The f o r e i g n exchange f r o m a i d w i l l h e l p f i n a n c e t h e necessa ry i m p o r t s so t h a t t h e maximum u t i l i s a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g p r o d u c t i v e c a p a c i t y can o c c u r . I n t h e r e c e n t p a s t , b o t t l e n e c k s i n p r o d u c t i o n have o c c u r r e d because o f t h e t i g h t n e s s o f f o r e i g n exchange t o buy e s s e n t i a l p a r t s and raw m a t e r i a l s . A g r e a t dea l depends on t h e success o f t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p o l i c y w h i c h c o u l d f a c i l i t a t e a b i g r e d u c t i o n i n f o o d i m p o r t s and promote a g r i c u l t u r a l e x p o r t s . S igns o f a chang ing emphasis w i t h i n a g r i c u l t u r e , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e renewed s u p p o r t f o r t h e

c o - o p e r a t i v e and f a m i l y s e c t o r s , c o u l d h e r a l d m a j o r improvements i n t h i s a rea . A p e r i o d o f c o n s o l i d a t i o n r a t h e r t h a n expans ion i n t h e s t a t e f a r m s e c t o r s h o u l d improve p r o d u c t i v i t y p e r h e c t a r e . The gove rnmen t ' s f i r m commi tmen t t o a p01 i c y o f s e l f - r e 1 i a n c e p r o v i d e s e n c o u r a g i n g s i g n s f o r f u t u r e g r o w t h i n t h e economy. Hav ing examined t h e economic backdrop we now t u r n t o a n a l y s e t h e ene rgy s e c t o r i n d e t a i l .

ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR

We b e g i n b y f o c u s i n g on e x i s t i n g e n e r g y demand b y s e c t o r , e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e base case f o r t h e y e a r 1980; t h e n we demons t ra te how t h i s demand wil.1 grow t o t h e y e a r 2000 on a bus iness- as- usua l b a s i s assuming no governmenta l i n t e r v e n t i o n . By e s t a b l i s h i n g e x i s t i n g demand we i s o l a t e t h e q u a n t i t y o f ene rgy r e q u i r e d t o g u a r a n t e e t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e economy and domes t i c sphe res . As we see f r o m T a b l e 1.6, domes t i c consumpt ion accoun ts f o r 76 .4 p e r c e n t o f Mozambique's t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion. I n d u s t r y i s by f a r t h e second most i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r f o l l o w e d by t r a n s p o r t , and f i n a l l y a g r i c u l t u r e and commerc ia l / i n s t i t u t i o n a l w h i c h each a c c o u n t f o r a b o u t t h e same sha re .

I f we go on t o examine consumpt ion by f u e l sou rce , t h e n aga in , one c a t e g o r y i s o v e r w h e l m i n g l y dominant - wood. T h i s accoun ted f o r more t h a n t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion i n 1980. N e a r l y a l l o f t h e f ue lwood i s consumed i n t h e r u r a l househo ld s e c t o r and t h i s s e c t o r a l s o consumes t h e second mos t i m p o r t a n t f u e l sou rce used, dung and c r o p r e s i d u e . I n d u s t r y and t h e u r b a n househo ld s e c t o r consume mos t o f t h e t h i r d mos t i m p o r t a n c e f u e l source, c h a r c o a l . N e x t comes v a r i o u s o i l p r o d u c t s , c o a l and e l e c t r i c i t y , used m a i n l y i n i n d u s t r y , a g r i c u l t u r e , t r a n s p o r t and commerce.

Hav ing seen t h e o v e r a l l p a t t e r n t h e r e f o l l o w s a d i s c u s s i o n o f consumpt ion b y s e c t o r . T h i s w i l l f o c u s on e x i s t i n g end-use p a t t e r n s as w e l l as f u t u r e p r o j e c t i o n s .

Domest ic Energy Consumption

I t i s c l e a r f r o m t h e n a t i o n a l e n e r g y ba lance t h a t domes t i c ene rgy consumpt ion has t h e b i g g e s t s h a r e o f t o t a l consumpt ion, see T a b l e 8 f o r t h e d e t a i l e d breakdown. T h i s , indeed, s h o u l d n o t be s u r p r i s i n g , g i v e n t h e b a s i c need f o r peop le t o e a t cooked food, keep warm on w i n t e r n i g h t s and g i v e n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f h e a t i n g w a t e r f o r c l e a n l i n e s s and h y g i e n e . A l l t hese b a s i c needs t h a t p e o p l e s h a r e r e q u i r e ene rgy i n t h e househo ld . Gua ran tee ing t h e s u p p l y o f e n e r g y t o t h e peop le mus t t h e r e f o r e r a n k as a h i g h p r i o r i t y f o r government p l a n n e r s . I n t h e p a s t , t o o l i t t l e t h o u g h t was g i v e n t o t h i s a r e a because i t was one t h a t d i d n o t appear on any commerc ia l b a l a n c e s h e e t . A lso , i n t h e m a j o r i t y o f cases

T A B L E 1 . 6

Energy Demand By Sec tor For -- (percen tage s h a r e s 1

Percentage

Urban Household Rural Household Agri cul t u r e Indus t r y Commercial / I n s t i t u t i o n a l Transpor t

Total 100.0

TABLE 1 . 7

Er~d Use Fuel Consumption For 1980 ( ~ e r c e n t a a e s h a r e s )

Percentage

Woodfuel 77.0 Charcoal 4 .7 Dung/Resi due 6 . 4 Indus t r ia ! Wood 1 . 1 Gasol i ne 0 . 6 Kerosene 0 . 7 Diesel 2 .0 Aviat ion Fuel 0 . 3 Residual Oil 4 .2 E l e c t r i c i t y 0 . 9 Coal 2 .1 Natural Gas 0 . 0 LPG 0 . 1 Refined Oil 0 . 0

Total 100.0

f ue lwood was r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e hence t h e p rob lem was n o t as a c u t e as i t i s now. B u t perhaps t h e most i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r h i d i n g t h e i s s u e f r o m p u b l i c v i e w was t h a t i t was t h e women whose j o b i t was t o gua ran tee t h e r u r a l domes t i c ene rgy s u p p l y . I t was j u s t one more o f t h e ' i n v i s i b l e ' t a s k s o f domes t i c l a b o u r w i t h w h i c h many d e c i s i o n - m a k e r s d i d n o t conce rn t hemse1ves .A~ t h e women's v o i c e was absen t h i s t o r i c a l l y , t h e p rob lem was l e f t t o grow. The e x t e n t o f t h e e x i s t i n g p r o b l e m o f f ue lwood s h o r t a g e w i l l be examined i n some d e t a i l i n a l a t e r s e c t i o n o f t h e r e p o r t .

Cook ing i s b y f a r t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t ene rgy consuming a c t i v i t y i n t h e househo ld , w i t h h e a t i n g and l i g h t i n g r e q u i r i n g s m a l l e r q u a n t i t i e s o f ene rgy . D i f f e r e n c e s a r e a p p a r e n t i n t h e use o f ene rgy between r u r a l and u rban househo lds ( see T a b l e 1 . 8 ) . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p h y s i c a l a v a i l a b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s ene rgy r e s o u r c e s a f u r t h e r d e t e r m i n i n g f a c t o r i s income. As y e t , no s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e on t h e l a t t e r .

Ru ra l Househol d C o n s u r n ~ t i o n .

W i t h a l m o s t n i n e o u t o f e v e r y t e n Mozambicans l i v i n g i n t h e r u r a l a reas , i n e v i t ab1 y r u r a l domes t i c e n e r g y consumpt ion accoun ts f o r t h e l i o n ' s sha re o f t o t a l consumpt ion. The r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n s e v e r a l a reas o f t h e c o u n t r y has been h i t by t h e f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e and i n gene ra l has few a l t e r n a t i v e s open t o it, f o r f i n a n c i a l and s u p p l y reasons . A s e r i o u s s t u d y o f r u r a l energy prob lems i s t h e r e f o r e r e q u i r e d , i n p a r t i c u l a r g i v e n t h a t t h e s o c i a l i s a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y s i d e has r e c e i v e d t h e gove rnmen t ' s h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y . No t on1 y does t h e communal v i l l a g e programme r a i s e q u e s t i o n s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y , i t a1 so r a i s e s ones c o n c e r n i n g f u e l wood and o t h e r l o c a l l y a v a i l a b l e energy r e s o u r c e s . The p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t between a g r i c u l t u r a l p o t e n t i a l and fue lwood p o t e n t i a l on t h e l and i s r e p e a t e d i n te rms o f l a b o u r t i m e a l l o c a t i o n . I f a l l t h e wood s u p p l y i n t h e immed ia te v i c i n i t y o f t h e communal v i l l a g e i s removed t o f a c i l i t a t e c u l t i v a t i o n , women w i l l have t o spend a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i r t i m e w a l k i n g l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s t o c o l l e c t t h e wood. There w i l l be a c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1 y s h o r t e r t i m e p e r i o d a v a i l a b l e f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l wo rk .

V i r t u a l l y a l l r u r a l househo lds a r e dependent on wood f o r t h e i r m a j o r e n e r g y sou rce . I t a l s o p r o v i d e s h e a t i n g and background l i g h t i n g . P a r a f f i n lamps and c a n d l e s a r e t h e usua l sou rce o f d i r e c t l i g h t i n g .

The r e l a t i v e l y h i g h consumpt ion o f c r o p wastes and dung i n d i c a t e s an a l r e a d y e x i s t i n g f ue lwood s h o r t a g e and can s e r i o u s l y d e t r a c t f r o m s o i l f e r t i l i t y i n t h e l o n g te rm. Crop r e s i d u e s a r e o n l y a v a i l a b l e d u r i n g c e r t a i n t i m e s o f t h e y e a r , n o t a b l y f o l l o w i n g t h e h a r v e s t . G iven t h e h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e r u r a l a reas, t h e r e i s a s t r o n g case f o r c a r r y i n g o u t a r u r a l ene rgy s u r v e y t o g a i n a more a c c u r a t e and d e t a i l e d p i c t u r e o f t h e s i t u a t i o n and t h e d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n t h e p r o v i n c e s .

TABLE 1.8

Summary R e p o r t Of Fuel Consumption ( M i l l i o n s o f G i g a- J o u l e s )

Level /Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

S e c t o r Urban Household 8.9 12.3 15.4 20.1 24.5

Wood Fue l 6.8 9.0 10.9 13.6 15.8 Charcoal 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 Kerosene 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 E l e c t r i c i t y 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.4 LPG 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5

S e c t o r Rura l Household 206.2 231.6 256.0 289.7 322.0

Wood Fue l 186.4 211.1 235.3 268.5 301.0 Charcoal 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 Dung/Resi due 18.1 18.1 17.5 16.8 15.2 Kerosene 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 E l e c t r i c i t y 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.9

S e c t o r A g r i c u l t u r e 3.7 4.3 4.9 5.8 6.6

Wood Fue l 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.1 Gas01 i ne 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 D i e s e l 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 E l e c t r i c 1 t y 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

S e c t o r Indus t r y 46.8 53.6 60.3 70.8 81.3

Wood Fue l 20.5 23.5 26.6 30.7 34.8 Charcoal 11.9 13.7 15.5 18.0 20.5 Wood I n d u s t r i a l 3.1 3.7 4.2 4.9 5.6 Kerosene 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Res idua l O i l 6.3 7.1 7.8 9.6 11.4 E l e c t r i c i t y 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.5 Coal 3.5 3.9 4.3 5.3 6.3

S e c t o r Commer/Inst 3.9 5.4

Wood Fue l 0.6 0.9 Charcoal 0.2 0.2 Res idua l 0 i 1 2.7 3.8 E l e c t r i c i t y 0.3 0.5 Coal 0.0 0.0

S e c t o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 12.2 14.2

Gas01 i ne 1.7 2.0 D i e s e l 4.5 5.3 A v i a t i o n Fuel 0.8 1 .0 Res idua l O i l 2.8 3.3 Coal 2.3 2.7

Urban Hobsebol d Consumpt ion. p-.----

Urban d ~ ~ e l l e r s t e n d t o have g r e a t e r access t o wage income and a w i d e r a v a i l a b i l i t y o f ene rgy s u p p l i e s . Even so, energy consumpt ion p a t t e r n s a r e b a s i c a l l y s i m i l a r . Fuelwood and cha rcoa l a r e by f a r t h e r o s t i m p o r t a n t f u e l s used. Kerosene, e l e c t r i c i t y and b o t - l e d gas a l s o p r o v i d e :mpor tan t u rban domes t i c ene rgy .

Urban househo lds o n l y accoun t f o r 3 . 2 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l consumpt ion a c c o r d i n g t o o u r e s t i m a t e s ( see T a k l e 1 . 6 ) . Once aga in , no d e t a i l e d s u r v e y work has been c a r r i e d o u t t o g a i n a more a c c u r a t e p i c t u r e o f u rban domes t i c ene rgy c c n s ~ m p t i o n ( f o r o u r e s t i m a t e s see Tab le 1 . 8 ) . C e r t a i n o b s e r v a t i o n s can be made however. The h i g h e r income househo lds t e n d t o use e l e c t r i c i t y and gas f o r c o o k i n g . E l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a l i y i s much more i m g o r t a n t i n t h e u rban r a t h e r t h a n t h e r u r a l a reas .

By way o f c o n c l u s i o n , i t i s c l e a r t h a t wood and cha rcoa l w i l l remal'n m a j o r sources o f ene rgy f o r don ies t i c consumpt ion r i g h t dp u n t i l t h e y e a r 2000 (see Tab le 1 . 9 ) . Gua ran tee ing t h e sou rce o f s u p p l y t o meet a g r o w i n g demand w i l l t h e r e f o r e be v i t a l . T o t a i wocd fue l consumpt ion w i l l i n c r e a s e by 65 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e n e x t t w e n t y y e a r s a c c o r d i n g t o o u r e s t i m a t e s ( see Tab le 1 . 1 0 ) and a l r e z d y , a c c o r d i n g t o o u r f i g u r e s , t h e s t o c k o f wood i s b e i n g s e r i o u s l y d e p l e t e d by c u r r e n t l e v e l s o-F dernand ( see f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n on wood s u p p l y ) .

I n d u s t r i a l Energy -- Consumption.

l n d u s t r y accoun ted f o r 16 .6 p e r c e n t o f 211 ene rgy consumpt ion i n 1980. Aga in , wood fue l and c h a r c o a l were t h e most i m p o r t a n t ene rgy s o u r c e s . Res idua l o i i , c o a l and e 1 e c t r i c ; t y were a l s o used ( see Tab le 1 . 8 ) . I n gene ra l t h e 1n:ormal i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r uses a t i n y p r o p o v t i o n o f e n e r g y and t h e f o r m a l i ndus t . r i a1 s e c t o r i s overwhelming1 y t h e most i m p o r t a n t .

I n d u s t r y uses a q u a r t e r o f a l l p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , a t h i r d o f e l e c t r i c i t y , a1 i i n d u s t r i a l wood, 58 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o a l , n e a r l y one t e n t h o f t h e f ue lwood and n e a r l y 90 p e r c e n t o f t h e c h a r c o 2 l .

C e r t a ~ n i n d u s t r i e s a r e heavy u s e r s O F one p a r t i c u l a r t y p e o f f u e l , st ich as c o a l i n t h e cement i n d u s t r y . Undoubted ly , g i v e n Mozarribique's commi tmen t t o b u i l d up a beavy f n d u s t r ; a l base, ene rgy demartds i n t h i s s e c t o r wi: l s u b s t a i l t i a l 1 . y . I f b o t h t h e p roposed a1 umin ium s m e l t e r and i r o n ai-6 s t e e l i n d u s t i - y b e g i n p r o d u c t i o n , t h e n e l e c t r i c i t y consumpt ion i n i n d u s t r y w i l l be t w i c e wha t i t wou ld be o t h e r w i s e i n t k e y e a r ?OOC, T h i s o n l y se rves -to emphasise t h e i n i p o r t a n c ~ o f c 7 c s e l y c o - o r d I n a t i ng e n e r y y p1 a n n i n g w i t h economic p1 a n n i n g I n g e n e r a l . A t p r e s e n t m a n u -f a c t u r i n g o n l y accoun ts f o r a rodnd 10 p e r c e n t o f CD?, b l i t as i t s sha re grows, w h i c h it: u n d o u b t e d l y w i l l , i n d u s t r y ' s sha re o f ene rgy cos~sumpt ion mus t i n c r e a s e a c c o r d i n g 1 y .

(MI I l i o n s a t b i g a - ~ o u ~ e s )

P e t r o P r o d u c t E l e c t r i c i t y I n d . Wood Fuelwood Charcoal Res idue Coal T o t a l

Urban Household Cooking L i g h t i n g Other

R u r a l Household Cooking Other

A g r i c u l t u r e Large Smal l

I n d u s t r y La rge Urban

I n f o r m a l R u r a l C o t t a g e C o n s t r u c t i o n Rura l Const Po les

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Road P r i v a t e Pub1 i c Ra i 1 Passenger F r e i g h t AI r

TOTAL DEMAND 45.83 10.04 5 .61 357.65 23.26 15.20 10.54 468.13

TABLE 1 .10

End-Use Fue l Requ i rements Of Fuelwood (Mi l l i o n s o f Gi ga- Jou l es )

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Urban Househo ld 6 .77 8.99 10.86 13.59 15 .79

Rura l Househo ld 186.45 211.13 235.27 268.48 300.96

A g r i c u l t u r e 2 . 3 0 2 .68 3 .06 3 .58 4.11

I n d u s t r y 20.53 23.55 26.57 30.69 34 .81

Commer/ Inst 0.65 0 .91 1 .17 1 .58 1 .98

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 0 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0

T o t a l Demand 216.70 247.26 276,93 317.92 357.65

Much o f t h e m a c h i n e r y i n i n d u s t r y i s o l d and t h e r e f o r e o p e r a t e s i n e f f i c i e n t l y and i s c o s t l y on ene rgy . The e v e n t u a l purchase o f new equ ipmen t c o u l d r e d u c e ene rgy c o s t s s i g n i f i c a n t l y . The t h r e e p o s s i b l e n a t i o n a l sou rces o f e n e r g y t o ' f u e l t h e p roposed i n d u s t r i a1 expans ion a r e c o a l , h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m Cahora Bassa and n a t u r a l gas. I t i s t o o e a r l y as y e t t o make any s p e c i f ~ c p r e d i c t i o n s a b o u t f u t u r e i n d u s t r i a l demand f o r ene rgy beyond t h o s e c o n t a i n e d w i t h i n Tab les 1 . 8 and 1 . 9 . Many d i f f e r e n t p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t . C e r t a i n p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s t h a t Mozambique i n t e n d s d e v e l o p i n g a r e ene rgy i n t e n s i v e , such as me ta l p r o c e s s i n g , f e r t i l i s e r and chemica l p r o d u c t i o n . Our i n i t i a1 e s t i m a t e s a r e t h a t t o t a l i n d u s t r i a l e n e r g y consumpt ion w i l l i n c r e a s e 74 p e r c e n t b y t h e y e a r 2000.

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n .

A f t e r domes t i c and i n d u s t r i a1 consumpt ion, t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r i s t h e t h i r d l a r g e s t ene rgy consumer, a c c o u n t i n g f o r 4 .3 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l . D i e s e l has t h e g r e a t e s t i m p o r t a n c e f o l l owed by r e s i d u a l o i l , c o a l , gaso lene and a v i a t i o n f u e l (see Tab le 8 ) . Road t r a n s p o r t a t i o n accoun ts f o r j u s t o v e r h a l f o f a l l ene rgy consumpt ion i n t h i s s e c t o r , r a i l t r a n s p o r t f o r 42 p e r c e n t and a i r t r a n s p o r t f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g 7 p e r c e n t .

Undoub ted l y t h e g r e a t e s t demand on e x p e n s i v e i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m r e s o u r c e s comes f r o m t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , a b o u t 40 p e r c e n t i n t o t a l . B u t u n l i k e many o f t h e advanced i n d u s t r i a l i s e d c o u n t r i e s , where a g r e a t amount i s consumed b y t h e p r i v a t e p l e a s u r e m o t o r i s t , t h e r e i s o n l y a c e r t a i n l i m i t e d room f o r c o n s e r v a t i o n measures as mos t o f t h e f u e l consumed i n Mozambique i s d i r e c t 1 y r e 1 a t e d t o p r o d u c t i v e o r p r o d u c t i o n s u p p o r t i v e a c t i v i t i e s . However, economies i n t h e use o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s have c l e a r l y t o be a t t e m p t e d i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r .

A t p r e s e n t p r i v a t e c a r s a r e a l l o w e d 20 l i t r e s p e r week o f p e t r o l a t t h e b a s i c r a t e o f 27 m e t i c a i s p e r l i t r e . I n d i v i d u a l s can buy more, b u t o n l y w i t h a 100 m e t i c a i s su rcha rge . As many l i t r e s as r e q u i r e d can be purchased a t 27 m e t i c a i s p e r l i t r e , as l o n g as t h i s i s p a i d f o r i n f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y . These measures, i n t r o d u c e d i n t h e e a r l y p a r t o f 1981, have a l r e a d y p roduced a s a v i n g i n f o r e i g n exchange. Towards t h e end o f 1981 s t a t e s t r u c t u r e s were a1 so l i m i t e d b y an amendment t o t h e law, i n t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h t h e y c o u l d pay t h e 100 m e t i c a i s s u r c h a r g e . Given t h a t t h e s t a t e accoun ts f o r t h e ove rwhe lm ing sha re o f r o a d t r a n s p o r t t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n l y p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r impos ing economy measures. A f u r t h e r de f a c t o economy measure i s t h e v e r y l i m i t e d number o f p r i v a t e c a r s f o r s a l e i n s i d e t h e c o u n t r y . These g e n e r a l l y have t o be pu rchased i n f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y f rom abroad. The t o t a l number o f passenger c a r s f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y a t t h e t i m e o f independence f r o m 49,000 i n 1973 t o 29,500 i n 1976. A s t u d y c a r r i e d o u t i n t h e l a t e 1970s, e s t i m a t e d t h a t a b o u t one q u a r t e r o f t h e t r u c k f l e e t was more t h a n seven teen y e a r s o l d , t h e r e f o r e v e r y i n e f f i c i e n t and heavy on f u e l consumpt ion .

There a r e f i v e r a i l w a y companies o p e r a t i n g i n Mozambique. The two sma l l ones i n Inhambane and Zambezia p r o v i n c e s e s s e n t i a l l y r e l y on wood. The l a t t e r p l a n s t o move o v e r t o c o a l b y 1984. The C e n t r e and t h e N o r t h e r n l i n e s use c o a l . The Mozambican t r a i n s on t h e Cen t re l i n e use M o a t i z e c o a l b u t t h e e i g h t t r a i n s h i r e d f r o m South A f r i c a use Zimbabwean c o a l . The N o r t h e r n l i ne uses v i r t u a l l y a1 l l o c a l l y p roduced c o a l . General l y t h e Sou the rn l i n e has used South A f r i c a n c o a l b u t t h e r e was a m a j o r change f r o m 1980 t o 1981 when mos t o f t h e steam t r a i n s were moved f u r t h e r n o r t h and t h e Sou the rn l i n e wen t o v e r a l m o s t e n t i r e l y t o d i e s e l . Coal consumpt ion f e l l f r o m 28,512 t o n s t o 7,083. A s t u d y i s b e i n g made on t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f e l e c t r i f y i n g t h e Sou the rn n e t w o r k and t h i s w i l l be p r e s e n t e d i n 1983. The e a r l i e s t i t c o u l d come i n t o o p e r a t i o n however, wou ld be 1990. G e n e r a l l y a newer f l e e t o f r a i l w a y eng ines wou ld improve f u e l economy b u t t h i s c o u l d o n l y t a k e p l a c e o v e r an ex tended t i m e p e r i o d g i v e n e x i s t i n g f i n a n c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s .

A i r t r a n s p o r t o n l y accoun ted f o r a sma l l p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l t r a n s p o r t ene rgy use and any economies a r e presumably r a t h e r r e s t r i c t e d i n t h e i m p a c t t h e y w i l l make on t h e o v e r a l l n a t i o n a l p i c t u r e .

A a r i c u l t u r e .

A1 though a g r i c u l t u r e o n l y accoun ts f o r 1 . 3 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l f u e l consumpt ion t h e r e a r e c e r t a i n l y economies w h i c h can be made. I n p a r t i c u l a r , and t h i s i s a l s o a p p l i c a b l e f o r t h e o t h e r p r o d u c t i v e s e c t o r s , g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n c o u l d be p a i d towards t h e f o r e i g n exchange and l o c a l c o s t s o f p r o d u c t i o n as compared w i t h t h e r e s u l t s g a i n e d . Some a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n u n i t s have t h u s f a r p r o v e d t o be a d r a i n r a t h e r t h a n a b e n e f i t t o t h e c o u n t r y ' s economy.

G e n e r a l l y , i t i s l a r g e r s c a l e a g r i c u l t u r e w h i c h uses t h e b u l k o f non-human ene rgy r e s o u r c e s - e s s e n t i a l l y f ue lwood and p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . The wood i s used main1 y f o r d r y i n g c rops and t h e p e t r o l e u m f o r power ing mach ine ry . Smal l e r - s c a l e,more l abour i n t e n s i v e a g r i c u l t u r e i n gene ra l uses l e s s commerc ia l ene rgy i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n p rocess , b u t t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f peasan t c r o p s does o f c o u r s e r e q u i r e e n e r g y f o r t r a n s p o r t . Less c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e a g r i c u l t u r e saves n o t o n l y on t h e f u e l i m p o r t b i l l b u t a1 so on f o r e i g n exchange c o s t s g e n e r a l l y as l e s s c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e i m p o r t e d m a c h i n e r y i s r e q u i r e d .

ENERGY SUPPLY

I n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n t h e e x i s t i n g demand f o r ene rgy was examined and we saw t h e e x t e n t o f p r o b a b l e f u t u r e ene rgy r e q u i r e m e n t s . By f i r s t l o o k i n g a t t h e demand s i d e o f t h e ene rgy

e q u a t i o n we a r e i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o assess t h e l i k e l y prob lems t o a r i s e on t h e s u p p l y s i d e . T h i s enab les us t o p i n p o i n t e x i s t i n g v u l n e r a b i l i t i e s and p o s s i b l e f u t u r e c r i s i s w h i c h may emerge i f governmenta l a c t i o n i s n o t t aken t o a v e r t t hese .

By f a r t h e g r e a t e s t demand on ene rgy r e s o u r c e s i n Mozambique, as i n most o t h e r A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , i s f o r fue lwood, and we b e g i n by a s s e s s i n g wood supp ly b e f o r e mov ing on t o make an a p p r a i s a l o f c o a l , hydropower, o i l and gas supp l i e s . Each source o f ene rgy has i t s own p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p r e s e n t s d i f f e r e n t prob lems as a s u p p l y source.

Wood Supp ly .

C e r t a i n p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y a r e w e l l endowed w i t h fue lwood resou rces , c o n t r a s t i n g marked1 y w i t h t h o s e areas where t h e s u p p l y i s nowhere s u f f i c i e n t t o meet demand. Tab le 1.11 g i v e s a breakdown o f t h e s i t u a t i o n i n e v e r y p r o v i n c e , p r o v i d i n g an assessment o f t h e e x i s t i n g wood needs and t h e a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y . The s i t u a t i o n i s t h e n c h a r a c t e r i s e d on a s c a l e f r o m s a t i s f a c t o r y t o l e s s s a t i s f a c t o r y , d e f i c i t f o reseen , s c a r c i t y and c r i s i s . I n s i x o u t o f t h e t e n p r o v i n c e s t h e wood s u p p l y s i t u a t i o n i s n o t s a t i s f a c t o r y and i n t h r e e o f t hese cases - Zambezia, Te te and Maputo - t h e r e i s a sho r tage . C l e a r l y a s e r i o u s p rob lem e x i s t s . The s i t u a t i o n by p r o v i n c e can a l s o be f o u n d i l l u s t r a t e d on F i g u r e 1.1.

W i t h i n each p r o v i n c e t h e r e a r e c l e a r l y g o i n g t o be g r e a t d i f f e r e n c e s f r o m d i s t r i c t t o d i s t r i c t . I n Te te P rov ince , f o r exampl e, Angoni a d i s t r i c t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y bad1 y h i t because o f o v e r - g r a z i n g , i n t e n s i v e f a r m i n g and t h e r e 1 a t i v e l y h i g h p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y . People grow e u c a l y p t u s f o r t h e i r own use as w e l l as f o r s a l e . Some have hundreds o f t r e e s and a me t re o f wood may f e t c h a p r i c e o f 600 m e t i c a i s .

I n Maputo P rov ince , t h e p r i c e o f f ue lwood and cha rcoa l has doub led i n t h e c a p i t a l f r o m 150 m e t i c a i s f o r a sack o f cha rcoa l i n 1979 t o 350 m e t i c a i s i n 1982. The b l a c k m a r k e t p r i c e may even be h i g h e r and i n one o f t h e i n n e r c i t y s u b u r b s o f Maputo, Malhangene, an i n f o r m a l s u r v e y d i s c o v e r e d an a s k i n g p r i c e o f 550 m e t i c a i s f o r a sack o f c h a r c o a l . A b u n d l e o f wood s i m i l a r l y had doub led i n p r i c e o v e r t h e t h r e e y e a r s t o 125 m e t i c a i s f o r one sack.

T r a i n s l o a d e d w i t h f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l a r r i v e d a i l y a t t h e Maputo a i r p o r t r a i l way s t a t i o n . People t r a v e l huge d i s t a n c e s t o b r i n g and s e l l t h i s e s s e n t i a l domes t i c ene rgy r e s o u r c e i n t h e c a p i t a l c i t y . Many p r i v a t e t r a d e r s a l s o b r i n g i n t h e c i t y ' s supp ly , i n l o r r i e s and p i c k - u p t r u c k s . A s i m i l a r p a t t e r n i s r e p e a t e d i n o t h e r c i t i e s and m a j o r towns w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y as i n Nampul a and Nacal a.

Even w i t h i n a p r o v i n c e whose genera l f ue lwood s i t u a t i o n may be d e s i g n a t e d s a t i s f a c t o r y , a severe c r i s i s may s t i l l e x i s t around t h e urban c e n t r e s , as i s t h e case w i t h B e i r a i n S o f a l a

TABLE 1 .11

Wood Supp l y And Demand By P r o v i n c e -

Wogd Need Annual P o p u l a t i o n (m j h a b i t a n t j ToSal Need P r g d u c t i on

P r o v i n c e (000 ) y e a r (m / y e a r ) (m S i t u a t i o n

Mapu t o

Gaza

Inhambane

So f a1 a

Manica

Te t e

Zambezi a

Nampul a

Cabo Delgado

N i assa

Who1 e C o u n t r y

I N CRISIS

DEFICIT FORESEEN

DEFICIT FORESEEN

I

SATISFACTORY N

m

SATISFACTORY I

SCARCITY

SCARCITY

DEFICIT FORESEEN

SATISFACTORY

SATISFACTORY

DEFICIT FORESEEN

Sosrce: Depar tamento de F1 o r e s t a s E Fauna B r a v i a, M i n i s t e r i o de A g r i c u l t u r a , Maputo, 1982.

- 2 7 -

F I G I J K E l.!

A V A ~ L A B I L I T Y OF WOOD

Less s a t ~ s f a c t o r y

Def ici t foreseen

P r o v i n c e . As we saw i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n , t h e u rban a reas consume b o t h c h a r c o a l and t i m b e r w i t h t h e f o r m e r i n p a r t i c u l a r b e i n g v e r y demanding on wood s u p p l y .

E s t i m a t e s a t t h e end o f t h e 1 9 7 0 ' s (FAO, 1979) suggested t h a t w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 360,000 i n B e i r a , w i t h s i x persons p e r f a m i l y , t h e n o f t h e 60,000 f a m i l i e s o n e - t h i r d were se rved by t h e gas company and t h e r e m a i n i n g 40,000 used c h a r c o a l . I f each f a m i l y used 2 k g l d a y t h e n t h e t o t a l demand f o r t h e c i t y was 29,200 t o n s annua l l y .

I n f a c t , i n t h e y e a r 1981/82 t h e r e was v i r t u a l l y no b o t t l e d gas i n B e i r a a t a l l , hence consumpt ion on t h e above f i g u r e s s h o u l d have been 43,800 t o n s o f c h a r c o a l a n n u a l l y . The f o r e s t s o f t h e n e a r b y Dondo d i s t r i c t were r a p i d l y b e i n g d e p l e t e d as many p e o p l e began t a k i n g up f u l l - t i m e c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n t o meet t h e i n c r e a s e d demand. Charcoa l b u r n i n g and t r e e - f e l l i n g was c a r r i e d o u t i n an ad hoc and i n d i s c r i m i n a t e f a s h i o n . Given t h e s p o r a d i c a c t i o n s o f South A f r i c a n - b a c k e d t e r r o r i s t bands t o t h e wes t o f t h e Pungue R i v e r , h i n d e r i n g f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s f r o m t h a t p a r t o f t h e p r o v i n c e , g r e a t e r p r e s s u r e can be e x p e c t e d on e x i s t i n g s u p p l i e s e a s t o f t h e Pungue.

Even i n a w e l l - f o r e s t e d a r e a such as N i a s s a P r o v i n c e where t h e u rban p o p u l a t i o n i s s m a l l , t h e r e i s a c h a r c o a l and fue lwood s h o r t a g e i n t h e p r o v i n c i a l c a p i t a l o f L i c h i n g a . T h i s i s g e n e r a l l y t h e r e s u l t o f t h e o t h e r f u e l c r i s i s , whereby p e t r o l and d i e s e l as w e l l as e v e r y f o r m o f t r a n s p o r t i s i n s h o r t s u p p l y t o b r i n g t h e f u e l i n f r o m t h e n o t - t o o - d i s t a n t wooded a reas .

We can t u r n now t o examine t h e e c o l o g i c a l breakdown o f t h e c o u n t r y i n r e l a t i o n t o i t s wood r e s o u r c e s . Tab le 1 . 1 2 p r o v i d e s a n a t i o n a l breakdown i n t o f o u r t e e n t y p e s o f a reas o f n a t u r a l woody v e g e t a t i o n . To c l a r i f y c e r t a i n c a t e g o r i e s i n t h e t a b l e : 5 and 11 r e f e r t o a reas w i t h i n t h e n a t i o n a l p a r k s ; 4 r e f e r s t o mangroves. Once a g a i n a wo rd o f c a u t i o n mus t be sounded a b o u t t h e accu racy o f t h e s t a t i s t i c s as t h e s e a r e based l a r g e l y on a v i s u a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f i a n d s a t sa te1 l i t e imagery g i v i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n i n 1973. Accoun t was t h e n t a k e n o f d e g r a d a t i o n r a t e s and d e f o r e s t a t i o n i n t h e i n t e r v e n i n g p e r i o d t o a r r i v e a t an e s t i m a t e f o r 1980.

The g r e a t e s t s u r f a c e a r e a o f t h e c o u n t r y i s c o v e r e d by open f o r e s t ( c a t e g o r i e s 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 i n t h e t a b l e ) and t h e most common dominan t gene ra and s p e c i e s a r e B r a c h y s t e g i a , S t r ychnos and Combretaceae, A1 b i z i a, T r i c h i l i a-Sc l erocarya-Uapaca, Colophospermum mopane. Shrub f o r m a t i o n s a c c o u n t f o r a t h i r d o f t h e t o t a l a rea .

One- f i f t h t o o n e- q u a r t e r o f t h e c l o s e d f o r e s t s and wood1 ands have had t h e i r phys iognomy changed o v e r t h e p r e v i o u s decade. T h i s has been t h e combined r e s u l t o f c l e a r i n g f o r a g r i c u l t u r e and o v e r - e x p l o i t a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o T a b l e 1.12, t h i s w o u l d r e s u l t say, i n a t r a n s f e r f r o m c a t e g o r y 3 t o c a t e g o r y 8. Every y e a r 5,000 h e c t a r e s o f p r o d u c t i v e wood lands a r e assumed t o become u n p r o d u c t i v e , and an add? t i o n a l 40,000 h e c t a r e s a r e c o n v e r t e d t o

Area O f N a t u r a l Woody V e g e t a t i o n E s t i m a t e d A t The End O f 1980

Annual P o t e n t i a l Area ( i n 000 P r g d u c t ~ v i t y Annual h e c t a r e s ) (m ) Y i e l d (m )

1. U n d i s t u r b e d p r o d u c t i v e c l o s e d b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t s n o t ( i n t e n s i v e l y ) managed

2. Logged-over p r o d u c t i v e c l o s e d b r o a d l eaved f o r e s t s n o t ( i n t e n s i v e l y ) managed

3 . P r o d u c t i v e c l o s e d b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t s n o t ( i n t e n s i v e l y ) managed

4 . C losed b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t s u n p r o d u c t i v e f o r p h y s i c a l reasons ( s t a n d and t e r r a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s )

5 . Closed b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t s u n p r o d u c t i v e f o r l e g a l reasons

6. U n p r o d u c t i v e c l o s e d b road leaved f o r e s t s 7 . Closed b r o a d l eaved f o r e s t s 8. F o r e s t f a 1 l o w ( o f c l o s e d b r o a d l eaved f o r e s t s ) 9. P r o d u c t i v e m ixed b r o a d l e a v e d

f o r e s t -- g r a s s l a n d t r e e f o r m a t i o n s 10. Mixed b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t - g r a s s l a n d t r e e

f o r m a t i o n s - u n p r o d u c t i v e f o r p h y s i c a l reasons 11. Mixed b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t - g rass1 and t r e e

f o r m a t i o n s - u n p r o d u c t i v e f o r l e g a l reasons U n p r o d u c t i v e m i x e d b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t - g r a s s l a n d t r e e f o r m a t i o n s

12. M ixed b r o a d l e a v e d f o r e s t - g r a s s l a n d t r e e f o r m a t i o n s

13. F o r e s t f a 1 low ( o f m ixed b road leaved f o r e s t - -

g rass1 and 14. Shrub f o r m a t i o n s ( e s s e n t i a l l y )

TOTAL

Source: FAO, "Mozambique" i n F o r e s t Resources o f T r o p i c a l A f r i c a . P a r t I1 : C o u n t r y B r i e f s , FAO, Rome, 1981. ---p

permanent a g r i c u l t u r e o r wood land f a l l o w . A g r i c u l t u r e encroaches i n t o t h e sh rub a reas and a l s o t a k e s o v e r an e s t i m a t e d 70,000 h e c t a r e s o f ' u n p r o d u c t i v e ' woodlands e v e r y y e a r . These, i t must be s t r e s s e d , a r e o n l y e s t i m a t e s , and a d e t a i l e d s t u d y i s r e q u i r e d t o o b t a i n a more a c c u r a t e p i c t u r e . Those w o r k i n g on t h e ground f e e l t h a t t h e s i t u a t i o n c o u l d be even more s e r i o u s t h a n these f i g u r e s m i g h t sugges t .

The a g r i c u l t u r a l , f ue lwood and c o n s t r u c t i o n needs o f t h e p e o p l e a r e e x c e e d i n g t h e s u p p l y p o t e n t i a l i n many p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y l e a d i n g t o a d i m i n i s h i n g o f s t o c k s and t h e d e p l e t i o n o f one o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s mos t b a s i c r e s o u r c e s w h i c h meet t h e everyday needs of t h e peop le , f o r f o o d ( c o o k i n g ) , warmth and she1 t e r . Gua ran tee ing t h a t s u p p l y must have a h i g h p r i o r i t y i f h a r d s h i p i s n o t t o be f e l t i n c e r t a i n a reas . E s t i m a t e s have been made o f t h e g r o w i n g s t o c k , see T a b l e 1 .13.

Ano the r r e c e n t (FAO) f o r e s t r y s t u d y i n Mozambique, n o t conce rned e s s e n t i a1 l y w i t h f ue lwood b u t w i t h commerc ia l t i m b e r r e s o u r c e s , e s t i m a t e d t h a t 71 p e r c e n t o f t h e t e r r i t o r y had a n a t u r a l f o r e s t p o t e n t i a l . O f t h i s , 6 p e r c e n t was o f h i g h t o medium p o t e n t i a l , 19 p e r c e n t o f medium t o l o w p o t e n t i a l and 46 p e r c e n t o f m i x e d l i v e s t o c k and f a r m i n g f o r e s t l a n d . Es t ima tes f o r t h e s t o c k o f wood were g i v e n as shown i n T a b l e 1 .14.

T h i s s t u d y c o n f i r m e d t h a t p r e v i o u s l y t h e c o u n t r y ' s f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s were much more v a l u a b l e and i m p o r t a n t , b u t t h a t i r r a t i o n a l e x p l o i t a t i o n and s l a s h and b u r n a g r i c u l t u r a l measures have s e r i o u s l y d e p l e t e d r e s o u r c e s . I t goes on t o warn t h a t 600,000 h e c t a r e s o f h i g h f o r e s t a r e i n g r a v e danger o f d i s a p p e a r i n g i n t h e s h o r t t e rm i f a s t r i c t sys tem o f c o n t r o l i s n o t i n t r o d u c e d .

The t r e n d s a r e c l e a r l y appa ren t , i n c e r t a i n p r o v i n c e s a f u e l c r i s i s i s impend ing and t h i s can o n l y be a v e r t e d by a c o n c e r t e d programme o f c o n s e r v a t i o n and r e f o r e s t a t i o n .

A c c o r d i n g t o o u r p r o j e c t i o n s , f ue lwood consumpt ion o f 1 3 . 2 m i l l i o n t o n s i n 1980 w i l l have grown b y 64 p e r c e n t i n t h e y e a r 2000 t o 2 1 . 7 m i l l i o n t o n s . Wood f o r c h a r c o a l use w i l l have i n c r e a s e d o v e r t h e same p e r i o d f r o m 3 . 2 m i l l i o n t o n s t o 5 .7 m i l l i o n t o n s . T a b l e 1 .15 p r e s e n t s t h e c u r r e n t and p r o j e c t e d end-use f u e l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f c h a r c o a l . I f a s e r i o u s c r i s i s i s t o be a v e r t e d t h e n a c o n c e r t e d p o l i c y - m a k i n g e f f o r t w i l l be r e q u i r e d , g i v e n t h e d i m i n i s h i n g s t o c k o f wood w i t h e x i s t i n g l e v e l s o f demand. One o f t h e m a n i f e s t a t i o n s o f t h i s s h o r t a g e i s t h a t wha t was once a f r e e good i s r a p i d l y becoming a cash commodity, and i t s p r i c e i s e x p e r i e n c i n g an upward s p i r a l .

A t t h e T h i r d P a r t y Congress o f F r e l i m o i n 1977, a c l e a r s t a t e m e n t was made c o n c e r n i n g t h e need t o r a i s e p e o p l e ' s consc iousness a b o u t Mozambique's renewab le n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s . A n a t i o n a l campaign f o r t h e c o n t r o l o f i n d i s c r i m i n a t e b u r n i n g was launched, and b r i g a d e s were fo rmed i n e v e r y p r o v i n c e . Throdgh t h e medium o f pub1 i c mee t i ngs , a u d i o - v i s u a l a i d s , p o s t e r s and pamphle ts , an a t t e m p t was made t o r a i s e p e o a l e ' s consc iousness

TABLE 1.13

Growing S tock E s t i m a t e (end o f 1980)

a t e g o r y

Concepts o f T o t a l Volume - 3 ( j n m i l l i o n ) See Key m / h e c t a r e m

n d i s t u r b e d p r o d u c t i v e l o s e d b r o a d l e a v e d ] r e s t s n o t i n t e n s i v e l y anaged VOB 7 0

~ g g e d - o v e r p r o d u c t i v e VAC 10

l osed broad1 eaved , r e s t n o t i n t e n s i v e 1 y 3naged VOB 50

i p r o d u c t i ve c l o s e d -oad l eaved f o r e s t s VOB 30

- o d u c t i ve m i xed -oad l eaved f o r e s t - -ass1 and t r e e ~ r m a t i o n s VOB 35

VAC 5

TOTAL 173.2

)S - g r o s s voiume o v e r b a r k o f f r e e b o l e ( f r o m stump o r b u t t r e s s t o c rown p o i n t o r f i r s t ma in b r a n c h ) o f a l l l i v i n g t r e e s more t h a n 1Ocm d i a m e t e r a t b r e a s t h e i g h t ( o r above b u t t r e s s e s if t h e y a r e h i g h e r ) .

\C - ( f o r f o r e s t n o t i n t e n s i v e l y managed): volume a c t u a l l y commerci a1 i sed, t h a t i s v01 ume under b a r k o f l o g s a c t u a l l y e x t r a c t e d f r o m t h e f o r e s t .

I u r c e : FAO, "Moza rn~ ique" i n F o r e s t Resources o f T r o p i c a l A f r i c a . P a r t 11: C o u n t r y B r i e f s , FAO, Rome, 1981.

TABLE 1 . 1 4

Stock O f Wood Es t ima tes

s t o c k o f wood 000m3

F o r e s t o f Good P r o d u c t i v e PO ten t i a1 3,600

F o r e s t o f Medium P r o d u c t i v e P o t e n t i a1 12,000

F o r e s t o f Low P r o d u c t i v e P o t e n t i a1 15,000

TOTAL 30,600

Source: J. Mal l eux, Eval u a c i on De Los Recursos F o r e s t a l es De La Repub l i ca Popular De Mozambique, FAO, Rome, 1981.

TABLE 1.15

End-Use Fue l Requ i rements O f Charcoa l ( M i l l i o n s o f G iga- Jou l e s )

r b a n Househo ld 0.79 1.04 1.24 1.53 1.75

u r a l Househo ld 0.33 0.37 0.42 0.49 0.55

g r i c u l t u r e 0 .0 0 .0 0 . 0 0.0 0.0

n d u s t r y 11.92 13.73 15.54 18.00 20.46

srnmer/ Inst 0.16 0.23 0.29 0.39 0.50

r a n s p o r t a t i on 0 .0 0 .0 0 . 0 0 .0 0 . 0

s t a l Demand 13.20 15.37 17.49 20.41 23.25

a b o u t t h e v a l u e and s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e i r r enewab le n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , and t h e need t o c o n t r o l t h e b u r n i n g o f l a n d i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l c y c l e .

An a d d i t i o n a l measure t o i n c r e a s e t h e s u p p l y o f f ue lwood and c h a r c o a l was t h e s e t t i n g up o f t h e F02 p r o j e c t , " A f f o r e s t a t i o n i n Maputo P r o v i n c e f o r t h e P r o d u c t i o n o f Wood and Charcoa l " , and a F o r e s t r y E x t e n s i o n s e c t i o n was c r e a t e d , w h i c h s i m i l a r l y t r i e d t o awaken p e o p l e ' s u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e p rob lem. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e Maputo scheme, f o r e s t r y s u p p l y p r o j e c t s a r e a l s o b e i n g s e t up a round t h e c i t i e s o f B e i r a and Nampula.

One p rob lem f o u n d w i t h t h e p r o j e c t i s t h a t t h e l a n d s u r r o u n d i n g t h e c i t y , where t h e demand f o r f u e l w o o d i s so h igh , has a l s o t o be used f o r f o o d p r o d u c t i o n . P l a n t a t i o n s w i l l i n e v i t a b l y , t h e r e f o r e , i n c r e a s e l a n d p r e s s u r e i n an a r e a a l r e a d y marked b y l and s c a r c i t y . A second s p e c i f i c p rob lem i n t h e e a r l y s t a g e o f t h e p r o j e c t was t h a t t h e p a r t i c u l a r e u c a l y p t u s s p e c i e s chosen was n o t w e l l s u i t e d t o t h e d r y c l i m a t e and l o w m o i s t u r e h01 d i n g c a p a c i t y o f t h e predominant1 y sandy s o i l s o f t h e a rea . O the r e u c a l y p t u s s p e c i e s t r i e d l a t e r were b e t t e r adapted. Undoub ted l y t h e s e schemes mark an i m p o r t a n t s t e p f o r w a r d i n f a c i n g t h e u r b a n f u e l w o o d and c h a r c o a l c r i s i s . No l e s s o f a c r i s i s may a l s o be f o u n d i n c e r t a i n r u r a l a reas and o t h e r s o l u t i o n s w i l l have t o be f o u n d f o r t h i s .

C e r t a i n commerc ia l p1 a n t a t i o n s a1 r e a d y e x i s t . The 1980 e s t i m a t e f o r i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t a t i o n s i s 15 .9 t housand h e c t a r e s and 9.5 t housand h e c t a r e s f o r n o n - i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t a t i o n s . The f i r s t l a r g e - s c a l e p l a n t a t i o n s were c a r r i e d o u t f o r sand-dune f i x i n g a t t h e mouth o f t h e Limpopo R i v e r b e f o r e Wor ld War 11. Some e s t i m a t e s have been made c o n c e r n i n g t h e expans ion o f t h e p l a n t a t i o n a r e a t o t h e y e a r 1985. These sugges t t h a t i n d u s t r i a l p1 a n t a t i o n s w i l l c o v e r 25.9 thousand h e c t a r e s and n o n - i n d u s t r i a l p l a n t a t i o n s 17.5 t housand h e c t a r e s .

Commerci a1 Energy Sources.

Mozambique has c o n s i d e r a b l e e x i s t i n g commerc ia l ene rgy r e s o u r c e s and i t a l s o possesses g r e a t f u t u r e p o t e n t i a l . Coal and h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y e n e r g y s u p p l i e s may soon be j o i n e d b y n a t u r a l gas, and p o s s i b l y i n t h e f u t u r e o i l p r o d u c t i o n . We w i l l examine each o f t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l sources o f s u p p l y i n t u r n .

Coa l , Mozambique 's c o a l i s f o u n d w i t h i n t h e K a r r o o System w h i c h c o v e r s a l a r g e p a r t o f C e n t r a l and Sou the rn A f r i c a . A t p r e s e n t t h e r e i s one c 3 a l mine i n o p e r a t i o n a t M o a t i z e i n Te te P r o v i n c e and i t p roduces more t h a n 500,000 t o n s o f c o a l p e r yea r , e x c e e d i n g p re- independence p r o d u c t i o n l e v e l s . The improvement and expans ion o f t h e e x i s t i n g mine c o u l d p roduce 0 .7 t o 1 . 2 m i l l i o n t o n s o f c o a l p e r annum i n t h e f u t u r e .

O the r e c o n o m i c a l l y v i a b l e c o a l d e p o s i t s have been found w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y , m o s t l y c o n c e n t r a t e d i n f o u r l o c a t i o n s i n Te te

P r o v i n c e . These a r e a t M in jova , M i n j o v a N o r t h , Sananqua and Mucanha-Vuzi ( see F i g u r e 1 . 2 ) . The f o u r new mines t h a t CARBOMOC ( t h e s t a t e m i n i n g company) p l a n s t o open up, some e s t i m a t e s suggest , w i l l have an average annua l p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y o f 200,000 t o n s o f c o a l . O the r e s t i m a t e s s u g g e s t t h a t a t o t a l n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n o f t h r e e t o f o u r m i l l i o n t o n s o f c o a l a n n u a l l y i s p o s s i b l e i f two open- cu t mines b e g i n p r o d u c t i o n , t h e e x i s t i n g unde rg round mi ne i s e n l a rged and t h e r e q u i s i t e i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l improvements a r e made i n t h e p o r t o f B e i r a , on t h e r a i l w a y s and a round t h e m ines .

G l o b a l l y t h e demand f o r steam c o a l i s r i s i n g , perhaps b y as much as 1,000 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e n e x t t e n y e a r s . Mozambique w i l l m a i n l y be m i n i n g steam c o a l . A1 though Mozambique has l a r g e c o a l r e s e r v e s and as y e t no p r o v e n o i l p o t e n t i a l , c o a l -l i q u i f i c a t i o n wou ld p r o b a b l y n o t be an e c o n o m i c a l l y v i a b l e a1 t e r n a t i v e t o p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s i n t h e f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e .

E l e c t r i c i t y Suppl i e s . Mozambique has an abundant hydropower p o t e n t i a l , some o f w h i c h has a l r e a d y been r e a l i s e d . I n 1980 e x i s t i n g hydropower c a p a c i t y was 2,151 MW b u t p o t e n t i a l was g r e a t l y i n excess o f t h i s . One s t u d y has i d e n t i f i e d s i x t y s i t e s w i t h a p o s s i b l e i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f 11,755.2 MW.

Of t h e s i x t y s i t e s , p r e s e n t l y i n o p e r a t i o n i s t h e huge dam a t Cahora Bassa on t h e Zambezi R i v e r and two o t h e r s a t Muvuzi and Chicamba i n Manica P r o v i n c e . Three Dams i n t h e s o u t h o f t h e c o u n t r y i n a d d i t i o n have hydropower p o t e n t i a l a t Moamba Ma jo r , Corumana and M a s s i n g i r . C o n s t r u c t i o n w i l l a l s o b e g i n on a sma l l s c a l e hydropower p1 a n t i n N i assa P r o v i n c e i n 1983.

Undoub ted l y Cahora Bassa r e p r e s e n t s b y f a r t h e mos t s i g n i f i c a n t hydropower deve lopment . The Zambezi R i v e r on w h i c h t h e dam i s c o n s t r u c t e d has an e s t i m a t e d two t h i r d s o f t h e c o u n t r y ' 8 t o t a l hydropower r e s o u r c e s . S t u d i e s have been u n d e r t a k e n c o n c e r n j n g t h e b u i l d i n g o f a Cahora Bassa I 1 power s t a t i o n on t h e n o r t h e r n bank. T h i s wou ld have a c a p a c i t y o f 1,200 MW, p o t e n t i a1 l y p u t t i n g enormous and cheap e l e c t r i c i ty r e s o u r c e s a t t h e d i s p o s a l o f t h e SADCC member s t a t e s i n a d d i t i o n t o p r o v i d i n g t h e e n e r g y t o f u e l Mozambique's own deve lopment programme.

A t p r e s e n t t h e r e i s a m a j o r p r o j e c t underway t o b u i l d a t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e f r o m Cahora Bassa t o t h e c e n t r e and n o r t h o f t h e c o u n t r y . T h i s w i l l have 220 and 110 KV t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s and t r a n s f o r m e r s t a t i o n s o f 220/110 KV and 110133 KV. I t w i l l have a l o a d c a p a c i t y o f 400 MW and t h e c o s t i s US $300 m i l l i o n , w i t h t h e p r o j e c t e x p e c t e d t o be comp le ted i n 1985. I n t h e f i r s t phase a l i n e i s b e i n g c o n s t r u c t e d between Cahora Bassa and Mocuba (see F i g u r e 1 . 3 o f t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s ) . The l i n e w i l l t h e n be ex tended i n Nampula i n t h e second phase, t o Caia-Luabo-Marromeu i n t h e t h i r d , and i n a f o u r t h and f i n a l phase l i n e s t o A1 t o Molucue-Gurue-Cuamba, Nampula-Angoche and Nampula-Pemba w i l l be b u i l t .

- 36 -

F I G U R E 1.2

/ 0 1 1 prospecting

Existing or planned electricity transmlsslon l lne

Exist ing or planned @ power star ion

R a ~ l w a y

A second p r o j e c t c e n t r e s on t h e M a s s i n g i r dam i n t h e south , and t r a n s m i s s i o n l i n e s w i l l r u n t o Xai Xai and Maputo. Cheap e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m s u b - s t a t i o n s on t h e way w i l l h e l p t o i r r i g a t e t h e v a s t f a r m l a n d s o f t h e Limpopo and I n c o m a t i r i v e r v a l l e y s , now b e i n g deve loped as t h e n a t i o n ' s g r a n a r y . The c o s t i s US $40 m i l l i o n and i t s h o u l d become o p e r a t i o n a l i n 1984. T ransmiss ion l i n e s a r e 110 KV and t h e s t a t i o n s 110/33 KV, w i t h an e s t i m a t e d 80 MW l o a d .

The c o u n t r y has t h r e e main power systems a t p r e s e n t . The f i r s t , a round Maputo, r e c e i v e s Cahora Bassa power v i a South A f r i c a and a1 so uses t h e Sonefe c o a l - f i r e d power p l a n t . Second ly t h e r e i s t h e Ch imoio B e i r a sys tem u s i n g hydropower f r o m Mavuzi and Chicamba, and f i n a l l y t h e sys tem a round Cahora Bassa i t s e l f .

T o t a l i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y i n 1980 was 2,377 MW g e n e r a t i n g 11,551 GWH. T o t a l c a p a c i t y i s expec ted t o be i n c r e a s e d t o 3,539 MW b y t h e y e a r 2000. Over t h e same p e r i o d domes t i c ene rgy demand has been e s t i m a t e d t o r i s e f o u r f o l d f r o m 697 GWH t o 2,789 GWH (see Tab le 1 .16 f o r a d e t a i l e d breakdown) .

A t p r e s e n t o n l y a t i n y p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s p o p u l a t i o n i s s u p p l i e d w i t h e l e c t r i c i t y , r e f l e c t i n g t h e gene ra l s t a t e o f underdeve lopment . Even i n t h e m i d d l e t o l o n g term, p r o v i d i n g e l e c t r i c i t y f o r gene ra l domes t i c consumpt ion w i l l r e m a i n b u t a d i s t a n t g o a l . The mos t o p t i m i s t i c assessment o f u r b a n e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n b y t h e y e a r 1990 i s t h a t i f t h e u rban p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s b y a minimum o f 720,000 p e o p l e o n l y 250,000 o f t h e s e p e o p l e w i l l r e c e i v e b a s i c s e r v i c e s such as l i g h t i n g and w a t e r . Most e l e c t r i c i t y i s c u r r e n t 1 y b e i n g consumed b y i n d u s t r y .

A t p r e s e n t Mozambique e x p o r t s 9 1 p e r c e n t o f i t s e l e c t r i c i t y p r o d u c t i o n t o South A f r i c a . T h i s i s a huge and v a l u a b l e r e s o u r c e w h i c h c o u l d b e n e f i t t h e r e g i o n as a who le as w e l l as Mozambique. I t r e p r e s e n t s one more l i n k o f i n t e g r a t i o n w i t h South A f r i c a , b u t i t i s f a i l i n g t o o b t a i n t h e b e n e f i t s o f f o r e i g n c u r r e n c y w h i c h t h i s m i g h t b r i n g , as t h e South A f r i c a n government i s p e r m i t t i n g r e b e l bands w h i c h i t s u p p o r t s t o b low up t h e l i n e i n t e r m i t t e n t l y . A t p r e s e n t t h e bu rden o f t h e d e l a y e d l o a n repayments i s b e i n g c a r r i e d b y P o r t u g a l and t h e who le i s s u e i s c u r r e n t l y under n e g o t i a t i o n .

I t i s a p a r t o f t h e gove rnmen t ' s s t a t e d ene rgy p o l i c y t o u t i l i s e t h e enormous hydropower p o t e n t i a l t o meet t h e energy needs o f i n d u s t r i a1 and a g r o - i n d u s t r i a1 deve lopment . Cahora Bassa I, and when i t i s c o n s t r u c t e d Cahora Bassa I i , make t h i s e m i n e n t l y p o s s i b l e b u t a l s o p e r m i t t h e p r o v i s i o n o f cheap h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y t o o t h e r SADCC member s t a t e s . G iven t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g i n v e s t m e n t i n t h e dam has a l r e a d y been made t h e Cahora Bassa I 1 p r o j e c t mus t c e r t a i n l y r a t e as b e i n g one o f t h e cheapes t p o t e n t i a l sou rces o f e l e c t r i c i t y a v a i l a b l e i n t h e r e g i o n .

Gas. T$e P2nde g a s f i e l d i n t h e c e n t r e o f t h e c o u n t r y has 19 b i l l i C ( 1 0 ) m o f gas d e f i n i t e l y r e c o v e r a b l e and 60 b i l l i o n m p o t e n t i a1 l y r e c o v e r a b l e . Two o t h e r g a s f i e l ds e x i s t a t Temane and Bus i (see F i g u r e 1 . 3 ) . A s t u d y t o d e t e r m i n e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f

T A B L E 1 .16

End-Use Fue l Requ i rements Of E l e c t r i c i t y (Mi l l i o n s o f G i ga- J o u l e s )

r b a n Househo ld

u r a l Househo ld

g r i c u l t u r e

ndus t r y

ommer / Ins t

r a n s p o r t a t i o n

o t a l Demand

c o n s t r u c t i n g a p l a n t t o manu fac tu re ammonia u r e a f e r t i l i s e r f r o m t h e Pande g a s f i e l d was due t o be p r e s e n t e d i n 1982. Gas c o u l d a l s o be used i n p r o j e c t e d i r o n o r e p r o c e s s i n g .

A s e i s m o l o g i c a l s t u d y o f t h e who le c o u n t r y i s p1 anned t o c l a r i f y gas r e s e r v e s . I f l a r g e d e p o s i t s a r e f o u n d an e x t e n s i v e gas ne twork c o v e r i n g t h e m a j o r c i t i e s c o u l d be f e a s i b l e . As y e t t h e r e has n o t been a g r e a t dea l o f success i n p r o d u c i n g p e t r o l e u m f r o m gas, so t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f f i n d i n g a s u b s t i t u t e f o r p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s i s n o t as y e t v e r y p r o m i s i n g . I t a l y i s f u n d i n g a s t u d y i n t o t h e use o f compressed gas f o r v e h i c l e s , however.

O i l . Conce rn ing a l l , a p r e l i m i n a r y s u r v e y o f t h e Rovuma - B a s i n i n t h e n o r t h - e a s t o f t h e c o u n t r y was comp le ted i n November 1981 and i t c l e a r l y i n d i c a t e d t h e p resence o f a l a r g e sed imen ta ry b a s i n . O i l companies have been i n v i t e d t o submi t f o r m a l p r o p o s a l s f o r e x p l o r a t i o n a c t i v i t e s . A new e x p l o r a t i o n l a w des igned t o p r o v i d e a f ramework f o r t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f t h e o i l companies, s i m i l a r t o t h a t s ~ ~ c c e s s f u l l y adop ted b y Ango la , has come i n t o e f f e c t . The n e w l y - c r e a t e d Mozambique N a t i o n a l Hydrocarbon E n t e r p r i s e w i l l a l l o c a t e a l l concess ions and o f f e r v a r i o u s fo rms o f a s s o c i a t i o n i n c l u d i n g s e r v i c e c o n t r a c t s , j o i n t v e n t u r e s and p r o d u c t i o n s h a r i n g .

A p i p e l i n e pumping o i l f r o m B e i r a t o Zimbabwe renewed o p e r a t i o n s i n 1982. The 288 km l i n e was c l o s e d when i n t e r n a t i o n a l s a n c t i o n s were a p p l i e d t o Rhodes ia i n 1966. The p o r t o f B e i r a w i l l hand le a t l e a s t one m i l l i o n t o n s o f t a n k e r - b o r n e p e t r o l and d i e s e l f u e l a y e a r f o r Zimbabwe. Some r e p o r t s have suggested t h a t a t p r e s e n t Zimbabwe g e t s a l l o f i t s d i e s e l f u e l , 30 p e r c e n t o f i t s p e t r o l and h a l f o f i t s a v i a t i o n f u e l f r o m o r t h r o u g h South A f r i c a ; hence t h e f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e p i p e l i n e w i l ? be o f enormous b e n e f i t t o Zimbabwe.

Government o f f i c i a l s i n Malawi , t owards t h e end o f 1981, s a i d t h a t t h e y were n e g o t i a t i n g w i t h Zimbabwe t o a r range t o i m p o r t t h e i r f u e l needs - a b o u t 300,000 t o n s p e r y e a r - th rough t h e p i p e l i n e . An immedia te advantage c o u l d be g a i n e d b y r e n o v a t i n g and i m p r o v i n g t h e s t o r a g e f a c i l i t i e s a t t h e p o r t o f B e i r a .

The e x i s t i n g o i l r e f i n e r y a t Maputo has an annua l c a p a c i t y o f 800,000 t o n s . T a b l e 1 .17 g i v e s t h e 1978 p r o d u c t i o n f i g u r e s . Depending on t h e sou rce o f t h e c rude o i ! i m p o r t e d , t h e p a r t i c u l a r o f f - t a k e o f t h e r e f i n e r y w i l l d i f f e r . In 1982 t h e c r u d e was such t h a t t h e r e was a l o w o f f - t a k e o f gas f o r b o t t l i n g and t h i s c o n s i d e r a b l y h e i g h t e n e d t h e b o t t l e d gas s h o r t a g e . As men t i oned i n t h i s c h a p t e r , t h e p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t b i l l f o r 1979 accoun ted f o r 40 p e r c e n t o f a l l e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . C l e a r l y t h e h ~ g h c o s t o f o i l i m p o r t s was a m a j o r c o n t r i b u t i n g f a c t o r t o t h e f o re :gn exchange c r i s i s .

G iven t h e e x t e n s i v e sugar p r o d u c t i o n i n Mozambiquel sugar- cane p roduced e t h a n o l c o u l d be one p o s s i b i l i t y f o r r e d u c i n g t h e f u e l i m p o r t b i l l .

TABLE 17

1978 Ref inery Production Figures

Diesel Pe t ro l P a r a f f i n Fuel Oil Gas ( f o r b o t t l i n g ) J e t Fuel 1 D i verse

Tons -

TOTAL 554,000

Imports

Crude Oil Diesel J e t Fuel l

Exports

Diesel Pe t ro l J e t Fuel l Fuel Oil Mar?ne Diesel

TOTAL 261,000 -P-- -- - --

CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

I n t h i s f i n a l s e c t i o n we a im t o draw o u t some o f t h e ma in c o n c l u s i o n s f r o m t h i s p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d y , and p ropose f o r f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n c e r t a i n p r o v i s i o n a l p o l i c y recommendat ions . I t i s c l e a r l y i m p o r t a n t t o b u i l d up d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on a1 l energy sou rces and n o t j u s t on t h e mos t o b v i o u s ones such as o i l and e l e c t r i c i t y . On l y i n t h i s way can a n a t i o n a l ene rgy s t r a t e g y be c r e a t e d . By a p p r o a c h i n g t h e p r o b l e m i n i t i a l l y f r o m t h e demand s i d e , we were a b l e t o g a i n a p i c t u r e o f wha t e n e r g y was needed, i n wha t q u a n t i t i e s , f o r e v e r y s e c t o r , i n o r d e r t o gua ran tee t h e f u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e e x i s t i n g economy and s o c i e t y . A d d i t i o n a l e n e r g y i n p u t s a r e r e q u i r e d t o meet t h e g r o w i n g p o p u l a t i o n demand and t o d i r e c t t h e economy on t h e g o v e r n m e n t ' s chosen deve lopment t r a j e c t o r y . We w i l l b e g i n b y l o o k i n g a t t h e c o u n t r y ' s m a j o r e n e r g y source, wood, t h e n a t each o f t h e o t h e r f u e l s i n t u r n .

Amongst t h e many recommendat ions l a i d o u t i n t h e T h i r d Congress Economic D i r e c t i v e s f o r t h e f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , t h e f o l l o w i n g may be h i g h 1 i g h t e d . F i r s t , t h e need t o c a r r y o u t a f o r e s t r y r e c o n n a i s s a n c e o f t h e c o u n t r y , i n p a r t i c u l a r b y c a r r y i n g o u t f o r e s t i n v e n t o r i e s i n a reas s e l e c t e d f o r t h e i r r e c o g n i s e d f o r e s t p o t e n t i a l . T h i s t a s k was p a r t i a l l y comp le ted w i t h t h e FAO r e p o r t o f 1981, b u t f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s were n o t t h e c e n t r a l f o c u s .

Some measures have a l r e a d y been t a k e n c o n c e r n i n g a second d i r e c t i v e t o e s t a b l i s h a reas o f f o r e s t r e g e n e r a t i o n , t o assu re c o n t i n u i t y o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s . But , as we have seen, t h i s has nowhere been s u f f i c i e n t t o meet t h e demand, i n p a r t i c u l a r g i v e n t h e c r i s i s a f f e c t i n g o t h e r commerc ia l f u e l sources, t h a t i s b o t t l e d gas s h o r t a g e s and t h e p e r i o d i c i n t e r r u p t i o n o f e l e c t r i c i t y supp l y , b o t h o f w h i c h have s e v e r e l y a f f e c t e d B e i r a , say, and d r a s t i c a l l y i n c r e a s e d t h e p r e s s u r e on l o c a l f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s .

S imi l a r l y, t h e programme o f p r o m o t i ng n a t u r a l r e g e n e r a t i o n o r p r o t e c t i v e a f f o r e s t a t i o n s i n denuded a r e a s where e r o s i o n i s becoming c r i t i c a l , has s t i l l a l o n g way t o go. One o f t h e e s s e n t i a l s h o r t c o m i n g s i n t h e f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e 1977 Economic D i r e c t i v e s i s i n t h e " e s t a b l i shment o f f o r e s t r y c e n t r e s , n o t a b l y i n t h e communal v i l l a g e s , des igned t o f a c i l i t a t e t h e s u p p l y o f wood p r o d u c t s t o l o c a l popu l a t i o n s and t o v a l o r i s e n e i g h b o u r i n g n a t u r a l f o r e s t s " . I n f a c t t h e r e has been no c o n c e r t e d and i n t e g r a t e d r u r a l e n e r g y p o l i c y a t a l l , w h i c h w o u l d appear e s s e n t i a l g i v e n t h e c l e a r d i r e c t i v e i n t h e Ten Year P l a n t o g i v e s o c i a l i s a t i o n o f t h e c o u n t r y s i d e t h e h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y . S ta tements b y government and p a r t y o f f i c i a l s i n 1982 have o n l y r e i n f o r c e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h i s d i r e c t i v e .

Conce rn ing wood s u p p l y , we w o u l d recommend:

1. Pay ing s e r i o u s a t t e n t i o n t o r u r a l e n e r g y needs, i n c l u d i n g t h e u n d e r t a k i n g o f a s t u d y t o l o o k a t a l l a s p e c t s o f r u r a l ene rgy use, w i t h s p e c i a l r e f e r e n c e t o t h e communal v i l l a g e s .

2. The i n t r o d u c t i o n o f communal w o o d l o t s o f f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s i n a reas o f f u e l w o o d sho r tage .

3. G r e a t e r measures aimed a t c o n s e r v a t i o n - i n c l u d i n g an e x t e n s i o n o f t h e consc iousness r a i s i n g work o f t h e " N a t i o n a l Campaign f o r t h e C o n t r o l o f B u r n i n g " and " P r e v e n t i o n o f B u r n i n g P r o j e c t " (FO-12). E a r l y d r y season b u r n i n g t h r o u g h o u t t h e miombo wood1 and wou ld gene ra l l y p r o v i d e a p r o t e c t i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e measure. However, t h e o p t i m a l t i m e t o c o n t r o l b u r n i n g i s a lways b e s t d e c i d e d l o c a l l y .

4 . I n v e s t i g a t e more e f f i c i e n t s t o v e s t o conse rve wood.

5 . Encourage t h e deve lopment o f a p p r o p r i a t e t e c h n o l o g y f o r r u r a l and u r b a n e n e r g y c o n s e r v a t i o n and use. A t p r e s e n t t h e r e i s h a r d l y any work b e i n g done on a p p r o p r i a t e ene rgy t e c h n o l o g y u s i n g renewab le sou rces o f ene rgy w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y . The F o u r t h Congress h e l d i n 1983 gave p a r t i c u l a r emphasis t o t h i s d imens ion .

6 . F u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e s u p p l y o f f u e l w o o d and c h a r c o a l t o t h e u rban p o p u l a t i o n g i v e n i t s r a p i d expans ion and i n t e r r u p t i o n s i n o t h e r domes t i c ene rgy supp l i es.

Conce rn ing e l e c t r i c i t y , we p ropose :

1. T h a t s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n be g i v e n t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f u s i n g t h e enormous hydropower p o t e n t i a l o f Cahora Bassa f o r r e g i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y n e t w o r k . V a r i o u s p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t f o r l e v e l s o f i n t e g r a t i o n t h a t c o u l d o c c u r and t h e s e s h o u l d be e x p l o r e d i n d e t a i l . The s t u d y comp le ted i n 1982 on Cahora Bassa I 1 p r o v i d e s a u s e f u l s t e p i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n . L i n k i n g p a r t o f t h e s a l e o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y t o a t r a d e agreement may be one way o f r e s o l v i n g t h e e x p o r t p rob lems o f f e l l o w SADCC member s t a t e s , and mak ing t h e b e n e f i t s o f c o - o p e r a t i o n more a t t r a c t i v e t o a l l p a r t i e s .

2 . T h a t o t h e r more modest schemes f o r r e g i o n a l c o - o p e r a t i o n o v e r e l e c t r i c i t y a r e f e a s i b l e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , u s i n g t h e spa re p o t e n t i a l a t Chicamba i n Manica P rov ince , w h i c h w i l l be i n c r e a s e d t o 100 MW when t h e Cahora Bassa l i n k l i n e i s comple ted, t o s u p p l y Mu ta re and t h e a r e a t o t h e s o u t h o f Mu ta re i n Zimbabwe. The a1 t e r n a t i v e i s a much h i g h e r l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t on t h e Zimbabwe s i d e . The i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d w o u l d be r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l , t h e b e n e f i t s w o u l d be a v a i l a b l e i n t h e s h o r t t e r m and t h e s e c u r i t y o f s u p p l y i n b o t h c o u n t r i e s woul d be i n c r e a s e d .

Conce rn ing o i l :

i . Given t h e h i g h c o s t o f i m p o r t i n g o i l , c a r e mus t be taken t o ensu re t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d , e s p e c i a l l y i n c a p i t a l i n t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i a l and a g r i c u l t u r a l e n t e r p r i s e s , w a r r a n t t h e f o r e i g n exchange e x p e n d i t u r e .

2 . E thano l may be a p o s s i b l e p a r t i a l s u b s t i t u t e f o r o i l .

3 . The r e p a i r and improvement o f o i l s t ~ r a g e t a n k s a t E e i r a may a i d b o t h Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique.

4 . Some e x i s t i n g o i l e n d- u s e r ' s c o u l d s u b s t i t u t e t h e i r ene rgy needs, as w i t h t h e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s o u t h e r n r a i l w a y network , o r c r e a t i n g an e l e c t r i c tramway sys tem i n t h e c i t i e s .

Conce rn ing c o a l :

1. I m p r o v i n g t r a n s p o r t a t i o n l i n k s f r o m t h e P r o v i n c e o f Te te wnere e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e c o a l d e p o s i t s a re , i s an u r g e n t n e c e s s i t y . R i v e r as w e l l as r a i l t r a n s p o r t may be employed t o t h i s end.

General recommendat i ons

1. A r a p i d expans ion o f ene rgy s u p p l i e s i m p l i e s a heavy i n v e s t m e n t programme and gua ran tees o f r e t u r n wou ld be c a l l e d f o r by i n v e s t o r s . T h i s may be a c o n s t r a i n i n g f a c t o r u n l e s s a t t e n t i o n i s p a i d i o t h e r e a l i s t i c f o r e i g n exchange e a r n i n g p o t e n t i a l .

2 . G e n e r a l l y , a more i n t e g r a t e d e p e r g y p01 i c y may l e a d t o f u e l economies.

3 . C o n s e r v a t i o n measures a r e r e q u i r e d i n a l l s e c t o r s ,

4 . Mozambique i s i n an i m p o r t a n t s t r a t e g i c p o s i t i o n t o a i d t r a n s p o r t and communicat ion i n t e g r a t i o n w i t h i n t h e SADCC. i n a d d i t i o n t o i t s v a l u a b l e p o r t , r a i l w a y and r o a d i n f r a s t r u c t u r e w h i c h can f a c i l i t a t e t h e i m p o r t s and e x p o r t s o f t h e SADCC member s t a t e s , i t i s a l s o i n a p o t e n t i a l p o s i t i o n t o p r o v i d e some o f t h e ene rgy r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e c t o r . Cahora Bassa c o u l d s u p p l y t h e power f o r e l e c t r i f i c a t i o ? of t h e r a i l w a y s , M o a t i z e and f u t u r e coa l mines i n T e t e c o u l d be u t i l i s e d f o r steam t r a i n s i n t h e s h o r t t o medium te rm. Reg iona l t r a n s p o r t and e n e r g y i n t e g r a t i o n c o u l d t h e r e f o r e be comp l imen ta ry ,

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --

We w o u l d s p e c i a l l y l i k e t o t hank t h e f o l l o w i n g peop le f o r t h e h e l p t h e y gave I n p r e p a r i n g t h i s s t u d y ; Jose N i c o l a u , Jo rge F r e i t o s and o t h e r members o f s t a f f i n E l e c t r i c i d a d e de Mocambique; Ylar io Lobo o f CARBOMAC; F e r r e i r a de C a s t r o o f Dep de F l o r e s t a s ; S r . F o r j a s and Jose Muge o f Hab i t acao ; Roe l f Voortman o f OiNOGECA Cav los Cardosa o f A I M ; S r . V i o l a o-F PETROMOC and v e r y many o t h e r p e o p l e n o t named h e r e . W i t h o u t t h e warm r e c e p t i o n and h e l p f u l c o o p e r a t i o n o f a l l t h o s e c o n t a c t e d , t b i s s t u d y c o > l d n o t have been cornpl e t e d .

SELECTED SOURCES

A f r i c a n Economic D i g e s t

AIM B u l l e t i n

Census (1980)

Comissao Nac iona l Do P1 ano, Mocambique. In formacao E s t a t i s t i c a 1980/81, Maputo, Junho 1982

Departamento de F l o r e s t a s E Fauna B r a v i a ( v a r i o u s b r i e f s )

E l e c t r i c i d a d e de Mocambique ( a r c h i v e )

F a c t s and Repor t s , H o l l a n d

FAO, P e r s p e c t i v e s f o r F o r e s t r y Development i n Mozambique, Rome, 1978

FAO, A R e p o r t on Charcoal P r o d u c t i o n i n Maputo, Rome, 1978

FAO/UNDP, Maputo Fuelwood P r o j e c t . A S tudy o f S i t e S e l e c t i o n f o r Communi ty Development, May 1979

FAO, Mozambique F o r e s t r y P r o j e c t I d e n t i f i c a t i o n M iss ion , Rome, 1979

FAO, F o r e s t Resources o f T r o p i c a l A f r i c a , Count ry B r i e f s , Rome, 1981

FAO, E v a l u a c i o n De Los Recursos F o r e s t a l e s De La R e p u b l i c a P o p u l a r De Mozambique, Rome, 1981

F i n a n c i a1 Times -

Eduardo Mondl ane, 1977

Munslow, B. Mozambique: The Revo lu t i o r r and I t s O r i g i n s , Longman, London, 1982

N o t i c i as

P r i m e i r a Reuniao Nac iona l De Planeamento Urbano - J u l h o 1982, S i t u a c a o Das Cidades De Mocambique

19. SIDAIVIAK, N a t i o n a l T r a n s p o r t Survey ( s e v e r a l volumes), 1978

20. Tempo

21. U n i t e d Na t ions , Va r ious S t a t i s t i c a l Sources

22. Westman, B. SIDA Landanalys . Mozambique, d r a f t , 1981

23. Wor ld Bank, Wor ld Development Repor t , v a r i o u s y e a r s

C H A P T E R 2

S W A Z l LAND

B Y

carry M u n s l OM

INTRODUCTION

I t was o n l y w i t h t h e o i l c r i s i s o f t h e 1970s t h a t s e r i o u s a t t e n t i o n was p a i d t o t h e prob lems o f e n e r g y and deve lopment . The e s c a l a t i n g c o s t o f i m p o r t e d o i l i s by f a r t h e mos t we l l - known a s p e c t o f t h e c r i s i s . Less w e l l known b u t j u s t as s e r i o u s i s t h e c r i s i s o f f ue lwood s c a r c i t y . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e FAO, A f r i c a i n 1980 had 55 m i l l i o n p e o p l e e x p e r i e n c i n g an a c u t e s c a r c i t y , 146 m i l l i o n a d e f i c i t and 112 m i l l i o n a p r o s p e c t i v e d e f i c i t . The Kingdom o f S w a z i l a n d has escaped n e i t h e r t h e o i l c r i s i s n o r t h e f ue lwood c r i s i s as t h i s i n i t i a l s t u d y r e v e a l s .

Energy p1 ays an e q u a l l y v i t a l r o l e i n t h e modern s e c t o r as w e l l as i n t h e r u r a l a reas o f t h e Swazi N a t i o n a l Land. I n t h e f o rmer t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f commercial e n e r g y sources o f s u p p l y i s v i t a l f o r power ing t h e economic deve lopment p rocess . The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f wood as a f r e e good i s v i t a l i n t h e r u r a l a reas where incomes a r e l o w t o p r o v i d e f a m i l i e s w i t h t h e a b s o l u t e e s s e n t i a l s o f l i f e - a cooked meal, warmth i n t h e w i n t e r , p o l e s f o r h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n and h o t w a t e r f o r purposes o f hyg iene .

T h i s r e p o r t b e g i n s b y p r o v i d i n g a s k e t c h o f t h e o v e r a l l economic s i t u a t i o n and p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . Then t h e e x i s t i n g demand f o r ene rgy i s a n a l y s e d s e c t o r b y s e c t o r w i t h p r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e y e a r 2000. T h i s enab les us t o see wha t i s r e q u i r e d s i m p l y t o meet e x i s t i n g needs and t h e i n c r e a s e d demand a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a g row ing p o p u l a t i o n and w i t h a c o n t i n u a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g economic g row th r a t e s . Sources o f s u p p l y a r e t h e n examined, f o l l o w e d by some c o n c l u d i n g o b s e r v a t i o n s and p o s s i b l e p o l i c y recommendat ions.

THE ECONOMIC BACKGROUND

2 The Kingdom o f S w a z i l a n d has a l a n d a r e a o f 17,364.4 km and shares a common f r o n t i e r w i t h Mozambique, a f e l l o w SADCC member s t a t e , i n a d d i t i o n t o South A f r i c a . I t s r e s i d e n t p o p u l a t i o n i n 1980 was 545,000 w i t h a g row th r a t e o f 3 .4 p e r c e n t p e r annum. A p p r o x i m a t e l y 85 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v e i n t h e r u r a l a reas and t h e b u l k o f t h e u rban p o p u l a t i o n l i v e i n t h e two main c e n t r e s o f Mbabane and M a n z i n i .

W i t h a GDP i n 1980 o f E.357 m i l l i o n t h e r e i s an e s t i m a t e d p e r c a p i t a income o f US $667 (when m i g r a n t s a r e i n c l u d e d ) . Swaz i l and f a l l s i n t o t h e l o w e r b r a c k e t o f t h e medium income d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s and t h e economy c l e a r l y had an i m p r e s s i v e r a t e o f g r o w t h i n t h e e a r l y pos t- independence p e r i o d . Growth has averaged o n l y 2 p e r c e n t s i n c e t h e T h i r d N a t i o n a l P l a n was i n t r o d u c e d i n 1978 however, hence w i t h an even h i g h e r p o p u l a t i o n g row th r a t e t h i s i m p l i e s a d e c r e a s i n g t r e n d i n p e r c a p i t a income.

H i s t o r i c a l l y t h e economy o f Swaz i l and has been dominated b y i t s South A f r i c a n n e i g h b o u r and even t o d a y t h e c o u n t r y f o rms p a r t

o f t h e Rand Mone ta ry Area and t h e Soat11 Af i - -can Customs Union. H i g h r a t e s o f ~ n f l a t i o n (20 p e r c e n t o r more ) have been i m p o r t e d i n t o t h e c o u n t r y a l o n g w i t h t h e 95 p e r c e n t o f normal ;mports t h a t S w a z i l a n d r e c e i v e s f r o m South A f r i c a . G i ven such s t r o n g t i e s r h e r e -1s c l e a r l y a case f o r l e s s e n i n g t h e degree o f dependence w i t h o u t c a u s i n g m a j o r d i s r u p t i o n s ? n t h e l i c k s w i t h South A f r i c a .

1-he Swazi econclmy i s e x t r e m e l y open w i t h an e x p o r t and i m p o r t r a t i o t o GLIP o f 60 t o 70 p e r c e n t . I t s e x p o r t s a r e essential:^ a g r i c t i l t u r a l , and, t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , m i n e r a l s . They compr i se suga r , wood p u l p , c i t r u s , canned f r u i t , meat and asbes tos ( see Tab: e 2 . 1 ) . Most a g r i c u l t u r a l e x p o r t s a r e produced by t n e p l a n t a t i o n and commercial f a r m i n g s e c t o r s and h a l f o f t h e c g u n t r y ' s e x p o r t e a r n i n g s come f r o m suga r . A l t h o u g h t h e huge t h i r d sugar complex a t Simunye was comp le ted i n t i rne t o r e a p t h e rewards o f t h e h i g b w o r l d p r i c e o f 1980, t h e subsequerr t d rop i n p r i c e has l e f t t h e econoniy r a t h e r v u l n e r a b l e . As T a b l e 2 . 1 shows, t h e b a l a n c e o f t r a d e d e f i c i t has been s t e a d i l y wo rsen ing .

The f i g u r e s f o r t h e pe rcen tage sha re o f Gross Domest ic P r o d u c t by k i n d of economic a c t i v i t y a r e g i v e n i r Tab ie 2 . 2 . As can be seen, m a n u f a c t u r i n g accobn ts f o r a q u a r t e r o f GDP, a n o t i ncons'i d e r a b l e amount f o r a deve? o p i ng c o u n t r y .

The economy o f Swaz i l and i s c h a r a c t e r i s e d by t h e e x i s t e n c e o f two d i s t i n c t b u t c l o s e 1 y i n t e r - r e 1 a t e d s e c t o r s . Mixed s u b s i s t e n c e a g r i c u l t u r e w i t h a sma l l marke ted s u r p l u s i s a key f e a t u r e o f t h e Swazi N a t i o n a l Land (SNL) and t h e o t h e r s e c t o r i s r e p r e s e n t e d by modern i n c ! u s t r i a l , m i n i n g and a g r i c u l t u r a l e n t e r p r i s e s . The SNL p r o v i d e s t h e l a b o u r t o work i n t h e modern s e c t o r , b o t h i n s i d e Swaz i l and and a l s o i n South A f r i c a . W i t h 10 p e r c e ~ t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n a n n u a l l y wo r l t i ng abroad, i n 1975 say, a l m o s t a t n i r d o f a l l househo lds had an a d u l t male member w o r k i n g i q South A f r i c a . T w o- t h i r d s o f a17 homesteads have a t l e a s t one member i n wage employment and a h a l f o f a1 i homesteads r e c e i v e r e g u l a r r e m i t t a n c e s f r o m t h e i r absentee members.

There i s a r e 1 a t i o n s h i p o f i n te rdependence between t h e two s e c t o r s . F o r many o f t h e homesteads ( e s p e c i a l l y t h e p o o r e r ones) r e m i t t a n c e s may a c c o u n t f o r a ha1 f o f t h e i r t o t a l i r i cone and t h i s i s wha t t h e y g a i n by t h e i n t e r - r e l a t i o n s h i p . A t t h e same t ime , t h e modern s e c t o r g a i n s because i t can a f f o r d t o pay cheaper wages as i t does n o t have t o c a r r y t h e c o s t o f s o c i a l s e c u r i t y and o l d age ~ r o v i s i o n f o r i t s wo rke rs , as t h i s i s p r o v i d e d by t h e SNL. C l e a r l y t'iert, t h e ~ o d e r n s e c t o r and t h e p q l e l i v i n g on t h e SNL b e n e f i t i f t h e SNL c o n t i n u e s t o p r o v i d e -. t h e b a s i c s o f l i f e ' i n c l u d i n g fooa , and woo'd as an ene rgy and c o n s t r u c t i o n r e s o u r c e t o keep t h e homestead g o i n g . The SNL, i n t h e m i d d l e v e l d e s p e c i a l l y , i s showing s e r i o u s s i g n s o f no l o n g e r b e i n g a b l e t o p r c v i de t h e s e two commod i t i es f o r peop le ' S f u t u r e needs.

A s e r i o u s p rob lem on t h e SNL i s o v e r g r a z i n g , w i t h Swaz i l and h a v i n g t h e h i g h e s t d e n s i t y o f c a t t l e i n A f r i c a . About 60 pe r c e n t o f a l ? SNL f a r m e r s own c a t t l e and t h e average h e r d s:ze i s 19 head. Given t h e p r e s e n t commurial 1 and e@ni i re sys tem w i t h i n t h e

TABLE 2.1

Main Economic I n d i c a t o r s (1975 t o 1980)

Ice o f Trade (Em) 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980

+ t s ( f . o . b . ) 143.7 166.2 156.9 170.9 195.3 263.9 ~ t s ( c . 1 . f . ) 131.6 174.1 194.8 270.8 366.0 463.5 i c e 12.1 -7.9 -37.9 -99.9 -170.7 -199.6 ? n t a /c -9.9 -57.4 -64.7 -84.6 -66.6 -31.3 ;tment and 3pi t a l a /c 47.1 2.6 20.5 30.3 68.3 36.3 I change i n

r e s e r v e s -32.1 -27.8 -21.9 -17.1 1.3 -50.7

E x p o r t s (Em)

80.0 54.5 51.8 59.6 69.1 128.4 Pul P 12.4 39.6 30.0 27.1 28.2 36.8 o r e 11.9 12.2 9.2 6.2 5.3 3.7

, t o s 9.2 13.9 14.9 18.2 17.5 15.6 IS 4.5 4.5 10.4 7.2 9.4 7.6 !d f r u i t 3.6 5.0 5.7 8.2 9.2 9.3

1.6 4.5 4.2 6.4 9.1 8.0

gn Exchange Reserves ($m)*

r e s e r v e s 91.43 110.2 94.0 132.4 169.5 189.2

i Year F i g u r e s ($m)

TABLE 2 . 2

Gross Domest ic P r o d u c t By Economic A c t i v i t y Fo r 1980 ( i n pe rcen tage s h a r e s )

A g r i c u l t u r e and F o r e s t r y 23.3

M in ing , Q u a r r y i n g 3 .9

M a n u f a c t u r i n g 24.7

C o n s t r u c t i o n 3 .6

Pub1 i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( c e n t r a l 13.3

D i s t r i b u t i o n ( h o t e l s and r e s t a u r a n t s ) 11 .1

Other S e c t o r s ( t r a n s p o r t , bank ing, i nsu rance , r e a l e s t a t e , b u s i n e s s s e r v i c e s , pe rsona l s e r v i c e s , e t c . ) 19.9

Source: Depar tment o f Economic P l a n n i n g and S t a t i s t i c s , 1982.

e x i s t i n g economic framework, a t t e m p t s a t d e s t o c k i n g and p a s t u r e improvement have t h u s f a r f a i l e d . Peop le see t h e i r s e c u r i t y l y i n g i n t h e expans ion o f t h e i r he rd . B u t i t has been e s t i m a t e d t h a t i f p r e s e n t g r a z i n g r a t e s c o n t i n u e , 20 p e r c e n t o f SNL s o i l s w i l l be

o i r r e t r i e v a b l y d e s t r o y e d w i t h i n t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s . An e c o l o g i c a l c r i s i s i s t h e r e f o r e l oom ing .

The b u r n i n g o f t h e l a n d t o b r i n g f o r t h f r e s h g r a s s f o r t h e c a t t l e has a i d e d t h e e r o s i o n p rocess and as we demons t ra te i n t h e subsequent s e c t i o n , has l e d t o a s e r i o u s fue lwood s h o r t a g e i n c e r t a i n a r e a s .

As t h e Swazi government p r e p a r e s t o draw up i t s F o u r t h N a t i o n a l Development P lan , t o be i n i t i a t e d i n 1983, t h e above prob lems w i l l c e r t a i n l y f i g u r e p r o m i n e n t l y i n i t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . A m a j o r c o n s t r a i n t on t h e expec ted r a t e s o f g r o w t h d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d o f t h e T h i r d P l a n was n o t o n l y l o w p roduce r p r i c e s f o r e x p o r t s and a h i g h i m p o r t b i l l , b u t t h e l a c k o f r esponse o f t r a d i t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e SNL, w i t h p r o d u c t i v i t y r e m a i n i n g l ow .

However, i n s p i t e o f t h e above c o n s t r a i n t s , t h e Swazi economy g e n e r a l l y l o o k s q u i t e hea l t h y and h i g h l e v e l s o f i n v e s t m e n t have o c c u r r e d . The c o u n t r y i s r i c h i n c o a l r e s e r v e s and m o s t o f t h e s e as y e t r e m a i n untapped. A l t h o u g h t h e i r o n o r e mine has c l o s e d , asbes tos p r o d u c t i o n i s s t i l l c o n t i n u i n g . Huge i r r i g a t i o n schemes on t h e l o w v e l d a r e mak ing mass i ve p r o d u c t i o n o f suga r cane p o s s i b l e and t h e e x c e l l e n t c l i m a t e f o r t i m b e r i n t h e h i g h v e l d ensu res a c o n t i n u e d v i t a l i t y f o r t h e p u l p i n d u s t r y .

We t u r n now t o f o c u s s p e c i f i c a l l y on t h e ene rgy d imens ion , d r a w i n g on some o f t h e e lemen ts c o n t a i n e d i n t h e f o r e g o i n g d i s c u s s i o n .

ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR

I n t h i s s e c t i o n we examine e x i s t i n g e n e r g y demand b y s e c t o r i n c l u d i n g commerci a1 and non-commerci a1 ene rgy consumpt ion. F r e q u e n t l y i n t h e p a s t t h e l a t t e r has been o m i t t e d o r o n l y n o m i n a l l y r e v i e w e d i n t h e v a r i o u s s t u d i e s . Tab les 2 . 3 and 2 . 4 g i v e t h e t o t a l breakdown and p r o j e c t i o n s .

The i m p o r t a n c e o f app roach ing t h e p rob lem f r o m t h e demand s i d e i s t h a t i t enab les p o l i c y - m a k e r s t o g a i n an u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f p r e s e n t needs and t h e i n p u t s r e q u i r e d t o keep t h e e x i s t i n g economy and s o c i e t y f u n c t i o n i n g . By a p p r o a c h i n g t h e p r o b l e m o f ene rgy e s s e n t i a l l y f r o m t h e s u p p l y s i d e , e r r o r s can emerge. T h i s was t h e case i n a r e c e n t ene rqy s t u d y o f Swaz i l and (see Swaz i l and, Energy M a s t e r p l an, An i n t e r i m k e p o r t ) , w h i c h d e d i c e d f r o m a s u p p l y o f c o a l t h a t c o u l d n o t be accoun ted f o r any o t h e r way i n t h e i r - c a i c u l a t i o n s , t h a t i t was consumed i n t h k r u r a l a reas o f Swaz i l and . Hence c o a l was s a i d t o accoun t f o r 2 7 p e r c e n t o f r u r a l e n e r g y consumpt ion. Everyone who has e v e r been i n

TABLE 2.3

Fue l Consumption By S e c t o r ( m i l l i o n s o f G i g a- J o u l e s )

Leve l /Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

S e c t o r URBAN HOUSEHOLD 0 . 7 1.1 1 . 5 2 .0 2 .4

Woodf u e l 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 .2 0 .2 0 . 3 Kerosene 0 . 1 0.2 0 .2 0 . 3 0 . 4 E l e c t r i c i t y 0 .2 0 .3 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 .6 Coal 0 .3 0.5 0 . 7 0 . 8 1 . 0 LPG 0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1

S e c t o r RURAL HOUSEHOLD 4.5 4 .9 5 .3 6 . 1 6 .8

Woodf be? 4 . 0 4 .4 4 . 8 5 . 5 6 .2 Dung/Resi due 0 . 2 0 .2 0 . 2 0 .2 0.3 Kerosene 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 E l e c t r i c i t y 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 .0 Coal 0 . 1 0 .2 0 . 2 0 .2 0 .2

S e c t o r AGRICULTURE

Gasol i ne D i e s e l E l e c t r i c i t y

S e c t o r INDUSTRY

Woodfuel Dung/Residue Wood I n d u s t r i a l Kerosene R e s i d u a l O i ? E l e c t r i c i t y Coal

S e c t o r COMMER/INST

Woodf u e l Res idua l O i l E l e c t r i c i t y Coal

S e c t o r TRANSPORTATION 3 . 3 3 . 9 4 . 5 5 . 3 6 . 2

Gas01 i ne 1 . 4 1 .6 1 . 9 2.2 2.6 D i e s e l 1 . 2 1 . 4 1 . 7 2 .0 2.2 A v i a t i o n Fue l 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 .1 0 .2 0 .2 Coal 0 .6 0 .7 0 . 8 1 . 0 1 . 2

D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consurnptlon Of Energy For 1980 ( m i l l i o n s o f G iga- Jou les )

Pe t ro E lec- Produc t t r i c i t y I n d . Wood Fuelwood Residue Coal T o t a l

URBAN HOUSEHOLD 0.15 0.18 0 . 0 0.08 0 . 0 0.32 0.73 Cooking 0.06 0 .00 0.0 0.05 0 . 0 0.03 0.14 L1 g h t i ng 0.09 0.06 0.0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0.15 Other 0 . 0 0.12 0 . 0 0.04 0 . 0 0.29 0.44

RURAL HOUSEHOLD Cooking Other

AGRICULTURE Large Smal l

INDUSTRY 1.32 0.79 0.17 4.32 5 .50 1.96 14.06 Large 1.30 0.79 0.0 3.30 5.50 1.96 12.85 Urban I n f o r m a l 0.01 0 . 0 0.0 0.02 0 . 0 0 . 0 0.03 Rura l Cot tage 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 .0 0.76 0 . 0 0 . 0 0.76 C o n s t r u c t i o n 0.02 0 . 0 0.17 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0.18 Rura l Const 0.0 0 . 0 0.0 0.24 0 . 0 0 . 0 0.24

TRANSPORTATION Road

P r i v a t e Pub1 i c

Rai i Passenger F r e i g h t

AI r

TOTAL DEMAND 4.67 1.64 0.17 8.47 5 . 7 2 3.29 23.94

t h e c o u n t r y s i d e knows t h a t t h i s i s j u s t n o t t h e case. Wood has a lways, and s t i l l does, p r o v i d e t h e e s s e n t i a l f u e l sou rce f o r c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g i n t h e r u r a l homestead. Coal i s o n l y a m a r g i n a l f u e l sou rce a c c o u n t i n g f o r a t i n y p a r t o f r u r a l domes t i c e n e r g y consumpt ion a c c o r d i n g t o o u r e s t i m a t e s ( see T a b l e 2 . 4 ) .

We b e g i n o u r a n a l y s i s o f e n e r g y demand w i t h i n d u s t r i a l consumpt ion, as t h i s accoun ts f o r 59 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l (see T a b l e 2 . 5 ) . T h i s i s a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n t h a n i s f o u n d i n most A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s and i s accounted f o r b o t h by t h e sma l l s i z e o f t h e c o u n t r y and t h e e x t e n s i v e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r f o u n d w i t h i n i t .

The second m o s t i m p o r t a n t consumpt ion s e c t o r i s t h e domes t i c one and t h i s has p r e v i o u s l y been v e r y l i t t l e resea rched . T h i s accoun ts f o r o v e r o n e - f i f t h o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion; and t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , a c c o u n t i n g f o r 1 3 . 8 p e r c e n t , comes t h i r d . A g r i c u l t u r e and Commercial / I n s t i t u t i o n a l b o t h accoun t f o r s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n 3 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l consumpt ion.

I f we examine consumpt ion by f u e l sou rce t h e n t h e p i c t u r e i s r a t h e r s u r p r i s i n g i n one p a r t i c u l a r r e s p e c t ( see T a b l e 2 . 6 ) . Woodfuel accoun ts f o r 35.7 p e r c e n t o f end use f u e l consumpt ion and c r o p r e s i d u e / d u n g f o r 2 3 . 8 p e r c e n t . G iven t h e l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion b y i n d u s t r y i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o f i n d two ene rgy sou rces c l o s e l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l e s s advanced economy p r o v i d i n g between them v i r t u a l l y 60 p e r c e n t o f a l l e n e r g y consumed. The r e a s o n f o r t h i s i s t h a t Swazi l a n d ' s i n d u s t r y i s p r i n c i p a l l y suga r and wood p u l p p r o c e s s i n g and b o t h commod i t i es a r e a l s o f u e l r e s o u r c e s .

Coal i s t h e t h i r d mos t i m p o r t a n t ene rgy sou rce consumed and t h e v a r i o u s p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s and e l e c t r i c i t y accoun t f o r t h e rema inde r . I n d u s t r i a1 Energy Consumption.

I n d u s t r i a l e n e r g y accoun ted f o r 59 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l e n e r g y consumed i n Swaz i l and i n 1980. T h i s h i g h f i g u r e r e f l e c t s t h e r e 1 a t i v e l y l a r g e r o l e p1 ayed b y t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r w i t h i n t h e o v e r a l l economy. One d i s t i n g u i s h i n g f e a t u r e o f i n d u s t r i a1 e n e r g y consumpt ion, as p r e v i o u s 1 y p o i n t e d o u t , i s t h a t two o f t h e key i n d u s t r i e s produce p r o d u c t s w h i c h a r e a l s o sources o f f u e l , t h a t i s wood and suga r .

The sugar m i l l s consumed a v a r i e t y o f ene rgy f o rms : bagasse, c o a l ( d o m e s t i c and i m p o r t e d ) , s e l f - g e n e r a t e d and Swaz i l and E l e c t r i c i t y Board (SEB) e l e c t r i c i t y . Most o f t h e bagasse produced i n t h e e x t r a c t i o n o f suga r i s f i r e d i n t h e b o i l e r s . T h i s i n d u s t r y i s i n p a r t s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t i n energy , w h i c h i s s i g n i f i c a n t g i v e n t h a t i t i s t h e h i g h e s t consumer o f e n e r g y i n t h e s e c t o r .

The Usu tu P u l p Company i s t h e second m o s t i m p o r t a n t energy consumer. Here aga in , we f i n d t h a t a l m o s t t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t h e ene rgy i n p u t t o t h e p u l p m i l l was p r o v i d e d by waste p r o d u c t s o f t h e p r o d u c t i o n p rocess , n o t a b l y b l a c k l i q u o r s o l i d s and waste wood. We a l s o f i n d t h a t t h e Timber I n d u s t r y ' s ene rgy c3nsumpt ion

TABLE 2.5

Energy Demand By S e c t o r ( p e r c e n t a g e s h a r e s )

Ca tego ry 1980 2000

Urban Househo ld 2 .9

Ru ra l Househo ld 18.8

A g r i c u l t u r e 2 .9

I ndus t r y 5 9

Commercial / I n s t i t u t i o n a l 2 .9

T r a n s p o r t 13 .8

100.3*

* S e c t o r a l pe rcen tages a r e rounded hence t h e t o t a l does n o t equa l 100.

TABLE 2.6

End Use Fue l Consumption F o r 1980 ( p e r c e n t a g e s h a r e s )

Ca tego ry Pe rcen tage

Woodf u e l

Charcoa l

Dung/Resi due

I n d u s t r i a l Wood

Gasol i n e

Kerosene

D i e s e l

A v i a t i o n Fue l

Res idua l O i l

E l e c t r i c i t y

Coal

N a t u r a l Gas

LPG

R e f i n e d O i l

* F i g u r e s a r e rounded hence t h e t o t a l does n o t equa l 100

a l s o c a l l e d on i t s was te p r o d u c t s f o r a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f i t s ene rgy . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e f o o d and beverage i n d u s t r y and chemica l i n d u s t r i e s r e l y on c o a l ( m a i n l y i m p o r t e d ) and e l e c t r i c i t y .

The f u l l breakdown o f i n d u s t r i a l e n e r g y consumpt ion and t h e p r o j e c t i o n s t o t h e y e a r 2000 a r e t o be f o u n d i n Tab le 2 .4 .

A l t h o u g h t h e p u l p i n d u s t r y consumes a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f i t s own was te p r o d u c t s t h i s i s s t i l l o n l y a p r o p o r t i o n o f i t s p o t e n t i a l . Indeed, f o r e v e r y one t o n o f p u l p produced, 0 .75 t o n s o f was te a r e t h rown away. T h i s i n c l u d e s b a r k and o v e r s i z e d and u n d e r s i z e d c h i p s w h i c h t h e e x i s t i n g b o i l e r s do n o t have t h e c a p a c i t y t o t a k e . G:ven t h a t an average 160,000 t o n s o f p u l p a r e p roduced e v e r y y e a r , t h e n 120,000 t o n s o f f u e l i s b u r n t o f f i n t h e f i e l d s t o no u s e f u l pu rpose .

I f t h e Company m o d i f i e d i t s woodyard t h e n t h e p i c t u r e wou ld change. The e x i s t i n g c h i p p e r s a r e v e r y o l d - f a s h i o n e d and produce a l o t o f waste, w h i l s t modern c h i p p e r s have a v e r y l o w waste r a t e . There a r e mach ines i n Scand inav ia now w h i c h use a l l o f t h e b a r k was te . Ano the r way o f r e d u c i n g l o s t ene rgy wou ld be t o i n c r e a s e t h e s i z e of t h e e x i s t i n g b o i l e r s . These i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n s w i l l p r o b a b l y o q l y be made a f t e r t h e c u r r e n t s a l e o f t h e Company i s f i n a l i sed.

However, t h e Company has a l r e a d y i n v e s t e d i n a p roduce r gas u n i t t o r e p l a c e p r e v i o u s l y i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m . The p l a n t i s s l o w l y a d a p t i n g t o t h i s new i n n o v a t i o n . A1 though t h e u n i t s t i l l r e l i e s on South A f r i c a n i m p o r t e d coa l i t i s l i k e l y t o c u t down on f o r e i g n exchange e x p e n d i t u r e n a t i o n a l l y . Hence i n 1980, 28,163 t o n s o f heavy f u e l o i l were consumed, b u t i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 1982 o n l y 9,359 t o n s . I t w i l l e v e n t u a l l y reduce o i l use by abou t 80 p e r c e n t . Domest ic Energy Consumption.

The mos t s t r i k i n g f e a t u r e o f t h e domes t i c demand f o r ene rgy (see T a b l e s 2 .3 and 2 . 4 ) i s t h e c o n t i n u i n g heavy r e l i a n c e i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r on fue lwood . T h i s i s g e n e r a l l y g a t h e r e d as a f r e e good b y t h e women members o f t h e homestead. W i t h 85 p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e Kingdom o f Swaz i l and l i v i n g i n t h e r u r a l a reas, and g i v e n t h e ove rwhe lm ing m a j o r i t y o f t h e s e r e l y i n g on f i r e w o o d f o r t h e i r cook ing , h e a t i n g and background l i g h t i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s , c o n s i d e r a b l e a t t e n t i o n needs t o be focussed on t h i s p a r t i c u l a r a s p e c t o f t h e n a t i o n a l e n e r g y s i t u a t ~ o n . We w i : l examine t h e p a t t e r n o f r u r a l and u r b a n domes t i c consumpt ion s e p a r a t e l y , b e g i n n i n g w i t h t h e f o r m e r .

Ru ra l Oomest ic Energy Consumption.

Ru ra l domes t i c ene rgy consumpt ion accoun ts f o r 18.8 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l consumpt ion . Woodfuel accoun ts f o r 89 p e r c e n t o f t k i s and d u n g i r e s i d u e f o r 4 . 4 p e r cen t , a c c o r d i n g t o o u r c a ! c u l a t i c n s ( see T a b l e 2 . 3 ) . Kerosene and c o a l each on1 y accoun t f o r between

2 and 3 p e r c e n t o f r u r a l ene rgy consumpt ion . These f i g u r e s a r e t h e r e s u l t s o f a p r e l i m i n a r y s t u d y , and a r e c o m p a t i b l e w i t h f i n d i n g s e l sewhere on t h e c o n t i n e n t . I t needs t o be s t r e s s e d however t h a t t h e s e a r e e s t i m a t e s . G i ven t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h i s s e c t o r i n t h e o v e r a l l ene rgy ba lance , i t i s a p p a r e n t t h a t a d e t a i l e d s t u d y needs t o be c a r r i e d o u t t o a s c e r t a i n t h e p r e c i s e s i t u a t i o n , and t h i s i n i t i a l s t u d y aims t o draw a t t e n t i o n t o t h i s gap i n t h e c o u n t r y ' s s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a base. Indeed, t h e c o u n t r y ' s r e c e n t 1 y compl e t e d "Energy M a s t e r p l an" makes p r e c i s e l y t h e same p o i n t , c o n c e r n i n g t h e need f o r f u r t h e r i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h i s ene rgy a rea . Much more h a r d d a t a i s r e q u i r e d t o he1 p i n t h e gove rnmen t ' s p l a n n i n g e f f o r t .

Hav ing made t h i s q u a l i f i c a t i o n a b o u t t h e d a t a base, t h e r e i s u n d e n i a b l y an ove rwhe lm ing r e l i a n c e on f u e l w o o d as a domes t i c ene rgy r e s o u r c e . The p o p u l a t i o n b a s i c a l l y use near1 y a1 l i n d i g e n o u s t r e e s , as we1 l as e u c a l y p t u s and w a t t l e , f o r t h e i r f u e l wood needs.

G e n e r a l l y , wood i s t h e f u e l f o r c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g pu rposes . Dung i s used b u t g e n e r a l l y o n l y o u t s i d e t h e house and f o r p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s such as b e e r b rew ing . I t bu rns q u i t e h o t b u t p roduces t o o much smoke when used as an i n d o o r f u e l . P a r a f f i n ( i n t h e f o r m o f cand les o r l amps ) , and t o a sma l l e x t e n t e l e c t r i c i t y , p r o v i d e t h e l i g h t i n g .

The r u r a l domes t i c ene rgy s i t u a t i o n d i f f e r s somewhat f r o m one r e g i o n t o t h e n e x t , as we go on t o e x p l a i n .

Geog raph i ca l l y t h e c o u n t r y f a 1 1 s i n t o f o u r f a i r l y d i s t i n c t i v e zones g o i n g f r o m w e s t t o e a s t : t h e h i g h v e l d w i t h a n e a r t empera te c l ima te , t h e m i d d l e v e l d w h i c h i s d r i e r and s u b - t r o p i c a l , and t h e l o w v e l d w h i c h i s a l m o s t t r o p i c a l and sub-humid. A f o u r t h a rea , t h e Lubombo, i s much s m a l l e r t han t h e o t h e r s and i s a m i x o f m i d d l e and h i g h v e l d . Each o f t h e s e has i t s own p a r t i c u l a r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , and t h e p a t t e r n o f r u r a l domes t i c ene rgy consumpt ion has i t s own d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g s p e c i f i c f e a t u r e s . We w i l l examine t h e t h r e e main eco-zones i n t u r n .

P a r a d o x i c a l l y ( see F i g u r e Z.!), a1 t hough mos t o f t h e p1 a n t a t i o n s a r e i n t h e h i g h v e l d , and c o n d i t i o n s g e n e r a l l y f o r t r e e g r o w t h a r e e x c e l l e n t , t h e r e i s s t i l l a f ue lwood s h o r t a g e i n c e r t a i n a r e a s . I n t e n s i v e c a t t l e g r a z i n g and i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e e x i s t i n g l and t e n u r e sys tem and ownersh i p p a t t e r n s a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h i s s t a t e o f a f f a i r s .

O f t h e t r e e s o u t s i d e t h e p l a n t a t i o n s i n t h e h i g h v e l d , 75 p e r c e n t a r e w a t t l e and o n l y 2 5 p e r c e n t i n d i g e n o u s spec ies . G e n e r a l l y t h e p a t c h e s o f w a t t l e have an i n d i v i d u a l owner and n o t a l l p e o p l e have t h e i r own p a t c h . Those w i t h o u t a r e sometimes f o r c e d t o enc roach on o t h e r p e o p l e ' s pa tches , and i f caught , t h e y may be o b l i g e d t o pay 20 c e n t s f o r each head load o f wood. A f u r t h e r p rob lem r e s u l t s f r o m t h e r e s e t t l e m e n t e x e r c i s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e R u r a l Development Areas (RDA) programme. Because homesteads a r e b e i n g s h i f t e d , f a m i l i e s may f i n d themselves removed f r o m t h e i r w a t t l e s tands . Hence t h e y may be f o r c e d i n t o

- 63 -

F I G U R E 2 . 1 --p

ECOLOGICAL REGIONS

T I M B E R

Commercial p lantat ion

e i t h e r w a l k i n g a l o n g way t o draw on t h e i r own s tands o r f i n d i n g a n o t h e r s o u r c e . There i s c e r t a i n l y a need t o e s t a b l i s h w o o d l o t s nea r t o t h e r e s e t t l e m e n t areas i n o r d e r t o overcome t h i s prob lem.

A l r e a d y t h e r e i s a n o t i c e a b l e f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e i n c e r t a i n p a r t s o f t h e h i g h v e l d . Some h o ~ e s t e a d s o n l y use sma l l t w i g s because t h e y do n o t have access t o l a r g e r l o g s . Peop le may be asked a p r i c e o f 4 enialangeni f o r a p i c k u p t r u c k f u l o f wood. An ~ n f o r m a l s u r v e y conduc ted on b e h a l f o f t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e a t t h e l j r ~ i t e d N a t i o n s Worren and Development P r o j e c t a t P iggs Peak, r e v e a l e d t h a t women m i g h t spend between two hou rs and h a l f a day c o l l e c t i n g f i r e w o o d . I f o n l y one p e r s o n p e r homestead i s d o i n g t h i s , t h e n t h i s wou! d have t o t a k e p1 ace t w i c e p e r week. W i t h c h i l d r e n i n c r e a s i n g l y b e i n g a t s c h o o l , more and more o f t h e domes t i c l abour t a s k s devo l ve t o women a1 one.

The g e n e r a l p o i n t i s perhaps b e s t h i g h l i g h t e d i f we focus on t h e i n d i v i d u a l . One woman, J a n e t Masaku, e x p l a i n e d t h a t she made a week l y j o u r n e y f r o m h e r home t o t h e t r a d i t i o n a l t i m b e r f o r e s t on t h e m o u n t a i n above t h e schoo l a t M s h i n g i s h i n g i n i . She wou-Id s e t o f f a t 9.00 &.m. and r e t u r n a b o u t 2.00 p.m. on a Sa tu rday . F r e q u e ~ ~ t l y a g roup o f women wen t t o c o l l e c t t h e wood t o g e t h e r . They t h e n used a span o f oxen t o b r i n g i t down t h e mounta in . Normal l y t h e women i n h e r a rea w o u l d go t w i c e a week, b u t because she worked as a community h e a l t h wo rke r , she c o u l d o n l y go up t h e moun ta in a t t h e weekend, and h e r c h i l d r e n c o u l d t h e n go up w i t h h e r t o h e l p w i t h t h e c o l l e c t i n g . One p rob lem she f i n d s i s t h a t more and more p e o p l e a r e now u s i n g t h e wood on t h e moun ta in - a f u n c t i o n o f t h e g r o w i n g s c a r c i t y .

The mos t s e r i o u s fue lwood s h o r t a g e , however, o c c u r s on t h e m i d d l e v e l d ( see F i g u r e 2 . 1 ) . As one e x p e r t f r o m t h e F o r e s t r y S e c t i o n , b o r n and b r o u g h t up i n t h i s a rea , r e c a l l e d , "There i s a c r i t i c a l s i t u a t i o n as f a r as f i r e w o o d i s concerned. Wheq I was a young boy t k i s a r e a was n o t as bad as i t i s now. I t was as good as t h e l o w v e l d i s p r e s e n t l y " .

The r e a l c r i s i s l i e s i n t h i s r e g i o n . Heavy d e f o r e s t a t i o n has o c c u r r e d t h i s c e n t u r y . P e o p l e ' s needs f o r f i r e w o o d , f e n c i n g , b u i l d i n g p o l e s and g r a z i n g have e x a c t e d a heavy t o l l . R e f o r e s t a t i o n and c o n s e r v a t i o n measures have been l a c k i n g . The p redominan t1 y p a s t o r a l a g r i c u l t u r e t r a d i t i o n a l l y r e q u i r e s e x t e n s i v e b u r n i n g t o produce f r e s h g r a s s and p l a c e s a heavy demand on wood t o b u i l d t h e c a t t l e k r a a l s . Because o f t h e e x i s t i n g wood sho r tage , more aqd more p e o p l e a r e b e i n g o b l i g e d t o spend t h e i r money on ba rbed w;re f o r f e n c i n g pu rposes . P r e v i o u s l y t h i s bias neve r bsed. Commercial f a r m e r s c o m p l a i n t h a t t h e wooden p o l e s t h e y i a y on t h e w i r e s u r r o u n d i n g t 5 e i r f a rms a r e b e i n g t a k e n f o r i u e l w o o d . Peop le a r e now even c ~ t t i n g down v e r y smal: t r e e s t h e n l e a v i n g them t o d r y , b e f o r e f i n a l l y t a k i n g them t c b u r n .

The s i ~ o r t a c e has reached such p r o p o r t i o n s t h a t more and more cow dung, d r i e d l e a v e s and o t h e r c r o p r e s i d d e s a r e b e i n g used as c o m b u s t i b l e ma te r - i a l . T h i s i nev ! tab: y d e t r a c t s f r o m t h e j r use as

a f e r t i l i s e r f o r a d i m i n i s h i n g l y p r o d u c t i v e s o i l . A pe rson t r a v e l l i n g t h r o u g h t h e m i d d l e v e l d o f Swaz i l and sees w i d e f l a t g r a s s y p1 a i ns w i t h l arge a reas compl e t e l y t r e e 1 e s s .

Mrs D h l a m i n i , who l i v e s i n a homestead s o u t h o f M a n z i n i , spends one f u l l day p e r week w a l k i n g t o a d i s t a n t h i l l t o c o l l e c t wood. She needs a l o t o f wood because she a l s o bakes cakes t o s e l l t o t h e l o c a l s c h o o l c h i l d r e n and army c o n t i n g e n t . Because o f t h e f ue lwood s h o r t a g e , she a l s o uses dung and any s t i c k s f o u n d when c u t t i n g t h e g r a s s f o r t h a t c h i n g . The fue lwood s h o r t a g e i s such t h a t she a l s o needs t o purchase wood a t 15 emalangen i p e r l o a d . P r i v a t e t e n u r e f a r m e r s w i t h wood1 o t s a r e f r e q u e n t 1 y approached by t h e l o c a l p e o p l e i n t h e a r e a f o r t h e pu rchase o f wood. The g r o w i n g c o m m e r c i a l i s a t i o n o f f u e l w o o d and a c o n t i n u a l l y r i s i n g p r i c e p r o v i d e t h e f i r m e s t ev idence o f a g r o w i n g s c a r c i t y .

I n g e n e r a l , o n l y i f t h e f a m i l y i n a p a r t i c u l a r homestead has a c h i l d who has r e c e i v e d e d u c a t i o n and has o b t a i n e d a s a l a r i e d j o b , wou ld i t o c c a s i o n a l l y purchase c o a l f o r use as a f u e l i n t h e don ies t ic househo ld . Work ing d a u g h t e r s who m i g h t o t h e r w i s e have qe lped i n t h e c o l l e c t i n g o f wood, now f u l f i l 1 t h e i r o b l i g a t i o n s by p u r c h a s i n g a p a r a f f i n s t o v e f o r t h e i r mo the rs . G e n e r a l l y , peop le i n t h e r u r a l a reas wou ld use t h e p a r a f f i n s t o v e t o make t h e m o r n i n g t e a . cue lwood i s used f o r t h e ma in e v e n i n g mea l .

A f ue lwood s h o r t a g e may have an e f f e c t on n u t r i t i o n . Beans, w h i c h a r e f u l l o f p r o t e i n , t a k e a l o n g t i m e t o cook. When f u e l i s s c a r c e l e s s n u t r i t i o u s meals may be p repa red , b a b i e s b o t t l e s may n o t be s t e r i l i s e d . There i s a f a r - r e a c h i n g s o c i a l i m p a c t i n o t h e r words, w i t h f u e l w o c d s c a r c i t y .

The l o w v e l d , b y compar ison, i s v e r y w e l l wooded i n gene ra l - perhaps 60 p e r c e n t o r more o f t h e l o w v e l d a r e a i n t o t a l . Most o f t h e t i m b e r i s a c a c i a t ho rnbush , hence i t i s r a t h e r d i f f i c u l t t o c o l l e c t . On t h e o t h e r hand, i t p r o v i d e s a good h e a t and i s l o n g - b u r n i n g , hence c o l l e c t i o n can be l e s s f r e q u e n t .

A p o t e n t i a l p rob lem may e x i s t i n t h e f u t u r e around t h e sugar e s t a t e s where mass i ve l a n d c l e a r a n c e has o c c u r r e d .

There were v e r y few p e o p l e l i v i n g on t h e l o w v e l d u n t i l t h e m i d d l e o f t h i s c e n t u r y when l a n d p r e s s u r e began t o push them t h e r e . The e r a d i c a t i o n o f m a l a r i a i n 1949 removed wha t had f o r m e r l y been a d i s i n c e n t i v e f o r s e t t l e m e n t . I n a d d i t i o n t h e l a r g e sugar e s t a t e s a c t as a f o c a l p o i n t f o r l a b o u r . W i t h i n c r e a s i n g p o p u l a t i o n p r e s s u r e i n t h e l o c o t e r m then , a s c a r c i t y may a r i s e i n c e r t a i n l o c a t i o n s b u t a t p r e s e n t t h e s i t u a t i o n i s geqe ra l l y s a t i s f a c t o r y .

Urban Domest ic Consumption.

Urban househo lds consume 2 . 9 p e r c e n t o f Swazi? a n d ' s x o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion . As tCle u rban d r i f t c o n t i n u e s , we e s t i m a t e t h a t b y t h e y e a r 2000 t h i s wil? have grown t o 5 p e r c e n t . Coal accoun ts f o r 42.8 p e r c e n t , e l e c t r i c i t y f o r 28.6 p e r c e n t and wood and ke rosene f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g 1 4 , 3 p e r c e n t each o f u rban

domes t i c e n e r g y consumpt ion. B o t t l e d gas accoun ts f o r o n l y a s m a l l p a r t . A c c e s s i b i l i t y t o more d i v e r s e f u e l s and a l a r g e r average cash income a r e t h e main reasons f o r t h e d i f f e r e n t ene rgy p r o f i l e s between t h e u rban and r u r a l a reas . A c c o r d i n g t o an ILO R e p o r t ( 1977 ) , t h e average income o f an u rban Swazi i s t e n t i m e s t h a t o f h i s l h e r c o u n t e r p a r t i n t h e SNL and f o u r t i m e s t h e income o f a pe rson l i v i n g on an i n d i v i d u a l t e n u r e f a rm.

A s m a l l f a m i l y u s i n g o n l y ke rosene f o r c o o k i n g and l i g h t i n g purposes w o u l d buy a 22 l i t r e c o n t a i n e r a t 8 .50 o r 9 emalangeni and t h i s m i g h t l a s t a month . The e x p e n d i t u r e may r e p r e s e n t up t o 15 o r 20 p e r c e n t o f a f a m i l y ' s m o n t h l y income, e s p e c i a l l y i f t h e head o f t h e househo ld i s f ema le . The o i l p r i c e has had a d i r e c t i m p a c t on t h e u rban f a m i l y ' s s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g t h e r e f o r e .

When f a m i l i e s make a c h o i c e a b o u t t h e domes t i c ene rgy f u e l t h e y w i l l use, p r i c e , t h e d e s i g n o f t h e i r accommodat ion b u t a l s o t h e s a f e t y and h e a l t h f a c t o r may a f f e c t t h e i r c h o i c e . Some p a r e n t s w i l l n o t use b o t t l e d gas because o f t h e danger i t m i g h t r e p r e s e n t t o c h i l d r e n l e f t a l o n e i n a room. O t h e r s sha re a r e 1 u c t a n c e t o use c o a l o r p a r a f f i n i n s i d e t h e house because o f t h e fumes w h i c h may p rovoke r e s p i r a t o r y c o m p l a i n t s . The p r e s s r e g u l a r l y c a r r i e s s t o r i e s abou t p e o p l e b e i n g b u r n t i n s i d e t h e i r homes and i t i s c l e a r t h a t w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g s t a t e o f much o f t h e hous ing , s a f e t y c o n d i t i o n s a r e n o t a lways i d e a l .

I t w i l l c e r t a i n l y be a l o n g t i m e b e f o r e a l l u rban i n h a b i t a n t s a r e p r o v i d e d w i t h e l e c t r i c i t y . The c o s t o f such an o p e r a t i o n w o u l d be v e r y h i g h and many o f t h e homes a r e n o t s u i t a b l e f o r e l e c t r i c i t y as t h e y l e t w a t e r i n and a r e temporary c o n s t r u c t i o n s . Some i d e a o f t h e expense i n v o l v e d may be ga ined i f we l o o k a t t h e summary o f e s t i m a t e d c o s t s o f s e r v i c e s f o r t h e p roposed new Ngwenya i n d u s t r i a l t o w n s h i p . The p r o v i s i o n o f w a t e r supp l y , sewerage, roads , s to rmwate r , r a i l and e l e c t r i c i t y s e r v i c e s w i l l c o s t 2 .5 m i l l i o n emalangen i , o f w h i c h e l e c t r i c i t y accoun ts f o r 46 .6 p e r c e n t o f t h i s t o t a l .

Most o f t h e e x i s t i n g company towns a r e p r e s e n t l y l i t b y e l e c t r i c i t y , w i t h t h e companies b u y i n g i n b u l k and r e s e l l i n g t o t h e i r employees a t a t a r i f f t h e same o r l e s s t h a n t h a t o f t h e SEB.

T r a n s p o r t .

The t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r accoun ted f o r 13 .8 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion i n 1980, b u t f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 60 p e r c e n t o f a l l p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i m p o r t e d i n t o t h e c o u n t r y . I t i s t o t h i s s e c t o r t h e r e f o r e t h a t one s h o u l d l o o k f o r s a v i n g s on f o r e i g n exchange f o r f u e l i m p o r t s . B e t t e r v e h i c l e main tenance, an improvement o f t h e f l e e t and t h e d i s s e m i n a t i o n o f ene rgy s a v i n g d r i v i n g p r a c t i c e s may a l l have a n o t i c e a b l e e f f e c t on f u e l economy i n s i d e t h e c o u n t r y .

Gasolene and d i e s e l accoun t f o r t h e b u l k o f ene rgy consumed i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , and w i l l c o n t i n u e t o do so ( see Tab le 0 -7 , L . / / .

Road t r a n s p o r t accoun ts f o r 79 p e r c e n t o f ene rgy consumed, r a i l f o r n e a r l y 1 8 p e r c e n t and a i r t r a n s p o r t f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 p e r c e n t . I t rema ins t o be seen whe the r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e n o r t h e r n r a i l l i n k w i l l s i g n i f i c a n t l y a f f e c t t h i s r a t i o b u t any d r a s t i c change i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n s w o u l d appear u n l i k e l y . T h i s l i n k i s l i k e l y t o be comp le ted by 1985.

G iven t h e h i g h p r o d u c t i o n o f sugar cane w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y , t h e o p t i o n e x i s t s o f p r o d u c t i n g e t h a n o l t o r e d u c e t h e f u e l i m p o r t b i l l .

A g r i c u l t u r e .

T h i s s e c t o r accoun ts f o r under 3 p e r c e n t o f ene rgy consumpt ion . E l e c t r i c i t y p r o v i d e s 57 p e r c e n t and d i e s e l 43 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l .

Most o f t h e s e e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s a r e consumed on t h e commerc ia l f a rms and p1 a n t a t i o n s . Farmers on t h e SNL g e n e r a l l y use v e r y l i t t l e b y way o f commercial e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s i n t h e i r a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k . On l y a sma l l p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e f u n d s a l l o c a t e d t o t h e pu rchase o f a g r i c u l t u r a l p l a n t i n t h e Ru ra l Development Areas Programme was a c t u a l l y d i s b u r s e d , w h i c h i n p a r t accoun ts f o r t h i s . The m o s t r e c e n t f i g u r e s were 1 .35 m i l l i o n o u t o f 4 .7 m i l l i o n emalangen i f o r 1979/80 and 1 .35 m i l l i o n o u t o f 3 .4 m i l l i o n emalangen i f o r 1980/81.

G e n e r a l l y t h e c o s t o f ene rgy i m p o r t s i n t h i s s e c t o r wou ld appear t o be w o r t h w h i l e g i v e n t h a t Swaz i l and i s a n e t f o o d e x p o r t e r , u n l i k e many o f t h e o t h e r c o u n t r i e s i n t h e r e g i o n .

Commercial / I n s t i t u t i o n a l .

T h i s s e c t o r a l s o accoun ts f o r 3 p e r c e n t o f ene rgy consumpt ion. E l e c t r i c i t y and c o a l each p r o v i d e 43 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l w i t h wood fue l and r e s i d u a l o i l mak ing up t h e r e m a i n i n g consumpt ion. Energy economy campaigns i n t h i s s e c t o r a r e p o s s i b l e here , w i t h e x t e n s i v e pub1 i c i t y campaigns. F o r i n s t a n c e , s t i c k e r s w i t h "Save It " w r i t t e n on them can be p u t n e x t t o e v e r y l i g h t s w i t c h - t h i s i s one v e r y easy measure t o t a k e .

ENERGY SUPPLY

Hav ing examined t h e e x i s t i n g demand f o r e n e r g y s e c t o r b y s e c t o r , we a r e now i n a p o s i t i o n t o summarize t h e p i c t u r e o f e x i s t i n g and f u t u r e demand. E s t i m a t e s o f t o t a l r e s o u r c e r e q u i rements t o t h e y e a r 2000 a r e p r o v i d e d i n Tab le 2 .9 . T a b l e 2 .8 p r o v i d e s a breakdown o f end-use f u e l consumpt ion o v e r t i m e . We w i l l now examine each o f t h e s u p p l y sou rces i n t u r n , b e g i n n i n g w i t h t h e most i m p o r t a n t - wood.

TABLE 2 .7

End-Use Fue l Requi rernents : Pe t ro leum P r o d u c t s irni l l i o n s o f Gi aa -Jou l es i

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Urban Hotisehol d 0.15 0.24 0 .32 0.41 0.49

Rura l Househo ld 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.15

A g r i c d l t u r f 0.33 0.39 0.45 0.53 0.61

Indus t r y 1.32 1 .50 1.63 1.82 1 .94

Comrner l lns t 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.16 0.19

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 2.72 3.20 3.67 4.32 4.97

TOTAL DEMAND 4.67 5.52 6.30 7.37 8.35

TABLE 2 . 8

End-Use Fue l Requ i rements : F u e l ~ o o d ( m i l l i o n s o f G i g a- J o u l e s )

Urban Hotisehol d 0.08 0.13 0.18 0.22 0.27

Rura l Hotisehoi d 4.00 4.40 4.80 5.49 6.16

A g r i c d l t u r e 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 . 0

I ndus t r y 4 .32 5 .18 6.04 7.29 8.54

Comrner/Inst 0.07 C . 10 0.14 0.17 0.21

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 0 . 0 0 .0 0 . 0 0 .0 0 .0

TOTAL DEMAND 8.47 9.81 11,16 13,17 15.18

TABLE 2.9

N e t Resource Requirements ( m i l l i o n s o f G iga- Jou les )

-ue i wood 8 .4

lood For Charcoal 0 .0

lood For I n d u s t r y 0 . 3

iiomass 8.5

i e f i n e d O i l 0 .0

lomes t i c Coal 5.2

l a t u r a l Gas 0 . 0

y d r o 2 . 0

e f i ned I m p o r t 5 .0

e f i n e d Expor t s 0 .0

rude I m p o r t / E x p o r t s 0.0

omes t i c Crude 0 . 0

l e c t r i c Expor t s 0 . 0

l e c t r i c Impor ts 0 . 8

oa l Impor ts 2 .4

OTAL SOURCES 32.6 40 -9 48.7 58.1 67.7

Wood Sunol v .

i&Jood accoun ts f o r o v e r a t h i r d o f t h e ene rgy s u p p l y t o t h e c o t ~ n t r y . T a b l e 2 .13 shows how t h e s u p p l y o f f ue lwood w i l l have t o i n c r e a s e %c n e e 1 t h e r i s i n g demand, b y s e c t o r , t o t h e y e a r 2000. F i g u r e i s h m s t h e e x t e n t o f commerc ia l f o r e s t s , and these a r e amongst t h e l a r g e s t p l a n t a t i o n s i n t h e w o r l d - t o t a l l i n g 101,000 h e c t a r e s . Around 72 p e r c e n t i s p i n e and 24 p e r c e n t i s gum !main; y e u c a l y p t u s ) . T a b l e 2 . 1 1 g i v e s a d e t a i l e d breakdown. The ma4n industries a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p l a n t a t i o n s a r e a p u l p m i l l , two I arge and s e v e r a l smal l e r sawmi l l S , t ~ o p o l e - t r e a t i ng cor lcerns and a m i l l f o r t h e m a n u f a c t u r e o f e u c a l y p t u s o i l . Other smal l e r e n t e r p r i s e s a1 so e x i s t .

Large s c a l e a f f o r e s t a t i o n o n l y began i n t h e 1940s and o v e r t h e p a s t f i f t e e n t o t w e n t y y e a r s t h e t o t a l f o r e s t s t o c k has n o t grown t remendous l y ( i t was 90,000 h e c t a r e s i n 1 9 6 5 ) . Wood as a commerc ia l ene rgy sou rce i s o n l y o f m i n o r i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e p1 a n t a t i o n s .

Employees a t t h e t i m b e r f a c t o r i e s a r e p a r t l y s u p p l i e d w i t h was te wood a t a s u b s i d i s e d r a t e .

I n t h e case o f t h e l a r g e s t o f t h e f i r m s , Usu tu Pulp, t h e ? r i c e i s 8 emal angen i p e r t o n , b u t Peak T imbers s u p p l i e s i t f r e e . 3 i r e c t consumpt ion on t h e fo rmer huge e s t a t e by employees, i s e s t i m a t e d t o be 10,000 t o n s p e r y e a r . P a r t o f t h i s wou ld p r o b a b l y be r e s o l d b y t h e w o r k e r s t o t h e l o c a l p e o p l e .

Usu tu a l s o i s s u e f i r e w o o d p e r m i t s f u r p e o p l e t o go and c o l l e c t wood i n t h e f o r e s t s . Approx imate1 y n i n e t y - f o u r were ~ s s u e d between May 1980 and A p r i l 1981 - hence t h e demand f o r t h e s e l o c a l l y does n o t appear g r e a t . The p e r m i t s a r e i s s u e d f r e e because t h i s i s seen as a s a f e t y d e v i c e t o c o n t r o l t r e s p a s s i n t h e f o r e s t . There a r e t h i r t y - t w o f o r e s t guards c o n s t a n t 1 y p a t r o l 1 i n g and t h e f e a r i s t h a t f o r e s t f i r e s may be s t a r t e d i f u n c o n t r o l l e d e f i t r y i s a1 l owed. Undoubted1 y , however, t h e r e mus t be a c e r t a i n anoun t o f u n a u t h o r i s e d f u e l w o o d g a t h e r i n g .

Peak T imbers l e a v e a b o u t 30 p e r c e n t o f t h e wood i n t h e F o r e s t and ~ e o p l e c o l l e c t some o f t h i s . O v e r a l l , however, as we saw i? t h e ? r e v t o u s s e c t i o n , huge amounts o f wood a r e wasted. !.[ere i s aq eqormous p o t e n t i a l sou rce o f ene rgy c u r r e n t l y b e i n g l o s t .

The wood i n d u s t r y does use t i m b e r was te t o d r i v e i t s own p1 a n t . Hence t h e Usu tu m i l l g e n e r a t e s n e a r l y t w o - t h i r d s o f i t s own e l e c t r i c i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s and i s t h e l a r g e s t s e l f - p r o d ~ c e r o f e l e c t r i c i t y i n t h e secondary s e c t o r . Waste wood, lack l i q u o r s o l i d s and heavy f u e l o i l a r e f i r e d i n steam g e n e r a t o r s . Peak T imbers has s i x was te wood b o i l e r s w i t h two o f t h e s e s u p p l y i n g t h e power p1 a n t t u r b i n e g e n e r a t o r s .

T a b l e 2 .12 p r o v i d e s t h e t o t a l f i g u r e s on i n d u s t r i a l ~ o o d h a r v e s t i n g and m i l l i n g and T a b l e 2 . 1 3 t h e p r o j e c t i o n o f i n d b s t r i a l wood consumpt ion t o t h e y e a r 2000.

PABLE 2.10

National Summary Of End-Use Fuel Consumption (mi l l ions o f Giga- Joules)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

L SECTORS F U E L

Woodf uel 8 . 5 9 .8 11.2 13 .2 15.2

Charcoal 0 .0 0 .0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 .0

Dung/Resi due 5 . 7 6 . 9 8 .2 9 .9 1 1 . 7

Wood I n d u s t r i a1 0.2 0.2 0 .2 0 . 3 0 . 3

Gasol i ne 1 . 4 1 . 7 1 . 9 2 . 3 2 . 6

Kerosene 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 .4 0.5 0.5

Diesel 1.5 1 . 8 2 . 1 2.4 2.3

Aviation Fuel 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0.2 0.2

Residual Oil 1 . 4 1 .6 1 . 7 2.0 2 . 1

E l e c t r i c i t y 1 .6 2 . 1 2 . 6 3 .2 3 . 3

Coal 3.3 4 .3 5 . 4 6 . 8 8 . 2

Natural Gas 0 .0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0

LPG 0 . 0 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1 0 . 1

AND TOTAL 23 .9 28.9 33.9 40.9 47,s

TABLE 2.11

P l a n t a t i o n F o r e s t Area Bv Soec ies

p e c i e s

% o f T o t a l % o f T o t a l Man-Made Area o f

Area H e c t a r e s F o r e s t Area Swazi l and

o n i f e r o u s Spec ies 71,949 72,816 72.3 72.4 4.14 4.19

a1 i g n a g r a n d i s 21,839 22,173 21.9 22.0 1.26 1.28

t h e r Gums 2,212 2,365 2.2 2.4 0.13 0 .14

t h e r N o n- c o n i f e r o u s s p e c i e s 243 249 0.2 0.2 0.01 0.01

STAL 99,573 100,618 100.0 100.0 5.73 5.79

I u r c e : T imber S t a t i s t i c s f o r 1980, C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e , Swaz i l and.

TABLE 2.12

I n d u s t r i a l Wood-Harvesting And M i l l i n g Repor t ( m i l l i o n s o f Giga- Joules)

ILLING M i l l 1

M i l l e d Product

Fuel wood Supply

Loss

To ta l I n p u t

4RVESTING Round Wood

Fuel wood Supply

Loss

To ta l I n p u t

TABLE 2.13

End-Use Fuel Requirements: I n d u s t r i a l Wood ( m i l l i o n s o f Giga- Joules)

ITAL DEMAND 0.17 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.31

The v i t a l i t y o f t h e commercial wood s e c t o r s tands i n marked c o n t r a s t t o t h e r a p r d d i sappea rance o f t h e n a t u r a l f o r e s t s i n Sbv2zil and. As F i g u r e 1 shows, t h e r e a r e l a r g e a reas o f t h e c o u n t r y where t h e s u p p l y o f fue lwood i s s c a r c e . The F o r e s t r y s e c t i o q i n t h e M i n i s t r y o f A g r i c u l t u r e and C o- o p e r a t i v e s have es t 'ma ted t h a t a b o u t 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n have t o 3se o t h e r f u e l s f o r c o o k i n g because o f t h e l a c k o f wood. Dung, c r o p r e s i d u e s , p i n e cones and t h e t a l ; g r a s s f o u n d nea r r i v e r s a r e a l l used as f u e l . Peop le use a l l t h e n a t u r a l t i m b e r s f o r f u e l and c o n s t r u c t i o n purposes and Tab le 2 .14 l i s t s t h e ma in ones.

The demand f o r p o l e s f o r house and kraa; c o n s t r u c t i o n has i n c r e a s e d t h e demand on e x i s t i n g t i m b e r supp?y . The demand f o g t h i s has been e s t i m a t e d by t h e F o r e s t r y s e c t i o n t o be 50,COO m p e r y e a r , o r , p u t a n o t h e r way, 4,803 h e c t a r e s o f wood land i s r e q u i r e d . An a d d i t i o n a l c o m p l i c a t i o n i s t h a t i n t h e p a s t , when b e e q i v e h u t s were i n common use, p o l e s d i d n o t have t o be c o m p l e t e l y s t r a i g h t . Now t h e r e i s a h i g h demand f o r s t r a i g h t po:es whicQ t h e s u p p l y f i n d s h a r d t o meet i n many a r e a s .

The d i m i n i s h i n g o f n a t u r a l f o r e s t r e s o u r c e s has a number o f causes. One o f t h e s e i s t h e l a r g e - s c a l e c l e a r i n g o f l a n d f o r

a n t a t i o n a q r i c ~ l t u r e . The sugar e s t a t e s have had an i m p o r t a n t i m p a c t he re . When t h e S iqunye suga r e s t a t e was b e i n g prepared, 10,000 h e c t a r e s o f n a t u r a l wood were c l e a r e d and b u r n t . A t European m a r k e t p r i c e s t h e wood was w o r t h an e s t l m a t e d 20 m i l l i o n ema langen i . I t m i g h t have been p o s s i b l e t o make use o f t h i s wood r a t h e r t h a n was te i t c o m p l e t e l y .

The p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e o f peopye and t h e i r c a t t l e have a1 so had a r o l e t o p l a y . W i t h a g r e a t e r demand t h a v s u p p l y a v a i l a b l e s t o c k s mus t i n e v i t a b l y decrease. Some o f t h e more v a ? u a b l e t i m b e r s p e c i e s have a1 so f a 1 l e n v i c t i m t o t h e g r o w i r g c r a f t i n $ u s t r y and t h e l a c k o f r e a f f o r e s t a t i o n and c o n s e r v a t i o n measures. As e v i d e r c e o f t h e l a t t e r we r e a d unde r C lause 4, P a r t 2, o f t h e F!07a P r o t e c t i o n A c t o f 3 1 s t October 1952:

"Tke owner o r o c c u p i e r o f l a n d , o r any pe rson a u t h o r i s e d b y such ownei- n a y p l u c k , c u t o r u p r o o t :

( a ) p r c t e c t e d f l o r a w h i c h have been c u l t i v a t e d b y such owner o r o c c u p i e r on h i s s p e c i f i c i n s t r u c t i o n s , on l a n d s p e c i a l l y s e t a p a r t f o r such c u l t ' v a t ~ o n ;

( b ) o r g a l h e r , i n j u r e , b reak o r d e s t r o y p r o t e c t e d f ? o r ? on l a n d w h i c h i s bona f i d e r e q u i r e d f o r p l l rpqses o f f a r r v i cg o r t,he e r e c t i o n o f a b u i l d i n g t h e r e o n . "

T h i s makes c o r ~ s e r v a t i o n e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u ? t . Enforcement i s anyway d i f f i c u l t g i v e n t h a t t h e cr : : intry on;y kas cne c o n s e r v a t i o n : ? f F l c e r .

A ! t k o u ~ h t h e F o r e s t r y s e c t i o n has f i v e n u r s e r i e s , none i s ::uihren~-'y - , p?*oi!~;s i r g more t l iar i 30,000 seed1 i n g s p e r y e a r . The

TABLE 2 . 1 4

Tree Spec ies Used By The Rura l Population F o r Fuelwood And Po les

S c i e n t ' f i c Name Common Name

Breonad ia m icvocepha l a

Acac ia m e a r n s i i

P t e r o c a r p u s a n g o l e u n s i s

Acac ia n i g r e s c e n s

T e r r n i n a l i a s e r i c a

Syzygium co rda tum

B r a c h y l aena d i s c o l o

Rapanea we1 anoph l oes

ivlautuni

B l a c k M a t t l u *

K i a a t

Ynob Thorr,

S i l v e r Termi r a l i a

Water B e r r y

W i l d S i l v e r Oak

Cape Beech

Combreturn imberbe Lead- Wood

S p i r o s t a c h y s a f r i c 2 r : a -p-

Tambot i

T r i c h i l i a eye t i c : N a t a l Mahogany

Source: Work ing Paper f o r t h e Seventh R e g ! ~ l a r M e e i i n g o f SA9CCUS S t a n d i n g Commit tee f o r F o r e s t r y , F o r e s t r y S e c t ! ~ ? , p--

M i i r i s t r y o f A g r ~ c u l t u r e and Co- ope ra t i ves , 1-979.

* t h e o n l y e x o t i c specie;.

s e c t i o n has o n l y 13 p e o p l e w i t h f o r e s t r y t r a i n i n g s u p p o r t e d b y 4 f o r e s t a s s i s t a n t s and 46 l a b o u r e r s . E x t e n s i o n a c t i v i t i e s a r e e x t r e m e l y l i m i t e d . G e n e r a l l y , w i t h t h e p r e s e n t l o w l e v e l o f r e s o u r c e s , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o overcome t h e a n t i p a t h y o f a p a s t o r a l p e o p l e t o g r o w i n g t r e e s , and as i t i s t h e women who c a r r y t h e bu rden o f h a v i n g t o w a l k i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e s t o c o l l e c t t h e wood, t h e i r v o i c e i s l i t t l e heard .

Coal

C u r r e n t e s t i m a t e s o f c o a l r e s e r v e s i n Swaz i l and a r e 200 m i l l i o n t o n s . A l o w e r c o a l zone has modera te t o good q u a l i t y l o w - v o l a t i l e t o a n t h r a c i t e c o a l s , w h i l s t t h e upper zone has i n f e r i o r a n t h r a c i t e . Coal i s e x p o r t e d t o Kenya, Mozambique, Western Europe and t h e F a r Eas t t h r o u g h t h e ha rbou r a t Maputo. Between 20 and 40 p e r c e n t i s consumed i n t e r n a l l y .

A t p r e s e n t t h e c o u n t r y ' s c o a l r e s o u r c e s a r e l i t t l e e x p l o i t e d , w i t h o n l y one p r o d u c i n g m ine a t Mpaka. P r o d u c t i o n i n r e c e n t y e a r s was a round 170,000 t o n s . O the r m i n i n g concess ions have been g r a n t e d , b u t t h e r e a r e no s i g n s as y e t t h a t f u r t h e r p r o d u c t i o n w i l l b e g i n . I t i s hoped t h a t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e n o r t h e r n r a i l l i n k w i l l a c t as an i n c e n t i v e t o t h e companies concerned. The c o a l be1 t s t r e t c h e s n o r t h / s o u t h , and i s s i t u a t e d i n t h e e a s t e r n r e g i o n .

A1 though S w a z i l a n d i s a c o a l p r o d u c e r i t a l s o i m p o r t s c o a l f r o m South A f r i c a . T h i s rema ins an a rea o f ene rgy dependence t h e r e f o r e .

E l e c t r i c i t y .

Swaz i l and has been p u r s u i n g a p01 i c y o f d e v e l o p i n g i t s h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p o t e n t i a l . Two schemes a r e c u r r e n t 1 y w o r k i n g a t Edwalen i and Magunduze and a t h i r d p r o j e c t , L u p o h l o - E z u l w i n i , s h o u l d come on s t r e a m a t t h e end o f 1983. A l l t h r e e hydropower p r o j e c t s a r e based on t h e L i t t l e Lusu to R i v e r w h i c h has a 90 p e r c e n t ca t chmen t a r e a w i t h i n Swaz i l and . I n t h e f u t u r e , 8 MW and 15 MW schemes may be p o s s i b l e a t s i t e s f u r t h e r down t h e r i v e r . C l e a r l y t h e r e a r e dangers i n b u i l d i n g g e n e r a t o r s on r i v e r s s t a r t i n g i n South A f r i c a , w h i c h has a known w a t e r s h o r t a g e and whose p roposed new e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n p l a n t s w i l l need huge q u a n t i t i e s o f w a t e r themsel ves, f o r c o o l i ng purposes.

An i m a g i n a t i v e use has t h u s f a r been made o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s hydropower p o t e n t i a l . I n 1980 i t accoun ted f o r 23 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y consumpt ion ( see Tab1 e 2.15 f o r t h e comple te breakdown and f u t u r e p r o j e c t i o n ) . T h i s marks an i m p o r t a n t s t e p f o r w a r d s i n s e l f - r e 1 i ance.

However, h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y schemes i n t e r n a l l y c a n n o t meet t h e g r o w i n g e l e c t r i c i t y demand, and power i m p o r t s f r o m South A f r i c a have grown f r o m z e r o i n 1973 t o a round a h a l f o f t o t a l consumpt ion . The cheapness o f ESCOM i m p o r t e d e l e c t r i c i t y i s a p o w e r f u l d i s i n c e n t i v e t o deve lop g r e a t e r s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y .

TABLE 2.15

E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n (MW C a p a c i t y and GWH G e n e r a t i o n )

IORTS C a p a c i t y (MW) G e n e r a t i o n (GWH)

)R0 C a p a c i t y (MW) G e n e r a t i o n (GWH)

:SEL C a p a c i t y (MW) G e n e r a t i o n (GWH)

-F-GEN C a p a c i t y (MW) G e n e r a t i o n (GWH)

-AL ELECTRIC C a p a c i t y (MW) G e n e r a t i o n (GWH)

i MARGIN (MW)

i K DEMAND (MW)

RGY DEMAND (GWH) Domest ic T & D Losses

E l e c t r i c a l Consumption.

The c o u n t r y 1 8 f o r t u n a t e i q t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h p r i v a t e compan i e s g e n e r a t e t h e i r own e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m was te p r o d u c t s i n t h e i r p r o d u c t i o v p r o c e s s . C u r r e n t l y t h e SEB i s w o r k i n g on a scheme t o t i e i n w i t h t h e Mhlume suga r m i l l ' s bagasse p r o d u c t i o n .

The SEE has approached a l l i t s consumers w i t h a v i ew t o r e d u c i ~ g i t s peak l o a d r e 1 i a n c e on ESCOM. I t has expe r imen ted a t Mhlume u s i n g r e v e r s i n g me te rs , g e t t i n g t o know how t h i s process m i g h t wo rk .

A l t h o u g h t h e c o u n t r y has abucdan t c o a l r e s o u r c e s , t h e dominan t t h i n k i n g i s t h z t b u i l d i n g a t he rma l c o a i s t a t i o n wou ld be uneconomic i n t h e m.!ddle t o l o n g t e r m .

T a b i e 2.16 shows how demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y by s e c t o r i s l i k e l y t o grow t o t h e y e a r 2000.

O i l . --

Because S w a z i l a n d does n o t possess i t s own o i l o r n a t u r a l gas r e s o u r c e s , a l l p e t r c l e u - n p r o d u c t s a r e i m p o r t e d . They come f r o m South A f r r c a n r e f i n e r i e s and a r e sh ipped t h r o u g h Maputo. O i l p r o d u c t s a c c o u n t f o r 19 .2 pe r c e n t o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion.

A breakdown of t he o i l c o n s u m p t ~ o n f i g u r e s shows t h a t gaso lene accoun ts f o r 30 .4 p e r c e n t , ke rosene f o r 4 . 3 p e r c e n t : d i e s e l f o r 32 .6 p e r c e n t , a v r a t i o n f u e l f o r 2 . 2 p e r c e n t and r e s i d u a l o i l f o r 30 .4 p e r c e n t o f t g t a : p e t r o l e u m consumpt ion. On no l o n g t e r m p r o j e c t i o n wou ld i t make economic sense f o r a c o u n t r y as smal l as t h i s t o have i t s own r e f i n e r y , t h e domes t i c m a r k e t does n o t w a r r a r t i t .

The d s u t u F u l p Compary i s t h e p r i n c i p a l u s e r o f r e s i d u a l o i l and, as we have see r p r e v i o u s l y , t e c h n o l o g i c a l changes i n t h e p l a n t w i l l soon r e d u c e d r a s t i c a l l y t h i s ccvponen t o f t h e i m p o r t b i l l .

A v a i l a b l e s t o r a g e c a p a c i t y o f p e t r o l e m p r o d u c t s i s a t p r e s e n t l e s s t h a n t h r e e weeks s u p p l y , and t h i s needs t o be i n c r e a s e d .

C e r t a i n meascres have a l r e a d y been sugges ted f o r how o i l economies can be made i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r . E thano l p r o d u c t i o n i s a f ~ r t k e r measure. A t p r e s e ~ t c o n v e n t i o n a l eng ines can o p e r a t e w i t h an e t h a n n i t o g a s u l l n e m i x o f 1. t o 4 and a round 7 pe r c e n t e t h a n o l t o 93 p e r c e n t d i e s e l . I t c o ~ l d a1 so s ~ b s 5.1 L u t e f o r ke rosene used f o r l i g h t i n g and c o o k ~ n g . Sugar cane i s t h e main r e s o u r c e w i t h i n S w a s i l a n d w ! i i cb c o ~ i ! d be used f o r e tbano? p r o : l ~ c - t i on.

! g e t h a n c l ~ ~ ' o d u c t i o n p r o j e c t was mooted and a background s t u d y p r e p a r e d a t t h e b e h e s t o f T i b i y o and Lonrho. The es t ima ted cos -t o f t h e ? l 2 n t l ~ a s one m i l l i o n emal angen i , and i t was t o be s i t u a t e d a t B i g Bend. However, Ln 3sne 1982, T'b.:yo ~ l ~ o u n c e d t h a t t h e p r o j e c t was u n l i k e l y t o ~ r s c e e d as i t hzd n o t r e c e i v e d " a g reen l i g h t " (The --------S--- T;mes o f Swaz!:and9 1 s t Jufie 1.982).

T A B L E 2.16

End-Use Fuel Requirements: E l e c t r i c i t y (mil l ions of Giga- Joules)

)an Household

-a1 Household

- icu l t u r e

jus t r y

nmer/Inst

i n s p o r t a t i on

TAL DEMAND

Othe r Enerav Sources.

Bagasse and b l a c k l i q u o r a r e t h e two r e m a i n i n g s i g n i f i c a n t sou rces o f e n e r g y used i n Swaz i l and . The f o r m e r i s a r e s i d u e f r o m t h e p r o c e s s i n g o f suga r cane and meets t h e b u l k o f t h e sugar i n d u s t r i e s needs f o r steam and e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n . B1 ack l i q u o r i s a n o t h e r was te p r o d u c t , t h i s t i m e o f p u l p p r o d u c t i o n . I n i t s s o l i d f o r m i t i s used i n t h e chemica l r e c o v e r y u n i t o f t h e p u l p i n d u s t r y .

There i s c l e a r l y enormous p o t e n t i a l f o r u t i l i s i n g s o l a r ene rgy i n t h e f u t u r e . S o l a r p a n e l s have been i n s t a l l e d i n a few p l a c e s . The mos t i m p o r t a n t s i t e i s a t Tambankulu E s t a t e s where i t i s used t o p roduce h o t w a t e r f o r t h e showers. L i t t l e seasonal v a r i a t i o n i s e x p e r i e n c e d i n te rms o f sunsh ine p e r day. M o n t h l y averages v a r y b y no more t h a n 13 p e r c e n t f r o m t h e y e a r l y average. The e x i s t i n g UNDP Women and Development P r o j e c t a t P iggs Peak has a l r e a d y encouraged r u r a l commun i t i es t o a d o p t near1 y 30 f r e e - s t a n d i n g s o l a r d r i e r s , and two s o l a r h e a t e r s .

B iogas p r o d u c t i o n has been t r i e d e x p e r i m e n t a l l y and on a v e r y s m a l l s c a l e . Aga in , t h e Women and Development P r o j e c t has b u i l t two b i o g a s d i g e s t e r s i n v i l l a g e s . These have n o t been t o t a l l y s u c c e s s f u l y e t because t h e i n i t i a l s i z e was t o o sma l l . A f u r t h e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s t h a t t h e e x t e n s i v e use o f c a t t l e dung w i l l d i m i n i s h t h e f e r t i l i t y o f t h e l a n d . However, w i t h a predominant1 y p a s t o r a l s o c i e t y l i ke Swaz i l and, scope c l e a r 1 y e x i s t s t o r e l i e v e some o f t h e immed ia te p r e s s u r e on sca rce f u e l w o o d r e s o u r c e s w i t h b i o g a s p r o d u c e r s .

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

T h i s r e p o r t has i d e n t i f i e d a h i t h e r t o h idden d imens ion o f t h e e n e r g y c r i s i s , t h a t o f f ue lwood s c a r c i t y . We have a rgued t h a t b y a d d r e s s i n g t h i s prob lem, t h e d a y - t o - d a y needs o f t h e peop le may be b e t t e r me t and t h a t t h i s w i l l a l s o b e n e f i t t h e modern s e c t o r b y g u a r a n t e e i n g t h e r u r a l base f o r t h e i r w o r k f o r c e w h i c h a l l o w s wage c o s t s t o c o n t i n u e b e i n g l o w e r t h a n t h e y m i g h t o t h e r w i s e be.

I f t h i s i s t h e p r i n c i p a l f i n d i n g o f t h e s tudy , i t i s n o t t h e o n l y one, and we w i l l address each o f t h e ene rgy sources o f s u p p l y i n t u r n , s t a r t i n g w i t h t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t - wood.

Wood.

Some o f t h e l a r g e s t t i m b e r p l a n t a t i o n s i n t h e w o r l d s t a n d a l o n g s i d e o f a reas o f f ue lwood s h o r t a g e . Thought c o u l d be g i v e n t o how t h e enormous q u a n t i t i e s o f was te wood p roduced by t h e fo rmer m i g h t be used e i t h e r i n t h e i r own p r o d u c t i o n p rocess o r f o r r e l i e v i n g t h e fue lwood s h o r t a g e o f a d j a c e n t a reas .

The Women and Development P r o j e c t , f o r example, has deve loped a v e r y e f f i c i e n t sawdust s t o v e , and t h e Peak Timber Company i n t h e h i g h v e l d has a r u r a l e n e r g y d e f i c i t a r e a a l o n g s i d e o f i t . Perhaps t h e p rob lem s h o u l d be s t u d i e d and t h e sawdust and was te wood l o c a l l y p roduced c o u l d be u s e f u l l y employed. I t i s c e r t a i n l y n o t w o r t h spend ing l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f i m p o r t e d o i l mov ing t h e wood l o n g d i s t a n c e s , b u t c e r t a i n l y b e t t e r use c o u l d be made o f t h i s e n e r g y r e s o u r c e . A s e r i o u s d i f f i c u l t y l i e s i n t h e i n s u f f i c i e n t d a t a base f o r S w a z i l a n d ' s wood r e s o u r c e s o u t s i d e o f t h e p1 a n t a t i o n a reas . The C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e r e a d i l y a d m i t s t h a t " t i m b e r on Swazi N a t i o n a l Land has neve r been a c c u r a t e l y measured" ( see Timber S t a t i s t i c s f o r 1980, p . 1 ) ; however i t c o n t i n u e s b y s a y i n g t h a t " i t i s b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e r e a r e a b o u t 5,000 h e c t a r e s o f man-made f o r e s t s " . T h i s s t a t i s t i c was i n h e r i t e d f r o m t h e m i s t s o f t i m e , and p e o p l e i n t h e F o r e s t r y s e c t i o n and i n t h e CS0 say o p e n l y t h a t i t i s a mean ing less f i g u r e .

A s t u d y i s u r g e n t l y r e q u i r e d , t h e r e f o r e , t o assess t h i s i m p o r t a n t domes t i c r e s o u r c e o f Swaz i land, r e l a t i n g i t t o an i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e r u r a l ene rgy s i t u a t i o n i n g e n e r a l .

A f u r t h e r s u g g e s t i o n i s d e v e l o p i n g t h e e x i s t i n g e x p e r i m e n t a l c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n . Up t o t h e p r e s e n t , c h a r c o a l has n o t been used t o any s i g n i f i c a n t degree w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y . A t p r e s e n t t h e c h a r c o a l p r o j e c t b e i n g r u n by t h e f o r e s t r y s e c t o r s e l l s c h a r c o a l a t 12 c e n t s p e r kg . B u t i t was o n l y s e l l i n g 10-15 k g p e r week i n 1981 and a b o u t 50 k g p e r week i n 1982. I t may be p o s s i b l e w i t h a d d i t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s t o expand t h e p r o j e c t and t h i s may have a f u t u r e i m p a c t on u rban domes t i c ene rgy consumpt ion. The p r o j e c t has a l r e a d y p roduced a t r a n s p o r t a b l e c h a r c o a l k i l n .

A more o b v i o u s and i m p o r t a n t measure i s e n c o u r a g i n g communal w o o d l o t s and m i x e d a g r o - f o r e s t r y p r o d u c t i o n i n t h e r u r a l a reas . G r e a t e r r e s o u r c e s w o u l d have t o be a l l o c a t e d t o t h e F o r e s t r y s e c t i o n i f t h e r e q u i r e d i m p a c t were t o be made.

P r o d u c i n g more e f f i c i e n t s t o v e s i s a n o t h e r i m p o r t a n t a r e a t o be e x p l o r e d .

Coa l .

G i ven t h e huge q u a n t i t i e s o f c o a l possessed b y t h e c o u n t r y , g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n c o u l d be p a i d t o how t h i s m i g h t s u b s t i t u t e e x i s t i n g c o a l i m p o r t s . Perhaps s t a t e l o a n s o r s u b s i d i e s m i g h t encourage t h e necessa ry m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e e x i s t i n g p1 an t , e n a b l i n g S w a z i l a n d c o a l t o be b u r n t r a t h e r t han t h e i m p o r t e d v a r i e t y . These c o a l r e s e r v e s c e r t a i n 1 y p r o v i d e a m a j o r i n d i g e n o u s and r e l a t i v e l y un tapped ene rgy r e s o u r c e t o be harnessed t o t h e c o u n t r y ' S deve lopment e f f o r t .

A t t r a c t i n g p o t e n t i a l c o a l - m i n i n g i n d u s t r i e s i s a n o t h e r p o s s i b l e c o n s i d e r a t i o n .

E l e c t r i c i t y .

The e x i s t i n g hydropower p r o j e c t s have t h u s f a r been a success. C o n t i n u e d expans ion f u r t h e r down t h e r i v e r may produce some p rob lems i n te rms o f l o w e r i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v e p o t e n t i a l o f t h e s u r r o u n d i n g l a n d . There i s a1 so a c l e a r l i m i t t o t h e hydropower p o t e n t i a1 w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y .

E x i s t i n g heavy i m p o r t s o f e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m South A f r i c a c o u l d be complemented i n t h e f u t u r e b y cheap e l e c t r i c i t y i m p o r t s f r o m t h e n e i g h b o u r i n g SADCC s t a t e . The huge and cheap power o f t h e Cahora Bassa dam i n Mozambique p r o v i d e s an i n t e r e s t ~ n g l o n g - t e r m p r o s p e c t f o r t h e c o u n t r y t o c o n s i d e r .

O i l .

E thano l p r o d u c t i o n , as men t i oned i n an e a r l i e r s e c t i o n , c o u l d s ~ g n i f i c a n t l y reduce t h e o i l i m p o r t b i l l . Othe r r e d u c t ~ o n s c o u l d o c c u r w i t h w i d e r c o n s e r v a t i o n campaigns and s u b s t i t u t i n g , where f e a s i b l e , as i n t h e base o f t h e Usuto P u l p Company, o t h e r e n e r g y us1 ng t e c h n o l o g i e s .

O the r Energy Sources.

Expe r imen ts a t t h e UNDF Women and Development P r o j e c t a t P iggs Peak appear v e r y e n c o u r a g i n g and more r e s o u r c e s c o u l d u s e f u l l y be p l a c e d i n t h i s and s i m i l a r p r o j e c t s .

Some o f t h e t e c h n o l o g y c l e a r l y has l i m i t a t i o n s , as .is t h e case w i t h t h e c h a r c o a l r e f r i g e r a t o r w h i c h needs s u b s t a n t i a l amounts o f w a t e r t o keep i t w o r k i n g . When t h i s has t o be c a r r i e d l o n g d i s t a n c e s on t h e heads o f women t h e n w a t e r i s u n l i k e l y t o be a l l o c a z e d t o t h i s as a p r i o r i t y . O t h e r s have been f a r more s u c c e s s f u l . S o l a r power, b i o g a s and o t h e r renewab le energy r e s o u r c e s may p l a y an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n s ~ p p l y i n g t h e f d t u r e e n e r g y needs o f t h e c o u n t r y . The l i m i t e d s h o r t - t e r m i m p a c t t h e y m i g h t have s h o u l d n o t obscu re t h i s f a c t .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We w o u l d s p e c i a l l y l i k e t o t hank t h e f o i l o w i n g p e o p l e f o r t h e h e l p t h e y gave i n p r e p a r i n g t h i s s t u d y : Mr.V. E. S i khondze ( P r i n c i p a l S e c r e t a r y ) , Tony Crasner and Jochen Reu te r i n t h e Depar tment o f Economic ? l ann ing and S t a t i s t i c s ; Mr. D . Lukhe le , Paul Kenene and James Denman i n t h e C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e ; Mr . J .A . B l e y s , W i lmo th Maz ibuko and W i l s o n Lukhe le i n t h e Depar tment o f F o r e s t r y ; P a t r i c k Lukhe l e o f t h e Ru ra l Development Areas; H a r r y Nkambule o-F t h e Swazi ' land E l e c t r i c i t y Board; Mr .Ma l i nga ( U n d e r - S e c r e t a r y ) i n t h e M i n i s t r y o f Commerce, I n d u s t r y , Mines and Tou r i sm; Mr .G .Mab i l a (Permanent S e c r e t a r y ) , D r . G . i i b s e k a l , Tom Brook and G.Bishop i n t h e M i n i s t r y o f Works, Power and Communicat ion; Mr.Gwebu and Mr .Brook f r o m t h e Usu tu P u l p M i l l ; a i l t h e p e o p l e a t t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s Women and Development p r o j e c t , i n p a r t i c u l a r D u m i s i l e S k i ba; s t a f f a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Swaz i l and ; and f i n a l l y v e r y many thanks f o r t h e he1 p p r o v i d e d b y many o t h e r unnamed i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e c o u n t r y .

SELECTED SOURCES

A f r i c a n Bus iness , August 1982

B a r c l ays, 1981, Swazi l and. An Economic Survey and Bus inessman 's Guide

Bergan I n t e r n a t i o n a l , 1981, Ngwenya S t r u c t u r e P1 an, P a r t I I -

J.A.B leys , 1979, Work ing Paper f o r t h e Seventh Regu la r M e e t i n g o f SARCCUS S t a n d i n g Commit tee f o r F o r e s t r y

C e n t r a l Bank o f Swaz i land, ( v a r i o u s y e a r s ) , Q u a r t e r l y Review, Mbabane

C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e , ( v a r i o u s y e a r s ) , Annual S t a t i s t i c a l B u l l e t i n , Mbabane

C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e , 1981, Timber S t a t i s t i c s f o r 1980, Mbabane

C.S.O., 1981, Annual Survey o f Swazi N a t i v e Land 1980-81

Dept o f Economic P l a n n i n g and S t a t i s t i c s , n .d . , Economic Review 1978-81

F i n a n c i a l Times, 21 August 1980

G e o l o g i c a l Su rvey and Mines Depar tment , 1981, A Note on t h e Coal Resources o f Swaz i l and

Government o f Swaz i l and, n . d . , T h i r d N a t i o n a l Devel opment P1 an (1978-83), Mbabane

Government o f Swaz i land, 198i, Swaz i l and . Water and Re1 a t e d Land Resources Framework P1 an, Mbabane

W.M.Lukhele, E.Rowley, J . A l l e n , 1982, R e p o r t o f E a s t A f r i c a n F o r e s t r y Workshop, May 1982

M i n i s t r y o f Commerce, I n d u s t r y , Mines and Tour ism, 1982, S w a z i l a n d Energy M a s t e r p l a n ( i n t e r i m r e p o r t ) , Mbabane

17. South A f r i c a n Labour B u l l e t i n , Vo l . 7, No. 6, 1982

18. Swaz i l and E l e c t r i c i t y Board, 1981, The N i n e t e e n t h Annual R e p o r t

19. The Swazi Observer

20. The Times, 1 s t September 1981

21. The Times o f Swaz i land, 1 s t June 1982

22. F . de V l e t t a r , 1981, The Swazi Rura l Homestead, mimeo

C H A P T E R 3

TANZANIA

Kei t h D p e n s h a w

SYMBOLS

KWhr - -

MW - -

TWhr - -

J o u l e : 1 J o u l e = 0 .24 C a l o r i e s : 4 .18 J = 1 c a l

3 K i l a J o u l e : 1000 J o u l e s o r 1 0 J .

Mega J o u l e 106J

Giga J o u l e 10'5

Te ra J o u l e 1 0 ~ ~ 5

Pe ta J o u l e l 0 l 5 5

Wat t 1 Wat t / hou r = 3600 J o u l e s = 861 c a l o r i e s

3 K i l a Wa t t hou r = 10 W

Megawatt = 106w

Te ra Wat t h r = 1 0 ' ~ ~ / h r

Conve rs ion F a c t o r s , u n l e s s o t h e r w i s e s t a t e d .

Wood - (15% m o i s t u r e c o n t e n t d r y b a s i s ) = 1 6 . 0 GJ/Tonne

Charcoa l - (5% m.c. ) = 33 .1 GJ/Tonne

Crop Res idues (15% m.c) = 13 .9 GJ/Tonne

Animal Dung (15% m.c. ) = 12 .8 GJ/Tonne

Coal ( T a n z a n i a ) = 22.0 GJ/Tonne

Natura ! gas (methane Tanzan ia ) = 37.0 MJ/m 3

O i l p r o d u c t s = 45.0 GJ/Tonne

E l e c t r i c i t y = 3 .6 PJ/TWhr

INTRODUCTION

Tanzan ia s i t u a t e d on t h e e a s t c o a s t o f A f r i c a has an a r e a o f 95 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s (946,000 square k i l o m e t r e s ) o f w h i c h a b o u t 89 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s a r e l a n d and 6 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s a r e wa te r , a1 t hough because o f s e a s o n a l i t y t h e w a t e r a r e a may i n c r e a s e t o some 7 m i l l i o n ha . . Wel l o v e r h a l f t h e l a n d i s above 1000 m e t r e s i n h e i g h t and j u s t under 20% o v e r 1500 m. h i g h .

The c o u n t r y i s bounded by t h e I n d i a n ocean on t h e e a s t and l a k e s Nyasa, Tangany ika and V i c t o r i a on t h e w e s t and n o r t h , w i t h t h e Ruvuma r i v e r f o r m i n g t h e s o u t h e r n bounda ry w i t h Mozambique.

The ave rage annual r a i n f a l l i s a b o u t 800 mm. and a p p r o x i m a t e l y h a l f t h e l and a r e a r e c e i v e s more t h a n 750 mm. p e r y e a r b u t l e s s t h a n 5 % r e c e i v e s more t h a n 1250 mm. a n n u a l l y . However, t h e p o t e n t i a l e v a p o r a t i o n r a t e i s more t h a n t h e annua l r a i n f a l l f o r p r a c t i c a l l y a l l t h e c o u n t r y , t h u s t h e scope f o r e x t e n s i v e a r a b l e a g r i c u l t u r e i s l i m i t e d w i t h o u t mass i ve c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t . T h i s i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e v e g e t a t i o n c o v e r and l a n d use w h i c h a r e shown i n T a b l e 3 .1 .

Most o f t h e l a n d i s open woodland, bush land , savanna o r g r a s s l a n d and i t o n l y has a l o w a g r i c u l t u r a l p o t e n t i a l , a1 t hough some o f t h e a r e a c o u l d be made more f e r t i l e b y i r r i g a t i o n o r by t h e c o n t r o l o f f l o o d w a t e r s . W i t h such l a r g e a reas o f wood1 ands and r o u g h g r a z i n g a l a r g e an imal p o p u l a t i o n b o t h w i l d and domes t i c i s t o be expec ted . The number o f w i l d an ima ls i s unknown b u t an a r e a o f 9 .2 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s has been s e t a s i d e f o r n a t i o n a l p a r k s and game r e s e r v e s . The e s t i m a t e d domes t i c an imal p o p u l a t i o n e x c l u d i n g f o w l i s abou t 22 m i l l i o n o f w h i c h 14 m i l l i o n a r e c a t t l e and t h e rema inde r goa ts , sheep and p i g s . I n a d d i t i o n t h e r e c o u l d be 14 t o 16 m i l l i o n pou l t r y .

The 1982 p o p u l a t i o n i s a b o u t 1 9 . 8 m i l l i o n o f w h i c h 1 7 . 2 m i l l i o n l i v e i n r u r a l a reas and 2 . 6 m i l l i o n a r e u rban based. However, s i x t y p e r c e n t o f a l l t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v e on o n l y 15% o f t h e l a n d area, namely i n towns and a round t h e f e r t i l e a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s o f t h e n o r t h e r n and s o u t h e r n h i g h l a n d s , Lake V i c t o r i a and t h e c o a s t . I t i s government p o l i c y t o i n c r e a s e t h e s t a n d a r d o f l i v i n g o f t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n b y b r i n g i n g p e o p l e t o g e t h e r i n v i l l a g e s and p r o v i d i n g them w i t h c e r t a i n b a s i c f a c i l i t i e s . However, t h e r e may be a c o n f l i c t between t h e p o l i c y aims and t h e e c o l o g i c a l c a p a c i t y o f t h e l a n d , f o r many o f t h e l o w r a i n f a l l a reas w i l l n o t t o l e r a t e h i g h c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f peop le w i t h o u t damage t o t h e s o i l s t r u c t u r e and s o i l f e r t i l i t y .

The a n t i c i p a t e d p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e i s 3 .4 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r and, t h e r e f o r e , b y t h e y e a r 2000 i t i s a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n k i l l have grown t o some 36 .1 m i l l i o n peop le , w i t h 25.2 a i l l i o n l i v i n g i n r u r a l a reas and 10 .9 m i l l i o n r e s i d i n g i n towns. T h i s l a r g e i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n imp1 i e s t h a t t h e c o u n t r y w i l l have t o n e a r l y doub le i t s f o o d p r o d u c t i o n by t h e t u r n o f t h e c e n t u r y i f i t i s g o i n g t o be s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t i n f o o d .

Tanzania 1982: Land Area By V e g e t a t i o n Type And Land Use.

V e g e t a t i o n Area M i l l . Ha. Land Use

A1 p i n e 0 . 1 0 .1 Water Catchment T r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t i n c l u d i n g

mangrove 0 .9 1 . 0 F o r e s t & Water

P l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t 0 . 1 Catchment Farm i and ( o f w h i c h l a r g e farms

0.6 m.ha) 4 .6 4 .6 Arab1 e a g r i c u l t u r e

Sub T o t a l 5 .7 5 . 7 Sub T o t a l

Wood1 ands I n t e r m e d i a t e wood1 ands

Savanna Grass Bus h Swamp

32.6 Open wood1 ands 10 .8 36.6 Wood p r o d u c t s , game,

honey, e t c . 16 .4 44.2 Rough g r a z i n g

8 . 7 1 .5 Urban, roads , r i v e r s , e t c . 1 3 . 7

0 .7

Sub T o t a l 82.9 82 .3 Sub T o t a l

T o t a l l a n d a rea Lakes a rea T o t a l Area

88.6 88.6 T o t a l l and use 6 . 0 6 . 0 F i s h i n g

94.6 94.6 T o t a l a l l uses

The 1982 g r o s s domes t i c p r o d u c t (GDP) i s some US$ 4945 m i l l i o n ( 1 ) o r on average US$ 250 p e r head. However, t h e r e i s a d i s p a r i t y between u rban income o f US$ 1300 p e r c a p i t a and r u r a l income, an e s t i m a t e d US$ 90 ( o f w h i c h o n l y US$ 40 i s a c t u a l cash and t h e r e m a i n i n g US$ 53 s u b s i s t e n c e i ncome) . T h i s skew d i s t r i b u t i o n means t h a t t h e t o p 20% o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n e a r n abou t 50% o f t h e income and t h e l o w e s t 20% have l e s s t han 10% o f t h e income. P h i s i s a l e s s e r d i s p a r i t y t h a n o c c u r s i n mos t d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , b u t i s s t i l l w o r t h y o f n o t e .

A g r i c u l t u r e i s t h e ma in i n d u s t r y and accoun ts f o r 40% o f t h e GDP whereas m a n u f a c t u r i n g accoun ts f o r 12%, w h o l e s a l e and r e t a i l t r a d i n g 13%, pub1 i c admin i s t r a t i o n 12%, t r a n s p o r t 9%, f i n a n c e and i n s u r a n c e 8%, and c o n s t r u c t i o n 6%. Between 1970 and 1979, a c c o r d i n g t o t h e 1981 Wor ld Bank ' s " W o r l d Development Repo r t " , T a n z a n i a ' s GDP grew a t an average r a t e o f 4 .9% i n r e a l terms, a l t h o u g h s i n c e 1980 t h e r e has been a s l o w i n g down w i t h GDP b a r e l y k e e p i n g pace w i t h g r o w t h i n p o p u l a t i o n . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e above r e p o r t , a g r i c u l t u r a l o u t p u t grew a t 4 .9% p e r y e a r , m a n u f a c t u r i n g a t 3.6%, t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r 5 .9% and i n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t a t o n l y 1 .9% between 1970 and 1979. D u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d g r o s s domes t i c i n v e s t m e n t grew a t 3 .0% p e r y e a r .

L i k e many c o u n t r i e s , Tanzan ia i s r u n n i n g a b a l a n c e o f payments d e f i c i t and i t i s e s t i m a t e d t o be, i n 1981, a b o u t 10% o f t h e GDP. The d e f i c i t i s g r o w i n g m a i n l y because t h e r e a l v a l u e o f a g r i c u l t u r a l goods i s d e c l i n i n g and t h e s e p r o d u c t s a c c o u n t f o r a b o u t 80% o f t h e e x p o r t e a r n i n g s . On t h e o t h e r hand t h e p r i c e o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s has been i n c r e a s i n g . I n 1979 t h e y c o s t US$ 180 m i l l i o n w h i c h i s more t h a n 30% o f e x p o r t e a r n i n g s .

W i t h t h e p o p u l a t i o n p r e d i c t e d t o i n c r e a s e b y o v e r 80% between 1982 and 2000 and more i m p o r t a n t l y w i t h t h e u rban p o p u l a t i o n e s t i m a t e d t o q u a d r u p l e f r o m 2.6 m i l l i o n t o 1 0 . 9 m i l l i o n d u r i n g t h e same p e r i o d , t h e r e w i l l be g row ing p r e s s u r e on t h e government t o p r o v i d e more energy , e s p e c i a1 l y commerci a1 ene rgy . I f t h e b u l k o f t h i s i n c r e a s e i s t o be me t f r o m i n d i g e n o u s r e s o u r c e s i t i s as we1 l t o examine t h e p r e s e n t consumpt ion p a t t e r n and see how f o r e c a s t e d demand can be me t f r o m t h e v a r i o u s a1 t e r n a t i v e s u p p l y sou rces .

ENERGY CONSUMPTION I N TANZANIA

An e s t i m a t e o f t h e 1980 consumpt ion o f ene rgy i s g i v e n i n Tab le 3 .2 and i n g r e a t e r d e t a i l i n append ices 3 . 1 and 3 . 2 . I t w i l l be seen t h a t t h e t r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s accoun t f o r a b o u t 91% o f T a n z a n i a ' s 1980 e n e r g y consumpt ion and p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s o n l y 8%. However, even t h i s r e l a t i v e l y sma l l q u a n t i t y o f o i l makes a c o n s i d e r a b l e demand on t h e c o u n t r y ' s f o r e i g n exchange and Tanzan ia can ill a f f o r d t o s u b s t a n t i a l l y i n c r e a s e consumpt ion o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , a1 though i f i t wants t o i n c r e a s e i t s economic a c t i v i t y i t mus t s t e p up i t s use o f e n e r g y and /o r i n c r e a s e t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f i t s use.

Tanzania 1980: EsJimated Consumption O f Energy By Type And End-Use

U n i t s Peta Joules (1015 J o u l e s )

Fuel Type Modern Fue ls T r a d i t i o n a l Fuel s

Fuel O r i g i n Impor ted Main1 y Ind igenous Ind igenous

Energy Source Petroleum El e c t r i - To ta l Sec t o r Products ( 3 ) c i t y ( 4 ) Coal Fuelwood Charcoal Residues ( % )

Household 2.73 0.78 0.00 264.74 12.14 7.61 288.00

A g r i c u l t u r e ( 1 ) 3 .02 0.00 0.00 14.08 0.00 0.00 (68) 17.10

( 4 ) I n d u s t r y ( 2 )

Serv ice Sector 1.42 0.83 0.00 28.80 0.44 0.00 31.49

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 15.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (7)

15.97 ( 4 )

TOTAL

Percentage

Source: 0 ' Keefe, P. e t a l . (Eds) Energy and Development i n Kenya: O p p o r t u n i t i e s and C o n s t r a i n t s , i n Energy, Environment and Development Vol.1 (Stockholm: The B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e ) .

1. Excludes animate energy, b o t h human and domestic animals, which may be i n t h e r e g i o n o f 12 Peta Joules. 2. Indusxry i n c l udes c o t t a g e i n d u s t r y and a1 l c o n s t r u c t i o n . 3. Natura l gas has been found b u t consumption i n 1980 i s zero. " r n o , ? 8.. ,... -. " n o , r..- ~ 2~ L.~, -.L.., . .~ 8 ~L

Households a r e t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t end u s e r s o f e n e r g y and c o o k i n g i s t h e p r i n c i p a l end - use, a1 though i n h i g h l a n d a reas h e a t i n g i s s i g n i f i c a n t . I n d u s t r y i s t h e n e x t mos t i m p o r t a n t use r o f ene rgy w i t h c o t t a g e i n d u s t r i e s , p r i n c i p a l l y b r e w i n g a c c o u n t i n g f o r 85% o f e n e r g y used i n t h i s s e c t o r . The s e r v i c e s e c t o r , wh i ch accoun ts f o r 7% o f ene rgy consumpt ion i s t h e n e x t mos t i m p o r t a n t use, b u t h e r e a g a i n ene rgy f o r c o o k i n g domina tes . T r a n s p o r t , w h i c h uses an e s t i m a t e d 5% o f ene rgy i s mos t i m p o r t a n t as f a r as f o r e i g n exchange i s concerned, f o r t h i s s e c t o r consumes o v e r 50% o f i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . F i n a l l y a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e most i m p o r t a n t i n d u s t r y i n t h e c o u n t r y , o n l y consumes 4% o f t h e ene rgy , a l t h o u g h i f an ima te energy i s i n c l u d e d t h i s p e r c e n t a g e may be a b o u t 7%. N e v e r t h e l e s s , i t i s e x t r e m e l y l o w i n p r o p o r t i o n t o i t s i m p o r t a n c e and t h e r e mus t be a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e ene rgy i n p u t i f a g r i c u l t u r a l o u t p u t i s t o s u b s t a n t i a1 l y i n c r e a s e .

Use O f V a r i o u s Sources O f Energy .

A. P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s . I n 1980 Tanzan ia i m p o r t e d an e s t i m a t e d 31.50 P e t a J o u l e s o f e n e r g y i n t h e f o r m o f c r u d e o i l . T h i s 1s nea r t h e l i m i t , f o r t h e r a t e d c a p a c i t y o f t h e " T i p e r O i l R e f i n e r y " a t Dar-es-Salaam i s 2000 tonnes p e r day o r 0.73 m i l l i o n tonnes p e r y e a r , t h a t i s 32.85 i n PJ e q u i v a l e n t s . The t o t a l demand f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e r e f i n e d c a p a c i t y , t h e r e f o r e some r e f i n e d p r o d u c t s have t o be i m p o r t e d ; a l s o , a b o u t 50% o f t h e heavy end r e f i n e d p r o d u c t s a r e e x p o r t e d because o f l a c k o f l o c a l demand. T h i s f i g u r e c o u l d be reduced by, f o r example, c o n s t r u c t i n g a b i t umen p l a n t , and a f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y has a l r e a d y been unde r taken . F u r t h e r demand c o u l d be me t by expand ing t h e r e f i n e r y o r add ing a l u b r i c a n t b l e n d i n g u n i t . The l a t t e r p r o j e c t has a l r e a d y begun and t h e fo rmer i s t o be c o n s i d e r e d i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e c u r r e n t e x p l o r a t i o n programme.

E. E l e c t r i c i t y . About 60% o f T a n z a n i a ' s e l e c t r i c i t y i s f r o m hydropower and t h e r e i s c o n s i d e r a b l e p o t e n t i a1 t o i n c r e a s e t h i s ene rgy s o u r c e . However, many o f t h e consumpt ion c e n t r e s a r e i s o l a t e d and t h e c o s t o f b r i n g i n g e l e c t r i c i t y t o them by c o n n e c t i n g t o t h e g r i d system, an e s t i m a t e d US$ 7000 t o 9000 p e r k i l o m e t r e , may be t o o h i g h . The g r i d sys tem s h o u l d o n l y be ex tended where economica l l y f e a s i b l e . A1 t e r n a t i v e s t o hydropower and d i e s e l / o i l f i r e d s t a t i o n s such as p r o d u c e r gas, wood f i r e d b o i l e r s s h o u l d be i n v e s t i g a t e d , f o r e l e c t r i c a l ene rgy i s an i m p o r t a n t m o t i v e f o r c e f o r economic deve lopment because o f i t s v e r s a t i l i t y and i t s h i g h end-use e f f i c i e n c y . However, more t h a n 50% o f t h e i n i t i a l e n e r g y i n p u t i s l o s t i n g e n e r a t i n g o r t r a n s m i t t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y (See Appendi X 3 . 3 ) . One v i t a l e l e m e n t i n e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n i s t o ensu re t h a t t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t power t o p roduce t h e e l e c t r i c i t y . T h i s i m p l i e s t h a t f o r hyd ro g e n e r a t i o n t h e r e s h o u l d be a gua ran teed minimum head o f w a t e r i n t h e dams. A t p r e s e n t t h e f i r m c a p a c i t y on t h e c o a s t a l g r i d sys tem

i s o n l y a b o u t 150 Mega i da t t s (PlW) whereas t h e i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y i s 299 MW, o f w h i c h 248 MW i s h y d r o power. T h e r e f o r e t h e main w a t e r ca t chmen t a reas mus t be p r o t e c t e d i f hyd ro power i s t o be used t o i t s p o t e n t i a l .

C . N a t u r a l Gas. A l t h o u g h n a t u r a l gas has been f o u n d i n a number o f s i t e s a l o n g t h e c o a s t t hese w e l l s have n o t y e t been deve loped f o r commercial p r o d u c t i o n . The w e l l a t Songo Songo produces m a i n l y methane w h i c h i s d i f f i c u l t t o t r a n s p o r t o v e r l o n g d i s t a n c e s . I t i s proposed t o bse t h i s ene rgy sou rce as a f e e d s t o c k f o r n i t r o g e n f e r t i l i z e r p r o d u c t i o n . I t has been e s t i m a t e d t h a t two w e l l s c o u l d p roduce two m i l l i o n m" p e r day f o r 25 y e a r s (13.5 P J / y ) . A l s o i f compress ion i s a p p l i e d t o t h e two w e l l s a f t e r t h i s i r i i t i a l p e r i o d , and an a d d i t i o n a l w e l l g r i l l e d , t h e n t h e complex c o u l d go on p r o d u c i n g 1 m i l l i o n m f o r an a d d i t i o n a l 33 y e a r s . F u r t h e r gas f i n d s have been l o c a t e d nea r t o Dar- es-Sal aam and t h e r e i s a1 so o p t i m i sm a b o u t f i n d i n g e x p l o i tab1 e o i l . However, b o t h t h e s e p o t e n t i a1 sou rces o f ene rgy w i l l r e q u i r e a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f f o r e i g n exchange t o deve l O D .

D. Coa l . Coal has been f o u n d i n t h e Sou the rn h i g h l a n d s a t Songwe-Kiwi ra nea r Lake Nyasa. The r e c o v e r a b l e r e s e r v e s a r e e s t i m a t e d t o be 300 m i l l i o n tonnes o r a b o u t 9000 PJ. When t h e p r e s e n t mines a r e w o r k i n g a t f u l l c a p a c i t y t h e p r o d u c t i o n s h o u l d be a b o u t 150,000 tonr ies p e r yea r , a l t h o u g h a t p r e s e n t , o u t p u t i s o n l y some 7000 t o 10,000 tonnes p e r y e a r . F u l l p r o d u c t i o n w i l l depend on f i n d i n g marke ts , b u t p o t e n t i a l domes t i c consumpt ion i s l o w because o f h i g h t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . One such m a r k e t i s a p roposed 24 MW power s t a t i o n j o i n e d t o t h e g r i d w h i c h wou ld coqsume a b o u t 40,000 t o 50,000 tonnes o f c o a l p e r y e a r . A t p r e s e n t , t h e m ined c o a l i s b e i n g used b y t h r e e t e a f a c t o r i e s t o d r y t i - ~e t e a p l u s a l i t t l e b y i n d u s t r y i n Dar-es-Salaam.

E. Wood F u e l s and Crop Residues.. These e n e r g y f o r n s a r e t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t sou rces and t h e r e f o r e t h e y w i l l be d e a l t w i t h i n d e t a i l i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , s u f f i c e i t t o say t h a t , a l t h o u g h f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a who le t h e r e i s a s u r p l u s o f wood energy , because o f p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n s t h e r e a r e l o c a l sho r tages w h i c h means t h a t t h e f o r e s t and woodland c a p i t a l i s b e i n g eroded.

E f f i c i e n c y I n End Use. There i s c o n s i d e r a b l e scope f o r i m p r o v i n g - t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f end-use d e v i c e s . Cook ing i s t h e p r i n c i p a l use b o t h f o r f u e l w o o d and c h a r c o a l ; c u r r e n t s t o v e e f f i c i e n c i e s v a r y between 10-20% w h i c h i s l o w i n conpar isor ; t o kerosene ( p a r a f f i n ) and e l e c t r i c a l s t o v e s , whose e f f i c i e n c y a r e i n t h e range o f 50-80%. I f end use e f f i c i e n c y were t a k e n i n t o accoun t when c o m p i l i n g t h e f i n a l consumpt ion o f e n e r g y f o r Tanzan ia , t hen t h e t r a d i t i o c a l f u e l s sha re may d rop t o some 64% and e l e c t r i c i t y and p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i n c r e a s e t o 3 6 % . T h e r e f o r e , f a r mcre u s e f u l

work c o u l d be o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g ene rgy s u p p l y and t h i s s h o u l d be an - important s t r a t e g y i n e n e r g y p l a n n i n g f o r a l l c o u n t r i e s . I n c r e a s i n g e f f i c i e n c y s h o u l d n o t o n l y be aimed a t end use b u t a t i n t e r m e d i a t e use, such as e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n (and t r a n s m i s s i o n ) and c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n .

CONSUMPTION OF BIOMASS

Biomass and i n p a r t i c u l a r woody b iomass i s t h e l a r g e s t sou rce o f e n e r g y i n m o s t d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s . T r a d i t i o n a l l y d r y wood i s f r e e l y c o l l e c t e d by t h e househo lde r and b u r n t d i r e c t l y i n a s i m p l e f i r e p l a c e and used f o r cook ing , h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g and f o o d p r e s e r v a t i o n . I f wood i s s h o r t o r j u s t a f t e r t h e h a r v e s t , c r o p r e s i d u e s a r e b u r n t and sometimes dung i s d r i e d and used as f u e l . Wood i s a l s o used b y i n d u s t r y and t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r f o r t obacco c u r i n g , f i s h smoki ng, b r i c k and p o t f i r i n g , b r e a d b a k i n g , t e a d r y i n g , b r e w i n g and c o o k i n g meals i n r e s t a u r a n t s and can teens .

I n t h e past,wood was o c c a s i o n a l l y m o d i f i e d t o c h a r c o a l and used f o r i r o n i n g and r o a s t i n g meat a ~ d ma ize . W i t h t h e expans ion o f towns f u e l w o o d became d i f f i c u l t t o o b t a i n so c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n became c o m m e r c i a l i s e d and t r e e s were s y s t e m a t i c a l l y c u t a t e v e r i n c r e a s i n g d i s t a n c e s f r o m t h e towns. As y e t , wood f o r ene rgy has o n l y been m o d i f i e d t o c h a r c o a l on a l arge s c a l e b u t sma l l s c a l e d e n s i f i c a t i o n o f wood has t a k e n p l a c e , t h e d e n s i f i e d wood b e i n g used as a b o i l e r f u e l . L i q u i d and gaseous e n e r g y can a l s o be p roduced f r o m wood and commercial p r o d u c e r gas (and w a t e r gas) eng ines , w i t h wood o r c h a r c o a l as t h e f u e l sou rce . These a r e b e i n g m a n u f a c t u r e d i~ such c o u n t r i e s as Sweden and I n d o n e s i a . Methano l (wood a l c o h o l ) can a l s o be made by t h e d e s t r u c t i v e d i s t i l l a t i o n o f wood, as can p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s . T h e r e f o r e , i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t a c o u n t r y , i f i t had e x p l o i t a b l e a u a n t i t i e s o f wood, c o u l d use i t n o t o n l y as a t r a d i t i o n a i f u e l b u t a l s o as a modern f u e l . However, t h e c o s t o f p r o d u c i n g l i q u i d f u e l S f rom wood c a n n o t a t p r e s e n t compete w i t h p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , b u t i n many a reas wood i s t h e cheapes t b o i l e r f u e l p r o v i d e d i t i s grown i n c l o s e p r o x i m i t y t o t h e end- user. T h e r e f o r e r e 1 a t i v e l y cheap i n d i g e n o u s f u e l s c a u l d be used t o promote t h e economic deve lopment o f a c o u n t r y , What i s more, i f t h e g row ing o f wood i s p r o p e r l y managed i t c o u l d be an i n c r e a s i n g and renewab le sou rce o f ene rgy .

E s t i m a t e d Consumption o f B iomas j i n Tanzan ia .

The e s t i m a t e d consumpt ion o f b iomass ene rgy i s shown i n Tab le 3 . 3 t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e consumpt ion o f o t h e r wood p r o d u c t s .

Woodfuel , a p a r t f r o m b e i n g t h e dominan t f u e l i n Tanzan ia , is a l s o t h e p r i n c i p a l use o f wood, a c c o u n t i n g F o r 96% z f

TABLE 3.3

Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d C o n s u m ~ t i o n O f Wood Produc ts And A g r i c u l t u r a l k e s i d u e s

U n i t s : M i l l i o n Tonnes Roundwood E q u i v a l e n t

o d u c t Source: Domest ic I m p o r t s E x p o r t Consumption ( 4 )

P r o d u c t i o n ( P ) ( I ) (E) ( c ) ( X )

o d f u e l 27.38 - 27.62 l e s ( 1 ) 0 .68 - - 0.57 dnwood ( 2 ) 0 .44 - 0.00 0 .31 ne l P roduc ts 0.03 0.00 0 .00 0.03 pe r P roduc ts 0.12 0 .12

t a l Wood Produc ts 28.53 0.12 0.00 28.65 (100)

r i c u l t u r a l Res idues 0 .58 0 .58 ( 2 )

J r ce : Openshaw, K. 1972. Wood consumpt ion s u r v e y and t i m b e r t r e n d s s t u d y . F Rome ( a d a p t e d ) .

1 0 .11 m i l l t used as f u e l . 1 0.13 m i l l t used as f u e l . 1 Fuelwood 79% Charcoa l 17% 1 No s t o c k changes assumped C = P+I-E

consumpt ion . However, t h e s u p p l y of t h i s p r o d u c t t o g e t h e r w i t h p o l e s w h i c h a r e m a i n l y used b y t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n f o r house b u i l d i n g and f e n c i n g , has n o t been p1 anned f o r , p r i n c i p a l l y because i t h a r d l y e n t e r e d t h e commerc ia l s e c t o r . On t h e o t h e r hand, Tanzan ia a l r e a d y produces enough sawnwood and pane l p r o d u c t s t o meet i t s own r e q u i r e m e n t s on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s and a 60,000 tonne p e r y e a r p u l p m i l l i s c u r r e n t l y b e i n g b u i l t a t Sao H i l l w h i c h s a t i s f y mos t o f T a n z a n i a ' s demand f o r v a r i o u s grades o f pape r . B u t t h e p r e s s i n g p rob lem t h a t needs t h e u r g e n t a t t e n t i o n o f government i s t o p l a n f o r a s u s t a i n e d s u p p l y o f f ue lwood b o t h f o r househo ld and non- househo ld use.

Consumption o f Biomass By User and Use I n Tanzan ia .

T a b l e 3.4A and Append ix 3.4A g i v e t h e e s t i m a t e d consumpt ion o f b iomass b y end- user, whereas Tab le 3 .48 and Append ix 3.4B g i v e t h e consumpt ion by end use. I t w i l l be obse rved t h a t househo lds a r e t h e dominan t end u s e r s o f b iomass (and ene rgy i n g e n e r a l ) a c c o u n t i n g f o r a b o u t 71% o f consumpt ion, ( r u r a l 62% u r b a n 9 % ) . I n d u s t r y i s t h e n e x t mos t i m p o r t a n t a t 19%, f o l l o w e d b y t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r a t 7% w i t h a g r i c u l t u r e a t 3%. However, t h e d i s t i n c t i o n between a g r i c u l t u r a l use and i n d u s t r i a1 use i s n o t c l e a r c u t as t h e r e a r e many a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s such as t ea , t obacco and sugar w h i c h c o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d one o r t h e o t h e r . Tobacco c u r i n g i s m a i n l y u n d e r t a k e n by t h e f a r m e r i n h i s own c u r i n g b a r n and, t h e r e f o r e , t h i s has been c l a s s i f i e d as a g r i c u l t u r a l use, whereas suga r and t e a p r o c e s s i n g a r e unde r taken i n f a c t o r i e s and a r e c o n s i d e r e d as i n d u s t r i a l use. S i m i l a r l y t h e d i v i s i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l use i n t o l a r g e , u rban i n f o r m a l , r u r a l c o t t a g e and c o n s t r u c t i o n i s n o t h a r d and f a s t and some i n d u s t r i e s may f a l l i n t o more t h a n one c a t e g o r y .

T u r n i n g t o end use, c o o k i n g w h i c h i n c l u d e s p r e p a r i n g f o o d b o t h f o r human and domes t i c an imal consumpt ion, b o i l i n g w a t e r f o r beverages, b r e a d b a k i n g , sweet m a n u f a c t u r e , e t c , i s t h e most i m p o r t a n t end use a c c o u n t i n g f o r an e s t i m a t e d 63% o f biomass consumpt ion. O the r househo ld uses such as h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g , b o i l i n g w a t e r f o r washing, p r o t e c t i o n , i r o n i n g , c r o p p r e s e r v a t i o n , e t c , a r e t h e n e x t mos t i m p o r t a n t g roup a t 16%. O f c o u r s e t h e f i r e can be used f o r more t h a n one purpose a t t h e same t i m e and so t h e d i v i s i o n between househo ld c o o k i n g and o t h e r uses i s n o t s t r i c t . Brewing, b o t h l e g a l and ii l e g a l , i s t h e n e x t most i m p o r t a n t use o f b i omass (10%), f o l l owed b y mi s c e l l aneous i n d u s t r i e s such as b l acksmi t h i n g , b r i c k b u r n i n g and l ime m a n u f a c t u r e ( 6 % ) . F i n a l l y , r u r a l p r o c e s s i n g w h i c h i n c l u d e s a g r i c u l t u r a l , f o r e s t r y and f i s h p r o c e s s i n g consumes an e s t i m a t e d 5 % o f b iomass ene rgy .

W i t h r e g a r d s t o cook ing , i t has been men t i oned p r e v i o u s l y t h a t wood fue l s t o v e s a r e r e 1 a t i v e l y i n e f f i c i e n t . I t i s ; oss ib le t o i n t r o d u c e s t o v e s t h a t c o u l d save up t o 53% o f wood energy , e s p e c i a l l y i n u r b a n a reas . I f 10% o f t h e 1980 r u r a l c o o k i n g

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TABLE 3.4B

Tanzania 1980: Es t ima ted Consumption Of Biomass By End-Use.

User Energy: Fuelwood Charcoal Woodfuel ( % ) Residues To ta l ( % )

Cooking 1 4 . 6 6 2 . 5 9 17 .25 ( 6 2 ) 0 . 4 8 1 7 . 7 3 ( 6 3 ) Household o t h e r use 3 .76 0 .67 4 .43 ( 1 6 ) 0 . 0 0 4 . 4 3 ( 1 6 ) Rural P r o c e s s i n g 1 . 2 7 0 . 0 0 1 . 2 7 ( 5 ) 0 . 1 0 1 . 3 7 ( 5 ) Brewing 2 .94 0 . 0 0 2 .94 ( 1 1 ) 0 . 0 0 2 . 9 4 ( 1 0 ) Misc. I n d u s t r i e s 0 . 1 1 1 . 6 1 1 . 7 2 ( 6 ) 0 .00 1 . 7 2 ( 6 )

To ta l ( P e r c e n t a g e )

Sources : Lundgren, B . ( e d ) 1975. Land u s e i n Kenya and Tanzan ia , Royal C o l l e g e o f F o r e s t r y , Stockholm, Sweden. Zera i Araya, 1981. V i l l a g e F o r e s t r y i n Tanzan ia , F o r e s t r y D i v i s i o n , M i n i s t r y o f Resources and Tourism, Tanzan ia .

e n e r g y and 25% o f u r b a n and o t h e r c o o k i n g ene rgy c o u l d be saved b y t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f improved s toves , t h e n t h i s w o u l d save t h e e q u i v a l e n t o f a b o u t 2 m i l l i o n tonnes o f wood p e r y e a r o r 32 PJ o f ene rgy , n e a r l y 8% o f t h e 1980 e n e r g y consumpt ion. Thus i t i s p o s s i b l e b y i m p r o v i n g t h e e n d- u s e e f f i c i e n c y t o save t h e househo lde r and t h e c o u n t r y a s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t y o f ene rgy .

A l l t h e uses o f b iomass f u e l a r e dependent t o a l a r g e e x t e n t on t h e wood fue l o r b iomass b e i n g n e a r t h e consumer, a l t h o u g h f o r c h a r c o a l t h e economic t r a n s p o r t r a d i u s can be as much as 200 kms b y r o a d and 350 kms by r a i l , b u t even so t h e sou rce has t o b e r e l a t i v e l y nea r t h e consumer. T h e r e f o r e i t i s p e r t i n e n t t o examine t h e p o t e n t i a l s u p p l y o f b iomass t o d e t e r m i n e wha t i s r e q u i r e d t o e n s u r e t h a t i t w i l l be a v a i l a b l e i n s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s i n t h e f o r s e e a b l e f u t u r e .

SUPPLY OF BIOMASS

Because v e r y l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n has been p a i d t o t h e demand f o r wood fue l and a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s , no su rveys have been u n d e r t a k e n t o d e t e r m i n e t h e s u s t a i n a b l e s u p p l y o f t h e s e i n d i g e n o u s f u e l s . However, su rveys have been u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e p l a n t a t i o n s , f o r e s t s and woodlands b u t t h e s e have been c o n f i n e d t o d e t e r m i n i n g t h e commercial l y e x p l o i t ab1 e stem wood. From an ene rgy v i e w p o i n t a l l woody biomass r s b u r n a b l e i n c l u d i n g branches and r o o t s down t o t h e s m a l l e s t d i a m e t e r . Indeed, s m a l l d i ame te r wood i s f a v o u r e d b y t h e housew i fe f o r i t i s b o t h e a s i e r t o c u t w i t h h e r s i m p l e t o o l s and t o c a r r y on t h e head. T h e r e f o r e , when a s s e s s i n g p o t e n t i a l woodfue l a v a i l a b i l i t y , a1 l woody biomass s h o u l d be c o n s i d e r e d and t h i s i n c l u d e s f a r m t r e e s , c o f f e e and t e a bushes, hedges, r o a d s i d e t r e e s , savanna and b u s h l a n d wood as w e l l as t h e more c o n v e n t i o n a l wood i n p l a n t a t i o n s , f o r e s t s and woodlands. i t i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t t h a t t h e q u a n t i t y i s d e t e r m i n e d a t t h e l o c a l l e v e l r a t h e r t h a n r e g i o n a l o r n a t i o n a l l e v e l s because, f o r r u r a l peop le a t l e a s t , t h e wood sou rce has t o be w i t h i n w a l k i n g d i s t a n c e o f t h e house. An i n v e n t o r y o f a l l b iomass has j u s t been u n d e r t a k e n i n Kenya b y t h e B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e ( 2 ) , and t h i s ill be used as t h e b a s i s f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i n d i g e n o u s renewab le ene rgy i n Tanzan ia .

Assessment Of Woody Biomass.

I n o r d e r t o assess t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f b iomass t h e c o u n t r y was f i r s t d i v i d e d on a r e g i o n a l b a s i s by v e g e t a t i o n t y p e and a d e t a i l e d breakdown i s g i v e n i n Append ix 3 . 5 . As s t a t e d above, a more d e t a i l e d assessment s h o u l d be made b y b u i l d i n g up t h e i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m a l o c a l o r d i s t r i c t l e v e l , b u t t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n was n o t a v a i l a b l e . Ten v e g e t a t i o n t y p e s were r e c o g n i s e d and these have a l r e a d y been l i s t e d i n T a b l e 3 .1 . F o r some o f t hese t ypes

such as a g r i c u l t u r e , p1 a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y , t r o p i c a l h i g h f o r e s t s and wood1 ands, r e g i o n a l a r e a breakdowns were a v a i l a b l e o r c o u l d be deduced, b u t f o r a l p i n e , bush land, savanna, g r a s s l a n d and swamp on1 y c o u n t r y t o t a l s were a v a i l a b l e . However, a l and use map was used t o g i v e a r e g i o n a l breakdown ( 3 ) . I t m u s t be remembered t h a t t h e r e i s no sha rp d i v i s i o n between n a t u r a l v e g e t a t i o n t ypes and t h e r e f o r e t h e f i g u r e s g i v e n i n Append ix 3.5 mus t be i n t e r p r e t e d as such. A l s o towns, roads, r i v e r s e t c , w h i c h occupy an e s t i m a t e d 1.5 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s have t o be s u b t r a c t e d f r o m t h e a r e a f i g u r e s b u t t h e y do n o t a l t e r t h e b a s i c assessment o f woody b iomass.

Once t h e a r e a o f each v e g e t a t i o n t ype , b y r e g i o n , has been c a l c u l a t e d t h e n average woody g r o w i n g s t o c k f i g u r e s can be a p p l i e d t o each t y p e . These average f i g u r e s were o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e Kenya s u r v e y men t i oned above. I t m u s t be s t r e s s e d t h a t such an e s t i m a t i o n i s no r e a l s u b s t i t u t e f o r a l o c a l i n v e n t o r y b u t i t has been used i n o r d e r t o make a p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e woody g r o w i n g s t o c k and y i e l d . Append ix 3 .6 t a b u l a t e s b y r e g i o n and v e g e t a t i o n t y p e t h e e s t i m a t e o f t o t a l above g round woody biomass u s i n g v a r i o u s c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r s l i s t e d i n t h e append ix , r a n g i n g f r o m 185 tonnes p e r ha f o r hardwood p l a n t a t i o n s down t o 4 t / h a on savanna l a n d . I n t h e p r e s e n t s u r v e y r o o t mass has n o t been e s t i m a t e d as i t i s r a r e l y used. Once t h e woody g r o w i n g s t o c k has been assessed t h e p o t e n t i a l annua l y i e l d b y r e g i o n and v e g e t a t i o n t y p e can be c a l c u l a t e d . Aga in , p o t e n t i a1 y i e l d s were e s t i m a t e d u s i n g c o n v e r s i o n f a c t o r s f r o m t h e Kenyan r e p o r t . I t mus t be s t r e s s e d t h a t t h e assessment o f y i e l d i s somewhat s u b j e c t i v e and can v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y w i t h i n one v e g e t a t i o n t y p e depend ing on t h e i n t e n s i t y o f management and t h e r o t a t i o n age p e r i o d . The s h o r t e r t h e r o t a t i o n t h e g r e a t e r t h e y i e l d as a p e r c e n t a g e o f g r o w i n g s t o c k , a l s o t h e more i n t e n s i v e t h e management t h e g r e a t e r t h e u n i t a r e a y i e l d . These two channe l s o f f e r c o n s i d e r a b l e scope f o r c o u n t r i e s t o i n c r e a s e t h e i r b iomass y i e l d even w i t h a reduced g row ing s t o c k and, t h e r e f o r e , t h e p o t e n t i a l y i e l d as g i v e n i n Appendix 6 s h o u l d n o t be t a k e n as t h e maximum p o t e n t i a l y i e l d . The y i e l d f i g u r e s assumed v a r y f r o m 33% o f g r o w i n g s t o c k f o r t e a and c o f f e e down t o 2 . 5 % f o r woodlands, bush lands and savanna, b u t e s p e c i a l l y i n wood land t h i s f i g u r e may be t o o h i g h i f annua l f i r e s a r e common, f o r such f i r e s c o u l d v e r y w e l l d e s t r o y t h e y e a r ' s g row th .

T a b l e 3 .5 g i v e s a summary o f t o t a l woody b iomass and p o t e n t i a l y i e l d b y v e g e t a t i o n t ypes whereas Tab le 3 .6 g i v e s t h e same i n f o r m a t i o n b y r e g i o n t o g e t h e r w i t h an e s t i m a t e o f consumpt ion.

The e s t i m a t e d g r o w i n g s t o c k o f woody b iomass i s j u s t o v e r 1900 m i l l i o n tonnes o f roundwood (30:500 PJ e q u i v a l e n t s ) and t h i s produces an annua l y i e l d o f n e a r l y 50 m i l l i o n tonnes o f wood, a g a i n s t an e s t i m a t e d consumpt ion o f 28 .5 m i l l i o n t onnes , T h e r e f o r e , i f t h e p o p u l a t i o n was e v e n l y sp read o v e r t h e c o u n t r y i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e woody g r o w i n g s t o c k t h e r e c o u l d be more t h a n

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s u f f i c i e n t i n c r e m e n t t o meet demand, p r o v i d e d t h e e s t i m a t e s a r e more o r l e s s c o r r e c t . However, 60% o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v e on 15% o f t h e l a n d , t h a t i s i n and around t h e h i g h p o t e n t i a l a reas and i t w i l l be seen f r o m Tab le 3 .6 t h a t h a l f o f t h e r e g i o n s have e s t i m a t e d consumpt ions g r e a t e r t h a n t h e assessed y i e l d s . Even i n r e g i o n s o f s u r p l u s t h e r e a r e u s u a l l y l o c a l pocke ts o f sho r tage r o u n d towns and on h i g h p o t e n t i a l a g r i c u l t u r a l l and. Where t h e r e a r e s h o r t a g e s t h e t r e e c a p i t a l w i l l be reduced t o meet t h e demand. When t r e e s become sca rce t h e p o p u l a t i o n t u r n t o b u r n i n g l e s s p r e f e r r e d c r o p r e s i d u e s and dung w h i c h may be t o t h e d e t r i m e n t o f t h e s o i l o r t h e y may even reduce t h e amount o f c o o k i n g l e a d i n g t o a decreased f o o d i n t a k e .

Assessment O f Crop Res idues and Dung.

To comp le te t h e p i c t u r e of a v a i l a b l e biomass an assessment o f c r o p r e s i d u e s and dung i s r e q u i r e d . I f t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a g r i c u l t u r a l c r o p s such as maize, sugar, c o t t o n , s i s a l , e t c , i s known and t h e domes t i c an imal p o p u l a t i o n counted, an e s t i m a t e o f t h e amount o f r e s i d u e s t h a t a r e t h e o r e t i c a l l y a v a i l a b l e f o r b u r n i n g can be made. However, no d e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n a t a r e g i o n a l l e v e l i s a v a i l a b l e f o r 1980 on c r o p p r o d u c t i o n , e t c , t h e r e f o r e on1 y a n a t i o n a l assessment o f a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s has been made and t h i s i s shown i n Tab le 3 .7 . I t i s based on a smoothed 1980 e s t i m a t e o f c r o p p r o d u c t i o n and an imal numbers.

The e s t i m a t e d p r o d u c t i o n o f c r o p r e s i d u e s i s 1 .84 m i l l i o n tonnes. Many o f t hese r e s i d u e s w i l l be l e f t i n t h e ground b u t maize cobs and r i c e husks, e t c , can be b u r n t . S i m i l a r l y t h e woody stems o f cassava and c o t t o n a r e b u r n t ; indeed, t h e c o t t o n p l a n t mus t be u p r o o t e d a f t e r h a r v e s t and b u r n t t o c o n t r o l nematodes. An e s t i m a t e d 7 .61 PJ (0 .58 m i l 1 . t ) o f c r o p r e s i d u e s and dung were b u r n t b y r u r a l households i n 1980.

Sugar cane and s i s a l l e a v e s a r e taken t o t h e f a c t o r y where t h e y a r e processed. Sugar cane was te - bagasse - i s b u r n t as a b o i l e r f u e l b u t s i s a l waste i s dumped. I n 1980 an e s t i m a t e d 1 .60 PJ (0 .12 m i l 1 . t ) o f bagasse were used i n t h e cane f a c t o r i e s b u t a l m o s t t w i c e t h i s amount c o u l d be used. The e s t i m a t e d p r o d u c t i o n o f an imal dung i s o f t h e o r d e r o f 8 . 8 m i l l i o n tonnes (106 PJ) b u t o f cou rse much o f t h i s i s produced i n open f i e l d s and g rass lands and i s t h e r e f o r e d i f f i c u l t t o c o l l e c t . Hence o n l y abou t 2% o f p r o d u c t i o n may be a c t u a l l y a v a i l a b l e f o r use.

I t i s p o s s i b l e t o use t h e dung t o produce b i o g a s u s i n g a d i g e s t e r b u t t h i s r e q u i r e s abou t US$ 115, o f w h i c h t h e f o r e i g n exchange component3 i s US$ 50, t o purchase t h e m a t e r i a l s and equ ipment f o r a 2 m /day p l a n t , enough f o r a f a m i l y o f 5 o r 6 . I t a l s o r e q u i r e s n e a r l y 5 tonnes o f dung and 5000 l i t r e s o f wa te r p e r y e a r (14 1 p e r d a y ) . A t t h e most, dung and/or b i o g a s can o n l y m a r g i n a l l y c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e s u p p l y o f ene rgy b y t h e y e a r 2000 and t h i s s t a t e m e n t i s a l s o t r u e f o r c r o p r e s i d u e s .

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An e s t i m a t e d 12 P3 o f a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s c o u l d have been used i n 1980, b u t t h i s i s o n l y 3% o f ene rgy consumpt ion, t h e r e f o r e woody b iomass w i l l be t h e ma in sou rce o f ene rgy i n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e and s t e p s mus t be t a k e n t o ensu re i t s a v a i l a b i l i t y .

COMMERCIAL ENERGY -

By c o n v e n t i o n commerci a1 e n e r g y i s u n d e r s t o o d t o be p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , n a t u r a l gas, e l e c t r i c i r y and c o a l whereas non- commerc ia l e n e r g y i s assumed t o be wood fue l , b i o g a s and a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s . However, i n mos t c o u n t r i e s t h e so c a l l e d non- commerc ia l f u e l s a r e t r a d e d and used i n d u s t r i a l l y . Indeed, i n Tanzan ia t h e s e f u e l s accoun t f o r a b o u t 64 p e r c e n t o f a l l commerc ia l f u e l s as T a b l e 3 .8 shows. T h e r e f o r e i n d i g e n o u s biomass i s a l r e a d y p l a y i n g a m a j o r r o l e i n i n d u s t r i a l deve lopment and i t s h o u l d n o t be r e g a r d e d as a second r a t e f u e l .

Commerci a1 Woodfuel and A g r i c u l t u r a l Res idues

The o n l y s e c t o r where woodfue l i s n o t used i s t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , b u t n o t l o n g ago wood was used as a b o i l e r f u e l i n steam eng ines f o r w a t e r and r a i l t r a n s p o r t . Now once a g a i n wood i s e n t e r i n g t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , b e i n g used as a f e e d s t o c k t o p roduce w a t e r gas and /o r p roduce r gas w h i c h can d r i v e v e h i c l e s o r b o a t s . indeed, i n i ndo r i es ia t h e r e a r e two agenc ies f o r t h e p r o m o t i o n o f wood powered eng ines , T h e r e f o r e , i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t o s u b s t i t u t e some i m p o r t e d l i q u i d f u e l s f o r wood i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r b u t o f r o u r s e t h i s i s dependent on a r e g u l a r s u p p l y o f wood b e i n g a v a i l a b l e i n t h e c o r r e c t l o c a l i t i e s a t t h e r i g h t t i m e .

Charcoa l has p o t e n t i a l use i n t h e s t e e l acd cement i n d u s t r i e s whereas fue lwood can be arid i s used i n many a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s where i t has a compara t i ve advantage o v e r o t h e r f u e l s . I t may a1 so be economica l i n remote a reas t o g e n e r a t e electricity e i t h e r u s i n g wood f i r e d b o i l e r s o r p r o d u c e r gas eng ines . S t a t i o n a r y p r o d u c e r gas u n i t s can a l s o be used t o s u p p l y sma l l i n d u s t r i e s e s p e c i a l l y where t h e r e i s waste b iomass such as t h e saw m i l l i n g and wood i n d u s t r i e s , maize and r i c e s h e l l i n g , g r i n d l n g (poshe) m i l l s , e t c . Thus biomass c o u l d a t l e a s t m a i n t a i n i t s impor tance i n t h e commerc ia l s e c t o r i f t h e r e i s an a c t i v e programme t o promote i t s use, b u t o f c o u r s e t h i s i s dependent on a gua ran teed s u p p l y o f f u e l 2nd t h i s i n t ~ r n means t h a t government s h o u l d encourage t h e g r o w i n g o f t r e e s f o r f u e l as a commerc ia l e n t e r p r i s e .

Coal

Coal has been f o u n d i n e x p l o i t a b l e q u a n t i t i e s i n t h e s o u t h o f t h e c o u n t r y , as we have men t i oned . Coal i s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r o i l i n many i n d u s t r i e s and l i k e wood i t can be used as a b o i l e r f u e l . I n Europe b e f o r e t h e d i s c o v e r y o f n a t u r a l gas, coa l was c o n v e r t e d t o town gas ( p r i n c i p a l l y c a r b o n monox ide) and used f o r househo ld and i n d u s t r i a l use, t h e gas b e i n g p i p e d t o i n d i v i d u a l houses and f a c t o r i e s . The chemica l i n d u s t r y used c o a l as a f e e d s t o c k b e f o r e p e t r o l e u m and b e f o r e c o a l t h e f e e d s t o c k was wood! However, l i k e any o t h e r f u e l , c o a l w i l l o n l y be s u c c e s s f u l i f i t i s a b l e t o compete w i t h a1 t e r n a t i v e ene rgy sou rces and t h e mos t l i k e l y c o n t r i b u t i o n i t can make i s i f i n d u s t r i e s and u s e r s a r e e s t a b l i s h e d n e a r where t h e c o a l i s mined, f o r t h e economic t r a n s p o r t d i s t a n c e o f c o a l , a c c o r d i n g t o one r u l e o f thumb e s t i m a t e , i s i n t h e r e g i o n o f 300 kms b y r a i l and 200 kms b y r o a d .

N a t u r a l Gas.

L i k e c o a l , n a t u r a l gas (mai n l y methane) has been d i s c o v e r e d i n e x p l o i t a b l e q u a n t i t i e s nea r t h e coas t ; much o f wha t has been s a i d a b o u t c o a l a p p l i e s t o methane gas. I f p ropane /bu tane were t o be f o u n d t h e s e gases c o u l d be l i q u i f i e d and t r a n s p o r t e d f o r use by i n d u s t r y and u r b a n househo lds . However, t h i s e n e r g y sou rce r e q u i r e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f c a p i t a l , e s p e c i a1 l y f o r e i g n exchange, t o deve lop .

Hvdro E l e c t r i c i t v .

A t p r e s e n t 60% o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s e l e c t r i c i t y i s p roduced by hydropower . The i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y i s some 250 megawatts, w h i c h i f worked a t f u l l c a p a c i t y c o u l d p roduce n e a r l y 7 .9 Pe ta J o u l e s o f ene rgy . Of c o u r s e t h e demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y i s n o t even t h r o u g h o u t t h e day, b u t o f f - p e a k demand c o u l d be found, f o r exampl e, t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f c a l c i u m c a r b i d e w h i c h y i e l d s a c e t y l e n e when combined w i t h w a t e r . T h i s c o u l d be used as a r u r a l l i g h t i n g sou rce . The e x i s t i n g i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y o f hydropower c o u l d g e n e r a t e more e l e c t r i c i t y i f t h e r i v e r sys tem o f t h e c o u n t r y was b e t t e r p r o t e c t e d . A t p r e s e n t d u r i n g t h e d r y season many o f t h e dams a r e w e l l be low t h e opt imum l e v e l and so t h e t u r b i n e s c a n n o t be used t o f u l l c a p a c i t y . I f e x p e n s i v e equ ipmen t i s i n s t a l l e d t h e n i t i s e s s e n t i a l t h a t t h e w a t e r ca t chmen t a r e a s a r e f u l l y p r o t e c t e d .

The medium t e r m p o t e n t i a l f o r h y d r o power i s o v e r f o u r t i m e s t h e i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . Append ix 3.36 l i s t s t h e p o t e n t i a l b y r i v e r and s i t e , an e s t i m a t e d 1026 MW. By f a r t h e l a r g e s t s i t e i s a t S t i g l e r ' s go rge - 600 MW; t h i s i s a mu1 t i - p u r p o s e s i t e f o r c o n t r o l 1 i n g t h e f l o o d w a t e r s i n t h e R u f i g i d e l t a . Such a dam wou ld open up a c o n s i d e r a b l e a r e a o f l a n d f o r i r r i g a t i o n .

However, hyd ro e l e c t r i c i t y i s e x t r e m e l y e x p e n s i v e i n t e rms o f c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t . A r e c e n t s t u d y i n Kenya e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e n e x t 140 MW h y d r o scheme a t Kiambere w o u l d c o s t US$ 370 m i l l i o n and s u p p l y l e s s t h a n 1% o f Kenya ' s e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s by t h e y e a r 2000. On t h e o t h e r hand an i n v e s t m e n t o f US$ 235 m i l l i o n i n v a r i o u s t r e e p l a n t i n g p r o j e c t s c o u l d s u p p l y a b o u t 35% o f Kenya ' s ene rgy r e q u i r e m e n t s b y t h e y e a r 2000 ( 4 ) . T h e r e f o r e new hyd ro c a p a c i t y s h o u l d o n l y be i n s t a l l e d when t h e r e i s s u f f i c i e n t demand. A1 so t h e p r e s e n t c a p a c i t y s h o u l d be used as f u l l y as p o s s i b l e .

P e t r o l eum P r o d u c t s .

P e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s a l t h o u g h t h e y o n l y accoun t f o r 8 p e r c e n t o f e n e r g y consumpt ion a r e l o o k e d on as t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t ene rgy source, m a i n l y because t h e y use up such a l a r g e amount o f f o r e i g n exchange b u t a l s o because t h e y have a h i g h ene rgy v a l u e p e r u n i t w e i g h t . A1 t e r n a t i v e f u e l s have been sugges ted f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s and t h e s e s h o u l d be s u b s t i t u t e d where e c o n o m i c a l l y f e a s i b l e . Aga in , t h e e l e c t r i c g r i d sys tem s h o u l d be ex tended and d i e s e l / o i l g e n e r a t i o n g r a d u a l l y phased o u t o f t h e l a r g e r towns.

C o n s e r v a t i o n .

An i m p o r t a n t p a r t o f an e n e r g y s t r a t e g y s h o u l d be c o n s e r v a t i o n and i m p r o v i n g e f f i c i e n c y . As men t i oned p r e v i o u s l y , imp roved wood fue l s t o v e s c o u l d save a c o n s i d e r a b l e q u a n t i t y o f energy , p a r t i c u l a r l y c h a r c o a l . A1 so, i f p1 a n t a t i o n s a r e grown f o r c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n more e f f i c i e n t k i l n s c o u l d be used, b u t i f wood i s used d i r e c t l y r a t h e r t h a n v i a c h a r c o a l , up t o 50% o f t h e e n e r g y c o u l d be saved p r o v i d e d e f f i c i e n t end use d e v i c e s a r e employed. T h i s e q u a l l y a p p l i e s t o h e a t i n g w a t e r w i t h e l e c t r i c i t y p roduced v i a d i e s e l g e n e r a t i o n ; i f t h e w a t e r was d i r e c t l y hea ted w i t h o i l t h e n up t o 60-70% o f t h e ene rgy c o u l d be saved. B e t t e r s t i l l may be more use o f s o l a r ene rgy f o r h e a t i n g w a t e r .

Sav ings c o u l d be made w i t h i n t h e t r a n s p o r t i n d u s t r y by p r o p e r ma in tenance o f v e h i c l e s and r o a d s . Large i n d u s t r i e s s h o u l d c o n s t a n t l y m o n i t o r t h e i r use o f ene rgy and d e v i s e ways o f s a v i n g i t , a f t e r a l l , t h e s a v i n g of ene rgy s h o u l d make i n d u s t r y more compe t i ti ve.

I f c o n s e r v a t i o n methods were e n t h u s i a s t i c a l l y pu rsued and i f s u b s t i t u t i o n o f i n d i g e n o u s ene rgy , p a r t i c u l a r l y renewab le energy , was unde r taken , t h e n t h e f u t u r e consumpt ion p a t t e r n c o u l d be r a d i c a l l y changed and Tanzan ia c o u l d be i n a b e t t e r p o s i t i o n t o f o l l o w a s u s t a i n e d deve lopment .

FUTURE CONSUMPTION PATTERNS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS p-----

The p r e s e n t consumpt ion p a t t e r n has been t a b u l a t e d and d e s c r i b e d as has t h e ene rgy s u p p l y s i t u a t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e biomass s u p p l y w h i c h government and t h e p e o p l e s h o u l d have most c o n t r o ! o f , f o r if managed p r o p e r l y , b iomass i s a renewable r e s o u r c e .

I n o r d e r t o have an i d e a o f t h e amount o f ene rgy t h a t may be r e q u i r e d i n t h e f u t u r e , f o r e c a s t s have t o be made. These f o r e c a s t s can be based on g e n e r a l pa rame te rs such as t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e and t h e i n c r e a s e i n w e a l t h , s t r a t i f i e d by r u r a l and u r b a n i n c r e a s e s . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e y c o u l d be based on t h e expec ted demand o f i n d i v i d u a l i n d u s t r i e s such as t e a and tobacco o r o f s e c t o r s , f o r exampl e t r a n s p o r t . Aga in , s p e c i f i c f u e l s c o u l d be examined and t h e i r demand f o r e c a s t e d , b u t t h i s may be d i f f i c u l t f o r f u e l s such as c o a l o r n a t u r a l g a s w h o s e consumpt ion i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t a t p r e s e n t b u t i s e x p e c t e d t o become s i g n i f i c a n t b y t h e end o f t h e p e r i o d . A l l t h e above techn iques have been used when mak ing f o r e c a s t s f o r Tanzan ia and one method used t o check t h z p r e d i c t i o n s o f a n o t h e r . The f o r e c a s t p e r i o d chosen, 20 y e a r s , i s a r e l a t i v e l y l o n g one b u t i s necessa ry f o r p1 a n n i n g such a c t i v i t i e s as f o r e s t r y and t r e e p1 a n t i n g , hyd ro and o i l r e f i n e r y deve l oprnent.

F o r e c a s t Of Energy Consumption 198C-2000.

T a b l e 3 . 9 t a b u l a -t e s t h e 1980 e s t i m a t e d consumpt ion o f ene rgy b y s e c t o r i n f i v e y e a r i n t e r v a l s . I t a l s o e s t i m a t e s t h e p o p ~ l a t i o n and w e a l t h f o r t hese p e r i o d s . I t mus t be s t r e s s e d t h a t t h e s e f o r e c a s t s g i v e an o r d e r o f magn i tude r a t h e r t h a n an a c c u r a t e e s t i m a t i o n , t h e y a r e a l s o dependent on t h e p r e c i s i o n o f t h e 1980 mean consurr lpt ion e s t i m a t i o n and t h e f o r e c a s t e d p o p u l a t i o n and g r o s s domes t i c p r o d u c t i n c r e a s e s . I f p o p u l a t i o n and GDP do n o t grow as p r e d i c t e d t h e n t h e f o r e c a s t s w i l l have t o be a d j u s t e d o r t h e t i rne p e r i o d changed t o t h e p o i n t w'iere p o p u l a t i o n and GDP do ma tch t h e p r e d i c t e d i n c r e a s e s .

The a n t i c i p a t e d p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e i s 3 . 4 % p e r y e a r and t h a t o f p e r c a p i t a w e a l t h 1% p e r y e a r . T h e r e f o r e i t wou ld be expec ted t h a t e n e r g y consumpt ion w o u l d i n c r e a s e a t more than 3 .4% p e r y e a r , and y e t t h e f o r e c a s t e d i n c r e a s e i s o n l y 2 . 4 % p e r y e a r . However, wha t t h e t a b l e does n o t show i s t h e amount o f e f f e c t i v e e n e r g y a v a i l a b l e f o r consumpt ion and t h i s does i n c r e a s e a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 4 . 4 % p e r y e a r f o r i t i s p r e d i c t e d t h a t t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f end-use d e v i c e s w i l l i n c r e a s e b y an o v e r a l l 20% b y t h e y e a r 2000.

Between l965 and 1 9 7 7 t h e p e r c a p i t a income e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r so c a l l e d commercial e n e r g y i n Tanzan ia was e s t i m a t e d t o be I . 1. T h a t i s , f o r a 1% i n c r e a s e i r p e r c a p i t a w e a l t h t h e r e

TABLE 3.9

Tanzan ia 1980-2000: P r e s e n t Consumpt ion O f Ene rgy W i t h F o r e c a s t s To The Year 2000 By S e c t o r .

U n i t s : PJ Excep t Where S t a t e d .

% I n c r e a s e p e r 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 80/2000

i l a t i o n ( m i l l ) 18.52 21.89 25.87 30.58 36.14 3.4 i n ( m i l l ) 2.22 3.31 4.93 7.34 10.94 8.3 11 ( m i l l ) 16.30 18.58 20.94 23.24 25.20 2.2

( U S $ m i l l ) (l) 4625 5736 7114 8823 10943 4.4

p e r c a p u t (US$) 250 262 275 289 303 1.0

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T o t a l A1 l Use 490.7(~'571.4 647.7 716.9 784.2 2.4

A t c o n s t a n t 1980 v a l u e s . P r i m a r y use i n c l u d e s wood used f o r c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n , f u e l used t o g e n e r a t e e l e c t r i c i t y and o i l used i n t h e r e f ~ n e r y . T h i s t o t a l has been d e r i v e d f r o m Appendix 1 and e q u a l s 486.59 PJ ( t o t a l r e q u i r e m e n t s ) p l u s m i l l h a r v e s t 5.70 PJ minus t h e d i f f e r e n c e between g e n e r a t e d e l e c t r i c i t y f r o m hyd ro power and t h e i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e d h y d r o power s u p p l y (3.34 - 1.74 = 1.60 PJ: 486.59 t 5.70 - 1.60 = 490.69 P ? ) , f o r b y c o n v e r t i o n o n l y t h e h y d r o power used t o g e n e r a t e electricity i s coun ted .

was a 1.1% i n c r e a s e i n commercial e n e r g y consumpt ion. However between 1974 and 1977, t h e t i m e o f t h e mass i ve i n c r e a s e i n o i l p r i c e s , t h e income e l a s t i c i t y o f demand f o r commerc ia l ene rgy was minus 1.1. I n o t h e r words t h e r e l a t i v e i n c r e a s e i n o i l p r i c e s compared t o o t h e r p r o d u c t s f o r c e d down consumpt ion w h i c h i n t u r n s t i m u l a t e d e f f i c i e n c y i n c r e a s e s . I f t h i s l a t t e r income e l a s t i c i t y o f demand o f minus 1.1 i s used f o r macro f o r e c a s t i n g ( 5 ) f o r a l l energy , t h e n t h e e s t i m a t e d consumpt ion b y t h e y e a r 2000 i s 671 PJ f o r t h e end use s e c t o r and 768 PJ i n t o t a l . T h i s compares w i t h t h e f i g u r e s i n T a b l e 3 . 9 o f 658 PJ and 784 PJ r e s p e c t i v e l y w h i c h a r e w i t h i n 2% o f t h e macro f o r e c a s t s .

As i s t o be e x p e c t e d t h e consumpt ion o f t h e v a r i o u s s e c t o r s grows a t d i f f e r i n g r a t e s , t h e u r b a n r e g i s t e r i n g t h e l a r g e s t and t h e r u r a l t h e s m a l l e s t i n c r e a s e , w h i c h r e f l e c t s t h e h i g h r a t e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n . The f o r e c a s t e d i n c r e a s e i n p r i m a r y consumpt ion (2 .4% p e r y e a r ) i s a l s o g r e a t e r t h a n t h e o v e r a l l end use i n c r e a s e ( 2 . 2 % ) because consumpt ion o f c h a r c o a l i s e x p e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e t h r e e f o l d (5 .5%) and t h i s i s more w a s t e f u l o f wood e n e r g y t h a n i f t h e wood was b u r n t d i r e c t l y , even a l l o w i n g f o r t h e i n c r e a s e d e f f i c i e n c y o f c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n .

F o r e c a s t e d Consumotion Bv Enerav Source.

What i s t h e breakdown o f ene rgy consumpt ion b y power source? Append ix 3 . 7 g i v e s t h e d e t a i l e d e s t i m a t e o f consumpt ion i n t h e y e a r 2000 and Append ix 3 . 8 g i v e s t h e e s t i m a t e d s a v i n g o f ene rgy f o r t h e same t i m e p e r i o d . Tab le 3 .10 i s a summary o f t h e d e t a i l e d f o r e c a s t s .

I f Appendices 3 .1 and 3 .7 and t a b l e s 3 .2 and 3.10 a r e compared, i t w i l l be seen t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e d o v e r a l l a b s o l u t e i n c r e a s e o f ene rgy between 1980 and 2000 ranges f r o m 213 PJ f o r f ue lwood , t h r o u g h 45 PJ f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s t o 4 PJ f o r h y d r o power, b u t o f c o u r s e i n r e l a t i v e te rms fue lwood consumpt ion i n c r e a s e s t h e l e a s t ( 1 . 5 t i m e s ) and n a t u r a l gas t h e mos t ( a n i n f i n i t e i n c r e a s e ) . D e s p i t e t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f o t h e r f u e l s f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , t h e i r consumpt ion i s e s t i m a t e d t o n e a r l y doub le between 1980 and 2000 and more t h a n doub le i f ene rgy s a v i n g measures a r e n o t v i g o r o u s l y pu rsued .

I t w i l l be obse rved t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e d s a v i n g o f ene rgy i s some 246 PJ, 163 P2 i n t h e end s e c t o r s and 83 PJ i n t h e p r i m a r y use s e c t o r s .

I m o l i c a t i o n s O f F o r e c a s t e d C o n s u m ~ t i o n .

What i m p l i c a t i o n s do t h e f o r e c a s t e d consumpt ion have f o r Tanzan ia? The o v e r a l l demand i s e s t i m a t e d t o i n c r e a s e b y 294 PJ o r 60% between 1980 and 2000 and, t h e r e f o r e , t h i s i n c r e a s e w i l l have t o be p l a n n e d f o r . A t t h e same t ime , f o o d p r o d u c t i o n w i l l have t o n e a r l y doub le and t h e r e f o r e t h e r e may be some c o n f l i c t o f i n t e r e s t between expand ing f o o d p r o d u c t i o n and b iomass ene rgy p r o d u c t i o n . B u t i f good a g r o f o r e s t r y schemes a r e i n t r o d u c e d t h i s c o n f l i c t s h o u l d be m i n i m i z e d .

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I n o r d e r t o p l a n f o r o v e r a l l demand, t h e i n d i v i d u a l energy sou rce s h o u l d be examined t o work o u t a common s t r a t e g y .

A. Pe t ro leum P r o d u c t s , Appendix 3 . 9 g i v e s a d e t a i l e d breakdown o f t h e l i k e l y consumpt ion f o r v a r i o u s p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s by t h e y e a r 2000 t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e p o s s i b l e s u p p l y sou rce and these a r e summarized i n T a b l e 3 .11. By t h e y e a r 2000, p r o v i d e d t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f o t h e r f u e l s f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i s as a n t i c i p a t e d , t h e t o t a l demand f o r p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s w i l l be some 7 1 oJ ( 1 . 5 7 m i l l i o n t o n n e s ) ( 6 ) . The u n m o d i f i e d T i p e r r e f i n e r y w i i l on1 y be a b l e t o s u p p l y some 43% o f t h e demand. A new 3000 tonne p e r day r e f i n e r y w i t h a c r a c k i n g p l a n t may be a b l e t o match t h e u n f u l f i l l e d demand, p r o d u c t f o r p r o d u c t , w i t h a s l i g h t s u r p l u s . However, a s t u d y s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n t o see if i t i s w o r t h b u i l d i n g a new r e f i n e r y o r i m p o r t i n g t h e f i n i s h e d p r o d u c t s . The above c a l c u l a t i o n s do n o t t a k e i n t o accoun t t h e use o f c rude o i l f o r petro-chemical/fertilizer i n d u s t r i e s and t h e s e may have t o be c o n s i d e r e d . A l s o i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t f o l l o w i n g t h e gas d i s c o v e r i e s some c r u d e may be s u p p l i e d f r o m i n t e r n a l sou rces .

B. N a t u r a l Gas. I t i s assumed t h a t n a t u r a l gas w i l l s u p p l y a b o u t 7 2 PJ o f T a n z a n i a ' s ene rgy r e q u i r e m e n t s b y t h e y e a r 2000, e x c l u d i n g p o s s i b l e use i n t h e chemica l / f e r t i l i z e r i n d u s t r i e s . T h i s amounts t o some 600 m i l l i o n c u b i g m e t r e s o f gas p e r y e a r , w e l l above t h e p roposed o u t p u t o f 365 m p e r y e a r f r o m t h e Songo Songo f i e 1 d.

However, new f i n d s c o u l d more t h a n meet t h e d i f f e r e n c e , o t h e r w i s e t h e Songo Songo p r o d u c t i o n c o u l d be i n c r e a s e d . I t i s a l s o hoped t h a t t h e r e w i l l be much more propane and bu tane i n t h e new f i n d s w h i c h w i l l make t h e n a t u r a l gas a more v e r s a t i l e f u e l . I ndeed t h e s e two gases a r e now b e i n g used as a s u b s t i t u t e f o r p e t r o l i n c a r e n g i n e s .

C . E l e c t r i c i t y . The demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y b y t h e y e a r 2000 i s e s t i m a t e d t o be some 10.6 compared t o t h e p r e s e n t consumpt ion o f 2 .3 PJ, g e t t i n g on f o r a f i v e f o l d i n c r e a s e . Append ix 3 .10 g i v e s t h e p o s s i b l e e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n p a t t e r n w h i c h i n summary i s 787 MW" composed o f :

* The l a t e s t Tanesco ' s f o r e c a s t f o r t h e y e a r 2000 i s 589 MW, some 298 MW l e s s t h a n t h e above f o r e c a s t . The f o r e c a s t i n t h i s r e p o r t i s based on an i n c r e a s e i n p e r c a p i t a w e a l t h o f 1% p e r y e a r . Tanesco ' s f o r e c a s t b y i m p l i c a t i o n assumes t h a t i n c r e a s e i n d e m a ~ d w i l l b a r e l y keep pace w i t h t h e r a t e o f u r b a n i s a t i o n . I f Tanesco ' s f o r e c a s t i s c o r r e c t , t h e n i n d i g e n o u s hydropower c o u i d meet app rox ima te1 y 70% o f consumpt ion, as opposed t o 50% (Append ix 3 . 2 0 ) . A l s o Uganda and Tanzan ia have come t o an agreement t o e x t e n d t h e Uganda g r i d sys tem t o West Lake (Bukoba) , t h e r e f o r e b y 2000, Bukoba c o d l d be s u p p l i e d w i t h i m p o r t e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y . T h i s was n o t t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t i n t h i s r e p o r t .

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Smal l Hydro 25 MW: Large Hydro 380 MW: Coal 48 MW: N a t u r a l Gas 100 MW: Wood 50 MW: O i l 70 MW: D i e s e l 32 MW: O the r p o s s i b l y h y d r o and /o r o i l 82 MW:

More d e t a ~ l e d f o r e c a s t s o f s u p p l y and demand have been unde r taken f o r t h e Tanzan ian government by Ac res I n t e r n a t i o n a l , a Canadian c o n s u l t i n g f i r m , and t h i s document s h o u l d be r e a d . B u t as t h e above d i f f e r e n t f u e l t y p e s sugges t , a move away f r o m o i l t o i n d i g e n o u s f u e l i s i n d i c a t e d . However, economic s t u d i e s s h o u l d be c a r r i e d o u t t o j u s t i f y t h e d i f f e r e n t f u e l sou rces , i n p a r t i c u l a r hydropower where t h e p o t e n t i a l i s e s t i m a t e d t o be o v e r 1250 MW (App. 3 .3B) b u t where o n l y 380 MW t o 430 MW i s suggested by t h e y e a r 2000.

D. Coa l . Coal consumpt ion, an e s t i m a t e d 10.6 PJ o r 480,000 t ( e n e r g y a l u e 2 2 PJ / tonne assumed) i s somewhat h i g h e r than t h e p roposed p r o d u c t i o n o f 300,000 tonnes p e r yea r , b u t o f cou rse p r o d u c t i o n c o u l d be i n c r e a s e d t o meet demand, f o r t h e e s t i m a t e d r e s e r v e s a r e 300 m i l l i o n t onnes . I t w i l l be n o t i c e d t h a t t h e suggested e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i s 48 MW, doub le t h e p roposed scheme. A l s o no accoun t has been t a k e n o f c o a l f o r use as a chemica l f e e d s t o c k .

E. Ca l c i um Carb ide . T h i s i s a kerosene s u b s t i t u t e and i s meant t o s u p p l y a l i g h t sou rce t o t h e r u r a l a reas . I t ' s p r o d u c t i o n i s dependent on a cheap sou rce o f e l e c t r i c i t y ( o f f peak) b u t a f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d y needs t o be u n d e r t a k e n t o see i f p r o d u c t i o n i s economica l and i f t h e p r o d u c t i s a c c e p t a b l e t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n .

F. A g r i c u l t u r a l Res idues . Consumption o f a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e 8 i s a n t i c i p a t e d t o i n c r e a s e b y 11.5 PJ t o r e a c h 20 .8 PJ b y t h e y e a r 2000. T h i s i n c r e a s e c o u l d be accommodated b y t h e b e t t e r use o f c r o p was tes such as bagasse, c o f f e e , r i c e and ma ize husks, s i s a l r e s i d u e , c o t t o n p l a n t s , and animal dung.

G. Woodfuel (Fue lwood and Charcoa l ) . Woodfuel even by t h e y e a r 2000 w i l l r ema in b y f a r t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t commercial and non- commerc ia i f u e l , an e s t i m a t e d 83% o f consumpt ion. Due r e c o g n i t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h i s f a c t b y f u r t h e r i n c r e a s i n g i t s s t a t u s w i t h i n t h e F o r e s t r y D i v i s i o n o f t h e M i n i s t r y o f N a t u r a l Resources and by i n c l u d i n g i t as a p r i m e s e c t o r i n t h e M i n i s t r y o f Water, M i n e r a l s and Energy. The e s t i m a t e d i n c r e a s e i n consumpt ion o f some 213 PJ i s n e a r l y t w i c e t h e consumpt ion o f a l l o t h e r f u e l s combined. T h i s s h o u l d be i n d i c a t i v e o f i t s

i m p o r t a n c e . A l r e a d y h a l f t h e r e g i o n s o f Tanzan ia a r e e a t i n g i n t o t h e i r t r e e c a p i t a l as a r e some areas o f a l l r e g i o n s . T h e r e f o r e , t r e e p l a n t i n g programmes w i l l have t o be d e v i s e d f o r e v e r y r e g i o n . The a n t i c i p a t e d demand b y t h e y e a r 2000 i s some 41 m i l l i o n tonnes o f a i r d r y wood o f w h i c h a b o u t h a l f c o u l d be s u p p l i e d f r o m e x i s t i n g s t o c k s on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s under p r e s e n t management p r a c t i c e s . T h e r e f o r e a n o t h e r 20 m i l l i o n tonnes may have t o come f r o m improved management o f e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s and woodlands and new p l a n t i n g 8 i n t h e f o r m o f f a r m t r e e s , v i l l a g e wood1 o t s and p1 a n t a t i o n s . A1 so mu1 t i p u r p o s e t r e e s s h o u l d be used t h a t w i l l f i x n i t r o g e n , g i v e food, f o d d e r and improve t h e m i c r o c l i m a t e b e s i d e s p r o v i d i n g wood. The e x a c t amount o f wood t h a t c o u l d be s u p p l i e d t o each area, d i s t r i c t , o r r e g i o n mus t be a s c e r t a i n e d t h r o u g h i n v e n t o r i e s and su rveys ; o n l y t h e n can an e s t i m a t e o f each a r e a ' s new p l a n t i n g be made. However, i n a p? ann ing e x e r c i s e u n d e r t a k e n i n Kenya, t h e e q u i v a l e n t o f 1 . 4 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s o f new p l a n t i n g 8 o r i n t e n s i v e management o f e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s were assessed t o s u p p l y a b o u t 2 5 m i l l i o n tonnes on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s ( 1 8 m i l l . tonnes by 20001, and g i v e employment t o n e a r l y 100,000 peop le ( 7 ) .

CONCLUSIONS

Woodfue? i s b y f a r t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t sou rce o f e n e r g y i n Tanzan ia f o r i t p r e s e n t l y meets o v e r n i n e t y p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s r e q u i r e m e n t s . Even b y t h e y e a r 2000 i t may s t i l l s u p p l y o v e r 80% o f i t s needs. Woodfuel w h i l e b e i n g o f paramount i m p o r t a n c e i n t h e s u b s i s t e n c e s e c t o r a l s o p r o v i d e s t h e b u l k o f t h e commerc ia l e n e r g y . However, government has g i v e n l i t t l e a t t e n t i o n t o p l a n f o r i t s c o n t i n u o u s s u p p l y and now i n many a reas o f t h e c o u n t r y , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e w i t h h i g h p o p u l a t i o n c o n c e n t r a t i o n s , wood i s becoming s c a r c e . I n consequence t r e e c a p i t a l i s b e i n g s a c r i f i c e d . N e v e r t h e l e s s t h e s u p p l y o f wood ene rgy , i f p r o p e r l y p1 anned and managed c o u l d n o t o n l y meet c u r r e n t demand l e v e l s on a s u s t a i n e d b a s i s , b u t p r o v i d e a s t e a d i l y i n c r e a s i n g supp? y .

Wood, a p a r t f r o m b e i n g a t r a d i t i o n a l f ue l , can be used i n t h e modern s e c t o r as a b o i l e r f u e l o r i n e i t h e r gaseous o r l i q u i d forms, t o d r i v e s t a t i o n a r y o r mov ing eng ines , t h u s i t c o u l d c o n t i n u e t o p1 ay an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e economic deve lopment o f t h e c o u n t r y . I t i s a l s o a r e l a t i v e l y cheap f u e l t o grow, e s p e c i a l l y i n t e r n s o f t h e sma l l amount o f f o r e i g n exchange r e q u i r e d t o p roduce and use i t and t h e g r o w i n g p r o v i d e s a c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f employment b o t h s k i ! l e d and u n s k i l l e d . A t t h e same t i m e i f t r e e s were p l a n t e d on fa rms or nea r v i l l a g e s t h e y c o u l d save t h e f a r m e r ' s f a m i l y , i n p a r t i c u l a r h i s w i f e and c h i l d r e n , many h o u r s o f l a b o u r t h a t a r e now s p e n t f o r a g i n g f o r f ue lwood . T h i s i n t u r n w o u j d make more t i m e a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e

i m p o r t a n t t a s k o f f o o d p r o d u c t i o n . A l s o i f n i t r o g e n f i x i n g t r e e s a r e grown, t h e y c o u l d be used as a f o d d e r c r o p a n d l o r a f e r t i l i z e r as w e l l , so t h e c o u n t r y c o u l d save on b o t h an imal f e e d and f e r t i l i z e r .

The i m p o r t a n c e o f t r e e s f o r f u e l i s r e c o g n i z e d by t h e F o r e s t r y D i v i s i o n o f t h e M i n i s t r y o f N a t u r a l Resources and Tou r i sm b u t government, e s p e c i a l l y t h e M i n i s t r y o f Water, M i n e r a l s and Energy, s h o u l d g i v e t o p p r i o r i t y t o t h i s f u e l . I n v e n t o r i e s and s u r v e y s a r e needed t o p l a n b o t h s u p p l y and demand b y v i l l a g e s , towns, d i s t r i c t s , r e g i o n s and i n d u s t r i e s . Farmers s h o u l d be encouraged t o grow t r e e s on t h e i r own shambas ( f a r m s ) and h e l p w i t h t h e v i l l a g e w o o d l o t s . The e x i s t i n g f o r e s t s and woodlands s h o u l d be managed i n o r d e r t o i n c r e a s e t h e y i e l d o f b iomass and a r e a s m u s t be s e t a s i d e f o r f u e l w o o d p l a n t a t i o n s t o meet t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f towns and i n d u s t r y .

T h i s i s n o t t o say t h a t t h e o t h e r f u e l s , e s p e c i a l l y i n d i g e n o u s f u e l s o f c o a l , hydropower and n a t u r a l gas s h o u l d be n e g l e c t e d , b u t r a t h e r wood and a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s i d u e s s h o u l d be g i v e n a t l e a s t t h e same t r e a t m e n t as t h e s e f u e l s , and n o t t a k e n f o r g r a n t e d . I t m u s t be r e a l i s e d t h a t l i k e most f u e l s , wood can be exhaus ted i f n o t p r o p e r l y c a r e d f o r . A c o u n t r y l i k e Tanzan ia t h a t has had an ample s u p p l y o f wood s h o u l d n o t , i n d e e d must n o t a l l o w i t t o become a f i n i t e r e s o u r c e .

NOTES

Openshaw, K. 1982. An I n v e n t o r y Of Biomass I n Kenya. B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e , S tockho lm.

3. Lundgren B. 1975. Land Use I n Kenya and Tanzan ia , Royal Col l ege o f F o r e s t r y , Stockholm, Sweden.

4. Openshaw, K. 1982 Costs and B e n e f i t s Of The Proposed Tree P1 a n t i n g Programme F o r S a t i s f y i n g Kenya 's Wood Energy Requ i rements , B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e , S tockho lm, Sweden.

5 . A macro f o r e c a s t i s where f o r e c a s t s a r e made o f t o t a l consumpt ion w i t h o u t p a y i n g a t t e n t i o n t o i n d i v i d u a l sec t o r consumpt ion.

6. T h i s e s t i m a t e i s somewhat be low t h e f i g u r e o f t h e Tanzan ian P e t r o l e u m Development C o r p o r a t i o n f o r e c a s t , f o r t h e i r 1990 e s t i m a t e d consumpt ion i s 1 .5 m i l l i o n t onnes . T h e r e f o r e a more d e t a i l e d f o r e c a s t needs t o be u n d e r t a k e n t o see w h i c h f i g u r e i s more a p p r o p r i a t e . I f TPDC's f i g u r e i s c o r r e c t t h e n t h e p roposed new r e f i n e r y w i l l have t o be f i n i s h e d i n t h e e a r l y 1 9 9 0 ' s n o t t h e l a t e 1 9 9 0 ' s .

7. Openshaw, K. 1982. Costs and B e n e f i t s O f Proposed Tree P l a n t i n g Programme I n Kenya, B e i j e r I n s t i t u t e , S tockho lm, Sweden.

APPENDIX 3 . 2

T a n z a n l a 1980. D e t a i l e d F i n a l Consumpt ion By S e c t o r , End-Use And Energy Source . ( U n i t s : Pe ta J o u l e s )

Type Modern T r a d i t i o n a l

O r i g i n I m p o r t e d M a i n l y I n d l g . I n d i g e n o u s

.or Energy Source

In Househo ld

P e t r o l e u m Prd . E l e c t r . Coal

1 79 0 78 0 . 0 0

Fue lwoud Charcoa l Res idues T o t a l ( X )

C o o k i n g L i g h t i n g O t h e r

7.09 6 8h 0 . 0 0 1 4 . 4 2 0 . 0 0 0 00 0 00 1 .22 ( 4 ) 2 . 2 5 1 .20 0 0 0 4 03 ( i )

1 Househo ld

C o o k ~ n g O t h e r

c u l t u r e ( l )

La rge Smal l

L a r g e Urban I n f o r m a l R u r a l C o t t a g e Construction

i c e ( 2 )

Pub1 i c P r l v a t e

Road-Pub1 i c R o a d- P r i v a t e R a i l - Passenger R a 1 1 - F r e i g h t AI r Water

1 Consumpt ion

e n t a g e ( 7 ) ( 1 ) ( 0 ) ( 8 5 ) ( 4 ) ( 2 ) ( 1 0 0 )

ce ESRG ( A d a p t e d )

T h i s e x c l u d e s a n i m a t e power b o t h human and d o m e s t i c a n i m a l s From a s u r v e y u n d e r t a k e n i n Somal ia i n 1982 w h e r e t h e a n i m a t e e n e r g y was e s t i m a t e d a t 3 . 2 PJ f o r a p o p u l a t i o n o f 5 . 1 m i l l i o n a f l g u r e o f a b a u r 12 PJ i s e s t ~ n a t e d f o r T a n z a n i a The s e r v i c e s e c t o r ~ n c l u d e s s c h o o l s , h o s p i t a l s , m i s s ~ o n s , r e s t a u r a n t s , f o o d shops, c a n t e e n s e t c .

APPENDIX 3.3A

Tanzania 1980: E s t i m a t e d Power Source, Generated Energy, D i s t r i b u t i o n Losses And Sa les Of E l e c t r i c i t y . ( U n i t s PJ)

Power E l e c t r i c i t y D i s t r i b u t i o n Sa les )ewer Source s u p p l y Generated Losses ( M i l l i o n Kwhr)

i y d r o ( 1 ) 3 .34 1 .74 0 .34 1 .40 (38.8) l i e s e l / O i l ( 2 ) 1 . 2 0 0.96 0 .04 0.92 (25 .6 )

ro ta1 4 .54 2.70 0 .38 2.32 (64 .4 )

;ource: ESRG (Adapted)

11) C u r r e n t Hydro C a p a c i t y

R i v e r Dam -

Pangani Moshi I t Nyumba y a Mungu I, Ha1 e I t Pangani f a 1 l s L i t t l e Ruaha R i v e r Tosamaganga ( I r i n g a ) Grea t " " K i d a t u Nzovwe Mbeya Var ious Smal l S c a l e ( 1 7 )

C a p a c i t y Max. P o t e n t i a1

MW - Outpu t PJ/Yr

TOTAL 250.10 7.89

2 ) C u r r e n t D i e s e l / O i l C a p a c i t y

Town MW -

K u r a s i n i /Ubungu D. S.M. Arusha Dodoma Mbeya Mtwara Mwanza Tabora Var ious Smal l Sca le ( 1 4 )

C a p a c i t y Maximum P o t e n t i a1

Ou tpu t PJ/Yr

TOTAL 102.95 3.26

3 t e : MW = Megawatt = l M i l l i o n Wat ts

Kwhr = K i l o w a t t Hour = 1 Thousand Wat t Hours.

1 Tera Wat t Hours (10" Wat t Hours) = 3 .6 Pe ta J o u l e s ( 1 0 ' ~ J o u l e s ) .

APPENDIX 3.3B

Tanzania : E s t i m a t e d Medium Term E l e c t r i c a l P o t e n t i a l From Ind igenous Power Sources.

Hydro P o t e n t i a1 Capaci t y Maximum P o t e n t i a1

i v e r Dam - MW - Outpu t PJ/Yr

uaha R i v e r S t i g l e r ' S Gorge 600 18.92 ompl ex K i ngenenas 100 3.15

M t e r a 80 2.52 Between M t e r a & K i d a t u ( 4 s i t e s ) 200 6.31

a r i o u s Smal l Sca le 3 1 s i t e s 46 1.45

o t a l Hydro P o t e n t i a1 1026 32.35

. Coal F i r e d

i t e

ongwe/Kiwi ra ( 1 s t Phase) 24 0.76

o t a l P o t e n t i a l 1050 33.11

o t e : The l o n g te rm p o t e n t i a l i s c o n s i d e r a b l y g r e a t e r ; w i t h t h e l o n g te rm p o t e n t i a l f o r S t i e g l e r ' s Gorge exceed ing t h e medium te rm p o t e n t i a l f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a whole .

Tanzania 1980 E s n m a t e d Coniumpt ion Of Woodfuel And A g r i c u l t u r a l - Residue By End-User

(Uni t ; m i l l i o n tonnes roundwood e q u i v a l e n t )

P g r i c u l t u r a l Fuel Fuelwood Charcoal ( l ' ( g ) bloodfuel (4) Residue ( 2 ) T c t a l ( 8 )

Household 16 54 3 15 19 69 ( 7 2 ) 0 48 20 17 ( 7 1 )

Urban Household. 0 58 - 2 09 Cooking 0 44 1 78 Other 0 14 0 31

Rura l Household 15 96 1 06 C o o k ~ n g 12 30 0 70 O the r 3 62 0 36

A g r i c u l t u r e 0 8% 0 ea ( 3 ) 0 ee ( 3 )

La rgs Tobacco 0 12 0 12 0 1% Srnal l Tobacco 0 76 0 76 0 76

I n d u s t r y 3 32 1 61 5 l 3 ( 1 8 ) 0 10 5 23 (19:

0 08 Bak ing 0 02 Sugar 0 0: Saw M i l l i ng 0 02 Tea 0 02 W a t t l e 0 01

Urban I n f o r m a l 0 04 0 23 0 27 - Baking 0 0 1

- 0 04

B l a c k s m i t h 0 00 0 23 0 23

Ruvai Co t tage 3 3a : 38 3 72 - - Baking 0 02

- 0 02

Blacksmi t r 0 00 l 3e 1 38 Brewing j 3 ) 2 94 2 94 Ceramics 0 02 0 02 F i s h / P r o c e s s i n g 0 09 0 09 Honev / Indus t r v 0 l 5 0 15 # l S 0 12 0 12 0 12

C o n s t r u c t i o n P-

0 06 - 0 06 - 0 06 B r i c k Bu rn ing 0 06 0 05 0 06

Serv I ce 1 80 0 11 i'ii :7) 1 31 ( 7 )

TOTAL 22 7 4 4 87 2; 61 :100) 0 58 26 19

Source Openshaw, K, :972 Wood i ~ n s u m p t i o n Survey and Timber Trends Study FAO, Rome (adap ted )

1 .-.p Charcoal Consump i lu i - 2 &r~ cu l t ~ ~ r a l Residue

M1 I 1 r charcc21 Urban n r ~ u i e h u l d 0 24 Rurd l h o u i e h n i d 0 1% l n d u s r i y 0 :9 S e r i ~ c e s e c t o r i 02

Erewlng includes h o t n l e g a l and i l l e g a l ;rcd,ctTun uf a l c c n n l sucn as Long", ?,?mbe, Mbege, Kangera, Changa, Faya and cove rs u rban a i w e l l a; r u r a l a r e a i

M i i c e l l aneous i n c l u d e s FM ( N i l 1 :! Cassaua p r u c e s s ; n g / r i c r p a r n n i l ~ n g e t c 0 06 Coffee and ground n u t r o a s t i n g 0 02 M i l k p r a c e s s i l g 0 01 Lime and s a l t j r o d u c t i ~ ~ n 0 03

APPENDIX 3.48

T a n z a n i a 1980: E s t i m a t e d Consumpt ion Of Biomass By Use A c t i v i t y ( U n i t s M i l l i o n Tonnes Roundwood E q u i v a l e n t )

v i t y Energy Source FW C H WF AR T o t a l %

Urban Househo ld 0.44 1.78 2.22 2.22 R u r a l Househo ld 12.34 0.70 13.04 0.48 14.52 B a k i n g 0.08 0.08 0.09 S e r v i c e S e c t o r 1.80 0.11 0.11 0.11

e h o l d - O t h e r Used (l) 3.76 0.67 4.43 0.00 4.43 (16)

1 P r o c e s s i n g 1.27 0.00 1.27 0.10 1.37 ( 5 )

Cassava/Ri ce 0.06 C o f f e e / G r o u n d n u t s 0.02 F i s h 0.09 HoneylWax 0.15 Y i l k P r o c e s s i n g 0.01 S a n i l l i n g 0.02 Sugar 0.01 Tea 0.02 Tobacco 0.88 d a t t l e / T a n n i a 0.01

I n d u s t r i e s 0.11 1.61 1.72 0.00 1.72 (6)

31 acksmi t h / M e t a l 0.00 1.61 1.61 W i c k & Ceramics 0.08 0.08 _ime & S a l t 0.03 0.03

:e: I B I D .

Househo ld o t h e r use i n c l u d e s b o l l i n g w a t e r f o r wash ing , h e a t i n g , l i g h t i n g , p r o t e c t i o n , i r o n i n g , c r o p p r e s e r v a t i o n , and some c o t t a g e i n d u s t r i e s . B r e w i n g does n o t i n c l u d e t h e m a n u f a c t u r e d p r o d u c t s such as pombe, b e e r , k o n y a g i , g i n , e t c and w i n e ; b u t 1 % i n c l u d e s d i s t i l l e d p r o d u c t s and f e r m e n t e d p r o d u c t s b o t h l e g a l and i l l e g a l .

issumed e n e r g y v a l u e s a r e as f o l l o w s :

Wood 16.0 GJ (log) p e r tonne 15% m o ~ s t u r e c o n t e n t Charcoa l 33.1 GJ p e r t o n n e - 15% m o i s t u r e c o n t e n t . Crop r e s t d u e s 13.9 GJ p e r t o n n e - 15% m o i s t u r e c o n t e n t . Dung 12.8 GJ p e r tonne - 15% m o i s t u r e c o n t e n t .

h a r c o a l i t i s assumed t h a t 12 m3 o r 8.57 tonnes wood r e q u i r e d t o p roduce 1. t o n n e o f c h a r c o a l food i t i s assumed t h a t 1.4 m' wood = 1 tonne .

Fuelwood; CH = Charcoa l ; WF = Woodfuel (FWtCH) AR = A g r i c u l t u r a l Res idues

APPWIX 3.5

Tanzania 1980. Veqetation Cover By PPgim & K C k t a r e s

Vegetation Type Agriculture Plantation Tropical Wadland !qion Alpire (1) Forestry High Forests Mcrrtc I n t e d i a t e Bushland Savanna Caassland %m Totdl Village W l o t !

Bra 2M 158 7M 913 2W

llgda 3iha k ~ a abara ,ingida b h d ringa brogom nast indi b a r a LNUm anzi bar

otal

Includes village wmdlots, see end colurr

mrces. Lundgren, B, 1975 Ed. land use i n Kenya and Tanzania Royal College o f Forestry Stockholm, 4*& Zeral Araya 1981. Village Forestry i n Tanzania Forestry Division Ministry o f Natural Resources and Tourism Car-es-Salam, Tanzania

gricul W a l areas taken f r m Table 11 P 95 of the Land use repsrt These are provisional estimates and have probably irweased since 1973 h n tk table orpiled. O J ~ of tk total of 4 6 mi l l ion k t a r e s , 0.9 mi l l ion i s & v o w ed cash crops The pstent~al arable agricultural area i s probably i n the region c i l l i o n k t a r e s Village v d l o t s 30,6W ha are included under this section For a detailed regional break &+m see &end ix 3 6

rest plantatims These include both softwmdi, u t i l i t y har- and f i r e hardmds m 2 bulk of the plantations are Stare M& but a b u t 403 ha, are m ea and wattle coFpanies and private individuals.

ropical hlgh forests include mangrove, groundvater forest, and muntain forest

i m b Wadlands These are fa i r l y dry areas covered by a mantle o f trees wtose c m s rmre or less tmch w t h the canopy height 8 tL 18 m Tree spx ies of m i m s e a e fanily daninate m2y are sparsely ppulated by m due to the presence o f tse-tse f l les, i n fe r t i l e soi ls and shortage of nater

itemediate &land are b e b e n mimtc woodlands and bush lands b y are rmre opn, w i n l y due to less rainfal l

s h lands These are f a i r l y open lands with acacia/cmiphora species as the daninant type These s p i e s rarely grm ta l l e r than tm They are found i n the smi- -as of th? c w t r y

lvanna i s defined here as an open mixture o f trees and shrubs with less than 50% gramd cover i n a t a l l grmth of grass

"asslands Are areas withaut wmdy constihients

7e division k b e n woodlands, bushland and savanna i s hard to define a t tires, but * woodland figures e r e taken frm the Village Forestry report and ishland and grassland figures Mere estimated fron the vegetation map (p801 of the Land Use Repr t Tk savanna area was ass& to te anything l e f t af ter the a ltegories had k n f i l l e d Excluded fran W above classification are tk areas of b m s , roads, rivers, ets , which cure ed ar estimated 1 5 m i l l i on ha. I .sured that each of tk ahve categories contain mll areas occupied by houses, etc

,r Zanzibar, the various vegetation t y x s have been estimated

p s e d u p th? vegetation types are the legal uses o f the land Practically a l l land belongs to the State Houever, o f the areas with trees on h, only 152 ?served exclusively for forestry use w!th their manaswent vested i n the Forestry mvision of the Ministry o f NaWal Resources and Tourism There are 12 9 mil r td res of forest reserves which include a l l th? tropical hlgh forests and plantation (except the tea and wattle plantations) plus 11 9 m i l l ion k t a r e mdlands The m i n i n g , 32 5 m i l l ha o f &lands, 13 7 m i l l ha o f bushlands and 16 4 m i l l ha. o f savanna lands are public lands The v d on th?se lands ca w l y taken provided i t i s for self conslnption and i s not a reserved s p i e s These public lands c w l d te lmked on as a m - p m n e n t asset as fa r as !amss i s m c e m d

E areas of vil lage &lots given I n the l as t a l u m are s c h s that have b?m planted slnce 1972 (see Village Forestry I n Tanzania) In s m areas trre plan 1 farm and i n mll &lots has been undertaken by the famer for a long time, rc estimate of these areas are available but Weir volure has been estimjted u -ee cover on agriculbnal land (See Pppsnd~x 3 6)

----p

Vegetation Agriculture ( l ) Forest Pbl W lhdl ads i b t m t i a l Es t~mted Popilation ( s i l l ) Trpe Fmd Cash mop SW W #h Inter Bushland Savanna Total Yieldfy Consurption Total M a n

R q l m

Tanga Ki l imngaro Arusha b r a Manra bkst iake Shinyanga K~gola Ruhnd

W y a Tabara Sing,& m Innga hbrogoro Coast Llndl Mbuara RWUM Lan11bar

Total B ~ m s i

Fercentage

(1) Including v i l lage wxdlots

Smces W m , 8, 1975 Ed Land use i n Ken a and Tanzama, Royal College of Forestry, Stackhim, Wnshav. K, 1W An Inventory o f BiYmss i n Kenya Beijer Inst~tute, Stockblm. W n

In order to est imte WE standing stak, various surveys *err consulted Jnich are m t ~ a e d i n WE abwe bno publications The w g h t o f standlog stock i s total &M grwX weight including branch28 M-act~cal ly a l l forest inventories m l y glve sten v o l m usually to 15 om top d i m t e r The follaviog average *eights pr k t a r e have been assured far d i f f e r m t vegetatlm types -

A3ricultwe fmd. M t area 18 t dry a m 10 t Coffeeltea 3 2 t Sofbvssd plantatims 160 t HnrW plantations 185 t . Tmpical high forests 95 t ' MI& &lands 40 t . Intemediate woodlands 20 t Bush land 12 t Savam 4 t

Wi th regard to WE p t e n t i a l yield, WE follaving figures were assured - percentage o f standing crop

W l c u l t m e f a d 6 67, Coffee/tea 33 33; So fbml plantatims 3 33; brdmd plantations 3 33, Al l 0 t h ~ vegetat~m types 2 5%

It was assured that &re was m wmdy b ~ m s i i n iwmps, grasslands and i n alpine area

In or&r t o es t iw te cmsurpt~on tk total cmsurp tm was aver@ according to pJpl lat im in each reg im Therefore no allavance hds been m & for tk reg1ms In high areas using rmre w x d for f ~ 1 o r WE urban areas using rmre wxd rui materials i n WE fm of charcoal and i m s t n a l wml pmdvcts.

Yey SW = s o f W s (confers) H4 = hardnoods 1K = tmpical high forest K = misture contmt (hy basis) Y = pr year

T k area o f cash crops and fwest plantations by region i s est imted as follavs

APPENDIX 3.8

Tanzania 2000: Est imated Saving O f Energy By Increased E f f i c i e n c y ( U n i t - P J ' s )

Petroleum Natura l E l e c t r i - Hydro Cal c i um Agr i c- Sector Power Source Prod. Gas c i t y Power Coal Carbide Fuelwood Charcoal Residues To ta l

A. End Use.

Household 0.40 0.60 0.40 Urban (0.25) (0.30) (0.35) Rural (0.15) (0.30) (0.05) A g r i c u l t u r e 1.25 I n d u s t r y 5.50 0.70 0.50 Serv ice 0.30 0.35 0.85 Transpor t 10.00 0.20

Tota l Savings 17.45 1.85 1.75 2.10 126.30 11.00 2.50 162.95 I

Cons. w i t h o u t Saving % Saving

B . Pr imary Use.

R e f i n e r y 0.50 El ec. Gen. 1.45 0.70 -1.75 0.50 0.30 Char.Prod.Improved

Techniques Char. Savi ng

To ta l A + B Savings 19.40 2.55 0.00 0.50 2.40 219.10 0.00 2.50 246.45

Cons. W i t h o u t Saving % Saving

APPENDIX 3 .9

Tanzania 2000: P o s s i b l e Demand For Petro leum Products And Source Of Supply.

Type o f P roduc t Kerosene Residual O i l ( T o t a l M i l l Sec to r L.P.G. ( P a r a f f i n ) J e t Fuel P e t r o l s D iese l & B1 tumen T o t a l % Tonnes) ( 6 )

Household 0.48 6.74 7.22 10 0.16 Urban (0.45) (4 .26 ) (4 .71) ( 7 ) (0 .10) Rura l (0 .03) (2 .48 ) (2 .51) ( 3 ) (0 .06) A g r i c u l t u r e 0 .50 6.54 7.04 10 0.16 I n d u s t r i a l ( 1 ) 0.05 0.65 0 .80 15.74 17.24 2 4 0.38 S e r v i c e ~ r a n s ~ o r t ( ~ ) El ec . Genera t i on

T o t a l 0.65 7.45 2.60 15.24 21.35 23.41 7 0 . 7 0 ( ~ ) 1 0 0 1.57 T i p e r ~ e f i n e r y ( ~ ) 0.37 1.83 (3.73) 1 .90 5.09 6.52 14.87 30.58 4 3 0.67 U n s a t i s f i e d Demand 0.28 5.62 (6 .32 ) 0.70 10.15 14.83 8.54 40.12 57 0 .90

P o s s i b l e Ou tpu t 3 0 0 t / d R e f i n e r y Wi th Cracker 0.79 3.95 ( 8 . 0 4 ) 4.09 11.01 14.04 10.47 44.35 90% Capac i t y P o s s i b l e S u r p l u s / O e f i c i t 0.51 - 1.67 (1 .72 ) 3.39 0.86 -0.79 1 .93 4.23

1. T h i s exc ludes any use o f o i l f o r a pe t rochemica l i n d u s t r y , f e r t i l i z e r i n d u s t r y e t c . 2. I n c l u d e d i n t h i s f i g u r e a r e 0.66 PJ used by t h e r e f i n e r y i t s e l f . 3. P resen t c a p a c i t y 2000 tonnes p e r day. 4. I t has been assumed t h a t 8.05 PJ o f o t h e r f u e l s w i l l be used by t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r . I f t h e y a r e no t , t hen t h i s t o t a l

w i l l be i n c r e a s e d t o 38.05 PJ. 5. U n t i l o i l has been found i n e x p l o i t a b l e q u a n t i t i e s , i t i s assumed t h a t t h i s q u a n t i t y w i l l have t o be met by i m p o r t i n g

crude o r r e f i n e d p roduc ts . 6. Assumed 45.37 PJ 's = 1 m i l l i o n tonnes o f o i l e q u i v a l e n t .

APPENDIX 3.10

Tanzania 2000: P o s s i b l e E l e c t r i c a l Genera t ion P a t t e r n .

E l e c t r i c a l Genera t ion

Fuel

C a p a c i t y P o t e n t i a l Assumed Actua l Prod. Outpu t Trans- Sa les Fue l Energy Convers ion Output /Yr Day Worked As % o f F u l l Per Y r . m i s s i o n Per Y r . Requ i red Value E f f i c i e n c y

MW P. J . Per Yr. C a p a c i t y P.J. Loss P.J. By Type (GJ/T) % ( 2 )

S~nal l Hydro 2 5 0 . 8 365 40 0 .32 0 . 0 4 0.28 Hydro ( 3 ) 380 12.0 365 4 2 ( 4 ) 5.03 0.63 4 . 4 0 Coal 48 1.5 350 60 0.87 0.03 0.84 80,000t 22 50 N a t u r a l Gas 100 3.2 350 60 1 .81 0.07 1.74 98 m i l l m3 37") 50 Wood 5 0 1.6 350 60 0 .91 0.04 0.87 113,400t 16 5 0 Replacement O i l ( 5 ) 7 0 2.2 350 5 0 1.06 0.04 1.02 47,OOOt 45 30 Rep1 acement D i e s e l 32 l .O 350 50 0.48 0.02 0.46 35,200t 45 30

Sub T o t a l 705 22.3 10.48 0.87 9 .61

E s t ~ m a t e d Demand 787 24.9 11.72 0.92 10.80

Add1 L i o n Supply 82 2.6 350 50 1.24 0.05 1.19 55,000t O i l E q u i v a l e n t Requ i red

l

l . Energy v a l u e 37 MJ p e r m3.

2. These c o n v e r s i o n e f f i c i e n c i e s may be on t h e h i g h s i d e and thus more energy may be r e q u i r e d t o genera te t h e s t a t e d amount o f energy. 3. Proposed hydro power c o n s i s t s o f t h e e x i s t i n g u n i t s (see Appendix 3 . 3 ) 248 MW p l u s Mtera, ( 8 0 ) and h a l f o f Kingenenas ( 5 2 ) o r a l l o f

Kingenenas and l e s s o f t l i e add1 t i o n a l s u p p l y f rom o i l . I f a l a r g e consumer c o u l d be found e i t h e r w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y o r o u t s i d e then i t I S p o s s i b l e t o t h i n k about b u i l d i n g S t i g l e r s gorge.

4. T h ~ s p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y r e f l e c t s t h e use p a t t e r n . I f e l e c t r i c i t y c o u l d be spread e v e n l y t h r o u g h o u t t h e day then t h i s percentage c o u l d be i n c r e a s e d . The i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y shou ld be a b l e t o meet peak demand b u t i t wou ld be p o s s i b l e t o use t h e o f f peak s u p p l y f o r pumping w a t e r t o s t o r a g e dams, o r f o r n i g h t - t i m e ~ n d u s t r ~ a l use .

5. I t i s assumed, rep lacement o i l and d i e s e l s e t s a r e moved t o where t 3 e y are r e q u i r e d . I t i s a l s o p o s s l b l e t o c o n v e r t t h e e x i s t i n g DS o i l f i r e d t o n a t u r a l gas. T h i s wou ld r e q u i r e about 50 m i l l i o n m o f gas b u t save about 41,000t o i l . However by t h e y e a r 2000 the e x i s t i n g o i l and d i e s e l s e t s w i l l have been r e p l a c e d .

6 . The l a t e s t Tanesco's f o r e c a s t f o r t h e y e a r 2000 i s 589MW, some 198MW l e s s than t h e above f o r e c a s t . The f o r e c a s t i n t h i s r e p o r t i s based on an i n c r e a s e i n p e r - c a p i t a w e a l t h o f 1% p e r year . Tanesco 's f o r e c a s t by i m p l i c a t i o n assumes t h a t i n c r e a s e i n demand w i l l b a r e l y keep pace w i t h t h e r a t e o f u r b a n i s a t i o n . I f Tanesco 's f o r e c a s t i s c o r r e c t , then ind igenous hydropower c o u l d ~ n e e t a p p r o x i m a t e l y 70% o f consumption, as opposed t o 50% (Appendix 3 .10) . A lso Uganda and Tanzania have come t o an agreement t o ex tend t h e Usanda g r ~ d system t o West Lake (Bukoba), t h e r e f o r e by 2000 Bukoba c o u l d be s u p p l i e d w i t h lmpor ted h y d r o - e l e c t r i c i t y . T h i s was n o t taken i n t o account i n t h i s r e p o r t .

CHAPTER 4

Z A M B I A

B Y

P a u l Susman

INTRODUCTION

Zambia i s a l a n d l o c k e d c o u n t r y encompassing 753,000 square k i l o m e t r e s , s i t u a t e d between t h e Zambezi R i v e r and t h e s o u t h e r n r i m o f t h e Congo B a s i n . The r e l i e f o f Zambia i s a s e r i e s o f p l a t e a u x w i t h t h e h i g h e s t s u r f a c e s l o c a t e d i n t h e e a s t and n o r t h - e a s t , r e a c h i n g an e l e v a t i o n o f 2164 me te rs on t h e Malawi b o r d e r . The e l e v a t i o n t ends t o dec rease t o w a r d t h e s o u t h and sou thwes t , w i t h t h e l o w e s t p o i n t i n t h e c o u n t r y (325 m e t e r s ) b e i n g where t h e Zambezi R i v e r e n t e r s Mozambique. The c e n t r a l h i g h 1 ands, c o n t a i n i n g t h e l a r g e s t c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n between Lusaka and t h e Copperbel t, have an average e l e v a t i o n o f 1,230 m e t e r s . T h i s a r e a s l o p e s down t o t h e Kafue B a s i n t o w a r d t h e w e s t and t h e Zambezi V a l l e y t oward t h e e a s t . The Zambezi R i v e r p r o v i d e s t h e ma in d r a i n a g e sys tem o f t h e c o u n t r y w i t h i t s t h r e e t r i b u t a r i e s , t h e Kabompo, t h e Kafue, and t h e Luangwa R i v e r s . P r o v i d i n g g r e a t p o t e n t i a l h y d r o e l e c t r i c power, t h e Zambezi d rops down t h e V i c t o r i a F a l l s a t L i v i n g s t o n e (107 m e t e r s h i g h and 1 .6 km b r o a d ) . The Lake K a r i b a and Kafue h y d r o e l e c t r i c p l a n t s p1 ay an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n Zamb ia ' s e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n .

Zamb ia ' s r a i n f a l l p a t t e r n i s r e g u l a r . D u r i n g t h e w e t season, f r o m DecemSer t o A p r i l , t h e n o r t h e r n p l a t e a u has t h e g r e a t e s t annual p r e c i p i t a t i o n o f between 100 and 140 cm. R a i n f a l l decreases toward t h e s o u t h t o a l o w o f 5 1 cm. Lusaka, i n t h e c e n t r a l p a r t o f t h e c o u n t r y , r e c e i v e s an average o f 76 cm p e r y e a r .

Of t h e t o t a l l a n d a rea , o n l y a b o u t 5 p e r c e n t i s c u l t i v a t e d and a n o t h e r 5 p e r c e n t i s a r a b l e . F o r t y p e r c e n t i s c o n s i d e r e d p o t e n t i a l l y c u l t i v a b l e . Commerci a1 f a r m i n g i s c o n c e n t r a t e d a1 ong t h e l i n e o f r a i l be tween L i v i n g s t o n e and Kabwe. I n o t h e r areas, t r a d i t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l p r a c t i c e s p redomina te . These i n c l ude c h i temene ( s l a s h and b u r n ) , mound c u l t i v a t i o n , g rass1 and c u l t i v a t i o n , f l o o d p l a i n c u l t i v a t i o n , and c a t t l e g r a z i n g . R e l y i n g upon l o c a l wood sou rces f o r b u r n i n g , ch i t emene a g r i c u l t u r e has t h e g r e a t e s t p o t e n t i a l f o r c a u s i n g d e f o r e s t a t i o n and /o r e r o s i o n prob lems. T h i s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d , i n more d e t a i l , be low.

Zambia 's i n d i g e n o u s ene rgy s u p p l i e s i n c l u d e h y d r o power, c o a l , wood, and g r e a t s o l a r p o t e n t i a l ( e s p e c i a l l y f r o m May t h r o u g h November). However, i t i m p o r t s 100 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y ' s c r u d e p e t r o l e u m r e q u i r e m e n t s a t h i g h c o s t s , dhe t o p r e v a i l i n g p e t r o l e u m p r i c e s and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c t o r s .

DEMOGRAPHY

L i k e many o t h e r T h i r d Wor ld c o u n t r i e s , Zambia i s e x p e r i e n c i n g a l o n g t e r m r u r a l t o u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . I n p r e v i o u s y e a r s t h i s m i g r a t i o n was more seasona l i n n a t u r e o r was p a r t o f a

c i r c u l a t o r y p a t t e r n i n w h i c h m i g r a n t s e n t e r e d u r b a n a reas f o r a few y e a r s and t h e n r e t u r n e d t o r u r a l a reas . I n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d ( a t l e a s t s i n c e 1969) m i g r a t i o n appears t o be l e a d i n g t o a more permanent u r b a n i z a t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n as a who le ( B l a n k h a r t , 1981,p.36). F o r t y t h r e e p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i s now u rban (1980 ) , up f rom 29.4 p e r c e n t i n 1969. T h r e e- q u a r t e r s (73.5 p e r c e n t ) o f t h e u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n l i v e i n c i t i e s o f 100,000 o r more. Most o f t h i s u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n ( 8 4 p e r c e n t ) may be f o u n d a l o n g t h e n o r t h - s o u t h l i n e o f r a i l f r o m L i v i n g s t o n e t o t h e Copperbe l t.

R u r a l t o u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s a m a j o r f a c t o r i n u rban p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . From 1969 t o 1980 t h e average annual u rban p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e ( see T a b l e 4 . 1 ) was 6 .7 p e r c e n t ( a d o u b l i n g t i m e o f 10 .5 y e a r s ) . Ano the r sou rce r e p o r t s t h e u rban p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e a t 11 p e r c e n t i n 1978 ( d o u b l i n g t i m e o f 6 .6 y e a r s ) ( K u r l a n , 1978,p1616). D u r i n g t h e same t i m e p e r i o d , t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n ave rage annual g r o w t h r a t e was o n l y 1.1 p e r c e n t and t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e was 3 . 1 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r .

U r b a n i z a t i o n l e a d s t o changes i n t h e p r o f i l e o f n a t i o n a l e n e r g y demand. Geograph ic c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n i n u rban a reas r e s u l t s i n more r a p i d e x p l o i t a t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e l o c a l i z e d wood r e s o u r c e s f o r househo ld use . Fu r the rmore , u r b a n p r e f e r e n c e f o r c h a r c o a l o v e r f i r e w o o d may l e a d t o more r a p i d d e p l e t i o n o f wood fue l sou rces . Demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y and o t h e r non-wood e n e r g y sou rces may be expec ted t o i n c r e a s e as w e l l . On t h e o t h e r hand, r u r a l wood fue l demand may d i m i n i s h i n p r o p o r t i o n t o p o p u l a t i o n l o s s , t h u s a1 l e v i a t i n g p r e s s u r e on r u r a l wood supp l i es.

The exodus f r o m r u r a l " t r a d i t i o n a l " a g r i c u l t u r e ( d e f i n e d b y t h e C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e as h a v i n g an annua l cash income be low 600 kwacha) t o u rban areas, appears t o be l e d by young ma les . I n o u t l y i n g r u r a l a reas t h e sex r a t i o (number o f males p e r 100 f e m a l e s ) i s c o n s i d e r a b l y l o w e r t h a n t h e t o t a l n a t i o n a l f i g u r e . I n 1963 t h e n a t i o n a l f i g u r e was 97.5 men p e r 100 women. I n towns i t was 179 men/100 women, w h i l e i n r u r a l a reas i t was o n l y 81 men/100 women. Ru ra l t o u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n s h i f t s s i n c e 1963 s u g g e s t even more ex t reme f i g u r e s . The o u t l y i n g r u r a l a reas have t h e l o w e s t sex r a t i o s w h i l e Lusaka and t h e Copperbel t have t h e h i g h e s t i n t h e c o u n t r y .

A f u r t h e r s u g g e s t i o n o f changes i n t h e sex r a t i o s i s t h e l o w e r p r o p o r t i o n o f u rban househo lds (34 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l househo lds i n 1977-78) compared t o u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n (43 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n ) . T h i s may be a t t r i b u t e d t o s i n g l e males j o i n i n g a l r e a d y e s t a b l i s h e d househo lds o f f a m i l y and f r i e n d s . A l t h o u g h each a d d i t i o n a l member o f a househo ld i n c r e a s e s ene rgy r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h a t househo ld , t h e t o t a l e n e r g y demand may w e l l be l e s s t h a n t h e 6 . 7 p e r c e n t u rban p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e . A c t u a l f i g u r e s f o r t h e r a t e o f househo ld f o r m a t i o n a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e .

Many o f t h e m i g r a n t s s e t t l e i n s q u a t t e r compounds because o f a seve re h o u s i n g s h o r t a g e as w e l l as l o w cash incomes. I n 1974,

TABLE 4 . 1

Demographic/Economic I n d i c a t o r s

1980 1980 Ave. % P r o j e c t e d ESRG C o r r e c t e d Gr. / y r . Ave. Growth f i g u r e f i g u r e 1969-80 Rate/Year %

P o p u l a t i o n ( 5 . 8 3 ~ 106 ) 5 . 6 8 x 1 0 6 ( a ) 3 . 1 3 .3 ( t o yea r 2000) ( b )

P o p u l a t i o n (2 .22 X 106 ) 2.44 X 1 0 6 ( a ) 6 . 7 ( c ) 5 .0

P o p u l a t i o n 6 ( 3 . 6 1 x 1 0 6 ) 3 . 2 4 ~ 1 0 ( a ) 1.1 ?

Households ( . 5 6 1 X 106 ) .302 X 1 0 6 ( d )

Households ( . 602 X 106 ) .582 x 2 0 6 ( d )

M i l l i o n Kwacha) 1353.7 3 .1 ( c o n s t a n t 1970 p r i c e s )

3038.2 ( c u r r e n t p r i c e s )

831.8 (1970 p r i c e s a d j u s t e d f o r te rms o f t r a d e )

P r o j e c t i o n s 1977-80 Fo r 1981

a b l e 1A f o r I n d u s t r i a l o u t p u t . a b l e 1B f o r 1981 P r o j e c t i o n s by Sec to r .

o n t h l y D i g e s t o f S t a t i s t i c s , 1981, V o l . X V I I , pp.1-3

981 Wor ld Development R e p o r t o f Wor ld Bank.

u r l a n (1978, p . 1661) i n d i c a t e s a 1978 r a t e o f urban p o p u l a t i o n growth o f 11 e r c e n t .

i g u r e s a r e f o r 1978 and a r e taken f r o m Chidumayo (1979) .

a l u e s f o r q u a n t i t y o f hous ing s tock ( n o t households) f r o m A g r i c u l t u r a l and a s t o r a l P r o d u c t i o n 1977-78 (Non-Commercial S e c t o r ) , g e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e , usaka, March 1980, a r e urban bous inq s t o c k : .722 X 10 ; u r a l hous ing s t o c k : . 701 X 10'.

30 p e r c e n t o f u r b a n h o u s i n g s t o c k c o n s i s t e d o f s q u a t t e r u n i t s . On l y a m i n u t e f r a c t i o n o f t h e s e have e l e c t r i c i t y . The r e s t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e s e compounds r e l y upon wood, c h a r c o a l , kerosene and cand lewax as e n e r g y sou rces .

There i s a new government i n i t i a t i v e t o encourage sma l l s c a l e a g r i c u l t u r e . I f s u c c e s s f u l , t h e programmes may a1 t e r t h e l o c a t i o n and n a t u r e o f ene rgy demand as r u r a l t o u rban m i g r a t i o n d e c e l e r a t e s . The s i x hundred l a r g e s c a l e commercial fa rms i n Zambia (compared t o 6,000 i n Zimbabwe) do n o t appear t o p l a y a m a j o r r o l e i n e n e r g y consumpt ion, a1 though s t u d i e s i n p r o g r e s s may soon p r o v i d e new i n f o r m a t i o n .

A l t h o u g h t h e d r i v i n g f o r c e s b e h i n d m i g r a t i o n a r e complex, much o f wha t o c c u r s i n Zambia can be r e l a t e d t o t h e dominant copper and n o n - f e r r o u s o r e s i n d u s t r y (29 .4 p e r c e n t o f GDP i n 1980 ) . M i n i n g accoun ts f o r 95 p e r c e n t o f Zamb ia ' s e x p o r t s and i m p o r t s c o n s t i t u t e 40 p e r c e n t o f n a t i o n a l GDP. Growth o r d e c l i n e i n t h e m i n i n g s e c t o r c a n n o t be s e p a r a t e d f r o m w o r l d demand and p r i c e s .

F o l l o w i n g t h e peak copper p r i c e s i n 1974, t h e r e was an a b r u p t r e v e r s a l i n t h e Zambian economy as w o r l d coppe r marke ts c o l l a p s e d . By t h e end o f 1975 copper p r i c e s f e l l b y 40 p e r c e n t . A t t h e same t i m e i m p o r t p r i c e s i n c r e a s e d b y an average o f 16 p e r c e n t . Zambia a1 so s u f f e r e d h i g h e r t r a n s p o r t c o s t s due t o r a i l d i s r u p t i o n s accompanying wars i n s u r r o u n d i n g c o u n t r i e s . The m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g s e c t o r o f Zambia e x p e r i e n c e d a sha rp d r o p y i e l d i n g an average annua l r a t e o f g r o w t h f r o m 1977 t o 1980 o f - 5 .5 p e r c e n t . Over t h e decade 1971-80, t h i s s e c t o r ' s per formance was - 1 .5 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r on average. The m i n i n g s e c t o r c o n t r i b u t e s a b o u t 90 p e r c e n t o f Zamb ia ' s h a r d c u r r e n c y e a r n i n g s . Given t h e c o n t i n u i n g d e c l i n e i n copper p r i c e s ( w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f 1979) s i n c e 1965, and i t s i m p o r t a n c e t o t h e n a t i o n a l economy, g r o s s domes t i c income p e r c a p i t a d e c l i n e d t o l e s s t h a n h a l f t h e 1965 l e v e l b y 1978. I n J u l y 1982 coppe r p r i c e s d e c l i n e d even more t o $1180/ ton, f r o m $2270/ ton, r e s u l t i n g i n a l o s s o f $0.20 f o r each do1 l a r i n v e s t e d i n Zambian coppe r .

As l o n g as coppe r rema ins i m p o r t a n t t o t h e economy, i t s f o r t u n e s w i l l a f f e c t t h e who le o f t h e c o u n t r y and w i l l c e r t a i n l y be a m a j o r d e t e r m i n a n t i n ene rgy demand. C u r r e n t l y t h e mines use 80 p e r c e n t o f Zamb ia ' s t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y demand, 33 p e r c e n t o f i m p o r t e d c r u d e o i l and more t h a n 62 p e r c e n t o f Zamb ia ' s c o a l . It i s no s u r p r i s e t h a t t h i s i m p o r t a n t s e c t o r l e d t h e c o u n t r y t o a 5 p e r c e n t d e c l i n e i n n a t i o n a l GDP f r o m 1977 t o 1980.

Economic g r o w t h o f 0 .6 p e r c e n t (1971- 1980) (measured i n g row th o f r e a l GDP) has n o t k e p t pace w i t h t h e p o p u l a t i o n g row th r a t e o f 3 . 1 p e r c e n t and c e r t a i n l y n o t w i t h u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h o f 6 .7 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r on average.

Manu fac tu r i ng a c t i v i t y grew a t 2 . 1 p e r c e n t i n r e a l GDP (1971-80) t o accoun t f o r 11.8 p e r c e n t o f GDP i n 1980. I t s r o l l e r c o a s t e r pe r fo rmance showed an upward 4 .0 p e r c e n t g rowth r a t e d u r i n g 1977-80, i n p a r t compensat ing f o r e a r l i e r downward s h i f t s . One o f t h e l i m i t i n g f a c t o r s i n i n d u s t r i a l g row th i s t h e heavy r e l i a n c e upon i m p o r t e d p r o d u c t i o n i n p u t s ( a c c o u n t i n g f o r 56 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l i m p o r t s ) . As copper p r i c e s plummeted and f o r e i g n exchange became s c a r c e r , i m p o r t s were reduced. H igh p e t r o l e u m p r i c e s f u r t h e r agg rava ted t h i s s i t u a t i o n . Under t h e 1978-79 IMF s t a b i l i z a t i o n programme, t h e government agreed t o l i m i t r e c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e i n o r d e r t o reduce t h e d e f i c i t and c o n t r o l i n f l a t i o n . I n f l a t i o n somewhat aba ted d u r i n g 1979, a y e a r o f h i g h copper p r i c e s , b u t GDP f e l l b y 9 p e r c e n t . I t grew b y o n l y 1 p e r c e n t f r o m 1979 t o 1980.

Between 1977 and 1980 t h e s e r v i c e s e c t o r grew a t o n l y 1 .44 p e r c e n t (measured i n GDP a t c o n s t a n t 1970 p r i c e s ) . Wh i l e e l e c t r i c i t y , gas and w a t e r p r o v i s i o n (21.82 p e r c e n t ) , r e a l e s t a t e (11.11 p e r c e n t ) , bus iness s e r v i c e s (9 .38 p e r c e n t ) , and t h e t r a n s p o r t and communicat ions s e c t o r (8 .06 p e r c e n t ) showed h e a l t h y growth, t h e o p p o s i t e was t r u e f o r f i n a n c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s (- 20.14 p e r c e n t ) , a l o n g w i t h w h o l e s a l e and r e t a i l t r a d e (- 1.03 p e r c e n t ) , and communi t y , s o c i a1 , and o t h e r s e r v i c e s ( i n c l u d i n g c o r r e c t i o n s f o r i m p o r t d u t i e s and impu ted bank charges, 1 . 5 4 p e r c e n t ) ( A n n u a l P lan 1981, p . 5 ) .

A g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y and f i s h e r i e s d e c l i n e d b y 0 .60 p e r c e n t as measured b y c o n t r i b u t i o n t o GDP a t c o n s t a n t 1970 p r i c e s (1977- 80) . R u r a l - u r b a n terms o f t r a d e f a v o u r urban a c t i v i t i e s o v e r a g r i c u l t u r e and p r i c e s f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l commodi t ies have g e n e r a l l y been be low b o r d e r e q u i v a l e n t s (Wor ld Bank, 1981,p79). A breakdown o f s e c t o r a l per formance i s p r e s e n t e d i n Tab le 4 .2 .

Given t h e l o w o r n e g a t i v e g rowth t r e n d s i n m i n i n g and t h e economy as a whole , commercial ene rgy demand i n c r e a s e d f a r more s l o w l y t h a n was expected. O i l i m p o r t s a c t u a l l y d e c l i n e d f r o m 1975/6 - 1980/1. E l e c t r i c i t y demand i n c r e a s e d a t o n l y 3.3 p e r c e n t f r o m 1975-80 and c o a l s a l e s d e c l i n e d b y 25 p e r c e n t f r o m 1975/6 - 1990/1.

WOODFUEL

Woodfuel i s t h e s i n g l e most i m p o r t a n t ene rgy use? i n Zambia. F i rewood and c h a r c o a l accoun ts f o r a t l e a s t 68.3 x 10 j o u l e s o f consumed energy, more than t h r e e t imes g r e a t e r t han t h e n e x t s i n g l e l a r g e s t ene rgy sou rce . I t i s t h e dominant f o r m o f household ene rgy used b y abou t 95.5 p e r c e n t o f Zambian households (Chea t le , 1981,p161).

TABLE 4 .2

Gross Domest i c P r o d u c t By K i n d Of Economic A c t i v i t y I n P r o d u c e r ' s Values A t C o n s t a n t 1970 P r i c e s

( K m i l l i o n )

K i n d o f economic a c t i v i t y 1977 1978 1979 1980

T o t a l Gross Domest i c P r o d u c t

S e c t o r a l breakdown A g r i c u l t u r e , f o r e s t r y and f i s h e r i e s M i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g M a n u f a c t u r i n g E l e c t r i c i t y , gas and w a t e r C o n s t r u c t i o n Wholesale, and r e t a i l t r a d e H o t e l s and r e s t a u r a n t s T r a n s p o r t , commun ica t ions and s t o r a g e F i n a n c i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s and i n s u r a n c e Real e s t a t e Bus iness s e r v i c e s Community, s o c i a l and

p e r s o n a l s e r v i c e s I m p o r t d u t i e s Less Imputed bank charges

Source: Annual P l a n 1981.

Househol d Consumption.

Househo ld e n e r g y end-uses a r e m o s t l y cook ing , l i g h t i n g , h e a t i n g , and r e f r i g e r a t i o n . Woodfuel i s a c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g ( i n c l u d i n g i r o n i n g ) f u e l and cand lewax i s a l i g h t i n g f u e l . E l e c t r i c i t y and kerosene a r e m o s t l y used f o r l i g h t i n g and t h u s a r e n o t end-use s u b s t i t u t e s f o r wood fue l .

V i r t u a l l y 100 p e r c e n t o f r u r a l househo lds use f i r e w o o d . Charcoa l i s used b y 87 p e r c e n t o f u rban househo lds and 24 p e r c e n t o f r u r a l househo lds ( see Tab le 4 . 3 ) . R u r a l c h a r c o a l use i s i n c r e a s i n g as c h a r c o a l i s s u b s t i t u t e d f o r f i r e w o o d c l o s e t o u rban a reas . A s u r v e y conduc ted b y Chidumayo o f t h e N a t u r a l Resources Depar tment i n d i c a t e s t h a t r u r a l househo lds c l o s e t o u r b a n a reas use c h a r c o a l f o r 53 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r e n e r g y needs, 17.7 t i m e s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e ave rage r u r a l use o f c h a r c o a l (Chidumayo, 1979 ) . P r e f e r e n c e f o r c h a r c o a l may be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t s ease o f t r a n s p o r t , smoke less b u r n i n g , conven ience, and p o s s i b l y w i t h d i m i n i s h i n g access t o f i r e w o o d . End-use e f f i c i e n c i e s o f 7.5 p e r c e n t f o r f i r e w o o d , 27.5 p e r c e n t f o r c h a r c o a l , and 42.5 p e r c e n t f o r ke rosene a l l W f o r an e s t i m a t e o f net p e r c a p i t a e n e r g y use 9 . o f a b o u t 1 . 4 X 10 3 k i l o w a t t h o u r s / y e a r . E l e c t r i c i t y b r i n g s i t up t o a b o u t 2 X 1 0 k i l o w a t t h o u r s / y e a r . Gross u rban ene rgy use ( e x c l u d i n g cand lewax ) i s a b o u t 9000 k i l o w a t t h o u r s / y e a r . E i g h t y p e r c e n t o f t h i s i s f r o m f i r e w o o d , 15 p e r c e n t i s f r o m c h a r c o a l , 4 p e r c e n t more f r o m e l e c t r i c i t y , and ke rosene c o n t r i b u t e s 1 p e r c e n t .

S e l e c t i o n o f t h e e n e r g y sou rce i s r e l a t e d t o income. Low c o s t u r b a n r e s i d e n t i a1 a reas a r e domina ted b y wood fue l , kerosene, and cand lewax as opposed t o e l e c t r i c i t y . Chidumayo (1979, 1 0 ) p o i n t s o u t t h a t l o w and medium- cost r e s i d e n t i a l a reas use 1 . 3 t i m e s t h e g r o s s e n e r g y t h a t h i g h - c o s t r e s i d e n t i a l a reas use because 96 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r ene rgy i s d e r i v e d f r o m w o o d f u e l . H i g h - c o s t r e s i d e n t i a l a reas a c t u a l l y have a 1 . 3 t i m e s g r e a t e r n e t p e r c a p i t a e n e r g y use because o f l e s s r e l i a n c e upon wood fue l (87 p e r c e n t o f e n e r g y i n h i g h - c o s t r e s i d e n t i a1 a r e a s ) and g r e a t e r r e l i a n c e upon more e f f i c i e n t f u e l t y p e s ( see T a b l e 4 . 4 ) . F i f t e e n p e r c e n t o f a s u r v e y sample o f u rban househo lds r e v e a l e d use o f a s i n g 1 e e n e r g y source, e i t h e r c h a r c o a l o r e l e c t r i c i t y . F i f t y seven p e r c e n t o f u r b a n househo lds r e l i e d upon a t l e a s t t h r e e ene rgy sou rces .

F i rewood .

F i r e w o o d c o s t s a r e m i n i m a l , o f t e n r e q u i r i n g no cash o u t l a y f o r e i t h e r t h e f u e l o r f o r t h e open f i r e s t o b u r n i t . S i x t y f i v e p e r c e n t o f r u r a l househo lds c o l l e c t f i r e w o o d t h r e e o r more t i m e s a week. E i g h t y t h r e e p e r c e n t o f r u r a l d w e l l e r s o b t a i n f i r e w o o d w i t h i n a 3 hou r w a l k i n g r a d i u s o f t h e i r houses. Chidumayo (1979) e s t i m a t e s t h a t p e r c a p i t a annua l consumpt ion o f f i r e w o o d i n r u r a l a reas i s 2.43 c u b i c m e t e r s , 4 . 9 t i m e s h i g h e r t h a n i n u rban a reas where p e r c a p i t a f i r e w o o d consumpt ion i s 0.5 c u b i c m e t e r s p e r y e a r .

- 142 -

TABLE 4.3

Percentage Uses O f Va r i ous Energy Sources By Zarnbi an Households

Energy Source Urban Rura l

Charcoa l

Fuelwood


Kerosene

Candl ewax

Source: Chidurnayo, 1979, p .7 .

TABLE 4 .4

Household E x p e n d i t u r e (ZK) On Household Energy Use And Average Income (shown i n pa ren theses ) Per Month

Income Group I Income Group I 1 Income Group I 1 1 Energy Source ( Z K 59.00) (ZK 135.00) (ZK 300.00)


Kerosene

Charcoal

- . - i rewood

:and1 ewax

jou rce : Chidumayo ( 1 9 7 9 , p l l )

Only 3 .4 p e r c e n t o f households a r e i n t h e commercial f i r e w o o d t r a d e . When s o l d , f i r e w o o d i s t h e cheapes t source o f ene rgy i n Zambia. N o r m a l l y i t i s s o l d i n cords, a1 though bund les a r e a l s o a v a i l a b l e . I n 1978 t h e average p r i c e o f f i r e w o o d was K6.00 p e r c o r d o r K2.00 p e r tonne y i e l d i n g an average p r i c e p e r k i l o w a t t hou r o f K0.0005.

Charcoa l .

Charcoa l consumpt ion i s e s t i m a t e d a t 168 kg /pe rson /yea r i n urban areas, a l e v e l 2.33 t i m e s t h a t o f 72 kg /pe rson /yea r observed i n r u r a l a reas (Chea t le , 1981, 1 6 3 ) . I n 1978, 2 .4 t o 3.4 m i l l i o n tonnes o f d r y wood e q u i v a l e n t o f c h a r c o a l were used i n Zambian households (Chea t le , 1981, Tab le 3 ) . J. and M. Chea t l e (1981) and Chidumayo (1979) f i n d ev idence t o s u p p o r t t h e h i g h e r range o f t h e e s t i m a t e . Charcoal i s u s u a l l y bu rned i n cha rcoa l s t o v e s (mbaula)* w h i c h c o s t a m in ima l K1.50. F o r t y k g bags o f c h a r c o a l a r e supposed t o be s o l d a t t h e government r e g u l a t e d p r i c e o f abou t K2.50/bag r e s u l t i n g i n an average p r i c e p e r k i l o w a t t hour o f K0.008, c o n s i d e r a b l y more t h a n f o r f i r e w o o d .

Charcoal i s t h e main commercial woodfue l . Approx ima te l y 6 p e r c e n t o f households a r e engaged i n c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n . E i g h t y n i n e p e r c e n t o f c h a r c o a l makers a r e i n r u r a l a reas . T y p i c a l l y u s i n g t h e ear th-mound method o f c h a r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n r e s u l t s i n a 50-80 p e r c e n t ene rgy l o s s and an 85-90 p e r c e n t d r y wood w e i g h t l o s s . The t o t a l ene rgy l o s s f r o m wood t o c h a r c o a l ranges f r o m 67-76 p e r c e n t . B u t cha rcoa l has t w i c e as much ene rgy p e r u n i t w e i g h t and h i g h e r end-use e f f i c i e n c i e s a t 27.5 p e r c e n t compared t o o n l y 7.5 p e r c e n t f o r f i r e w o o d .

Wood1 and Loss

Woodland l o s s r e s u l t s f r o m f i r e w o o d and c h a r c o a l procurement as w e l l as f r o m o t h e r wood use f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , f i s h i n g and i n d u s t r y .

J. & M. C h e a t l e (1981, p163) p r o v i d e an e s t i m a t e o f t h e amount o f wood1 and c l e a r e d p e r y e a r f o r househo ld cha rcoa l and f i r e w o o d consumpt ion. T h e i r c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e based on an u rban p o p u l a t i o n o f 2 .27 m i l l i o n and a r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n o f 3 .21 m i l l i o n . It i s assumed t h a t t h e average y i e l d p e r h e c t a r e f r o m i n d i g e n o u s m ixed w o o d l o t i s 50 tonnes o f d r y wood. As Tab le 4.5 2 shows, a t o t a l o f 1548 km may be c l e a r e d each y e a r f o r household cha rcoa l and f i r e w o o d purposes i n b o t h u rban and r u r a l areas.

* Kerosene s t o v e s a r e more expens i ve a t K17.00 o r more and e l e c t r i c h o t p l a t e s c o s t a t l e a s t K35.00. These a r e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h c o s t ene rgy fo rms even b e f o r e f u e l c o s t s a r e added.

TABLE 4.5

Es t imates Of Annual Fuelwood Consumption For Household Use

Per Cap1 t a Percentage Consumpti on Tonnes Clear F e l l i n g o f Share o f d r y Per Consumer Percentage o f Annual Consumption Annual Consumption d r y wood Woodland Reqy i red wood and o f Per Year Pop. Using (000 Tonnes) (000 Tonnes) (000) Per Year (km ) f i l l e d woodland

Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural To ta l /Urban & Rural Urban Rural T o t a l

Charcoal 125- 77 kg 87 24 332 55 387 3,870 774 86 17 100 168 kg I

W P

0.5 m3 1 .0 m3 42 m

F i rewood 100 160 3,210 3,370 3,370 674 5 95 100 , C lear F e l l e d Area: 32 642 674

1548 km2 may be c l e a r e d each year

1400-1500 km2

removed each year t o meet domest ic needs f o r fuelwood

Source: J. and M. Cheat le, 1981, p. 163 Ave. y i e l d = 50 tonnes wood/ha.

S u b s i s t e n c e wood fue l g a t h e r i n g i s n o t seen as a p r i m e cause o f d e f o r e s t a t i o n , however, commerc ia l f i r e w o o d and cha rcoa l p r o d u c t i o n may a c c o u n t f o r c o n s i d e r a b l e d e f o r e s t a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y i f c l e a r - c u t t i n g p r a c t i c e s a r e f o l l o w e d . The u r b a n m a r k e t o r i e n t a t i o n f o r t h e s e cash c r o p s r e s u l t i n bands o f d e f o r e s t e d a reas r a d i a t i n g o u t f r o m u rban a reas . Charcoa l p r o d u c t i o n s i t e s average l 7 km (2- 50 km r a n g e ) f r o m u r b a n a reas e x c e p t Lusaka, t h e l a r g e s t c i t y ( a p p r o x i m a t e p o p u l a t i o n 600,000) where t h e average d i s t a n c e i s 54 km (ave rage r o a d d i s t a n c e i s 64 km) and now ex tends t o 80 km as a r e s u l t o f d e f o r e s t a t i o n .

P o p u l a t i o n I n c r e a s e and Woodfuel Demand.

An u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h r a t e o f 5 p e r c e n t (1980) o r h i g h e r , n e c e s s a r i l y w i l l e x a c e r b a t e t h e d e f o r e s t a t i o n prob lem. A l t h o u g h demand f o r f i r e w o o d i n t h e l o w g r o w t h ( 1 . 1 p e r c e n t l y e a r ) r u r a l a r e a s i s a c t u a l l y d e c l i n i n g , u r b a n demand f o r cha rcoa l i s r a p i d 1 y i n c r e a s i n g .

I f p e r c a p i t a f u e l w o o d demand rema ins a t c u r r e n t l e v e l s , t h e annua l r a t e o f d e f o r e s t a t i o n w i l l more t h a n d o u b l e b y 1999.

R u r a l Dwel l i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n .

A1 though n a t i o n a l l e v e l s t u d i e s o f wood use i n d w e l l i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n have n o t been conducted, t h e r e has been a s t u d y o f a s i n g l e v i l l a g e w h i c h may be s u g g e s t i v e . Mark Mulenga examined a v i l l a g e o f 6639 p e o p l e w i t h 781 househo lds . * He e s t i m a t e s t h a t a t y p i c a l h u t o f 2 .7 m e t e r s d i a m e t e r uses 450 wood p o l e s w e i g h i n g an average o f 4 k g each. Each h u t l a s t s f r o m 4 t o 5 y e a r s . Mulenga a l s o su rveyed househo ld wood use b y househo ld s i z e c l a s s e s . I n h i s sample o f 30 househo lds (10 f o r each c l a s s ) , t h e s m a l l e s t househo lds ( 1 t o 5 p e o p l e ) used an ave rage o f 43 kg/week o f f ue lwood . Househo lds w i t h 6 t o 10 p e o p l e each consumed an average o f 79 k g h e e k o f f ue lwood and t h e l a r g e s t househo lds ( 1 0 o r more p e o p l e ) used 102 kg/week d u r i n g t h e r a i n y season. D u r i n g t h e e a r l y d r y season fue lwood consumpt ion i s h i g h e r because o f more c o o k i n g (more f o o d i s a v a i l a b l e ) and p r e p a r a t i o n f o r ce remon ies .

I n d u s t r i a l , F i s h i n g and Commercial A g r i c u l t u r a l Wood Use,

I n d u s t r i a l demand f o r c h a r c o a l i s e s t i m a t e d a t 100,000 tonnes o f d r y wood e q u i v a l e n t p e r y e a r (Brown, 1978 ) . S ince 1956 when t h e copper f u r n a c e s were e l e c t r i f i e d , i n d u s t r i a1 wood use

* Mark Mulenga conduc ted t h i s s t u d y f o r a m a s t e r s t h e s i s i n geography a t t h e U r l i v e r s i t y o f Zambia ( f o r t h c o m i n g ) .

has g r e a t l y d i m i n i s h e d . A more comple te s t u d y o f woodfue l use, i n c l u d i n g wood use b y t h e f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y and i n commercial a g r i c u l t u r e , i s now b e i n g conducted b y N.Chidumayo o f t h e N a t u r a l Resources Depar tment o f Zambia.

Loss Due t o Chi temene A g r i c u l t u r e .

Chitemene ( s l a s h and b u r n ) a g r i c u l t u r e i s p r a c t i c e d b y about 800,000 p e o p l e (see F i g u r e 4 . 1 ) . I n o r d e r t o grow m i l l e t , a l a r g e a rea i s c l e a r e d and t h e t r e e s a r e bu rned t o f e r t i l i z e abou t 10-15 p e r c e n t o f t h e c l e a r e d l a n d . The p e r c a p i t a woodland demand i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1.1 h e c t a r e s p e r yea5 r e s u l t i n g i n an annual d e f o r e s t a t i o n o f a t l e a s t 8800 km . Thus, d e f o r e s t a t i ~ n ~ f r o m Chitemene a g r i c u l t u r e and household use may r e a c h 10,000 km p e r y e a r .

E c o l o g i c a l Sources.

2 On ly abou t 45 p e r c e n t (336,428 km ) o f Zambia has woodland s u i t a b l e f o r s h i f t i n g c u l t i v a t i o n o r woodfue l use. The b e s t t r e e s f o r woodfue l a r e f o u n d i n t h e Miombo woodlands p r o v i d i n g c h o i c e B r a c h y s t e g i a and J u l b e r n a r d i a spec ies (see F i g u r e 422 ) . Some o f t h e Miombo wood1 ands a r e i n c l u d e d i n 64,750 km o f F o r e s t Reserves compr i sed o f s t a t e l and and p r o t e c t e d f o r e s t s . These l a n d s a r e supposed t o be p r o t e c t e d . However, because o f a s h o r t a g e o f en fo rcemen t pe rsonne l and a l a c k o f a l t e r n a t i v e wood sources f o r t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n , t h e F o r e s t Reserves s t i l l se rve as a wood sou rce f o r t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n s .

Regenera t i on r a t e s v a r y by r a i n f a l l and s o i l r eg ime b u t appear t o average 50 y e a r s o r more (Chea t le , 1981,p162). I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t r e g e n e r a t i o n r a t e s a r e s h o r t e r i n t h e h i g h e r r a i n f a l l zones i n t h e n o r t h . However, t h e r e i s i nadequa te d a t a on t h i s s u b j e c t (Chidumayo, 1979,p18).

ELECTRICAL GENERATION

H y d r o e l e c t r i c power (HEP) g e n e r a t i o n dominates e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y i n Zambia. U s i n g o n l y 35 p e r c e n t o f t h e hyd ro p o t e n t i a l a l o n g t h e Zambezi and Kafue R i v e r systems, t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c power s t a t i o n s p r o v i d e d 8927 GWH o r 94.5 p e r c e n t o f Zambia 's e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n i n 1980. Most was p r o v i d e d b y t h e HEP p l a n t s a t K a r i b a N o r t h Bank (4004 GWH) and Kafue Gorge (4500 GWH). Remaining e l e c t r i c i t y needs f o r peak and/or ene rgy use a r e met b y 13 p u b l i c s e r v i c e d i e s e l thermal power u n i t s (combined 7.65 MW; 8.97 GWH i n 1980) and 4 gas t u r b i n e the rma l p l a n t s f o r i n d u s t r y on t h e C o p p e r b e l t ( 80 MW; 4 GWH i n 1980) t h a t a r e a l s o f u e l e d b y d i e s e l o i l ( see Tab le 4 . 6 ) .

F I G U R E 4 . 1

Z A M 3 I A : A?.EAS O F C H I T E M E N E A G R I C U L C U R E --

- 163 -

F I G U R E 4.2 ---p-

ZAMBIA : M I O M B O W O O D L A N C --p--

I n 1980, 5673 GWH were consumed i n Zambia. T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a 0 .8 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e ove r 1979, w h i c h i s 56 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n o f p l a n t s (Annual P l a n 1981, p . 7 9 ) . E i g h t y p e r c e n t wen t t o t h e m i n i n g and i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r w h i l e household use accounted f o r 416 GWH and commercial use t o ano the r 374 GWH. A s u r p l u s o f 3136 GWH were e x p o r t e d t o Zimbabwe. I n 1980, 0 .9 GWH were i m p o r t e d f r o m Z a i r e i n c o n t r a s t t o 1 .5 GWH e x p o r t e d t o Z a i r e t h e p r e v i o u s y e a r . E l e c t r i c i t y exchange w i t h Z a i r e i s expec ted t o rema in rough1 y b a l anced f r o m yea r t o y e a r .

Household e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n e x i s t s f o r 48 p e r c e n t o f urban households , b u t i s v i r t u a l l y non e x i s t e n t f o r r u r a l households . I t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t household e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n w i l l p roceed r a p i d l y as t h e c o s t s o f e x t e n d i n g power l i n e s and p1 acement o f t r a n s f o r m e r s a r e bo rne b y t h e i n d i v i d u a l households ( t h e s e c o s t s may be as h i g h as K1000). Power f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s ( i n c l u d i n g i r r i g a t i o n ) occup ies ano the r 92 GWH.

P r o j e c t e d Genera t i on .

The Zambia E l e c t r i c i t y Supp ly C o r p o r a t i o n (ZESCO), a p a r a s t a t a l , p r o j e c t s a s teady i n c r e a s e i n h y d r o e l e c t r i c power p o t e n t i a l and g e n e r a t i o n t o meet f u t u r e demand. However, t h i s presupposes economic expans ion a t 5 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r up t o 1990. C u r r e n t 1 y t h e h y d r o e l e c t r i c p1 a n t s o p e r a t e a t 57 p e r c e n t o f i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . By i n c r e a s i n g o u t p u t and b y add ing f a c i l i t i e s , ZESCO e x p e c t s t o ach ieve a c a p a c i t y o f 2418.80 MW b y 1990. Demand i s p r o j e c t e d a t 10,711 GWH i n 1990 (up f r o m 9697 GWH i n 1981) (see Tab le 4 . 6 ) . Another p o s s i b l e sou rce o f a d d i t i o n a l power i s t h e c u r r e n t s u r p l u s e x p o r t e d t o Zimbabwe. A t p r e s e n t t h e r e i s no government f u n d i n g f o r s i g n i f i c a n t a d d i t i o n a l HEP deve lopment . I f such f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t i s n o t f o r t h c o m i n g , an a l t e r n a t i v e e l e c t r i c a l ene rgy g e n e r a t i o n s c e n a r i o i s l i k e l y .

COAL

Coal S u b s t i t u t e Fo r D i e s e l Powered Genera to rs .

ZESCO's e x p e c t a t i o n s i n c l u d e a c o n s t a n t d i e s e l c a p a c i t y and a s l i g h t i n c r e a s e i n d i e s e l g e n e r a t i o n t h r o u g h 1990. Yet, i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m government* and p r i v a t e * * sources i n d i c a t e s t h a t d i e s e l i s a l r e a d y b e i n g phased o u t and r e p l a c e d b y c o a l . H igh p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t and r e f i n e r y c o s t s and r e l a t i v e l y l o w coa l c o s t s make t h e l a t t e r an i n v i t i n g energy source.***

* Zambia N a t i o n a l Energy L td . , and Maamba Coal Company. ** B r i t i s h Pe t ro leum of Zambia L t d . (62 p e r c e n t o f d i s t r i b u t i o n

o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s i n Zambia). *** P r i c e f r o m r e f i n e r y o f heavy f u e l o i l = K120/ rnet r ic tonne.

Maamba c o a l p r i c e = K36/tonne F.O.B.

TABLE 4 6

R ~ t r l w l a r a t i c n (W Cqdcity a aM &reration]

- p -

er A(a1ECTIOM

767 €C 1367 80 1668 80 1668 80 1668 €C 1668 80 1668 80 1668 80 1668 80 1668 8) 1818 ffl 1569 ffl 1W 80 2118 80 2268 E0 2418 €!J

If c o a l were s i m p l y s u b s t i t u t e d f o r t h e p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n d i e s e l demand, b y 1990 2,193 tonnes o f h i g h s u l f u r Maamba c o a l w o u l d be used t o g e n e r a t e 12 GWH o f e l e c t r i c i t y .

I f c o a l were t o be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r d i e s e l and f o r t h e p r o j e c t e d i n c r e a s e i n demand o f 1014 GWH f r o m 1981-19m t hen an a d d i t i o n a l 182,944 t onnes o f Maamba c o a l / y e a r wou ld be r e q u i r e d . "

A r e p o r t p r e p a r e d b y Maamba Coal Company f o r t h i s s t u d y says:

The r e c e n t w o r l d e v e n t s have u n d e r l i n e d t h e impor tance o f c o a l as f u e l , and a l t h o u g h t h e Maamba d e p o s i t i s n o t l arge enough t o con temp la te c o a l l i q u i f i c a t i o n , i t s t i l l o c c u p i e s a more s t r a t e g i c p o s i t i o n i n t h e Zambian Economy. Toge the r w i t h hydropower ; ( t h e s e ) f o r m t h e Energy base on w h i c h t h e economy o f t h e c o u n t r y can deve l op.

Coal - C u r r e n t P r o d u c t i o n and Consumption.

Maamba c o a l i s a h i g h s u l f u r , 16 p e r c e n t ash f u e l . C u r r e n t c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i s a t 539,139 t o n n e s / y e a r (1981-82). W i t h t h e r e s t o f t h e economy, c o a l p r o d u c t i o n peaked i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h e i970s a t 940.1 thousand tonnes i n 1973 and has d e c l i n e d s i n c e . Known r e s e r v e s w i l l l a s t 40 t o 50 y e a r s a t c u r r e n t r a t e s o f e x p l o i t a t i o n . The c o a l mines a r e s e t up t o a l l o w p r o d u c t i o n a t a maximum o f 630 t onnes /hou r w i t h an ave rage o f 400 t onnes /hou r . M a j o r m a r k e t s f o r t h e c o a l i n c l u d e Zamb ia ' s C o n s o l i d a t e d Copper Mines (ZCCM), who use c o a l f o r me ta l l u r g i c a l p rocesses (a1 though t h e c o a l has no o r v e r y l o w c o k i n g p r o p e r t i e s ) ; N i t r o g e n Chemica ls Zambia, L t d . (NCZ) f o r t h e m a n u f a c t u r e o f f e r t i l i z e r (as a raw m a t e r i a l i n p u t r a t h e r t h a n f u e l ) ; t h e C h i l a n g a Cement F a c t o r y ; and t h e C o p p e r b e l t Power Company f o r t he rma l e l e c t r i c i t y . I n g e n e r a l terms, demand f o r c o a l i s as shown i n Tab le 4.7.

Maamba C o l l i e r y ' s e x p e c t a t i o n s show i n c r e a s i n g demand t o 800,000 - I m i l l i o n tonnes b y 1990. However, t h i s assumes gene ra l

9 . * 1 tonne Maamba Coal = 19.7 X 10 ~ o u l e s .

m n . . h m m w . . . 0 r. r- b b O

l i-( l I , - , - - I d

0 d "- N O W e m F-, , + + m W W r-- 7

.F .r- c c

economic g r o w t h i n t h e s e c t o r s u s i n g c o a l . E x i s t i n g economic t r e n d s w o u l d sugges t a s l o w e r i n c r e a s e , p a r t i c u l a r l y as d i e s e l i s phased o u t .

PETROLEUM

Zambian o i l s u p p l i e s a r e c o n t r o l l e d b y Zambia N a t i o n a l Energy, L t d . (ZNEL), a p a r a s t a t a l . D i s t r i b u t i o n o f pe t ro leum p r o d u c t s i s c a r r i e d o u t b y s e v e r a l r e g u l a t e d p r i v a t e companies. B r i t i s h Pe t ro leum Zambia, L t d . (BP), w i t h 56% sha re o f t h e marke t i s t h e l a r g e s t ( see T a b l e 4 . 8 ) .

Zambia i m p o r t s 100 p e r c e n t o f i t s c r u d e o i l . Most i s c a r r i e d t o t h e I n d e n i R e f i n e r y i n Ndola, Zambia, by t h e TAZAMA p i p e l i n e f r o m Dar es Salaam. Due t o h i g h o i l p r i c e s and d e c l i n i n g r a t e s o f i n d u s t r i a l g row th i n Zambia o v e r r e c e n t y e a r s , i n t e r n a l demand f o r o i l has been f a l l i n g . T h i s i s r e f l e c t e d i n t h e q u a n t i t y o f o i l i m p o r t e d v i a t h e p i p e 1 i n e as w e l l as t h e c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e r e f i n e r y .

The p i p e l i n e c a r r i e d i n c r e a s i n g q u a n t i t i e s o f c r u d e o i l f r o m 1969 t o 1975 (161,690 t o 831,154 m e t r i c t o n n e s ) . S ince t h e n t h e r e has been a d e c l i n e i n p i p e l i n e l o a d ( r e a c h i n g o n l y 749,301 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1979) . 1977 p roved an e x c e p t i o n a l y e a r o f h i g h i m p o r t s (871,894 m e t r i c t o n n e s ) .

Impor ted Sp iked Crude O i l .

Between 1975176 and 1979/80 demand f o r i m p o r t e d s p i k e d c rude o i l i n Zambia d i m i n i s h e d f r o m 818,565 m e t r i c tonnes t o 626,239 m e t r i c tonnes. A s l i g h t l y h i g h e r demand was r e c o r d e d i n 1980181 a t 680,687 m e t r i c tonnes ( see Tab le 4 . 9 ) .

D u r i n g t h e same t i m e p e r i o d t h e volumes o f i m p o r t e d s p i k e d c r u d e o i l d ropped f r o m 924,000 m e t r i c tonnes t o 760,000 m e t r i c tonnes. There was a l s o a s l i g h t upsurge i n i m p o r t s t o 772,000 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1980/81, b u t t h e r e i s no ev idence t h a t a l o n g t e r m u p t u r n i s b e g i n n i n g .

H igh ene rgy c o s t s c o n t r i b u t e t o economic woes. W h i l e s p i k e d c rude o i l i m p o r t s d e c l i n e d f r o m 1975176 t o 1980/81 f rom 6 . 8 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s t o 5 .7 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s , t h e c o s t s t o Zambia i n c r e a s e d f r o m $82.5 m i l l i o n ( p l u s $5 .1 m i l l i o n ocean f r e i g h t cha rges ) t o $198.8 m i l l i o n s ( p l u s $6.3 m i l l i o n ocean f r e i g h t c h a r g e s ) .

R e f i n e r y C a p a c i t y and Consumption.

I n d e n i O i l R e f i n e r y has an annual c a p a c i t y o f 1 .l m i l l i o n m e t r i c tonnes, b u t i t has n o t used more t h a n 79 p e r c e n t o f t h i s c a p a c i t y (1976/77) and i n 1980/81 o n l y 68 p e r c e n t o f c a p a c i t y was used (up 1 p e r c e n t f r o m t h e p r e v i o u s yea r , i n keep ing w i t h t h e o v e r a l l i n c r e a s e i n demand f o r 1980/81) .

R e f i n e r y consumpt ion i s between 4 .5 p e r c e n t and 5 .6 p e r c e n t o f i n p u t . Consumption d e c l i n e d f r o m 38,850 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1975/77 ( 4 . 5 p e r c e n t o f 869,000) t o 34,700 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1979/80. The i n c r e a s e i n r e f i n e r y consumpt ion t o 37,300 m e t r i c tonnes (5 p e r c e n t - r e f i n e r y consumpt ion ) i n 1980/81 r e f l e c t s t h e h i g h e r t h r o u g h p u t o f o i l t h a t y e a r .

P r o c e s s i n g and S t o r a g e Losses.

H i g h e s t p r o c e s s i n g and s t o r a g e l o s s e s were r e c o r d e d i n 1975/76 (9954 m e t r i c t o n n e s ) and t h e s e dropped t o 4127 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1978/79. I n 1978/79, l o s s e s amounted t o 4832 m e t r i c tonnes and t h e n 7 nc reased t o 7352 m e t r i c tonnes i n 1980/81.

Pe t ro leum Demand: Sa les By M a r k e t Ca tego ry 1981/82.

Aggregated i n d u s t r y s a l e s by m a r k e t c a t e g o r y i n d i c a t e t h a t m i n i n g consumes 32.8 p e r c e n t o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s ( see Tab le 4 .10 ) . I t i s f o l l o w e d b y two o t h e r l a r g e consumers o f p e t r o l e u m c r u d e p r o d u c t s : r e t a i l ( 2 4 . 9 p e r c e n t ) ; and commerc ia l and i n d u s t r i a l ( 13 .84 p e r c e n t ) . These t h r e e s e c t o r s combined accoun t f o r a l m o s t t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t h e e n t i r e m a r k e t (72 p e r c e n t ) . A g r i c u l t u r e consumes o n l y 1.1 p e r c e n t o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s and u n c l a s s i f i e d m a r k e t a c t i v i t i e s o n l y 0 . 7 p e r c e n t .

Zambia N a t i o n a l Energy L t d , (ZKEL) compares t w e l v e p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s sha re o f t o t a l q u a n t i t y ( m e t r i c t o n n e s ) consumed i n t h e domes t i c m a r k e t each y e a r ( see Tab le 4 . 1 1 ) . Gas o i l accoun ted f o r a l m o s t 35 p e r c e n t b y w e i g h t o f domes t i c m a r k e t c o ~ s u m p t i o n i n 1980181. The n e x t l a r g e s t m a r k e t s h a r e i s heavy f u e l o i l w i t h 25.3 p e r c e n t . Thus, t h e two l a r g e s t m a r k e t sha res combine t o 60.3 p e r c e n t . A t t h e same t ime , butane, l i g h t g a s o l i n e and l i g h t p e t r o l e u m gas t o g e t h e r accoun ted f o r o n l y 0.8 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l .

The o v e r s l l dec rease i n p e t r o l e u m demand i s r e v e a l e d by examin ing t r e n d s f o r key p r o d u c t s between 1976 and 1981 (see Tab le 4 . 1 2 ) . H i g h magn i tude dec reases i a demand f o r premium gas01 i n e and t r a n s p o r t g j s o i l , o f .!62,652 mJ a r e more t h a n t w i c e as g r e a t as t h e 75,796 m g a i n s i n demand f o r r e g u l a r g a s o l i n e , i l l u m i n a t i n g kerosene, l o w s u l f u r g a s o i l (used i n t h e m i n e s ) , and J e t A - l f u e l .

Average Annual Consumption Of F u e l s I n M i n i n g .

From f i g u r e s p r o v i d e d by t h e Zambi a Consol i d a t e d Copper N ines (ZCCM), t h e p a r a s t a t a : m i n i n g company, e s t i m a t e s o f f u e l consumpt ion b y m i n i n g d i v i s i o n ( g e o g r a p h i c u n i t s ) may be made. A l t h o u g h t h e d a t a a r e i n c o m p l e t e t h e y do p r o v i d e a r e a s o n a b l e i n d j c a t i o n o f t h e p a t t e r n o f f u e l consumpt ion i n t h e m i n i n g s e c t o r . The r e l a t i v e f i g u r e s a r e p r e s e v t e d i n T a b l e 4 . 1 3 .

TABLE 4.10

I n d u s t r y Sa les By Marke t Category (1981/82)

S e c t o r 3 Volume (m ) P e r c e n t

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Road R a i l

R e t a i l

Commercial & I n d u s t r i a l

A g r i c u l t u r a l

A v i a t i o n

M i n i n g

P a r a s t a t a l ( I n c l u d i n g Loca l Government)

Government

O the rs ( U n c l a s s i f i e d )

TOTAL

Source: R e p o r t p r e p a r e d f o r t h i s s t u d y b y S t a t i s t i c s O f f i c e o f B r i t i s h Pe t ro leum Zambia L t d . June 1982.

TABLE 4 .11

Domest ic P e t r o l e u m P r o d u c t s M a r k e t Consumption - 1980/81

P r o d u c t

Q u a n t i t y ( m e t r i c t onnes ) % Share

3 m / tonne

' remi um

legul a r

.erosene

ias O i l

l e t A - l

.ow Sul f u r Gas

leavy Fue l O i l

; i tumen

. i q u i f i e d P e t r o l e u m Gas

. i g h t Fue l O i l

.i g h t Gasol i n e

iu tane

~ o u r c e : R e p o r t p r e p a r e d b y Zambia N a t i o n a l Energy L t d . , f o r t h i s s t u d y ( June 1982) .

TABLE 4.12

3 Domestic Petroleum Product Market Devel opment ( M )

Product 2976 1.977 1978 1979 1980 1981

Regular 37.433 77.925 84.500 78.055 63.206 55.119

Premi cin 185.917 130.651 103.354 97.509 101.292 103.933

Gasoi l ( t r a n s p o r t ) 363.739 346.266 286.322 294.082 285.301 284.071

Gasoil (Low Sul phur M ~ n e s ) (LSGO) 23.689 43.765 23.263 20.838 44.125 42.546

J e t A - l 54.216 63 .751 67.007 80.547 88.015 80.759

Source: Z N E L r e p o r t prepared f o r t h i s s tudy . (June 1982)

TABLE 4.13

Fuel Consumption In Mines

( I PJ = 1015 j o u l e s )

Coal 5.82 PJ 295,200 tonnes

Heavy Fuel Oil 124,800 tonnes

Diesel 2 .99 PJ 77 .16 m i l l i o n l i t e r s

Petrol 0 .20 PJ 5 . 9 m i l l i o n l i t e r s

Light Petrol eum Gas 0.00002 PJ 515 l i t e r s

Low S u l f u r Gas Oil 1568 PJ 45591.9 cubic meters

(based on g a s o l i n e energy e q u i v a l e n t )

Source: Zambia Consol i dated Copper Mines (ZCCM) headquar te rs . Lusaka. Special Report . June 1982.

Buses.

Buses opera ted throughout Zambia and w i t h i n c i t i e s by t h e p a r a s t a t a l United Bus Company of Zambia ( U B Z ) consume approximately 14,000 cubic meters of d i e s e l fue l per y e a r , i n o rder t o maintain s e r v i c e s f o r 1 1 . 8 m i l l i o n annual r i d e r s . The amount and type of f u e l consumed by t h e many mini-buses and o t h e r non-UBZ v e h i c l e s i s unknown a t t h i s t ime. Motor v e h i c l e r e g i s t r a t i o n s do n o t s e p a r a t e c l a s s e s of v e h i c l e s so t h a t i t i s impossible t o determine t h e number of automobiles , buses, t r u c k s , e t c , t h a t a r e r e g i s t e r e d a t any one t ime.

Agricul t u r a l Equipment.

In 1975 t h e r e were approximately 4,100 t r a c t o r s and 240 h a r v e s t e r s i n Zambia o p e r a t i n g i n t h e l a r g e - s c a l e commercial farm s e c t o r . * Fuel consumption f i g u r e s f o r t h i s equipment and more r e c e n t f i g u r e s on t h e number of p ieces of o p e r a t i n g farm equipment were n o t r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . However, a s Table 4 . 8 i n d i c a t e s , t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r purchased 9,052 cubic meters of pe t ro l eum products i n 1981/82.

Long Term F o r e c a s t For Petroleum Indus t ry In Zambia.

P r o j e c t i o n s provided by B r i t i s h Petroleum Zambia Ltd. , i n d i c a t e decl i n i n g dem2nd f o r petroleum p3oducts i n Zambia between 1982 (771,000 m ) and 1990 (738,000 m ) , s e e Table 4.14. Upturns i n demand f o r s t r a i g h t gas o i l , l i g h t f u e l o i l , and LPG a r e cancel l e d by d e c l i n e s i n demand f o r J e t A- l, premium g a s o l i n e , r e g u l a r g a s o l i n e , i l l u m i n a t i n g kerosene, and heavy fue l o i l . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o no te t h a t premium g a s o l i n e i s a l ready rep1 acing r e g u l a r gasol i n e . This may be due t o lower than usual regul a r gasol i ne oc tane r a t i n g s .

Broadly speaking, t h e s e c t o r t h a t w i l l be a f f e c t e d by a f u t u r e low demand i s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n . The mining s e c t o r i s expected t o use more o i l . However, BP'S f o r e c a s t s do not f u l l y cons ider government and mine i n d u s t r y p1 ans t o s u b s t i t u t e coal and/or e l e c t r i c i t y f o r petroleum products where p o s s i b l e .

* In 1973/74 t h e r e were 1 ,019 l a r g e - s c a l e farms with more than 79 h e c t a r e s using a t o t a l of 1,747,370 ha. Of t h i s , 121,220 ha. were c u l t i v a t e d crop land ; 144,400 ha. were l e f t fa l low; 25,730 were stumped and c l e a r e d l a n d ; 804,790 ha. were f o r p a s t u r e and g r a z i n g ; 209,570 ha. were no t s u i t a b l e f o r c u l t i v a t i o n ; and 441,670 ha. were no t c l a s s i f i e d ( A g r i c u l t u r a l and Pas tora l Production (Commercial Farms) 1973-1974, Republ i c of Zambi a Central S t a t i s t i c a l Off ice , Lusaka, March 1982, p. 11).

TABLE 4.14

3 Petro leum F u e l s I n d u s t r y Fo recas ts (1982-1990) ( M )

duc t 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990

S u l f u r Gas O i l .G.O.

3 i g h t Gas O i l

i t Fuel O i l

~y Fuel O i l

?ce: B r i t i s h Pet ro leum Zambia L t d . Repor t Prepared For T h i s Study. Lusaka. (June 1982) .

The R e p u b l i c o f Zambia T h i r d N a t i o n a l Development P l a n 1979-1983 a n t i c i p a t e s a 1 . 2 p e r c e n t r a t e o f annua l g row th i n domes t i c consumpt ion f o r t h e y e a r s o f t h e p l a n . However, an e s t i m a t e d 100 thousand tonnes o f l i q u i d gaseous f u e l s t h a t were e x p o r t e d i n 1978 a r e n o t f o r e c a s t f o r 1983. Thus, agg rega te p r o d u c t i o n r e q u i r e m e n t s w i l l be l e s s . The p l a n says t h a t e x i s t i n g r e f i n e r y c a p a c i t y i s s u f f i c i e n t t o meet r e q u i r e m e n t s , b u t towards t h e end o f t h e p l a n " a d e c i s i o n w i l l have t o be t a k e n e i t h e r t o expand f u r t h e r t h e r e f i n e r y c a p a c i t y c o n s t r u c t a d d i t i o n a l p i p e l i n e c a p a c i t y " (TNDP, p . 263 ) . The government i n v i t e d a Wor ld Bank Team t o c a r r y o u t f e a s i b i l i t y s t u d i e s o f m o d i f y i n g t h e r e f i n e r y t o a1 l o w f u r t h e r b r e a k i n g down o f heavy f u e l S . The u l t i m a t e goa l i s t o i n c r e a s e t h e c r u d e component o f i m p o r t s i n o r d e r t o r e d u c e f o r e i g n exchange l o s s . P i p e l i n e m o d i f i c a t i o n w o u l d e n t a i l " t w i n n i n g " t h e TAZAMA P i p e l i n e t o a l l o w s e p a r a t e pumping o f r e f i n e d f e e d s t o c k compunents ( i . e . naphtha, kerosene, and gas o i l ) (TNDP,p263).

O the r Developments I n The O i l I n d u s t r y .

R e f i n e r y f o r Used L u b r i c a n t s . Fo r o v e r 1 8 months B r i t i s h Pe t ro leum Zambia L t d . , has been

o p e r a t i n g a l u b e o i l r e c y c l i n g p l a n t f o r used o i l i n K i t w e . The p l a n t has a c a p a c i t y o f 3,000 tonnes o f base o i l p e r y e a r , b u t i s c u r r e n t l y p r o c e s s i n g o n l y 1500 tonnes p e r y e a r . BP a l s o has a b l e n d i n g p l a n t i n Ndo la t h a t can p roduce between 10,000 and 12,000 tonnes o f f i n i s h e d l u b r i c a n t s p e r y e a r . I t s l o w e r c u r r e n t p r o d u c t i o n l eve1 s ( e x a c t f i g u r e s u n a v a i l a b l e ) a r e due t o l i m i t s o f t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n sys tem t o b r i n g used o i l l u b r i c a n t s t o t h e b l e n d i n g p1 a n t f r o m t h e mines.

O r u r Recondi t i o n i n g P1 a n t .

S? Zambia L t d , e s t a b l i s h e d a drum r e c o n d i t i o n i n g p l a n t w h i c h s h o u l d be a b l e t o r e c o n d i t i o n 1500 drums p e r month o r 18,000 p e r y e a r . Fue l e s t i m a t e s f o r t h i s p l a n t a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e . However, t h e p1 a n t s h o u l d save Zambia f o r e i g n exchange.

COMMENTS

C o n t i n u i n g Zamb~an r e l i a n c e upon t h e copper and m i n e r a l s i n d b s t r y p resages a l o w r a t e o f economic g r o w t h i n t h e nea r f u t u r e and t h e r e f o r e a l o w e r demand f o r e n e r g y t h a n m i g h t o t h e r w i s e be expec ted . I n c r e a s i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t i t i o n i n t h e coppe r m a r k e t and t h e tendency o f coppe r p r i c e s t o r i s e and f a 1 l w i t h f 1 u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e economies o f i n d u s t r i a l i z e d c o u n t r i e s make i t tin1 i k e l y t h a t t h i s s e c t o r w i l : p r o v i d e a s o l u t i o n t o Zambia 's p r e s e n t economic d i f f i c ~ i l t i e s (Tanzer , 1.980, p. 1 2 6 ) .

Reduced f o r e c a s t s o f ene rgy consumpt ion accompany t h i s economic s i t u a t i o n f o r non- househo ld commerc ia l ene rgy . However, a h i g h r a t e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n a l o n g w i t h p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e s i n gene ra l s h o u l d l e a d t o g r e a t e r househo ld e n e r g y use, e s p e c i a l l y i n t h e f o r m o f a s h i f t f r o m woodfue l t o c h a r c o a l . T h i s w o u l d be mos t e v i d e n t i n u r b a n and p e r i - u r b a n a reas . Some a d d i t i o n a l demand f o r c h a r c o a l may be expec ted f r o m u rban i n f o r m a l s e c t o r a c t i v i t i e s , a l t h o u g h t h i s has n o t been s t u d i e d t o d a t e . I n r u r a l a reas s u b s t i t u t i o n o f c h a r c o a l f o r wood fue l p r o b a b l y w i l l p roceed more s l o w l y , t h u s m a i n t a i n i n g l o w e r p r e s s u r e upon l o c a l l y a v a i l a b l e wood s u p p l i e s . However, i f government d i s c u s s i o n s o f p r o m o t i n g smal l s c a l e commerci a1 a g r i c u l t u r e and e s t a b l i s h i n g 18 s t a t e f a rms a round t h e c o u n t r y come t o f r u i t i o n , c h a r c o a l may come t o domina te f u e l use more r a p i d l y . Such a s h i f t w o u l d r e s u l t f r o m i n c r e a s e d l a b o u r t i m e i n commerc ia l a g r i c u l t u r a l v e n t u r e s and reduced t i m e and l a b o u r a v a i l a b i l i t y f o r c o l l e c t i n g f i r e w o o d . Emphasis upon r u r a l commerc ia l a g r i c u l t u r e may a l s o b r i n g a b o u t a r e d u c t i o n i n Chi temene a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e r e b y f u r t h e r r e d u c i n g p r e s s u r e upon l o c a l wood s u p p l i e s . E s t i m a t e s o f wood demand b y new commerc ia l a g r i c u l t u r a l a c t i v i t i e s have n o t been made.

I n a s i t u a t i o n t h a t may be d e s c r i b e d as a v i c i o u s c i r c l e , government s u p p o r t f o r commerci a1 a g r i c u l t u r a l deve lopment (one p a r t o f an o v e r a l l deve lopment programme) i s l i m i t e d by t h e r e p e r c u s s i o n s o f t h e economy's o v e r a l l pe r fo rmance o f t h e l a s t decade. A s h o r t a g e o f f u n d s f o r deve lopment p r o j e c t s stems f r o m many f a c t o r s such as t h e l o n g - t e r m economic d e c l i n e , i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e a n t i - i n f l a t i o n a r y IMF programme, d e b t s e r v i c i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s ( 9 . 7 p e r c e n t o f GNP i n 1978 ) , and h i g h i m p o r t c o s t s , e s p e c i a l l y f o r o i l and c a p i t a l goods (1977- 71 p e r c e n t o f i m p o r t s were mach ine ry and t r a n s p o r t equ ipmen t ) . W i t h o u t adequate f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t a r u r a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n w i l l o c c u r w i t h i n t h e n e x t decade.

A long w i t h p o p u l a t i o n g row th and u r b a n i z a t i o n may come a c j rea te r demand f o r househo ld e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n . E x t e n s i o n o f e l e c t r i c a l s e r v i c e i s c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e h i g h hook-up c o s t s t h a t a r e p a i d b y t h e i n d i v i d u a l consumers. Fu r the rmore , a seve re h o u s i n g s h o r t a g e f o r c e s many t o r e s i d e i n wha t i s expec ted t o be non- permanent d w e l l i n g s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r a t e o f househo ld e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n p r o b a b l y w i l l be l o w e r t h a n a n t i c i p a t e d u n l e s s househo ld income s i g n i f i c a n t 1 y i n c r e a s e s and s u i t a b l e h o u s i n g becomes a v a i l a b l e . ( I n d u s t r i a l and commerc ia l demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y a r e s u b j e c t t o t h e prob lems o f g r o w t h f o r t h e economy as a w h o l e ) .

I n t h e 1981 Annual P l a n t h e government c a l l s f o r s t u d y o f s o l a r e n e r g y p o s s i b i l i t i e s f o r Zambia. C e r t a i n l y , a c o u n t r y r e c e i v i n g a t l e a s t h a l f a y e a r o f r a i n l e s s days s h o u l d c o n s i d e r l o w - c o s t s o l a r cooke rs , h o t w a t e r h e a t e r s , e t c . These c o u l d be p a r t i a l s u b s t i t u t e s f o r c h a r c o a l o r f i r e w o o d , p o t e n t i a l l y s a v i n g c o n s i d e r a b l e l a b o u r t i m e and p r e s e r v i n g t h e f o r e s t s ( T a b l e s 4.15, 4.16, and 4 .17 p r e s e n t summary v i e w s o f f u e l u s e ) .

TABLE 4.15

Summary R e p o r t O f Fuel Consumption I n Zambia

15 ( m i l l i o n s o f g i g a - j o u l e s = j o u l e s X 10 ) *

Urban Household Woodf u e l Charcoa l Kerosene E l e c t r i c i t y

Rura l Household Woodfuel Charcoal E l e c t r i c i t y O the rs

A g r i c u l t u r e Woodf u e l Gas01 i n e ) D i e s e l ) E l e c t r i c i t y

I n d u s t r y I n d u s t r i a l Wood & Woodfuel

Charcoa l E l e c t r i c i t y Coal D i e s e l

Commercial / I n s t . E l e c t r i c i t y Woodf u e l Charcoa l P e t r o l eum Produc ts

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n Regu la r P e t r o l Premi um P e t r o l E l e c t r i c i t y D i e s e l J e t Fue l A - l Res idua l O i l

2.56 11.00 (37874 m : t o t a l n a t i o n a l consumpt ion) 1 .5

9 .3 t o 16 (100,000 tonnes d r y wood/year) (9 .3 GJ/ tonne g reen wood; 16 GJ/tonne assuming 15% m o i s t u r e c o n t e n t )

1 .6 16 .4 ( i n c l u d i n g mine s e c t o r ) 10.6 ( i n c l u d i n g mine s e c t o r )

2.99 (mine consumpt ion o n l y - 1981)

(44,789 m e t r i c t o n n e s ) (69,970 m e t r i c t onnes ) ( 8 GWH) - - - (69,440 m e t r i c t onnes ) ---

* Other u n i t s a r e i n pa ren theses .

D e t a i l e d Fuel Consumption f o r 1980

( I PJ = 1015 j o u l e s )

Petroleum E l e c t r i c i t y Fuelwood Charcoal Coke Coal To ta l P roduc t s

Urban Households

422 GWh 160,000 t 332,000 t 1 .5 PJ 2.56 PJ 11 PJ

Rural Households

234 GWh 3,210,000 t 55,000 t 0 .8 PJ 51.4 PJ 1.82 PJ

I A

m Commercial 379 GWh V

I

1.4 PJ 1.4 PJ

A g r i c u l t u r e 92 GWh 0.3 PJ

I n d u s t r y 4 ,538 GWh 1,000,000 t 16.3 PJ 9.3-16 PJ 1.6 PJ

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n 8 GWh 0.03 PJ

TOTAL 25.1 PJ 5,673 GWh 53.9 PJ 14.42 PJ 2.4 PJ 11.25 PJ 20.4 PJ

Aggregate Energy Balance, 1980-81 -

Crude Pe t ro l cunl I n d u s t r i a l Fuel wood Charcoal Coke Hydro Coal Products & Oil Products Wood Washed Coal

Indigenous 1,000,000 t 8927 GWh 575,425 t 0.0 0.0 9.6-16 PJ 12.8 PJ 12.8 PJ 2.4 PJ 32.1 PJ 12.8 PJ

Imports 1980/81 748,044 t

1-otal 571,134 s l

Requirements 748,044 t 114,859 t 9.6-16 PJ 11.2 PJ m CO I

E l e c t r i c i t y Genera t ion -

Oil Ref inery 748,0.44 t

D i s t r i b u t i o n Losses 44,732 t

497 GWh 1.6 PJ

Tota l f i n a l 25.1 consumption 703,312 t

54 PJ 1 2 . 8 P J 2 . 4 P J 5673 GWh 11.2 (Maamba coal (Annual d a t a ) Plan 1981) 11.8 (Annual Plan

1 tonne Maaniba coal = 29.7 PJ.

Reg iona l I n t e g r a t i o n .

There i S a c l o s e r e 1 a t i o n s h i p between economic deve l opment and g r o w t h and ene rgy consumpt ion. Government p l a n s t o promote i ndependen t economic g r o w t h w i t h i n Zambia s u f f e r f i n a n c i a l l i m i t a t i o n s , some o f w h i c h stem f r o m t h e h i g h c o s t o f i m p o r t i n g M i d d l e E a s t o i l . I t may be p o s s i b l e t o a c h i e v e some r e g i o n a l o i l s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y i f p i p e l i n e c o n n e c t i o n s were e s t a b l i s h e d w i t h Angola, t h e r e b y u s i n g i t s o i l t o f u e l t h e economies o f o t h e r SADCC c o u n t r i e s as w e l l . U s i n g s u r p l u s c a p a c i t y a t t h e I n d e n i R e f i n e r y , Zambia c o u l d become a r e g i o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n c e n t e r . The TAZAMA P ipe1 i n e , c o n n e c t i n g Dar es Salaam t o t h e I n d e n i R e f i n e r y , f o r example, may be m o d i f i e d t o p r o v i d e Tanzan ia w i t h Ango lan o i l .

O the r p o s s i b i l i t i e s e x i s t f o r e n e r g y and o t h e r exchanges w i t h i n t h e r e g i o n . Zamb ia ' s s u r p l u s h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y c o u l d c o n t i n u e t o f l o w t o Zimbabwe i n exchange f o r Zimbabwe's coa l ( h i g h e r qua l i t y t h a n Zambian c o a l ) and /o r o t h e r commodi t i e s i n demand i n Zambia.

REFERENCES

B1 a n k h a r t , S. T., The S e t t 1 ement P a t t e r n i n Zambi a, Department o f Town and Coun t ry P l a n n i n g . U n i v e r s i t y o f Zambia. 1981.

Chea t le , J and M., "Woodfuel i n Zambia," Techn ica l Paper No. 12, pp. 161-170 i n B a s i c Needs i n an Economy Under P ressu re I n t e r n a t i o n a l Labour O r g a n i z a t i o n . Add is Ababa, 1981.

Chidumayo, N. Household Woodfuel and Env i ronmen t i n Zambia, Env i ronmen ta l R e p o r t No. 1 (1979) . N a t u r a l Resources Department, Lusaka, R e p u b l i c o f Zambia.

Ku r lan , G.T, Encyc loped ia o f t h e T h i r d World, v o l . 11. N.Y. : F a c t s on F i l e , 1978.

Tanzer, M . , The Race f o r Resources. N.Y.: M o n t h l y Review Press, 1980.

A g r i c u l t u r a l and P a s t o r a l P r o d u c t i o n 1977-1978 (Non-Commercial S e c t o r ) , C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e . March 1981.

M o n t h l y D i g e s t o f S t a t i s t i c s , v o l . x v i i , 1- 3. Jan/March 1981.

1980 Census o f P o p u l a t i o n and Hous ing. C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i ce. January 1981.

R e p u b l i c o f Zambia, 1981 Annual P lan .

T h i r d N a t i o n a l Devel opment P1 an.

Worl d Bank, Wor ld Devel opment R e p o r t 1981.

CHAPTER 5

Z I M B A B W E

BY

R i c h a r d H o s i e r

INTRODUCTION

As a n e w l y i n d e p e n d e n t n a t i o n i n v o l v e d w i t h mak ing c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e r e g i o n a l i n t e g r a t i o n o f t h e Sou the rn A f r i c a n r e g i o n , Zimbabwe mus t l o o k n o t o n l y a t i t s own e n e r g y needs and r e s o u r c e s b u t a l s o a t t h o s e o f i t s n e i g h b o u r s . Our pu rpose i s t o summarize wha t i s known a b o u t Zimbabwe's r e s o u r c e base and economy i n such a way t h a t i t w i l l i n f o r m n a t i o n a l and r e g i o n a l ene rgy p l a n n i n g . I t m u s t be s t a t e d f r o m t h e o u t s e t t h a t because ene rgy i s an i n t e r m e d i a t e good i n e v e r y t y p e o f economic a c t i v i t y , ene rgy p l a n n i n g c a n n o t t a k e p l a c e i n a vacuum. I t mus t be done w i t h f u l l knowledge o f t h e e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t o f each s e c t o r o f t h e economy. As a r e s u l t , we w i l l f o c u s on t h e end-use r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e energy- consuming s e c t o r s o f t h e economy i n an a t t e m p t t o answer q u e s t i o n s n o t j u s t a b o u t how much ene rgy i s needed, b u t a l s o a b o u t wha t t h e e n e r g y i s needed f o r .

I n k e e p i n g w i t h t h i s approach, t h e s t u d y w i l l f a l l i n t o t h r e e p a r t s . The f i r s t w i l l p r o v i d e a b r i e f r e v i e w o f p o p u l a t i o n and economic t r e n d s i n Zimbabwe up t o t h e p r e s e n t . T h i s i s des igned t o p r o v i d e a c o n t e x t f o r t h e s e c t i o n s w h i c h f o l l o w . The second s e c t i o n w i l l p r o v i d e a b r i e f summary o f t h e end-use r e q u i r e m e n t s o f d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s o f t h e economy and i s des igned t o p r o v i d e i n s i g h t i n t o t h e demand f o r e n e r g y i n Zimbabwe. The t h i r d s e c t i o n w i l l t r a c e t h e d i f f e r e n t s u p p l i e s o f e n e r g y and w i l l summarize t h e i r p r o j e c t e d f u t u r e c o n t r i b u t i o n s . A number o f i s s u e s w i l l be r a i s e d t h r o u g h o u t w h i c h w i l l be d i s c u s s e d i n t h e c o n c l u d i n g s e c t i o n . The annex w i l l p r e s e n t a summary o f t h e t a b l e s and f i g u r e s used f o r t h e d i s c u s s i o n i n t h e body o f t h e pape r .

THE ECONOMY

Popul a t i o n .

D i s c u s s i o n s o f p o p u l a t i o n t r e n d s i n Zimbabwe mus t be somewhat t e n t a t i v e i n n a t u r e as t h e mos t r e c e n t census r e s u l t s a r e f r o m 1969. Need less t o say these f i g u r e s a r e somewhat da ted . The r e s u l t s o f t h e census b e i n g conduc ted i n August 1982 w i l l n o t be a v a i l a b l e f o r sometime, meaning t h a t any d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e t r e n d s i n p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h must r e l y on t h e e s t i m a t e s p roduced r e g u l a r l y b y t h e C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e (CSO, 1982, p . 1 ) .

E s t i m a t e s o f r u r a l , u rban, and t o t a l n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n as o f December 31, 1981, a r e c o n t a i n e d i n T a b l e 5 . 1 . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e f i g u r e s , t w e n t y p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f n e a r l y 7 . 5 m i l l i o n l i v e d i n t h e m a j o r u rban a reas . A l t h o u g h no f i r m e s t i m a t e s e x i s t , i t i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e pe rcen tage o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n 1 i v i n g i n t h e u r b a n a reas w i l l c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e .

TABLE 5 . 1

P o p u l a t i o n Es t ima tes - December 31, 1981

Popul a t i o n ( ' 000)

P e r c e n t o f T o t a l

Ru ra l

Urban

TOTAL 7480 100.0%

Source: M i n i s t r y o f Economic P l a n n i n g and Development, 1981, Tab le 23.

P o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h was e s t i m a t e d a t 3 .6% p e r annum i n 1969, t h e l a s t y e a r f o r w h i c h f i g u r e s a r e a v a i l a b l e . F o r 1980, t h e CS0 u t i l i z e d an o v e r a l l p o p u l a t i o n g row th r a t e o f 3 . 4 % , b u t t h e r a t e has appeared t o f l u c t u a t e between 3 and 3 .6 p e r c e n t o v e r t h e p a s t decade ( M i n i s t r y o f Economic P1 a n n i n g and Development, 1981 ) . Whatever t h e case, i t appears t h a t t h e p o p u l a t i o n w i l l c o n t i n u e g r o w i n g r a p i d l y i n t h e immedia te f u t u r e as a r e s u l t o f imp roved h e a l t h c a r e and i n c r e a s e d l a b o u r r e q u i r e m e n t s .

Economi c Growth.

I n 1980, Zimbabwe demons t ra ted a p e r c a p i t a income o f L432 o r r o u g h l y $600 U.S. ( M i n i s t r y o f Economic P l a n n i n g and Development, 1981, p . 6 ) . T h i s makes i t a m i d d l e- income d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . D e s p i t e t h e s e t backs f a c e d d u r i n g t h e war y e a r s when b o t h GDP and GDP p e r c a p i t a f e l l more t h a n t w e l v e p e r c e n t , p o s t - i n d e p e n d e n t Zimbabwe grew n e a r l y e l e v e n p e r c e n t i n 1980. T h i s h i g h g r o w t h r a t e speaks w e l l f o r t h e f u t u r e economic we1 l - b e i n g o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t n a t i o n .

T a b l e 5 . 2 c o n t a i n s t h e o f f i c i a l e s t i m a t e o f GDP a t f a c t o r c o s t s b y i n d u s t r y o f o r i g i n f o r 1980. As t h e f i g u r e s r e f l e c t , t h e l a r g e s t s e c t o r i n t h e Zimbabwean economy i s m a n u f a c t u r i n g , a c c o u n t i n g f o r o v e r t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f GDP. Nex t i n o r d e r o f i m p o r t a n c e i s t h e a g r i c u l t u r e / f o r e s t r y s e c t o r , f o l l o w e d b y h o t e l s and r e s t a u r a n t s , p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , and m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g . Toge the r t h e s e accoun ted f o r o v e r s e v e n t y p e r c e n t o f GDP i n 1980. A l t h o u g h t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r i s l a r g e , i t i s c e n t e r e d a round t h e s t r e n g t h s o f t h e p r i m a r y s e c t o r ( a g r i c u l t u r e and m i n i n g ) w h i c h means t h a t Zimbabwe i s s t i l l l a r g e l y an e x p o r t e r o f p r i m a r y p r o d u c t s . S i n c e no s i n g l e p r o d u c t dominates , t h e economy r e t a i n s a f a i r l y b r o a d base t h a t has k e p t i t r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e t h r o u g h t h e y e a r s .

The ave rage compound g r o w t h r a t e s f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , m a n u f a c t u r i n g , m i n i n g , and t o t a l GDP a r e l i s t e d i n Tab le 5 .3 . These f i g u r e s r e f l e c t a s t r o n g p e r i o d o f economic g row th p r i o r t o 1975, a t w h i c h p o i n t g r o w t h proceeded more s l o w l y ( o r even n e g a t i v e l y ) as a r e s u l t o f t h e war . The f i f t e e n y e a r average g r o w t h r a t e s r e f l e c t an expand ing economy f u e l e d by s t r o n g m i n i n g and m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r s .

L e s t t h e s e f i g u r e s p a i n t t o o r o s y an o u t l o o k f o r t h e Zimbabwean economy, i t s h o u l d be k e p t i n m i n d t h a t t h e r e r e m a i n two m a j o r f l a w s i n t h e economic o r d e r (MEPD, 1981 ) . The f i r s t o f t h e s e sho r t com ings i s d i s t r i b u t i o n a l . A1 though t h e p e r c a p i t a GDP i s h i g h b y compar i son w i t h o t h e r A f r i c a n c o u n t r i e s , t h e i n e q u a l i t i e s w i t h i n t h e c o u n t r y a r e ex t reme . I t has been e s t i m a t e d t h a t t h e p e r c a p i t a i n c r e a s e i n t h e modern s e c t o r i s a t l e a s t t w e n t y t i m e s t h a t i n t h e r u r a l peasan t s e c t o r . I f t h e d i s p a r i t y between t h e modern and t h e t r a d i t i o n a l s e c t o r i s s t r i k i n g , t h e d i s p a r i t y w i t h i n t h e modern s e c t o r a l o n g r a c i a l l i n e s i s no b e t t e r . I n 1979, e a r n i n g s f o r b l a c k wo rke rs i n t h e

TABLE 5.2

GDP A t F a c t o r Cost By I n d u s t r y Of O r i g i n

Sec to r C o n t r i b u t i o n P e r c e n t ( 2 $ M i l l i o n ) Of T o t a l

A g r i c u l t u r e / F o r e s t r y

M i n i n g l Q u a r r y i n g

M a n u f a c t u r i n g

E l e c t r i c i t y /Wate r

C o n s t r u c t i o n

F inance / Insu rance

Ho te l s /Res tau ran ts

Transport/Communications

Pub1 i c A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

O the rs

T o t a l GDP ( F a c t o r C o s t ) 3084 100.0%

Source: MEDP, 1981, p .41

Average Compound Growth Ra tes F o r 1965-1970, 1970-1975, 1975-1980.

S e c t o r Growth Ra te Growth Ra te Growth Ra te Growth Ra te

1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1965-1980

A g r i c u l t u r e 3 .3% 6 .2% - 3 .1% 2 .6%

M a n u f a c t u r i n g 6 . 0 % 5 .1% 2 .4% 5 .4%

M i n i n g 6 . 1 % 7.3% 3 .2% 5 .2%

Other 6 . 2 % 5 .2% 1 . 0 % 3 .5%

T o t a l 6 .0% 5 .3% 0.9% 2 .3%

modern s e c t o r ave raged $1180 w h i l e t h o s e f o r t h e i r w h i t e c o u n t e r p a r t s were e s t i m a t e d a t $11,950. These g r o s s d i s p a r i t i e s can o n l y be a l l e v i a t e d t h r o u g h a c o n c e r t e d e f f o r t t o t r a n s f o r m t h e economy t h r o u g h l a n d r e f o r m , minimum wage l e g i s l a t i o n , and o t h e r p01 i c i e s p r o m o t i n g a more e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f w e a l t h .

The second p rob lem i s one t h a t i s o f more immedia te conce rn t o a d i s c u s s i o n o f e n e r g y consumpt ion t r e n d s . D u r i n g UDI, f o r e i g n exchange r e s t r i c t i o n s and economic s a n c t i o n s g r e a t l y r e s t r i c t e d t h e a b i l i t y o f l o c a l f i r m s t o i m p o r t m a c h i n e r y and p a r t s . T h i s means t h a t b o t h t h e p r i v a t e and p u b l i c i n f r a s t r u c t u r e i n h e r i t e d by Zimbabwe i s a g i n g and i n need o f r e p a i r o r r ep lacemen t . The government and p r i v a t e f i r m s d u r i n g UDI were f o r c e d t o consume t h e i r c a p i t a l t o c o n t i n u e o p e r a t i o n i n s t e a d o f u p d a t i n g and m a i n t a i n i n g t h e i r f a c i l i t i e s . F o r t h e economy, t h i s means t h a t a g r e a t dea l o f f o r e i g n exchange w i l l have t o be s p e n t m e r e l y t o m a i n t a i n t h e p r e s e n t c a p i t a l equ ipment . I n e n e r g y te rms, t h i s means t h a t e n e r g y e f f i c i e n c y i s c u r r e n t l y low, and i t w i l l r ema in so u n t i l t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k i s r e p l a c e d . Very l i t t l e e f f i c i e n c y can be g a i n e d u n t i l new, more modern equ ipmen t r e p 1 aces t h e 01 d ove rworked m a c h i n e r y now i n p1 ace. F i n d i n g t h e f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s t o do t h i s may p r o v e t o be a d i f f i c u l t , i f n o t i m p o s s i b l e t a s k .

ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l p r e s e n t e s t i m a t e s o f ene rgy consumpt ion f o r t h e y e a r 1980 based on a number o f d i f f e r e n t sou rces . I t i s des igned t o p r e s e n t an i m p r e s s i o n o f t h e q u a n t i t y o f ene rgy r e q u i r e d f o r t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e economy. P a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n i s g i v e n t o t h e needs o f f o u r s e c t o r s o f t h e economy: domes t i c , m a n u f a c t u r i n g , t r a n s p o r t , and a g r i c u l t u r a l , as t h e s e a r e t h e l a r g e s t ene rgy consuming p o r t i o n s o f t h e economy and t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t f o r o v e r e i g h t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f a l l i n a n i m a t e e n e r g y consumed i n Zimbabwe.

Tab le 5 .4 c o n t a i n s e s t i m a t e s o f e n e r g y consumpt ion f o r t h e base y e a r 1980. These e s t i m a t e s a r e i n p h y s i c a l u n i t s b u t were c o n v e r t e d t o j o u l e v a l u e s f o r t h e c o m p u t a t i o n o f t h e pe rcen tage o f t o t a l e n e r g y accoun ted f o r b y each f u e l and each s e c t o r . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e s e e s t i m a t e s , wood i s t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t f u e l , a c c o u n t i n g f o r o v e r f o r t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f t o t a l consumpt ion. N e a r l y a l l o f t h i s i s consumed i n t h e r u r a l househo ld s e c t o r . Coal i s t h e second mos t i m p o r t a n t e n e r g y s u p p l y a c c o u n t i n g f o r o v e r t h i r t y p e r c e n t o f a l l ene rgy consumed. The m o s t i m p o r t a n t consumer o f c o a l i s t h e i n d u s t r i a l m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e m i n e r a l - p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s . Sma l l e r , b u t s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t i e s o f c o a l a r e u t i l i z e d i n t r a n s p o r t , a g r i c u l t u r e and f o v e s t r y , m i n i n g and power- gene ra t i on . E l e c t r i c i t y i s t h e t h i r d mos t s i g n i f i c a n t e n e r g y source,

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a c c o u n t i n g f o r r o u g h l y e l e v e n p e r c e n t o f a l l e n e r g y consumed. The m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r i s a g a i n t h e l a r g e s t consumer, a c c o u n t i n s f o r o v e r f i f t y p e r c e n t o f a l l f u e l s consumed.

Of t h e l i q u i d f u e l s consumed i n Zimbabwe, d i e s e l f u e l (gas o i l ) i s t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t , f o l l o w e d c l o s e l y b y p e t r o l . Bo th a r e used p redominan t1 y b y t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , a1 though a s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t y o f d i e s e l i s used b y t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r t o power mach ine ry . The use o f power p a r a f f i n has been d i s c o u r a g e d o v e r r e c e n t y e a r s and i t i s p r e s e n t l y t h e l e a s t i m p o r t a n t l i q u i d f u e l i n use. I l l u m i n a t i n g p a r a f f i n i s used p r e d o m i n a t e l y i n t h e domes t i c s e c t o r , a1 t hough some i s u t i l i z e d t o power c r o p d r i e r s .

The f o l l o w i n g pages w i l l d i s c u s s p a t t e r n s and prob lems o f ene rgy consumpt ion i n t h e Zimbabwean economy. P a t t e r n s o f consumpt ion i n t h e househo ld s e c t o r s w i l l be d i s c u s s e d f i r s t , as t h i s i s t h e s e c t o r w i t h t h e l a r g e s t e n e r g y r e q u i r e m e n t s . A d i s c u s s i o n o f e n e r g y consumpt ion i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l , t r a n s p o r t and a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r s w i l l f o l l o w . Each s e c t i o n w i l l d i s c u s s p r e s e n t end- use p a t t e r n s , f u t u r e changes and c o n s e r v a t i o n p o t e n t i a l .

Domest ic Energy Consumpt ion.

I n t h e d o m e s t i c s e c t o r , ene rgy i s used m o s t l y f o r cook ing , w i t h s m a l l e r q u a n t i t i e s s e r v i n g t o p r o v i d e h e a t and l i g h t . I t i s i n t h i s s e c t o r t h a t ene rgy assumes i t s r o l e as a b a s i c human need. W i t h o u t f u e l t o cook w i t h , i t i s p o s s i b l e t o s t a r v e . I f a n a t i o n i s t o p l a n f o r t h e p h y s i c a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f i t s peop le , i t m u s t c o n s i d e r t h e i r f u e l needs as s u r e l y as i t m u s t t a k e i n t o accoun t t h e i r need f o r f o o d and s h e l t e r . I n t h i s r e s p e c t , t h e ma in tenance o f an adequate s u p p l y o f t h e p r i n c i p a l domes t i c f u e l , wood, m u s t be g i v e n a h i g h p r i o r i t y w i t h i n government p l a n n i n g c i r c l e s , as i t i s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t domes t i c f u e l .

A h o u s e h o l d ' s f u e l use p a t t e r n s w i l l v a r y a c c o r d i n g t o income, t h e p r i c e s and a v a i l a b i l i ty o f d i f f e r e n t f u e l s , t h e a p p l i a n c e s owned, and even t h e seasons d u r i n g w h i c h t h e o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e r e c o r d e d . One o f t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s d e t e r m i n i n g f u e l consumpt ion p a t t e r n s i s t h e range o f o p t i o n s open t o a househo ld . I n g e n e r a l , t h e range o f o p t i o n s open t o a r u r a l househo ld a r e much more l i m i t e d t h a n t h o s e a v a i l a b l e t o an u r b a n househo ld . The d i s c u s s i o n o f domes t i c f u e l consumpt ion w i l l b e g i n w i t h consumpt ion i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r and w i l l t h e n move t o a n a l y s e e n e r g y consumpt ion i n t h e u r b a n s e c t o r .

R u r a l Househo ld Energy Consumption.

R u r a l Areas i n Zimbabwe s u p p o r t e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 6 m i l l i o n p e o p l e i n 1980 o r a b o u t e i g h t y p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n . T h i s i s t h e p o r t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n t h a t has been m o s t h e a v i l y a f f e c t e d b y t h e f u e l w o o d sho r tage , and a l s o has t h e f e w e s t

a1 t e r n a t i v e f u e l s a v a i l a b l e t o them. F o r t h e s e and o t h e r reasons , t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i s p r o b a b l y t h e p o r t i o n o f t h e n a t i o n t h a t i s mos t i n need o f e n e r g y a s s i s t a n c e .

T a b l e 5 .5 p r e s e n t s a b r i e f summary o f t h e r e s u l t s o f a r u r a l e n e r g y s u r v e y u n d e r t a k e n f r o m December 1981 t h r o u g h F e b r u a r y 1982 b y a g r o u p o f s t u d e n t s f r o m t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f Zimbabwe. The s u r v e y c o n t a i n e d q u e s t i o n s a b o u t t h e q u a n t i t y o f f u e l used, t h e end- uses served, and househo ld income. The income groups summarized i n T a b l e 5 .5 were e s t a b l i s h e d t o more c l e a r l y examine t h e v a r i a t i o n s i n f u e l consumpt ion p a t t e r n s ( see Hos ie r , 1983) .

The f i g u r e s i n t h e t a b l e r e f l e c t t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f wood as a domes t i c f u e l f o r r u r a l Zimbabweans. O f t h e two hundred househo lds surveyed, one hundred and n i n e t y - s e v e n o f them (98.5%) used fue lwood . The r u r a l househo ld s e c t o r i s a l m o s t who1 l y dependent upon f u e l w o o d f o r c o o k i n g and h e a t i n g . I t i s a l s o i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t f u e l wood consumpt ion i n c r e a s e s as income i n c r e a s e s . A1 though t h i s t r e n d i s n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , i t does r e f l e c t t h e f a c t t h a t h i g h e r income househo lds w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e i r wood consumpt ion o v e r t h e l e v e l m a i n t a i n e d b y l o w income househo lds . T h i s t r e n d a l s o may be a r e f l e c t i o n o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n f a m i l y s i z e , as l a r g e househo lds g e n e r a l l y have h i g h e r incomes t h a n do sma l l househo lds .

The second m o s t i m p o r t a n t f u e l i n t h e r u r a l househo ld s e c t o r i s p a r a f f i n . P a r a f f i n i s used f o r l i g h t i n g b y n e a r l y a l l o f t h e househo lds su rveyed ( 9 5 % ) . A1 though t h e q u a n t i t y consumed averages s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n one l i t e r p e r week, t h e e s c a l a t i n g c o s t o f p a r a f f i n can be s a i d t o have a n e g a t i v e i m p a c t on r u r a l incomes. S i n c e e l e c t r i c i t y has n o t been e x t e n d e d t o t h e communal areas, t h e r e i s v i r t u a l l y no a l t e r n a t i v e t o p a r a f f i n f o r e v e n i n g l i g h t i n g . U n l i k e wood consumpt ion, p a r a f f i n consumpt ion i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s shows no tendency t o i n c r e a s e w i t h a r i s e i n income.

Of t h e t h r e e o t h e r f u e l s used i n t h e r u r a l a reas, c r o p wastes a r e p r o b a b l y t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t . A l t h o u g h o n l y two househo lds had c r o p was tes a v a i l a b l e f o r w e i g h i n g , s e v e n t y - e i g h t o t h e r s c l a i m e d t h a t t h e y made use o f them. Crop was tes s e r v e as a seasona l supp lemen t t o s h r i n k i n g wood s u p p l i e s and a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r r o u g h l y two t o t h r e e months p e r y e a r . F o r t h i s reason , t h e f i g u r e s l i s t e d i n T a b l e 5 .5 , w h i c h i s based on t h e assumpt ion t h a t c r o p was tes a r e a v a i l a b l e a l l yea r- round , were d i v i d e d b y f o u r t o g i v e t h e f i g u r e used f o r t h e e n e r g y- a c c o u n t i n g purposes. However, c r o p was tes a r e n o t l i s t e d i n T a b l e 5 .4 as t h e e s t i m a t e i s based on t o o few sample p o i n t s .

The o t h e r two f u e l s consumed i n t h e r u r a l s e c t o r , LP gas and c o a l , a r e r e 1 a t i v e l y i n s i g n i f i c a n t . The househo lds u s i n g c o a l were a l l w o r k e r s on a commerc ia l f a r m where t h e employer p r o v i d e d t h e f u e l . The househo ld u s i n g gas g e n e r a l l y used i t f o r c o o k i n g , a l t h o u g h r e f r i g e r a t o r s can o c c a s i o n a l l y be f o u n d i n r u r a l a reas . I n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e , wood w i l l r e m a i n t h e m a j o r r u r a l f u e l , even though p a r a f f i n , LP gas and even e l e c t r i c i t y may assume more i m p o r t a n c e i n s e l e c t e d a reas .

Another p o i n t worth mentioning i s t h e r e s u l t of one of t h e open-ended q u e s t i o n s on t h e survey. S i x t y - f i v e percen t of t h e households in te rv iewed r e l i e d p r i m a r i l y on wood because i t was r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e . Another s i x t e e n p e r c e n t of t h e households claimed t h a t they used wood a s t h e i r primary fue l because they had no o t h e r a l t e r n a t i v e s . In o t h e r words, r u r a l households s t i l l have no a l t e r n a t i v e t o fuelwood t o supply t h e i r domestic cooking requi rements . As wood becomes i n c r e a s i n g l y s c a r c e , women, who c o l l e c t wood i n about 80 percen t of t h e households, must spend a g r e a t e r p o r t i o n of t h e i r time engaged i n wood-gathering a c t i v i t i e s . Less of t h e i r time w i l l be a v a i l a b l e t o spend on o t h e r , perhaps more produc t ive work.

Urban Household Energy Consumption.

Households i n t h e urban a r e a s have fue l requirements t h a t a r e s imi l a r t o those of r u r a l households. B u t urban households have a l a r g e r s e t of o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e t o them as well as a g r e a t e r degree of access t o wage employment. As a r e s u l t , the energy consumption p a t t e r n s a r e s i m i l a r , bu t more d i v e r s e than those of t h e i r r u r a l c o u n t e r p a r t s . According t o e s t i m a t e s i n Table 5 .4 , urban households account f o r roughly 4 percen t of a l l of t h e energy used i n Zimbabwe i n 1980. The f i g u r e s i n Table 5.4 r e f l e c t t h e g r e a t e r d i v e r s i t y of f u e l s used by urban households. E l e c t r i c i t y , L P gas , p a r a f f i n , and coal a l l play r o l e s t h a t a r e re1 a t i v e l y more s i g n i f i c a n t t o urban households than they a r e t o r u r a l ones. On t h e o t h e r hand, wood i s a l e s s s i g n i f i c a n t f u e l i n t h e urban a r e a s , because of i t s l i m i t e d a v a i l a b i l i t y and higher p r i c e .

Table 5 .6 p r e s e n t s d a t a summarizing urban household consumption taken from t h e same survey a s t h e information i n Table 5 . 5 . The urban p o r t i o n of t h e survey was undertaken in Gweru, Mutare and Chitungwiza. In each c a s e , t h e random sample was s t r a t i f i e d according t o r e n t l eve1 S , and households were s e l e c t e d from each neighbourhood according t o t h e percentage of t h e c i t y ' s popula t ion l i v i n g i n each housing type. The f u e l s used by t h e households surveyed were wood, c o a l , p a r a f f i n , LP gas and e l e c t r i c i t y .

Wood i s s t i l l impor tan t t o urban households, bu t n o t n e a r l y a s impor tan t a s i t i s i n r u r a l a r e a s . There a r e two reasons f o r t h i s . F i r s t , i t i s no t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e i n t h e township a r e a s and must be purchased from a wood-vendor. Masambani (1981) has examined t h e workings of t h e wood market i n township a r e a s around Harare ( S a l i s b u r y ) . His work shows t h a t wood can be t r a n s p o r t e d from a s f a r away a s 200 k m . Thus, Zimbabwe provides an unusual case i n t h e African c o n t e x t . Wood i s g e n e r a l l y no t economical ly t r a n s p o r t a b l e f o r more than 50 t o 100 k m . For d i s t a n c e s g r e a t e r than t h a t , charcoal i s produced, B u t t h e work of Masambani (1981) and Hosier (4983) have shown very l i t t l e o r no charcoai consumption i n t h e c i t i e s . Since charcoal i s no t used, t h e wood

TABLE 5.6

Urban Energy Survey: Average Fuel Consumption For Households Using F u e l .

Income Group N Wood Coal P a r a f f i n Gas E l e c t r i c i t y

TOTAL 180 4831.0 (70) 1334.7 ( 3 ) 160.48 (79) 97.8 ( 2 ) 5122.9 (30)

Note: The households i n c l u d e d under e l e c t r i c i t y here were o n l y those hav ing metered s e r v i c e . Another 103 households surveyed had l o a d - l i m i t e d , unmetered s e r v i c e , p redominan t l y f o r l i g h t i n g .

t h a t i s t r a n s p o r t e d i s e x p e n s i v e as a r e s u l t o f t h e t r a n s p o r t c o s t s . As a consequence, i t s consumpt ion i s d i scou raged . The second f a c t o r e n c o u r a g i n g househo lds t o move away f r o m wood as a f u e l sou rce i s i t s r e l a t i v e i n c o n v e n i e n c e t o use. The combus t i on o f wood p roduces smoke w h i c h can have n e g a t i v e h e a l t h i n f l u e n c e s . Fewer weal t h y househo lds use wood as a r e s u l t . I t i s more c o n v e n i e n t f o r them t o cook w i t h p a r a f f i n o r e l e c t r i c i t y .

I n g e n e r a l , t h e h i g h e r income househo lds t h a t use wood consume more t h a n t h e i r l o w e r income c o u n t e r p a r t s . B u t f e w e r h i g h income househo lds use wood, as t h e y t e n d t o consume a pe t ro leum- based f u e l o r e l e c t r i c i t y f o r m o s t o f t h e i r domes t i c ene rgy r e q u i r e m e n t s . The househo lds t h a t do use wood t e n d t o use l e s s o f i t t h a n do r u r a l househo lds because i t can no l o n g e r be g a t h e r e d b u t m u s t be purchased. As Masambani (1981) no tes , a f f o r e s t a t i o n schemes d e s i g n e d t o s e r v i c e t h e needs o f t h e u rban m a r k e t a r e n e c e s s a r y t o p r e v e n t a f u r t h e r d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s f o r l o w income u rban d w e l l e r s .

P a r a f f i n ' s r o l e i n t h e u rban a reas i s d i f f e r e n t t h a n i n t h e r u r a l a reas . I n t h e r u r a l a reas, i t was p r i m a r i l y used f o r l i g h t i n g . I n t h e u r b a n a r e a s surveyed, i t i s l a r g e l y a c o o k i n g f u e l t h a t does d o u b l e d u t y f o r l i g h t i n g . T h i s means t h a t f ewer househo lds use p a r a f f i n (44% o f t o t a l ) , b u t t h o s e t h a t do, use a g r e a t dea l more o f i t . F o r m o s t househo lds , p a r a f f i n i s a c l e a n e r , more c o n v e n i e n t f u e l f o r c o o k i n g t h a n wood i s , and i t r e p r e s e n t s a t r a n s i t i o n a l f u e l between a b s o l u t e wood-dependency and t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y r e 1 i ance.

E l e c t r i c i t y i s an i m p o r t a n t domes t i c f u e l i n t h e u rban a reas . Of t h e househo lds surveyed, o v e r one- hundred and t h i r t y o f them (73%) used e l e c t r i c i t y f o r one o r a number o f end-uses. Most o f t h e s e househo l ds have a l o a d - l i m i t e d e l e c t r i c i t y c o n n e c t i o n , whereby f o r a f i x e d m o n t h l y r a t e t h e c i r c u i t r y i s connec ted t o a l o w amperage c i r c u i t b r e a k e r . I f more t h a n t h e a l l o t e d amount o f c u r r e n c y i s used a t any p o i n t i n t ime , t h e e l e c t r i c i t y s h u t s o f f , t h u s l i m i t i n g t h e e l e c t r i c i t y t h a t can be consumed b y t h e s e househo lds . The consumpt ion o f such househo lds i s l e s s t h a n f o r t h e me te red househo lds . Househo lds t h a t have me te red s e r v i c e used on average o f o v e r 5000 kwh p e r y e a r . Again, h i g h e r income househo lds own ing more a p p l i a n c e s t e n d t o use two t o t h r e e t i m e s more e l e c t r i c i t y t h a n do l o w e r income househo lds . T h i s p a t t e r n wou ld i n d i c a t e t h a t domes t i c use o f e l e c t r i c i t y w i l l c o n t i n u e t o i n c r e a s e as i n d i v i d u a l incomes r i s e and as t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n sys tern expands.

Coal and LP gas a r e b o t h used i n u r b a n areas, b u t t o a v e r y l i m i t e d degree. The combus t i on o f c o a l p roduces ca rbon monoxide, mak ing i t dangerous t o use i n e n c l o s e d a reas . LP gas i s n o t dangerous, b u t b o t t l e s a r e o f t e n i n s h o r t s u p p l y as w e l l as b e i n g cumbersome t o t r a n s p o r t . F o r t h e s e reasons, i t i s n o t c l e a r t h a t t h e consumpt ion o f e i t h e r w i l l i n c r e a s e r a p i d l y i n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e .

I n d u s t r i a l Energy Consumption.

A f t e r t h e domes t i c s e c t o r , t h e second m o s t e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e s e c t o r o f t h e economy i s t h e i n d u s t r i a l one. M i n i n g and m a n u f a c t u r i n g combined accoun t f o r n e a r l y twen ty- seven p e r c e n t o f a l l t h e ene rgy consumed i n Zimbabwe, and o v e r f i f t y p e r c e n t o f a1 l commerci a1 e n e r g y consumed. As m i n i n g and i n d u s t r i a1 a c t i v i t i e s accoun t f o r o v e r t h i r t y p e r c e n t o f GDP, t h e y a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and v i t a l p o r t i o n s o f t h e economy whose h e a l t h depends upon a s t a b l e s u p p l y o f ene rgy . T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l d i s c u s s t h e consumpt ion o f e n e r g y i n t h e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r . The f i r s t p o r t i o n w i l l f o c u s on ene rgy consumpt ion among m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r i e s . The d i s c u s s i o n w i l l t h e n move t o t h e consumpt ion p a t t e r n s o f t h e mi n i n g and e x t r a c t i o n i n d u s t r i e s . The f i n a l p o r t i o n o f t h i s s e c t i o n w i l l d i s c u s s e n e r g y consumpt ion i n t h e commerc ia l and i n f o r m a l s e c t o r s o f t h e economy.

M a n u f a c t u r i n g I n d u s t r y .

As has a l r e a d y been i n d i c a t e d , t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r a l o n e accoun ts f o r r o u g h l y t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f GDP. T h i s a t t e s t s t o t h e s t r o n g economic d i v e r s i t y encoun te red i n t h e Zimbabwean economy. The m a n u f a c t u r i n g c a p a c i t y i s one o f t h e l a r g e s t i n Sub-Saharan A f r i c a . I t i s s t r o n g l y l i n k e d t o t h e o t h e r two m a j o r s e c t o r s o f t h e economy: a g r i c u l t u r e and m i n i n g .

Of t h e s u b s e c t o r s d e l i n e a t e d w i t h i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i ng s e c t o r , f o o d p r o d u c t s composed t h e l a r g e s t p o r t i o n o f va lue- added, f o l l o w e d b y i r o n and s t e e l , chemica l and n o n - e l e c t r i c mach ine ry , c o t t o n - g i n n i n g , t e x t i l e s , d r i n k and tobacco. As can be seen from t h i s l i s t , mos t o f t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g i s l i n k e d t o t h e p r i m a r y p r o d u c t i o n f o u n d w i t h i n t h e economy (MEPD, 1 9 8 1 ) . S i n c e 1964, t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s u b s e c t o r s t h a t have e x p e r i e n c e d t h e g r e a t e s t g r o w t h a r e t e x t i l e s , m e t a l and me ta l p r o d u c t s , f o o d s t u f f s and chemica l p r o d u c t s .

I n h i s r e v i e w o f Zimbabwe m a n u f a c t u r i n g , W i e l d (1981) p o i n t s t o two f a c e t s o f t h e Zimbabwean m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y t h a t a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y r e l e v a n t t o a d i s c u s s i o n o f e n e r g y consumpt ion. The f i r s t i s t h a t a f t e r U D I , t h e r e were v i r t u a l l y no p r o d u c t i v i t y g a i n s i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r . W i e l d a t t r i b u t e s t h i s t o t h e p resence o f excess c a p a c i t y b e i n g used i n an i n a p p r o p r i a t e manner, t h e e x p a n s i o n o f l a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e i n v e s t m e n t , and t h e g e n e r a l l y l o w - l e v e l s o f c a p a c i t y u t i l i z a t i o n f o l l o w i n g 1974. T h i s t r e n d appears t o c a r r y o v e r t o e n e r g y p r o d u c t i v i t y . W h i l e ene rgy consumpt ion i n t h e economy as a who le has i n c r e a s e d a t an average compound g r o w t h r a t e o f 3 . 2 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r f r o m 1970 t o 1979, e n e r g y consumpt ion i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r has i n c r e a s e d a t a r a t e o f 5 . 8 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r ( I B R D , 1 9 8 2 ) . D u r i n g t h e same t i m e p e r i o d , t h e v01 ume o f i n d u s t r i a l p r o d u c t i o n i n c r e a s e d a t an average compound g r o w t h r a t e o f s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n 3 . 8 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r . I n o t h e r words, t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r i s a c t u a l l y

p r o d u c i n g l e s s p e r u n i t o f ene rgy consumed t h a n i t was i n 1970. T h i s c o u l d v e r y p o s s i b l y be l i n k e d t o t h e second p o i n t r a i s e d b y Wie ld .

As a r e s u l t o f t h e s a n c t i o n s and i m p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s d u r i n g UDI, l i t t l e o r no mach ine ry was i m p o r t e d d u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d . The mach ine ry o p e r a t i n g i n many s e c t o r s i s o u t d a t e d and beyond r e p a i r , w h i c h means t h a t i t o p e r a t e s a t l e s s t h a n o p t i m a l e f f i c i e n c y . T h i s i s a p rob lem t o be found t h r o u g h o u t t h e Zimbabwean economy. Ou tda ted and run-down mach ine ry needs t o be r e p l a c e d b e f o r e ene rgy e f f i c i e n c y can be improved. Energy consumpt ion i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r c e n t e r s on two ene rgy s u p p l i e s - c o a l and e l e c t r i c i t y . Coal s u p p l i e s abou t seven ty p e r c e n t o f t h e ene rgy used i n m a n u f a c t u r i n g and e l e c t r i c i t y accoun ts f o r a n o t h e r t w e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t . T h i s m i x r e f l e c t s t h e impor tance o f t h e me ta l p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s i n t h e f u e l consumpt ion p a t t e r n s o f t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r . Given Zimbabwe's n a t u r a l c o a l endowments, t h e s e n s i b l e d i r e c t i o n f o r i n d u s t r y t o move i n i s t oward i n c r e a s e d s u b s t i t u t i o n o f c o a l f o r e l e c t r i c i t y f o r p rocess hea t , whenever p o s s i b l e .

The Wor ld Bank M i s s i o n r e v i e w e d ene rgy e f f i c i e n c y i n t h e m a n u f a c t u r i n g s e c t o r and f o u n d t h a t ene rgy i n t e n s i t y o f p r o d u c t i o n i n f e r t i l i z e r , me ta l and m i n e r a l p r o d u c t i o n i s h i g h . Upon r e v i e w i n g t h e seven l a r g e s t energy- consuming m a n u f a c t u r i n g p l a n t s , t h e Wor ld Bank M i s s i o n (IBRD, 1982) found t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y consumpt ion i n t h e s e p l a n t s c o u l d be reduced b y r o u g h l y f i f t y p e r c e n t f o r an annual s a v i n g o f 2847.3 m i l l i o n . These improvements, such as t h e c o n v e r s i o n t o a c o a l - based e l e c t r o l y t i c hydrogen p l a n t and t h e rep lacemen t o f o u t d a t e d g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s , wou ld c o s t around 28319.3 m i l l i o n . These improvements a r e c o s t l y , and do n o t seem f e a s i b l e g i v e n c u r r e n t i n t e r e s t r a t e s . However, Wor ld Bank M i s s i o n (IBRD 1982, p67) d i d sugges t t h a t t h e s e improvements be c o n s i d e r e d because t h e y w i l l become more a t t r a c t i v e i n t h e f a c e o f r i s i n g ene rgy c o s t s and an economic t a r i f f scheme f o r e l e c t r i c i t y , i n s t e a d o f an h i s t o r i c a l l y-based one.

M i n i n g I n d u s t r y .

Zimbabwe has a we1 l - d i v e r s i f i e d m i n e r a l r e s o u r c e base. I t produces s i g n i f i c a n t q u a n t i t i e s o f s i x m i n e r a l S, and s m a l l e r q u a n t i t i e s o f some t h i r t y o t h e r s . I n 1980, t h e v a l u e o f t hese s i x m a j o r p r o d u c t s - g o l d , asbestos, n i c k e l , copper , c o a l and chrome - accounted f o r n e a r l y e i g h t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f t h e o v e r 28400 m i l l i o n ea rned b y t h e s e c t o r . I r o n o r e accoun ted f o r ano the r f o u r p e r c e n t o f t h i s t o t a l . The m i n i n g and q u a r r y i n g s e c t o r accounted f o r r o u g h l y e i g h t p e r c e n t o f GDP i n 1980 and c o n s t i t u t e d o v e r f o r t y p e r c e n t o f a l l e x p o r t s . I t i s , t h e r e f o r e , a s i g n i f i c a n t s e c t o r o f t h e economy whose o u t p u t has grown b y o v e r e i g h t y p e r c e n t s i n c e 1964.

To leave the d iscuss ions a t t h i s l e v e l would g i v e an inadequate p i c t u r e o f Zimbabwe's m i n i n g i n d u s t r y . By and l a r g e , t h e i n d u s t r y i s c o n t r o l l e d by l a r g e , mu1 t i n a t i o n a l f i r m s and serves a fo re ign , n o t a domestic, market . The i n d u s t r y i s , the re fo re , s u b j e c t t o the f l u c t u a t i o n s o f the i n t e r n a t i o n a l markets f o r m inera l S . Whi le go1 d p r o d u c t i o n inc reased between 1980 and 1981, t h e va lue o f the o u t p u t f e l l by n e a r l y 20 percent . A d d i t i o n a l l y , Stoneman (1981) has argued t h a t wage d i s c r i m i n a t i o n w i t h i n the s e c t o r i s p robab ly more obvious than i n any o t h e r sec to r , as wages a re lower than those i n b o t h t h e r e s t o f the economy and i n the m i n i n g s e c t o r i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y South A f r i c a . I n s h o r t , the m i n i n g s e c t o r i n Zimbabwe i s c o n t r o l l e d by and serves p redomina te ly f o r e i g n i n t e r e s t s . The recen t1 y - c r e a t e d Minera l s Marke t ing Board has a l a r g e r o l e t o p1 ay i n the f u t u r e development d i r e c t i o n s o f t h i s s e c t o r .

Wi th r e f e r e n c e t o energy consumption, t h e m in ing i n d u s t r y consumes r o u g h l y f i v e percen t o f a l l t h e energy u t i l i z e d i n 1980, r a n k i n g beh ind t h e domestic, manufactur ing, t r a n s p o r t and a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r s . As i n manufactur ing, most o f t h i s energy i s e i t h e r i n t h e fo rm o f coal o r e l e c t r i c i t y . O f the 233 thousand tons o f coa l used by t h e m in ing i n d u s t r y , 112 thousand o f those were used by Wankie C o l l i e r y , the owner o f the coal mines, f o r t h e i r own power g e n e r a t i o n and t h e i r employee's use. The remainder i s s p l i t between t h e o t h e r m i n i n g s e c t o r s . The e l e c t r i c i t y goes m a i n l y t o suppor t l a r g e r - s c a l e m in ing es tab l i shments , as the sma l le r o p e r a t o r s have l i t t l e access t o l a r g e machinery. The consumption o f energy by the m i n i n g sec to r w i l l c o n t i n u e t o inc rease as the s e c t o r ' s growth cont inues. However, i t must be remembered t h a t the s e c t o r ' s growth i s d i r e c t 1 y l i n k e d t o the i n t e r n a t i o n a l commodity markets, un less some a c t i o n can be taken t o s t a b i l i z e p r o d u c t i o n and make i t l e s s v u l n e r a b l e t o the w i l d f l u c t u a t i o n s o f commodity t r a d i n g .

Other I n d u s t r i e s .

Other I n d u s t r i e s t h a t have n o t been mentioned so f a r i n c l u d e c o n s t r u c t i o n , r e t a i l sa les, f i n a n c i a l s e r v i c e s and o t h e r s e r v i c e a c t i v i t i e s . A l though these a c t i v i t i e s do make a s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o GDP, they are n o t major energy consumers. As a r e s u l t , they have n o t been l i s t e d i n d i v i d u a l l y i n Table 5 . 4 . Apar t f rom the c u r r e n t l u l l i n the b u i l d i n g , r e a l e s t a t e and c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s , which are l i n k e d c l o s e l y t o i n t e r e s t r a t e s , energy consumption i n these o t h e r commercial i n d u s t r i e s w i l l remain a r e l a t i v e l y small p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l , and w i l l most l i k e l y grow as t h e r e s t o f the economy grows. An excep t ion t o t h i s r u l e o f thumb may be found i n t h e i n f o r m a l sec to r . The i n f o r m a l s e c t o r i s a co l l e c t i o n o f smal l - s c a l e producers s e r v i c i n g t h e subs is tence needs o f t h e low-income urban household. Research i n t o the in formal s e c t o r i n Kenya has shown t h a t i n f o r m a l s e c t o r f i r m s consume r e 1 a t i v e l y small amounts o f

e n e r g y p e r u n i t o f o u t p u t . However, g i v e n t h e l e v e l o f c o n t r o l t h a t was m a i n t a i n e d o v e r r u r a l t o u r b a n m i g r a t i o n and t h e l a c k o f s u p p o r t g i v e n t o economic a c t i v i t i e s i n r u r a l a reas unde r t h e p r e v i o u s reg ime , t h e r e may be a boom i n i n f o r m a l s e c t o r a c t i v i t i e s o v e r t h e n e x t s e v e r a l y e a r s . A1 though such g r o w t h w o u l d p r o b a b l y n o t have much o f an i m p a c t on i n c r e a s i n g t h e demand f o r commerc ia l f u e l s , i t may be an i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r a c c o u n t i n g f o r an i n c r e a s e i n t h e demand f o r w o o d f u e l . A t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be p a i d t o m o n i t o r i n g a c t i v i t y l e v e l s i n t h i s s e c t o r and t o e n s u r i n g t h a t an adequate f u e l s u p p l y i s m a i n t a i n e d f o r wha teve r i n f o r m a l s e c t o r a c t i v i t i e s may a r i s e .

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n .

A c c o r d i n g t o t h e e s t i m a t e s i n T a b l e 5.4, t h e n e x t mos t i m p o r t a n t e n e r g y consumer i s t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r . Road, r a i l and a i r t r a n s p o r t t o g e t h e r a c c o u n t f o r a l i t t l e o v e r e l e v e n p e r c e n t o f a l l e n e r g y consumed i n 1980. Road t r a n s p o r t , w h i c h i n c l u d e s b o t h government and p r i v a t e v e h i c l e s , accoun ted f o r t h e l a r g e s t s h a r e o f f u e l consumed b y t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r . Over 1 .2 m i l l i o n b a r r e l s o f p e t r o l were p u t o u t t o d i s t r i b u t o r s f o r s a l e t o p r i v a t e v e h i c l e s . R e t a i l s a l e s o f gas, o i l o r d i e s e l accoun t f o r o v e r 300 thousand b a r r e l s . Government-owned v e h i c l e s consumed 1 7 9 thousand b a r r e l s o f p e t r o l and 430 thousand b a r r e l s o f d i e s e l . Toge the r t h e y a c c o u n t f o r o v e r 99 p e r c e n t o f a l l p e t r o l consumed and 56 p e r c e n t o f d i e s e l consumed. The rema inde r o f t h e p e t r o l and d i e s e l f u e l t h a t i s i m p o r t e d i s consumed b y t h e r a i l w a y s . T h i s p o i n t s t o t h e f a c t t h a t i f t h e r e l i a n c e on i m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m f u e l s i s t o be reduced, t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r i s t h e o b v i o u s p1 ace t o do i t . As i s t h e case w i t h so many economic d e c i s i o n s , t h i s i s more e a s i e r s a i d t h a n done.

The o b s t a c l e t o t h e more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n o f pe t ro leum- based f u e l s i n t h e a rea o f r o a d t r a n s p o r t has t o do w i t h t h e age and c o n d i t i o n o f t h e v e h i c l e f l e e t . Few v e h i c l e s have been i m p o r t e d s i n c e UDI due t o s a n c t i o n s and i m p o r t r e s t r i c t i o n s . T h i s means t h a t t h e e x i s t i n g v e h i c l e s a r e o l d and do n o t o p e r a t e a t peak e f f i c i e n c y . The r e p l e n i s h i n g o f t h e p r i v a t e v e h i c l e f l e e t can o n l y t a k e p1 ace o v e r many y e a r s due t o f o r e i g n exchange and c a p i t a l sho r tages . As t h i s p rocess t a k e s p l a c e , a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be p a i d t o t h e w e i g h t , s i z e and f u e l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e v e h i c l e s t h a t a r e i m p o r t e d , t o ensu re t h a t t h e r e p l e n i s h m e n t r e s u l t s i n a more e f f i c i e n t f l e e t . The r e p 1 acement o f government v e h i c l e s can be more c a r e f u l l y c o n t r o l l e d t o e n s u r e t h e improved e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e o p e r a t i n g f l e e t . D i e s e l has a l r e a d y r e p l a c e d p e t r o l as t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t l i q u i d f u e l i n t h e economy, and i t s consumpt ion i s l i a b l e t o c o n t i n u e g r o w i n g more r a p i d l y t h a n t h a t o f p e t r o l i n t h e immed ia te f u t u r e .

The N a t i o n a l R a i l w a y s o f Zimbabwe have resumed t h e i r p re- independence l e v e l s o f a c t i v i t y . A l t h o u g h t h e number o f

passengers c a r r i e d i n 1980 (991,000) was be low t h e r e c o r d h i g h o f 3.2 m i l l i o n i n 1973, t h e n e t f r e i g h t t r a f f i c r eached an a l l - t i m e h i g h i n 1980 o f 6 .9 thousand m i l l i o n n e t t onne k i l o m e t e r s . The r a i l w a y s a r e t h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t f o r m o f f r e i g h t t r a n s p o r t i n Zimbabwe. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e y s u f f e r f r o m t h e same prob lems as does t h e v e h i c l e f l e e t . I n e a r l y 1981 (MFP, 19821, o n l y 130 o f t h e e x i s t i n g 275 l o c o m o t i v e s were f u n c t i o n a l . Seve ra l o f t hese a r e no l o n g e r r e p a i r a b l e due t o ex t reme age o r l a c k o f p a r t s u p p l i e s . A number o f new e n g i n e s a r e expec ted f r o m N o r t h Amer ican m a n u f a c t u r e r s , b u t t h e s e w i l l be d i e s e l f u e l ed l o c o m o t i v e s , even though e i t h e r c o a l o r e l e c t r i f i e d o p t i o n s wou ld seem more e c o n o m i c a l l y a p p r o p r i a t e . The SADCC t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n s c a l l f o r t h e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n o f t h e r a i l r o a d t h r o u g h t o B e i r a as w e l l as t h e o v e r a l l expans ion o f r a i l t r a n s p o r t t h r o u g h o u t t h e r e g i o n . A l t h o u g h t h i s w i l l l e a d t o a more r a t i o n a l use o f e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s , a g r e a t dea l o f c a p i t a l w i l l be r e q u i r e d t o comp le te t h e c o n v e r s i o n .

F i n a l l y , a i r t r a n s p o r t accoun ts f o r t h e smal l e s t pe rcen tage o f l i q u i d f u e l s o f any segment o f t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r . L i k e t h e s i t u a t i o n i n r a i l t r a f f i c , passenger t r a f f i c on A i r Zimbabwe reached 389 thousand passengers i n 1980 (426 thousand i n 1981), a l e v e l t h a t i s be low t h e 1975 h i g h o f 452 thousand passengers . However, t h e t o t a l l o a d t o n n e- k i l ometers f l o w n was h i g h e r i n 1980 ( 3 3 . 1 m i l l i o n t o n n e / k i l o m e t e r s ) , a l e v e l su rpassed o n l y by t h e a i r t r a f f i c f o r 1981 (51 .4 m i l l i o n t o n n e- k i l o m e t e r s ) . As t h e t o u r i s t i n d u s t r y grows and a i r t r a f f i c between t h e SADCC member c o u n t r i e s grows, t h e l e v e l o f a i r t r a f f i c w i l l no d o u b t i n c r e a s e , r e q u i r i n g more pe t ro leum- based a v i a t i o n f u e l s . The expans ion o f A i r Zimbabwe's f l e e t w i l l l e a d t o h i g h e r l e v e l s o f a v i a t i o n f u e l consumpt ion i n t h e f u t u r e .

A g r i c u l t u r e .

The a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r i s p o s s i b l y t h e mos t s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f Zimbabwe's economy. N e a r l y s e v e n t y - f i v e p e r c e n t o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i s d i r e c t l y dependent upon a g r i c u l t u r e f o r t h e i r l i v e l i hood (Stoneman, 1981, p . 1 2 7 ) . A g r i c u l t u r e accoun ted f o r r o u g h l y 14 p e r c e n t o f GDP i n 1980 mak ing i t t h i r d i n impor tance a f t e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g and commerc ia l a c t i v i t i e s ( d i s t r i b u t i o n , h o t e l s and r e s t a u r a n t s ) . I n te rms o f e n e r g y consumpt ion, t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r accoun ts f o r 7 .5 p e r c e n t o f t h e ene rgy consumed on a n a t i o n a l b a s i s .

Zimbabwe's a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r can be d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e s u b s e c t o r s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e t y p e s of l a n d e s t a b l i s h e d i n t h e Land Tenure A c t o f 1969. T a b l e 5 . 7 g i v e s a breakdown o f t h e l a n d , p o p u l a t i o n and p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y i n each c a t e g o r y f o r 1979. T h i s t a b ? e r e f l e c t s t h e i n e q u i t i e s t h a t e x i s t i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r . The commerc ia l f a r m i n g a reas have t h e b e s t q u a l i t y l a n d , w i t h t h e l o w e s t p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y and y e t c u l t i v a t e o n l y 3.6 p e r c e n t o f wha t i s owned. Farmers i n t h e communal a reas have t h e

TABLE 5.7

Agricul tural Sector S t a t i s t i c s

Commercial Areas Purchase Areas Communal Areas

l a t i o n : Total 1,049,900 128,600 4,066,000

B1 ack 1,013,000 125,800 4,066,000

White 36,900 2,800 - -

Area 15,600,000 1,500,000 16,200,000

Cul t i v a t e d 575,000 90,000 2,500,000

ares Per Person 14.9 11.7 4.0

c e : Stoneman, 1981, p . 136

l o w e s t q u a l i t y l a n d , t h e h i g h e s t p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t i e s and c u l t i v a t e 15 .4 p e r c e n t o f t h e l a n d . These i n e q u a l i t i e s a r e made even more s t r i k i n g when i t i s t aken i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h a t t h e communal areas a r e o v e r p o p u l a t e d b y a t l e a s t 85 p e r c e n t i n r e 1 a t i o n t o t h e i r e c o l o g i c a l c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y (Stoneman, 1981, p. 1 3 3 ) . Any r e s e t t l e m e n t programme w i l l have t o make m a j o r changes i n t h e sys tem t o ba lance o u t p a s t i n e q u i t i e s .

Given t h i s d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l a n d , i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t t h e consumpt ion o f commercial ene rgy s h o u l d r e f l e c t t h i s p a t t e r n . The a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r consumed 226,000 tonnes o f wood i n 1980, a l o n g w i t h 288,000 tonnes o f c o a l , 563,000 b a r r e l s o f d i e s e l and 500 GWh o f e l e c t r i c i t y . S m a l l e r q u a n t i t i e s o f o t h e r f u e l s were a l s o consumed. N e a r l y a l l o f t h i s ene rgy i s consumed b y commercial a g r i c u l t u r e . The wood and c o a l a r e used f o r d r y i n g c rops , t h e d i e s e l i s used f o r power ing mach ine ry , and t h e e l e c t r i c i t y i s used f o r domest ic purposes and pumping i r r i g a t i o n w a t e r . L i t t l e i n a n i m a t e ene rgy i s used b y fa rmers i n t h e communal areas due t o f i n a n c i a1 r e s t r i c t i o n s .

D e s p i t e t h e s e r e 1 a t i v e advantages, many commerci a1 farms c o u l d e x i s t o n l y on t h e b a s i s o f government s u b s i d i e s . Large r e s e t t l e m e n t p1 ans were i n c l u d e d i n t h e Z imcord agreements, and t h e government i s p r o c e e d i n g w i t h these, even though f i n a n c e s a r e a b i n d i n g c o n s t r a i n t . A t t h i s p o i n t , i t bears r e p e a t i n g t h a t l a n d r e f o r m i s a p o l i c y f o r r e c t i f y i n g i n e q u i t i e s , b u t more i m p o r t a n t l y f o r t h e d i scusson here, i t i s a techn ique f o r s u b s t i t u t i n g l a b o u r f o r l and, c a p i t a l , and t h e r e f o r e , i n a n i m a t e energy, i n t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n . P o s t l and- re fo rm a g r i c u l t u r e makes more tho rough use o f t h e l a n d b y i n c r e a s i n g t h e i n t e n s i t y o f l a b o u r i n p u t s i n t o t h e p r o d u c t i o n p rocess . T h e r e f o r e , p o s t - l and- re fo rm a g r i c u l t u r e i s l i a b l e t o be l e s s e n e r g y - i n t e n s i v e due t o t h e decrease i n t h e use o f mach ine ry than p r e - l and- re fo rm a g r i c u l t u r e . As t h e r e s e t t l e m e n t process c o n t i n u e s , t h e consumpt ion o f commercial f u e l s f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l purposes wou ld be expec ted t o decrease. However, c a r e must be taken t o see t h a t r e s e t t l e m e n t areas have s u f f i c i e n t wood s u p p l i e s f o r t h e needs o f t h e r e s e t t l e d f a m i l i e s . S ince many r e s e t t l e d households w i l l n o t be a b l e t o a f f o r d t h e e l e c t r i c i t y and commercial f u e l t h a t t h e i r p redecesso rs d i d , wood w i l l r ema in i m p o r t a n t i n t h e s e a reas . The r e s e t t l e m e n t p1 ans as w r i t t e n c a l l f o r t h e e s t a b l i shmen t o f wood lo ts i n r e s e t t l e d a reas . A1 l e f f o r t s s h o u l d be made t o see t h a t t h i s p o r t i o n o f t h e r e s e t t l e m e n t p l a n does n o t f a l l b y t h e ways ide.

ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCE.

The p r e c e e d i ng s e c t i o n documented t h e p r e s e n t and p r o b a b l e f u t u r e ene rgy consumpt ion r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e m a j o r s e c t o r s o f t h e Zimbabwean economy. T h i s was done i n t h e b e l i e f t h a t o n l y b y

f i r s t u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h e ene rgy r e q u i r e m e n t s o f an economy can those r e q u i r e m e n t s be a d e q u a t e l y met . T h i s s e c t i o n w i l l l o o k a t t h e s u p p l y end o f t h e spect rum t o see wha t t h e p r e s e n t sou rces o f ene rgy s u p p l y a re , as w e l l as wha t t h e r e l e v a n t concerns r e g a r d i n g ene rgy s u p p l y a r e l i a b l e t o be. I t w i l l b e g i n w i t h a d i s c u s s i o n o f prob lems o f f ue lwood s u p p l y as i t i s s t i l l t h e most i m p o r t a n t f u e l i n t h e Zimbabwe energy accoun ts . The d i s c u s s i o n w i l l t h e n address t h e s u p p l i e s o f c o a l , p e t r o l e u m f u e l s , and e l e c t r i c i t y t h a t a r e p r e s e n t l y u t i l i z e d w i t h an eye toward wha t a c t i o n s , i f any, w i l l have t o be taken t o ensu re t h e c o n t i n u i t y o f s u p p l y i n t h e f u t u r e .

Wood Suppl i e s .

The c o n t i n u e d s u p p l y o f s u f f i c i e n t q u a n t i t i e s o f f ue lwood i s i m p o r t a n t t o t h e f u t u r e o f t h e Zimbabwean economy. As was argued i n t h e p r e c e d i n g s e c t i o n , wood i s t h e g r e a t e s t s u p p l i e r o f f u e l t o t h e economy i n g e n e r a l , and t o t h e household s e c t o r i n p a r t i c u l a r . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , any assessment o f t h e n a t i o n ' s f ue lwood s u p p l i e s i s rough, as i n s u f f i c i e n t r e s e a r c h has been done i n t o t h i s t o p i c i n t h e p a s t . A1 though numerous e s t i m a t e s e x i s t , t h e d i s c u s s i o n h e r e w i l l f o c u s on t h e f i g u r e s g i v e n t o t h e Wor ld Bank M i s s i o n by Furness o f t h e F o r e s t r y Commission (IBRD, 1982) . A s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t s e t o f f i g u r e s can be f o u n d i n t h e work o f t h e Whi t s u n Founda t ion (1982) .

The v e g e t a t i o n c o v e r i n g much o f Zimbabwe's s u r f a c e a r e a i s composed l a r g e l y o f savannah grass1 ands and mi ombo woodl and. R a i n f a l l i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o s u p p o r t t h e t r o p i c a l r a i n f o r e s t f o u n d i n t h e more e q u a t o r i a l c o u n t r i e s i n A f r i c a . As a r e s u l t , wood s u p p l i e s a r e more l i m i t e d t h a n i n o t h e r p a r t s o f t h e d e v e l o p i n g w 3 r l d. P r o d u c t i v i t y o f n a t u r a l v e g e t a t i o n s tands a t abou t 1 . 3 m p e r h e c t a r e , a f i g u r e s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n one tonne p e r h e c t a r e . I n some a reas t h i s p r o d u c t i v i t y i s t o o l o w t o s u p p o r t t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g i n t h e s u r r o u n d i n g areas. I n n e a r l y 70% o f t h e communal areas, t h e p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y exceeds t h e n a t u r a l c a r r y i n g c a p a c i t y o f t h e l a n d , r e s u l t i n g i n e x c e s s i v e d e f o r e s t a t i o n and f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t i o n s . Tab le 5 .8 g i v e s t h e r e s u l t s o f an a e r i a l - p h o t o g r a m m e t i c s t u d y o f d e f o r e s t a t i o n i n Zimbabwe (Wh i t l ow , 1981) . The f i g u r e s i n t h e t a b l e show t h a t o v e r t h e t e n- y e a r s t u d y p e r i o d , t h e pe rcen tage o f Zimbabwe's l a n d a rea o c c u p i e d b y c l o s e d and open canopy woodl ands decreased w h i l e , i n v e r s e l y , t h e a r e a o c c u p i e d b y spa rse- cove r v e g e t a t i o n and c u l t i v a t e d l a n d s i n c r e a s e d . These t r e n d s r e f l e c t t h e i n c r e a s e d r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r fue lwood, t h e c l e a r i n g o f l and f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l expans ion, and v e g e t a t i o n d e s t r u c t i o n b y n a t u r a l causes. Such t r e n d s can be a v e r t e d o n l y t h rough a c o n c e n t r a t e d programme comb in ing r e f o r e s t a t i o n e f f o r t s w i t h wood- conse rva t i on p romot ion .

T a b l e 5 .9 p r e s e n t s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e l a n d areas cove red b y i n d i g e n o u s woodlands o u t s i d e o f commercial f a r m i n g a reas . These d a t a show t h a t n e a r l y 22 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s o u t o f Zimbabwe's t o t a l

TABLE 5 .8

C a l c u l a t i o n O f Changes I n Vege ta t i on Cover Types

Es t ima ted % Area Percentage Change Average % Change Cover Type 1963 1973 (1963-1973) Per Year

Woody Vege ta t i on Closed Canopy 12 8

Open Canopy 44 28

Sparse Cover 2 0 32

C u l t i v a t e d Lands 16 24

Other 8 8

Source: Whi t low, 1980

TABLE 5.9

Land Cl a s s i f i c a t i o n O f I nd igenous Woodl ands, Exc l u d i rig Commerci a1 Farms

Ca tego ry AREA

( m i l l i o n ha)

Permanent F o r e s t Reserve 0.929

N a t i o n a l Park Game P r e s e r v e 1.980

Unrese rved Woodl and S t a t e C o n t r o l l e d

Communal 16.040

TOTAL AREA 21.928

Source: IBRD, 1982, p .40

a r e a of 39 m i l l i o n h e c t a r e s (56%) a r e c l a s s i f i e d as i n d i g e n o u s woodlands, m o s t o f w h i c h i s d e s i g n a t e d as communal l a n d s . However, much o f t h i s a rea has been denuded due t o reasons p r e v i o u s l y d i s c u s s e d .

The F o r e s t r y Commission has p roduced e s t i m a t e s o f woodfue l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e communal a reas . These a r e summarized 3 i n T a b l e 5 .10. A p e r h e c t a r e wood p r o d u c t i o n e s t i m a t e o f 1 . 2 7 m was assumed i n a l l cases3 However, t h e p e r c a p i t a f u e l w o o d consumpt ion f i g u r e ( 7 . 5 m l h o u s e h o l d l y e a r o r 5 . 4 t o n n e s / h o u s e h o l d / y e a r ) was l o w e r t h a n t h e one o b t a i n e d b y H o s i e r (1982 ) 3and used i n t h i s a n a l y s i s ( 7 . 4 t onnes /househo ld / yea r o r 10.4 m / h o u s e h o l d / y e a r ) . As a r e s u l t , t h e f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s f r o m t h e a reas i n t h e t a b l e w o u l d be i n s u f f i c i e n t t o meet t o t a l demand i f t h e h i g h e r e s t i m a t e s were used. D i s c r e p a n c i e s o f t h i s k i n d p o i n t t o t h e need f o r a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e f u e l w o o d c y c l e i n Zimbabwe. Assuming t h a t t h e h i g h e r f i g u r e s a r e c o r r e c t , t h i s w o u l d mean t h a t r u r a l househo lds a r e e i t h e r o b t a i n i n g wood f rom a r e a s o t h e r t h a n n a t u r a l wood lands o r e l s e f r o m o u t s i d e o f communal a reas . B o t h a r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s , as t h e women su rveyed ( H o s i e r , 1982) a d m i t t e d t o spend ing n e a r l y 2 .5 h o u r s p e r day g a t h e r i n g wood. Such t i m e e x p e n d i t u r e s a l s o a t t e s t t o t h e s c a r c i t y o f wood.

I n response t o t h e s c a r c i t y o f f ue lwood , t h e F o r e s t r y Commission has begun a r e f o r e s t a t i o n p r o j e c t d e s i g n e d t o p l a n t e u c a l y p t u s woodl ands t h r o u g h o u t t h e communal and t h e s e t t 1 e d a r e a s . W h i l e t h e s e e f f o r t s a r e i n t h e r i g h t d i r e c t i o n , some c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e s e i s s u e s . F i r s t , g i v e n t h a t e u c a l y p t u s has n e g a t i v e e n v i r o n m e n t a l e f f e c t s on l o c a l w a t e r t a b l e s and s o i l c h e m i s t r y , i s i t t h e b e s t s p e c i e s t o use i n such e f f o r t s ? E f f o r t s s h o u l d be made t o use i n d i g e n o u s s p e c i e s whenever p o s s i b l e . Second, a r e woodl o t deve lopments n e c e s s a r i l y t h e b e s t approach t o t a k e ? Perhaps a scheme s h o u l d be implemented w h i c h p l a c e d t r e e g r o w t h and c a r e on a f a r m e r ' s own l a n d and under h i s own c a r e . T h i s i n c r e a s e s h i s r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n p rocess , as w e l l as e n s u r i n g h i s access t o t h e wood. C a r e f u l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s b e f o r e t h e p r o j e c t i s imp lemented.

Coal Suppl i e s .

As has a l r e a d y been s t a t e d , Zimbabwe's c o a l r e s e r v e s a r e q u i t e e x t e n s i v e . G i ven t h e l a r g e q u a n t i t y o f i n d i g e n o u s c o a l r e s e r v e s , Zimbabwe w o u l d do w e l l t o s u b s t i t u t e c o a l f o r o i l whe reve r i t i s t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e and economica l l y s e n s i b l e t o do so. The f i g u r e s i n Tab le 5 .11 show t h a t Zimbabwe possesses ample c o a l r e s e r v e s f o r m i l l e n i a , g i v e n c u r r e n t consumpt ion l e v e l s o f 3 m i l l i o n tonnes p e r y e a r . A1 though t h e f i g u r e s i n Tab le 5.11 a r e r o u g h e s t i m a t e s , t h e y do i n d i c a t e t h e e x t e n t o f Zimbabwe's c o a l d e p o s i t s - n e a r l y 30 thousand m i l l i o n tonnes. O f t h i s enormous p o t e n t i a l , t h e r e i s on1 y one a r e a c u r r e n t l y b e i n g

TABLE 5.10

Estimated Production O f Indigenous Woodlands In Communal Areas.

i nce Communal Areas Natural Wood1 ands Wood Proguction

( '000 ha) ( '000 h a ) ( ' 0 0 0 m /ann)

cal and

anal and East

snal and Central

maland West

3nds North

3nds South

~ r i a

~ e l el and North

~ e l el and South

:e: IBRD, 1982.

TABLE 5.11

Coal Resources And Reserves

Area

Resources Reserves To ta l Coal Resources

6 6 (10 Tonnes) (10 Tonnes) 6 (10 Tonnes)

Zambezi Basin 26,529 2,001 28,530

Sabi- Limpopo Basin 477 193 670

TOTAL 27,006 2,194 29,200

Source: IBRD, 1982.

mined i n t h e Zambezi b a s i n p r e s e n t l y . T h i s o p e r a t i o n a t Hwange (Wank ie) i s r u n b y t h e Wankie C o l l i e r y Company, L t d . , and accoun ts f o r Zimbabwe's annua l p r o d u c t i o n o f 3.2 m i l l i o n t onnes p e r annum. The p r o d u c t i o n o f steam c o a l and c o k i n g c o a l f o r 1980 a r e summarized i n T a b l e 5 .12. Rough ly f i f t y p e r c e n t o f t h e c o a l p roduced i n Zimbabwe i s steam c o a l and a n o t h e r f o r t y p e r c e n t i s used f o r coke p r o d u c t i o n . The r e m a i n i n g t e n p e r c e n t i s d i s c a r d e d o r o t h e r w i s e l o s t a t t h e p o i n t o f e x t r a c t i o n . Rough l y one t h i r d o f t h e c o a l p roduced i n Zimbabwe comes f r o m deep p i t mines and t h e r e m a i n d e r i s p roduced v i a open p i t o r s t r i p mines. On ly t h e b o t t o m s e c t i o n o f t h e c o a l seam i s mined, t h e rema inde r i s e i t h e r l e f t un touched o r i s d e p o s i t e d w i t h t h e overburden, a t w h i c h p o i n t i t s e l f - c o m b u s t s . The Wankie t he rma l g e n e r a t i n g p1 a n t i s des igned t o make use o f t h i s c o a l w h i c h w o u l d o t h e r w i s e go t o waste .

The l a s t two rows i n T a b l e 5 .12 g i v e s t h e annua l g r o w t h r a t e s i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f each c a t e g o r y ment ioned. W h i l e t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f steam c o a l has decreased o v e r t h e p a s t two decades, t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f c o k i n g c o a l has i n c r e a s e d due m a i n l y t o i n c r e a s e d p r o d u c t i o n on t h e p a r t o f t h e i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r y . The dec rease i n t h e demand f o r steam c o a l can be t r a c e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n made b y t h e r a i l w a y s t o s w i t c h t o l i q u i d - f u e l powered l o c o m o t i v e s . S teps a r e c u r r e n t l y b e i n g t a k e n t o r e f u r b i s h t h e o l d steam l o c o m o t i v e s . Steam c o a l e x p o r t s a r e l i m i t e d b y r e l a t i v e l y h i g h t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s . The e x p o r t s o f c o k i n g c o a l go m a i n l y t o South A f r i c a where t h e y a r e used i n t h e i r o n and s t e e l i n d u s t r y . T a b l e 5.13 summarizes Zimbabwe ' S t o t a l c o a l e x p o r t s by c o u n t r y o f d e s t i n a t i o n . A f t e r South A f r i c a , t h e mos t i m p o r t a n t d e s t i n a t i o n f o r Zimbabwean c o a l i s Z a i r e , where i t i s used i n m i n e r a l p r o c e s s i n g . These e x p o r t s a r e a t a s m a l l f r a c t i o n o f t h e i r p r e v i o u s l e v e l s , and a p a r t f r o m e x p o r t s a l e s t o m u l t i n a t i o n a l o i l f i r m s , t h e y do n o t seem l i k e l y t o expand i n t h e f u t u r e .

The f u t u r e o f c o a l i n Zimbabwe w i l l be d e t e r m i n e d b y how economica l l y i t can be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r p e t r o l e u m . Coal - f i r e d t he rma l g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t s a r e one such f o r m o f s u b s t i t u t i o n , as i s t h e r e f u r b i s h i n g o f steam-powered l o c o m o t i v e s . Coal l i q u i f a c t i o n i s a n o t h e r way o f mak ing t h i s s u b s t i t u t i o n . However, g i v e n p r e s e n t p r i c e s and t e c h n o l o g i e s , c o a l - l i q u i f a c t i o n does n o t y e t seem l i k e a v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e t o t h e i m p o r t a t i o n o f p e t r o l e u m f u e l S . As i n many w e s t e r n i n d u s t r i a l c o u n t r i e s , c o a l appears t o have a m a j o r r o l e t o p l a y i n t h e f u t u r e o f Zimbabwe's economy.

P e t r o l eum-Based Fue l S .

As was a rgued e a r l i e r , p e t r o l e u m f u e l s a r e e s s e n t i a l t o t h e c o n t i n u e d o p e r a t i o n o f t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r i n Zimbabwe. U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e r e a r e no known p e t r o l e u m r e s e r v e s i n Zimbabwe, a l l p e t r o l e u m mus t be i m p o r t e d . Fu r the rmore , s i n c e t h e r e i s no

- 201 -

TABLE 5.13

Coal E x p o r t s 1980 ( ' 0 0 0 t o n n e s )

Coun t r y O f D e s t i n a t i o n Steam Coal Cok ing Coal T o t a l

Botswana

Mal awi

Mozambi que

South A f r i c a

Z a i r e

Zarnbi a

TOTAL 12 2 17 229

f u n c t i o n a l r e f i n e r y , i t mus t a l l be i m p o r t e d as r e f i n e d p r o d u c t s r e a d y f o r r e t a i l s a l e s . A l l t h i s means t h a t Zimbabwe has and w i l l cont;nue t o have a l a r g e , b u t necessa ry , p e t r o l e u m- f u e l i m p o r t b i l l .

T a b l e 5 .14 summarizes e s t i m a t e s o f Zimbabwe's p e t r o l e u m consumpt ion f o r 1980. As t h e f i g u r e s r e f l e c t , gas o i l o r d i e s e l c u r r e n t l y accoun t f o r n e a r l y 50 p e r c e n t o f a l l p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s , and p e t r o l accoun ts f o r a n o t h e r 35 p e r c e n t . T h i s r a t i o o f r o a d t r a n s p o r t f u e l s , w h i c h i s c u r r e n t l y 60:40 d i e s e l f u e l t o p e t r o l , i s t h e i n v e r s e o f w h a t i t was t w e n t y y e a r s ago. T h i s change has come a b o u t l a r g e l y i n response t o t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e s between p e t r o l and d i e s e l f u e l and r e s u l t i n g changes i n t h e c o m p o s i t i o n o f t h e v e h i c l e f l e e t . Power p a r a f f i n i s t h e l e a s t i m p o r t a n t p e t r o l e u m f u e l , as i t i s used o n l y f o r t h e power ing o f s p e c i a l i z e d heavy mach ine ry . I t s i m p o r t a t i o n has decreased s i n c e 1973 i n response t o e f f o r t s d i s c o u r a g i n g i t s use.

As a1 l o f t h e s e f u e l s a r e i m p o r t e d i n t o Zimbabwe, t h e t o t a l v a l u e o f i m p o r t s f o r 1980 was Z$166.8 m i l l i o n (U.S. $233.5 m i l l i o n ) , a f i g u r e t h a t i s equa l t o n e a r l y t w e n t y p e r c e n t o f t h e v a l u e o f 1980 e x p o r t s . U n t i l t h e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n o f t h e B e i r a - M u t a r e ( U m t a l i ) p i p e l i n e , a l l o f t h i s f u e l was i m p o r t e d t h r o u g h South A f r i c a v i a r o a d o r r a i l . A l t h o u g h t h e p i p e l i n e was o r i g i n a l l y e s t a b l i s h e d t o pump c r u d e o i l t o t h e Fe ruka r e f i n e r y , i t has been r e c e n t l y r e t r o f i t t e d t o pump d i f f e r e n t r e f i n e d f u e l s on a r o t a t i n g schedu le . T h i s t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a1 t e r n a t i v e r e s u l t s i n c o n s i d e r a b l e s a v i n g s o v e r i m p o r t a t i o n t h r o u g h South A f r i c a . Due t o t h e change i n t h e f u e l - m i x c u r r e n t l y i n demand, i t does n o t appear t o be economica l l y f e a s i b l e t o r e f u r b i s h t h e r e f i n e r y w h i c h has been m o t h b a l l e d s i n c e 1964. The r e f i n e r y was des igned t o p roduce a m i x t u r e o f 60% p e t r o l , 40% d i e s e l , i n s t e a d o f t h e c u r r e n t mix , w h i c h i s t h e r e v e r s e .

A1 though Zimbabwe has l i t t l e a1 t e r n a t i v e t o t h e i m p o r t a t i o n o f r e f i n e d p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s , t h e government has begun t o l e s s e n t h i s i m p a c t by rni x i n g sugar- cane p roduced e t h a n o l w i t h p e t r o l . Toge the r w i t h t h e T r i a n g l e Sugar E s t a t e s , t h e Government b u i l t an e t h a n o l p l a n t t o p roduce p u r e e t h a n o l f r o m sugar- cane j u i c e and molasses. E thano l was f i r s t b l e n d e d w i t h p e t r o l i n September o f 1980 and i s c u r r e n t l y m ixed a t t h e r a t e o f 15% e t h a n o l t o 85% p e t r o l . E thano l i s p roduced a t a c o s t o f r o u g h l y Zc34.7 p e r l i t r e , w h i c h poses a s l i g h t s a v i n g s o v e r p e t r o l i m p o r t e d t h r o u g h Durban a t a c o s t o f Zc36.26 p e r l i t r e (IBRD, 1982, 2 4 ) . A1 though p l a n s have been d i s c u s s e d f o r i n c r e a s i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f e t h a n o l used i n t h e m i x t u r e , i t seems t h a t 20% e t h a n o l w i l l be t h e upper l i m i t o f s u b s t i t u t i o n .

I t appears t h a t t h e demand f o r p e t r o l e u m f u e l s w i l l c o n t i n u e t o grow a t a l e v e l equa l t o , i f n o t s l i g 9 t l y h i g h e r t han , t h a t o f o v e r a l l economic g r o w t h . Road t r a n s p o r t f u e l s w i l l i n c r e a s e i n i m p o r t a n c e as t h e r u r a l a reas become more a c c e s s i b l e . A i r t r a n s p o r t f u e l s w i l l i n c r e a s e i n i m p o r t a n c e as t h e t o u r i s t i n d u s t r y expands. E thano l w i l l c o n t i n u e t o b e s u b s t i t u t e d f o r

0 'a, n II L LL 3 F-

p e t r o l a t l e a s t f o r t h e immedia te f u t u r e . P a r a f f i n and LP gas w i l l a l s o grow i n i m p o r t a n c e as incomes r i s e and househo lds l o o k f o r a l t e r n a t i v e s t o s c a r c e and e x p e n s i v e f ue lwood . Power kerosene l o o k s t o be t h e o n l y f u e l whose consumpt ion w i l l n o t i n c r e a s e . T h i s p r o b a b l e a c r o s s - t h e - b o a r d i n c r e a s e i n t h e need f o r p e t r o l e u m f u e l s makes b o t h t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f c o a l and o t h e r non- pe t ro leum- based ene rgy s u p p l i e s and t h e improved e f f i c i e n c y i n t h e use o f p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s t h a t much more c r i t i c a l t o t h e hea l t h o f t h e economy.

E l e c t r i c i t y Suppl i e s .

W i t h p e r c a p i t a e l e c t r i c i t y consumpt ion a t 928 kwh and a peak-demand o f 1080 mw i n 1980, Zimbabwe has one o f t h e l a r g e s t e l e c t r i c a l systems i n A f r i c a . As has been i n d i c a t e d , mos t e l e c t r i c i t y i s consumed by m a n u f a c t u r i n g i n d u s t r y , w i t h a sma l l e r amount g o i n g t o m i n i n g , a g r i c u l t u r e , and t h e domes t i c s e c t o r . Most o f t h i s e l e c t r i c i t y i s g e n e r a t e d a t t h e K a r i b a complex, w i t h m i n o r amounts s u p p l i e d b y t he rma l g e n e r a t i n g systems. The r e l a t i v e abundance o f i n e x p e n s i v e l y g e n e r a t e d h y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y makes e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y p r i c e s among t h e l o w e s t i n t h e w o r l d .

C u r r e n t e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n f o r c a l e n d e r y e a r 1980 i s summarized i n T a b l e 5 .15. The t o t a l g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i s l i m i t e d b y t h e age o f s e v e r a l o f t h e g e n e r a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s w h i c h a r e i n need o f r e p a i r o r r ep lacemen t . On l y 91 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l c a p a c i t y i s a c t u a l l y a t t a i n a b l e g i v e n t h e e x i s t i n g i n f r a s t r u c t u r a l l i m i t a t i o n s . C u r r e n t p1 ans w o u l d have t h e g e n e r a t i o n c a p a c i t y i n c r e a s i n g t o o v e r 3000 mw b y 1990 t h r o u g h t h e a d d i t i o n o f new the rma l and h y d r o s i t e s . A c t u a l e l e c t r i c a l g e n e r a t i o n and s u p p l y f o r 1980 a r e summarized i n T a b l e 5.16. I n 1980, n e a r l y s e v e n t y p e r c e n t o f Zimbabwe's e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l y was g e n e r a t e d by t h e Zimbabwe h a l f o f t h e K a r i b a complex . The C e n t r a l A f r i c a n Power C o r p o r a t i o n (CAPCO) manages t h e c o u n t r y ' s e l e c t r i c i t y s u p p l i e s , i n c l u d i n g t h e i m p o r t s f r o m Zambia. The e l e c t r i c i t y i s t h e n s o l d t o one o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n companies and t r a n s m i t t e d t o t h e f i n a l consumers. The i m p o r t s f r o m Zambia w i l l r e m a i n a v a i l a b l e u n t i l Zambian consumpt ion i n c r e a s e s t o absorb it, e s t i m a t e d t o t a k e p l a c e i n 1984. A t t h i s p o i n t , Zimbabwe w i l l have t o have s u f f i c i e n t i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y t o meet n o t o n l y t h e i n c r e a s e i n consumpt ion r e q u i r e m e n t s , b u t a l s o t o r e p l a c e t h e Zambian s u p p l i e s t h a t w i l l no l o n g e r be a v a i l a b l e .

I n o r d e r t o p r e p a r e f o r f u t u r e consumpt ion r e q u i r e m e n t s , t h e Government i n i t i a t e d a Power Development P1 an t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e l e a s t c o s t e l e c t r i c i t y deve lopment p1 an. These p1 ans a r e c u r r e n t l y s l a t e d f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The p1 anned p i a n t s and t h e i r g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t i e s a r e l i s t e d i n T a b l e 5 .17. The f i r s t new p l a n t s a r e thermal- powered, d e s i g n e d t o make use o f t h e c o m b u s t i b l e ove rbu rden d i s c a r d e d f r o m t h e Wankie mines. The rema inde r o f t h e p l a n t s under c o n s i d e r a t i o n a r e h y d r o s t a t i o n s , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f Sengwa, w h i c h i s t o b e commiss ioned i n t h e

TABLE 5.15

E l e c t r i c a l G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y 1980

T o t a l C a p a c i t y E f f e c t i v e Capaci t y P r o j e c t e d Capaci t y (mw) (mw 1990 (mw)

TAL 1151.0 1051.4 3031.0

Arce: IBRD, 1982.

TABLE 5.16

E l e c t r i c i t y Supp l y 1980

Source GWh % o f T o t a l

Hydro Domest ic I m p o r t e d Zambi a I m p o r t e d O the r

TOTAL HYDRO 6740.0 92.7%

Thermal CAPCO Suppl i es O the r Suppl i e s

TOTAL THERMAL 532 .0 7 .3%

T o t a l E l e c t r i c i t y Suppl i e s 7272.0 100.0%

- T r a n s m i s s i o n Losses - 329.5 - 4 .5% Ne t E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption 6942.5 95.5%

Source: IBRD, 1982.

TABLE 5.17

P1 anned New E l e c t r i c a l I n s t a l l a t i o n s

l a n t S i z e Year

Type (mw Commi s s i oned

i n k i e Stage I

i n k i e Stage I 1 Phase I

i r i b a South E x t e n s i o n

i r i b a N o r t h E x t e n s i o n

i n k i e Stage 2 Phase 2

i t o k a Dam and South Bank Power S t a t i o n

~ r t h Bank Power S t a t i o n

l p a t a Gorge Dam and South S t a t i o n

) r t h S t a t i o n

Thermal

Thermal

Hydro

Hydro

Thermal

Hydro

Hydro

Hydro

Hydro

Thermal

I u r c e : IBRD, 1982, p . 3 7

y e a r 2000. The p l a n was a r r i v e d a t b y mak ing a s e t o f assumpt ions a b o u t t h e r a t e a t w h i c h l o a d - r e q u i r e m e n t s wou ld grow o v e r t h e n e x t t w e n t y y e a r s . These assumpt ions were f a i r l y r e a s o n a b l e ( 7 . 2 % p e r annum u n t i l 1990; 6 .1% p.a. t h e r e a f t e r ) , and r e s u l t e d i n a p r o j e c t i o n o f demand. The c o m b i n a t i o n o f p r o j e c t s l i s t e d ( i n T a b l e 5 .17) were j u d g e d t o be t h e mos t c o s t - e f f e c t i v e s e t o f o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e t o CAPCO. More r e c e n t l y , Sm i th (1980) has q u e s t i o n e d t h e a c t u a l l e a s t - c o s t e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e p1 an. He n o t e s t h a t t h e e x p e n s i v e Wankie I 1 i n s t a l l a t i o n c o u l d be pos tponed b y a c o n t i n u e d use o f e l e c t r i c a l i m p o r t s f r o m t h e Cahora Bassa i n Mozambique o r t h e I n g a Dam i n Z a i r e . E i t h e r wou ld s u p p l y e l e c t r i c i t y a t a l o w e r c o s t t h a n t h e Wankie I 1 s t a t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , CAPCO c o u l d b e g i n t o accumu la te t h e f i n a n c e s necessa ry f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e s e f a c i l i t i e s b y r a i s i n g t h e t a r i f f s cha rged t o m a n u f a c t u r i n g and m i n i n g consumers. T h i s c o u l d be done i n a way w h i c h w o u l d b r i n g t h e i r r a t e s up t o a l e v e l e q u a l l i n g t h o s e p a i d by domes t i c consumers and c o u l d decrease t h e s i z e o f i n t e r e s t payments r e q u i r e d a t a l a t e r d a t e .

I n summary, then, Zimbabwe's e l e c t r i c i t y s e c t o r i s s t r o n g and s h o u l d c o n t i n u e t o expand a t r a t e s a t l e a s t equa l t o t h a t o f t h e r e s t o f t h e economy. Be ing we l l - endowed w i t h hyd ro- resou rces and c o a l , t h e r e i s no need i n t h e immed ia te f u t u r e t o move toward o i l - f i r e d o r n u c l e a r - g e n e r a t i ng f a c i l i t i e s . However, c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e t a r i f f - s t r u c t u r e c u r r e n t l y a p p l i e d t o e l e c t r i c i t y u s e r s . The p r e s e n t mechanism i s based on t h e h i s t o r i c a l c o s t s o f g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t i e s i n a d e c l i n i n g - b l o c k f a s h i o n . Thus, t h e l a r g e s t consumers ( i . e . , i n d u s t r i e s ) a c t u a l l y pay l e s s p e r KWh t h a n do s m a l l e r consumers ( d o m e s t i c u s e r s ) . E f f i c i e n c y and c o n s e r v a t i o n c o u l d be encouraged i f an economic p r i c i n g sys tem were implemented. Such a sys tem w o u l d be f o c u s e d on t h e c o s t o f t h e n e x t o r m a r g i n a l g e n e r a t i n g f a c i l i t y . T h i s w o u l d a l s o s i m p l i f y t h e p rocess o f c a p i t a l f i n a n c i n g , and c o u l d be done i n such a way as t o p r e s e r v e t h e be1 ow-average e l e c t r i c i t y r a t e s used as an i n c e n t i v e t o a t t r a c t i n d u s t r y t o Zimbabwe.

CONCLUSION

I n c l o s i n g , a number o f t h e i s s u e s r a i s e d i n t h e p r e c e e d i n g s e c t i o n s w i l l be r e v i e w e d and summarized. These w i l l b e p r e s e n t e d i n o r d e r t o s t i m u l a t e d i s c u s s i o n and t h o u g h t and w i l l be grouped a c c o r d i n g t o s u p p l y sou rce . The m o s t i m p o r t a n t f u e l t o t h e Zimbabwean economy i s wood, s u p p l y i n g o v e r f o r t y p e r c e n t o f t o t a l ene rgy consumpt ion . S i n c e mos t o f t h i s e n e r g y i s used b y t h e r u r a l househo ld s e c t o r , f ue lwood w i l l r ema in v i t a l f o r many y e a r s t o come. I n r e c e n t y e a r s , f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s have become i n c r e a s i n g l y s c a r c e due t o t h e m a r g i n a l i z a t i o n o f t h e r a p i d l y g r o w i n g r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n , and t h e i n c r e a s e d demands o f t h e u rban

p o p u l a t i o n . More e f f i c i e n t end-use d e v i c e s w i l l have t o be f o u n d f o r f u e l w o o d i n o r d e r t o improve t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f i t s uses. Perhaps more i m p o r t a n t w i l l be t h e enhancement o f f u e l w o o d s u p p l i e s i n r u r a l and u r b a n areas. A l t h o u g h p r e s e n t e f f o r t s f o c u s on t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f e u c a l y p t u s w o o d l o t s , i t i s n o t c l e a r t h a t t h i s r e p r e s e n t s e i t h e r t h e b e s t c h o i c e o f s p e c i e s o r t e c h n i q u e o f p r o d u c t i o n . D i s c u s s i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f a g r o f o r e s t r y schemes u s i n g o t h e r f a s t - g r o w i n g s p e c i e s . A d d i t i o n a l t h o u g h t s h o u l d be devo ted t o t h e p r o b l e m o f f ue lwood s u p p l i e s i n t h e u r b a n a reas .

The second m o s t i m p o r t a n t f u e l i n Zimbabwe i s c o a l , w h i c h t h e n a t i o n has p l e n t y o f . The Wor ld Bank M i s s i o n sugges ts t h a t t h e t a r i f f s t r u c t u r e f o r c o a l s h o u l d be re- examined w i t h an eye toward expanded f u t u r e o u t p u t and p o s s i b l e e x p o r t m a r k e t s . An i s s u e n o t r a i s e d by t h e Wor ld Bank team i s t h a t o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l i m p l i c a t i o n s . What a r e t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o m p l i c a t i o n s c r e a t e d b y p r e s e n t and f u t u r e c o a l e x p l o i t a t i o n ? I s t h e r e a way t o a v o i d some o f t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l d e s t r u c t i o n t h a t has accompanied c o a l e x t r a c t i o n i n t h e w e s t e r n i n d u s t r i a l n a t i o n s ? I n a d d i t o n , wha t i s t h e r o l e o f w o r k e r s a f e t y i n f u t u r e c o a l deve lopment p l a n s ? I t i s n o t c l e a r t h a t s u f f i c i e n t t h o u g h t has been g i v e n t o any o f t hese p o i n t s .

I n te rms o f p e t r o l e u m f u e l s , t h e r e i s no a1 t e r n a t i v e t o t h e i r c o n t i n u e d i m p o r t a t i o n . However, c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e improved e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e i r use and t h e i r r ep1 acement w i t h c o a l , e l e c t r i c i t y , p r o d u c e r gas, o r o t h e r a1 t e r n a t i v e s whenever p o s s i b l e . A long t h e s e l i n e s , e t h a n o l can c o n t i n u e t o p l a y a l a r g e r o l e i n s u b s t i t u t i n g f o r p e t r o l e u m i m p o r t s . However, i t appears t h a t 20 p e r c e n t may be t h e economica l uppe r l i m i t f o r t h e r e p l a c e m e n t o f p e t r o l b y e t h a n o l , as u s i n g a h i g h e r p e r c e n t a g e w i l l t a k e l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f l a n d and r e q u i r e r e t r o f i t t i n g t h e v e h i c l e f l e e t (IBRD, 1982) . C o n s i d e r a t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o o t h e r s u b s t i t u t e s , whenever p o s s i b l e .

F i n a l l y , i n t h e e l e c t r i c i t y s e c t o r , t h r e e i s s u e s w a r r a n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n . F i r s t o f a1 l, r a t e s t r u c t u r e s s h o u l d be des igned t o s u i t b e t t e r t h e economic r e a l i t i e s f a c i n g t h e e l e c t r i c i t y s e c t o r . Ra tes can be des igned t o be more e q u i t a b l e a c r o s s s e c t o r s and s u i t e d t o t h e f u t u r e c a p i t a l r e q u i r e m e n t s o f t h e s e c t o r . Second, c a r e f u l s c r u t i n y s h o u l d be g i v e n t o t h e l e a s t - c o s t deve lopment p l a n t o j u d g e whe the r o r n o t i t a c t u a l l y i s a l e a s t - c o s t p1 an. Cheaper a1 t e r n a t i v e s may be a v a i l a b l e b y u s i n g i m p o r t s o f e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t e d e l sewhere i n t h e r e g i o n . G r i d expans ion i s cheaper t h a n c a p a c i t y expans ion . F i n a l l y , w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o g r i d e x t e n s i o n , t h e e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n o f h i g h - d e n s i t y u rban a reas s h o u l d be g i v e n c o n s i d e r a t i o n . These a reas a r e f a c i n g a s e r i o u s f u e l w o o d s h o r t a g e . T h e i r f u l l e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n w o u l d a l l e v i a t e some o f t h e p r e s s u r e on t h e d w i n d l i n g wood- resource base a t a more economica l r a t e t h a n w o u l d r u r a l e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n . Urban e l e c t r i f i c a t i o n may p r o v i d e a s o l u t i o n t o t h e u rban f u e l wood p rob lem.

REFERENCES

Cent ra l A f r i c a n Power Corpora t ion (CAPCO), Annual Repor t and Accounts f o r the Year Ended 30 June, 1981. Harare: CAPCO, 1981.

Cen t ra l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e (CSO). Month ly D i g e s t o f S t a t i s t i c s . S a l i s b u r y : Cen t ra l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e , 1982.

Davis, R. "The I n f o r m a l Sec to r : A S o l u t i o n t o Unemployment?" From Rhodesia t o Zimbabwe, 5. GWERU: Mambo Press, L td, 1978.

E l e c t r i c i t y Supply Commission. Annual Repor t and Accounts f o r the Year Ended 30 June, 1981. Harare: ESCO, 1982.

Hosier , R . "Household Energy Consumption I n Zimbabwe: Resu l t s o f a Sample Survey," Bei j e r I n s t i t u t e , 1983.

I n t e r n a t i o n a l Bank f o r Recons t ruc t ion and Development (IBRD), "Energy i n Zimbabwe,"(draft r e p o r t ) . Washington: IBRD, 1982.

Masambani, D., "Woodfuel Trade and Consumption Pa t te rns i n Sal i sbury ' S Townships," Proceedings o f ~ e o g r a p h i c a l Assoc ia t ion o f Zimbabwe 13:21-35, 1980.

M i n i s t r y o f Economic P1 anning and Development (MEPD) , Annual Economic Review o f Zimbabwe. S a l i s b u r y : Government P r i n t e r s , 1981.

Modern Farming P u b l i c a t i o n s , Zimbabwe A g r i c u l t u r a l and Economic Review. Harare: Mardon P r i n t e r s , 1982.

R i d d e l l Commission, Repor t o f t h e Commission o f I n q u i r y I n t o Incomes, Pr i ces , and Cond i t ions o f Serv ices . Harare: Government P r i n t e r s , 1982.

Smith, S., " P r e l i m i n a r y Note on Zimbabwe's E l e c t r i c Energy Planning," (memo) New York: UNDP, 1980.

Stoneman, C . ed., Zimbabwe's I n h e r i t a n c e . London: Macmil lan Press, L td, 1981.

Whit low, J . R., " D e f o r e s t a t i o n i n Zimbabwe," Zambezia Supplement. 1-35, 1981.

Whitsun Foundation. Rura l A f f o r e s t a t i o n Study. S a l i s b u r y : Whitsun Foundation, 1981.

Wield, D. 1981. "Manufactur ing I n d u s t r y , " 151-173 i n C.Stoneman, ed., Zimbabwe's I n h e r i t a n c e . London: Macmil lan, 1981.

APPENDIX

ENERGY C O N S U M P T I O N AND S U P P L Y ESTIMATES

APPENDIX 5 . 1

A c t i v i t y Leve ls

P o p u l a t i o n : December 31, 1980

Househol d Thousands o f ( '000) S i z e Households

Rura l Urban

T o t a l 7,480.0 1117.17

a-e&?WbeW o m 4 o c u . . . . . w m w w w

APPENDIX 5 . 3

E l e c t r i c G e n e r a t i o n C a p a c i t y

To ta: E f f e c t i v e P r o j e c t e d A c t u a l Capaci t y C a p a c i t y C a p a c i t y Genera t i on (MW) (MW) 1990 1980 Gk'h

Hydro Thermal

APPENDIX 5 . 4

E l e c t r i c i t y Supply: 1380 --

Domestic Genera t ion 5533.0 Imports 1739.0

To ta l Supply

Transmiss ion Losses - 329 .5

To ta l Consumption 6942.5

Source : IBRD, 1382.

APPENDIX 5 .6

Conve rs ion F a c t o r s Used

Wood 15.5 Coal 29 .31 P e t r o l 5 .467 D i e s e l (GasIOi l ) 6 .149 Power P a r a f f i n 5.577 I l l u m i n a t i n g P a r a f f i n 5.577 A v i a t i o n Gas 5.466 Turbo J e t 5.577 LP Gas 6 .169 E l e c t r i c i t y 3 .6

o m w m W w

T 0

" . . m m . . i U N

4 C> N

O W N - N O . . . 0 0 0

APPENDIX 5 . 8

End Use S p e c i f i c a t ~ o n s

S e c t o r Fue l Consumpt ion ( U n i t s )

A g r i c u l t u r e l F o r e s t r y E l e c t r i c i t y 500 .9 (106 Kwh) Coal 288.0 ( l o 3 t o n n e s ) P e t r o l 6 5 . 0 ( l o 3 b a r r e l s ) Gas O i l 563 .0 ( l o 3 b a r r e l s ) Ill. Kerosene 6 . 0 (10: b a r r e l s ) Power P a r a f f i n 1 .0 (103 b a r r e l s ) Wood 226.0 (10 t o n n e s )

M a u f a c t u r i n g

Power

M i n i n g , Q u a r r y i n g

T r a n s p o r t R a i l w a y

A v i a t i o n

A u t o - P r i v a t e

Government

O the r

Coal E l e c t r i c i t y P e t r o l D i e s e l Power P a r a f f i n

Coal

E l e c t r i c i t y Coal

P e t r o l D i e s e l Coal AV. Gas Turbo J e t P e t r o l D i e s e l P e t r o l D i e s e l Coal Gas O i l LP. Gas E l e c t r i c i t y

1257.0 (10"onnes) 3517.7 (10: Kwh)

84 .6 (103 b a r r e l s ) 341 .1 (103 b a r r e l s )

5 . 0 ( 1 0 b a r r e l s )

292 (103 t o n n e s )

1302.2 (106 Kwh) 233.0 ( ' 0 0 0 t o n n e s )

4 .79 ( ' 0 9 0 bar re?^) 569.96 (10 b a r r e l s )

248 (103 t o n n e s ) 44 (103 b a r r e l s )

459 (103 b a r r e l s ) 1258.4 (103 b a r r e l s )

309 .01 (103 b a r r e l s ) 178 .9 (10: b a r r e l s ) 430.3 (103 b a r r e l s ) 202 .7 (103 t o n n e s )

75.6 (103 b a r r e l s ) 4 . 7 ( 10 b a r r e l s )

6 9 3 . 4 (106 Kwh)

No. Of Consumpt ion S e c t o r Households End-Use Fue l S a t u r a t i o n ( U n i t s )

R u r a l House-

h o l d 885,600

Wood 0 .985 7426.6 ( k g ) Cook, Crop 0 . 4 ( 3 1 9 . 4 ) ( k g ) * h e a t was te

Coal 0 .015 953.3 ( k g ) LP.Gas 0 .02 121.5 ( k g )

L i g h t , Cook P a r a f f i n 0 .95

Urban Cook, Wood 0 .35 4831.04 ( k g ) House- h e a t Coal 0 .015 1334.67 ( k g )

h o l d 231,500 LP.Gas 0 .25 9 7 . 8 ( k g ) Caok, P a r a f f i n 0.395 80 .24 ( I t ) L i g h t E l e c t r i - 0 .738 5433.52

c 1 ty

* Crop was tes a r e o p t i c n a l as i t 1s based on an e x t r e m e l y s m a l l number o f cases .

INDEX TO ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:

SADCC Country Studies , Par ts I and I1

In t h e following Index the l e t t e r s in parentheses preceding the page numbers r e f e r t o the various countr ies c i t e d , a s follows:

Part I , containing: Par t 11, containing:

( A ) = Angola (B) = Botswana (L) = Lesotho (M) = Malawi

(MO) = Mozambique (S) = Swaziland (T) = Tanzania (Z) = Zambia (ZI ) = Zimbabwe

Note: Pa r t s I and I1 appear i n " ENERGY ENVIRONMENT A N D DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA"

Volumes 3 and 4 respect ively

A b b a t o i r ( B ) 8 5 B i o - d i g e s t i o n (B) 112 A c a c i a ( L ) 158 Biogas (B) 1 1 4 ; (M) 1 7 7 ; A c e t y l e n e ( T ) 108 (S) 8 2 ; ( T ) 104 Aeromagnet ic s u r v e y ( B ) 113 p r o d u c t i o n ( S ) 8 0 A f f o r e s t a t i o n (B) 1 1 7 ; (L) Biomass ( T ) 9 5 , 1 0 1 , 1 0 6 ,

1 4 8 , 1 5 8 ; (MO) 4 2 ; ( S ) 112 70: ( Z I ) 1 8 5 d i s t r i b u t i o n (B) 99

~ a r i c u l t u r e ' i A ) 1 4 . 1 5 . 20. f u e l ( T ) 100 - 2 3 , 3 4 , i i ; ( ~ j 71: 7 6 ; i ~ Y 2 3 , 5 7 ; 8 2 ; ( L ) 1 4 7 , 1 5 1 , 156 ; (B) 9 3 ; 99, 1 1 6 ; ( L ) (M) 1 7 3 , 1 7 5 , 1 8 4 ; (MO) 151 1 5 , 2 4 , 3 0 ; ( S ) 5 2 , 5 5 , Bitumen p l a ~ t ( T ) 9 3 5 8 , 6 7 ; ( T ) 9 1 , 1 0 1 ; B l a c k l i o u o r ( S ) 8 0 ( Z ) r 3 8 , 1 3 9 ; ( Z I ) 1 7 5 , s o l i d s (S) 70 1 7 8 , 1 8 6 , 1 8 8 , 1 9 0 , 192 B l a n k e t weaving (B) 112

A g r i c u l t u r a l B l e n d i n g p l a n t ( Z ) 164 a c t i v i t i e s ( 2 ) 150 B o i l e r f u e l ( T ) 1 0 8 energy deman (B) 8 2 Botswana equipment ( 2 ) 162 economy (B) 71- 73 e x p o r t s ( S ) 52 g e o g r a p h i c a l s e t t i n g l a n d ( T ) 104 (B) 67 p r c c e s s i n g ? n d u s t r i e s ( T ) 106 r e s i d u e s (M) 176-177 , 1 7 8 ; (T) 1 0 0 , 1 0 6 , 116 s t a t i s t i c s ( L ) 146 wood use ( Z ) 146

A i r t r a n s p o r t (B) 8 6 ; (MO) 2 4 ; ( Z I ) 1 8 9 , 1 9 0 , 202

A l b i z i a (MO) 2 8 A l p i n e v e g e t a t i o n ( T ) 101 Aluminun s m e l t e r (MO) 20 Ammonia u r e a f e r t i l i z e r

(MO) 40 Ango! a

Pol i t ~ c a l economy ( A ) 7

~ n l m a l dung (A) 79; (B) 7 3 , 7 9 , 9 7 ; ( L ) 1 4 8 , 1 5 1 , 1 5 3 ; (MO) 1 5 ; (S) 6 4 , 7 4 ; ( T ) 116

Animal power (B) 1 1 1 , 1 1 7 , 171

~ n t h r a c i t e c o a l s (S) 76 A q u a t i c g r a s s l a n d s (B) 5 7 Asbestos (S) 5 2 , 5 5 ; ( Z I )

187 Ash f u e l ( 2 ) 152 A t r i p l e x qummu1ar;a ( E ) 99 Average annual consumption

o r f u e l s i n m i n i n g ( Z ) 157

Avgas (B) 8 6 , 88 A v i a t i o n f u e l (MO) 2 3 , 40

Bagasse (M) 1 7 4 ; (S) 58 , 8 0 ; (T) 116

Balance o f p a y r e n t s (MO) 14

Beans (B) 8 3 ; ( M ) 1 7 3 ; ( S ) 6 5

B e i r a - M u t a r e ( U m t a l i ) p i p e l i n e ( Z I ) 202

Beiigue;a (A) 1 5 Beverage i n d u s t r y (S) 61

meat commission (B) 100 p o p u l a t i o n (B) 6 7 , 7 5 power corlipany ( B ) 75 , 7 9 , 106 renewable energy t e c h - n o l o a i e s ( B ) 78 t e c h n o l o g y c e n t r e (B) 7 3 , 7 9 , 8 2

B o t t l e d gas (MO) 2 8 , 40 B r a c h y s t e g i a (MO) 2 8 ; ( Z )

147 BRET s t u d y (B) 79 Brewer ies (B) 8 5 , 1 0 0 ; ( L )

151: ( T ) 9 3 . 9 5 B r i c k w h r k s ' ( ~ ) ' 8 5 , 1 0 0 ;

(M) 1 7 6 ; (T) 9 5 Buses ( Z ) 162 Bushland ( T ) 8 9 , 101 Bus iness s e r v i c e s ( Z j 139 Butane qas (A) 1 7 , 1 8 ; ( E )

7 8 ; - ( 1 ) 1 5 3 ; (M) 176; ( T ) 1 0 8 , 114

Calc ium c a r b i d e ( T ) 1 0 8 , 116

Candles ( 5 ) 73 , 7 9 , < l ? ; (MC) 1 8 ; (S) 6 2

Card;ewax ( Z ) 138 Canned f r u i t (S) 52 Canning ( E ) 8 5 C a p i t a l goods ( 1 ) 165 CARBOMOC ( S t a t e M i n i n g

Company) (MO) 35 Carbon monoxide ( T ) 108: . .

( 2 1 ) 185 CAPCO ( C e n t r a l A f r i c a n

Power C o r p o r a t i o n ) ( Z I ) 2 0 4 , 203

Cashew n u t s (MO) 13 Cassava ( T ) l 0 1 C a t t l e ( T ) 8 9

g r a z i q g ( Z ) 135 Cement (A) 1 0 ; ( 5 ) 8 5 ,

100 ; ( T ) 1 0 6 ; ( Z ) 152 C e n t r a l A f r ' c a ~ Power

C o r p o r a t i o n (CAPCO) ( Z I ) 204 , 208

Cb,arcoal (A) 1 7 , 1 8 , 19, 3 6 , 5 3 , 54 ; (B) 7 8 ; ( M ) 1 7 6 , 1 7 7 ; (MO) 1 5 , 2 0 , 2 5 , 2 8 , 3 0 , 3 4 , 4 3 ; ( S ) 8 1 ; ( T ) 9 5 , 1 0 6 , 112 ; ( Z ) 1 3 6 , 1 3 8 , 1 3 9 , 1 4 1 , 1 4 4 , 1 4 6 , 1 6 5 ; ( Z I ) 183 gFi11 ( S ) 8 1 r e f r i g e r a t o r ( S ) 8 2

Chemical feeds tock (T) 116 mach inery ( Z I ) 136

Chitemene ( 2 ) 1 3 5 , 147 a g r i c u l t u r e ( Z ) 1 3 5 , 1 4 7 , 1 6 5

Chrome ( 2 1 ) 187 C i t r u s (S) 52 Clrmate ( L ) 1 5 6 ; ( Z ) 1 3 5 Coal ( B ) 7 3 , 7 8 , 8 5 , 9 9 ,

1 0 0 , 1 0 6 , 1 1 4 , 1 1 8 , r 1 9 ; ( L ) 1 4 8 , 1 5 2 , 1 6 1 ; ( M ) 1 7 4 , 1 8 0 , 1 8 1 , 1 8 3 ; (MO) 7 , 1 3 , 2 0 , 3 4 , 3 5 ; [S) 5 5 , 6 1 , 6 6 , 7 6 , 7 8 , 8 1 ; ( T ) 94 , 1 0 6 , 1 0 8 , 1 1 6 ; ( Z ) 1 3 5 , 1 5 0 , 1 5 2 , 1 6 9 ; (ZI) 1 8 1 , 1 8 3 , 1 8 5 , 1 8 7 , 1 9 2 , 1 9 3 , 1 9 6 , 1 9 9 , 209 based e l e c t r o l y t i c hydroger l ( Z I ) 187 f i r e d power p l a n t (MO) 3 8 f i r e d thermal gene- r a t i n g p l a n t s ( Z I ) 199 l i a u i f i c a t i o n (MO) 3 5 , (Z) 152 mines (2) 152 p r o d u c e r gas (B) 9 9 , 112 Users C o m i t t e e (CUC) (M) 181

C o f f e e (A) 9 , 1 0 ; 3 4 ; ( T ) 1 0 1 , 116

Colophospermum mophane (MO) 28

Combretaceae (MO) 2 8 Ccmbretum a ~ i c u l atnm (B )

9 5 C o m ~ e r c i a l a c t i v i t i e s ( 2 1 )

190 a g r f c u l cure (2) 1 4 7 , 165 energy ( M ) 1 7 5 , 1 8 0 , "t83; (S) 6 7 ; ( T ) 1 0 6 , 1 1 0 , 317 ; ( 2 ) 1 3 9 ; ( Z I ) 192 energy consumption ( S ) 5 5 , 58 energy demand (B) 8 6 ; ( L ) 1 4 6 ; (M) 1 7 5 energy sources (NO) 3 4 f a r m i n g ( 2 ) 1 3 5 , 1 3 8 , 162 ; (ZI) 192 f i r e w o o d ( Z ) 146

f i r e w o o d t r a a e ( Z ) 144 f u e l s ( L ) 153; (hi) 175; ( no ) 42; (T) 106; ( z ) 157; ( Z I ) 189, 192 p l a n t a t i o n (MO) 34 woodfuel ( 2 ) 144

C o m u n i c a t i o n (140) 44 ; ( Z ) 119

~ o n s e r c a t l o n (T) 109 C o n s t r u c t i o n ( B ) 85 ; ( L )

146, 148; (WO) 30; ( T ) 91; ( Z ) 145; (ZI) 188

Copper ( B ) 71, 8 5 , 100; ( Z ) 139, 164; ( Z I ) 187

Corn ( B ) 8 5 Cot tage i n d u s t r y ( T ) 93 C o t t o n ( A ) 9 , 14 , 34; ( M )

173; ( T ) 104, 116; ( Z I ) 38

- g i n n i n g ( Z I ) 186 seeds husks ( M ) 174

D r a i n a g e sys tem ( Z ) 135 Drum r e c o n d i t i o n i n g p l a n t

( Z ) 164 Draught-power ( B ) 83 Dung ( T ) 104 Dwanga Sugar E s t a t e (M)

181

E c o l o g i c a l breakdown (MO) 28 c a p a c i t y ( T ) 89 ; ( Z I ) 192 damage ( A ) 3 4 , 54 sources ( Z ) 147

Economic background ( M ) 173; (MO) 7 ; ( S ) 51 deve l opmeht ( T ) 117; ( Z ) 169 f ramework (S) 55 q r o w t h ( M ) 182; ( Z I ) 175 t r e n d i Z I ) 173

demand (MO) 25, 42; (S) 55 , 58 ; ( 2 ) 164 f u t u r e ( M ) 181 i m p o r t s (S) 67 i ssues and c o n c l u d i ons ( A ) 51-57 p l a n n i n g ( L ) 148 p01 i c y (MO) 38 p o t e n t i a l demand o f ( A ) 13 p r o d u c t i o n ( L ) 165, ( M ) 178 r e q u ~ r e m e n t ( A ) 12 r e s o u r c e s ( A ) 3 7 , 51, 55; ( M ) 180; ( z r ) 173 s u b s t i t u t i o n ( 8 ) l 13 s u p p l y (MO) 24; ( S ) 67 ; (ZI) 192 t e c h n o l o g y (MO) 43 use ( B ) 72 , 76

Env i ronmenta l d e g r a d a t i o n ( 0 ) 99 . .

Crop c u l t i v a t i o n ( L ) 147 Economy ( B ) 78; ( L ) 141, i m p l i c a t i o n s ( Z I ) 209 r e s i d u e s ( B ) 73, 78 , 146; ( Z ) 138; ( Z I ) E r o s i o n (MO) 42; ( S ) 5 5 ; 79 , 97; ( L ) 148, 152; 173, 178 ( Z ) 135 ( M ) 176; (MO) 15 , 18; E l e c t r i c a l E n g i n e e r i n g ESCOM ( L ) 163; ( S ) 75, 78 (S) 5 4 , 74; ( T ) 94 , Department (MMRWA) E thano l (M) 181; ( Z I ) 202, 104; ( 2 1 ) 181 ( B ) 8 6 , 104, 106, 110, 209

Crude o i l (MO) 40 ; ( T ) 9 3 , 1 l 1 p r o d u c t i o n ( S ) 78 , 82 114; ( Z ) 154 g e n e r a t i o n ( T ) 93 ; E u c a l y p t u s ( B ) 98 , 99 ; (MO) o e t r o l e u m ( A ) 10. 17. ( Z ) 147 25. 34: (S) 70: i Z 1 ) 34 , 44 -48 , . 54 , 55 , 56; (B) 114

Crustaceans (MO) 13 CUC (Coal Users Committee)

( M ) 181 Cupressus g l a b r a ( L ) 158

D e f o r e s t a t i o n ( B ) 95; (MO) 28; ( S ) 64 ; ( Z ) 135, 146; ( Z I ) 193

Demography ( 2 ) 135 Destock?na ( S ) 55 Diamonds i ~ j i o , 12; ( B )

71; ( L ) 146, 160, 163 D i e s e l demand ( Z ) 152

- f i r e d s t a t i o n s ( T ) 93 f u e l (MO) 40; ( 7 ) 162; ( Z i ) 180, i89 g e n e r a t o r s (L) 166; ( Z ) 150

8 2 , i 3 1 86; 88 ; i 06 , 1 ? 2 , 113; ( L ) 160, 166; ( M ) 176, 179, 180, 181, 183; (MO) 23; ( S ) 67 thermal power u n i t s ( Z ) 147 u n i t s ( B ) 8 2 , 85

Domest ic an ima l p o p u l a t i o n ( T ) 89 c o n s ~ m p t i o n s e c t o r ( S ) 58 demand (MO] 38 energy consumpt ion (MO) 15 , 20; : S ) 61 , 66 ; ( T ) 94; ( Z l ) 178-180 f u e l ( Z I ) 180 m a r k e t consumpt ion ( Z ) 157, 164

. . Supp ly Conmission o f Malawi (ESCOM) ( M )

- , E l e c t r i c i t y ( A ) 17, 18 , 19 ,

38 , 51 , 52 , 54 , 55: 56; ( B ) 71 , 73 , 75 , 78 , 79, 8 1 , 8 5 , !06, 110, 114, 119; ( L ) 143. 153. 163: ( M )

( Z I ) 178, 181, 183, 187, 209 c l a s s ( L ) 163 r e s o u r c e s (MO) 35 s u p p l i e s (Z!) 204 Supp ly Comm;ssion o f South A f r i c a ESCOM g r i d ( L ) 163, 165, 168

End-uses and energy sources ( B ) 76-79, 81

Energy b a l a n c e (M) 174 consumpt ion ( A ) 13 ; (l') 91 , 106; ( Z ) :35 , 165; (ZI) 178, 186 consumpt ion g r o w t h ( A ) 12 , 15 consumptior i g rowth lmp l i c a t i o n s ( M ) 183 convent iona l s u p p l y o f ( B ) 100 c o n v e r s i o n s ( B ) 1 0 6 c o s t ( 2 ) 154

1 9 6 , 2 0 9" " '

E u c a l y p t u s b r i d g e s i a n a ( L ) 158

E u c a l y p t u s o i l ( S ) 70 E u c a l y p t u s r u b i d a ( L ) 158 E u c a l y p t u s v i m i n a l i s ( L )

158 E x p o r t s ( B ) 73; ( L ) 146;

(MO) 13 ; i Z ) 138 r o u t e s ( B ) 118

Farming ( B ) 71, 72 , 83 F e r t i l i z e r ( 2 ) 152 Finance ( T ) 91 Fiqanc ia ! resources ( Z I )

178 - s e r v i c e s ( Z I ) 188

Fi rewood ( S ) 61 , 70; ( Z ) 136, 139, 141

F i s h smoking (T) 95 F i s h e r i e s (Z) 139 F i s h i n g i n d u s t r y ( Z ) 135

wood use ( Z ) 146 F l o o d p l a i ~ c u l t i v a t i o n ( Z )

135 Food i n d u s t r y (S) 61

p r o c e s s i n g ( B ) 61 p r o d u c t i o n ( B ) 99; ( T ) 112 p r o d u c t s ( Z I ) 186

F o r e c a s t o f energy consumpt ion 1980-2000 ( T ) 110

Forecas ted consumption by energy source ( T ) 112

F o r e i g n exchange ( T ) 108; ( Z ) 164 t r a d e ( 8 ) 73, 104

F o r e s t r e g e n e r a t i o n (MC) 42

F o r e s t r y (A) 23, 28, 34, 53, 54, 55, 57; (B) 77, 98; ( L ) 156; (M) 177; (MO) 30, 42; ( Z ) 139; (21) 175, 178 E x t e n s i o n S e c t i o n (MO) 34

F o r e s t s (MO) 28; (T) 118 F o s s i l f u e l s (B) 114 F o u r t h ~ a t i o n a l 'Development

P l a n (S) 55 F r a n c i s t o w n (B) 75, 76, 80,

9 7 Fue l i s ) 58 Fuelwood (A) 1 9 , 20, 23, 28,

36, 53, 54; ( B ) 73, 76, 78 i79 , -81 , -88 , 9 5 , . 9 7 , - 100, 116; ( L ) 148, 153; (M) 174, 175-176, 177, 182, 184; (MO) 15, 18, 25, 30, 34, 43; (S) 51, 61-62, 64-65; ( T ) 97, 112; ( Z I ) 180-181, 193, 196, 206, 209 consumpt ion (MO) 20 r e s o u r c e s (S) 80

F u t u r e consumot ion o a t t e r n s and t h e i r imp l ;ca t ions (T) 110

F u t u r e p r o s p e c t s ( B ) 113

Gaborone (B) 75, 76, 80 Gambia (B) 78 Gas (B) 99; (MO) 7 , 13, 38;

( T ) 94; (Z) 139; ( Z I ) 183

Gaseous enl

(MO) 23; (S) 67, 78; ( 2 ) 162

G e o g r a p h i c a l l y (S) 62 Goats ( T ) 89 Gold ( Z I ) 187, 188 Grass land ( T ) 8 9 , 101

c u l t i v a t i o n ( Z ) 135 Grass savanna ( 8 ) 67 G r a z i n g (S) 62 G r i d sys tem ( T ) 93 , 109;

( 2 1 ) 209

Households ( L ) 140; (M) 184; ( T ) 93, 97; ( Z I ) 180

Huambo (A) 15, 23 Hydrocarbon p o t e n t i a l (M)

180 H y d r o e l e c t r i c m o b i l e

s t a t i o n s (A) 42 p o t e n t i a l (B) 117- 118; ( L ) 165 power ( Z ) 135, 147, 150 s t a t i o n ( A ) 41, 42; ( Z ) 147

H y d r o e l e c t r i c i t y (A) 38- 44, 56; (MO) 23; (S) 76; ( T ) 108-109; ( 2 ) 169; (21) 208

Hydropower (B) 121; (M) 174, 183; (MO) 38; (S) 76, 82; ( T ) 93 , 112, 116, 118; ( Z ) 135, 152 g e n e r a t i o n ( T ) 93 p o t e n t i a l (MO) 38 resources (MO) 7

I l l u m i n a t i n g kerosene ( 2 ) 162

I m p l i c a t i o n s o f f o r e c a s t e d consumption (T) 112

I m p o r t e d p e t r o l e u m p r o - d u c t s ( T ) 93 s p i k e d ' c r u d e o i l ( 2 ) 154

I m p o r t s ( L ) 159; (S) 52; ( Z ) 139; (21) 187

Ind igenous renewab le energy ( T ) 100, 109

I n d u s t r i a l development (MO) 38 energy (B) 85 energy consumpt ion (MO) 20; (S) 58; ( 2 ) 157; ( Z I ) 186 energy demand ( B ) 85 energy expans ion ( B ) 11 9 p l a n t a t i o n (MO) 34 p r o d u c t i o n (A) 9, 51; ( Z I i 186

~ n d u s t r y ' ( ~ ) 85, 118; ( L ) 148; (MO) 15, 20; ( T ) 93, 97; ( Z ) 150; ( Z I )

roundn nuts (M) 173, 178

188 I n s t i t u t i o n a l (MO) 15;

~ e a v ~ ' i ; e l o i l (S) 61 ; ( Z ) 157, 162

Household consumption ( Z ) 141 demand (A) 15, 51, 54; (B) 73-75; ( L ) 140, 156; (M) 175 e 1 e c t r i f i c a t : o n ( Z ) 150 E x p e n d i t u r e Survey (B) 78, 80, 81

(S) 67 energy demand ( B ) 86; ( L ) 146

I r o n (MO) 20; ( Z I ) 186 o r e (S) 55

J e t A-1 ( 2 ) 162 J e t - t u r b o (B) 86 , 88 J u l b e r n a r d i a s p e c i e s ( 2 )

147

K a r i b a complex ( Z I ) 204

Kenya (B) 78, 82 , 88; (S) 76; ( T ) 101, 109, 117; ( Z I ) 188

Kerosene (A) 18, 19, 20, 54; (B) 78-79; ( L ) 140, 152; (S) 66, 78; ( T ) 94; (2) 138, 141

Kweneng Rura l Development A s s o c i a t i o n (B) 97, 98

L a b o u r - i n t e n s i v e i n v e s t - ment (21) 186

Land p o t e n t i a l ( L ) 156 Lands a t s a t e l l i t e (MO)

28 Lamps (S) 62 Law on F o r e i g n I n v e s t m e n t

(A) 8 L e s o t h o A g r i c u l t u r a l

S e c t o r A n a l y s i s (LASA) ( L ) 156 renewab le enersv t e c h n o l o g y p r o j e c t ( L ) 153

i i g h t f u e l o i l ( 2 ) 157 g a s o l i n e ( Z ) 157 p e t r o l e u m ( Z ) 157

L i q u i d energy ( T ) 95 f u e l s ( T ) 106

L i q u o r s o l i d s ( S ) 58 L i v e s t o c k ( 8 ) 67, 71, 72,

76, 82 , 83, 111; ( L ) 147

L o b a t s e (B) 73, 80, 85, 9 7

~ o b i t o ' (A) 15 L o c a l w a t e r t a b l e s ( Z I )

196 Loss due t o Chitemene

A g r i c u l t u r e ( 2 ) 147 Luanda (A) 15, 17, 18, 38 Lubango (A) 15, 17, 42 i u b e o i l r e c y c l i n g p l a n t

( Z ) 164 L u b r i c a n t b l e n d i n g u n i t

( T ) 93 Lusaka ( L ) 135, 146

Macro-economic con- s t r a i n t s ( B ) 82

Maize ( A ) 14; ( B ) 83; (M) 173, 178; ( T ) 104, 106 husks (i) 116 s t a l k s (M) 174

M a n u f a c t u r i n g (T) 91; ( Z ) 139; ( 2 1 ) 175, 186, 188 a c t i v i t i e s ( Z I ) 190 i n d u s t r y (21) 186

Maseru ( L ) 138 Meat ( B ) 62; (S) 52 M e l i a azedach ( B ) 152 Meta l l u r g i c a l processes

( Z ) 152 M e t a l

p r o c e s s i n g i n d u s t r i e s ( Z I ) 187 works ( B ) 85

Yethane (T) 108 Yethanol ( T ) 95 4 i g r a n t s ( L ) 140 4 i g r a t i o n ( Z ) 136; ( Z I ) 189 l i l l e t (B) 83; ( Z ) 147 vl ineral

p o t e n t i a l (MO) 7 l i n e r a l s ( Z ) 164; ( Z I ) 187

M a r k e t i n g Board ( Z I ) 188

4 i n i n g - l B ) 71, 85 , 100; ( L ) 146, 148; ( Z ) 138, 150, 152, 157, 162; ( Z ) 175, 178, 186 i n d u s t r y ( Z I ) 187

l i n i s t r y o f A g r i c u l t u r e (A) 20 o f M i n e r a l Resources and Water A f f a i r s (MMRWA) (B) 66 o f Pet ro leum (A) 56 o f P l a n n i n g (A) 10

l iombo woodland ( Z I ) 193; ( Z ) 149

lopane woodland (B) 67 l ozamb~aue N a t i o n a l Hvdro-

carbon ~ n t e r p r i s k (MO) 40

lound c u l t i v a t i o n (Z) 135 IPLA (Movimento Popu lar

p a r a a L i b e r i a c a o de Ango la) ( A ) 7 , 9 , 13, 56

I u l t i p u r p o s e t r e e s (T) 117

energy b a l a n c e ( L ) 148 energy p l a n ( L ) 160 energy s t r a t e g y (MO) 42

i a t u r a l f o r e s t s (S) 74 gas (A) 49, 55; (M) 180; (MO) 34; (S) 78; ( T ) 94, 106, 108, 110, 112, 114, 118 r e s o u r c e s ( A ) 12. 55

v e g e t a t i o n r e s o u r c e s ( S ) 74 woodlands ( Z I ) 196 woody v e g e t a t i o n (B) 95

lew and Renewable Sources o f Energy (NRSE) (A) 57

lew energy sources (B) 116, 121 e n e r g y s u p p l i e s (B) ! ! l s 116; (M) 181, 184

i i c k e l (B) 71, 85 , 100; ( Z I ) 187

l i t r o g e n ( T ) 118; ( Z ) 152 f e r t i l i z e r o r o d u c t i o n . .

ton-commercial e n e r g y consumpt ion (M) 175; (S) 55, 58 f u e l s ( T ) 106 ores i n d u s t r y ( Z ) 138

Non-household commercial e n e r g y ( Z ) 165

Non-wood energy sources ( Z ) 136

Oil (MO) 7 , 13, 15, 40-44; (S) 51, 66, 67, 78, 82; ( T ) 91, 110, 116; ( Z ) 154, 165; ( Z I ) 196

- f i r e d s t a t i o n s ( T ) 93, 109 i m p o r t s (M) 175 l u b r i c a n t s (Z) 164 r e f i n e r i e s (A) 56; ( L ) 159; (MO) 40

O t h e r c o n v e n t i o n a l f u e l s (A) 49, 55; ( L ) 148, 151 i n d u s t r i e s ( Z I ) 188

O v e r g r a z i n g (B) 111; (S) 5 2

Palm k e r n e l s (A) 9 Pande g a s f i e l d (MO) 40 P a r a f f i n ( L ) 161; (S) 66;

( T ) 94; ( Z I ) 180-181, 183. 185. 202. 204

s t o b e i s ) ' 6 5 P a r e s t a t a l ( Z ) 154

m i n i n g company ( Z ) 1 5 7

Pass ive s o l a r des ign (B) 112

P a s t u r e improvement ( S ) 55 P e o p l e ' s Shops (A) 8-9 Petro-chemical/fertilizer

i n d u s t r i e s ( T ) 114 Pet ro leum ( S ) 61 ; ( T ) 108;

( Z ) 154; ( Z I ) 180, 185, 199, 202, 209

-based f u e l o r e l e c - t r i c i t y (Z!) 185, 189, 193, 199 demand ( Z ) 157 i m o o r t s ( Z ) 150

p i n e cones ( S ) 74 Pinus ( L ) 158 Pinus h a l i o e n s i s ( L ) 158 P ~ n u s r a d i a t a ( L ) ' 1 5 8 P i t mines ( Z I ) 199 P l a n t a t i o n f o r e s t r y ( T ) 101 P l a n t a t i o n s (S) 62 P o p u l a t i o n ( Z i ) 173

g r o w t h ( Z ) 138, 165 i n c r e a s e ( Z ) 146

P o t f i r i n s ( T ) 95 P o v e r t v ~ a t k ~ i n e Studv

( 6 ) 79, 81 Power- genera t ion ( Z I ) 178 Power kerosene ( Z I ) 204

systems (MO) 38 Premium q a s o l i n e ( Z ) 162 ~ r o c e s s i n ~ and s t o r a g e

l o s s e s ( Z ) 157 Prodbcer gas (S) 61; ( T )

93, 106; ( Z I ) 209 Propane gas ( T ) 108, 114 P r o s o p i s j u l i f l o r a (B) 99 P r o t e c t e d f o r e s t s ( Z ) 147 P r o t e c t i v e s i l v i c u l t u r e

measure (MO) 43 Pseudotsuga m e n z i e s i i ( L )

158 Pub1 i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n (T)

9 1 P u l p i n d u s t r y (S) 55, 61

m i l l (S) 58, 70; ( T ) 9 7

Pulses (B) 83

Q u a r r y i n g ( Z ) 138

R a i l l i n k (S) 76 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n (B) 86, 88 , 114, 119; ( T ) 106; ( Z I ) 189

Rai lway companies (MO) 24 R a i n f a l l (Z ) 147, ( Z I ) 193 Rand Monetary Area (S) 52 R e - a f f o r e s t a t i o n (S) 74;

( Z I ) 196 Real e s t a t e ( Z ) 139; ( Z I )

188 R e f i n e d p e t r o l e u m (A) 14,

20, 23, 49, 51 , 54, 56; (B) 73, 85, 88 , 110, 113; (M) 179, 182, 183 p e t r o l e u m p r o d u c t s ( 8 ) 81, 86, 104, 106, 114; ( L ) 148, 159, 174; (M) 179, 180, 182 p r o d u c t s ( Z I ) 202

R e f i n e r y (MO) 40; ( T ) 93, 114 c a p a c i t y and consump- t i o n ( Z ) 154

) consumption ( Z ) 157, 164 C3st ( Z ) 150 f o r used l u b r i c a n t s ( Z ) 164

Regiona l energy p l a n n i v g ( Z I ) 173 i n t e g r a t i o n ( Z ) 169

Renewable energy r e s o u r c e s (M) 177; (S) 82; ( T ) 109 n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s (MO) 3 0

R e s i d u a l f u e l (B) 106 011 (MO) 20, 23

R e t a i l ( Z ) 157 t r a d i n g ( T ) 91, 188

Rice (M) 173; ( T ) 106, 116 hdsks (T ) 1C4

Road t r a n s p o r t (B) 86, 88; ( L ) 160; (S ) 67; ( Z I ) 189 t r a n s p o r t f u e l s ( 21 ) 202

Robina pseudoacacia (B ) 99 Root mass (T ) 101 R o t a t i o n (T) 101 Rovuma Bas in (MC) 40 Rura l development areas (S)

6 2 d w e l l i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n ( Z ) 146 energy survey (21) 181 households ( 2 ) 141; ( Z I ) 178, 196 households energy con- sdmpt ion ( 2 1 ) 180 I n d u s t r i e s I n n o v a t i o n Cent re ( B ) 73 m i g r a t i o n ( 2 ) 135 p o p u l a t i o n ( Z I ) 173

SADCC: Enerov and Develoo- ment t Y 2 0 0 0 (MO) l', 8 , 38, 43, 44 t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l ans ( Z I ) 190

Sal i gna g r a n d i s (S) 72 SASOL s y n t h e t i c f u e l p l a n t s

( ~ j 159 Savanna (T ) 89, 101; ( 21 )

193 sawdust s t ove (S) 81 Saw m i l l i n g ( T ) 106 Schinus m o l l e (B ) 99 Se i smo log i ca l s t udy (MO) 40 S e m i - p r o l e t a r i a n i z a t i o n and

energy p o v e r t y ( B ) 82 Serv i ce s e c t o r (T ) 97 Sheep (T ) 89 S i s a l ( A ) 9 , 14 , 34; (T )

104, 116 Soc ia l s e r v i c e s (A ) 51 Softwoods (B) 97 S o i l chem is t r y ( Z I ) 196

e r o s i o n (A ) 36, 54 regime (Z ) 147

So la r cookers ( L ) 153; ( 2 ) 165

S t a t e M in i ng Company (MO) 15

steam-coal (MO) 35; ( Z I ) 199

Stee l (T ) 106; ( Z I ) 186, 199 i n d u s t r y (MO) 20

S t l g l e r ' s gorge (T ) 108 Stoves ( M O ) 43; (T ) 94 S t r i p mines (ZI) 199 Strychnos (MO) 28 Sudan (B) 78 Sugar (MO) 13; (S) 52, 58,

65; ( T ) 97, 104 cane (A) 9 , 14, 34, 36; (M) 173; ( S ) 78, 80 cane produced e thano l (MO) 40; ( Z I ) 202 e s t a t e s (S! 74 p r o d u c t i o n (MO) 40; (S) 67

Supply o f conven t i ona l energy (A) 36; ( R ) 75, 82, 119

Swamp (T ) 101 Swazi Na t i ona l Land ( S ) 52 Sweet po ta toes ( M ) 173

Tanesco (T ) 114 Tazama p i p e l i n e ( Z ) 154,

164, 169 Tea ( M ) 173, 176, 182; (T)

95, 97, 101, 11C T e x t i l e s ( Z I ) 186 Thermal electricity ( Z ) 152

gene ra t i ng p l a n t ( Z I ) 199 power (A) 56

-Dowered p l a n t ( Z I ) 204 ~ h i r d ' congress Economic

D i r e c t i v e s (MO) 42 Timber (MO) 28; (S) 55, 58,

8 0 ~ o b a c c o (A) 9, 14, 34; ( M )

173, 176, 178, 182, 184; ( T ) 110; ( Z I ) 186 c u r i n g ( T ) 95 Research Author1 t y (TRA) ( M ) 176

T o t a l Demand ( A ) 20; (B ) 75 p o ~ u l a t ~ o n ( L ) 138

ouri ism' ( L ) 146 T r a d i t i o n a l f u e l s (T ) 91

d i s t i l l a t i o n ( B ) 111 Transpo r t (B ) 1 1 3 , ' l i 8 ; ( M ) energy ( A ) 57; (B) 114; 183; (MO) 15; (S) 66; (M) 177; (S) 80; ( T ) (T) 91-93, 100, 106, 109; ( 2 ) 135 110; ( Z ) 138, 139, 157; power ( E ) 111, 114; (S) ( Z I ) 178, 180, 185, 82 188, 189

Sonangol ( A ) 10, 44 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n (MO) 23; ( Z I ) Sorghum 202

beer- brewing (B) 72, 78, energy ( B ) 86 112; ( M ) 175 energy demand (B ) 86 s t o v e r s !M) 178 Tree p l a n t i n g p r o j e c t s ( T )

South A f r i c a (B) 78; (MO) 38; 109 (S ) 51, 82 T r i c h i l i a - S c h l e r o c a r y a -

South A f r i c a n Customs Union Vapaca (MO) 28 ( 5 ) 52 T r o p ~ c a l h i g h f o r e s t s (T)

Spare p a r t s ( A ) 52 101 Spiked crude o i l ( 2 ) 154

r a i n f o r e s t (21) 193 Turb ine p i a q t s ( Z ) 147

thermal power (A) 4i Turb ines (T ) 108

U n i t e d Na t i ons Women and Development P r o j e c t (S) 64, 80 , 81 , 82

Urban demand (A) 15-19, 51, 56; (B) 72, 79 domest ic energy consumption (MO) 20; (S ) 65; (T ) 112; ( S ) 8 1 energy (MO) 43 fuelwood problem ( Z I ) 209 household demand (B) . . 81; ( L ) 148, 153; (M) 176; (Z) 141; ( Z I ) 183

U r b a n i z a t i o n (B) 75, 82 ; (Z ) 136, 165

Urban m i g r a t i o n ( Z ) 135 p o p u l a t i o n ( L ) 138; ( Z ) 136: (21) 173

u S A I D . ~ u r a l Secto; Grant (B ) 66, 98; ( L ) 153

UNERG (B) 66, 77

Vege ta t i on ( Z I ) 193

Waste wood (S) 70 Water

p r o v i s i o n ( 2 ) 139 t r a n s p o r t (T ) 106

W a t t l e ( S ) 62 Wheat (A ) 14 Wholesale t r a d i n g (T) 91 Wind energy ( B ) 114

e r o s i o n (M) 184 Dower (B) 111

wood I M O ) ? 5 , ' 1 8 , 20, 43; (S ) 51 , 52, 58, 62, 67, 70, 80; (T ) 95, 101; ( Z ) 135, 138; ( Z I ) 178, 183, 192, ! 96 energy (T) 94, 112, 117

- f i r e d s t a t i o n s (T) 93 f u e l (T ) 116, 1 1 7 , ( 2 ) 136, 139, 146-147, 165; (21) 189, 196 f u e l s toves (T ) 109 l a n d (MO) 30; (T) 89, 101, 117; ( 2 ) 144, 147 l a n d l o s s ( 2 ) 144

Woodlands ( Z I ) 193, 196 Woodiot developwents i Z I )

196 Wood p u l p (S) 52, 58

resources (MD) 28 supp l y ( S ) 70, ( Z i ) 193 y a r d (S) 61

Woody biornass ( E ) 95, 121; ( T ) 100- 101

Zambezi basin (ZI) 199 Zambia Electricity Supply

Corporation (ZESCO) (2) 150 National Energy Ltd. (ZNEL) (Z) 154, 157

Zambia's Consolidated Copper Mines (ZCCM) (Z) 152, 157

Zambia Third National Development Plan 1979- 83 (Z) 164

ZCCM (Zambia's Consolidated Copper Mines) (Z) 152, 157

ZESCO (Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation) (Z) 150

ZNEL (Zambia Natlonal Energy Ltd.) (Z) 154, 157

ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN AFRICA is a series of new titles published jointly by the Beijer Institute and the Scandinavian Institute of African Studies.

The Beijer Institute (The International Institute for Energy and Human Ecology), a daughter institution of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, is concerned with energy and the human environment. Among its research activities the Institute has focussed its interests on a series of energy planning studies in African countries, highlighting the crucial importance of fuelwood supply and demand, issues of rural development and interactions between the traditional and modern sectors of the economy.

The Scandinavian Institute of African Studies (SIAS) promotes African studies among scholars in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden). It is located in Uppsala and financed through government funds from the Nordic countries. SIAS encourages and initiates research on and instruction about development issues in Africa; disseminates information about current African affairs through conferences, seminars and lectures as we11 as by publications. SIAS has the only library in the Nordic countries specializing on modern Africa.

Many developing countries, not least in Africa, have been hard h ~ t by thedouble "energy crisis" of threatened fuelwood supply and the increasing burden of oil imports. During the last decade energy provision has become a vitally important issue so that energy is now regarded as a basic factor of production ranking in impctrtance with the classical components: land, labour and capital. Careful and innovative energy planning has become a necessity for successful development.

The Beijer Institute's work in Kenya and in the nine countries of the Southern African Development Co-ordination Conference (SADCC) has been qnderta- ken jointly with Kenya's Ministry of Energy and SADCC's Energy Sector respectively. This has led to a number of new policy initiatives. We hope that this experience from Southern and Eastern Africa will prove useful in a wider context.

The first volumes of this new series report on the methodology and findings of the Kenyan and SADCC studies. Other titles will follow. The publication of the series "Energy, Environment and Development in Africa" is sponsored by the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA).

lSSN 0281-8515 ISBN 91 -7106-231-9

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