energy climate era

Lecture Notes Prepared by Dr. LaRae M. Donnellan, School of Journalism & Graphic Communication, Florida A&M University

Thomas FriedmanHot, Flat, and Crowded


Industrial Revolution ◦ 18th century◦ CO2 fuels (coal, oil, natural gas)

◦ 280 ppm Transportation Revolution

◦ 20th century◦ Urbanization/suburbanization◦ 2007, 384 ppm◦ 2009, 390.18 ppm


NASA GISS (i.e. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/)


PCs – Individuals as authors Internet/WWW/browsers Work flow revolution

What’s happened?◦ People rise out of poverty.◦ They consume more.◦ They demand more energy.


1950: 2.5 billion Today: 6.7 billion people 2050: 9.2 billion people

Who? Where? ◦ Young people◦ Less-developed countries◦ Cities (unprepared for them)


1. Growing demand for scarcer resources

2. Petrodictators getting richer3. Disruptive climate change4. Energy poverty (electricity

haves & have-nots)5. Rapidly accelerating

biodiversity loss


Global energy consumption grew 5% per year from 1951-1970.◦ Post-World War II growth in

U.S., Europe, Japan

2001-2020◦ China, India, other developing

countries consuming more.◦ Infrastructure is energy-intensive.


1973, 1980, 1990◦ Wars, revolution in Middle East◦ Offset by “shock absorbers”

Spare crude oil Spare refining capacity Spare oil product inventory

2004◦ Sudden leap in demand from China;

no shock absorbers 2008 – skyrocketed prices


2.4 billion people living on $2 or less per day.◦ Millions striving for/getting

better lives.◦ Creates enormous demand

for resources. Why law of supply & demand

didn’t work.◦ Subsidies for energy & food

kept prices artificially low.


We exported our lifestyle (“affluenza”).◦ 2-3x as many living our lifestyle

by 2050.◦ Europe & Japan middle class

consume less.


Most capitalistic country?◦ Communism & socialism were

systems of restraint.◦ Urbanization plan changed things. ◦ Per capita consumption is 11x less

than in U.S., but newly urbanized Chinese will consume 3 ½ x what rural Chinese will consume.

Missing manhole covers◦ What does that mean?


Lecturing others won’t work. Redefine middle class

lifestyle.◦ Invent sustainability tools &

spread know-how. Eliminate concept of waste.

◦ Stop “downcycling.”◦ Make everything reusable or

biodegradable.


Massive transfer of wealth◦ From energy-consuming countries

to energy-producing countries Implications

◦ Gives power & money to conservative hardliners.

◦ Finances antidemocratic trends.◦ Fuels ugly energy scramble.◦ Funds both sides of the war on

terror.


Rise in Saudi fundamentalist Salafi “desert” Islam.◦ Women’s rights◦ Performing arts◦ Education funding

Rise in revolutionary Shiite Islam from Iran.


“As the price of oil goes up, the pace of freedom goes down; and as the price of oil goes down, the pace of freedom goes up.”

Countries◦ Bahrain & Lebanon 1st to run out.◦ Angola, Nigeria, Iran, Russia,

Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Qatar, Indonesia, Gabon, Egypt, Burma


Thomas Friedman, “The First Law of Petropolitics,” Foreign Affairs 154 (May-June 2006): pp. 28-36.


Taxation effect◦ Relieves social pressures◦ No taxation or representation

Spending effect◦ Greater patronage, less demand

for democracy Group formation effect

◦ Prevents independent groups


Repression effect◦ More police, security forces

Antimodernization effect◦ Hire others; women held back


We still need petroleum-based products (plastics, fertilizers).

We need plentiful renewable energy sources◦ Reduce global demand for oil◦ Oil-rich states will have to diversify

their economies Second Law of Petropolitics

◦ Effective policy realists must be environmentalists.


IPCC Report:◦ Global warming IS REAL.

Increase in temperature since 1950 caused by humans.

Without dramatic reduction in CO2 by 2012, climate change may bring “abrupt or irreversible” effects.

◦ Hurricane Katrina fed by warmer Gulf waters.

“Avoid the unmanageable & manage the unavoidable.”


Philosophical question◦ Are hurricanes acts of god …

or man?◦ Are warm winter days a gift …

or a price we’re paying?


Things are worse than predicted. ◦ “Chicken Little” syndrome?

Hard to grasp exponential change (tipping points)

Three stages of skepticism◦ You’re wrong; I can prove it.◦ You’re right, but who cares?◦ It’s too late to do anything.

Wrong thinking


“Global warming” is a misnomer.◦ Not uniform or gradual.◦ Unusual weather events

occurring rapidly. Need for “thematic,” not just

“episodic” stories.◦ Meteorologists are the key.


Access to electricity is essential to compete, connect, collaborate.

Creating a world of energy haves and have-nots.


1 of 4 don’t have electricity.◦ Dark nights for 1.6 billion people.◦ 75% of Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding

South Africa)◦ 50% of South Asia (90% of rural)

Indoor air pollution◦ 1.6 million deaths/year

Ineffective utilities◦ Caused by misgovernance and/or war◦ Perpetuates social inequality


Being energy-poor is not what it used to be.◦ Hot world: more punishing.◦ Flat world: can’t compete.◦ Crowded world: can’t thrive.

The poor will suffer most. We need to tap into their

creativity & innovation.◦ Get balance between localization

& globalization.


Deforestation ◦ Losing an acre/second

Species disappearing

Biodiversity tipping point?◦ 2006 loss of the river dolphin –

first GENUS loss in 50 years


We’re causing the flood & must save species by creating “arks.”◦ One species goes extinct every

20 minutes.◦ Natural cures, industrial

materials, biological insights? Ecosystem services

◦ Provide fresh water, filter pollutants, provide breeding grounds, buffer storms, take in CO2, etc.


Humans are the only species that no animal or plant depends on for survival.◦ We need the web of life to survive –

it doesn’t need us. Biodiversity is about saving

humanity.◦ “Later is over.”◦ We’d better start saving now!


Sought peace & security, economic development, human rights.

Ignored environmental imperative.◦ Kyoto Protocol in 1997

Can’t have one without the other.


What’s Next? What do you think needs to be done? What are YOU willing to do?

To contact your elected officials, go to:http://www.usa.gov/Contact/Elected.shtml

energy climate era

Education

global energy

energy foodkept prices

oil oilrich states

global demand

price of oil goesdown

taxation effect

fuels ugly energy scramble

hot world