energy, climate change & environment: 2016 insights · a central role for demand-side energy...
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© OECD/IEA, 2016
Energy, Climate Change & Environment: 2016 Insights
Japan Pavilion November 15, 2016
Christina Hood Head of Unit, Environment and Climate Change International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA, 2016
The IEA supports governments around the world in their clean energy transition
through real-world SOLUTIONS backed by ANALYSIS built on DATA
© OECD/IEA, 2016
Table of Contents
1. Will COP21 transform the energy sector?
2. Coal and gas power in the 2°C Scenario and reaching the “well-below-2°C” goal
3. The role of moderate carbon prices in electricity sector decarbonisation
4. Renewables surge after COP21
5. A central role for demand-side energy efficiency and other demand-side actions to reduce emissions
6. Measures beyond pricing and regulation to motivate state-owned enterprises and private businesses
7. Enhancing energy sector resilience to climate change: government action and mobilising investment
8. Tracking tools to support energy sector transformation
9. Energy and emissions data
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
6DS2DS
Staying well below 2oC degrees: How Paris has changed the energy challenge
Paris Agreement: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…”
0
10
20
30
40
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
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Staying well below 2oC degrees: How Paris has changed the energy challenge
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Gt C
O2
Other transformationAgriculturePowerBuildingsTransportIndustry
Getting well below 2oC means tackling the emissions that remain in the 2DS
Paris Agreement: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…”
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Cumulative CO2 emissions over 2015-2050 under the 2DS
2%
4%
8%
24%
29%
33%
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Agriculture
Other transformation
Buildings
Transport
Power
Industry
GtCO2
Industry, power and transport sectors dominate
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Emissions in 2050: Sub-sector breakdown of industry and transport
Pulp and paper 2%
Aluminum 4%
Other industries 18%
Iron and steel 20%
Cement 25%
Chemicals and petrochemicals
31%
Rail 1%
Aviation 11%
Shipping 14%
Light-duty vehicles
36%
Heavy-duty vehicles
38%
Transport 6 300 Mt
Industry 6 721 Mt
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How are we doing in reducing the carbon intensity of our energy system?
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20
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60
80
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120
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Carb
on in
tens
ity (1
990
= 10
0)
Historical 2DS
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
% c
hang
e
Annual % change in the ESCII, 2010-14
As of 2014, the world’s energy supply was 1.1% more carbon intensive than it was in 1990
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Reducing emissions from incumbent fossil fuel facilities: a critical element of low-carbon scenarios
AAddressing coal and gas plant emissions will be important to reduce global emissions
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Unabated coal Abated coal
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
TWh
Unabated gas Abated gas
Coal Gas
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800
1 000
2015 2025 2035 2045
g CO
2/kW
h
SUBCR
SUPERC
ULTRSC
IGCC
CO2 Intensity (2DS)
Role of innovation: ‘High efficient-low emissions’?
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0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2015 2025 2035 2045
g CO
2/kW
h
SUBCR
SUPERC
ULTRSC
IGCC
CO2 Intensity (2DS)
Role of innovation: ‘High efficient-low emissions’?
Need CCS to make coal ‘low-carbon’
ULTRSC w/avg. CCS
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Role of moderate carbon prices
Real-world carbon price expectations (USD 15/tCO2 – 40/tCO2 in 2030) are significantly lower than those consistent with 2°C scenarios (USD 100/tCO2 in 2030) “Moderate” carbon prices still help:
support dispatch of low-carbon generation options reduce need for subsidies for low-carbon investment favor retirement of the most carbon-intensive plants
Well integrated packages of policies are needed – not carbon pricing alone (auctions, EE policies, etc.)
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Renewables post-COP21
COP21 INDCs generated momentum for renewables development and deployment worldwide
0
50
100
150
200
250
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Annu
al ad
dition
s (GW
)
Eurasia
Sub-Saharan Africa
MENA
Asia and Pacific
China
Europe
Latin America
North America
MTRMR 2016 (main case)
MTRMR 2015 (main case)
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Demand-side levers (decomposition analysis IEA member countries)
Greater use of energy efficiency, structural change, energy conservation and other demand-side levers is needed to reduce emissions
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
GtC
O2
Structure effect
Efficiency effect
Cumulative savings since 2000: EE 13.2 GtCO2, Structure 5.4 GtCO2
Annual savings in 2015: - EE 1.6 GtCO2 - Structure 0.6 GtCO2
Actual emissions
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SOEs: Among ‘Top 10’ energy GHG emitting ‘countries’
Sources: CO2 from Fuel Combustion (IEA, 2015); company annual reports, industry association reports, Carbon Disclosure Project country reports, CARMA database, F2000 database and others.
Selected 50 SOEs would, by themselves, constitute the third largest emitting country
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
China USA EU28 India RussianFederation
Japan Germany Korea Canada IslamicRep. of Iran
Saudi Arabia Select 50 SOEs
Emis
sion
s (M
t CO
2)
Looking beyond the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ to the ‘who’: tailoring solutions to motivate state-owned enterprises
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Energy sector resilience: government is a key actor
1. Create enabling frameworks/incentives to facilitate/to prompt resilience-building by business
… but much more: 2. Awareness raising and modelling 3. Service provider (e.g. climate services, data) 4. Managing “own-assets” (utilities, etc.) 5. Financing and facilitating investments 6. Inter-governmental coordination: domestic and
international
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Energy resilience effort needs to adapt to energy sector of the ‘future’
Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
GGlobal electricity generation mix in the 2DS, 2013-2050
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Tracking and metrics
Source: IEA World Energy Investment 2016
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Energy and emissions data
I. Interregional comparisons: • CO2
• ESCII • CO2/capita • TPES/GDP
II. Regional data and indicators: three graphs Ten global regions and world region for 1990-2014 and 2DS (2025 and 2050) Example: Southeast Asia region
CO2 emissions by fuel and sector, 2014 Energy sector-wide metrics Electricity sub-sector metrics
