empirical understanding of traffic data influencing roadway pm 2.5 emission estimate

27
Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5 Emission Estimate NSF-UC 2012-2013 Academic-Year REU Program Faculty Mentor Heng Wei, Ph.D., P.E. Associate Professor Director, ART-Engines Lab School of Advanced Structures University of Cincinnati GRA Mentors Mr. Zhuo Yao Mr. Hao Liu Mr. Qingyi Ai Undergraduate Researchers Mr. Zachary Johnson (Sr. M.E.) Mr. Charles Justin Cox (Sr. E.E.)

Upload: belva

Post on 06-Jan-2016

18 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5 Emission Estimate. NSF-UC 2012-2013 Academic-Year REU Program. GRA Mentors. Faculty Mentor. Undergraduate Researchers. Heng Wei, Ph.D., P.E. Associate Professor Director, ART-Engines Lab School of Advanced Structures - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM2.5 Emission Estimate

NSF-UC 2012-2013 Academic-Year REU Program

Faculty Mentor

Heng Wei, Ph.D., P.E.Associate Professor Director, ART-Engines LabSchool of Advanced StructuresUniversity of Cincinnati

GRA Mentors

Mr. Zhuo YaoMr. Hao LiuMr. Qingyi Ai

Undergraduate Researchers

Mr. Zachary Johnson (Sr. M.E.)Mr. Charles Justin Cox (Sr. E.E.)

Page 2: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

2

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results- Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 3: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

3

What is PM2.5?

Background[1]

Page 4: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

4

PM2.5, Current Models & MethodsPM2.5

β€’ Long term vs short term effects

Complexity of modeling pollutantsβ€’ Number of models (CALINE4,CAL3QHC,etc.)β€’ Rapidly changing traffic conditionsβ€’ Difficulty getting accurate traffic data into MOVES

Modeling methods usedβ€’ Vehicle Video-Capture Data Collector (VEVID)β€’ Rapid Traffic Emission and Energy Consumption

Analysis (REMCAN)β€’ Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES)

Background

Page 5: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

5

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results- Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 6: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

Problem Statementβ€’ Regional Air Quality Index Concernsβ€’ Cincinnati and PM2.5

β€’ Contribution of On-road Transportation Activity to PM2.5 Emission:

6Problem Statement

Current Location

[2]

Page 7: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

7

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results - Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 8: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

Goals & Objectives

Goal:β€’ Gain insights on how dynamic traffic operating conditions

affect the PM2.5 emission estimation;

Objectives:

β€’ Design and plan to collect traffic and PM2.5;

β€’ Model data using VEVID, and REMCAN then compare results to the EPA’s MOVES model.

β€’ Develop regression model to predict the emission of PM2.5;

4

Goals & Objectives

Page 9: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

9

Design and Plan of Field Data Collection

Goals & Objectives

Page 10: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

10

Page 11: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

11

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results - Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 12: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

12

Methodology

Methodology

Page 13: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

13

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results - Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 14: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

14

Data Attained Through Field Collection

Results: PM2.5 Results

Page 15: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

15

Results: PM2.5 Results

Data Attained Through MOVES

Page 16: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

16

MOVES and Field Data Comparison

Results: PM2.5 Results

Page 17: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

17

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results - Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 18: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

Vehicle Traffic on October 3rd and October 9th

18Results: Field Data

Page 19: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

19

Pollutant Emissions and Meteorological Results

Results: Field Data

Arrow direction denotes the direction in which wind is moving.

90 Degrees: North180 Degrees: West270 Degrees: South0/360 Degrees: East

Page 20: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

20

Operating Mode Distribution Results

Results: Field Data

[2]

𝑉𝑆𝑃 =v x [1.1a + 9.81 x grade(%)+ 0.132]+ 0.000302 x v3

Cars

VSP = v x [a + 9.81 x grade(%) + 0.09199] + 0.000169 x v3

Trucks

Page 21: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

21

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results- Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 22: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

22

Regression Modeling

PM2.5 = intercept+ X1*All Vehicles + X2*Cars + X3*Trucks + X4*WindSpeed(mph) + X5*Outside Temperature (F) +X6*Wind + Direction in Radians + X7*Relative Humidity + X8*Wind Density (kg/m3).

Basic Regression Equation Example

Our Regression Equation Example

Results: Regression Modeling

Page 23: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

23

Results: Regression Modeling

Comparing Linear, Quadratic, and Polynomial Linearization Results

𝒀 (π’Žπ’Šπ’„π’“π’π’ˆπ’“π’‚π’Žπ’”π’π’‡ π‘·π‘΄πŸ .πŸ“)=0.054βˆ’0.000015βˆ— 𝐴𝑙𝑙 h𝑉𝑒 𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑠+0.000016βˆ—πΆπ‘Žπ‘Ÿπ‘ +0.000015βˆ—π‘‡π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘˜π‘ βˆ’0.0000267βˆ—π‘Šπ‘–π‘›π‘‘π‘†π‘π‘’π‘’π‘‘ ( hπ‘šπ‘ )βˆ’0.000106βˆ—π‘‚π‘’π‘‘π‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘‡π‘’π‘šπ‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘’ (𝐹 )βˆ’0.000163βˆ—π‘Šπ‘–π‘›π‘‘π·π‘–π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘›π‘–π‘›π‘…π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘Žπ‘›π‘ βˆ’6.127βˆ—π‘…π‘’π‘™π‘Žπ‘‘π‘–π‘£π‘’π»π‘’π‘šπ‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘‘π‘¦βˆ’0.0403βˆ—π‘Šπ‘–π‘›π‘‘π·π‘’π‘›π‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘¦ (π‘˜π‘”π‘š3 )Variable P-ValueAll Vehicles 0.72

Cars 0.72

Trucks 0.68

Wind Speed 0.36

Outside Temperature (Β°F) 0.24

Wind Direction (radians) 0.10

Relative Humidity 0.08

Wind Density (kg/m3)  0.45

Regression Type R-squared Terms

Linear

Quadratic

Polynomial

0.107

0.59

0.863

8

45

165

Page 24: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

24

BackgroundProblem StatementGoals and ObjectivesMethodologyResults

- PM2.5 Results- Field Data- Regression Modeling

Conclusions

Page 25: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

25

Conclusions

– Our method of PM2.5 capture successfully models an increase in PM2.5 pollutants as traffic increases.

– Our field results are 6 orders of magnitude (106) less than MOVES results. MOVES measures along 1 mile, while our data is collected at one point.

– Organic Carbon (hydrocarbons) accounts for the greatest of the PM2.5 pollutants.

– Vehicle speeds above 50mph are placed into the same Operating Mode and therefore reducing accuracy with higher speeds.Conclusions

Page 26: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

26

Citations

1. β€œBasic Information” EPA. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d. Web. 03 Dec. 2012. http://www.epa.gov/pm/basic.html.

2. "Air Quality Index Forecasts." Air Quality Index Forecasts. N.p., n.d. Web. 06 Dec. 2012.

3. Yao, Zhuo, Heng Wei, Tao Ma, Qingyi Ai, and Hao Liu. Developing Operating Mode Distribution Inputs for MOVES Using Computer. Tech. no. 13-4899. N.p.: n.p., n.d. Web. 3 Dec. 2012.

Page 27: Empirical Understanding of Traffic Data Influencing Roadway PM 2.5  Emission Estimate

Thankyou.

Dr.HengWeiZhuoYaoHaoLiuQingyiAiKristenStromingerDr.UrmilaGhiaDr.KirtiGhiaDr.DariaNarmoneva …and to the REU-program